Oil and trouble

27:20We also see some trucking increasingly from Oman into the UAE. And I think I think all our focus right now is on making sure that the cargo flows and arrives at this destination so that we don't get into a shortage situation. Lay out the dangers for us if some of your ships did try to navigate these passages, the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea route. What is it that you are concerned about? I think with the experience that we have had in the Red Sea, with the attack by drones from the Houthis towards international transits there. I think we have learned an important lesson, which is that you don't need very sophisticated naval capabilities.

28:03You need to have sufficient drones that you can try to overwhelm the defense that those ships can have from the escorts that they might have. And so for us, the concern, the main concern is the safety of our crews, is the safety of our assets. And as long as there are significant drone capabilities, no assurance of a truce, then it's very hard for us to put our colleagues and our ship in harm's way and risk having an attack be successful and create damage or loss of life in the process. Another option that's being discussed by Presidents Trump and President Macron is the idea that there could be some kind of Navy escort to get ships through the Strait of Hormuz and perhaps even the Red Sea.

28:50Is that something that you would welcome? Do you think it's even a feasible idea? We would need to look at what they can put in place, what other type of guarantees they can put, what type of systems can they put in place and intensity they can put in place to protect these sailing routes and then we'll have to take it from there. Without knowing what the solution is, it's very difficult for me to deal on the hypothetical. But what I can say is whether this has a diplomatic solution or a military solution, we are eager to see the Strait of Hormuz reopen. We are eager to having free traffic and freedom of navigation restored, but it will have to be with a safety first in mind and something that I think is going to be important for us and is going to be important, frankly, for all the vessel owners that are concerned by this situation.

29:40So that is the chief executive of Maersk, the global shipping giant, Vincent Clercq, talking to our very own Jonathan Josephs there. Fascinating stuff. Megan, just before we bid you good morning, on the back of all the shipping conversation there, hearing from the boss of Maersk talking about what is going on, what might be needed next in the Middle East. At the same time, wake up this morning and we see that actually it seems Iran has managed to get through some ships through the Strait of Hummus, delivering oil to Asia. China has been questioning some shipping companies like Maersk about the increase in prices that it's seeing.

30:20What role does the powerhouses in Asia that rely on that oil from the Middle East and still seemingly able to get some of it, China with its influence on the shipping industry, what role does that have on where this war goes next and particularly where the issues around price and supply chains go next? Well, it's fundamental to the trajectory of this conflict. Essentially, over 80 % of Iran's crude exports go to China on any given day and in any given year. And so essentially, China functions as Iran's economic lifeline. The dynamic that we've seen playing out between the two of them is essentially that Iran will export crude and discount it in order to weigh out the difficulties that that presents to China when it comes to purchasing oil that has been so heavily sanctioned.

31:11And so it's not surprising that we're seeing Iran continue to allow certain exports to go to its major trade partners, such as China. And this is something we can expect to continue seeing as the conflict plays out. Because even though we are in, effectively for Iran, a total war scenario, that does not mean that the need for foreign currency stops. It doesn't mean that the need for economic inflows stops. So we're likely to... And just on that, Megan, sorry to interrupt you. The state of the Iranian economy in the middle of all this, the money that it has and how people are able to feed themselves, the price of goods in Iran, the consequence of all that, has that changed since this war began?

31:55It absolutely has. It is quite challenging to know exactly what conditions are like in Iran at the moment, simply because since the 1st of March, Iran has been under an internet blackout. So the only sources that we really have are those that have been essentially smuggled out on an ad hoc basis or that are related through state media. And all of those should be treated with a degree of scepticism. But all of that being said, we do know that the Iranian real remains under major pressure. It's trading today at approximately 1 ,500 ,000 to the US dollar, which again is a major, major depreciation compared to this time last year when it traded at approximately 800 ,000.

32:36We also know that Iran has banned food exports for the moment. So they're attempting to keep supplies within the country. But again, it's not a good situation for Iran at the moment. we can expect major economic fallout and a major impact on conditions of living for everyday people within Iran. Megan, thank you so much again for your time this morning. No doubt we'll be talking again at some point in the coming days and weeks, as we all have plenty of questions about what is going on in the Middle East, the prospects for the countries there for the war and the consequences of it. Megan Sutcliffe, Principal Analyst for the Middle East and Africa for Sybil.

