Can Anthropic's Claude Build Its Own $2 Trillion IPO Roadshow Deck?

0:00Is this for real? We've done this so many times where we've talked about how amazing Claude is, but are we now saying that actually ChatGPT has outperformed Claude in terms of producing and marketing to our deck?

0:13Debs: Our mission, make AI safe. Sure. Do we write this before or after the agents got out? They want to be able to look into the whites of the eyes of the management team and say to themselves, do we trust this management team with our capital? 27 is a really specific number. It's funny, I don't know if that makes me believe it more or less, to be honest. Actually, if you know that revenues are growing every week, why not take the last week's revenues and multiply it by 52? Why do we invest in businesses ultimately at the end of the day? Because they're cash machines, right? And that's the whole point of the good old DCF, to figure out, all right, what's the value of all the cash?

0:46Debs: Right now, not much of that. A lot of cash being lit on fire right now. The first evidence we have of ChatGPT outperforming Anthropic, ironically, in respect to the Anthropic IPO marketing slide deck. If I'm honest, though, still, they're both kind of a meh. Like, no one's actually going to investors with either of these decks as presented. Welcome to all our listeners this week. Welcome to this week's episode of What's the Big Deal? Graham, please tell us all, what is the big deal that we're going to look at this week? Today, we do have a big deal this week. So I know this has been rumored for a while, but we've got Anthropic coming to market with their rumored$2 trillion, their mega$2 trillion IPO.

1:31Debs: So we want to talk a little bit about that. Not too much because I know everyone's familiar with Anthropic, and we've been talking about this IPO coming for a little bit. But we wanted to also take a look at what we think the Roadshow presentation might look like. So we've used SpaceX as a precedent, and we've pulled together a couple samples. We're going to talk about those and talk about some of what we expect might come over the next few months here. Absolutely. So the IPO process for Anthropic has started. We don't yet to have an S1, so no official financials. So it does limit slightly what we can do.

2:07But we do know that the S1 should be published soon because they need 15 canon days from when the S1 is published to when the roadshow commences. and as you mentioned they're targeting a two trillion dollar valuation we understand it's expected to be based on a hundred billion dollar raise of capital and the plan is for the pricing of the IPO to be before the US midterms in November so it is all in the pipeline now we'll have a think about what their marketing slide deck will look like for the roadshow using AI to generate some suggested content. So a really interesting episode to talk through some of the interesting elements of their IPO that are likely to come out during the marketing and also to talk about what's in a slide deck for the roadshow.

2:58So Graham, what have you got for us? Because I know that you've already run a couple of prompts for us using both Anthropic and ChatGPT's latest models. So how did they fare?

3:08Debs: They fared okay. And as we'll go through, interestingly i feel like i feel like not to cut to the chase i feel like gpt might have done a better job of selling claude than claude itself did uh but we'll let we'll let you guys we'll let you guys decide uh so you've got a very similar problem is this for real we've done this so many times where we've talked about how amazing claude is if you're in financial services it's absolutely at the frontier in terms of what you can do around modeling but are we now saying that actually chat gpt has outperformed claude in terms of producing a marketing slide deck uh quite quite possibly quite honestly and i've i've been using i've been using astra for a few things a few work-related things actually pulling exercises whatnot together and i can say it's actually it's okay it's okay so i'm a little bit more balanced than than i used to be but uh let's let's take a look through the first slide deck and see what we think here.

4:09Debs: So, I mean, before we even get going, I mean, Dev, through your perspective, what do you need to see as a potential investor in one of these? Because you used to be in public equity. So, you've looked at, I assume, like thousands of these at this point. So, what are the sections that we definitely need to hit? Yeah, it's interesting because, I mean, ultimately, I think there's always a question of what is the purpose of the slide deck used on the roadshow because the investors already have access to the S1, which in theory is a document that has everything you would ever need to make an investment decision during an IPO.

4:43The problem is that the S1 doesn't really bring it to life. It has really regulated content in terms of the business, the financials, the management team, the risks, but it's really dry. And what investors really want to do is have a slide deck that they can use to prompt conversations with the management team. And you cannot really overstate the importance of investors wanting to meet with management. They want to be able to look into the whites of the eyes of the management team and say to themselves, do we trust this management team with our capital? And it's very much about the conversation, the ability to ask questions, hear how management responds to those questions.

