The Record-Breaking Stakes of the SpaceX IPO

0:01At Oppenheimer, we're proven because we're grounded in discipline. For 145 years, we've been building and protecting wealth through every market cycle. With precision, clarity, and the courage to think boldly beyond the moment. This is what market-tested legacy looks like, for this generation and the next. Put the power of Oppenheimer thinking to work for you. Wealth management, capital markets, investment banking. Hey, What's News listeners, it's Sunday, June 7th. I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal, and this is What's News Sunday, the show where we tackle the big questions about the biggest stories in the news.

0:41And on the show this week, a blockbuster year for IPOs is about to kick into high gear when SpaceX goes public on Friday. The listing is set to be the biggest in Wall Street history and potentially dwarf the current IPO record threefold. It will not only test the endurance of a broad market rally, but stands to boost the fortunes of a universe of other space-related companies thirsty for new investment. In the countdown to Listing Day, we'll look back at SpaceX's role in paving the way for the broader space economy and consider where the company can possibly go from here. Let's get right to it.

1:18Well, with us this week to break down what could be a historic IPO and reflect on SpaceX's legacy our journal reporters, Corey Dreebush and Micah Maidenberg. Corey is our in-house IPO expert, while Micah covers the space industry. Corey, it's Thursday, June 4th, I should say. We're still more than a week out from this IPO at the time we're speaking, but we have received updated paperwork in advance of this public filing. You've been going through the company's preparations. Break down what we know at this point, the numbers behind this deal. What are we expecting? So SpaceX is bucking tradition.

2:00You can say when it's set its price for shares. Typically, companies set a range. And after days of meeting with investors and getting feedback, they then pick a price the night before their stock starts trading. In the case of SpaceX, they put out a filing saying we are going to sell about 556 million shares at a price of$135 a share. And they're saying take it or leave it. I've heard from talking to sources the goal was to eliminate drama in the process. It's a pretty crazy decision. We have seen it before with some past offerings, but it's definitely extremely unusual. A way to simplify the roadshow could also just be a statement of, hey, we know how valuable we are.

2:49You know, as you said, take it or leave it. We don't need to have another negotiation here at the 11th hour. It does seem to speak to how SpaceX is approaching this process of, look, we're going to appeal to indexes to let us in early. We're going to just tell you the price. It speaks to a very unconventional path that is being taken. Because really, when you think about it, an IPO is typically the first chance where all types of investors are able to speak up and give their opinions about how much they want to pay. It's really the first price discovery for a private company. And Corey, though, it's not the first time investors have had a chance to kind of peek under the hood because SpaceX submitted some paperwork several weeks back, fascinating insights into the profitability or lack thereof of the business.

3:40We did see about three weeks ago when SpaceX made its regulatory filing public, we did see what it earned in revenue in 2025. And that was nearly$19 billion. But now with this price point of$135 a share, folks can start to calculate price to sales. And when you look at those numbers, you can see that SpaceX is trying to be priced at about 93.6 times its sales. SpaceX was unprofitable in 2025. It lost almost$5 billion. Most of the money that it makes is from subscriptions to its Starlink satellite internet service and its rocket launches. It also has some revenues through its acquisition of XAI.

4:30When companies are going public, they often like to advertise what their TAM or total addressable market is. And that is a shorthand for what they see as their opportunities for future revenues. And SpaceX said in its IPO filing that its TAM is$28.5 trillion, which it says is the largest in human history. And a lot of that comes from what they see as their AI infrastructure opportunities. Micah, this is a great point to bring you in on. This is a business SpaceX that several years ago to some investors look kind of just like a glorified internet provider with rocket launch technology on the side.

5:15How could that be a multi-trillion dollar business? But now XAI is in the mix. What should we make of that? What is kind of fascinating about SpaceX in this conglomerate form, ranging from social media to space to AI, is that it does have both these literal and figurative moonshots ahead of it, according to the investor prospectus for this IPO. And it does have a very powerful operating business in Starlink. Starlink provides high-speed internet through the biggest satellite fleet in history. And I think for a lot of investors, that's given them some comfort to know that there is a big business already there in Starlink and one that has some real growth potential ahead of it.

5:59The rocketry that SpaceX has sort of mastered with its Falcon 9 vehicles also gives them immense credibility and a strategic asset that really no one else has been able to quite master yet. What is the expectation out over the next decade plus, Mike, about the landscape SpaceX is likely to be operating in? It sort of seems like maybe they've got a lot of real estate to themselves now, but that may not always be the case. There are a lot of launchers, Blue Origin included, that want to fly rockets a lot more. And the expectation is there's going to be a lot more rockets competing with SpaceX, trying to get their share of the launch market and sending up all sorts of satellites for the military, for communications purposes, internet satellites.

6:45And this bigger question about artificial intelligence satellites or orbital data centers is also on the table, too. SpaceX is building a huge part of their IPO about a future where they're operating scores, just an enormous fleet of satellites dedicated to AI compute. Jeff Bezos through Blue Origin wants to do the same. There are other companies that are already working on AI satellites as well. So just the next decade, a big part of it is going to be trying to figure out how real and how scaled up sort of artificial intelligence compute in space, you know, can really be. Put a pin in that, Micah, because after a short break, we're going to talk about the other entities reveling in the excitement ahead of SpaceX's IPO.