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34:57Wake Up to Money with Sean Farrington. We are live. It is Wake Up to Money on BBC5 Live. If you want to listen to something that isn't live, you know you've got our Big Boss Interview podcast series that you can get hold of. Charles Stewart is the latest chief executive interviewed there, the boss of Sotheby's Auction House. He told us how the art world faces a misguided reputation over money laundering. We discussed Russian sanctions, the Middle East conflict, why digital art represents the future. You can search for Big Boss Interview wherever you listen to your podcasts. Here right now, we're talking about what we're going to be getting into, what is going on with our banknotes.

35:34The very latest from Glasgow and those businesses that have been impacted by the fire next to the central station. They'll talk about small bands as well and how they can tap into a new fund that has been generated from tickets for concerts for bigger artists that are out there as well. Just want to reflect a bit more on where prices might go next. Next, if the surge in energy prices due to the Iran war is sustained, inflation, the rate at which prices are rising, could end this year at 3%, according to the Office for Budget Responsibilities, David Miles. So the watchdog has been forecasting previously that inflation would be around 2 % by the end of the year.

36:17Dan Murray is with us, who's the co-founder of the health supplements brand Heights. Dan, you were talking earlier about how that customer confidence is one of the areas where you potentially can see an impact on your business that you've learned from previous crises in recent years. When you hear about that sort of change in prices, the overall expectation that instead of prices on average of all our goods going up by 2 % a year goes up by 3 % a year, does that change your mood for the year ahead and how your customers might be? Yeah, actually, my eyebrows just raised as you said it. It's interesting, 2%, 3%, they don't sound that big, I think, to your general consumer like myself, right?

37:00But actually on the business side, you know that those things do make a difference. If everything becomes more expensive, people have to make choices and especially families. And so, yes, like honestly, I think that kind of stuff, it just doesn't help, does it? At the end of the day, you know, if people are more squeezed, people have to make choices. They can't all have the same, you know, the same discretionary spend that they had when things are going down. And I think that's more it, is that people sort of recognise a trend. So it's less about a two to three. Like, it's what it signals, right?

37:33If prices are going up and things are more expensive and more challenging for people, a lot of people in advance, especially people with families, start to make decisions about what to change in their spending habits earlier so it's not too late. And that is where there can often be a problem. I think a very common line we've heard from sort of attempting to be optimistic entrepreneurs like yourself in recent years just doesn't help, does it? Because at the same time, you're looking to grow your business, controlling what you can control alongside all of that. And since we last spoke, you've got a few more things in the pipeline, things that have actually kicked in now.

38:11You've launched on the high street, Dan. I'm always intrigued how that process goes. You may well have had a presence online to a lot of people for a while now, but launching in a place like Boots in January, as you have done this year, what does that reflect in a business like yours when you manage to get into people's eyeballs when they're pottering about town on a Saturday afternoon? People can see your stuff. Is that a milestone for a business like yours? I mean, the honest answer is yes, it really is. And it's interesting because we've been going for since 2020. and we've got over 100 ,000 monthly customers.

38:55So 100 ,000 people take our products every single day. And we have a lot of celebrities that rely on our products. And, you know, we supply a lot of, you know, you were talking earlier in the sports, you know, football teams, rugby teams. We supply the England football team for the World Cup. We supply South Africa rugby team, Italy and Ireland rugby teams. All sorts like F1, all sorts of cool things. But actually, interestingly, it's Boots, of all things, that has probably got the most amount of comments from people, like more anecdotally. But it really seems to have made an enormous difference.

39:29So we launched in their six major stores. I mean, granted, we were given a very big presence. We've been given what's called a module. So it's a very, very, you know, it's multi-shelves. It's five shelves, all heights, all heights branded, et cetera. And we've been sold out ever since we went in them. It's interesting. I think I noticed in a boots, I don't know if it was for heights, it may well have been, but in that sort of wellness area where you might go to get whatever it might be, that maybe wouldn't have existed a decade ago. They'd ripped it out entirely. There was something major going on.

