'If You Can Keep It': The Results Of The 2025 Election

0:28You're listening to the 1A Podcast. we are in with regard to air travel, to the fact that our staffs have been working without pay for a full 40 days now. All of us, Republicans and Democrats, who support this bill know that the time to act is now. Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York voted no, along with the majority of his party. I must vote no. This health care crisis is so severe, so urgent, so devastating for families back home that I cannot in good faith support this CR. But many Democrats are unhappy with Schumer and his inability to rally all members of his party.

1:04Those unhappy with the deal include some of the biggest winners from last week's election. Newly elected New York Mayor Zoran Mandani and California Governor Gavin Newsom, who called the vote, quote, a betrayal of working Americans on social media last night. Today, we break down some of the results of last week's election and why they matter as part of If You Can Keep It, our weekly series on the state of democracy. But first, what happened last night? And what does it say about Democrats that a small group of senators would fold on the shutdown just days after their party won big across the country?

1:37We get into that after the break. Stay with us.

1:45Let's get right into the latest news with Eva McKend, national politics correspondent at CNN. Eva, welcome back. Good to be with you. Now, Eva, this agreement still needs to be debated and passed by the Senate and House before it's signed by President Trump. Last night's procedural vote in the Senate allows the agreement, though, to move forward. So what's in this agreement and what's not? So it did become clear last night on the Hill when the SUVs started rolling up to the side of the Capitol that something was in the works here. And essentially, Democrats, eight of them, helped advance this deal to reopen the government in exchange for a future vote on extending enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies.

2:25That is a far cry from a policy victory. They essentially agreed to this after this historic shutdown only for a vote and not much else. It seems like there might be some guarantees here that the federal workers that were fired during the shutdown or threatened to be fired, that they will get their jobs back and that everyone will be paid that has been on furlough. But it really is not much given the gravity of the situation. And that's why there is so much internal disagreement among Democrats right now. And it's important to note that this is not a long term agreement. It only goes until the end of January.

3:03That is correct. We could be in this very same position in just a few weeks all over again. So there were eight Democratic senators who broke with their party's position to get the SUVs up to the side of the Capitol last night, as you mentioned. Senator Jeans Shaheen from New Hampshire, Maggie Hassan, Angus King of Maine, Tim Kaine of Virginia, who we'll talk about, John Fetterman of Pennsylvania and a couple of others that we'll mention. Democrats, as you said, said this whole time that they were fighting for an extension of subsidies for Affordable Care Act premiums. That's not in this agreement.

3:40So this small group of eight senators, why did they pull the rug out from under the rest of their party? We just heard Chuck Schumer said he has to vote no. Well, many of them said that they just did not see the utility in continuing to fight this fight, that they did not see the administration coming around to their theory of the case. But some senators have always been in this position. I spoke to Senator John Fetterman last night, and he said he agrees that the subsidies should be extended, but he never believed in the mechanism of a shutdown to achieve this policy goal. I think that another component of this is that some of the people hurting the most are actually right under the senators' noses.

4:25I overheard Senate staff talking to each other last night, waiting for their senators to come out of the chamber, lamenting how they didn't have any money for food. And these are the people working for the members empowered to vote. And so I think that ultimately that political pressure just got to be too much. You have, of course, Democrats that said, listen, states were able to fill in the gap in terms of SNAP. The political pressure on the White House was so tremendous that they were going to have to continue these programs that they were threatening not to fund. And many, many Democrats felt that they were very much winning this political argument.

5:03And if they held out just a little bit longer, they would have been successful. Well, we're hearing from you. Jason emails all of the eight Dems who voted yes should step down and allow representatives who actually care to serve. A promise for a vote on health care is merely a promise for more airtime in December. I am beyond furious. But Michael emails Democrats should not try to win this fight, keeping the government shut while people go hungry. If they stay the course with an indefinite shutdown, they will be blamed for it as much as the Republicans win the fight later at the ballot box. Now, Eva, we'll talk more about what this means for the midterms.

5:37But how do those comments align with what you're hearing from the rest of the Democratic Party and from the public at large? I think it speaks to an internal frustration that there was no easy off ramp to this. But I think in the closing days, you did get a sense that it was coming, that there were some within the party that just felt like this was untenable. And I think this is the perennial question, though, right? How much do Democrats want to fight? There are some that say the election results were sort of an endorsement of the strategy that Democrats have taken in resisting and fighting back.

