$HIMS: Paul Cerro wouldn't trust the CEO to walk his dog. He's still long. Why? | Cedar Grove

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0:28you're about to listen to yet another value podcast with your host me andrew walker uh today i've got paul sarah on for the second time paul runs cedar grove capital and he has a thesis on hymns the ticker is hymns uh i'll include a link to the ticker in to his write-up in the show notes but he's got a thesis on hymns and he has a it's a really fascinating conversation i i just did i really enjoyed it i learned a lot i think we had a really good banter but he's got a really deep expertise here. He used to work for a HIMSS competitor. So he's got, you know, actual sector expertise. And this is like, he's done a write up on, this is his third time he's written up, traded kind of quote unquote, traded the stock.

1:06He went long, the stock to great success. He went short, the stock to great success. And now he's long the stock game. So we're going to dive into all of it. We're going to talk competitive outlook, valuation, all sorts of stuff. I've got a lot of questions. It's an exciting story, but I think you're going to hear like, Like in polls, share some of these skepticisms. I don't think I'm saying anything like questions on management, questions on ad bags, everything. But I think it's a really good conversation. I think you're going to enjoy it. So we're going to get there in one second. But first, a word from our sponsors.

1:32And I'll just dive into the sponsor advertisement right now. This podcast is sponsored by him. This podcast is sponsored by Trotta. If you've been listening to this podcast for a while, you know I'm always pitching Trotta. And there's a reason I love Trotta. Trotta is two buysiders who hop on and talk about a stock that they are both invested in. Sometimes you'll have someone who owns the stock and someone who's short the stock. Sometimes you'll have two people who own the stock. Sometimes you'll have two people who short the stock. But they'll actually be talking about what matters for their investment thesis on the stock.

2:03What drives the stock higher? What drives the stock lower? And hey, here's the great news. Well, there's two pieces of great news. Number one, Trotta now has an MCP. So if you are working with your favorite AI agent and you say, hey, I'm researching this company, you can just say, go pull the Trotta transcript and tell me what other investors who are looking at this transcript are thinking about. So it's one of the first things I do every time I'm looking at a company right now. But B, the other great news is Trotta has, if I am going to count one, two, three, four different transcripts on HEMS, all of them are less than a year old, including one that is roughly a month old.

2:35So they've got a lot of coverage on HEMS. If you're interested in HEMS, you should listen to this podcast. You should go read Paul's note and then you should go on Trotta, follow the link in the show notes and go read Trotta's HEMS coverage. And I think I'll be able to convince Trotta to give me the most recent hymns coverage that they have as a kind of free trial if you follow the link to the show notes. But thanks again to Trotta for sponsoring this podcast. If you like this podcast, you will love Trotta. Trotta, T-R-A-T-T-R-A-T-A dot com. Go check it out. And now to the podcast. All right. Hello and welcome to the Yet Another Value podcast.

3:08I'm your host, Andrew Walker. And with me today for the second time, I believe, it is Paul Serra from Paul. you're just a man of, as I was joking before the pod, you've got an empire that resembles my own over at Cedar Grove. You can tell everybody what you're into, but how's everything going, Paul? Yeah, I wouldn't say empire is quite the right word yet. Maybe ambition is the empire, but we'll see how that happens. But no, no, no, things have been well. I'd say like on the investing front, it's been an interesting year to say the least, but I don't think anyone would disagree with that statement.

3:40But just like all interesting years, it makes for opportunities. and I think we have one on deck right now. Cool. Well, speaking of that, let's just start this podcast the way I do with every podcast. Quick disclaimer to remind everyone nothing on this podcast is investing advice. There's a full disclaimer at the end of the pod and in the show notes if you want it. Paul, the company we're going to talk about today is Hymns. I'm going to include a link to your most recent write-up in the show notes and I'm laughing because I say most recent write-up because I follow Cedar Grove and I know you've been long, you've been short, now you're long again.

4:11Not to spoil the plot or anything, But, you know, I think that history is really interesting when people think about that, because, you know, there's the old sell side thing. When somebody does a double upgrade or double downgrade, those are the analysts you really pay attention to. And that's the those are the types of double upgrades and downgrades that move the stock a lot of times just because we're like, oh, this guy was bearish and something has inflected. Something's changed for you. You were bullish and right. And then you were bearish and right. And now you're bullish again. So that's my overview.

4:39I'll just toss it over to you. What is HIMSS? What is your history with it and why is it so interesting? Yeah, absolutely. So I think in my own little disclaimer on this, because it's a special special situation, not trade wise, just for myself, a special situation. But so full disclosure, yeah, we are long stock. In a previous life, I did work for their competitor, Roe, R.O., had not been with the company since January of 2022. So I have no affiliation. I don't I don't know anything that's going on over there. outside of the headlines that we all see. So my knowledge comes from being able to build this business or help build this business and then translate that into an investment in IMS.

5:21Can I just pause you right? I mean, look, I noticed that in your report. I think that's super interesting background too, right? Now, it's not quite Leopold over at Situational working for OpenAI and then marrying the wife, marrying the chief of staff of Anthropic, but you've got industry context, industry background, and probably still some friends in the industry, which I'm not saying it's MNPI, but you get some color and some background. So I just think that adds to a level of expertise. So Paul, stop the parents. I'm actually glad you said that because obviously whenever you try to hear anybody's thoughts about a company, right?

5:51You always try to understand, okay, well, what's your credibility with your knowledge there? And I always try to tell everybody, listen, I'm not saying I'm the perfect person for it, but my experience has been, I have helped grow this business. I probably know it better than anybody on Twitter who is not building it themselves or has built it themselves. So it's like I'm not just pulling this information out of thin air. It's because I've done it. So when I speak, it comes from an experiential background, which is why, as you alluded to earlier, we did make our first investment into HIMSS in 2024.

6:30And that whole premise was around just the future of what telehealth was going to be. and who were going to be the biggest players in it, HIMSS being one of them. And the thesis revolved around foregoing insurance, opting in for cash pay, because the U.S. healthcare market is just bananas for how it's being run. I don't think anyone's going to debate that at all. The cash pay system basically disrupts the entire thing, the entire modality of how you see providers, um how uh how you get billed how you pay um why don't you just quickly describe the cash pay system so that we're not tossing out to people who are oh right sorry yeah so uh most of the american health care system right now is insurance based right whether it's employer employee um insurance through your employer uh insurance through the government or uh you pay out of pocket for the insurance that if you're just like you know a lone person or you know a single member LLC or like whatever you pay for your own insurance.

