Races in Minnesota and Michigan May Decide Senate Control

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0:46Tight races from Alaska through Kansas, Texas, Minnesota, and Michigan to Maine will determine who has the majority in the final two years of the Trump presidency. So those races are the subject of our Potomac Watch today. Welcome, I'm Paul Gigo, the Wall Street Journal opinion pages, and I'm here with a couple of my colleagues who've been following those races, Kim Strassel and Barton Swain. Barton, let's start in Minnesota, where you have been reporting on the race and following the race between Peggy Flanagan, who is the current lieutenant governor trying to go to the Senate, and Michelle Tafoya, a Republican upstart, former sports reporter of well-known to all football fans.

1:32She's the Republican challenger. And this race is remarkably close considering the year we're in. President Trump's approval rating is down. And the state of Minnesota, Why is it so close? It is close. And Minnesota hasn't elected a Republican statewide since, I don't know, Tim Pawlenty. It's been a long time. Yeah, I think it's close for two reasons. And the first is that Michelle Tafoya is an impressive candidate. She's articulate. She's great on camera. She's, you know, that was her career. Many listeners, viewers will know her as a sideline reporter for NBC Sports for years. She acquitted herself very well in the debate.

2:11and also she keeps the focus of her campaign on state issues, which we'll get to without sort of broadening it into all kinds of cultural debates, etc. She does not come across as extreme in any way. She's definitely not a sort of MAGA loyalist. And then you have Peggy Flanagan, who is the state's lieutenant governor and has been for eight years. She, of course, is weighed down by the Somali fraud scandal that started about three years ago when prosecutors started uncovering the abuse of all sorts of anti-poverty programs. The costs of that are unknown, but it could go as high as$9 billion, perhaps more.

2:53And Flanagan has tied herself very closely to Governor Tim Walls. Now, Tim Walls was intending to run for a third term, and the scandal is so egregious that he opted not to run. So now Flanagan has tried, I think, not very convincingly to say, well, she wasn't in on the fraud side of things. That was not her purview. She was more concerned with health care and things of that nature. This is not really believable. In fact, the Tafoya campaign makes a big deal of this. And I went back and checked. And it's true that from the beginning, the administration has styled itself the Walls-Flanagan administration, which is sort of unusual in American politics.

3:38So she's distancing herself. She says, I didn't have the fraud portfolio. Is that it? Yeah, yeah, yeah. But she did have the health care expanding coverage portfolio, which is the government health care portfolio, which is Medicaid. Right, right, right. Exactly. Yes. So the very programs that were being abused weren't somehow under her purview. So her campaign, I think it's fair to say that she is based almost entirely on tying Tafoya to Trump. And of course, Tafoya is sort of doesn't distances herself from Trump in a lot of ways. And I mentioned in the piece a couple of weeks ago, Trump was in a rally in Ohio and he was going off on Ilhan Omar, who, of course, is a Minnesota congresswoman and sort of tied into this Somali community and the abuse and so on.

4:33And Trump said, and you got to vote for it. And he's sort of peering into the teleprompter, not knowing what he's reading, said, you got to vote for Michelle Tafoya. And, you know, minutes later, I think the Flanagan campaign sent out a note saying Trump endorsed Tafoya. You know, that's evidence enough for voters to vote for Flanagan. I'm not sure that's working. She mentions Trump in every campaign event. Every press release has Trump's name 50 times. This is Flanagan. Yeah, Flanagan's. So is that going to be enough? He is unpopular in Minnesota, but is he so unpopular that the mere mention of his name in the same sentence with Tafoya is going to be enough?

5:14I have my doubts. Kim, this is an interesting race because not merely the closeness of it, but it's a test of whether or not at some level a party can be punished, that voters will punish a party for actually egregious malgovernance. The Waltz and Flanagan handling of this. Now, remember, this isn't just a Trump administration uncovering this. This started, as Barton said, in the Biden administration. And give them credit for that. They started digging into this, but totally without the help of the Waltz administration in Minnesota, which in fact, rather studiously avoided investigating the fraud because it was a core constituency of theirs that were some of the most egregious practitioners.