5:26The investors know that management can't reveal anything new in terms of non-public information. But what they can do is they can gauge how management responds to those questions, you know, in terms of, are management really informed when they're providing those responses? You know, are there any subtle cues that management provide when they're answering the questions that lead us to provide, to have more confidence or less confidence in that management team? So there is a real -

5:55Debs: Do they always look away when they get asked that? What's your name? Yeah, yeah. Sorry, do I die on the left or right? Completely. In fact, I absolutely know of investors that are trained on body language. Totally. They love this. You would be. Yeah, absolutely. So this is really important. So, you know, that sort of conversation and they are going to be short meetings. You know, they can be as short as half an hour, up to an hour long. But and sometimes they're group meetings as well. It can happen over lunch. So it is really important they get as much information out of this discussion as possible.

6:29So sitting there with an S1 isn't really going to cut it. You really want a slide deck, which is going to help to focus the conversation and really bring that discussion to life. So in terms of what the slide deck has, it doesn't have anything new that's not already in the S1, but it's going to be much more digestible for the investors. And it's going to include a discussion of the business. You know, what's, you know, what is the proposition here? What's the story, the investment case, if you like, for the investors? Some, a little bit of some charts and diagrams to bring the financials to life.

7:02some discussion on the management team the governance angle on this as well and I know that when we were looking at SpaceX there's so much discussion about the lockups the ownership structure who has shares you know which investors are exiting which ones aren't and then of course the risks around the business as well so all of those are usually covered those are kind of the basics within the slide deck but it can be quite creative you know as I say it's kind of there to help sell the narrative, the story to the investors. So the expectation is it's quite an engaging document.

7:36Debs: Our financial and valuation modelling certification programme is the self-paced version of what we teach inside investment banks. Seven courses, 46 hours, three-statement modelling, DCF, trading and transaction comps, M &A and LBO, all built in Excel from scratch using real case studies. Over 100 ,000 people have gone through this training. You get unlimited support from former investment bankers, a month of pitch book access, and the certification when you pass the exams. It's all at wallstreetprep.com. With that in mind, what did we get from Fable as a marketing slide deck? Was it engaging? I mean, well, let's you, you, you, you, the, the viewers can be the judge.

8:21Debs: I mean, okay, disclaimer, we're always going to have that, that kind of thing uh offering summary there's not too much on here now because we don't we don't know that much what's funny though is like do we even have the the two trillion number on here on the summary i don't think so i would i would kind of i would kind of want to know that as a as a pretty foundational piece of information okay so to be fair i think the original prompt did say if it's a number that needs to be provided by management it should just be caveated that it's management input so it seems like maybe it's played a bit safe on that okay that's well reported but i don't even see we see offering size but i don't see the total the total listing value or market cap on here at all uh interesting uh and yeah i mean i we expect to see a lot of up and to the right so okay here we go we're like all right yeah largest offerings in history Saudi Ramco before and then SpaceX and more than that.

9:21Debs: Okay, great. Our mission, make AI safe. Sure. Do we write this before or after the agents got out? Okay, now here's our$2 trillion valuation. A trillion dollar valuation last private round. Customer size. Nothing particularly interesting. uh i mean one thing one thing i'm sure we'll talk a lot about and i mean i've i've talked about this on this podcast before is just the the revenue run rates that get calculated for businesses like this that are admittedly growing at what feels like exponential rates uh and what i what i actually one question for you deb so when i see a slide like this you know i i don't know if this if this data is correct, but we've got December a billion, and then we've got a little trajectory from May to October going from three to seven billion, and then up to 65 less than a year later.

10:23Debs: Are there many restrictions in terms of, say, for the actual S1, what kind of methodologies can be used for calculating a revenue run rate like this? Can the S1 even have a revenue run rate, or is that a metric that's reserved for a marketing deck like this? Good question. And I'm going to give you my own view. It's not researched in any way. But so you can include in the S1 adjusted figures. And remember, there was a whole palaver around that when WeWork produced their S1 and their adjusted figures were all over the place. They were crazy. So you are allowed to quote management adjusted figures and KPIs in the S1.

