The Houthis Seize a Red Sea Chokepoint / Rep. Salazar's Immigration Warning to Trump

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0:17From the opinion pages of The Wall Street Journal, this is Potomac Watch. Iranian proxies in the Middle East send oil prices up again as the Houthis advance on a choke point in the Red Sea and an Iraqi militia strikes a pipeline in Saudi Arabia. Plus, a Republican congresswoman in Florida runs an ad telling President Trump that the Hispanic voters who put him in the White House now feel betrayed. Welcome, I'm Kyle Peterson with The Wall Street Journal. We're joined today by my colleagues on the WSJ's opinion pages, editorial board member Elliot Kaufman and columnist Kim Strassel. Oil prices spiked this week to$108 a barrel for Brent crude before easing a bit amid more turmoil in the region.

1:06Saudi Arabia closed its east-west pipeline last Friday after a drone attack on it emanating from Iraqi territory. That pipeline has been one way that oil has kept flowing to global markets during the Iranian efforts to throttle the Strait of Hormuz. Meantime, the Houthi rebels in Yemen have been on the march, taking territory near a strategic choke point on the Red Sea, raising fears that they could hold that waterway hostage now. Elliot, what do you make of the latest in the Middle East and the difficulties and perhaps opportunities it poses for the West? Well, I would put it this way. Iran needed an answer.

1:43Iran's initial plan was to strangle the flow of oil, of gas, through the Strait of Hormuz. But the U.S., after an awfully long time, seemed to have come up with an answer of its own. That is, the U.S. has been escorting increasing quantities of oil, of fuel, of all kinds. What was Iran going to do? We were all waiting for the big escalation. Well, we've seen it. But it has now come through Iran's proxies. That is, the Houthis in Yemen have blitzed Yemen's Red Sea coast, taken crucial territory, including one very crucial island, allowing them to look over the Bab al-Mandab Strait and take pot shots.

2:36No longer do they need to use fancy missiles, rely on drones, in order to slow the flow of oil in the Red Sea. Instead, they can sit right there, look at what they are shooting at, and in that way, make it easy. And pot shots is maybe a good word because the Houthis have a long record now of shooting and sometimes hitting, you know, ships transiting these international waterways. What do you suppose the regional response to this ought to be if the idea of Iranians trying to close the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthis trying to close access to the Red Sea is not tolerable for the Middle East or for the United States.

3:21I think we knew it before, but we definitely know it now. The Houthis are a problem that cannot be left alone. So the U.S. tried some bombing. Israel briefly did a few strikes. But if they're going to sit there in Yemen, they aren't going to stop asserting control of these critical waterways to advance their own interests and Iran's regime interests. That is what I see happening right here. Iran can no longer stop us, let's say, like it would like to in the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, it's stopping us in the Red Sea with the same goal of putting that pressure on energy prices. The rest of the region now has to look at this and figure out a way to combat it.

4:13In the past, the Saudis had led a large-scale air campaign with a ground component from the Yemeni government as well. President Biden put an end to that. Put an end to that Saudi war on the Houthis on essentially humanitarian grounds. It was awful for the civilians. There's no question of that. But a Houthi takeover is also awful. And that's what, unfortunately, we're seeing now. Some reporting that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would like more U.S. airstrikes. Do you think that that is in the cards under the Trump administration? Or if the answer is no, what kind of aid could the U.S.

4:56provide to what kind of coalition that could reopen the Red Sea? I'm sure MBS would like that, but I don't see it coming. Look at it this way. Not too long ago in this war, the Saudis were denying the US, President Trump, access to their airspace when the US was launching what was called Project Freedom in order to try to get ships out of the strait. So if that's how the Saudis reacted to our war effort, can they now turn around and ask President Trump essentially for a bailout? It's a tough ask, I would say. Instead, what the U.S. can do, and I would say needs to do, is help its regional allies work together to solve this problem.

5:47Already, we've seen U.S. Central Command convene discussions, planning among Saudi Arabia, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and other Arab powers. Now, the Saudis had previously kicked the UAE out of Yemen, saying, we don't need your help. We don't need you acting at cross purposes. And we know the Saudis have resisted joining the Abraham Accords with Israel thus far. And yet they need help. They need regional allies here. Israel has very useful intelligence. The UAE has impressive capabilities in the air, in allied ground for us as well. By stepping back in this instance, the US can allow its allies to finally work together and combine capabilities, which is what's ultimately needed unless we want to see the U.S.