6:02And by the way, there have been indictments brought on this. So this is not just allegations and that it's their core programs, right? And the Lulz administration is pretty left wing. It's all about delivering more money to these constituents. So you don't want to touch any of the money because they measure success by how much money goes out, not whether it actually achieves the results that they hope for. That and also there's good evidence that has come out through this investigation that not only did they want to make sure that the money kept rolling. And remember, the way all of this is set up as well, too, is that it's the federal government that covers the tab for most of the money that's going out the door.

6:43So the more people you can get on the books, the more money, essentially free money, Minnesota is getting. So they didn't want to touch it for that reason. But the other reason, and the evidence has come out, is that they were concerned about political ramifications. They know that they have a very strong constituency in a lot of these communities that it turns out where all the fraud was happening. And they were worried that there would be political blowback if they were to come out and blow the whistle, in particular in some of these Somali communities, et cetera. So this is a terrible look.

7:12by some estimates, maybe$9 billion worth of fraud. I mean, it's just a crazy number. There are people that have been going to jail as felons for this. And the notion, Peggy Flanagan saying, well, I had nothing. Like that really was just wasn't my thing. Like I just looked after homeless people does not pass the sniff test. And this is, to Foy, is huge opening. That and the fact that, as Barton mentioned, she's presenting herself as a very independent thinker, not your traditional Republican. And she's very happy I got to interview on my podcast this week. She'll point out where she's been critical of Trump, aspects of his immigration policy, aspects of his tariffs, questions on the Iran war.

7:53She points out that she's pro-choice. On abortion, you mean? Correct. She's pointing out that unlike a lot of Republicans who are just doubling down, trying to turn out more of the mega base, more Republican voters, she's courting the whole state. She's going to suburbs. She's trying to get crossovers. She's looking. She would love to try to get some ticket splitting. Maybe there's a Democrat that votes for Amy Klobuchar at the top of the ticket for governor, but a Michelle Tafoya as a Republican because they can't bring themselves to reward Peggy Flanagan for the mismanagement of before. And so we'll see if it works.

8:27But I think as a strategy in a blue state, this is a wise one. It's too bad that the Republicans haven't been able on a national basis to maintain any focus on this government reform and anti-fraud mission. Because if they had made this, I think, a priority in the campaign and said, look, we've started to do this the first two years. Give us another chance. We can continue this. We can go further with this because there's a lot more we can do to save you money and to get people working as opposed to on the federal dole welfare rules. That's a lot better theme than, you know, the Save America Act or the ballroom or the Washington Arch or the other things that have become some of the Republican talking points that you hear.

9:19So briefly, Bart, what odds do you give this here? Oh, that's hard. I do note that in polling, of course, Tafoya is about three points down. But if you dig into those numbers, you see a fairly large number of undecideds. And I will note also, and this point was made to me by a couple of politicos in Minnesota, there are two other statewide races getting some attention. The governor's race, Amy Klobuchar and Lisa DeMuth is a Republican. Amy Klobuchar, of course, is Democrat. Klobuchar is almost certainly going to win that race. And then for Attorney General Keith Ellison and Jim Schultz, a rematch, Ellison is very likely going to win that race.

10:00And Minnesotans apparently tend to split their tickets a lot. And the thought is that a lot of those independents and undecideds who end up voting for the two Democrats in those other two races will plump for Tafoya in this race. So I don't know if there's anything to that, But it's very impressive that Tafoya is making it as close as she is in such a blue state. I'm from the upper Midwest, Wisconsin, and they have a history of thinking of Minnesotans and Wisconsinites as good government types, right? They're clean and sober and all of that. Sometimes true, sometimes not. But, you know, all those good Norwegians and Swedish Americans who are up in Minnesota, here's their chance to basically vote for a cleaner government.

