The Ballot Measures: Taxes, Voter ID and Abortion, Plus Plenty of Odds and Ends

0:29This episode is brought to you by Charles Schwab. In the pages of The Wall Street Journal, this is Potomac Watch. Voters going to the polls on Tuesday will decide nearly 150 state ballot measures, including big items on taxes, voter ID, and abortion, while also having a say on odds and ends like Alaska's kooky rank-choice voting system, Wisconsin Frankenstein veto, and Idaho's official state gun. Welcome, I'm Kyle Peterson with The Wall Street Journal. We're joined today by my colleague on the WSJ's opinion pages, columnist Kim Strassel. Kim, you and I have both poured over these lists of ballot measures coming next week, about 150 of them at the state level alone.

1:09And who knows how many local items are also being put to voters, you know, city proposals. One is whether Washington, D.C. will ban foie gras. Maybe the way to start is with some broad categories, themes. Let's take elections first. to voter ID rules in several states. Some places like Ohio seem like they already have voter ID laws. And now this is a proposal to voters to amend the state constitution to make those laws difficult to change, give them a little bit stronger legal backing. And then other places that don't have voter ID laws may institute them, one being Colorado, Amendment 84 to require mail voters to write some kind of ID number on mail votes.

1:50And then Prop 39 in California. And part of what makes these ballot initiatives, not these, but all of them that we're going to talk about interesting and fun, is that there is not a whole lot of polling on them, unlike the Senate races that the pollsters are following almost day by day. And so you really get kind of a test. What do voters in blue states think about voter ID? Is it as popular as some of the general polling and as Republicans seem to suggest. Yeah, and it's going to be really fascinating to see how not just the voter ID questions and election related questions in terms of balloting come out, but all the other ones as well, too.

2:28I mean, we have a few, for instance, the wealth tax in California. There's been a lot of polling about that. So we have some ideas, but most of these are just complete mystery. Like we're just going to wake up and see what voters felt about this issue. Also, you were mentioning numbers. I feel compelled to give a little sort of shout out and my sympathies for voters in California and Colorado. By the way, I think voters in each of those states have 14 measures that they have to decide on each, 14 in California, 14 in Colorado. My goodness, like you'd need to set aside like a whole week just to study to get ready for your ballot.

3:03But I think what's interesting about these voter ID rules and citizenship rules is that obviously they come in the wake of a yearlong campaign by the president to push Republicans into passing the Save America Act, which would essentially nationalize those questions, requiring national rule on citizenship and voter ID. And as we have pointed out, the reality is there's a lot of states that have already done that. And now we have a number more states that are going to put that question up to their voters, even in this election. So voters in Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Kansas and South Dakota and West Virginia will be asked to approve measures that either amend their state constitutions or state laws to specify that only U.S.

3:49citizens can vote. And then obviously another seven states that have these ballot measures requiring voters to provide some proof of identity. And each of these are different in terms of what they accept or require. Some of them require, you know, that you actually have a voter ID there. Other than have to do with how you prove that you were who you were, if you're sending in mail ballots, for instance, maybe a social security numbers and et cetera. But it'll be very fascinating to see how this comes in. And it should, Will, as you say, say something about some of these polls that broadly point out that voter ID is popular with about 80 percent, 70 to 80 percent of Americans.

4:29The citizenship amendments are interesting because I agree that some of that, I think, is messaging by Republicans, putting that in the state constitution in a very clear way. But it also seems to me some of them at least seem to be aimed at particularly clarifying that non-citizens may not vote in local elections. Already, the voting by non-citizens in federal elections is illegal. But there are a handful of places across the country in the usual avant-garde places like California, Vermont, Washington, D.C., maybe most egregiously, that have opened their local elections to people who live there and who are not citizens on the argument that they are consuming city services.

5:12Maybe they're in city schools. Maybe we're talking about people who are permanent residents, green card holders, sometimes not illegal aliens necessarily. But the Arkansas issue one, for example, seems to amend that state's constitution specifically to make clear that no city in Arkansas should try that. And to my mind, there's nothing wrong with preemptively banning that in states where it is not currently happening. And so why not? But it will take something more maybe to override the rules of California and Vermont in the places where it is happening. Though maybe this is the beginning of a movement and a push, because if you put it on the ballot, say, in Maryland statewide, again, I'm not really sure what the polling on that would be, whether statewide Maryland or Vermont really is comfortable with noncitizens voting for these mayors and school board members.