6:49intervening again and again. Hang tight. We'll be right back in a moment. Congress has talked about permitting reform for decades. Now it's time to actually do it and secure our affordable energy future. Pass permitting reform now. Paid for by the American Petroleum Institute.

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7:57Welcome back. Those allies relying on a pretty good amount of U.S. military hardware and more on the way all the time. This is the announcement on Thursday. The U.S. Department of State has made a determination approving a possible foreign military sale to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for their purchase of F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter and related equipment. The total estimated cost of that is about$24 billion. Elliot, it's not as if the United States is not putting anything into the Middle East in this region in a way that is supportive of those allies. That's right. But when I see a sale like that, I just shake my head because we're not in this situation now for a lack of very expensive military hardware in Saudi Arabia.

8:49The Saudis spend$70 billion a year on defense. That's more than Iran spends. That's more than Israel spends on defense. They spend huge on all the fanciest hardware. The question is, do they have the will to fight? And then after that, do they have experience and so forth? Everything else follows. But first you need that will to fight. And when the United States is always there to be called on to fight for them, there's no reason for them to have it. And so I hope this can be a learning experience for the Saudis, that it's not just turn immediately to the US, bail us out with airstrikes. You already have a very large air force.

9:38You have allies waiting there for you if you want them to work on this problem. I think that's what has to happen. I would also note there are some concerns about selling those F-35s. Many in Congress worry about Chinese technology theft, potentially because of the close Chinese-Saudi relationship. But is there any doubt that behind all of this action is the regime in Tehran, the Iranian regime? I mean, often the description of the Houthis is the Iranian-linked Houthis. The same for the allegations about these drones coming in and hitting Saudi Arabia from a militant group in Iraqi territory backed by Iran.

10:22I mean, it seems like all of this still, as often as the case, comes back to Tehran and the Iran war that President Trump, to his credit, I think, is not cutting some kind of deal. He's trying to keep the pressure on. Everyone assumes that this is Iran. And that's not only Israel, not only the Saudis, but also China, for instance. So when China wants the oil to start moving, it goes to Iran and says, can you rein in the Houthis on this question? Certainly, it would be quite the coincidence if after holding back this whole time, the Houthis, right when Iran needs them most, needs to open some other front, the Houthis just happen to do it by their own accord.

11:08I don't really buy that. I think this is Iran operating. I think this is Iran escalating, and we're going to have to look at it as such. Eli, with respect to Iran, it has dropped off some of the immediate headlines, but what is the latest on the ground there and the Trump administration's approach? The most important facts right now in Iran is that the U.S. blockade is still airtight, and Iran's blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is weaker and weaker all the time. And so in that sense, reason for optimism. What Iran is doing now with the Houthis is a way of restoring that same oil price pressure on the US, on President Trump, with the midterms, on the world.

11:57But Iran losing that Strait of Hormuz is critical because that was supposed to be Iran's major victory in this war, was it not? that the US started it and now it has lost Hormuz. If that is no longer the case, then as you look at this war, if you are Iran's regime, what do you see right now? You are still being devastated economically. You have taken hundreds of billions of dollars of economic damage. Your industrial base smashed, defense industrial base smashed. You've lost leaders and commanders and many missiles. You've had to fire on all of your neighbors. And for what? To be able to have the Houthis cause problems out in the Red Sea, which we already knew they could do?

12:46I don't think that cuts it. And so if the US can sustain, really, if President Trump can sustain this strategy politically, I think he now has landed upon a viable strategy in order to pressure Iran into a defeat. Hang tight. We'll be right back after one more break. Congress has talked about permitting reform for decades. Now it's time to actually do it and secure our affordable energy future. Pass permitting reform now. Paid for by the American Petroleum Institute.

13:25Don't forget, you can reach the latest episode of Potomac Watch anytime. Just ask your smart speaker. Play the Opinion Potomac Watch podcast. From the Opinion pages of The Wall Street Journal, this is Potomac Watch. Welcome back. Joining us now is Kim Strassel. Kim, let's talk about this remarkable ad now running in Florida from Republican Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar. Let's just play the clip. As a president, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far. In July, 50 percent of the 50 ,000 people that were detained had no criminal record. Be careful what your advisors are telling you about immigration policies.