10:48We'll see if they do. All right. We are going to take a break. And when we come back, we'll turn to the Michigan Senate race, where there were some fireworks this week in debate when we come back. Your financial life rarely fits between 9 and 5, and the questions shaping your future don't follow a schedule. That's why Citi created Citi Sky, a secure AI member of your Citi wealth team built with the Gemini platform on Google Cloud. Whether expanding your portfolio or planning your future, you'll be able to access tailored wealth guidance on your time. Start building with Gemini at cloud.google.com slash AI.

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12:18Welcome back. I'm Paul Gigo here on Potomac Watch with Kim Strassel and Barton Swaim and talking about the contest for the U.S. Senate. All right, let's turn to another big race, which is the Michigan Senate race, maybe the marquee race in the country, that in the Texas race, I guess. This is the race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, the very progressive Democrat, versus Mike Rogers, a Republican former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, well known in the state. He's run statewide before, lost the last time very narrowly to Elisa Slotkin two years ago, giving it another run here. Let's listen to an excerpt from their debate on Wednesday between the El-Sayed and Rogers.

12:57So being bought off by the Muslim Brotherhood, having donors to his campaign from Hamas that support Hezbollah is not a problem. If you are going to go to the United States Senate, we need to know, are you for America or are you for these terrorist groups overseas? To bring into question, my commitment to the Constitution is really beneath you. I am proud of America. I'm proud to be an American. I'm proud of our Constitution that guarantees all of us the right to pray as we choose to pray. And the question that you would ask that I think is actually really quite shameful as somebody who's actually served under that constitution.

13:33It is shame, shame. Kim, is Mike Rogers making headway with this theme? We know what he's trying to do here. And look, I think some of this is legit. He's posed some questions about El-Sayed's family, his sister and his mother. And there seems to be some real distance there. So I'm not sure that holds much in terms of getting back for him. But this broader question, El-Sayed has sort of brought this on himself, running around, for instance, with Hassan Piker, a man who said that America deserved the 9-11 attack. He's actively, incredibly hostile to Israel. It was really remarkable in the last debate, Paul, he was asked what ought to be the most straightforward question in the world.

14:17Like, who do you view as a bigger threat, Israel or Iran? And remarkably, El-Sayed wouldn't answer the question. He just he said that it was a ridiculous hypothetical. It was it was crazy. So this is what Rogers is trying to do is just sort of point out that this is a person who definitely has sympathized with groups that wish the United States harm. You know, for instance, Hamas at times. I think that he has a better traction in some of the other lines he put out in the debate. In particular, LSAT was asked again that Iran question, is Iran a threat? And again, remarkably, he did actually answer this time.

14:56He said, well, Iran used to be a threat, but it hasn't been a threat since Barack Obama's amazing containment program, which is just, I mean, crazy. And I think Rogers, I mean, look, even most Democrats acknowledge that Iran is a threat. They might not agree with Trump's war policy, but, you know, they have understood that the Obama containment policy was not doing any containing. And I think Rogers was correct in that debate to say, look, if that is your view of Iran, you are a nonstarter for the U.S. Senate. So I think that probably holds more water with voters than maybe some of these other things.

15:30But that's the goal. That's what he's trying to accomplish. El-Sayed's convictions on Israel are very clear, Barton. He has said that he would deny military aid, U.S. military aid to Israel, for example, which puts him on even to the left of most of the Democratic Party, which is moving left on Israel. And he has said that one of his priorities, if he wins election, one of the first priorities will be defeating John Fetterman, fellow Democrat from Pennsylvania, for reelection in 2028 if Fetterman runs, because Fetterman is too pro-Israel. So there's no question that the hostility there on foreign policy is a very different take.

