Special Election in Georgia Is a Test of Trump’s Base

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0:33Rebecca Picciotto:Tehran experiences some of the heaviest bombardment since the start of the conflict, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says Iran is, quote, badly losing. Plus, oil prices slide on investors' hope for the release of strategic oil reserves. And what today's special election in Georgia shows about what MAGA voters think of the Trump administration's military operations.

0:55Sabrina Siddiqui:This isn't just an issue of foreign policy for MAGA. It's an issue of identity. If Make America Great meant anything, it meant a rejection not just of Obama and Joe Biden, but a rejection of George Bush, Mitt Romney, that old Republican Party. And now here we are.

1:15Rebecca Picciotto:It's Tuesday, March 10th. I'm Alex Oseleff for The Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today.

1:29Rebecca Picciotto:In a press conference this morning, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Iran is, quote, badly losing and that the military operation would continue until Iran is decisively defeated.

1:39Aaron Zitner:Today will be yet again our most intense day of strikes inside Iran. The most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes.

1:50Rebecca Picciotto:Tehran is experiencing some of the heaviest bombardment since the start of the war. Recent strikes on oil facilities around the outskirts of the city caused huge dark clouds of smoke. Earlier, Iran's foreign minister said negotiations with the U.S. were off the table. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said the U.S. didn't expect Iran to declare that it has surrendered to end the conflict. A human rights group said that more than 1 ,200 Iranian civilians were confirmed killed in the war, while the UN says that more than 667 ,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon. Israel has issued evacuation orders in Lebanon as it fights Hezbollah there.

2:28Rebecca Picciotto:The Pentagon said today that about 140 U.S. troops have been injured since the conflict began 11 days ago, with eight of those people listed as severely wounded. Major U.S. indexes ended almost unchanged today, with the S &P 500 and the Dow dropping slightly and the Nasdaq rising less than 0.1%. In another dramatic day in oil markets, Brent crude futures dropped 11 % to under$88 a barrel. Oil has been selling off since hitting a peak Sunday night. Traders are waiting to hear the outcome of a G7 meeting on potentially tapping strategic oil reserves. Speaking of oil, we want to know how volatile energy prices are affecting you and your business, your profit, and your pricing strategy.

3:11Rebecca Picciotto:What does it mean for your plans today, next week, and later this year? Send a voice memo to wnpod at wsj.com or leave a voicemail at 212-416-4328. Leave your full name and location, and we might use it on the show.

3:32Rebecca Picciotto:Let's turn now to how the war with Iran is playing with American voters. Marjorie Taylor Greene's former district is holding a special election today to determine who will finish her term. She resigned in Washington after a high-profile split with President Trump. What do voters in Georgia's 14th congressional district think of the Trump administration's military campaigns? And what could the race say about Trump's support nationally? Our national politics reporter Sabrina Siddiqui spoke with WSJ reporters Aaron Zittner and Cameron McWhorter to find out.

4:06Aaron Zitner:Cam, Georgia's 14th congressional district is in the northwest corner of the state, a couple hours drive from Atlanta. What's this district like?

4:14Cameron McWhirter:I would say in many ways it's the heart of MAGA in the United States. It is very pro-Trump and has been for a long time. There are two leading Republican candidates, both who claim to be more MAGA than the other. One is Clay Fuller. He's a district attorney. He has gotten the endorsement of the president. Then there's another candidate named Colton Moore, who's very much a firebrand. It's likely in this low turnout special election that a Democrat, Sean Harris, might actually get the most votes. But then there will be a runoff. And in that runoff, everyone expects whoever wins the slugfest between the Republicans to win.

4:57Aaron Zitner:Marjorie Taylor Greene, who used to hold this seat, opposed Trump's foreign interventions. Is that issue especially important for voters here?

5:05Cameron McWhirter:The issue of foreign policy has come up with voters that I spoke with in the sense of, I'm concerned about going to the grocery store and how much things cost. I'm concerned about employment. I'm concerned about whether my kids are ever going to be able to buy a house. So what are we doing in Venezuela? Working class to poor people live in this district, and they want answers about the economy and the future of the country. And they are not interested in foreign wars, particularly the wars in the Middle East that we've been involved in for decades, a lot of young men from that area went off to fight and they didn't see a lot of result from all that hard work and in some cases, great sacrifice.

5:50Cameron McWhirter:So the bigger question, and it's an important one for Republicans heading into the midterms here in Georgia, is will it suppress turnout from a very strong Republican area? And if it does, that's very bad for Republicans statewide.

6:09Aaron Zitner:Aaron, have you seen a shift among Trump supporters nationally in their thinking around these military interventions?

6:16Sabrina Siddiqui:Well, this isn't just an issue of foreign policy for MAGA. It's an issue of identity. If Make America Great meant anything, it meant a rejection not just of Obama and Joe Biden, but a rejection of George Bush, Mitt Romney, John McCain, Paul Ryan, that old Republican Party. And now here we are. And remember, we bombed Nigeria lately. We've bombed Yemen last year. We've blown up boats in the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. And now Iran. The war with Iran is unpopular, almost every poll finds. But Republicans, they're pretty solidly behind this. Maybe 80 percent are saying they're OK with this for now.