6:07Well, watch that initiative in California, which you mentioned, which, by the way, isn't isn't about citizenship. Well, it does. Actually, that's not true. So the California initiative asks voters to approve a measure to require government issued ID when voting and also to demand officials verify voter citizenship. So that particular amendment deals with both of these issues. There was some complaints about the wording of that, if it's actually sort of how much pressure or how big of a requirement is that officials do that kind of due diligence. But if you see Californians of all places come out and put this in place, it could be a precursor to seeing more movements on preemptively getting rid of some of this in jurisdictions across different states as well, too.

6:56And this is something we've seen that's been a little bit of a growing fad. We've had a number of states in the last election round in 2024 who preemptively said no ranked choice voting in our state. So, you know, they were trying to get that in place just to take away the temptation that anyone would attempt to make that happen. One other thing I would mention about these citizenship and voter ID measures is don't underestimate the possibility that some of them can also be turnout measures, too. This is something a lot of Americans feel very deeply about, and a lot of Republicans in particular were very frustrated that the Save America Act did not pass in Congress.

7:33And some of these initiatives are on the ballot in states with some really hot Senate elections. You know, you mentioned Ohio, Alaska is another one, Kansas. So to the extent that voters might not be too jazzed to go out and vote for a Republican, they might, however, really want to go and register their view on this question and then also vote for Republicans while they're out. Let's take up Measure 2 in Alaska. This is the second time in recent years that the state's electorate is going to be asked whether it wants to repeal that state's top four primary and then ranked choice general election.

8:09Let's listen to an ad on the repeal side. Ranked choice voting has been banned in 19 U.S. states. Let's end it in Alaska, too, to avoid future mistakes. Like the last time! Vote yes to it. Ranked choice voting in the last frontier. They may just love it in insane New York, but get it out, out, out of here. Kim, that makes me laugh. The screaming totem pole saying like the last time, because I don't know when that ad was actually cut, But maybe the tone of people should be screaming like this time, because, of course, we're taping this only a few days after the Dan Sullivan doppelganger, Daniel J.

8:51Sullivan Jr., challenging the incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, has been outed as someone who was recruited by the campaign of Democrat Mary Peltola. So despite the fact that Alaskans were recently asked about repealing this and said no, do you think another just round of fiasco has convinced more people to maybe move into the yes camp? So put me in the category of people who believe that when you say Alaskans recently said no, that was actually probably a mistake. The ballot initiative in 2024 to get rid of ranked choice voting only failed by about a thousand votes. And one of the problems was is that the supporters of repealing ranked choice voting, which is still it only came into existence in Alaska about four years ago.

9:40This was the first big test they had. And you arguably the best way to have done this would have been to put the whole ballot measure back up and allow people to say no to it. But what they did two years ago is put an initiative on the ballot that where you had to vote yes to say no to ranked choice voting. And we know from some people who were involved in exit polling that there were a number of Alaskans who walked out of the ballot booth and they were asked, how did you vote on this initiative? And they said, we voted no. And they said, well, why? And they said, because we hate ranked choice voting.

10:10Well, they had just voted by accident to keep it in place. So you're seeing a lot of ads like that now and also campaign literature being sent to households saying vote yes to say no. Vote yes, vote yes, vote yes. That's what that entire commercial was about. Donald Trump, when he came up and did his rally, he had the entire crowd there shouting yes on to yes on to, you know, to get rid of rank choice voting. I think there's a much greater chance, especially with the scandal out of this Peltola Sullivan race and just the way that the ballot was gamed so clearly gamed, which Alaskans are hearing a lot more detail about in the last few days.

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11:56Welcome back. Let's turn to a second theme that would be taxes. There's been a lot of talk, coverage of California's wealth tax, how much it is already backfiring, even just by being on the ballot, prompting billionaires to think about fleeing or even to leave the state already. But interesting, California also has a Prop 3, which would extend a temporary millionaire's tax, make it permanent. And then Colorado is considering abolishing its flat tax. Those are just a couple of the tax measures. But, Kim, what do you make of those as changes to the economic environment of those blue states? Well, a couple of things you get out of this is, first of all, never trust any politicians who call any tax temporary because the next thing that comes along is they're going to ask you to make it permanent.

