An Inside Look at the Drone War in Ukraine

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0:17From the opinion pages of The Wall Street Journal, this is Potomac Watch. The wars in Ukraine and Iran have demonstrated how modern warfare is changing. Data and drones can help a smaller power resist a larger one. And there are lessons for the future of the U.S. military. Jillian Melcher recently traveled to Ukraine for a couple of weeks and got a bird's eye view of the drone war there from the front lines. That's our subject today on Potomac Watch. Welcome. I'm Paul Gigo, editor of the Opinion Pages of the Wall Street Journal. And my guest today is the aforementioned and well-traveled Jillian Melcher, now safely back home in London.

1:05Welcome, Jillian. Good to have you back, safe and sound. Thank you for having me. So this was your, I think, eighth trip to Ukraine since the war began in February 2022. 2022. And before we get to your visit for the front lines, I want you to give our listeners a little perspective on what you learned this trip that was different than what you had seen in previous trips, I think particularly the mood among Ukrainians and how the war is going. Yeah. So I was thinking back on this and I was there almost a year before exactly, and the situation's pretty much flipped. Back a year ago, I was hearing a lot of concern about manpower issues, about the strength of that fortress belch, that's the defensive line in eastern Ukraine, that has stopped the Russians from advancing further, but felt pretty good about the situation in the air.

1:54This time, it was the opposite situation. I was hearing a lot about how Ukraine is making really smart use of technology, and that's in a large way offset their manpower disparity. Like, I was pretty shocked to hear as we were talking about whether the Russians would mobilize. Last year, that would have been a huge concern. This year, I was hearing commanders saying that's just going to end up meaning more dead Russians. But the situation in the air has really deteriorated. And that's two factors this time. One of them is that Ukraine is dangerously short on patriots. That is the interceptor, the only one that can reliably take down ballistic missiles from Russia.

2:32But second and an equally pressing challenge is that, you know, you've got this hasty innovation cycle in Ukraine where one side comes up with something new. It takes a while for the other side to adjust. And what Russia has done right now is create jet-powered drones. They're incredibly fast. And that's a problem because Ukrainian drone interceptors that were taking down normal Shahids can't quite cache these. And so you've got a lower interception rate and not a good air defense. So those two things combined are creating a pretty dangerous situation in the skies. Jillian, just on the air war, the lack of interceptors is going to be particular trouble here in the winter, I gather, as the winter approaches, because Russia is targeting not only civilian targets, but also the energy power plants and infrastructure.

3:19How are they going to make up for the shortfall that is Ukraine in these interceptors? You know, it's really tough. So So on the jet-powered drones, the innovation cycle is plowing ahead. They're testing, and the issue is going to be scaling. The ballistic missile threat is a tougher one, though, to deal with. If you don't have it, you kind of just have to take the hits of the ballistic missile attacks. How many are there a night? You know, it depends on the night. But what Russia is doing is combining drone attacks with, I mean, we're talking hundreds of drones at times, with ballistic missiles.

3:49And the intent is to overwhelm Ukraine's air defenses. So when I was talking to people this year, I was hearing about how their air defense system has grown a lot more sophisticated. It's layered. They have actually like sensors and radars all the way from the front line to the capital. So they can pick up on where these drones and missiles are. And also they're using AI to analyze basically like where it's flying, how fast, what the most efficient and cheapest means of taking those air threats out are. But when you don't have interceptors, some of them are going to get through. And that's a real problem.

4:22I mean, Ukrainian energy is trying to diversify locations, be a little bit more decentralized. And as I was talking to weapons manufacturers, they were saying that that's a contingency that they've planned for as well. They're looking at how to move production, in some cases, underground. So it's a little bit more protected. In some cases, they're looking at how they can partner with countries elsewhere in Europe to keep some of the production going. But there's no kidding here that they're pretty vulnerable headed into this winter. And there are some things that the U.S. can do to help. I also just want to say, you know, Ukraine's air defenses are strained, but Russian air defenses are also quite strained.