11:04So I don't think there's any restriction on them including that in the S1. I mean, there is a certain requirement in terms of it not being misleading and, you know, that it has to have some kind of justification. But I think the big challenge is that anything that's adjusted or what we refer to as a non-GAAP measure is that there isn't an accounting standard that says how you calculate it. And so there is so much scope for how you calculate revenue run rates in terms of, you know, is it gross or net? Because there are kind of revenue sharing arrangements for some of these businesses. How do you calculate what is annualized?

11:42And we were having a little chuckle before we started recording about the most aggressive way which you could do it. Because, you know, the starting point for many of us would be, well, to look back over your last month and say, well, annualized revenues are based on the last month's revenues multiplied by 12. Well, actually, if you know that revenues are growing every week, why not take the last week's revenues and multiply it by 52? And then you can get, ultimately, then the last two, three days of revenues and start multiplying it by day count numbers. But ultimately, there is no rule that says how you do this.

12:18Realistically, they're probably going to have to disclose the approach that they use, but then it does limit comparability you know if we've got other competitors using different methodologies you can't really compare those numbers so it is very much there's a there's an element of judgment in

12:32Debs: there and i guess the you know you can you can kind of make an argument for companies that's growing so quickly whether you're taking a week or a month and annualizing you're like you know in some ways like let's let's say let's say we get a lot of data here which says you know what churn is minimal, customers keeps up upsizing, all this kind of thing. If we're annualizing what's been delivered already, and we genuinely expect that to continue in the future, we say, okay, it's aggressive, but it's semi-backable. I have seen and heard of examples of revenue run rate calculations I call just egregious.

13:12Debs: And I'm not going to name the name of the business, But one of my good buddies was an early investor in a private company that was ultimately backed by and got into Y Combinator. And it's kind of like, oh, when I was talking about this, I kind of lost a lot of faith in a lot of these Silicon Valley, some of these Silicon Valley, you know, kind of whatever you want to call them, not venture funds, like incubators, you know, whatever name you want to give to it. But when they were then selling in their revenue run rate calculation, this is a business that is a kind of consumer-facing business, mostly does spot purchases of stuff.

13:57Debs: Again, I'm not going to say what the stuff is because it doesn't matter what the company is. and you know they were they were basically taking last month and multiplying by 12 but in their last month they had this crazy one-off one-off event that generate a lot more revenue than they would in their normal months and it was very clearly a this happened last month only and not the month before and that's the month they multiplied by 12 and he told me and i'm like are you like are you fucking kidding me like this is this is crazy um but i think this happens all the time. So that's the thing that I'm always a bit skeptical of when I see these kind of run rate calculations.

14:38Debs: And I don't know how you even really dig into it and validate if there's anything like that or if it's, no, yeah, the last week is a good week and we multiply by 52 and that's what we think. Yep. And yeah, and you raise a really good point. You know, what is in that revenue? How how reliable it is as a predictor of future revenues what we refer to as persistence of revenues and i think what anthropic do have in their favor and it's definitely a question that investors will be focused on is the revenue mix because we all know that enterprise revenues are much stickier uh than retail revenues you know you have businesses that sign up to their subscriptions with the you know with the ai provider and those are very sticky they're very recurring you know they'll be integrated into processes and you know within the business so they're going to keep generating those revenues um and so that you know that makes us realize that a dollar of revenue from one company uh that's then applied a run rate applied is not the same as a dollar of revenue from another company that maybe generates its revenues from a less sticky source so then you start to think a little bit about the quality of revenues and you know as i say with anthropic my sense is that their revenues are quite good quality because they are have a high proportion of enterprise business.

15:54But it's definitely something that investors will be very focused on because it then helps them to think about the trajectory of those revenues and not just how they're growing, but what sort of level of sustainability their existing revenues are. Yeah.

16:10Debs: And I think, you know, on the main question I would have for, you know, both Anthropic and OpenAI when it ultimately comes to market next year is, you know, if I were in the room kind of asking questions with them is I actually kind of buy into there being a world where even on the consumer level, revenue is fairly sticky in the sense that we were talking about this before we kicked off the episode. We all use these tools all the time in our day lives, whether it's to help out with work or planning a vacation or whatever, right? And it's not that much money at the end of the day and you compare what you'd have to spend to get the same level of service through paying a human ultimately.