14:08The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today. You can be for immigration when Lincoln was for slavery and Reagan was for communism. I'm not talking about giving them amnesty. I'm talking about giving them a dignified life in this promised land. And only you can do that. Kim, what do you make of that? Politicians running for office that want to distance themselves from a president or an unpopular party leader in Congress often just don't invite them. They ask them to stay away. But it's another thing entirely to be running ads directed at the president of your own party.

14:42Yeah. And it's particularly interesting to Kyle because so she's held a Miami seat since 2021. And in her last election in 2024, she won by 21 points. Her seat isn't currently rated a toss up, but it does suggest that what she is seeing on the ground in the communities that she exists in is a big shift among Hispanic voters in particular. and just other voters as well about the entire immigration discussion in the U.S. And the thing that is remarkable about this is I'm not even quite sure how the administration managed to get itself in this scenario. This is a classic case of taking a winning issue and turning it into a liability.

15:29I mean, think back two or three years ago. Americans were furious about open borders and the Biden's chaotic immigration policies. an 80-20 issue, at least the border part of it, a big part of the 2024 election and why Donald Trump's in office. And essentially, all this administration had to do was get the border under control, which they managed to do within months. And all credit to them and blew up all these Biden claims that there was nothing to be done about the border absent congressional legislation. So a lot of Americans were happy about that. And then where it went off the rails, though, is we started getting deportations of those with no criminal records, stories of wrongful deportations.

16:11White House official Stephen Miller coming out, suggesting that there was actually a quota for ICE arrests, even though other officials were saying that they were only going after the worst criminals, etc. Democrats have also played a role in this and really hyping up this issue, too, and turning it into a midterm question. I don't want to let them off the hook, But she's essentially saying, look, you need to be paying attention to how Hispanic voters and others are looking at this issue. You're not necessarily getting the best guidance from those around you. On the point about how big this trend might be, it is notable.

16:47President Trump, when he ran in 2024 for reelection, he won a historic showing among Hispanic voters. According to the exit polls, he carried 46 percent of Hispanic or Latinos nationally. That is way above what he got in his initial run for office in 2016. That was only 28 percent. And in Florida specifically, Trump won 58 percent of Hispanics last time, a quarter of the electorate. And so if there is a shifting of the ground among those voters, what do you suppose that the implications of that could be, particularly given that in some of these states, Florida, Texas, Republicans this year, have passed gerrymanders.

17:32And the idea of those gerrymanders is to pick up more seats in the House. But the way to do that is by thinning out Republican margins, by taking the voters that the gerrymanders think are going to vote for the GOP and parceling them out a little bit more here and there in more districts. The way to get a real wipe out of that kind of thing is the kind of shift that Salazar is hinting at. So to be clear, the president is in the White House right now, in large part because of how well he did with minority voters, but in particular, how well he did with Hispanic voters. And that shift is very real.

18:08I was just reading there was a poll from just a couple of weeks ago, a Hart Research Televisa Univision poll that showed that Democrats hold a 58 percent advantage on the generic congressional ballot among 17 competitive House districts in Texas. And Texas was obviously another place where Donald Trump did extremely well among Hispanic voters. And that made an enormous difference to Republicans actually holding the House in some of these districts. That poll in particular looked at three seats in particular in Texas and found that Hispanic voters in those districts in 2024, they were completely split 44 to 44.

18:49Right now, they're polling 56 to 36 in favor of Democrats. So that gives you an actual real idea of the shift on the ground. Now, I don't want to suggest that all of this is due to immigration policy. Those Hispanic voters are obviously being motivated by many of the same factors that other voters are being motivated for. They're probably pretty disenchanted about the cost of living at the moment, the fact that wages aren't rising. There's concerns about the Iran war. I think there's some frustration that the GOP Congress has not laid out what they intend to do next. There's a lot going on here.

19:25But to the extent that some of them, many of them, might also be responding to have a little bit of a backlash to some of the immigration policy, that is something the White House needs to care about. One reason that this ad from Salazar is so striking to my mind is that Donald Trump has a long history of going scorched earth on Republicans who criticize him, even if they mean it in a constructive fashion. And in the past, Trump has endorsed Salazar. Here is what he said in February. Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar is doing a truly fantastic job representing the wonderful people of Florida's 27th congressional district.