4:58And Ukraine is exploiting that. So if you were looking at the war in the skies, I think that is something that has to be mentioned, that it's happening on both sides, that air defenses are running thin. Yeah, that's a good point. On the other hand, Russia just has more resources to throw at the air war. I mean, and that's the problem. How does that affect morale on the ground in Ukraine? Because it's incredibly difficult to get bombarded night after night, knowing that some are going to simply get through. I mean, you can go into the bunkers, as the Ukrainians do in cities, but sometimes they're going to surprise you.

5:30You're not going to get there. And then sometimes, you know, these things land on apartment buildings. Yeah, today's been a rough day for Kiev. I was actually looking at some of the images. and there was a, I believe it was a drone that got through, hit the National Academy of Sciences. This is in downtown Kiev, like very close to where I stay sometimes while I'm out there. And the images were just horrifying. You had smoke billowing out, people hanging out of the windows, trying to make it down to ladders. And that's becoming the day-to-day norm in the capital. And, you know, as I was talking to the sources, they were saying that the front line is hundreds of miles away, but Ukraine is considering designating Kiev a frontline city.

6:09Just in terms of how that's having an effect on morale, part of it is it's very difficult to live night by night under the threat of this. Your sleep gets interrupted. There's a huge psychological warfare component. But you're also starting to see Russia ramp up attacks during the day. So this just feels pretty relentless. And I think as it's getting colder, people are breaking out their sweaters, the temperatures are dipping, the leaves are changing. As I was talking to people, I heard a lot of dread, just a sense that this is going to be a really difficult winter. Asked what that meant for peace negotiations.

6:40And I was hearing that they're almost in a strategic dilemma here, that they're stuck between a rock and a hard place. Because if you wanted to make concessions and you felt things would get better, that's one thing. But Russia wants all of Ukraine. It wants to take its freedom. They don't believe that any peace commitments Putin would make not to advance further would hold up. And so they're kind of just in a situation where they feel like they can't compromise and will have to endure it. Is there any way that they can get more interceptors? I mean, you and I have talked about the F-16 jets that they have as being the best defense against these jet drones.

7:14They can target them and take them out. But F-16s are used so often that they require maintenance. And the maintenance cycle where they go in Belgium is just incredibly slow, far slower than it would be if they were done in the United States. So I guess the United States can help in that way. Europe could help in that way. But is there any way they can get more interceptors from Europe and the U.S.? I mean, the U.S. claims it doesn't have enough of its own. Yeah, there's a global shortage for sure. And I want to touch on that F-16 issue because I think it's a really critical one. That is the best way right now to take out a jet-powered drone.

7:51If F-16s were made for this, it's a cheap way to do it. Ukraine is in a weird situation where for I think the first time in the war, they have more pilots than planes available. And the fact that this is taking sometimes 40 weeks in Belgium is a scandal and it's a preventable scandal. And so I think Europe needs to step up and at least loan them some F-16s while these repairs drag on and on. Now, just in terms of on the Patriot side, the approach has been to try to intercept the arrows and Ukraine sometimes has to do that. But what they're not getting the opportunity to make full advantage of is going after the Archer.

8:24And I was talking to folks who were involved in some of the mid-range to long-range strikes on occupied territory. Just to be clear for listeners, what you're talking about is going after the Russian launchers that are either in Russia proper or in the parts of Ukraine that are occupied by Russian forces. Yeah, that's correct. And Ukraine has been using Starlink to take out some of those ballistic missile launchers in Crimea. And that's actually something that they can do if they have good intelligence. Starlink gives you visibility. Those launchers go up, they're in place for about half an hour.

8:58You have that window, but without Starlink and that visibility, it's tough to do it in that narrow window. But since Ukraine started striking those launchers in Crimea, you've actually seen a pretty significant decrease in the number of missile attacks launched from Crimea. So I think we've already got a test case here of this working. Ukraine doesn't have Starlink access in the same way over Russia, and that's something that The U.S. could provide like with a flip of a switch, basically, and it would make a huge difference for Ukraine's ability to survive this winter. Well, why doesn't it have access to do that in Russia proper?

9:31Is that a decision that Elon Musk, whose company provides Starlink, has made? Or is that something that the U.S. government has made a decision on? My reporting is that it's a Musk decision, but the U.S. government could really help push the needle in the right way on this. So, I mean, this is speculative. I haven't talked to Elon Musk about this. But some of the concerns I hear when I talk about this are that the Russians might try to intercept satellites in space, might do a cyber attack. But if you intercept those satellites in space, you're creating space debris. And that basically puts Russian space infrastructure, Chinese space infrastructure at risk.