16:55Debs: And there's the whole social question, which is another thing we'll leave out of that for a second. I'll be saying, no, actually it's pretty hard. So like, I think my, as an example, like my subscriptions with both of these platforms right now is actually quite sticky because I wouldn't want to, I wouldn't want to not use them right now. I think Like the question I have is around, especially for things like the APIs for both of them, which is where a lot of the business revenue comes from, how sticky are those actual interfaces kind of now and in the next few years? Or are we going to be in a world where, you know, really to some extent it doesn't matter as long as the model you're wiring it to does the job you want it to?

17:36Debs: Then are the switching costs actually pretty low? So is it just at a really simple level, you're like, all right, I have this task. Right now, it's wired up to Claude's API because Claude does it best. But can I basically just say, you know what, okay, the new Astra model is better, or there's a cheap deep seek model that I can just do the same thing from for much lower cost. And all I have to do is change my, in essence, my gateway, for lack of a better word. that's i think that's the the revenue risk as i as i see it here anyway like i don't see people turning down their use of ai but i do see there being a bit more freedom to kind of move around models absolutely it's one of the big challenges with this effectively what is frontier technology is we have no idea how the world will look in a year's time and two years time and we're assuming that as you say these charts which are up and to the right they continue and that the world continues you know sort of adopting this same technology and there's no further disruption and as you say there's so many other things happening in the background the ability to create your own models um from accessing um platforms rather than actually just buying in the actual uh the model um from anthropic or open ai and you know it could be that the world pivots in six months to a year's time there's obviously other risks as well things you know there's been a lot in the news about governance risks recently but maybe we'll come back to that um but yeah lots lots of uncertainties lots of unknowns around their future revenues yeah so let's keep going through the slide okay so revenue roommate right again lots of up up into the right uh why we win this is not gonna lie this is boring sure talent diversity leadership and coding agents capital it's a bit uninspiring yeah yeah like come on products and how we monetize all right we sell these models that We all heard it before.

19:29Debs: Monumentous Three Years. Yeah. What AI unlocks. What is this chart on the right? TAM. TAM and Trillions. Four trillion address today. 27 trillion unlocked by AI. 27 is a really specific number. When we're talking, it's funny. I don't know if that makes me believe it more or less, to be honest. It's like, oh, we've done all this really detailed work to figure out exactly what TAM is. I'm like, you don't know in that much detail when we're talking a number this big. Yes, although it is interesting, isn't it? That, you know, that was the big headline with the SpaceX IPO was the TAM for SpaceX, which a huge amount of that was based on the enterprise license revenues.

20:15Oh, 100%.

20:16Debs: And by the way, I'm not saying that I don't think the TAM is very large. That's not what I'm saying. I'm just saying that 27 specifically feels funny when you're talking about numbers that big. Yeah. Why not 30? Yeah, no, true. I think, in fact, for SpaceX, wasn't it like 26 and a half? Weirdly specific. But it's the same ballpark as well. We paid one of the big consultants a billion dollars to come up with that number. Okay. Don't forget the decimal. But yeah, so it is interesting. Oh, we forgot to carry the zero. Oops. but it's the same ballpark so it is interesting they're kind of they're all working for the same kind of the the main kind of the same end game in terms of uh the ai market the big question is what their share of that market is going to be really isn't it 100 and that's what that's what we don't i don't think we know and i do feel like that'll change that'll change as we as we kind of you know develop this technology as more models come out all that kind of stuff i mean you know the way I guess the way I would think about the TAM here is almost just real, real high level and real simple.

21:27Debs: And you kind of say, all right, here's the size of the global economy today. And here's a portion of that that we think can be addressed with these products. And that's kind of the TAM, right? Because this technology is relevant to almost every aspect of life in some way, shape or form. So if I were selling this, that's kind of how I think about it. You think, so the size of the economy, but then the size of the economy after adjusting for the efficiency gains, the productivity gains that you get from AI. I mean, there's a whole kind of spiral in my mind as to how you even justify that allocation.

22:05Yeah, I don't disagree.