7:30Otherwise, the unfortunate thing there is you're kind of shit out of luck. And then you have to pay out of pocket, which is why people forego even calling an ambulance to go to the hospital because that's like a$2 ,000 out of pocket cost. And it's like, I'd rather take a$50 Uber and roll the dice. I was playing an intramural sport once and somebody hit their head and cut their head. And it wasn't like life threatening, but they called an ambulance and they brought him and everybody was joking after they were like, this is the most expensive intramural game of all time. That dude just racked up a twenty five hundred dollar hospital bill playing a, you know, 30 year old ref league game.

8:09Yeah, it's like so sad that that's the state of things. But unfortunately, that is the state of things. So because so much is wrong with the American health care system, I guess on the insurance side, being able to disrupt it by paying cash only for things, arguably, depending on who you talk to, arguably could be a better alternative, which, you know, players like HIMSS and Rho are effectively trying to prove out that, hey, with a cash pay model, meaning I don't have to forget insurance, hold hard, open my wallet cash. I can get things for cheaper, whether it's drugs, whether it's services, etc.

8:46It could it could be cheaper if I did it that way than if I went through my insurance. And that's basically a whole entire disruption of cash pay telehealth. OK, so let me pause right there. Why would that be the case? Right. Because I understand you go to him and you get one hundred thirty five dollars. But my insurance insurance is often paid for by your employer. Right. And there's tax reasons for that and everything. And then the insurance thing, like I go to a hospital and every time I go to the hospital, You know, I had a pet tear a couple of years ago and I had to get it repaired and they hit me with the bill and it was like twenty thousand dollars, you know, and then it said your health insurance negotiated the price from twenty thousand dollars down to two thousand dollars.

9:23Now, I understand if I went to the doctor and I said, hey, I'm going to cash pay for the surgery, I could probably negotiate the price down. But why wouldn't, you know, the health insurance? We're going to be talking to you. He wants in a second. Why wouldn't the health insurance that goes to Nova Nordisk and says, hey, I want to negotiate the price for we go v for you know five million health insurance members why wouldn't they get a better price than you or hymns going to them and saying hey we want a cash price for you know we can't even tell you how many people because we need to go market get them on instagram and pop them in here so why would that create a discount yeah because i think the way the system is set up right now um it's actually i don't think it is is so at least the american market it's almost rewarding inefficiency effectively.

10:11And again, there's like, I mean, that this will probably be a discussion for later, but there's a lot of points within the journey of coverage of healthcare servicing that, in my opinion, don't need to exist, but they do exist. And it's almost kind of like everybody needs to get fed. Everybody's beaks need to get wet. And when you have incentives that are aligned to how can I maximize my own profit, each one of those barriers are going to be like no pay that you got to pay the toll and then we can negotiate we can negotiate quote unquote things um you know like um a very easy example to your question is that like you know you go to a hospital and you get sick or whatever emergency room you get the bill like you just said uh in the mail oh your insurance negotiated down from forty thousand dollars to thirty thousand dollars you're like oh wow my insurance is working for me but the thing is if you just you know talk to the hospital and actually like negotiate with them then all of a sudden a cash pay alternative is like dramatically less it's not even thirty thousand dollars anymore it could be you know five thousand dollars could be like two thousand dollars etc etc and there's so this is why disparity of like everybody trying to bilk insurance because they one know they can and two you know that they can get uh just massive premiums on their services and their drugs etc in order to make a living or whatever.

11:36And that's why the cash pay alternative is like, you know what, screw all of that. It's almost like, I hate saying this, but it's kind of the easiest analogy. It's almost like a Walmart everyday low price. We can just make it a cash pay alternative, be like, you don't have to worry about the insurance or what insurance you have, what kind of insurance you have, what state you're operating in. This is going to be a flat price. The price is the price. And that's what I think is interesting because it's kind of distracting that whole thing. So let's let's go. So hopefully listeners have a good overview of the cash paper, insurance, everything.

12:07Let's go back to HIMSS and talk about, you know, in 2024, you come into them long thinking, hey, cash pay revolution. Let's go back a little bit from the history and then we can pull it to today and that opportunity right now. Yeah, so it's really for I actually invested in it before all the compounded GLP ones even happened is because I was like, I know exactly what this business is. I know exactly what it's trying to accomplish. I know how it's going to accomplish it. And ever since they went public through a D-SPAC, they've shown that they can actually slowly generate cash, become profitable.

12:41And that I know with scale and the unit economics being better over time, that trend would continue. And then, of course, you get the benefit in 2024 when they launched compounded GLP-1s. And most people know that story. It has exploded in growth. So we were very happy in 2024. just because we knew what the end goal was and we knew to direct what the trajectory was going to be. Our problem arose as early as August in 2024, and that was after the Q2 earnings call. So Q2 2024. And I always knew that the compounded GLP ones had an expiration date because it's a loophole. You exploit the loophole for as long as you can, and then game over.

13:28It was a loophole just for people who don't know. If you're if a drug is in shortage, if the FDA declares a shortage, you can start compounding the drug and kind of go around basically patent law. Right. Yeah. And I believe what you're referring to is sometime around 10, like the shortage was declared over. And the FDA kind of said, hey, all you compounders, time to stop compounding because there's patent protection here. And you can go anywhere you want with that. But just so people know the background. No. Yeah. You're right. So if you have a shortage, other pharmacies that technically wouldn't be allowed to make this drug can circumvent those rules legally.

14:00and fill the gap of demand by increasing the supply that is obviously in shortage. So I knew there was an expiration date. But then Andrew, the CEO, goes, yeah, I think even after the shortage ends, I think we're still going to keep making it. And I'm like, wait a second, back up. Because that's not allowed. You can't do that. So to avoid having to go through that whole rabbit hole, You know, like come January of 2025, you know, through our own research, which we flagged to everybody that read our work, we're like, there is a massive problem brewing. And it's that one, the short, there is no more shortage anymore.

14:38Like we've talked, we did research where we talked to, I think it was like 18 different states and like 32 cities, like pharmacies in 32 cities. And for the drug, we could get it either the same day or the next day. the worst case scenario would be like a couple of days out we'd have to wait um that is not grounds for a shortage anymore that means that the drug is readily accessible so we put our we put our research like oh no this is a problem this shortage is this shortage is imminently about to end and once it ends then the party's over for combat and to gpl once um uh so again long story short um fda pulled the short ended the shortage in the third week of february of 2025 that's um everybody was trying to time that shortage end so the stock memed from like 25 to 72 dollars a share and then it just immediately crashed after that um and then throughout the year i kept saying listen they're over indexing to gop ones this business is reliant on gop one the whole growth is basically coming from GLP ones.