10:06So I am skeptical that Russia would do that. On the cyber part, valid concern. But this has become U.S. critical infrastructure, and we should be hardening that anyway. That's something that the U.S. government could help with. I think it's just kind of, you know, we've seen this again and again throughout the course of the war, a risk aversion about how Russia is going to escalate. And that's ended up tying our response. But it's really ended up inhibiting the Ukrainians' ability to fight this war efficiently. Well, we've editorialized in favor of giving Ukraine access to Starlink to target launchers and military sites in Russia.

10:39It doesn't make sense to me that that should be limited. it. We are going to take a break and when we come back, we'll talk more with Jillian Melchor about her recent trip to Ukraine and the front lines when we come back. At Janice Henderson, we strive to deliver better outcomes through insight-led investing, innovation for clients, and a partnership approach that's core to our identity. I'm Jessica Lianzini, head of fixed income client portfolio management. I'm passionate about my role in investments. It allows me to partner with our clients, simplify fixed income, and support them in achieving better outcomes for their clients.

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12:10Welcome back. I'm Paul Zhigo here on Potomac Watch, the daily podcast of Wall Street Journal Opinion, and I am here with Jillian Melcher. All right, let's talk about your fascinating trip that you wrote about on the weekend to the front lines on southeastern Ukraine, where you interviewed Robert Megyar Bravdi, the commander of Ukraine's unmanned systems forces. This is the drone warfare, and it was fascinating. You went to his headquarters in southeastern Ukraine, a location that for obvious reasons is classified. But you really got an insight into just how fast the war changes and how the front line is so different than what it was even at the start of this war, even two years ago in this war.

12:51And it's really become a kind of drone technological war in this 30-mile so-called kill zone, which is where the front line is contested. And anybody from either side who tries to take territory there, and right now it's the Russians who are trying to take it. They can be killed very fast. Tell us how his command works. Yeah, so this was absolutely fascinating. Basically, you go into the command center and it looks like NASA headquarters. There are screens everywhere. Think Houston, we have a problem kind of scene. But this is actually creating a solution for Ukraine. And the way that it works is they are running, and it's not just the unmanned systems forces, this is across Ukrainian armed forces.

13:32They're using a battlefield management system called Delta. And this is basically pulling data from every single sensor, every single radar, every drone, whether it's flying a strike or reconnaissance mission is taking video. I mean, just the amount of data coming in is gobsmacking and you can see it on the screens. And so as drone pilots are flying out, they're able to basically like, it kind of looks like Google Maps, drop a pin anytime they see something interesting. It sends a message out to everybody else in that area with an available effector or resource that you can go and attack. And so my guide to this center was basically saying that the battlefield is more or less transparent.

14:11I could see that. And that once they spot the enemy, it's effectively the end of the enemy. And that kill chain, as we call it, is so quick. You know, I was sitting there watching and from the aerial view, you could see a drone flying over, you could see movement. It was a Russian soldier. Another drone was zooming in toward him. And then there was a puff of smoke and I didn't see any more movement. But I think that this is, more or less explaining how Ukraine is doing what it's doing. You know, the Finnish government was saying that the kill ratio or casualty ratio has gone from one to three last year to about one to eight.

14:46With unmanned systems forces, it's even higher than that. That is one Ukrainian KIA or wounded in action versus eight Russian KIA or wounded. Yeah, that is the ratio. And they're using technology. The idea is basically that a very small Soviet army can't take on a very big the Soviet army. And so they've got to use technology to maximize and to become more effective and efficient. And so they're talking about creating this infrastructure. And I mean, when we're talking about this huge amount of data going into the Delta system, some of it is to accelerate that kill chain and take Russians out fast.

15:22But some of it is also a cost thing. So as they're collecting data, they can see, for example, this is a Russian armored vehicle. We know that every time we've struck it with this specific payload, it's only caused damage, whereas this specific payload, it takes the tank out altogether. We also know that one kind of explosive is more costly than another kind. And so they're able to optimize what they use to strike in a way that's just staggering. I mean, like corporate style spreadsheets of this. And that's, if you're a country that is strapped for resources in addition to manpower, this is how you win the war.

