Mythos vs Reality

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1:19The produce section is bursting with pineapples, mangoes, and kiwis at their juiciest. Grill up fresh seafood paired with tropical fruit marinades or grab and enjoy the spicy Hawaiian pizza, huli huli chicken and more. Finish with a sweet slice of mango yuzu chantilly cake. Savor the tropics and save at Whole Foods Market. Wake up to money from BBC Five Live. Hello, welcome. It is wake up to money. We know the energy shock from Iran is going to hit the UK hard, but it's going to hit us the hardest of the world's advanced economies, according to the International Monetary Fund. So we'll look at what that really means when it plays out here and further afield.

2:02Elsewhere, the boss of the world's biggest bank, J.P. Morgan, and that's Jamie Dimon, who's in charge there, has become the latest big hitter to express concerns about this new AI engine from Anthropic. Are banks right to be worried? Is it really a cyber risk like no other? Also, we'll look at the impact of the disruption around the Strait of Humboldt on the people who work on the ships that usually pass through the region every day. And who are you? I'm Batman. One of this year's biggest upcoming video game releases, Lego Batman Legacy of the Dark Knight, made by TT Games from Cheshire. We'll find out what's in store for the UK video gaming industry as they gather for the London Games Festival.

2:46Wake Up to Money with Sean Farrington. Good morning to you. Wake Up To Money on BBC 5 Live on this Wednesday morning, the 15th of April. We're at just after five o 'clock. Your thoughts on all we're discussing today? Have you got yourself into the world of AI? Have you got your favourite chatbots or agents? Are you using it at work? Has something actually helped you? Is there something you're playing around with with it? Is there an area of it that you're particularly concerned with as well? It can be one of those areas when something so new, often quite fascinating, you find yourself getting into rabbit holes of what the future of the world might be next.

3:26There's lots out there wanting to tell us what their tools can do for this, that and the other, and I wonder if any of them have provided any use for you at all. Are you expecting them to change the way you work? We're going to be talking a lot more later on about the latest development. Back in the day, we'd have been excited about the next Windows software software for our PCs, whether that went from Windows 95, Windows Vista, Windows 10, Windows 11 these days. But of course, all the technology companies are producing this kind of stuff. If it's Apple and its new software systems, what the latest Android might be.

4:03And now we've got the world of AI chatbots. There's new engines behind them, new big brains of artificial intelligence that are doing newer things and faster things and stronger things. all the time. And these latest developments from this company, Anthropic, have seemed to have got a few people wondering what it means for cybersecurity. Some question marks being raised by Anthropic themselves. They've had to say to some other companies around the world, look, before we actually release this stuff, you might want to check that all your systems are safe on it because we think this new software, this new way of powering artificial intelligence is able to hack into systems in a bit of a different way and maybe a faster way and a more intelligent way than ever before.

4:50So we'll talk into that. It might be something that has crossed your mind. 85058, cybersecurity and all that. I've got Emma Thackery with me, founder of the beverage brand Hip Pop. Emma, very good morning. Thanks for joining us in the studio this morning. Morning, Sian. Cybersecurity is that one that's on your extended list list when you have so many things to worry about running a business is data protection and the systems you use it must be with online businesses as well these days yeah it absolutely has to be on our radar but you're right it's just another thing another thing in that long list which probably we weren't even going to get to as we talk about the state of the the british economy and confidence and how you grow and this report that's out this morning we'll get into that very shortly but great to have you with us got george godba with us as well this morning fund manager at Polar Capital.

5:42George, good morning to you. Good morning, Sean. Did this one, when we talk about artificial intelligence and the changes, does this latest talk, you don't raise your eyebrows anymore, does it take a little bit more each time to get people's attention when there's a development in the world of AI? Yeah, for myself, I've been absolutely astounded by what we've been able to achieve with the new models and the changes that all sort of came out in February. It's very, very exciting. I think there's going to be some huge benefits. But in terms of the one that you referenced, the Mythos model and its ability to sort of wreak havoc, we've certainly had to put in some safeguards and some of the add-in functions.