15:42The core business is slowing down. It's decelerating. So either they need to pull some rabbits out of their hat or they have to keep doing this, quote unquote, arguably, I want to say illegal, but not compliant prescribing of GLP ones. I mean, you would know better than me, but I think the FDA ended up not being too happy with So I think that's great background here. Why don't we kind of fast forward it to today and kind of the opportunity you're seeing as, again, people can read the report, but you are now long. And I think you kind of see the business inflecting to from the GLP one reliance into a completely new model.

16:22So why don't we fast forward to that? Absolutely. So we actually covered our last short trade at the end of Q1 earnings this year. So once it broke 14, I was like, OK, victory lap, took it. And then once the litigation risk effectively was subdued, so once Novo Nordisk sued HIMSS for IP infringement, and then they worked out some deal, that kind of went away. I'm not saying it's gone forever because they dismissed the suit, I believe, without prejudice. So they can bring it back up if HIMSS steps out of line. But what I was still bullish on in 2024 is still happening now, just in a different way.

17:01And one of the big things, like I know you read it, but so many bulls and analysts are focusing on him's ability to just market and dispense drugs efficiently and effectively. That's not wrong, per se. The problem there is that the emphasis on that is wrong because the whole reason why this business exists is because they can market very, very well to you, to me, to some 50 -year-old person sitting at home on Facebook, etc. That is the table stakes part of the business. If they don't continue doing that, then there's no business to be had. So when they keep talking about, oh, the peptide launches, oh, they keep talking about testosterone, or they keep talking about the generic GLP ones in Canada, in the UK, it's like, okay, great.

17:55That's all great. It's a net positive. But the thing is, they need to do that. It's not an if. It's a must. My part is that everybody's missing what the actual play here is, which I believe started with them offering lab services. is that the company has not had an issue getting customers. They have had an issue keeping customers. And that is where they're bleeding, is that if you look at the subscriber numbers, we last like three quarters, like they've barely grown, relatively speaking. And that's after having a blockbuster year. So my point was having data and having insights through various forms that they are actively already working on.

18:38It's not like it's a pipe dream or a hypothetical. They're already doing it. But that's where the value is really going to be coming from, because if they can improve patient outcomes, if they can improve the data points so that these customers retain better or more active, more engaged, feel more heard, that acknowledge that they are a unique individual, they will stay on. That increases their LTV, dramatically reduces their payback period. And it's a scalable product, not just in the domestic market, but internationally. that is where I think everybody fails to realize what the value is and not necessarily just them launching new products because that's a gift that they need to do that perfect so if I'm hearing you correctly what you're saying is look the market is really excited and really focused on this basically GLP one dispenser or whether it's peptides or whatever like you know hims has in their deck I think it was slide 28 their payback period to acquire a customer when they online market or however they are is under is about six months right yeah so the market is just really excited they've got this like really fast really short term payback period we grab customers we get them in the door and we're really profitable and what you're saying is yeah that's great like payback period of six months and if the average customer lasts a year you're basically doubling your money that's awesome but that's a as you're saying that's a really high churn business and the problem with that business is high churn businesses you know they run into a growth problem when they start churning on you're you're saying hey the real play is they get that person in the door and they say, hey, we get the data, we get your lab.

20:12And all of a sudden that one year goes to two years, goes to three years, goes to a lifetime because they say, hey, we've got your lab data from when you were 25, 30, 35. And by the way, that's also a great business too, because you come in and you get your labs and you say, hey, I want testosterone. I think it's kind of their third or fourth store right now. I want testing for testosterone. And then three years later, they say, hey, how about cancer? How about cholesterol? They just start adding up. So is that kind of the transformation and the inflection that you're seeing that you think the market's missing?

20:41Yeah, absolutely. Because, I mean, if you look at even – forget – actually, forget HEMS for a second because it'll loop back into HEMS. But it's important to understand what the market landscape is. I know you do excellent work when you look at your markets. You can see – there you go. There you go. This is where I was going to drive the next question to see. So, yes, you see where I'm going. Yeah, so self-punt to that. But, yeah, so you look outside the market, when you look at VC funding and where it's going, right? In 2020 and 2021, it was all telehealth. If anybody was doing telehealth, if anybody was doing anything online with a provider, VC money just threw money at you.

21:19However, if you fast forward to today, when people ask me, what's the moat? Yeah, it's actually really hard because everybody can just start it. The guy who was in the New York Times for Medvi, right? He's a one-man compounded GLP-1 business who was making like, what, like a billion dollars in revenue and like 60 million in profit. Granted, that's completely fraud. But this goes to show that literally anybody or any group of people can just start up a business, target a certain condition, and boom, there's a new telehealth company. So what I was arguing for is look at the market, look where the money's going.

21:53Right now, it's all data. It is, I mean, there's still some conditions, condition investment, but data. So your whoop band, my aura ring, which I'm not wearing right now, I should, but like aura ring, other devices that can track your data and be able to not only give you insights, but then also potentially give you curated recommendations for what you could do and what you could prove on. And then also give you like a look back of like, oh yeah, how did I feel, you know, six months ago? like how's my sleep progressed since then right and there's actually one before um before you jump in is that there's one company that i was so shocked that i read about they are creating a uh toilet seat so that when you have bowel movements i saw they can they can track they can track that you're basically you're like your your um your waste or your excrement that comes out and tells you like how how like healthy it is based on like your gut biome and i'm like Like, that's nuts, right?

22:52So data is actually one of the biggest areas of VC investment right now, and for good reason. So let me give – there's two angles of pushback. I want to go there, right? Actually, there's three. There's valuation, there's transformation, and there's management. Let's start with transformation because I think it's the more interesting and fun one, right? So what you're saying is you've got this business that – let's just say they sell GLP-1s, and I think these guys are going to – when peptides are legalized, I think these guys are going to just crush it in peptides that we can talk. There are various questions there, right?

23:24You've got this business that does, you know, sells to customers for a year to 18 months, makes a great money off them, all this sort of stuff, selling branded drugs, off-branded drugs, compounded drugs, whatever it is. You're saying, hey, I think they can transform ladder up into this long-term data business that gets a lot stickier. And I hear that, but like, I worry that it's such a transformation. And we mentioned Whoop and Oura Rings. Like whoop and aura rings are, are trying to do that. Right. And you mentioned data is the key. Whoop and aura rings have the data, right? Like my whoop has literally every, every second of the day.