15:57It's by becoming more efficient in these data-driven, quickly actionable ways. And the battlefield shifts in terms of the drones that are effective or not very quickly. Something like it can be 10 days to two weeks where a particular kind of drone with its software design and electronics works against the Russians, but then the Russians see that, they will adapt their defenses or their drones accordingly. And then those original Ukrainian drones don't work. I guess Commander Brovdy has to send that fact and the data back to the manufacturers who come up with new, adapt the drones, adapt the software.

16:40Is that what happens? Yeah, that is sometimes what happens. So this data, they're able to tell what's effective, what percent of the time, and they can send that back to manufacturers to work on. But also what we're seeing a lot is the frontline units have actual like R &D shops in house and they're able to find a drone. Say, for example, the video camera always goes a little bit weird at a certain part of the flight. Those R &D engineers can tinker with it and figure out what works the same day and send it out. And if it works well, they can call the manufacturer up and say, hey, we did this.

17:15Could you please implement it? And so sometimes it's a matter of like two to three days as opposed to a couple of weeks. And so that innovation cycle is just extraordinarily rapid. I think the other thing that doesn't get as much attention is that those frontline units are also innovating in terms of tactics. So there's a Ukrainian counteroffensive that's going on right now, Operation Vivaldi. And I was hearing from one of the commanders about how they actually airlifted in ground drones behind Russian positions, dropped them off. They were kamikaze ground drones laden with explosives, and they started going off in Russian positions and just causing absolute chaos.

17:52The Russians didn't know what had hit them because they didn't know that you could do that. And so I expect that that kind of tactical success in this one case is now going to be replicated across the battlefield. And the tactics are as much a part of the innovation cycle as the hardware. And this counteroffensive is an attempt to take back some territory in the Ukrainian East? Yeah, but not only. I mean, this is a pretty significant operation. So I talked about that fortress belt. This is the Ukrainian stronghold in the east that's kept the Russians from pushing further into Ukraine. Russians have been bashing against this for years, expecting to break through.

18:26They are just not getting very far with it. So the plan this summer was to go up on the north, go down in the south, break through on the brittle ends and encircle the fortress belt and bypass it altogether. This is the Russian strategy. Yeah, this is the Russian strategy. This counteroffensive not only took back territory on the northern edge, but it thwarted the Russian effort to do that. And so it's preserving the fortress belt in a really key location. But of course, it's got to be much heavier risk for the Ukrainians to take territory if they're in this kill zone, because the casualty list must be pretty high.

19:01Yeah, I'd be interested to see what that is. That's something they actually don't talk about, and that's not surprising. Sure. But one of the things that I was hearing is they've given a lot of thought about how to restore maneuver. Right now, if you're a tanker, you're an armored vehicle, you're pretty much as vulnerable, if not more vulnerable than infantry. That's, by the way, something that the West needs to think about. But they were able to do some interesting things to restore maneuver. And I'm hearing that part of that is through mid-range strikes on Russian energy. Some of the Russian electronic warfare posts require generators and a lot of power.

19:35So if you're starting fuel lines, you start to end up taking out Russia's ability to do electronic warfare. So you might create gaps in their visibility that allow you to advance. Also just using unmanned systems in a way that it would be too dangerous to put infantry forward on the offensive, but you can use a drone to conduct an offensive and replace the man. All right. So we're in a, I guess, a rough stalemate here with attempts on either side to try to gain some territory and gain an advantage. We are going to take another break When we come back, we'll talk to Jillian Melcher about the hybrid war that Russia is conducting with NATO countries in Europe when we come back.

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20:51Play the Opinion Potomac Watch Podcast. That is, play the Opinion Potomac Watch Podcast. From the opinion pages of The Wall Street Journal, this is Potomac Watch. Welcome back. I'm Paul Gigo here on Potomac Watch with editorial page writer Jillian Melcher. I was struck by a line in your piece in the interview with Major Bravdi where you said that because the battlefield changes so fast and the technology needed to compete on the battlefield changes so fast, Today's best drone will be obsolete by the time it rolls off torpid Western production lines. That's a warning to the United States. There's a sense in which classic American military production is you put in an order for 50 jets or you put in the order for 1 ,000 drones, you roll them out and then you're fined.