22:07Debs: Really interesting. But anyway, let's keep going through the slide deck. What else have we got? Lots more text. Okay. I'm not seeing extinction on here, so bad. Yeah, so let's talk about extinction, because it's obviously been hitting the headlines this week. There's been a lot of discussion about the end of the world. Do you think we're going to be running the robot overlord kind of situation here, Debs? Oh, gosh, no. It's interesting to hear your views, Graham, but the main conversation that I've been having repeatedly over last week is how. It's not if. I mean, I think we all accept that, you know, there's a probability, you know, a possibility that it might happen.

22:49But it's how. What would be the trigger of the end of the world as a result of AI? And, yeah, I think there's a lot of people who have the view that it would end up with, you know, global war, mutual destruction, nuclear weapons. But I don't know. My preference would be, well, not my preference, but my view is that it would be through biological weapons. My real sense is that that is something that's more accessible. And, you know, the problem with nuclear weapons is that, you know, there's control concentrated in the hands of a few for that to actually happen. whereas unfortunately biological weapons so not that many people you got to get to yeah yeah um but yeah with ultimately the it's quite accessible in terms of accessing materials uh the knowledge now through ai um and once it's out there you know if it's a virus or a bacteria it's out there it's very you know you can't bring it back so this is a really depressing conversation but graham your views do you what do you keep you awake at night the end of the world from AI?

24:05Debs: It doesn't. And actually the thing that I, one of the things I was reading it was because there's obviously been a lot about this in the last few weeks but one of the things, I think it was a New York Times article maybe I couldn't remember. I'm basically saying, you know, we face extinction from all kinds of stuff and humans just have a problem putting things into perspective and compartmentalizing a little bit. Yeah. So we face extinction from asteroids and from the sun. I don't remember what it was but you know, thrown out some kind of, you know, spark basically that like wipes out earth. All this, all this stuff that's a chance that we just don't think about because it's not front of, front of mind.

24:42Debs: This is front of mind right now. So we're talking about and thinking about a lot. And there have been a few examples recently that I think in people's mind, you're like, all right, is this, is this the like Skynet Terminator situation? And, you know, for, for good reason where you've got these agents who are hacking and covering their trails and trying to subvert human operatives and all this stuff. But I don't know, it also doesn't keep me awake, because what's the point of staying awake over this? I got plenty of other stuff keeping me awake, but it's not that. Yeah, I think what's also interesting is that there has been some speculation that the discussions around regulation slowdown of AI, which we've got the leaders of Anthropic and OpenAI, part of those discussions that this is maybe being used to manage expectations about disappointments in growth.

25:31They can point to the fact that there's going to be regulation that's constraining their growth that helps them to manage their communications on growth profiles. So maybe if we're skeptical, it could be around that. I don't know if you've got a view on that, Graham.

25:48Debs: Look, I don't know. Is there a world in which Anthropic is going out of the midterms because they think something is going to happen. Maybe. And right now, Trump is pretty favorable to a lack of the I-regulation. What did he say the other day? All you need is a president with a high IQ or something. So, all right, send in the replacement.

26:06Debs: I don't know. I can see there being a world in which people try to regulate more. Let's say that happens in the US, then yeah, you probably say it has an impact on valuation for the IPO. So I can see there being an argument to get this done now. I think it's just hard to regulate this technology globally though, right? Because like the other thing I was reading the other day, which I really buy into is, you know, right now, right now we're in a position where the model, the frontier models we have right now seem pretty impressive and they're doing the hacking and they're covering their tracks and all the stuff that kind of raises alarm bells.

26:43Debs: The point this article is making was, you know, in not much time, the free open source models are going to be doing exactly the same thing. And we don't know where the frontier is going to be. So it's like all it takes is one or two bad actors. So unless we've got everyone coordinating on some kind of regulation, I don't see what regulating either open air anthropic just in the U.S. as an example is really going to do over the long term. Might slow it down a little bit, but it's tough. Yeah, it is tough. And we've seen plenty of failures of regulation, you know, where it needs action on a global scale.

27:22And the classic example would, of course, be climate change, where they have tried to regulate carbon emissions. And, you know, they've had carbon taxes, carbon credits. And, you know, ultimately all that's resulted in is a shift of productivity towards, you know, or shifting carbon emissions to the areas which are less regulated. So that is the problem, you know, and that's the one that all the politicians are dealing with at the moment, that if they do implement regulation and slow down development in their region, then it just gives an edge to the regions that aren't regulating. So, yeah, it's a huge question and yet another uncertainty in the IPO for anthropic.