12:40And that's what Prop 3 is in California. The Colorado one is one that really worries me because one of the ballot measures that's up there is dealing with the state's iconic taxpayers' bill of rights. And what that does is it essentially says whenever the state has surplus revenue that comes in, it's required to return it to the citizens. So there's a ballot measure asking them to get rid of that, essentially allow that surplus money to instead be used for state purposes. And also, as you said, an amendment asking Coloradans to get rid of the state's flat tax in favor of this progressive income tax with rates as high as 8.4 percent.

13:21Look, people are already fleeing from California. They're fleeing other blue states. And that's why I think the Colorado one is really one to watch. Voters have in past been asked to both adopt income taxes and mess with this taxpayer bill of rights. They've rejected it consistently, but the state has changed some. It's become more blue. So it's going to be a big test as to whether or not Colorado just fully jumps in and joins the states that are interested in economic suicide or whether or not its voters actually try to make sure that this is still a place where it's competitive to locate a business and a place where people still want to live.

13:58Another theme uniting a handful of states is abortion again on the ballot. Of course, the Supreme Court gave abortion back to the states in the Dobbs decision, overturning Roe v. Wade. And the pro-choice side, the abortion rights side, has had a lot of success in recent years putting questions directly to voters. There's been a good amount of coverage of Virginia's question one. That state already has a pretty permissive regime on abortion. But this question would create a state constitutional right to reproductive freedom. I think the critics of this kind of amendment have some points when they say that language like that in the Constitution would be an invitation to judges to strike down things that are still broadly popular.

14:44You know, if there's an individual right to reproductive freedom, for example, does that apply to a law that requires minors, 16-year-olds or what have you, to notify their parents before they go into Planned Parenthood or what have you to obtain an abortion? Another interesting state here is Missouri, Amendment 3, because this shows, I think, voters frustrated by not being able to get a policy that is more in the middle. Missouri, contrary to Virginia, had a pretty restrictive abortion law. But then voters in 2024, they narrowly passed one of these kind of state constitutional amendments. And now they have Amendment 3, which is proposing to reverse that.

15:24Kim, I mean, I think this is a vindication for the Supreme Court's view that voters are capable of setting policy and making up their own minds on this. Though I do sometimes wonder whether red states, states that are skeptical of abortion rights, might be better off offering voters something in the middle, like 12 weeks or something like that. No, absolutely. I mean, we're seeing this now, this ping pong in states. So as you noted, you know, Missouri had a law. Then that was overturned by this amendment the last time around, which essentially enshrined a constitutional right to all of this. Now they're being asked to go back and vote, and this time it would prohibit abortion and accepting cases of medical emergencies or rape or incest, and also put some pretty strict rules on when those procedures would have to take place, even if it was in the case of rape or incest.

16:16And there's no question voters would like something in the middle. I would note that when Missouri voted for this amendment to the state constitution two years ago, it was passed with just 52 % of the vote. So there was a lot of reticence about giving such a broad mandate, such a huge leeway. But I'm assuming there's also going to be some real reticence to just cracking back down again as well, too. And we're seeing, you know, a similar thing happen in Idaho this particular cycle. Idaho has an abortion ban that it put in place in, you know, the wake of Roe v. Wade. Now we're going to have Idaho's Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act, which is Prop 1, it will be on the ballot where, you know, Idahoans will decide whether or not they want to pass a much like sort of free for all situation again.

17:05And again, these are lawmakers not responding to what is very clear in America, a kind of large gray middle of Americans that want things that are just common sense. Hang tight. We'll be right back after one more break. A t-shirt and jeans, mac and cheese. Some things in life are an obvious match, like RIAs and Schwab Advisor Services, the number one choice for independent advisors. The difference is so obvious, it's Schwabvious. Learn why at schwabvious.com. Don't forget, you can reach the latest episode of Potomac Watch anytime. Just ask your smart speaker. Play the Opinion Potomac Watch podcast.

17:46From the opinion pages of The Wall Street Journal, this is Potomac Watch. Welcome back. Let's open the conversation up a little bit. I mean, out of these 150 amendments, there are many odds and ends. What else catches your eye as particularly interesting, notable, fun? One that I am watching, because I just think it could be a kind of groundbreaking for future initiatives is a ballot initiative in Arizona Proposition 319, which would ban local governments from introducing any new photo enforcement systems starting on January 1. Now, cities that already were using those systems, and there's a handful of larger jurisdictions in Arizona that have these traffic cameras in place, they can keep what they have for now, but they, too, would be required to seek approval from voters in the next general election.