6:23You know, we're a little bit reticent to launch because it can just launch absolute havoc on your desktop. You know, my head of IT said to me, you get a message saying, don't worry, I've cleaned up your files. And by that, it means it's deleted everything. So, yeah, lots of exciting developments, but one to certainly sort of move forward with caution. Yeah, and so we'll have a little bit of a focus on cybersecurity protection of data and systems. We've seen a few crashes over the years, haven't we, recently, whether it's been at some of our supermarkets, parts of the NHS, whatever that might be, that when these systems are accessed and hacked and brought down temporarily, they can cause havoc, as George puts it there.

7:02So more to come on that later in the show. I'd be fascinated to hear your experiences in your workplaces about what you're doing around all this and how you acted personally with it as well. Are you chucking yourself and your own personal data at all of this stuff or are you a little bit reticent? Let's get on to what is making the front page headlines of lots of the papers this morning is the state of the UK economy, the prospects for the global economy because of the war in Iran. I know it's something we talk about every day but there's been this very important report from the International Monetary Fund, which is 191 member countries all around the world, and they all get together and try and figure out how to stabilise the global economy.

7:45This IMF gives advice, gives financial support sometimes to countries around the world as well about their economic situation. And the latest one, George, people often will look at what the extreme scenarios are, And in this one, it's threats of a global recession if, for example, the oil price stays well above$100 a barrel in one of the scenarios. And something that doesn't happen too often, the IMF says. I mean, high oil prices tend to be sort of quite self-correcting for the economy or the global economy because we just can't sustain them. Once you get to a certain level, you get severe impacts on the economy.

8:27and so economic activity naturally slows quite dramatically and that sort of reduces demand for oil. So it's one of the, they looked at a range of scenarios with their assumptions yesterday. I think, thankfully, news flow is moving in the right direction at the moment, but frankly, who knows? Who knows indeed. Emma, it's interesting just seeing the iPaper this morning. UK economy takes triple hit from the Iran war And, you know, as part of this analysis, the front of The Guardian this morning saying Britain hit hardest in the G7, developed economies, the IMF saying. So they list, you know, petrol, energy, mortgage costs, the impact of Trumpflation, as the IPA puts it.

9:12Do you see a sort of whole array of potential cost increases because of all of this? Yeah, so we're seeing some come through already. So, for example, fuel transport, we deliver a lot of goods, whether it's to an end consumer or to a retailer. So we've had a 4.55 % increase on our fuel surcharge, currently absorbing that until we see what happens. But that's one of the more immediate hits. We've had shipping delays of key products, not so much because they're coming out of the Strait of Hormuz, but because there's a massive knock-on effect on global shipping as ships and shipping containers are not where they're meant to be.

9:55I think that there's so much uncertainty, isn't there, when we're thinking, well, what's coming up? Because the way that supply chains work, everything is planned so far in advance, but we're thinking, well, what's coming down the line in six months, in 12 months? So things like aluminium, for example, where they've been purchased quite far in advance, but aluminium's at a four-year high now. So lots of uncertainty, lots of trying to think ahead and see what's going to come in the future. So for your cans of not ideal to have aluminium at a four-year high, do you feel like the UK gets the brunt of the consequences of these global price crises that we see?

10:36It certainly feels like it at the moment, doesn't it? I mean, that's certainly what I'm reading in the press. I think if you were dealing with things in isolation or one or two things, then it would be manageable, but it feels like a consistent hit, whether it's from responses to new regulations in the economy or global shocks like this that you can't anticipate. So, yeah, I would probably agree with that. George, what is it about the way we're set up that, you know, this isn't even a first report this year that we've had from one of these sort of global bodies that looks at this stuff that says, well, if there's going to be an oil and gas price crisis in the Middle East, than actually the UK relatively, you know, when they work out what the growth would have been without this and then look at what it would be with it, that actually the change in growth, the UK's hit hardest.