28:04Right, bringing us back to the slide.

28:06Debs: Sure. what there has to be for$2 trillion to hold. CapEx earns a return, margin improve a scale. Okay, yeah, I kind of agree that these are some of the things actually that need to hold true enterprise stickiness, safety record that stays clean. Okay, yeah, actually it's not a crazy list of risk factors, I suppose you want to call it, or like things that need to stay true or become true. And there are some questions around all these, right? Yeah, but ultimately, this is the question that the investors need to have answered over the course of SlideJek. And, you know, fair play to putting this at the end, you know, in terms of being the kind of the closing remarks, that this is what investors really care about.

28:47If they're being asked to pay in for a$2 trillion valuation, can you justify that? What are the key elements that need to stack up for that valuation? And almost this becomes more important, given that there is news flow that for the Anthropic IPO, there is, I think, rumoured to be $10 billion investment expected from NVIDIA as an anchor investor, who are clearly not arm's length here. They are part of the ecosystem because they're providing some of the compute. And, you know, you could argue that they are, you know, by participating in the IPO, they will help to massage the valuation you know and it's you know it's all legit but ultimately you know if other investors are participating they need to justify to themselves that this is a fair valuation and not just a result of you know what nvidia are paying at you know given that they're also you know one of the suppliers to uh to anthropic i mean by the way the more eligible

29:54Debs: manual we're tight on time so we'll skip through the one pretty pretty quick i think which is which which is totally fine. But the one thing, if this were a really good pitch book, these things would be covered somewhere in the pitch book, right? It's like, here's why we think, here's how the capex is a return. Here's why we think the margins are going to be stable slash improve over time. Like here, we're just kind of ending with some questions kind of thing. It's like, yeah, these are big things that need to be true in order for you to invest. But the whole point of this pitch deck is to sell the investor on investing and try to answer some of these head on.

30:27Debs: and that's not really happening here. Yeah. So, okay. I'm going to stop sharing this one. I'm going to share the Astra. Oh, look at the colors. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay. All right. $2 trillion roadshow. AI expands human capability. Yep, sure. Sure, sure. 65 billion run rate. All right. Talking the same numbers. 300 ,000 business customers, a thousand businesses over a million a million dollars annualized spend I'm actually surprised that's not higher to be honest why enterprise is too cloud sure visible safety eight of the fortune 10 okay that's that's a helpful metric to have pulled out okay management team photos I mean like okay visually this one looks I think better I have a bug there with the photos having the foreheads the cut off foreheads yeah

31:25apart from these little niggles so from a graphics perspective visually it's much more impressive than the fabulist yeah yeah and by by the way this was this was zero re-prompting this

31:38Debs: was just what we got to begin with so you know on a first on a first stab like not not bad yeah Okay, what is this? 3.04 trillion. Is this the TAM today? 3.04 trillion up to 30 trillion in the future. Okay, so this stuck with more of a round number. It could be a bit more visually interesting in terms of up and to the right or something, but we'll take it. Cloud code turns intent into software. Actually, the language in this one is a bit nicer. it reads a bit more marketee for lack of a better word and everyday work delegate a task, review the result we do a lot of that don't we oh yeah let's see, developer platform expands distribution okay time at cloud code more work per customer capital will serve the next wave of demand okay what is going on here so here we go useful information we all care about this when there's an ipo is knowing what the company was previously valued at from previous fundraising rounds so it's quite nice to have this summary of the previous valuations and i mean i know it's you know it is a leap from may 2026 where the post-money valuation was 965 billion so just under a trillion dollars they're basically just doubling in what five months yeah five months but it's just useful context isn't it um and it's something that We didn't have any other slide deck.

33:08So I do quite like that.

33:10Debs: Yeah. Also, I mean, to be fair, God, I mean, on the rounds actually raised February to May, also more than doubled, almost tripled. So, okay. All right. Demand scale rapidly. Oh, up to the right. Like, yep. Yep. We know that. The risks are material. Okay. I'm not sure I'd leave with that in my risk page. Do we have existential? no i think they have governance and safety trade-offs so it's much more muted in the actual risk discussion than the headline yeah i mean catastrophic misuse sure that's a like that's a thing um okay okay i think this is really interesting as well i mean in reality this probably raises more questions than answers but it does really provide you with a nice shopping list of what the numbers that investors are going to hone in on once those numbers are available.

