In short
Podcast Notes: WSJ What’s News Episode - February 26, 2023
Episode Overview
- Title: Why Record Numbers of Americans Are Leaving the U.S.
- Host: Alex Ossola
- Key Contributors:
- Joe Parkinson, WSJ World Enterprise Chief
- Veronica Dagger, WSJ Personal Finance Reporter
- Benoit Morin, WSJ Reporter
Summary This episode discusses the unprecedented net negative migration in the U.S. during the previous year, the implications of falling mortgage rates, and a notable deposition by Hillary Clinton regarding Jeffrey Epstein. The episode concludes with updates on various business developments, including media acquisitions and environmental issues.
Key Topics
- Record American Emigration
- Statistic: The U.S. saw net negative migration for the first time since the Great Depression, with approximately 150,000 more people leaving than arriving.
- Analysis by Joe Parkinson:
- No accurate government data exists on American emigration since the Eisenhower administration.
- Research involves analyzing data from other countries to estimate the number of American citizens moving abroad.
- Catalysts for Emigration:
- Affordability: Rising costs in the U.S. prompt many to seek lower living costs abroad.
- Safety Concerns: An increase in gun violence influences families’ decisions to leave.
- Work Flexibility: Remote work options allow people to work for U.S. companies while living in other countries.
- Political Issues: Political volatility in the U.S. is a factor for some, but not the sole reason.
- Popular Destinations:
- Traditional choices like Portugal and Italy, as well as emerging trends in places like Vietnam and Albania.
- Countries actively seek to attract American migrants due to their capital and expertise.
- Mortgage Rate Decline
- Current Rate: Mortgage rates have fallen below 6% for the first time in three years (5.98% for 30-year fixed mortgages).
- Impact on Housing Market:
- Expected to boost home sales as buyers feel more confident.
- Concerns remain due to economic uncertainty and high home prices, property taxes, and insurance costs.
- A potential rise in home prices could occur as supply remains low.
- Hillary Clinton's Testimony on Epstein
- Clinton testified before a GOP-led House committee, stating she had no information about Jeffrey Epstein's activities.
- Her testimony is part of a bipartisan investigation; she accused Republicans of conducting a "fishing expedition."
- Former President Bill Clinton is also scheduled to testify.
- Corporate News
- Warner Bros. Discovery vs. Netflix: Warner Bros. claims Paramount's acquisition offer is superior to its deal with Netflix.
- NVIDIA: Despite a record quarter, shares fell by 5.5%, affecting overall market performance.
- Stellantis: Announced a significant annual loss due to its retreat from electric vehicles, with expectations of returning to profit soon.
- Environmental Updates
- A rise in pollution from U.S. power plants was reported, attributed to increased coal usage.
- The oil industry is seeking to ease restrictions on offshore wind projects to expedite energy infrastructure permits, amid tensions with Trump over wind energy.
Conclusion The episode highlights significant trends affecting American citizens, including the shift towards emigration driven by economic, social, and political factors. It also provides insights into the housing market and corporate developments, underlining the interconnected nature of these issues in today's economy.
Additional Notes
- Sign-Up: Listeners are encouraged to sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter for daily updates.
- Next Episode: Tune in for more insights and news updates tomorrow morning.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOMortgage Rates and Housing Market Impact
0:45 to 2:46
Discussion on the drop in mortgage rates and its effects on the housing market.
“In a late-breaking development, Warner Brothers Discovery says that Paramount's revised offer to buy it is superior to the deal it has with Netflix.”
Record Migration of Americans Abroad
2:46 to 5:54
Analysis of the reasons behind the increase of Americans leaving the U.S. and the countries they are moving to.
“The Brookings Institution, a think tank, puts the net loss at around 150 ,000 people.”
Hillary Clinton's Testimony on Epstein
5:54 to 7:53
Overview of Hillary Clinton's closed-door deposition regarding Jeffrey Epstein.
“At a performing arts center today near the Clintons' home in Chappaqua, New York, Hillary Clinton sat for a closed-door videotaped deposition on Jeffrey Epstein for a Republican-led House committee.”
Big Oil's Interests in Offshore Wind
8:13 to 11:03
Discussion on the oil industry’s stance on offshore wind energy and its implications.
“The increase in emissions comes partly from power plants burning more coal for electricity.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:03Alex Ossola:Hillary Clinton tells Congress she has no information about Jeffrey Epstein. Plus, why a record number of Americans are leaving the U.S. and why other countries want them.
0:13Joe Parkinson:The Americans are definitely coming, and not just for holiday. Places that you've read about a little bit, like Portugal, like Italy. But it's also happening in places that you wouldn't perhaps know. Countries are very, very interested in attracting Americans because they bring capital with them and they bring know-how.
0:29Alex Ossola:And mortgage rates dropped below 6%. What does it mean for the housing market? It's Thursday, February 26th. I'm Alex Oselev for The Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today.