40:02The place I'd normally go to get whatever it was I was buying, I was like, oh, it's not there. And they were going through a bit of a shakeup. So that is clearly changing. Something is up for grabs, isn't it? You're able to get a part of it in boots. something is changing in the dynamic of how our biggest retailers view this stuff 100 % and especially you know from a Boots point of view there are pharmacies they're always very careful and skeptical about these types of things as you know obviously supplements particularly right because again being a pharmacy that's why for us Boots was the right place to do this as well we've had a lot of offers over the last few years to do retail and we've never been tempted But Boots came in with a really compelling offer for us to be a flagship brand in their, essentially their redesign of a lot of their major stores around focusing on wellness like they've done with beauty over the last few years, recognizing the consumer trend of people wanting a really curated and trusted experience in store with that.

40:56and so we've gone from those six stores they've just ordered another 450 so it's a much like a you know considerably bigger expansion um over the next couple of months that we're trying to work towards and it has been quite an exciting new opportunity for us like i say we've been sold out like non-stop since going in there and can't really supply it fast enough and i think that has been surprising for us because we don't know anything about the retail world right we have been completely online as a function of being a COVID startup. We just don't know much about this world or how it will go. And so it's been really encouraging to see it growing so quickly.

41:31Well, congratulations to everybody, you know, working behind the scenes and all that as well, as we well know on this show, it's not easy to grow your business in recent years and to have major milestones like this. It's always fascinating to hear a little bit of the behind the scenes of what goes on and what makes the difference as well. That's why we have folks like Dan on our show every single day. Let's have a look at the latest from Glasgow now. Scotland's busiest railway station remains closed following a huge fire that destroyed a neighbouring building. Glasgow Central Station has been shut since Sunday when a blaze spread from a vape shop on Union Street through a B-listed Victorian building.

42:13Now, businesses based at the Union Corner building have been describing their devastation at the destruction. More than£160 ,000 now raised through a GoFundMe platform to help them recover. Is that enough? Is that getting to where they need it quickly enough? Let's hear from Linda Nesson, who joins us now, whose barbershop was completely destroyed over the course of the end of the weekend at the beginning of this week. Linda, I'm so sorry to hear that your barbershop was completely destroyed and the messages we've had in from listeners over recent days would completely reflect that as well. How are you at the moment?

42:51I'm over the shock. Good morning. I just feel like the love that's been poured into this situation by the community has just been overwhelming. It's a lot to take in, but we're getting our heads round it now. There's three of us in our salon, so, well, there was. And, you know, we just, it's all about teamwork now moving forward. with the help of the community. And, you know, we just don't know what lies ahead. Well, I mean, Linda, it's great to hear that you have that sort of positive view just a few days afterwards. I know you say you're over the shock, but do you mind taking us back to how you sort of found out about what was going on on Sunday and what did happen to your shop and then the days that followed?

43:38So this was Sunday afternoon. I was out with my sister and my mum and my friend and we got a text from one of the other team members saying it was a picture at this stage with the smoke coming out the ground floor and the first floor. And initially we thought it was a small fire and if anything it would just be smoke damage and we would all get back in and everything would be fine. So the initial thing was just, oh, it's a small incident, it's going to be controlled. And the more we were watching, because we're like two floors above the vape shop. The more we were watching it and trying to get the updates, it was just getting worse and worse.

44:16And it was actually like watching a horror movie. It just did not feel real watching the situation. So, you know, once all that kicked off, we knew there was no going back because it was just rising like quite quickly. And I honestly can't say what I was feeling at that point because I was quite numb. I bet. Fancy? And at what point did it start to sort of materialise of what you needed to do next or what support you needed next? Do you know, at that point we didn't have any clue because we don't own the building. We leased that and there's so many businesses in there and we didn't know where to turn or what to do.