34:06So it's clear that we don't have any of this information at the moment. It just has management input against each of these. But as soon as the S1 comes out and once they're on the road doing the marketing, the investors will be all over these financials. Definitely they care about the revenue, they care about the gross profit margins, you know, and, you know, to a certain extent you know the components of the cost structure you know there's a huge you know question about trading costs um and you know and other expenses of the business i would say how do

34:37Debs: you how do you think about return on capex spend here um i'm i'm really i'm really interested to see how all these guys really articulate the like the data center build out cost and how you make sense of the cash burn and all that, right? Because like, you know, revenue is great. But why do we invest in businesses ultimately at the end of the day? Because they're cash machines, right? And that's the whole point of the good old DCF to figure out, all right, what's the value of all the cash? Right now, there's not much of that. Yeah, absolutely. A lot of cash being lit on fire right now. So trying to articulate what the actual return on spend is for that, I think is going to be, I'm interested to see how they present it and how they spin it.

35:25Absolutely. We've already mentioned the importance of revenue mix and retention of revenues as well. That's another area that investors are definitely going to be crawling all over once the numbers are available and the company are on the roadshow. Okay, what's next?

35:41Debs: We got our summary page, what$2 trillion has to buy. Okay. This, I think, is quite a useful slide in the sense of it provides some valuation data. One of the key metrics that we do look at, of course, with IPOs is a revenue multiple. And I do remember that SpaceX was being marketed on 100 times revenue multiple. It was successfully IPO'd on that multiple. The multiple here, just under 31 times, looks a little bit more sensible, dare I say it. I know compared to the numbers that you're used to, Graham, in private credit world, this still looks crazy. It does. But yeah, I mean, it's actually in line with what we've seen for some other tech IPOs.

36:20So it isn't actually in that world so crazy. But yeah, it's good to have that kind of information in the slide deck.

36:28Debs: If I'm honest, though, still, they're both kind of a meh. Like no one's actually going to investors with either of these decks as presented. So I don't think we're in the realm of that chat CPT commercial from a couple of weeks ago where you just stand in front of a TV and you're like, make me the best presentation I've ever seen while I go play tennis. Like that's not here yet. Yeah. And can I just say that as we're kind of evidencing, letting the machine do the work for you doesn't mean you can present that. I mean, we are kind of going through this going, what can we see here? You need to then internalize the information to be able to present that to the client.

37:06Yeah, yeah, yeah, no. 100%.

37:08Debs: I mean, I was using it to pull together an exercise yesterday and there's a lot of okay, we got to change this. We got to change that. This doesn't make sense. You know, that gets better. It's getting better and it will get even better, which is great. But right now it's still, you know, it's still been back and forth. Absolutely. So what else have we got? We're near the end of the slide deck. Or is that the final slide? That's the last page. Yeah. Brilliant. Okay. So not a bad job. The first evidence we have of chat GPT outperforming Anthropic. Ironically, in respect to the Anthropic IPO marketing slide deck.

37:47I know, I know. You'd

37:47Debs: expect to say, oh, Anthropic Roadshow presentation as put together by ChatGPT. That's fine. But just wait till 2027. Something better is coming. Yeah, absolutely. But anyway, so I think hopefully, you know, I think a nice little compare and contrast, but also a nice way to explore what sort of content we see in a marketing slide deck for a roadshow and some of the key questions that investors are focused on when they are in those roadshow meetings. Yeah, and no doubt we will actually take a look at the real presentations when we get our hands on them. Then we'll compare, contrast and see who does better, the real bankers or Astra.

38:29Well, we would hope the real bankers, but we look forward to seeing the detail. Absolutely. Well, I hope everyone's enjoyed listening to this week's episode of What's the Big Deal. I hope you've enjoyed a deep dive into marketing roadshow slide decks and also a little compare and contrast there between Anthropik and OpenAI. That's all we've got time for this week. Thanks so much for me and over to Graham.

38:54Debs: Thanks, everyone. We'll see you same time next week. Take care.