11:27We've got two big Achilles heels, which is a problem because you don't want to take out both your legs in the UK. First, the energy policy, we, you know, 86 % of households are heated by gas. Let's compare us to, say, Germany or France, a pretty similar-looking economy. France has got a very, very high amount of nuclear power, so therefore they get less of an electricity shot. In Germany, they just burn a lot more coal. We've sort of turned our back on the North Sea, and yet we've replaced it with a much more volatile energy structure. So we've got a sort of crazy energy policy that leads us to weakness.

12:08And the second is that, as you said, is the mortgage rates, the higher borrowing costs. So our government suffers higher borrowing costs at the moment for multiple reasons. And so that just feeds through into higher rates that households and companies are paying, you know, paying on their debt. And so it just means that when you get an inflation hit, you know, we are, you know, we're more vulnerable. I'll leave you on one positive. I often think when the IMF produce these reports, it's usually sort of when the crisis is drifting into the rearview mirror. So hopefully, you know, it sort of marks more of a peak.

12:43But yes, the report itself exposes those two vulnerabilities. And they are predictions. They're not a fact of what will happen. Totally. And we definitely hear that when we speak to businesses like Emma's every single day. Emma, do you have a sense that when you've in recent years maybe had to pass on price pressures because whatever we saw coming out of COVID, the energy price spike with Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine, do you feel any similarities there where you're inevitably going to have to pass on a price rise this time round? we're obviously looking at it at the moment but we're trying to hold off where we can and not divert from our plans but we're just going to have to wait and see what happens I think we probably need to give it a little bit more time to see where it where it turns I guess as you referenced before or George referenced some changes this morning maybe in the news yeah and what what does you know if there's a hit to growth you know if we want to look at this report and be talking about percentage figures how how much the UK economy might not be as big as it might have been in other circumstances.

13:54But for you running your business, what does that actually feel like if you feel like you're not going to be able to grow as much as you wanted to this year? Well, sometimes in our, because we're a smaller good, a fast-moving consumer good, so sometimes when people have got less money, they may be more inclined to spend things on the little treats in life. So sometimes for a consumer company like us, it can be a good thing. But I just think it makes it really hard to plan, hard to look at investment, you know, thinking about how we're going to grow the business in 12 months, etc. And is that about, what are you aiming for at the minute?

14:31Is it being on more shelves, having more customers selling more tins? How do you, having more staff, more bases around the country, how do you sort of really feel as somebody running that business? What if in a year's time you would reflect on that and think, yeah, we grew how I wanted us to grow? it's a growth is um delivered or seen in lots of different ways so obviously we want to see hip hop on more shelves in more supermarkets in more cafes bars restaurants so it's very visual that sort of mental availability of the brand we basically want to take over the uk with hip hop and that's how we measure growth and then the the sort of things that surround that like the number of staff that we have in the business doing good stuff activations getting out there doing fun stuff and then obviously the numbers on the balance sheet and the p and l everything needs to be going up and getting bigger and so in that take that concept of taking over the uk i guess that that's like market share as well so within these different sectors you know as george sort of looks for positives within all of this um for anybody running a business i guess your whole sector your economy that you're working in might be having a tough time but you can still try and take more of that pie somehow even in the toughest of times.

15:54I think anybody who's running a business has to maintain that sense of relentless optimism even when things are tough because you've got to grow in spite of what's going on around you and also take advantages of opportunities that might come up that you hadn't expected so I you know you've just got to crack on. George you seem like you're looking for the positives mood this morning, just as we wrap this little bit on state of the economy. What would you say are the most positive things for the British economy this year? Because a lot of the headlines, and I know we've got an election coming up for many around the country, so there's a lot of sort of politically generated headlines as well.

16:39But it will be about Britain being hit hardest or the debate about where spending should be. Should it be on defence or on welfare or both or neither? And yet amidst all of that, you might have some positives for Britain this year. Well, I think that was just really summed it up. Well, the headlines are pretty good. We're in a low growth, high tax, high regulation. to the world, but we've still got lots and lots and lots of small businesses that are fighting and trying to grow, and we've got a lot of can-do attitude. We've got certain segments where we are still big leaders, you know, the world of AI.

