ICYMI: Missouri Set To Sign A New Congressional Map Into Law

0:07You're listening to the 1A Podcast. I'm Jen White, and this is In Case You Missed It, where we bring you some of the week's most important conversations you might have missed. Various states in the U.S. are locked in a fight over redistricting. It's all centered on which party will keep the House next year. Republicans have a slim majority, 219 seats, to the Democrats' 213. It started this summer when President Trump asked Republicans in Texas to redraw the state's congressional maps early. The goal, he said, was to improve Republican's shot at winning five more seats in the House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections.

0:44After a standoff with Democrats in the state legislature, Republicans passed a map that did just that. Democrats in California, led by Governor Gavin Newsom, responded with their own map. It's a redraw aimed at giving Democrats five more seats in the House. Newsom signed that bill into law in late August, saying it would neutralize what happened in Texas. Unlike in Texas, California's map goes to the voters this November for approval. It would last through the 2030 elections. But the redistricting fights don't end there. Another GOP effort is nearing the finish line in Missouri. There, Republicans have pushed a new map that will set them up to win seven GOP seats instead of six.

1:23Democrats currently hold two House seats in Missouri, and once again, President Trump has intervened to push for the map change. Missouri Senate Republicans passed the redistricting bill on Friday despite Democratic opposition and have sent it to Republican Governor Mike Kehoe for his signature. The governor has also pushed for the redistricting plan. So what does this mean for the state, the Democrats, and the midterms? Jason Rosenbaum joins us from St. Louis, Missouri after the break. He's a political correspondent for St. Louis Public Radio. We discuss all the latest and more. Stay with us.

1:59Jason, welcome back to the program. Thank you so much for having me. So Republicans in the state legislature there designed the new map to position Republicans to win a 7-1 edge in seats compared to the current 6-2 makeup of Missouri's delegation. What areas of the state would change significantly with this new map? Well, to be ultra-specific, the entire map would change because if you change one district, you also have to change districts in the St. Louis area. But to hone in on your question a little bit more, the biggest change comes in the Kansas City area, where Democratic Congressman Emanuel Cleaver represents most of Kansas City now.

2:39This new map would split Kansas City effectively into three districts and convert Cleaver's fifth district into a GOP-leaning seat by connecting portions of Kansas City with rural counties. And it's a big reversal from three years ago because Republicans specifically declined to pursue this route. President Trump's intervention on this matter really turned the tide to pursue this very unusual mid-decade redistricting gambit. So this redistricting plan tries to position Republicans to win an additional seat during the 2026 midterm elections. But is that guaranteed? No, it's not guaranteed for several reasons.

3:28First, if the map goes into effect and it's a Democratic wave election, even Republicans have told me it is still possible under this new map for Cleaver to win reelection, especially if Republicans nominate a terrible candidate who really doesn't fit the district well. The other possibility is the map may get struck down in court. There are already two lawsuits that were filed immediately after the map was passed, and there was actually a lawsuit that was filed by the Missouri NAACP before the special session. And it is not out of the question that the Missouri Supreme Court may end up saying that this wasn't allowed, that mid-decade redistricting isn't authorized under the Constitution.

4:15The third option is because there weren't enough votes to pass this measure in the House to make this bill with the new map go into effect right away, it's subject to a referendum. And that means that if redistricting opponents gather enough signatures within a three-month time period, it goes to voters for approval. It cannot go into effect until there's a successful statewide vote. And while it is hypothetically possible that vote could happen before the 2026 election cycle, it's very unlikely. And what would end up happening is the map, if it's approved, wouldn't go into effect until 2028. And the way this map has been drawn, are there any Republican seats that have been made more vulnerable?

5:02Yes, there are two seats that surround the 5th District. One is the 4th District that's held by Congressman Mark Alford. The other is the 6th District, which is held by Congressman Sam Graves. There's still fairly Republican-leaning seats after the new map, if it goes into effect. But the reason why Republicans did not pursue this in 2022 was because in a Democratic wave election, similar to what happened in 2006 or 2008, it is possible that those two seats could become very, very competitive. And I have heard from Democratic sources that groups like the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee are already trying to recruit big name, well-known candidates against Alford and Graves as a means of basically running sort of a Democratic ticket in 2026 that will force Republicans to spend a lot of money not only to win Cleaver's seat, but to retain Alford and Graves' seat.