21:47You put them in your stocks and your weapons caches and you call them up when you need it. But that's not necessarily the way things will work anymore. You need almost to have almost real time battlefield intelligence and adaptation to be able to create the proper weapon, the proper drone. Yeah, that's right. And I think when we're talking about the drone wars in the same way that we talk about AI and warfare, it's really easy to, I guess, get lost in the term drone or AI and miss the bigger picture. So what Ukraine is doing is, and Brovdy was pointing this out, it's not that it has the best drone.

22:21It's that it's creating an ecosystem for fighting in a new way. And what that looks like is thinking about ways that you can be charting what's happening on the battlefield and collecting reliable data about it. Having manufacturers and weapons producers that are close enough in coordination with your soldiers that they understand what's actually happening in real time. Cutting red tape in a way that they are able to innovate really fast to match that change. you know, giving your soldiers enough control and personal initiative that if they see something, they can act on it fast without having to seek command.

22:57So you need to set those parameters in advance so that they know what they can and cannot do. But it's basically using data and using efficiency and using personal initiative to speed things up. And that if you don't start doing that on the Western side, I mean, you could have the best drone, but it may be really expensive. You may have, I don't know, 100 of them. Who knows if they work? Best case scenario, they do, and you're out after 100, you're going to be in real trouble. Well, it's fascinating and a real challenge to our war planners and the commanders as they try to meet this changing battlefield.

23:34Let's talk about diplomacy for a second. President Trump has said he's optimistic about peace talks. He has invited Vladimir Putin to go to the G20 meeting that President Trump is hosting in Florida in December. That's gotten some protests, that invitation from America's Congress, as well as European allies and others, given Putin has not changed at all. Do you see any signs, any evidence that Putin is really interested in serious peace talks with Ukraine? I do not. What I'm seeing, and I've seen this for the past many years, is that Putin is trying to achieve through negotiations what he's been unable to achieve on the battlefield.

24:21His demands haven't changed. He wants Ukraine to not only give up the territory that Russia currently occupies, but to give up additional terrain. And some of those areas, like the Fortress Belt, would leave Ukraine in a much worse defensive position. Those demands haven't changed. His assault on civilians has not changed. He's been offered repeated ceasefires by the Ukrainians and has opted not to take them. This is an intractable position. And when I'm talking to the Ukrainians, what I hear is that he's not going to change his mind until this becomes too painful for him. And so they're talking a lot about the importance of Western sanctions, but also what Ukraine is calling kinetic sanctions.

25:00That's the long-range strikes that Ukraine is carrying out on Russian military infrastructure, Russian energy, and it is having a real effect. And they feel like if they can keep that up, there's potential to make this not worth it for Putin. But that is their hope, that they can achieve this through fighting because they don't see Putin wanting to give in unless he can pocket major concessions. And Putin still hasn't gone to a large-scale draft and mobilization, has he? Especially, particularly in the big cities where that would become politically more dangerous? Well, Russia had just had so-called elections.

25:35And so the theory has been that he would hold off through those. I mean, those elections are completely rigged, but he's going to portray them as a referendum on the war on Ukraine, that it's popular. It is not popular. But I think everybody's expecting, you know, those elections have just happened, that the mobilization is going to happen after that. Really? And he could call up hundreds of thousands of young men? Could he do that many? Yeah, the statistic that I have heard is 300 ,000. 300 ,000. But Ukrainians are feeling a lot more confident about their ability to handle that this year. Well, yeah.

26:06If they're really simply drone fodder on the front lines, then they don't pose a threat. I mean, even those kinds of numbers, if they can't escape this kill zone. Well, it's still up in the air whether Ukraine can continue to resist Russian aggression. It is, in my view, so much in the interest of the United States and the West to make sure it can do that. And if you want some evidence of that, just look at what Russia's been doing with this so-called hybrid war against NATO countries in Europe. What we mean by that is it's not a full-scale invasion of the kind they've done, Russia's done with Ukraine, but it's sending in drones to test the response from NATO.