16:12But let's listen to another clip from El-Sayed, this time trying to link Rogers to Mega. You know, it's sad to me. Now, I told you at the outset he was going to make this about MAGA bingo, all of the different buzzwords. At this point, I think everybody playing has already won. Prize for everybody. But here's the thing. When you're winning MAGA bingo, we're all losing because I told you every time that they're trying to distract you, they are picking your pocket. You've got a corporate politician who wants to turn around and do corporate things. I mean, we just got, no, he was flying around on private jets to get his BMW or somebody's BMW fixed.

16:45I've been on a private jet. I don't know about you all. All right. That's your time. Your rebuttal, Congressman Rogers? I mean, this guy is so ridiculous. This is exactly why the biggest coalition we have is Democrats for Rogers. We're doing well with African-Americans in the city of Detroit, in Pontiac and Flint. We're doing exceptionally well with Jewish Democrats who are literally afraid. I've talked to ones with tears in their eyes about the future of their kids and grad kids because of the anger and division that he is laying out on the street. Martin, this is probably the most important race for the Democratic left, I think, even maybe more important than the Paxton race.

17:27They really want to win this one, which is why Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez more or less camped there for a full week, close to a week to try to help El-Sahed. You know, I think Rogers has not run a great campaign, although I will say maybe slightly disagreeing here. Now, I don't know about the connections with the family members and the Muslim Brotherhood, but bringing that stuff up, what has that done? That has made the narrative somewhat about El-Sayed's connection to the Muslim Brotherhood. And that needs to be talked about. You know, there was a letter that El-Sayed wrote to the president of Egypt at the time, Morsi, in 2012.

18:06OK, so El-Sayed was 28 at the time, a grown man, urging Morsi to crack down on sympathizers of the previous government under Mubarak. Morsi, of course, is sort of the founder of Muslim Brotherhood. So this is a serious issue about his loyalties. And I think it's entirely fair to bring up, leaving aside the family members, and also think it's smart for Rogers to reach out to black voters. Too often Republicans lose black support just because they don't try to get it. And in this case, you know, he has a compelling line that, look, this guy, Al-Sayed, he talks about Israel all the time, Israel this, Israel that.

18:44He's more concerned about the Middle East than he is with, you know, Detroit or Flint. I think that's a very effective line. And as I say, it's been a bad campaign run on the Republican side. But I think this has perhaps changed the narrative in a helpful way to the Rogers campaign. Kim, it would be extraordinary, wouldn't it? if El-Sayed, a man of demonstrable left, both on foreign policy and on domestic policy, could win a statewide Senate race in a competitive state like Michigan. Well, and that is exactly why Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez camped out there for a week, as you said. This has become the flagship goal of the progressive left, the Democratic Socialists of America.

19:24They have won some individual House races around the country. Obviously, they've got a little bit of a grip on, you know, New York City. We've got a purported democratic socialist who's about to take over the reins of Washington, D.C. after this next election. But to win a statewide race, and this is how they do it, you know, you get a foothold, you normalize it, you make it sound like, you know, this can be done anywhere, and then, you know, you roll it out in more places. Conversely, Paul, if this fails, it'll be a huge knock to the Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warrens and AOCs of the world.

19:59And that's why you see the amount of money running in. I think it's really unfortunate that this is happening in a year where the environment in general is just so poor for Republicans. But I do think it says something about Rogers that he is nonetheless managing to keep this race competitive in a swing state. We are going to take another break. And when we come back, we'll turn to another Bellwether state, Ohio, where there are some controversies over advertising and some very close races. Don't forget, you can reach the latest episode of Potomac Watch anytime. Just ask your smart speaker, play the opinion Potomac Watch podcast.

20:39That is, play the opinion Potomac Watch podcast. From the opinion pages of the Wall Street Journal, this is Potomac. Potomac Watch. Welcome back. I'm Paul G. Go here on Potomac Watch with Barton Swain and Kim Strassel. All right, let's turn to the state of Ohio where there is a big Senate race. John Husted, the appointed senator replacing J.D. Vance, running for election in his own right and running against Sherrod Brown, the former Democratic senator who lost his seat in 2024 but is now seeking to regain it. And also there's a governor's race, and this is now maybe affecting the Senate race, Vivek Ramaswamy, the entrepreneur who...