6:16But obviously not everyone feels that way. Well, we'll come back to this conversation about the shutdown vote and its implications in a bit. But now let's dive into some of the biggest local races from last week and what they tell us about the issues that matter most to you and what Democrats and Republicans can take away from this year's results. Joining us in studio to talk about Virginia's election is Margaret Barthel. She's WAMU's Northern Virginia reporter. Margaret, welcome back. Hi, thanks for having me. And joining us to talk about New Jersey's election is Kenneth Burns. He covers the state for WHYY.

6:47Kenneth, great to have you. Hi, Jen. So, Margaret, let's start with the shutdown deal and Virginia. The deal split Virginia's two senators. Tim Kaine voted to abandon the shutdown. Mark Warner voted against the deal. Why the split? I think we're going to find that out. There's a couple of things that I would say. One, just to kind of put this in the context of last week's elections, you know, Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger in Virginia did use part of her victory speech to call for Congress to figure out how to end this thing. And so I think that's worth sort of throwing into the pot there that, you know, she is Democrats one big in Virginia.

7:27Now we have this split among the two senators from the state. Cain emphasized that the deal guarantees a vote to extend the ACA tax credits, of course, and protects federal workers. That's a big deal in Virginia, you know, because of the large federal workforce that we have in the Commonwealth. Also worth noting that he emphasized that the deal will guarantee federal workers on furlough back pay. That is a law that he passed himself and that he's happy to talk to you about in 2019. So it's interesting that, you know, he felt that it was necessary to include that in, you know, this plan. And, you know, Warner, for his part, said this still leaves millions of Americans wondering how they're going to pay for their health care and said he couldn't support it for that reason.

8:21It is very unusual for the two of them to break ranks. They usually are pretty much united in, you know, policy questions like this. And second, maybe worth mentioning that Warner is up for reelection next year. Obviously, this is speculation, but I wonder how that played into his decision to, you know, to continue holding out for something more. Meanwhile, not far away in New Jersey, Democrats also won big last week. They scored a supermajority in New Jersey's General Assembly, and every single county in Virginia shifted blue on Tuesday. The Democratic nominee for governor, Congresswoman Mikey Sherrill, she won the governor's race there.

9:03She spoke to ABC7 in New York about what the race means for Democrats there. I moved every single county of all 21 counties to the left. That is a shot across the bow. That is a warning sign for Republicans. They need to start actually taking governing seriously and serving the people of this country and certainly of New Jersey. Kenneth, you wouldn't know it from what Mikey Sherrill is saying to look at Washington and watch Democrats, a small group of Democrats, fold on the shutdown. But tie these things together with us. Mikey Sherrill beat Jack Cittarelli in the governor's race. How much of this race was about Donald Trump and his popularity or lack thereof?

9:47I would say based on the results, a huge part of it is based on Donald Trump. And to point out something, a lot of the polls saw this as a much tighter race, maybe a single digit victory, but two things that I pointed out late last week. One, we didn't have a President Trump acting in real time in a state where he's underwater. Four years ago, Jack Chitarelli brought the contest a lot closer than anybody expected, but President Trump was out of office. But this time around, Trump was the X factor in this case. Now, Margaret, looking at last week's election results, every county in Virginia shifted towards Democrats, just like in New Jersey.

10:31Now, you spoke with voters leading up to the election. What issues did they tell you were driving them to the polls? Yeah. I mean, you definitely heard about cost of living, which, of course, you know, I think affordability has sort of become the buzzword of last week's elections in many ways. But in Virginia, you know, federal workforce concerns partially the shutdown, but I would say more so kind of doge and federal firings overall were a big theme. A lot of people who, you know, really, you know, their livelihoods are tied to what happens in the federal government through, you know, whether directly or indirectly.

11:08And, you know, so that was really important to them. You know, I and I would say that this was almost a more emotional election for a lot of Virginia voters than, you know, I had ever seen. And, you know, I had a woman break down on me, you know, when just having just cast her vote and I just asked her why she voted. And she just, you know, there was just, you know, her husband was on furlough. Her, sorry, her husband was working without pay, actually, was a federal employee. And, you know, she had concerns about education and all kinds of things. So, you know, I think that there, you know, I think that there's never one thing that, you know, motivates people's votes.