24:00I think they argue it's a hundred times per second. They're tracking my heartbeat and they got all this off and they're always pushing me to do measurements, put my weight in everything. And I hear you. I'm sure, uh, Hames will probably try to do that, but because I interact with the whoop and I, I need to record my workouts on it every day and all that sort of stuff. Like whoop has that daily interaction with me and they have unique heart rate data that no one else has. So my two pushbacks with him would be they don't have that like wearable like whooping or have the wearable and they have unique data from that.

24:29Whereas what him is trying to do is they're trying to get it in through labs, right? Blood work labs. And that's a lot more commoditized. A lot of people can get that. I mean, whoop is always saying, hey, Andrew, send us your blood work. And I have not done done that per se. And then, you know, the other thing is on the wearables like I would not invest. I love my whoop. I would not invest in the whoop round because I hear you on unique data. But on my other wrist, for those who are on YouTube, I've got my Apple Watch. And, you know, there is something to Apple Watch does take your health. It does take a lot of this data.

24:58And if you're whoop, you're always betting that, hey, we'll be able to keep longer better life or convenience or something that Apple will just never attack that. I don't know if that's a great bet for whoop. So my two pushbacks, Hugh, would be, hey, they're trying to go into this data play. and that's what you're kind of saying the inflection is. I don't see what's unique about their data play. Like a whoop, I at least see where the uniqueness is there. And B, aren't you always at risk of, even if you say, hey, they can figure out a way, aren't you kind of always at risk at this guy and Google on the other end coming?

25:30And, you know, these guys aren't the only one. Like Amazon is clearly dabbling around in this place. They've got a lot of different telehealth plays. Aren't you at risk of, oh, you unlock it and oh, boom, a giant swoops in and kills them. So that would be my pushback on the transformation angle. So a lot to unpack there. But so that's why it's the most interesting and the most fun piece of the story. Right? No, it is because it's because you are betting on like what the future actually is going to be and who and who basically wins at that future. If you're right about the future, then who wins with that with that reality?

26:02And so a few things to unpack. One. So, yeah, I would agree with you. Like the whoop the whoop device, like I think was last value to like ten billion dollars. so they were value that i read that and i'm like what like i was like i was i just didn't make heads or tails of that so either somebody knows something that i definitely built or people are just so willing to you know pay a premium uh for that company on just a wearable device and the data because they don't they don't do anything else and it's actually really interesting i don't know if you caught this when you said it you said i have a whoop and it reminds me all the time to upload my lab results no no they so the whoop if i open it every every time i open it the first thing it says is hey go get labs and they want you to pay for like the whoop lab and like get the blood test and send it oh good okay always trying to get them to get me to send it to them and i'm like i i don't really want to pay 200 bucks for you guys to get my blood test right now yeah so here's okay so here's my pushback on that is that all the wearables with their data are moving, I don't know if that's upstream or downstream, maybe it's upstream, in order to get healthcare data and then being able to recycle it into their own system.

27:15Where my argument against your pushback is that if you're already with a platform that already handles all of your medications, arguably, you would probably want to stick with that place for all of your prescriptions, for all your provider access, for all of your follow-ups, you know, et cetera, et cetera, and then be able to some, I don't know how it would work, somehow have some like API plugin with, you know, a Whoop device or a, your order ring or something where it can sync, something we can manually update. The bare case on Whoop is HIMSS does that and they just say, hey, we'll just take the data off your Apple Watch and you don't need the Whoop subscription, right?

27:54So you just get that, the Apple Watch data we plug in on API and boom, you've just saved i i think whoop is like 250 or like i don't remember what it's basically priced yeah we've just we've just cut you out of 250 per year and we're giving you like uh we're combining your medication and all this sort of stuff so i think yeah but there's but there's a caveat there too because uh i don't know if you remember but when fitbit came out everybody was going crazy with i even had a fitbit everybody was going crazy about fitbit because you can you can track all that stuff on your on your on your wrist and then and i think it actually rose up to like i think like a$9 billion or$10 billion valuation on the public markets.

28:29And what ended up happening was Apple ended up releasing their Apple Watch. And everyone's like, oh, a smartwatch is just going to kill this, like, health-centric fitness watch, which I ended up doing. And then Google bought them for, like,$2 billion, I think, like, six years later or something. That's why the whoop is so interesting. It's like, didn't we see this with Fitbit? But this is kind of, like, more connected. Yeah, there's more nuance there. But what's actually interesting is you're saying, like, oh, can't someone just come in and, like, They kind of displaced somebody else. Very recently, I think two weeks ago, Apple lost a lawsuit to Massimo because they effectively, according to the lawsuit, infringed on Massimo's IP for a pulse oximeter.

29:11And Massimo sued them saying, you can't use that. You didn't pay us. And then Apple's like, well, it's our own technology. Blah, blah, blah. They lost. so so many of these companies are are trying so hard to get you to buy their product with the intent of what value it can provide and then go on to to step number two which is then like how do we expand on that which is what they're already doing right like like like uh for the for wearables like you said whoop has labs uh lab companies function health is moving into supplement supplement tracking and at-home blood tests etc everybody knows they need to expand out which hymns is doing but just like in the reverse so i do i will put the mass mo things aside for saying because i i do remember that and i think they stopped they lost in 2023 i think and they stopped the shipments for a while and then i think this was the pill but let me go to the yeah it was yeah yeah i think the the future is unknowable and it's interesting to think about that but let's talk about let's assume you're right and they kind of win the future right let's talk about valuation here so right now as we're sitting here i'm just kind of glancing i I think HIMSS is about a 7.5 billion EV.

30:17You can correct me if I am slightly off or anything. And the stock is kind of$31 per share. About 7.5 billion EV. EV is a little bit higher now, but yeah. Okay, there are some converts and everything. It's because of the converts. Yeah, it's because of the converts, yeah. Completely okay. We can round to 8 billion, whatever you want. They have given out 20, 30 targets of at least$1.3 billion in EBITDA. That compares to, I think their 2026 targets are a little over$300 million of EBITDA. So you're talking on a 2026, the year we're in basis. You're talking approaching 30 times EBITDA. You're talking on a 2030 basis, 6X EBITDA.

31:01So how do you think about the valuation? And I'll just layer one more thing. And, you know, we were mentioning the competitors, Whoop and Oura Ring, which again, they do have unique data. They do have that wearable. they have that component to it. Whoop just raised at 10 billion. So when I'm looking, I'm saying, hey, the future Paul scene, HIMSS is already kind of at 8 billion right now. If Whoop raised at 10 billion, like, is there really that upside? And now maybe it's VC exponential upside, but that's kind of the other thing other than just the EBITDA number that was weighing on my valuation.