17:24We're still seen as the second biggest talent pool outside of the US. We still produce many more unicorns than sort of all the rest of Europe put together. So there's lots of good things in the UK. We're very good at doing ourselves down. That's a bit of a British disease. It doesn't really help. It is hard when every day you open the newspaper and you think, oh, my God, not again. But I see lots and lots and lots of good things going on underneath the surface. And it's driven by kind of people rolling their sleeves up and hard work and getting on with it. Yeah, and we hear a lot of that on Wake Up To Money as well.

17:54And I'll finish with the bottom bit of that iPaper front page where it says the British economy forecast to rebound quicker in 2027. So more forecasts further down the line. But a reminder that they are all predictions this morning. Thank you for your messages this morning. Michael's been into it saying AI will break crypto. We might get into that topic a little later, Michael, as we hear about the power of the latest artificial intelligence machines and the threats they have to many systems. But what about that crypto system we've so often talked about in recent years and how that is supposed to be built on such a highly secure piece of software globally?

18:36So we'll have a look at that on this day. The economy and others been in touch saying the main reason we're hit is the UK are just shopkeepers. We just sell things. 85058, let us know your thoughts on the state of play on all we're discussing. We're going to get into video games a bit later as well, if that's something you are particularly looking forward to in the coming days and weeks. Big launches, maybe you've already had one this year, the big game that you got at Christmas and you've had a few months to get into it. Give us your reviews on that. But let's have a look at one aspect of the war in Iran that perhaps doesn't get as many headlines because of the volatile nature of the words around it from the politicians involved from the impacts globally, as we've already been discussing of the high oil prices, high gas prices, is the number of seafarers that have been stranded in the Gulf since that effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz six and a half weeks ago.

19:3420 ,000 seafarers stranded, according to the International Maritime Organization. So this is crew stuck on tankers, yachts, other vessels in the region as well, that continue to face uncertainty over when and how they'll be able to leave, alongside worries about access to essential supplies like food and fuel as well. A chief stewardess who worked on board a yacht based in Doha for three years, she had the following anonymous testimony read by one of the Wake Up To Money team. During the recent period of height and tensions, we could hear and observe missile interceptions and explosions from shore.

20:07Crew were instructed to remain mostly at home. However, we were still required to carry out watch duties on board. Being alone on the vessel while hearing ongoing military activity was unsettling. The situation affected crew differently. Many of us are European and haven't previously experienced anything similar, which led to increased anxiety and uncertainty. Some crew members chose to leave the region entirely. In such cases, the only option provided by the company was resignation. There was no structured support for temporary relocation or rotation. People who expressed concern were mostly looked at as crazy and had to stop complaining and continue their duties with no other options.

20:41Support varied significantly depending on nationality. In my case, there was no repatriation and no assistance available. Even without direct physical danger, being in proximity to conflict creates a constant psychological pressure. The uncertainty, the lack of control and the need to continue functioning professionally under these conditions has the greatest impact. So they were the words of a chief stewardess on board a yacht that was based out of Doha for three years, voiced by one of the Wake Up To Money team. I've got Sasha Meyer with me, who's the Assistant General, Secretary General of Nautilus International.

21:14So that's the seafarers' trade union that helps members understand their rights when working in a war zone. Sasha, good morning. How common is that testimony we've heard there, do you think?

21:30Yeah, good morning, Sean. Thank you for having us on the show this morning. Yes, unfortunately, this testimony is not uncommon. We are a trade union representing maritime professionals, mainly in the UK, in the Netherlands and in Switzerland. And we are in touch every day with our members on board of these vessels. and the uncertainty and the stress is the main aspect that we hear every single day, especially the uncertainty of when are we going to get out of this situation is really causing mental stress. What is the situation for workers, for their ships that have not been able to get out of the Strait of Hummuts and have been there for several weeks.

22:26What conditions are there at the moment?

22:35Yeah, first of all, our members, our seafarers, they're civilians. They have not chosen a military career, and they now got stuck in a war. That's not their war. That's not the situation they chose. Their vessels are simply stuck in or near a war zone. They hear drones coming over. They hear bombs. They have until recently been really very conscious of war activities really taking place really nearby their vessels. Also, supplies are running out. They do still get water. They do still get supplies. but a humanitarian crisis is really nearby for many of our members. They're very conscious of this situation and especially the uncertainty.