7:32Of course, this is the many other space companies benefiting from what is expected to be a major infusion of new money into the sector. Let's talk about that after the break.

7:45This podcast is brought to you by MassMutual. For 175 years, MassMutual has been there for policy owners, financial professionals, and communities through economic shifts and societal change. In a world that changes fast, strength and stability still matter, especially when it comes to helping people secure their future and protect the ones they love. Learn more at MassMutual.com. That's MassMutual.com.

8:25Corey, when you cover IPOs, I imagine that rarely are you reporting on companies that have singularly shaped their broader sector more than SpaceX has. Micah talking about this just before the break there. Tell us about the dynamic we have been seeing across space economy stocks in recent months. SpaceX does seem to be kind of raising all boats, no? SpaceX is coming to market at a time when it really exemplifies a lot of themes in investing. It's about the defense-related companies, which are doing very, very well. And there's also AI. Anything that's AI-related, that is where all the money seems to be going.

9:08There was this national security satellite company, Hawkeye 360, that went public earlier this year. And those shares did really well on its first day of trading. We've also seen for AI companies last month, AI chip makers, Cerebris Systems, went public. And its shares went crazy in its first day of trading. They had to raise the range for how much they were offering it to much higher than what they were initially anticipating. given investor demand. Micah, what is SpaceX's relationship to this sort of array of space economy companies, which in many ways are sort of technologically and financially able to exist because of the work it's done?

9:52One thing that lots of companies that are involved in space, whether they're really big established companies or startups, you know, looking to develop a technology, a question they often ask is, like, how do we relate to SpaceX? SpaceX is the predominant launcher right now. It's how you generally get to orbit. It has a big satellite design, manufacturing operation. And sometimes you'll see companies, you know, going head to head and competing with SpaceX. And the next week, they might be sort of teamed up on some project as well. But it's just this question of like, how do we deal with SpaceX is sort of one that a lot of executives and founders and engineers and investors do think hard about.

10:35And another question, Mike, I imagine is what do you do with SpaceX being kind of the only provider who can execute a number of missions on behalf of NASA and other wings of the U.S. government? I'm curious how SpaceX talks about the importance of its government contract work in the future and if there's any prospect in Washington of there being unease around a publicly traded company being the entity the government is so reliant on to realize some of its big national ambitions. There's always concern in Washington and in sort of national security circles, especially about being overly reliant on any one company.

11:11Because if you're in that position, then you're creating a potential risk for yourself if something happens to said company. Officials in D.C. sort of expect other rocket providers to sort of come online, ramp up and provide that services, provide that competition. regarding SpaceX as a publicly traded company, there's going to be more visibility into the company because they're going to be providing investor updates, quarterly reports, doing investor calls, that kind of thing that they weren't doing as a private entity. In our final moments, a question to both of you. Corey, starting with you, I'm just curious what you will be watching in the weeks, months to come post-IPO to get a read on where SpaceX is headed.

11:50Obviously, a lot of enthusiasm ahead of the listing, but that post-listing period, obviously a vital one as well. What really matters is you think about the IPO in kind of in staggered terms. You think of the first day of trading because if the stock does not trade well, that could be off-putting to investors because they will have just had some paper losses in the sense that their shares that they put a lot of money into are now worth less than they paid. that might make them more reticent to put more money into other risky IPOs going forward. And that will matter to, say, big AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic who are eyeing IPOs before the end of the year.

12:34Then, of course, over time, the first earnings report is going to matter. How do shares hold up in the first earnings report? SpaceX also has a staggered lockup release. So what that means is that most people who were in the company before the IPO agree not to sell their stock for a certain period of time after SpaceX starts trading. In recent years, we've seen bankers get a little more creative with these lockups and have early releases. So that will be interesting to see how does the market handle that supply of shares coming? Does the stock stay at whatever trading level it is or does it fall?

13:15It's going to be really interesting to watch. And I think the whole market is excited. Micah, those questions, Corey, raising, they're relevant not only for SpaceX, but for all these other space economy companies. Take us into your reporter's notebook. What will you be watching for? What I'll be looking for is this huge amount of capital that they're poised to raise. What does that mean for the Starship program? Starship, of course, is their next generation rocket for satellites, for deeper space missions, for crew visits to the moon, for example. What does it mean for Starlink and how that evolves to compete in internet services and telecom?

13:51What does it mean for AI satellites? How long will investors give the company a leash to sort of pursue this very tough technology and like build it up at scale? You have a company that has like a very established like culture. It's built around a lot of ideas that Musk holds very close to his heart, clearly. And now it's going to be operating in public with a lot of new money to spend and apply against like really tough technical goals. So yes, it's going to be fascinating to watch. General reporter Corey Driebush, thank you for being with us today. Thank you so much, Luke. And Micah, a pleasure as always.

14:31Thank you. Great to be here. Thanks, Luke. And that's it for What's News Sunday for June 7th. Today's show was produced by Anthony Bansi and Michael LaValle with supervising producer Melanie Roy. I'm Luke Vargas, and we will be back tomorrow morning with a brand new show. Until then, thanks for listening.

15:03Confluence, writing project updates, all without you lifting a finger. Meet Rovo, AI that works where your team already works, using your company's data and permissions to take action. Get started with Rovo at rovo.com. That's rovo.com.