31:30So toss a lot there. I'll just step back and let you talk to all that. Yeah, I have never been a fan of private market valuations ever. That's why, like, when it comes to IP, that's why I love researching IPOs because most of the time I end up shorting them because it's just like, this is grossly overvalued. Like, there's no way this makes any sense. So when it comes to private market valuations, like I told you, when I heard that Whoop was raising at a$10 billion valuation, I was like, in what world is a watch worth this much, you know? As my wife reminds me, it's not a watch. It does not tell you the time.

32:00My wife lost the joke. That's very fair. It's very, I know it's one of their marketing points, but yeah, so I sit there and like, okay, that doesn't make any sense because, you know, you have a business right now with HIMSS, mind you, I am, you've seen this, I am hypercritical on HIMSS. I will, if they are wrong - Management is the third point. We will talk about that in a second. Yeah. Yeah. And so when it comes to valuation, right, I'm looking at like what the market is actually willing to pay. And so there's either, so someone is wrong in that equation. Either Whoop is being overvalued at$10 million, over a$10 million valuation, or HIMSS is, the market is pricing hims wrong at an$8 billion valuation.

32:40One of those two has to be wrong. And my opinion is that the Whoop valuation is wrong, so I don't use them. I think Aura did something similar too, and I'm like, okay, that doesn't make any sense either. So when it comes to the valuation, when management gave out long-term targets, 2030, 6.5 billion in revenue, at least$1.3 billion in EBITDA by then 2030, they gave that out in, I think May of last year, 2025. And I read that and I was like, what mythical numbers are these? And where is he getting them from? Because that doesn't seem realistic in the slightest. Mind you, this was before Zaba and this is before Eucalyptus.

33:18So there was no, there's really no international business. But then, you know, as time goes on, you're like, the only way he actually gets there is because of the international business, not because of the American market. It's because the American market tied with the international business. So now when you take a look at the lens of international and US, then I'm like, that's probably conservative, actually. That's probably a very conservative number. So when you're talking about paying like six times 20, 30 EBITDA multiple, that's still growing at like a mid-teens, high-teens clip, top line, then things start changing.

33:56It doesn't actually look too crazy anymore. Obviously, there's a lot of execution risk in there because you know the rules regulations compliance whether it's in the eu canada brazil australia they're all very very different so there's a lot of execution risk involved in there but uh valuation wise you have to either believe that he at least hits what he thinks he's going to hit which is still you know not uh like dumb cheap but at the same time if you believe that the thesis holds the the data play is right the retention improves ltv goes up globally then you You know, it's not it's not extreme in the slightest in our opinion.

34:32Right. Which is why, you know, like we decided to go long stock again this year. Let's go to the management. So you mentioned management. I mean, I think it'd be understatement to say you don't trust them. You know, there's a Bloomberg article from 2025 where you're quoted and your quote is says when you're disrupting health care, you have to push the boundaries a little bit. The emphasis is a little bit. as soon as you cross the line, you end up going to jail, talking kind of about some of the lines they cross. And in your report, you said, would I trust the CEO to walk my dog or plant, sit my cactus?

35:07No. So, you know, I think it's interesting, like you've got these, this growth outlook that management is providing. And you're, you're saying, you're basically saying, hey, I like everything about this company, except the visionary CEO who started it, founder CEO who started and everything. And my two pushbacks on that would be number one. I mean, just in my experience, if every time I had had a management team lied to me or like been proven wrong and I should have just sold the shares instantly. And I didn't like I'd always explain away. I'd be like, oh, and every time I've had that, like I've had my face worked off.

35:41That's just my personal experience. And then if I was applying that to him specifically, you know, when I look, I mentioned I'm just looking at their 2025 numbers, 317 million in adjusted EBITDA. Right. But it's pretty heavily adjusted. You know, one hundred thirty million of the adjusted EBITDA is stock comp. One hundred thirty five million is depreciation and amortization. And they add back investments of websites like they they do have a lot of investments into intangible assets. So that DNA number is like kind of a real number. They add back legal settlements. They add like it's a pretty adjusted number.

36:16So when I say, hey, we're modeling them on 1.3 billion, we're like almost double trusting management. We're double trusting. Hey, they're saying they're going to forex their EBITDA, 3X their EBITDA over the next four years or so. B, they're saying that heavily adjusted EBITDA, we're trusting them. And Paul's over here saying I wouldn't trust him to walk my dog or grow my cactus. But we're saying we're going to we're trusting their growth numbers. Does that make sense? Oh, yeah. Fair. because the thing is, like you said, most of the time, whenever we talk to management, I imagine you're the same way.

36:49My goal whenever I talk to management is how much are you bullshitting me right now? Because obviously their job is to promote the company, talk it up, et cetera, et cetera, obviously without lying. But not telling the whole truth might not necessarily be the same thing as lying, right? So there's like emphasis here and or de-emphasis there. So that's why I always talk to management. Mind you, I've actually never spoken to Andrew. Andrew, this will be fun for your listeners. When the company went public in 2021, I was very critical of the valuation in 2021 and to the point where Andrew ended up blocking me because I was so vocal about the valuation and then it dropped 90%.

37:29So I feel like I earned my stripes back then too. Anyway, but yes, no, I don't trust Andrew. And I don't trust Andrew because everything stemming from the compounded GLP-1 fiasco that happened last year. and I'm in my mind I'm saying this guy is very talented he is very bright he is very uh future forward and in his thinking the problem is I think is when a CEO is is is sitting on the top for so long that he thinks he can be untouched he can do whatever he wants and and nothing can touch him which is why my my my short report last year was titled titled the Teflon Don because nothing was sticking to this guy um uh because it wasn't and i'm sitting i'm like this guy i think he actually thinks he's like some type of god right now because no one's going after him and eventually that comes crashing down um so when i the reason why you know i made those comments is because yeah i don't i don't trust him personally but i do trust his business acumen when it is checked uh which he got his reality check in february of this year when he got sued when he got hit by the FDA, got hit by the FTC, I think the SEC one is still going on, and Novo Nordis sued him.