18:38And then, again every 10 years. This is interesting, not just because it raises this fascinating question about traffic cameras. And a lot of people have a lot of issues with those. They particularly, they see them as a violation of privacy. They view it as a way for government to duck accountability because, you know, sometimes you get ticketed by these things and it was an error and there's nobody to appeal to. They're like, oh, sorry, the computer did it. You know, it's not as if you can have a discussion with a police officer about what actually happened. There's kind of mixed evidence on whether or not they actually improve safety.

19:11But I think it's also interesting in the context of the growing national debate over these constant continuous surveillance from these flock license plate readers, wherever Arizona goes on this. And by the way, I should note that the legislature actually passed this, the language on traffic cameras first, but the Arizona governor vetoed it. And so now it's being put to the people. I would wager it will pass, but it could be a precursor to some future initiatives or referendums on plot cameras and continuous surveillance. Let me throw out a couple. One is question eight in Massachusetts. This got a bit of coverage earlier in the year.

19:48It's asking voters whether they want to repeal the state's recreational marijuana. And it was hailed when it got on the ballot as potentially the first step in rolling back the broad legalization of marijuana in American life, maybe a model for other states. I mean, who knows what will happen on election day, but the polling is looking pretty grim for question eight. So maybe advocates of rolling back those marijuana laws want to pick a different state to try in next time. Another is Wisconsin question one. And this is funny. The governor of Wisconsin has a strange kind of partial veto power that allows him basically to rewrite laws in ways.

20:34Recently, there was one by Governor Tony Evers. There was a law passed by the legislature that raised some taxing limits, I think, for school districts through the year 2024-25. And what he did is he went through and he used a partial veto to make that, say, 2425. So a 400-year change to the law. And now the voters are being asked if that's really the kind of power that they want their governor to have. The ballot measure, I believe, would limit the governor's ability to use that to raise taxes or fees. And then, Kim, a fun one that I know you've looked at, this is Idaho asking voters in a non-binding referendum what they think should be their state gun.

21:20And states have all sorts of official designations for candies and reptiles and whatnot. So I don't know why not a state gun. It has also stirred some interest. Here's an endorsement by an independent Idaho Senate candidate. Todd Akeli is here with my first endorsement for the November 3rd election for Idaho state gun, the M1 Garand. Five and a half million were made during World War II and the Korean War. This is the weapon that defeated fascism and saved democracy. Vote for the M1 grant. Kim, what do you make of this? I am not enough of a gun enthusiast to have a real read of the options on the ballot here.

21:57I'm not sure if you have a favorite for the winner. I am a gun enthusiast, and I'm going to refrain, though, from telling Idahoans what they should choose as their state gun. Because believe it or not, Kyle, you were talking about state candy, reptiles. There are actually, here's an even better part to this story. There are already 10 states that have an officially designated state firearm, including Alaska, where I am. Alaska's is a Winchester Model 70, which is a bolt-action rifle. And it was chosen in part because it was sort of a go-to legendary weapon in big game hunts in Alaska. And I think that that's kind of part of the idea is that, you know, what do you think, what gun do you think most sort of reflects your state history?

22:40So they've got six choices. And among them, the Winchester Model 1873, which is also known as the gun that won the West, and the 1873 Colt single action army revolver, which is known as the Peacemaker. Obviously, both of those guns have a really long and storied history in the settlement of the West. And then, you know, you just saw that passionate appeal for a rifle that was instrumental in World War II. So this is a big moment for Idaho. By the way, I wish all the ballot initiatives were that fun. But it also answer a big question I've had is, why are so many people moving to Idaho? Well, this may be one of the reasons everyone's moving to Idaho.

23:19Thank you, Kim. Thank you all for listening. You can email us your own ballot measure favorites at pwpodcast at wsj.com. If you like the show, please hit that subscribe button. And we'll be back next week with another edition of Potomac Watch. Your financial life rarely fits between 9 and 5, and the questions shaping your future don't follow a schedule. That's why Citi created Citi Sky, a secure AI member of your Citi Wealth team, built with the Gemini platform on Google Cloud. Whether expanding your portfolio or planning your future, you'll be able to access tailored wealth guidance on your time.

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