0:48Alex Ossola:In a late-breaking development, Warner Brothers Discovery says that Paramount's revised offer to buy it is superior to the deal it has with Netflix. Netflix now has four business days to counter. Netflix did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Go to WSJ.com for more on this breaking story. Mortgage rates have fallen below 6 % this week for the first time in more than three years. Freddie Mac said today that the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 5.98%. WSJ personal finance reporter Veronica Dagger says that might help boost home sales going into the crucial spring home buying season.
1:24Alex Ossola:It's good news for some buyers because they'll feel more confident buying a house with a mortgage rate that starts in the fives versus the 6 % range. That said, so much of it right now in this market is more of a psychological thing. Yes, you have real savings the lower the mortgage rate goes. However, there's a lot of things stopping buyers. If you are worried about an environment where people are losing their jobs, that sense of uneasiness about this economy is holding a lot of people back. Also, owning a home has become increasingly expensive. It's not just the mortgage rate. Home insurance keeps going up in so many areas of the country, along with property taxes.
2:10Alex Ossola:We still have really high home prices as well. What you could actually see happen in certain areas is home prices going up because of this drop in mortgage rates. That's also tough for buyers because there isn't a whole lot of supply in certain markets. Speaking of housing, New York City Mayor Zoran Mamdani met President Trump in Washington today to discuss building more housing. The two political opposites have found common ground on the issue of affordability.
2:40Alex Ossola:Last year, the U.S. experienced something that hasn't happened in almost a century. Net negative migration. More people moved out than moved in. The Brookings Institution, a think tank, puts the net loss at around 150 ,000 people. The Trump administration has said this shows the effects of its immigration crackdown with 675 ,000 deportations. But there's also something else going on. America's own citizens are leaving in record numbers. A Wall Street Journal analysis of data from 15 countries showed that at least 180 ,000 Americans left too. Joe Parkinson, who leads the journal's World Enterprise team, joins me now from London.
3:18Alex Ossola:Joe, I want to start with how we actually know that this is happening. Does the U.S. government measure the number of citizens who are moving elsewhere?
3:25Joe Parkinson:The government hasn't kept accurate data on that since around about the Eisenhower administration. What we needed to do was basically look at the other end of the telescope. So instead of looking to the U.S. government, go to every country, find the data, pull the data to try and create a picture of how many Americans were actually moving abroad. And as we went through that data, a historical pattern began to emerge.
3:48Alex Ossola:When did this outflow of Americans start, really?
3:52Joe Parkinson:This is not a new story entirely. What's changed to magnify the numbers in recent years really are big shifts in technology and things like remote work that you can now work for an American company but be based in Lisbon, in Bali, Mexico City. That wasn't really possible, you know, five years ago, let alone 20 years ago. The kind of Americans that are doing this has really changed. Once upon a time, it used to be very well credentialed people, perhaps on assignments for blue chip companies or retirees. Now it's people of all stripes, young families, students, single people.
4:27Alex Ossola:From speaking to individuals, what are some of the sort of catalysts for making people make this change?
4:33Joe Parkinson:I think affordability is a big one. There's also a sense of safety. One motif that kept coming up with young families was the idea of gun violence, which has become more and more of a problem. There was also the idea there were life balance. They'd be able to get away from the perception in America that your time is very, very squeezed. And then there's the unavoidable issue of political volatility. You know, what is wrong to say, I think, is that this is just a very recent phenomena or a Trump phenomena. That is a very partial and politicized kind of slant on this. That is definitely a push factor for some people, but it does not explain the totality of this phenomenon.
5:11Alex Ossola:So where are people going and what impact is that having on their new places of residence?
5:18Joe Parkinson:You're seeing this in Portugal, Italy, places that have been popular for a long time, like the UK, Canada, Mexico, Ireland. But it's also happening in places that you wouldn't perhaps know. Record numbers we see in Vietnam, in the Philippines, in Bali, even in places like Albania. Countries are very, very interested in attracting Americans because they bring capital with them and they bring know-how. And so European countries in particular have done a lot of work to create favorable visa regimes, favorable tax regimes.
5:50Alex Ossola:That was WSJ World Enterprise Chief Joe Parkinson. Thanks, Joe.
5:54Joe Parkinson:Thanks so much.
5:59Alex Ossola:At a performing arts center today near the Clintons' home in Chappaqua, New York, Hillary Clinton sat for a closed-door videotaped deposition on Jeffrey Epstein for a Republican-led House committee. She says she had no prior knowledge of Jeffrey Epstein's wrongdoing and that she had no information to share about any criminal activity by him or his associate Ghislaine Maxwell. She accused House Republicans of conducting a, quote, fishing expedition. The House Oversight Committee's chair, Kentucky Republican James Comer, said his panel was pursuing a serious and bipartisan investigation.
6:31Joe Parkinson:No one's accusing at this moment the Clintons of any wrongdoing. They're going to have due process. But we have a lot of questions. And the purpose of the whole investigation is to try to understand many things about Epstein.
