Oil Slides in Wild Trading After Trump Suggests Iran War Could End Soon

0:00Ben Fritz:Legal teams face more data and more scrutiny than ever. They need AI built for both. Relativity is the AI platform for legal work, delivering defensible AI that handles the tedious tasks so judgment stays where it belongs, with you. Learn more at relativity.com forward slash WSJ.

0:22Alex Ossola:Oil prices reverse, falling more than 20 % from their overnight peak and ending below$100 a barrel.

0:28David Uberti:This is some of the wildest commodity trading on record, and it just speaks to the uncertainty in the market of how long the conflict in Iran and the broader Middle East is going to go.

0:38Alex Ossola:Plus, Anthropik sues the Trump administration for trying to end its contracts with the federal government. And could Pixar's latest movie be the big new franchise Disney wants? It's Monday, March 9th. I'm Alex Ozola for The Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today.

1:05Alex Ossola:It's been a wild day for oil prices, which sank 20 percent from their peak last night and then fell 5 percent more in after-hours trading. One big reason, the group of seven advanced economies is prepared to release strategic oil reserves if they're needed to stabilize the market. And then CBS News reported that President Trump said he believes that, quote, the war is very complete, pretty much. At the pump, though, many Americans are already feeling the squeeze. Gas prices have climbed 17 percent to an average$3.48 a gallon since the war started. Some experts are predicting that it could hit$4 a gallon by the weekend.

1:40Alex Ossola:And, of course, people are posting about gas prices on social media.

1:44Ben Fritz:So regular has gone up about 70 cents. in a week or so, which is kind of crazy. Prices over here, $4.79 on the regular. $4.79 on the regular, extra$5.59.

2:04Alex Ossola:Guys, if you have not gotten gas, you may want to, because they're even saying tomorrow that the gas prices are going to go up. To discuss what this means for markets, I'm joined by WSJ reporter David Huberti. David, in late trading, the U.S. oil benchmark was dropping below$90, down from a high of$119 a barrel. What does that tell us about traders' state of mind?

2:25David Uberti:In short, that nobody knows what's happening or what the outlook is going forward. This is some of the wildest commodity trading on record, and it just speaks to the uncertainty in the market of how long the conflict in Iran and the broader Middle East is going to go, and the extent to which that's going to actually snarl physical supplies of oil that manufacturers, farmers, and different types of companies around the world really rely on.

2:49Alex Ossola:And who is benefiting from this huge run-up in oil prices?

2:52David Uberti:The winners in the market are the companies that produce oil that are not in the line of fire. So if you're an oil producer in West Texas or New Mexico, you are about to get a windfall profit from some of these price increases that we are seeing. And obviously, the longer it goes on, the more that will boost their bottom lines. The losers are everyone else who consumes oil. Construction crews, manufacturers, big farming companies, oil, and all of the byproducts that are created when we produce it go into basically every facet of the modern economy. In addition, natural gas is a very key input for a lot of manufacturers around the world.

3:31David Uberti:They are going to experience price increases, if not already.

3:34Alex Ossola:What is the worst-case scenario that analysts are envisioning? I mean, Iran is threatening$200 a barrel for oil. Is that possible or even likely?

3:43David Uberti:It's certainly possible. The extent to which it's likely is really an open question right now. Major analysts that we follow suggest that if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted for weeks longer, it could push prices up to$150 a barrel. And that will have a really big impact on U.S. economic growth and U.S. inflation expectations. That's bad for markets broadly. Yeah.

4:08Alex Ossola:What are some of the political ramifications of that? If people are already starting to feel this at the pump, and then it just potentially gets even more exacerbated as this conflict continues.

4:17David Uberti:Gasoline prices are the prices that Americans see most commonly in their day-to-day lives. You drive past them on your way to work. You fuel up your tank of gas. President Trump staked his reelection in large part on bringing down prices, including energy prices, in a very big way. And now we're seeing gasoline and diesel in particular, along with all the other byproducts of petroleum. they're actually trading higher than they were when trump took office but if you look at the global economy broadly the u.s might be a net winner europe and asia rely on imports from the middle east for a lot of their energy and you're seeing global markets tied to some of those economies fall in a much much bigger way than they are in the u.s the impacts are really hard to suss out because you have on one hand those windfall profits to producers which obviously feed into investors' returns.

5:06David Uberti:On the other hand, you have the hit-to-consumers bottom lines.

5:10Alex Ossola:That was WSJ reporter David Huberti. Thanks, David.

5:13David Uberti:Thanks.

5:14Alex Ossola:The president's reported comments to CBS also helped lift stocks. The Nasdaq-led indexes with a 1.4 percent gain. The Dow rose half a percent, or 239 points, after being down almost 900 points in early trading. And in other updates on the war, we're reporting that the president has told aides he would back the killing of the new Iranian Supreme Leader, Moshtaba Khamenei, if he's unwilling to accept U.S. demands. That's according to current and former U.S. officials. Khamenei is the son of the former Supreme Leader who was killed by an Israeli airstrike during the conflict. He's seen as a hardline successor to his father.

5:49Alex Ossola:President Trump also said in an interview with the New York Post today that he is, quote, nowhere near deploying U.S. troops to Iran to secure nuclear material. Eight U.S. military personnel have been seriously wounded, in addition to the seven that have been killed in the conflict. More than 36 ,000 Americans have returned from the Middle East since the conflict began. The air war continues, with NATO air defenses intercepting an Iranian ballistic missile that entered Turkish airspace. Separately, two men were charged in federal court today for attempting to carry out a terrorist attack at a protest in New York City over the weekend.

