Oil Jumps to $100 a Barrel, Stocks Sink as Hormuz Crisis Deepens

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0:31Patrick Thomas:Iran's new supreme leader issues his first official message, but continues to stay out of public view. Plus, the war in the Middle East isn't just disrupting the oil market. It's also driving up prices for things like flights and fertilizer. And hackers hit an American medical devices company called Stryker, saying that they were retaliating on behalf of Iran.

0:51James Rundle:The attack on Stryker stands out because it's one of the first visible examples of a successful disruption outside of the immediate region. And that suggests that the conflict's cyber dimension may be starting to spread more globally.

1:02Patrick Thomas:It's Thursday, March 12th. I'm Alex Osala for The Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today.

1:16Patrick Thomas:Mosheba Khomeini made his first public remarks since succeeding his father to become Iran's supreme leader. In a written statement that appeared in Iranian state media today, Hominay said Iran would open new fronts in the war, promise to attack U.S. bases in the Middle East, and to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. Hominay hasn't been seen in public since the start of the war, which has fueled speculation about his physical well-being. In the Gulf, the U.S. said it has ramped up its attacks on Iranian mine-laying boats as well as mine facilities. It's trying to preempt efforts by Iran to put mines in the Strait of Hormuz, which could disrupt the global economy.

1:53Patrick Thomas:Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. Navy will begin military escorts in the Strait of Hormuz later. Here he is speaking on CNBC this morning.

2:01James Rundle:It'll happen relatively soon, but it can't happen now. We're simply not ready. All of our military assets right now are focused on destroying Iran's offensive capabilities.

2:13Patrick Thomas:Elsewhere in the Middle East, Hezbollah has fired shells towards Syrian military positions, sparking concern of a new war front. Israel struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon after the militia launched hundreds of rockets at the country overnight. And Kuwait said drones targeted its airport. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark oil price, settled above$100 a barrel today. Though oil futures surged above$100 in overnight trading on Sunday, today was the first time they closed above that mark in regular trading since August 2022. Hopes of quickly restoring the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz are dimming.

2:49Patrick Thomas:More tankers were attacked in the waters around Iran, and President Trump said stopping the Iranian regime from getting nuclear weapons was a higher priority than oil prices. Brent futures have soared 65 percent this year. And stocks fell on worries of a long conflict that will mean a lasting disruption to oil markets. The Dow fell more than 700 points, or 1.6 percent. The S &P fell 1.5 percent, and the Nasdaq closed down 1.8 percent.

3:19Patrick Thomas:We talked on this morning's show about the economic winners and losers of the conflict in the Middle East. And this evening, we're honing in on one industry in particular, agriculture. Prices for fertilizer are surging, sending shares of the companies that make it soaring. And the farmers that need that fertilizer, they have some tough choices ahead for the spring planting season. Joining us now is Patrick Thomas, who covers agriculture for The Journal. Patrick, why is the Middle East important for the fertilizer industry?

3:46James Rundle:So the Middle East is actually a massive producer of what's called nitrogen fertilizer. The plants are idled right now, so you're not having the fertilizer produced in plants in the Middle East. And then raw materials that would go into producing it maybe in Europe and elsewhere right now are not getting out as well. The raw materials all come through the Strait of Hormuz, and that is being blocked. That cannot get out, and that is causing big supply problems.

4:11Patrick Thomas:How has this been going over on Wall Street?

4:13James Rundle:Yeah, investors are really betting that American companies like Mosaic, which is based in Florida, CF Industries in Illinois, Nutrien, which is out of Canada, will be able to expand their profit margins, expand market share in a time of high prices. So you're seeing investors really send these shares of the companies surging in the last couple of days.

4:32Patrick Thomas:High prices for fertilizer makes me, of course, wonder how the farmers themselves are doing because this is the crucial spring planting season. Farmers have been in a tough spot for the past few years. There have been lower prices because there were these bumper crops. And then there was, of course, the impact of President Trump's tariffs. Now, as these fertilizer costs are also rising, what are these farmers doing about this?

4:56James Rundle:So this is a massive deal and might have an impact for quite some time. This could stretch into 2027. Prices are going through the roof. and there's concerns about if they'll even be able to get it if they bought it from the Middle East. Stuff's not coming out right now. So what they're doing is they're going to switch to soybeans, which require a lot less fertilizer than corn. So I was texting a farmer in North Dakota who has a lot of farmland, but he's got 150 acres that he's switching to soybeans. So not a big amount, but you're going to see that stretched across American agriculture. So probably less corn, which could have big implications for supply.

5:36James Rundle:And we were just coming out of a supply glut. Well, maybe this time next year, we're going to have pretty high corn prices. So we'll see how it turns out. But farmers, they're going to be stressed with higher costs. It's kind of hard right now to see how this will pencil out for the farmers' balance sheets.

5:52Patrick Thomas:That was Wall Street Journal reporter Patrick Thomas. Thanks, Patrick.