6:12We'll have to see if next year is a Democratic wave election, but if it is, that is an example of this map completely backfiring. Well, let's hear from Representative Emanuel Cleaver, again, the Democrat who currently represents most of Kansas City in Congress, speaking about the new map at a committee hearing in the Missouri Senate. Decades and decades will be damaged by what goes on here. Chaos has found us. It has finally found us. We're going to fight each other in the greatest nation that God allowed to exist when we don't have to do this. Here's Republican state senator and president pro tem of the Missouri Senate, Cindy O 'Loughlin.

6:52So when the people in Missouri say, do we want to be sure we send as many Republicans to Congress as we can so that President Trump can finish out his four years in a strong fashion? The answer to that is yes. Give us some insight. How involved is President Trump and Missouri Republicans' efforts to pass a new map? He was very involved. In fact, in the final hours of this special session, Trump called into a meeting of the Republican caucus to prod them along to pass the map that would target Cleaver. I don't think they really needed much prodding. Like, they were clearly going to pass this map.

7:35Everybody kind of knew that it was a foregone conclusion when Kehoe called the special session. But Republicans have been pretty open that they want to create an environment in Missouri that sends enough Republicans to prevent the Democrats from retaking the House next year. You heard from Senator Cindy O 'Loughlin in that clip. They have not really hid their motivations at all about why they're doing this. And I think that the stakes are very high. If Trump doesn't have a Republican House, then the Democratic House could launch into embarrassing investigations into his administration and basically block any elements of his agenda.

8:22and given the fact that the margin is so small in the House, am I saying that it could be a one-seat majority? I don't think that's likely, but it's only like a three-seat majority now, which is why they see targeting Cleaver as so essential in breaking a lot of legislative norms and breaking the precedent of redistricting in the middle of the decade, which has not happened in recent Missouri political history. Well, let's hear from Ashley Oni. She's a Democratic state representative and the Missouri House's minority floor leader. I need you all to realize that the White House is not the only audience today.

9:02Missouri is watching, and I hope the folks that sent you here are watching, because the last time I checked, Republicans claimed to be the party of small government and local control, yet here you are, taking your marching orders from the federal government. Republicans claim to be the party of patriotism and individualism, but you are blindly doing the bidding of a wannabe dictator who needs to cheat to win. An activist group called People Not Politicians announced on Friday they would collect signatures to put the new map to a statewide vote. This is the referendum you referred to earlier. How else are Missouri voters responding to this move?

9:35Well, on Wednesday last week, there were thousands of people that converged on the Missouri Capitol to express their extreme disdain for this mid-decade redistricting push. And admittingly, rallies don't always equal electoral outcomes. Like there were a lot of major rallies in 2024 and Republicans still won everything in Missouri. But there has been what I believe is an organic revulsion against this mid-decade redistricting push that I have not seen since it was announced in 2024 that they were going to try, by they I mean abortion rights activists, trying to enact a constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights.

10:28And what I mean by that is I have just seen dozens upon dozens of non-politically aligned people asking, where can I sign to overturn this map? What can I do to combat this? It is very possible that by trying to pursue this effort to oust Cleaver, that Missouri Republicans may have woken up a somewhat dormant electorate that is ready to mobilize and try and put this up for a vote and possibly defeat it at the polls. Similarly to how abortion rights activists successfully repealed one of the strictest abortion bans in the country last year. Well, lots more to watch in the months to come. That's Jason Rosenbaum.

11:13He's a political correspondent for St. Louis Public Radio. Jason, thanks for walking us through this. Thank you for having me. This program comes to you from WAMU, part of American University in Washington, distributed by NPR. I'm Jen White. Thanks for listening, and let's talk more soon. This is 1A.

11:41Thank you.