45:00Obviously, we knew the situation itself was going to take ages to deal with, so we didn't know how quick. I didn't think things would move as quickly in the sense that people would reach out as fast and everybody would say, we want help and suggest a GoFundMe and stuff like that. At that point, we didn't even know that was an option. We were just like, what next? So, you know, we had to get our heads together and say, what are we going to do here? Because, you know, we need to kind of do some sort of work in between to move forward for earning and living. until we set up something new. So there's just so many aspects of it to take in and it's just crazy behaviour, isn't it?

45:44We just don't know what's going to happen next. So what do you do as a business? What has it been like since, say, Monday morning when you've had all of those things to consider? What have you done this week? So we've been looking at premises in a similar fashion, like an older office block, because that's the style we work in, something smaller, just the three of us, and we've done that for nine years. It works perfectly. So there is other buildings nearby. I don't know, you know, how much space is left. We've got a viewing tomorrow on Hope Street, which is literally behind the station, so it's not far for people trying to find us again and stuff.

46:29So we're going to go and try and get one of a similar size. and, you know, the people that owned the building we were in, they have property around there as well and they've offered us a discount on the rent for moving forward for future premises. So, like, everybody's trying to do their wee bit for us now, so it's just about securing something new and trying to get in and, like, the help's been unreal. People are saying, we'll help you paint. if you need to build new sections we can chip in and get you discounts and help you and it's just so much, my heart's full of love and my head's going to burst it's bitter sweet And in terms of the money Linda to get yourself going at the next place again, pay for this stuff, is this fund savings you've had yourself, have you tapped into this GoFundMe as well as their local authority financial support?

47:30So I've not looked at the local authority stuff as yet. I don't even know if there's anything in place for that. The GoFundMe was a suggestion from someone else that said someone else in the building had started one and people seemed to be helping. And I was like, do you know what? Because a lot of the clients had said, I'll send you the price of a haircut. I'll send you this. You know, everybody was doing things on different levels. And for people, you know, just on that point, Linda, you know, people are giving money to this. They might not have a lot of spare cash themselves. We constantly talk about cost of living and people are looking at what you've gone through and gone, do you know what?

48:08Just have the money for the haircut. Do you know, it's crazy because people have been contributing to the GoFundMe that I haven't cut their hairs for maybe five, six years. and I'm looking through the GoFundMe and I'm looking at all these names and monies and amounts and I'm just like, wow. I can't get my head around it. So the funds that are in our GoFundMe at this moment will get us back on our feet as in the basics, the tools, the seat, the mirrors, all the essentials that we need to proceed forward. It might be basic initially, but it's enough to get us started. Any insurance, Linda, in all of this?

48:51We didn't. You know, initially when we moved in years and years ago, we had an insurance with a local company and that crept up quite high the first few years. And we, you know, it's a very small space we have and we agreed that this was ages ago, years ago, before lockdown. We agreed, you know what, the only thing that's going to destroy everything here is a fire. you know we're two up break-ins are few and far between you don't hear about the break-ins which would have been the main cause for us if someone you know comes in and steals the tools which was very unlikely to happen because it's quite a secure building but um no so we didn't have anything in place and it's it is a schoolboy error because it's times like this you do need it it just shows you that fire can get anybody anywhere at any time so it is really a big eye opener for us moving forward.

49:46Well Linda I mean thank you so much you've got so much in there in that short conversation but your your positivity and and what a feeling a reminder I guess Linda of why you sort of set up in the business in the first place that relationship with your customers ones that you'd maybe not heard from for years and then there they are when you need them. I know it's just amazing honestly and all the other businesses I hope they're getting where they need with the funds and stuff and just if the government do anything else for us that would be a wee bonus. So yeah, thanks for taking the time to chat to us about it.

50:19What's the name of the salon, Linda? It's Space 78. Right, great. Next time I'm in the market for a buzz cut in Glasgow which there's not much to do on my head but I'm sure people, we often hear this when we talk about the aftermath of floods and things like that. Space 78 in Glasgow, Linda's business there that is looking for new premises and looking to stay close to that Union Street salon that Linda had before. Linda, thank you so much. Good luck for the next few days. We'll have to check in with you and see how all that goes. Linda Nesson there, who's the owner of that Space 78 salon. Now, before we leave you this morning...