23:39Are we going to get home? How, when, how long is this war going to go on? It's really being more and more difficult. It's the seventh week of war. So there are members of Nautilus who are stuck on their vessel for seven weeks. And when you talk about a humanitarian crisis, maybe not being so far away, who can do something to prevent that? Amidst a war going on and we don't know how long that will go on for, who can do something to prevent that consequence of a war going on? Because many might sort of feel that those seafarers, many will feel, no doubt, that those seafarers and their conditions don't need to be impacted to that extent of a humanitarian crisis when neither side would say the war is with them.

24:42Yeah, that's a very important question. Seafarers are key workers. so we uh we know that that's uh 90 of the goods that in britain and in europe uh we we get our food our uh our clothes many of the 90 of the goods are being transported overseas so seafarers are key in getting all those goods to the consumers and yet in times of crisis we've seen that in the pandemic and now again seafarers are stuck on vessels. Sorry to interrupt you, Sasha, because I know there's a little bit of a delay on the line. I just wonder, is it companies who should do more here? Who should be stepping up? Yeah, governments worldwide should do better in getting seafarers off the vessels in this kind of situations.

25:38We are in very close touch with the UN organization for maritime, the International Maritime Organization, IMO. IMO is talking to governments worldwide about safe corridors to get vessels going again and to get vessels out of the war zones. We really feel that governments worldwide should do better in protecting seafarers in this kind of precarious situations. And, of course, companies have their responsibility too, and we see companies that take care of their seafarers very well, that do all they can for good information, but also that do all they can for repatriation, for crew change. Right.

26:31But we see quite a different picture there. Sasha, thank you so much for your time this morning. Sasha Meyer there, Assistant Secretary General of Nautilus International. Emma Thackeray is with us this morning, founder of the beverage brand Hip Pop. Emma, you were talking earlier about supply chain and shipping around the world. And we often speak to businesses, particularly consumer businesses like yourself, where the awareness of the supply chain, the awareness of workers all the way through that supply chain is quite front of mind when running the business. I mean, these seafarers are just one major cog in this global industry, aren't they?

27:19Yeah, and a very sort of important part of it too. I mean, it's a potential real human tragedy. all those people trapped, scared, you know, not able to get back home to their families. A sort of microcosm of that, we had a member of our team actually who was out in the UAE on holiday when it all kicked off and luckily she's back now and she's safe, but that, you know, that worry for just one person, that was very real. I think that, you know, this seafaring clearly is getting riskier riskier and these people are such a people working in that industry are such a vital part of making that happen so we're so dependent upon them and and we need to think about who's going to want to do that job if things are super risky I guess it's a you know the piece you just had on is a really good reminder for businesses like us because I'm sat here thinking about supply chain and where's the shipping container but it's a nice reminder that there are people stuck in the middle of this that we need to think about.

28:2385058, your thoughts this morning. More to come from Emma and George and plenty on artificial intelligence, its impact, and cyber security protection of our data, of our systems that we use every single day. The London Games Festival as well. Video games are going to be top of the agenda there. Are you getting involved with Tomb Raider, Grand Theft Auto V, LEGO, Batman? I mean, some real legacy names there, aren't they? Some of the biggest video games ever made were by TT Games in Cheshire. We're going to be speaking to the boss of one publisher behind some of other major names like Balatro and The Case of Golden Idol as well.

29:04So if you have any questions around any of those, any thoughts about the video game world, do let us know 85058. Ever been a gamer, Emma? A gamer at the minute? Has that been an escapism moment for you at all? You're allowed to say no. I'm not a gamer. No, fine. It's good for me to check now before we get into it at the end of this program. I'll throw all these kind of questions at you as you're well aware on Wake Up To. My shopping style is more stay-at-home than try-in-store. So my Amex Blue Cash Everyday card is my go-to accessory. When I shop, it's easy to earn by getting 3 % cash back on U.S.