7:00Sabrina Siddiqui:That means that 20 percent aren't. And that's unusual because Republicans are usually very unified behind the president. Polling is abundantly clear, including our polling at The Wall Street Journal, that voters feel Donald Trump has taken his eye off the ball. He was elected to bring prices down. He was the businessman president elected for business savvy to improve our economic lives. And he's putting all his attention elsewhere.

7:25Aaron Zitner:We spoke to one voter, Matt Fowler, a college student who's 21 years old, who voted early for Colton Moore, one of the many candidates in this race.

7:33Sabrina Siddiqui:He's not just going to be a yes man just because the president says something.

7:37Aaron Zitner:He calls foreign policy his second most important issue as a voter. And he regrets voting for President Trump in 2024, mainly because of the conflict with Iran.

7:48Sabrina Siddiqui:It feels like he's just completely gone against everything he stood for. And he was no more wars. And then first thing we do is we go and attack Iran. That's mainly the big thing that I'm against. I think we should have no involvement in that conflict. because it's not our war. We have nothing. We don't really have anything to do with it. It's Israel's war.

8:09Aaron Zitner:Aaron, what are you keeping an eye on as far as how this could affect the midterms?

8:14Sabrina Siddiqui:This is a time to keep in mind that things are fluid. I wouldn't hold on to any polling numbers right now. We start putting troops on the ground. That changes the situation entirely. What's going to happen with gas prices that are surely going to influence public opinion if those turn into be negative developments for the United States. If this war just turns more people off and gets them to say, you know, I just don't feel like voting this time, that's a problem for the Republican Party.

8:46Aaron Zitner:Aaron and Cam, thank you so much for sharing your insights. We really appreciate having both of you here.

8:52Sabrina Siddiqui:Good to be with you, Sabrina. All right.

8:54Aaron Zitner:And the White House responded, saying the Iran military action is, quote, as America first as it gets, and that the recent increases in oil and gas prices are short-term disruptions that will end when the war does.

9:06Rebecca Picciotto:Coming up, the latest home sale numbers and a new Senate bill that's got some housing developers on edge. That's after the break.

9:20Sabrina Siddiqui:I'm R.J. Decker, the private investigator uncovering the sunshine state's darkest secrets. Tuesdays, it's the premiere of ABC's hottest new crime show.

9:30Cameron McWhirter:R.J. freaking Decker has that live and breathe. He's a private eye. It's not a standard murder. It's someone bigger.

9:36Rebecca Picciotto:And a public mess.

9:38Aaron Zitner:Trying to get sent back to prison today?

9:39Rebecca Picciotto:You go to prison one time and suddenly it's all the jokes.

9:43Sabrina Siddiqui:R.J. Decker, series premiere, Tuesdays on ABC and stream on Hulu.

9:54Rebecca Picciotto:Congressional investigators published a report today on Medicare. The report found that the average Medicare beneficiary paid more than$200 in extra premiums last year because of alleged overpayments to private Medicare Advantage plans. Some health insurer practices helped lead to the higher premiums, the report said. Such controversial practices include adding diagnoses to trigger higher payments. A spokesman for a health insurance industry trade group said the committee's findings were based on flawed data and methodology and shouldn't dictate policy. Billionaire investor Bill Ackman has filed to take public his hedge fund firm and a new investment fund.

10:32Rebecca Picciotto:It's an attempted do-over of a botched 2024 offering of the investment fund and a bold bet to capitalize on his social media fame. And ExxonMobil plans to move its legal home to Texas from New Jersey, where it's been incorporated since 1882. Exxon CEO Darren Woods told the Wall Street Journal that the move is about protecting the company from what he called shareholder abuse. That's a reference to shareholder lawsuits that companies consider frivolous popping up in certain venues. Woods said Exxon hasn't had any issues with New Jersey, but believes Texas is more business-friendly. New data from the National Association of Realtors out today showed that home sales rose 1.7 % in February, rebounding from the previous month's big drop.

11:17Rebecca Picciotto:Analysts expected a decrease. Helping sales were mortgage rates that slipped below 6%, but rates rose back above 6 % after the Iran war began. News Corp, owner of the journal, operates Realtor.com under license from the Realtors Group. We've been talking on the show in recent weeks about how lawmakers are trying to make housing more affordable. Now it's coming with a new twist. Senators inserted a provision in their latest housing bill that would require large single-family home investors to sell off their rental properties seven years after building them. Rebecca Picciotto covers residential real estate for the journal, and she says the industry expects a significant impact if this becomes law.

11:57Aaron Zitner:So this seven-year sales provision would effectively dismantle the single-family rental industry for the largest institutional investors and real estate investment trusts. Investors are more reluctant to fund new construction or new homes that they expect to be rental housing but will effectively have to be sold within seven years of them being built. The build-to-rent developer community, they freaked out. So they have been forcefully in kind of an all-out sprint to negotiate this out of the bill.

12:29Rebecca Picciotto:The provision is part of a housing package that supporters say would make home ownership more accessible. Some analysts say this new provision would actually reduce new supply, leading to higher rents and home prices.

12:41Aaron Zitner:The bill-to-rent industry is kind of a niche sector, but it's growing. And for residents who can't necessarily afford homeownership, single-family rental homes allow them access to nicer suburbs, good school systems that they couldn't afford to own in.