38:40I'm like, that was his reality check. And now he knows that you actually can't step out of line and not face consequences. So when it comes to our thesis, yes, I believe management can get it done, but management still needs to operate under the same rules, which is why I made that comment in Bloomberg that people go to jail when you don't. can I just like I don't I actually don't even know if this is pushback or not but a lot of what Andrew does and I'm not an expert on the company I don't know the guy he did start a donut shop which is near and dear to my heart have you have you tried the donuts I have not no maybe we'll if they go on gold belly maybe we'll get them shipped to New York and we'll try them at some point because I think you're out in Brooklyn right no I was out of Brooklyn but I actually moved but I go there every year now okay we still maybe we'll figure out a time to try some to figure it out.

39:27A lot of what you're saying, the Teflon Don, the reality check, you know, it kind of reminds me of Elon Musk. And again, I don't know if that's a bull point or a bear point, because I remember people after multiple, multiple things that happened with Elon, people were like, oh, he got his reality check, right? And Elon never had his reality check, but every stock has gone straight up. So when you say he got his reality check, he's going to be checked. I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing, because if he is Elon Musk, he's not going to be checked. but as you're saying elon the one place i guess he is the the brain neurowave or whatever but there is a little bit of a difference between hey my reality check is i'm selling cars and i'm like pushing the envelope on autonomous driving and if you start doing products and like one of the things with compounding is you know compounding shortages was because people need drugs but people like you you miss compound or something like people die you sell people infected drugs and stuff so i i don't even know if saying he got his reality check and i'm saying a lot of this reminds me of elon musk i don't know if it's a bullet point or a bear point well here's the thing i say he got a reality check because uh of what ended up happening not that he actually suffered any consequences from it um so uh so you you know them but you know hunter brooke um was very was very vocal about how he basically andrew got away with compounding and he paid no repercussions for it i agree that is true um however he knows that if so i called him icarus in 2024 i was like hey icarus is able to fly around he can fly around for as long as he could but you know when you get too close to the sun you know your wings burn up and you fall to the speed fall to the sea you die um so i called him icarus in 2024 i called him napoleon in february 2025 and i called him teflon dawn in october 2025 so when his reality check is that and this is a two this is a two point there's a two pointer here one is that he got a reality check by effectively understanding where his where he was able to push that that gray area as far as he could which was basically creating his own drug out of thin air uh before everyone was just like okay no that's it you can't the red line you can't do that um so now he actually knows what a red line is um uh so we'll see if he tries to maybe push that again or if he if he knows like just not to get too close to that um um anymore and then secondly is that um like i mentioned before like you you you have to most of this i'm not saying it's the wild west i mean some parts of the wild west but i think the chinese peptides are oh that's definitely the wild west yeah no for sure so now um you know absent absent peptides.

42:11Yeah, the repercussions are real, right? So he has to also answer to them too. If like people get sick, people die, which have been published before. But the thing is, life continues to go. Like you said, with Elon, his companies still keep going on. Life goes on. HIMSS will continue to go on. And my reality, my reality check was that I put too much emphasis on morality. and I thought that if you didn't do the right thing then regulators quote unquote police that I call them people who are supposed to be there for people would step in and right the wrong which is why all 2025 I'm like all of this shit that he's saying isn't even accurate I was pointing out every little detail and just a very quick analogy because I know you love reading I'm very late to this game David Einhorn's book fooling people, fooling some of the people all the time.

43:08He had five years before his short worked and it was down like 90%. However, in one line, they said the excuse that nothing was happening was like, oh, if my stock price is still high, then it can't be fraud or I'm not crooked. And I'm like, oh, my God, that was all of 2025. Like everyone's like, no, the stock price is at$60. You're wrong. I'm like, that's not how it works, dude. So my reality check is that I can't put faith and regulators to do the right thing. So, hey, if if they're basically sanctioning that this is the red line and not what the actual red line should be, then who am I? Who am I to tell them otherwise?

43:42It is so funny because everything you just said is like it reminds me of a lot of the Tesla bears over the year, you know, where they'd be like, he said we'd have robo taxes by 2018. or he said there'd be 20 million and going private for going private for 20 um you know uh but tesla is having a higher higher death rates when when when they get in car accidents because the doors don't open it's like you would think regulars should be all over that but the thing is regulars don't care enough to get all over that do you think it's because of this fda that then 100 100 100 100 uh let me go to you know you want to go on a weird tangent with me for two minutes We mentioned Chinese peptides a few times.

44:23So for those who don't know, if you go to Instagram and I have not ordered them, I haven't done peptides, but you can get, you know, people are obsessed with peptides and they're not really approved here. And you can go on and you can get from Chinese laboratories like any peptides you want. And, you know, there are some that are very popular with fitness influencers and stuff. You probably know it better than me. And if this gets right, I think it's going to get approved by the FDA pretty soon. and it's a big it's going to be a big bull case for him in my opinion because i think these guys are very well situated to take over the instagram marketing actually start compound so you can say anything on that that piece you want but i want it to go on a weird different tangent as well yeah yeah i know so i mean like i think like i forget who put it out but i think they're they're valuing the illicit market like just under two billion dollars right now like no no chance it's going to be so much bigger when it's regulated and i would be sure yeah it's only 2 billion right oh yeah so so elicit elicit is i think 2 billion but once it goes legit that means like multiples of that um which is fine like yeah as i said it's a net positive great like see again i've i've i've had my reality check of i can't be the morality police because number one i'm not and then number two i can't rely on the morality police to actually come in and do their job so my argument too was uh i tweeted about i tweeted about a thread a couple like a month or two ago and i was like everybody thinks i'm bearish peptides but actually not if glp ones proved anything it's that people will want to get any drug that will help them if it's cheaper or you know like whatever right it's why kind of like people still buy those like for lack of better words those rhino powder dick pills at gas stations because you know whatever do you do you want to so there's apparently a specialized insurance market for insuring those like you know the horny goat weeds and stuff that they sell up there because sometimes they accidentally put uh sometimes they accidentally put cardboard in them and sometimes they accidentally put other stuff that like okay so apparently there's like a specialized insurance market like they're so low quality who knows what's in there but speaking of low quality like the the the weird tangent i go on with chinese peptides so i'm like look i mean people are literally going on instagram and ordering from the the these chinese peptides these chinese left and there's no quality control and there's been some investigations and people order like i don't i don't know what the name of the drugs are right but like 10 milligrams of retrode and sometimes they'll be like oh yeah it's actually 10 milligrams but sometimes they'll be like oh when we thought we were drawing 10 it was 20 or 5 which is a disaster and sometimes they'll be like we thought it was 10 milligrams of retro and it was you know 20 milligrams of this other drug right so the the weird tangent is and it's made me been i've been thinking a lot about like ai and you know as ai and we have these ai agents spin up and price shop or everything and the world goes more and more frictionless you know there was the citrini thing that almost brought down the stock market where they're like hey instead of ordering off doordash you'll just tell your chat gpt to order pad thai and it'll compare 15 different bad thai places and find the cheapest service to deliver you when it cuts up doordash i you know i have been thinking about the world goes frictionless consumers are proving they just go to chinese labs and they say hey, give me$20 worth of the cheapest thing.