21:49Listen at schwab.com slash Washington Wise. Ran for president in the primaries in 2024 for the Republican side is now running for governor, challenging Democrat Amy Acton, the former health commissioner in the state. And the ad controversy this week erupted when the Ramaswamy campaign ran an ad showing the mother of Amy Acton calling her daughter a liar. And this caused a real controversy because Amy Acton says her mother was abused by their father and she and her brother had to be removed from their home. And even John Husted, the Republican Senate candidate, had said, well, I wouldn't run that ad.

22:34Let's listen to J.D. Vance, who appeared for Ramaswamy this week, respond to the criticism about the ad. Whether the ad was appropriate or not is not really my concern. What is my concern is who's going to govern the next generation of American government. Who is going to win the Senate race in the state of Ohio? Who's going to win the governor's race in the state of Ohio? And I got to be honest that when I see Republicans, people in my party, reacting so strongly, especially elected officials, look, have the opinion you want to have on that ad. If you think it was too tough, say it was too tough.

23:09If you think it wasn't tough enough, say that. But I have to admit that I'm a little bit disgusted when I see Republicans across the country who are whining more about that advertisement than they are about what the congressional Democrats and other Democrats want to do to the United States of America. Well, let's break this down a little bit before we get to, I mean, is the ad appropriate first? Both appropriate, Barton, and smart politics first before we get into J.D. Vance's tough guy routine. Well, those are two very separate questions. And I think it's not appropriate just on the merits. On the politics, now, there are two arguments I could see.

23:47One would be that, okay, it's dirty, but you're associating her with a really messed up family situation. And so maybe a lot of voters are going to say, you know, I don't really like Ramaswamy, but this person has some issues she needs to deal with in her personal life. Okay, that's dirty politics. Maybe it'll work, maybe not. On the other hand, you could just get a lot of independent voters saying, gross of Ramaswamy to run this ad. I'm out of here. I'm voting for this lady. I think the latter is probably the case, but, you know, we'll see on Election Day. Kim, I think you have some strong views about this ad not being an effective one for Ramaswamy.

24:22Yeah, phenomenally dumb. I mean, that's how I sum it up. Look, first of all, you've got to remember the background of this. Republicans have already been dealing with this kind of slimy scandal question in Ohio. Anyway, Max Miller, who's the GOP incumbent in the Ohio 7 district is going through this ugly divorce and custody battle with his wife, Emily Moreno, who just happens to be the daughter of Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno. So it's encompassed, you know, the leading families in the state and it's in the headlines every day. Now, you know, you come out with this Vivek ad and I can just tell you most parents, and those are a lot of the people who are going to be voting, and particularly mothers, are going to watch this ad and go, just be totally turned off by the notion of any parent publicly excoriating and calling their child a liar and doing it in the context of a political ad.

25:16It's just, it sits icky. And I just don't see why, of all the arguments that could be made in this race, why you would go there as well, too. It's just that that's the thing that just struck me as it was sort of like an own goal and an unnecessary on goal to a couple of notable points here. One is that Ramaswamy doesn't think it's an own goal because he's reinforcing his ad buy with another four million dollars behind it. OK, so he thinks it's good. He told our colleague Mary Julia Koch, who was out there this week, that he stands by it and it demonstrates that Amy Acton is a liar, and therefore this is information the public needs.

25:55Regarding J.D. Vance, Barton, it's interesting. The vice president appearing for Ramaswamy is obviously not going to repudiate a key part of Ramaswamy's strategy. On the other hand, it's interesting. He turned it not just to say this is a legitimate ad, this is an important point, and driving it back on Acton. He turned it against other Republicans who said, oh, see, my party is a bunch of weak wets who are criticizing this. This is something that Vance has become a specialty for him. He does it often, which is to criticize other Republicans. Well, he prefaced that statement first by saying, if you think the ad is too tough, then say that.