6:23Alex Ossola:They were arrested on Saturday for throwing two improvised explosive devices. One of the men, Amir Balat, told investigators that they had hoped to carry out an attack that was bigger than the Boston Marathon bombing in 2013. The criminal complaint says both men professed their allegiance to the Islamic State militant group after their arrest. New York City Mayor Zoran Mamdani said the men had traveled from Pennsylvania and were protesting an anti-Islamic demonstration near the mayor's residence. A lawyer for Balat said that his client was 18 years old and had, quote, complicated stuff going on.

6:56Alex Ossola:He said that Balat and the other defendant, Ibrahim Kayoumi, didn't know each other. Coming up, Anthropic sues the Defense Department, Live Nation settles with the Justice Department, and Disney's Pixar brings in a big opening weekend. That's after the break.

7:15Ben Fritz:legal teams face more data and more scrutiny than ever they need ai built for both relativity is the ai platform for legal work delivering defensible ai that handles the tedious tasks so judgment stays where it belongs with you learn more at relativity.com forward slash wsj

7:39Alex Ossola:Anthropic has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration for designating the company a security threat and trying to cancel its federal contracts. The maker of Claude says the government went beyond its authority and retaliated against it because Anthropic didn't agree on how AI should be used by the Defense Department. The company asked the court to declare the moves unlawful. A White House spokeswoman said the president wouldn't allow a, quote, radical left woke company to hurt national security by telling the military how to operate. In other legal news, the Justice Department and Live Nation have reached an antitrust settlement.

8:14Alex Ossola:The agreement comes after a week of trial and means Live Nation isn't at risk of having its business broken up. The deal makes it easier for other promoters to compete for business at venues that Live Nation controls. Though several states have agreed to the framework, more than 20 state attorneys general objected to it and want a new trial. And Novo Nordisk says Hims and Her's Health will sell its weight loss drugs through the telehealth company's platform. The deal brings an end to the legal dispute between the companies. Wigowi and Ozempic will go on sale later this month at Novo Nordisk's self-pay prices of$149 to$499 a month.

8:50Alex Ossola:Hims and Her's shares jumped 41%. percent.

8:57Alex Ossola:Pixar's Hoppers debuted at the box office this weekend. The movie is a comedy about a girl who hops her consciousness into a beaver and talks to animals.

9:05David Uberti:We created a revolutionary technology that gives us unprecedented access to the animal world.

9:11Alex Ossola:We call it Hoppers. While existing franchises like the Zootopia and Moana sequels have been raking it in, the Hoppers opening was different. It was the biggest debut for an original animated movie since 2017 and earned an estimated$88 million worldwide. Even so, it's a far cry from the success of the early aughts films like Finding Nemo and Cars. Ben Fritz covers the entertainment industry for the journal and recently Sawhoppers. Ben, how is the movie and what have critics been saying about it?

9:41Ben Fritz:It's gotten amazing reviews, which is great for Pixar, and it's a bit of a change of course for them. It's more outright funny and zany than most Pixar movies people are used to. This movie's got a big, in Hollywood, they would call it high concept, like a big hook. In this case, as you said, the girl hopping her unconscious is sent to beavers. Pixar's last few movies have been more kind of autobiographical tales about their directors. And I think they haven't had the commercial hook that audiences are looking for.

10:09Alex Ossola:That big, broad appeal for an original movie?

10:11Ben Fritz:Right, exactly. When you think about the huge Pixar hits from the past, I could describe them to you in one line and you get it, right? Like, what if your toys talked? What if the monsters in your closet were real? What if your emotions were actual people talking inside your head? You get it really quickly. Pixar's last several original movies like Elio and Turning Red and Luca didn't have that kind of easy sales hook.

10:35Alex Ossola:Can Pixar even have like a Finding Nemo again? Like, what's different about releasing animated films now versus in the past?

10:42Ben Fritz:Post-pandemic people are just not going to theaters as much. And when they do, they strongly prefer franchises that they're already familiar with. The market for original movies of all stripes in Hollywood has really been struggling. And so I think realistically, they have to expect that an original hit may only gross$400 or$500 million compared to$600,$700,$800 in the past, which means it won't make much of a profit because these movies cost Pixar like$200 million to make. But nowadays, I think they just say, well, look, if it grosses$400 of$500 million, people like it. If it gets a lot of views on Disney +, that might just be enough, even if it doesn't make a big profit, for us to say, all right, this is a franchise.

11:21Ben Fritz:We're going to go ahead with it on the big screen in movies. And then they sell a lot of toys. And then they become theme park attractions. And then they're really well watched and rewatched on Disney +, and then they create sequels. And it's a flywheel, as they like to call it in the media business. And if Disney stock is going to go back on the rise, they really need to have new hit franchises that are making money throughout the company. and investors are confident are going to make money for years and years to come.

11:47Alex Ossola:That was Journal reporter Ben Fritz. Thanks, Ben.

11:50Ben Fritz:Sure, my pleasure.

11:51Alex Ossola:And that's what's news for this Monday afternoon. Today's show was produced by Pierre Bien-Aimé with supervising producer Tali Arbel. I'm Alex Osola for The Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening.

12:14Ben Fritz:Legal teams face more data and more scrutiny than ever. They need AI built for both. Relativity is the AI platform for legal work, delivering defensible AI that handles the tedious tasks so judgment stays where it belongs, with you. Learn more at relativity.com forward slash WSJ.