47:30And they don't even, they don't care about quality. They don't care about controls. I've been really worried about the world as it goes frictionless with AI. If people will just inject anything into their body, like, you know, I go and say, chat GPT, order me$5 of apples. And like, am I going to get rotten apples and just stuff in my body? I don't know, but it's the weird thing I've been thinking about. Regulators are super slow to catch up to anything. And consumers have proven that they don't care where something comes from as long as it's cheap and they get access to people who are buying GLP ones off of Groupon dude Groupon who does that it's so good and I hear it's cheap but it's just like it's one thing I don't the Groupon ones were they getting the branded drug or were they getting like some weird oh no they were getting some weird okay it was like a quote unquote GLP one it's just like I can't imagine I can imagine getting cheap on a lot of things and I'm I'm a pretty frugal guy in general i don't but something you're injecting your body just being like yeah i'm just gonna go and get it from like someone who is some random chinese company that's not getting fd and and that's that's what the issue is you and me are approach this with logic and rational um rational mindset a lot of people do not that is why they'll take the research for a peptides from a guy that they trust or a guy that they know right um and you know hope and pray that the guy that they know or the guy that they trust is actually getting it from another guy that they know or that they trust.

48:59But there's so many breaks in that system of trust me, bro. And you and you'll roll the dice because, you know, if I take BPC 157 and, you know, my muscles, you know, are recovering nicely, I'm going to keep doing it until again, something where I'm supposed to draw 10 milligrams is actually 20 milligrams or 50 milligrams. I get some weird twitch in my arm or my heart stops or something like that. And then you rush to the hospital and then you, you know have to deal with it then i mean some of the investigations with people who were like yeah i was taking and doing nicely and then i got a bad batch and like now i've got a tingling in my foot for the rest of my life here's the thing andrew there's there's a thing there's a thing to this we're talking about something that's not even uh uh legal yet right there's a problem which i told which i meant the jail comment is what happens when you're supposed to trust people who actually have a legal market and they still screw you over which i always i always bring up it's a poster child will happen were the companies of Dunn and Cerebral who had access to controlled substances.

49:55They were pushing ADHD medications and they were effectively telling their nurse practitioners, their providers, like, listen, when people come in, basically do the bare minimum and push these drugs on people, even if they didn't need them or whatever, because we're making so much money and we're, quote unquote, helping people that we're doing the public a service and just rolling in cash. And what ended up happening? They, you know, the founders got arrested, charged. And I think the most recent one got sent to like six years in prison. So there's an aspect of trusting people who you're supposed to trust.

50:30And then they break it and then breaking like their oath to protect you or whatever. So there's always a risk there, whether it's legal or not. This is why dentists and doctors, I mean, they've got such a sheen on them. And it is scary. Like the as one friend who's a dentist told me, like a dental license is a license to print money. You know, you tell somebody, Hey, I need to fill that cavity. And they don't really ask. They say, okay, yeah, let's fill the cavity. Let me use the Chinese peptides thing to just push into competition in one other angle. And we'll use it on the low end and then I'll go to the high end.

50:59On the low end, you know, peptides get legalized and that's a big bull case for HIMSS. But a lot of this peptides get legalized. Like HIMSS is somewhat regulated. Like again, we talked about the management team being willing to push boundaries. I do worry like, and this would apply to hims whoop whoever you want like i worry that you just because so much of it is going to be instagram marketing and acquiring the customers right i worry that if you are a bigger player with some something of a reputation you get out competed by a a smaller startup player like hundreds of smaller startup players instagram influence or whatever are going to work with people and they're just going to try to churn and burn right they're just going to say hey we do a buzzy instagram ad we get people watching we sell them and we don't care what the f we do right like we'll ship them freaking uh placebo sugar water right whatever it is and we're trying to turn and burn and that you know hymns did that to to beat a lot of the players who were like kind of playing by the rules when the compounding went away as you and i know and discussed like but if hymns is going to be this big player are they actually going to get out competed by smaller a hundred smaller startup by night players that say hey effort we'll sell them will push the boundary as far as humanly possible on peptides, whatever it is.

52:14And that kind of undercuts him's ability to acquire customers. So that's the low end competition I worry about. That's a very fair point. And my pushback on that is so when I worked at Rowe, yeah, I was I was working basically directly for the CEO at certain points. And one thing and I'll tell you a very quick story. So like, um, we were trying to see where we could go as a company. And my job was to figure out where that, where that, where, where that would be. One of them was actually ADHD medication. And I was like, listen, I looked at the numbers. We can make a lot of money with this. Um, mind you, I had just come from investment banking.

52:52So my whole job is how do I create value? My whole mindset is how do I create value? And I was like, we can make a lot of money with this. And without skipping a beat, you know, he tells me, he's like, we're not doing that. And I'm like, wait, what do you mean? Like, I'm like, I had, I have all the numbers, I have all the data. And he's like, because it opens up more doors to actually hurt people than help people. And he told me that as long as we do the right thing for patients, then we will win over the long term. The short term might get bumpy, but the long term we will still win. And I respected that immensely.

53:24I was like, oh, wow, this guy actually cares. So to your point about all these little brands popping up and shooting peptides, whether it's a placebo, real, fake, mix, whatever. maybe it's fentanyl in it who cares who cares but who knows um they will they might win in the short term and that might disrupt some some or add some volatility to you know if you're talking about hims hims stock price because as long as they're doing the right thing over the long term it will it will net out for them um because in the hopes that like regulators come in and then an unfortunate aspect of like oh if somebody if somebody dies with one of these companies then everybody gets sued and blah blah blah so it will create some short-term volatility for the people who are okay with breaking the rules and the laws in order to make some cash but those who are like you know what we should do the right thing because it's the right thing to do you know i i love that and generally i'm optimist but the the tough thing is in the long term like if you've got a lot of short-term players who are just who are kind of eating into your profitability and destroying it destroying your profitability i do hear you in the long term like hopefully the good players went out but the issue with the long term is hey if the short-term players eat it and you mentioned you remember like sometimes you've got the great thing and maybe the time's not right or maybe there's so much competition and so much competition is doing the wrong way your company isn't the one who actually survives and makes it there and it like for hims if let's say the next few years it's just a blood sport of low-cost players like hims never starts inflecting and maybe the low cost players in 2027, 2028 kind of get kicked off the market.