5:56James Rundle:Thanks so much for having me.

5:57Patrick Thomas:Another industry where we're seeing prices rise, airlines. Average ticket prices were rising even before the conflict, and since it started, airfare increases have only accelerated. The rapid run-up in oil prices has created urgency for airlines to charge more. A new report from Deutsche Bank says the biggest price increases are on transatlantic and Caribbean routes, as well as some last-minute flights. The report said that of nine U.S. carriers, Spirit Airlines had the biggest increase in fares for domestic flights that were three weeks away. A Spirit spokesman says the airline is seeing strong bookings for spring break.

6:32Patrick Thomas:Coming up, what's happening on the cyber front of the Middle East conflict? That's after the break.

6:42James Rundle:Hi, I'm Christopher Mims. And I'm Tim Higgins. We're the hosts of the Wall Street Journal's Bold Names podcast. On our show, we bring the bold name companies featured in the pages of the Wall Street Journal to life. through real conversations with the people that lead them. If you're looking for more news and insights that bring you inside the C-suite, consider becoming a subscriber to The Wall Street Journal. Visit subscribe.wsj.com slash bold names to subscribe now.

7:27Patrick Thomas:Yesterday, thousands of employees at medical technology company Stryker woke up to find that their cell phones and laptops didn't work. It was because of a major cyber attack, and the hackers said that they were retaliating on behalf of Iran. James Rundle covers cybersecurity for WSJ Pro and is here to tell us more. James, we've talked a lot on the show recently about these attacks from drones and missiles and all of these physical elements of this conflict in the Middle East. Have we seen a lot of cyber attacks since it started? And what role have they played in the conflict so far?

7:57James Rundle:We have. Cyber has effectively become a parallel front in the conflict. Things like website defacements, denial of service attacks, data leaks, and attempts to disrupt companies or public services. And Strike is a good example of that. The company said they saw no evidence of ransomware, which would normally suggest a criminal activity. In this case, it was fairly destructive. phones were wiped, there were forced resets going through. So hitting something like Stryker or any other big US company just gives them bragging rights effectively at the end of the day. And it allows them to, as we saw with how quickly the story spread, shock the public.

8:33James Rundle:The attack on Stryker also stands out because it's one of the first visible examples of a successful disruption outside of the immediate region. And that suggests that the conflict cyber dimension may be starting to spread more globally.

8:45Patrick Thomas:So who exactly is doing the attacking and who is on the receiving end of these attacks?

8:49James Rundle:So there are already three layers of actors involved. There's the state-linked operators, particularly groups who are associated with Iran's intelligence services or the Revolutionary Guard. Second, there are proxy or aligned hacktivist groups. So those are groups that publicly frame their attacks as political activism, but may be operating with some level of state backing. It ties into Iran's general strategy of force projection. It has a lot of proxy groups in the Middle East. So it has Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas. The similar approach is taken in cyber as well. And then third, there are independent activists trying to participate in the conflict digitally or ideologically.

9:29James Rundle:The targets have been largely regional so far, so Israeli government agencies, companies, infrastructure providers, but we're now starting to see, as with Stryker, some activities spill outwards, including attacks on Western companies who are either targets of opportunity or might be perceived as being connected to the conflict. It hasn't been entirely one-sided as well. U.S. and Israeli cyber operations are believed to have degraded Iran's cyber capability before it started. And some policymakers say that explains why the retaliation hasn't been as severe as some experts feared.

10:01Patrick Thomas:That was WSJ Pro reporter James Rundle. James also hosts the Risk Journal podcast, a show on risk and emerging global threats. Check it out wherever you get your podcasts.

10:18The U.S.

10:19Patrick Thomas:trade deficit fell 25 percent in January to$54.5 billion, continuing a volatile run for America's trade balance. Exports grew by 5.5 percent, with sales of gold to overseas buyers driving the gain. As for imports, those slipped 0.7 percent, mostly because the U.S. bought fewer pharmaceuticals from abroad. And speaking of international trade, retailers are facing a new repercussion from Trump's tariffs. A Costco shopper is suing, saying Costco owes its customers tariff refunds. The suit says Costco raised prices because of the tariffs. And now that the Supreme Court has struck down some tariffs, that Costco should refund shoppers.

10:58Patrick Thomas:The lawsuit is seeking class action status. A Costco spokesman declined to comment, but the company has said that if Costco itself gets tariff refunds, it will try to return value to its members through lower prices and better values. And Honda expects a hit of up to$15.7 billion as it retrenches on electric vehicles. Honda's decided to cancel the launches and development of certain models. As a result of these changes, Honda expects to swing to its first annual loss since the company started reporting its consolidated results in 1977. Honda's not alone here. Other car makers are also pulling back on EVs.

11:34Patrick Thomas:Many Americans are still reluctant to buy them. And that's what's news for this Thursday afternoon. Today's show was produced by Pierre Bien-Aimé with supervising producer Tali Arbel. I'm Alex Osula for The Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening.

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