51:00If you imagine the sight... That is... I've got another confession of me! From your food.

51:13Dancing in the dark. With you between my arms.

51:27So some of these massive artists, Foo Fighters, Ed Sheeran, Lily Allen Cure. If you've been to see them in concert in recent times, you might have contributed to this UK Artist Touring Fund. Applications for access to that fund open today. It's being administered by the Featured Artist Coalition. And Gus Unger-Hamilton is one of the members of the English indie rock band Alt-J. He sits on this Featured Artist Coalition's board as well. Gus, thanks so much for your time this morning. What difference do you expect this to make, this fund? Thank you very much for having me. Yeah, well, we're extremely excited to be launching the UK Artist Touring Fund.

52:07We're hoping to give out£125 ,000 in this first round, which is going to basically help artists to bridge the gap between making tours financially unviable and making them feasible and in so doing, hopefully, let more fans access live music at the same time. So hopefully everyone's going to benefit from this. Would something like this have made your journey? You know, you've had a very successful time of it at All J. Gus, but were there points where you thought maybe you wouldn't have made it purely because there wasn't that liftoff that you needed when you needed it most? Massively. I mean, I think we were lucky to get signed back in 2011 when artists generally got signed a bit earlier in their careers, but I think labels now are generally waiting to see how artists can sort of fend for themselves, build their own following on social media, fund their own tours before they step in and start giving financial support to artists.

53:03So had we not, were we looking to get signed in 2026? I think we would absolutely have to be looking for some support like this. We also back then borrowed money from our manager, which was very nice of him, which we then paid back once we signed a record deal. But, you know, had we not had access to that loan, we certainly wouldn't have been able to go out and do tours before we were a signed band making money. So what kind of artists should be thinking about this fund, Gus? from your experience in the music industry, from the fact that you know the criteria for this application, where do they need to be to get the maximum value out of this?

53:38I mean, they can be anywhere in their career, really. It's not just here to support new or emerging artists. It's any artist who's over 18, resident in the UK, who's releasing music and who basically has tour dates booked as long as it's in a venue under 2 ,000 capacity, who is looking to, yeah, just to bridge that gap between making a tour impossible to make work financially and something that can actually pay for all the things that artists have to pay for on tour. Artists are the biggest employers in the industry. And as most people can imagine, I think going on tour mainly involves travel and accommodation costs, which have gone up hugely in the last few years as everybody's faced this cost of living crisis.

54:21It's also engendered a cost of touring crisis, which artists are bearing the brunt of. Does there need to be a bit more of this, the bigger artists sort of stepping up? Because in the grand scheme of things, we're talking about£100 ,000 that has gone into this fund? In this phase. In this phase. Of course, the most successful artists are seeing huge amounts come their way. Has it gone too far, the balance to the bigger artists over your time in the last decade or so? Well, it's certainly eye-opening that the amount that these top concert tickets cost now. And while I've got no problem with people being successful and doing well for themselves, it's just unfortunate that that does take more money out of the live music business in that people have less money to spend on going to other concerts If they want to go and see one huge pop star, that might be their entire year's budget for a night out watching music.

55:25But we're extremely grateful to the artists who are making these donations with the£1 added onto the ticket price. We would love to see this become a blanket levy in the industry so that the burden is taken off artists to decide whether or not to participate. But that's something that we're working towards. And the government certainly wants it to get to 100 % without having to step in and legislate. So we're hoping that that will become just the case in the next couple of years. We've got 20 seconds. So just the name of this, if people are searching for it online. The UK Artist Touring Fund, UCAT.

55:58Great. That's what we want, an acronym to end us. That's all we need. Gus Unger-Hamilton from Alt-J. Thank you so much for your time. Dan Tinnaker, thank you for yours so much. Thanks to your messages as well. That is it from Wake Up To Money. Does your family schedule look like an endless list of appointments, games, and practices? Does keeping everyone on schedule feel impossible? The Skylight Calendar is here to put an end to your scheduling stress with its all-in-one shared display, visual structure, and color-coded scheduling. Right now, Skylight is offering our listeners$30 off their 15-inch calendars by going to myskylight.com slash get30.

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