26:47It's sending in cyber, making cyber attacks on some of these countries. It's submarine undersea subs or drones that cut cables, undersea cables, or aerial drones that surveil NATO defense sites. All these things have been taking place across Europe. And yet NATO's response has been to protest loudly and do nothing. Yeah, it's a huge problem. I mean, I think that Russia is kind of boiling the lobster here. You had like a couple of things happen and then more and more happen. And it seems like this year, every couple of weeks, you hear about something really serious. And I feel like this is a story that should have been much bigger this fall is there was a drone that was spotted.

27:30The Germans have attributed this to Russia. It was at a German airport and it ended up being laden with explosives. The only reason that this thing did not go off is because the detonator failed. This was at the Leipzig airport. Yeah. And it's a huge deal. I mean, I was talking to a German politician who was walking through what could have happened. I mean, there were civilians at that airport. You're talking about explosives going off on a runway. This could have been a mass casualty event. And it's not like they were able to thwart it. They didn't spot it until it was there and it was too late.

28:00They just got lucky with a faulty detonator. And I think that Europe cannot expect to continue to be this lucky. Right. And the question is, of course, how do you respond? And if you do, what do you do if then Putin escalates? I think the real concern I have, a lot of people discount this and say, oh, come on, Putin would never do what I'm about to describe. But it's possible he could make some kind of a salient into one of these countries, say, in the name of protecting Russian, ethnic Russians in the Baltics, or say, in hot pursuit of some, what he claims is some intrusion into Russian territory by NATO.

28:39And then what do you do? Is there an organized NATO response of some kind? And the signal the president of the United States sends by inviting Putin to Florida amid this hybrid war is exactly the wrong signal you want to send to Putin. It tells him you can get away with this. That's risky. Yeah, that absolutely is. I mean, what you're describing is a nightmare scenario in so many different ways. I'm really concerned about that Baltic scenario because I think one of the lessons from the kill zone in Ukraine is that once you push in and you seize territory, it's very difficult to go on the offensive and take that territory back.

29:15You know, going out and seeing some of the NATO exercises in the Baltics, one of the things I saw was efforts to get better at drones, but it taken too slow. Those drones not running off the production lines fast enough and still a sense that we can drive tanks in and that will be enough. It's not going to be enough. And then I think if you also think about vulnerabilities, I mean, look how fast we're burning through our air defenses. Russia is creating very cheap drones, jet-powered drones. You start sending those into Europe, a lot of critical infrastructure is within range. Are we confident that we have enough things on hand to intercept it?

29:52And are those things cost-effective? Because Russia is scaling up in a way that is very difficult to counter if you are relying on expensive interceptors. And those are the sort of, you know, strategic things that it's better for the West to think about now. Commander Brovdy was saying this, that in order to keep up with your adversary, you at least need to match what they have. I don't think that Europe is doing that. But in order to deter, you need to have more. And I certainly don't think that Europe has done that. And what we're seeing with this sort of boiling a lobster hybrid aggression that Russia is carrying out is a failure of deterrence.

30:29I will flag, I think there's one really good obvious option for Europe to restore some deterrence. Got a lot of money in Russian assets sitting in Europe. That would be a nice thing to confiscate right now and send a powerful message, and Ukraine could really use the money. Well, we have argued for that for four years to no avail so far, but I agree it would be the right thing to do, and it would get Putin's attention. I think the people who say, oh, well, Putin would never take on NATO, Look at how much it has struggled with the Ukrainian military. Well, it has struggled with the Ukrainian military.

31:04But if Putin's goal is to show that NATO is, in fact, a paper tiger, that it lacks the will to resist Russia, and that NATO is not united in responding to Putin aggression, then he's accomplished a great deal in undermining the overall alliance. All right. So we'll leave it at there. Thanks, Jillian, for your intrepid reporting in Ukraine. And I think what Jillian is talking, what you've heard her talk about, is a real credit to her reporting over the last few years, source building, credibility building, where she can build that trust and those sources inside Ukraine, where they'll bring her to the front lines and she can get this view that so few journalists get.

31:46So thank you for that, Jillian. Thank you all for listening to Potomac Watch. We are here every day and we'll be here tomorrow. Please join us.

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