54:56But then, you know, it's two years later and maybe a new startup comes in and kind of attacks from new ways. So that's that's my one where I'll pause there if you've got anything. And then I have two more. I will I will say I will say maybe you agree with this is that then it can get a place on who's who's who's better capitalized, whose balance sheet is better, because if it's a race to the bottom on price, then arguably and I'm not saying this is going to happen. I'm speaking hypothetically here, is that if all these new startups are basically saying like, yeah, if price is the determining factor for these peptides once they come online, then a well capitalized business who is arguably a leader in the business can take their prices down in order to grab share and still have cross selling opportunity, which plays into the whole data, which plays into the additional conditions that they can treat, etc.

55:44that, et cetera, they can, they can play that short game. Mind you, it still hurt their profitability, but because they're capitalized well enough, they can endure that short-term pain for, I think a long-term, long-term return. Very Amazon thinking though, you know, the issue is like Amazon, there was a big infrastructure thing and here I'm, I'm worried it's going to be like people outsourcing to the Chinese labs and just running like Instagram things. But I want to go to two last questions. Yeah. First question. We are recording this. Gosh, what's the date? August 6th. HIMSS reports August 10th.

56:14And this podcast is generally not a what's your earnings, bro, what's your outlooks, bro. But we're going to try and post this the day of August 10th because they report after hours. It's kind of hard to talk about. You know, you can look at HIMSS volatility. HIMSS ball is 100 ball. This stock does move a lot on names, earnings. I hate to say something like if this releases August 10th, it looks stale. But how are you thinking about like kind of just the near term earnings on a name with this much volatility? Yeah, I mean, think about what's publicly been announced already. So they already given guide from Q1.

56:43But the thing is, they didn't incorporate eucalyptus. Eucalyptus is now closed as of June. So when you think about fiscal year 2026 guide, it will be updated. Even all else being equal, just for eucalyptus. So you're talking about a few hundred million dollars in revenue that they'll recognize in 2026. It's not profitable. So then assuming all is being equal, they'll negatively revise eucalyptus guide down to compensate for that lack of profitability over at eucalyptus. And then the game is, okay, how well has a full quarter of a Novo Nordisk partnership materialized into their financials? And then secondly, how well has the aforementioned labs business, testosterone business, menopause business scaled since they launched in September and October of last year?

57:32And I feel like a little bit of that has already been baked into guidance, but then who knows if there's upside risk there. So it'll be very interesting to see. But that's kind of like the easy takeaway is that guidance will be revised at least upwards for revenue because of eucalyptus acquisition and folding into the financials. And then negatively unadjusted EBITDA just because if they are indeed not profitable and nothing else has changed, then it arguably has to come down. So that's my very quick takeaway there. And then we'll see what happens. But long term, I'm still very okay with it. Perfect.

58:06And I have one last question I want to ask just on competitors. CVS, Walgreens, and then you can also their Walmart and Amazon into it a little bit, you know, but particularly CVS and Walgreens, just because they've got so many local stores, they've got so many patients who are already getting prescriptions there. I've been a little surprised like there's been no effort to get in here but as you think about CVS and Walgreens in the long term I mean do you think there's these companies are damn cheap I mean Walgreens got taken out at like kind of a melting ice cube valuation do you think there's any pivot there do you worry about them from a competition do you think they're a partner maybe but how do you think about them because if I was if I was in charge of Walgreens which I'm glad I'm not.

58:45But if I was in charge of a Walgreens or CVS, I would be thinking, hey, the peptide, maybe I don't want to actually compound peptides at my thing, but I've got a great customer acquisition source. Can I take that? Can I start doing exactly what you're saying with these? And maybe I partner with him, maybe I partner with a dozen companies, but can I kind of own the customer and have people do the back end and kind of win the market that way? So have you even thought about them or are they just such dinosaurs? They don't even matter here. I would say they don't matter because I think pharmacies and specialty pharmacies, whether it's like a pharmacy within a Kroger, pharmacy within a Costco, Walmart, then the pure place pharmacies like CVS, Walgreens, Dwayne Reed, et cetera.

59:25I think they're all fighting each other in their own respective markets, which is mainly insurance covered medications. That's where they're fighting each other. And while yes, there is some overlap that's like GLP-1s, whether it's insurance covered or through cash pay, there's some overlap there. But I think because HIMSS is focusing all its efforts on cash pay, there's actually no insurance involved on the HIMSS model, that for now, they're okay that they're not really bumping heads at the moment. Could they work in the future, whether it's some type of, like, if you said, acquisition tool or referral or referral system or whatever.

1:00:07Yeah, it totally can happen. But I think at this moment, I don't think it's really a threat because I think each company, HIMSS and all the pharmacies are fighting their own battles and they're on their own turf that they're not even thinking about each other at the moment. I suspect there's also a little bit of like kind of the old, not necessarily innovators dilemma, but like a Walmart, for example. I think Walmart says, hey, we're a trillion dollar company. if there's any gray line or anything when it comes to compounding everything we just don't want to touch it you know and i think walgers and cbs that are their ice cubes they should think about something else but like i just don't think a walmart wants to get involved with personalized testing and maybe they that extends to hey we don't even want the legal liability of being a partner with someone on this well that's it that's in prescription side they even tried doing like their own telehealth offerings right and had to dial them back because they just couldn't they couldn't get it to work so that's just that's just the embassy right they launched a shitty product Yeah, well, that too.

1:00:57But the thing is, they have look at their balance sheets. If they really wanted to figure it out, they have the money to do it. Right. Amazon is trying to do it. And man, they have the lead, lead money to try to make it an actual threat. And I think there's going to be more of that before it remotely gets better for them. Paul, this has been a ton of fun. I'm going to include a link for those of you who are interested. If you're listening to August 10th and you're getting excited for this call or if you're listening, post it because I think a lot of this is maybe not timeless because in 2035, I think this is.

1:01:25But if you're listening to this, I think a lot of this will at least hold up for the next six months to 18 months. I'll include a link to Paul's write-up in the show notes for those who want to get ready for the earnings call and everything with that. But Paul, this has been awesome. Thanks so much for coming on. I really enjoyed this conversation, and we will chat soon. Always enjoy talking to you, Andrew. Thanks for having me. A quick disclaimer. Nothing on this podcast should be considered investment advice. Guests or the hosts may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned during this podcast.

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