20:04complete and total endorsement will never let you down. And so she had to know that by taking this stance, she was risking maybe a rescindment of that endorsement, maybe a truth social bomb criticizing her. I haven't seen that so far as we're taping that. I mean, maybe one way the White House could take it is as constructive criticism and as a warning. But Kim, notably, we're taping this on Friday, just hours after an immigration and customs enforcement agent pleaded not guilty in federal court in Minneapolis to lying to investigators at the FBI about the circumstances of a shooting that took place during that Operation Metro Surge in Minneapolis.

20:51And to my mind, the Trump administration, the president still really have not reckoned with the consequences of that push into Minneapolis and how unpopular it is among a broad range of people, even some of whom thought Joe Biden did a bad job on the border and with immigration, wanted more strict enforcement, but didn't like the kind of real chaos in the streets. The idea suggested in some of these court filings that despite the rhetoric from the Trump administration about going after the worst of the worst, that the surge in Minneapolis, included ICE agents driving around and running people's license plates, trying to figure out, well, should we pull over that guy?

21:31Should we pull over that guy? Which is not the kind of targeted enforcement that Tom Homan, who has now taken over as Borders are, seems to think is the way ICE ought to be doing its job and has historically done its job. But Kim, if the Trump administration wants to take this as a warning, we're sitting here in September. It's a little late to be turning the ship for the November elections. But what about this idea? President Trump over the years has often spoken supportively of the group that is referred to as dreamers, people who are brought to this country over the border as children through no fault of their own and have been going to American schools.

22:09This is really the only country they know. And yet there has not really been a significant push under President Trump for congressional action to let those people stay. And that would be a big shakeup of the November campaign. I'm not predicting it, but President Trump is talking about if Republicans hold Congress, I'm going to write$5 ,000 checks to every adult in the United States. It seems like that's not going to happen. But how about in my last two years as president, I am going to solve this issue and we're going to do something for the dreamers. Finally, I'll work with either party. I mean, Kim, maybe that's one outcome of this Salazar ad that could make a difference.

22:48Well, it does get us back to that Salazar ad. And one thing I would note to go back and look at it, she does not criticize Donald Trump for this. She actually ends the ad by saying you should be really careful about what your advisors are telling you. So she's throwing other people under the bus. And that might be to ward off some of that social media attack that could otherwise be coming. I think also a lot of Republicans have learned that this is a better way to get a message across to Donald Trump. I also happen to think in this particular case that it's also accurate in that much of this does seem to be driven in some ways by some of the people who are around Donald Trump.

23:26He's very clear, has always been clear about his desire to have the border closed. But as you note, he's also been very optimistic and sort of encouraging at times about the importance of the dreamers, Also, people who come in and work in our farming communities. Remember, at one point he intervened. There was going to be a raid in certain areas. And he came out and said, well, I've heard from all of our farmers. And this community of people is so important as a working group in the country. We have to respect that. So he thinks about these things. I could not agree with you more that I don't even know if it's meant for the midterms or a campaign promise.

24:07But the reason immigration reform has not happened in recent years is because there hasn't really been an administration that has the credibility to get it done. The complaint certainly among Republicans was that Democratic presidents didn't take seriously enough the question of border security. And their argument was, we're not going to go and agree to a new situation in which we set up a process to legalize all these folks unless we can have some guarantees that millions more aren't just flooding through and we're not going to be doing this on a permanent basis. Well, that's sorted now. The border is closed.

24:43and there are a lot of issues with immigration that need to be sorted out. Also, if you look at our labor market at the moment, we are having huge problems hiring. So there's also an economic rationale for taking a hard look. And the president has talked before about some of the bigger issues in immigration, getting rid of chain migration, for instance, looking more closely at setting up more visas so that the best people are coming here. There's opportunity here. And yeah, what a triumph it would be if your last two years of office, this was what you ended up with. It you solved this long time.

25:18It's been going on for decades now, fights over what proper immigration policies should be. And also, I think it would really put Democrats on the back foot if the president came out and said, hey, you know, I want to be the one to get this done. What would they do exactly? So an interesting idea. And I think that's what the Salazar ad was trying to say, too. She said, not give amnesty, but let's figure out a way to make sure the folks here, you know, can live here in dignity because they came to one of the greatest places on Earth. Thank you, Kim and Elliot. Thank you all for listening. You can email us at PWPodcast at WSJ.com.

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