26:34Well, okay, they did say that. But then he goes further and questions their motive for saying that. Well, their motive is not because they want to lose. Their motive in saying that is because they want to win. And they think that the ad is dumb politics. That's why they said it. So, you know, this is very on brand for J.D. Vance, unfortunately. Always attack your own team and also question their motives. And meanwhile, accuse them of not wanting to win, which, you know, what's his strategy? I have to ask, are we suggesting on this podcast that Vivek Ramaswamy has gone too far? I think that's what I heard from Ms.

27:12Straso. How could that be? Well, we all know Vivek pretty well. He's a smart guy. But some of the things he said in the debates in 2024, I think, did not actually help him win the nomination. And it's fascinating to me, Kim, that he's gone this direction. Because when he started this campaign, he was really pretty interesting. He was starting on education reform. Great. Starting on making Ohio a bastion for investment. and entrepreneurship. And Ohio economy has been sluggish for a fair number of years. It hasn't kept up with some of the coastal states in the South where entrepreneurship and new companies have formed.

27:56So he wants to revive Ohio. And I think those were good agenda points. But I think this ad reflects to me in part that he sees this is a really bad year for Republicans and they're in trouble. And Amy Acton is very vulnerable for having shut down the schools in Ohio during the COVID for much longer time than necessary. So Ramaswamy turns to this. It suggests maybe they think they're really, really in trouble in Ohio this year. But this was my point about why it was unnecessary. I would also add to that list of really fascinating policy ideas. Vivek is in the state talking about really important tax reform, which is something that Ohio could really benefit from.

28:38And, you know, he is at his best. He was at his best when he was on the stage a couple of years ago, when he is being bright, being optimistic, talking about the future, talking about policy ideas. That's where Ramaswamy shines. And as you noted, she does have vulnerabilities. And just having that contrast, I think, is his ticket to winning. I recognize he's worried, But these are the kind of like it's a very tech entrepreneur thing to do, just like do like a giant bet, like a week out and kind of, you know, place everything on the board and hope it all turns out well. Whereas I think there might have been more of a steady and sure is what wins the race.

29:20It's going to be interesting to see. I tend to think that this is going to be a bad year in Ohio. I mean, it's gone so well for Republicans for so long in the Trump era, but there's a sour mood in the state this year, Barton. And in fact, if you look at the polling across the country in a lot of these races, both the president's approval rating has fallen, keeps falling, and the so-called competitive Democrat versus Republican polling, which party do you prefer to run Congress, has widened now to, you know, 9, 10, 11, depending on the poll. Yeah, double digits in a lot of them. Yeah, I agree with that.

29:54And, you know, I will say that in Ohio, in that race particularly, it's true that Amy Acton has some vulnerabilities, but those vulnerabilities may not actually be that because they're all tied to her time as health director during COVID. And in my observation, voters are simply unwilling to relitigate COVID mistakes. They're just not going to do it. I mean, I think you see that across the board. No one has paid a price because voters just want to move on from that. And Vivek's criticisms are well taken by me because I agree with him about those COVID era restrictions and so on and the sort of madness we went through.

30:32And I think he's in trouble. And I'll also mention that I watched her a bit on the campaign. She's a pretty savvy campaigner. She does not come across as an extremist. And she has a very sort of winsome tone. And so, you know, she's a good candidate. Well, it would be a fascinating turn in the so-called realignment that we're supposed to be having nationally if Ohio turns Democratic this year. But it's going to be fascinating to watch. Thank you, Barton Swain. Thank you, Kim Strassel. Thank you all for listening. We're here every day between now and the election and beyond on Potomac Watch. Thanks for listening.

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