6:45Alex Ossola:Former President Bill Clinton's testimony is scheduled for tomorrow. It's the first time a former first lady and president are speaking to a congressional Committee under subpoena. Meanwhile, Berga Brenda, the president and chief executive of the World Economic Forum, said today that he would step down after a review into his past connections with Epstein. The organization is behind the annual meeting of executives and political leaders in Davos, Switzerland. It began the review earlier this month. Brenda has previously denied wrongdoing. Coming up, why big oil wants President Trump to stop his battle with the wind industry.
7:20Alex Ossola:That's after the break.
7:22Joe Parkinson:Thank you.
7:52Joe Parkinson:Wieso steuer?
7:59Alex Ossola:We're exclusively reporting that pollution from U.S. power plants rose last year. It's a rare uptick in an otherwise long-term downward trend. An environmental group, the Natural Resources Defense Council, conducted the analysis of data from the Environmental Protection Agency. The increase in emissions comes partly from power plants burning more coal for electricity. The Trump administration has pushed to use coal and rolled back Biden-era climate regulations. The EPA says focusing on a single year of emissions data obscures a longer-term decline. And while President Trump has promoted coal, he's been battling the wind industry.
8:34Alex Ossola:He says offshore wind farms like the one off the coast of Martha's Vineyard are ugly, expensive, and destructive for wildlife. And he's blocked efforts to build new ones. Trump's actions have plunged the wind industry into turmoil, but now it's gaining a surprising ally. Big Oil. Benoit Morin covers the oil and gas industry for the journal and is here to tell us more. Benoit, why is the oil industry asking President Trump to stop this battle against offshore wind?
8:59Joe Parkinson:Right. It's sort of a surprising development. The short answer is that the oil and gas industry is desperate to get legislation passed to be able to speed up permits for energy infrastructure. And it really wants to build more pipelines. But as part of those negotiations, Democrats in the Senate have said, well, as long as Trump keeps going after offshore wind, we're freezing everything out. So the oil and gas industry is asking Trump essentially, hey, could you cool it down on offshore wind for a minute so we can get this legislation passed? You know, if you keep going after those guys, it's going to potentially backfire against us because we won't be able to build, you know, the projects that we want to build.
9:41Alex Ossola:Why is this so important to the oil and gas industry? What's at stake for them here?
9:46Joe Parkinson:What's at stake is their ability to ship more of their products to new markets. And we're talking mostly about natural gas pipelines. Those have been blocked by green groups. Groups have become very good at using the quartz to block those projects. And the oil and gas industry is very eager to reform those laws and the permitting process in general. And it's kind of a perfect moment for the industry because everyone's aligned on making permitting easier because of just this wave of energy demand the U.S. is facing. So it's really Trump that's the hold up here.
10:22Alex Ossola:The White House says Trump's position is that wind farms are a liability that jeopardizes the safety of the American people. What is Trump saying?
10:31Joe Parkinson:Trump has not shown any signs of wanting to concede anything. And I will note that Trump has been successful in holding wind projects hostage, as it were, threatening to block them or outright blocking them and in exchange getting, for instance, one natural gas pipeline pushed through regulators in New York state. So I think that's one of the ways that the administration is thinking about its leverage here.
11:00Alex Ossola:That was WSJ reporter Benoit Morin. Thanks, Benoit.
11:03Joe Parkinson:Thank you.
11:08Alex Ossola:In U.S. markets, NVIDIA's blockbuster quarter wasn't enough to reassure investors. It logged a jump in profit and record sales, but shares fell 5.5 % today. That dragged on the Nasdaq, which dropped 1.2%. The S &P fell about half a percent, while the Dow was flat. Stellantis is reporting an annual loss equivalent to more than$26 billion last year, reflecting big charges from its retreat from electric vehicles. Like other automakers, it's investing in hybrids and old-school combustion engines again. And Stellantis expects to return to profit this year with help from relaunched cars like the Jeep Cherokee.
11:45Alex Ossola:And Walmart has agreed to pay$100 million to settle claims from the Federal Trade Commission that the retailer deceived delivery drivers about how much they could earn from pay and tips. The company said it valued its drivers and was improving transparency.
12:02Alex Ossola:The latest round of talks over Iran's nuclear program wrapped up today without a deal. Both sides are still far apart on key issues. The U.S. wants Iran to destroy its three main nuclear sites and send its enriched uranium to the U.S. Officials also say a nuclear deal must last forever rather than have restrictions sunsetting over time. Iran objects to these demands. Officials say the U.S. and Iran would likely meet again for talks. President Trump has threatened to take military action if a deal isn't reached. And that's what's news for this Thursday afternoon. Today's show is produced by Pierre Bien-Aimé with supervising producer Tali Arbel.
12:39Alex Ossola:I'm Alex Osula for The Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening.
From the publisher
P.M. Edition for Feb. 26. Last year, the U.S. had net negative migration for the first time since the Great Depression: More people left than came. Record numbers of American citizens left the country. WSJ world enterprise chief Joe Parkinson discusses what’s driving these departures. Plus, Warner Bros. Discovery says Paramount’s revised offer to buy it is superior to the deal it has with Netflix. And in a closed-door, videotaped deposition in front of a GOP-led House committee, Hillary Clinton said she has no information about Jeffrey Epstein. Alex Ossola hosts.
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