11:49certainly resistance to Trump was part of it. And certainly, I think, you know, affordability and concerns about the cost of living were part of it. Kenneth, what about in New Jersey? Affordability is a buzzword there, too. It kind of is everywhere, even if it doesn't describe the full picture of the election. But I look at a place like Passaic County, you know, just across the river from New York City, where Donald Trump won the county by three points in 2024. That county is over 42 % Latino, according to the census in 2020. And he was the first Republican candidate to win there since 92. But last week, Mikey Sherrill, the new governor-elect who we mentioned, she won the county by 15 points and overall led with Latinos by 30 points statewide.

12:37So there's some big things going on in New Jersey. Absolutely. Affordability, same as Virginia, is an important factor in New Jersey. But specific to Passaic County and how the Latino vote flipped from red just last year to blue this year, those gains that Trump was able to obtain in Passaic County was wiped out in a year. So in addition to affordability, you also had issues with federal immigration agents. There were concerns that they were just randomly picking people off the street. And also specific to North Jersey, the issues with the Gateway Tunnel. This is the new tunnel that will run between New Jersey and Manhattan.

13:22And President Trump announced on Twitter or X that funding was going to be withheld. Well, that's a big deal if you're in North Jersey and you commute to Manhattan every day. $18 billion, that project. $18 billion. So those three issues, especially in North Jersey, was a concern. South Jersey, definitely affordability. It's not as prosperous as North Jersey, to say the least. You have some of the poorest counties in the state. And just look at the map now, three counties that went red for Chittarelli four years ago, they went blue for Mikey Sherrill. Gloucester, Cumberland, and Atlanta County.

14:02Margaret, I'm curious what questions you have as a reporter covering Northern Virginia. As now that we have the election results, we know who's going to be running this state in the coming year. What are your outstanding questions? Yeah, I mean, I think if I can be forgiven quoting Lin-Manuel Miranda, winning is easy, but governing is harder. And, you know, look, there are a lot of things that will be on Abigail Spanberger's plate, on the General Assembly's plate where, you know, Democrats also want a supermajority. You know, they will be, you know, responsible for navigating, you know, the state budget through a stagnant economy, through, you know, cuts to Medicaid funding over the next several years, you know, SNAP, all kinds of different issues that I think will, you know, may sort of take away or at least, you know, kind of preclude some of the things that they want to do around affordability, right?

15:03Like, you know, if you have people who are hungry and people who don't have health insurance, it's, you know, it's hard to kind of ignore that and, you know, focus on prescription drug affordability. Of course, you can do things, you know, multiple things at once, but, you know, money is going to be tight. And so I think it's really sort of how do you, you know, having won on this affordability message and pushing back against the Trump administration, what does that actually look like in practice? You know, what's possible here? And Kenneth, what about for you, especially as you weigh out the, I would assume the high from Tuesday's win from Democrats, but also now this very public fight among Democrats at the national level?

15:46Well, what I'm looking for is specifically to New Jersey, how is Governor-elect Sherrill going to govern. A lot of the criticism against her was about the broad strokes and the generalities of her campaign, but now she has to get down to specifics. In relation to Washington, she, like a number of Democrats, were not happy that the eight senators crossed over to help the Republicans. She called the deal malpractice in regards to that. So it'll be interesting, especially as the midterms come. I don't expect a whole lot of fireworks except for maybe who will succeed her in Congress. Let's turn now to California.

16:25After months of campaigning, Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom's Proposition 50 ballot initiative passed. Prop 50 will temporarily overturn the requirement that California draw its congressional districts through independent commission. Joining us is Jeannie Kwong. She's a reporter at CalMatters. It's a nonprofit newsroom covering California politics. Jeannie, welcome to the program. Hi, thanks for having me on. Now, the Prop 50 effort got support from a lot of high-profile Democrats, including former President Barack Obama. Gavin Newsom, the governor, spoke to CNN's Jake Tapper about his victory on Sunday.

16:58And I think Donald Trump did not expect what California's did. He thought we would just try to win an argument by writing an op-ed. Maybe express disdain and concern about the country. I don't expect that. The Democratic Party of... Yeah, of old. And I think that's the bottom line. And I think this moment, what happened on Tuesday, represents a new moment. Jeannie, we've been talking about affordability and other issues in other states. California wasn't about those things. This was partisanship. This was gerrymandering. This was Texas is getting votes for Republicans. So let's get some votes for Democrats.

17:33What did you see, though, under the surface with this big win 60-40 for Prop 50 and how it relates to the national scene? Yeah, I think you're absolutely right that this was entirely an election about politics. There was very little policy involved. But I will note that a lot of the messaging by the Yes on 50 campaign by the Democrats was policy issues. You know, they tried to tie all of this to sticking it to Donald Trump. So they ran numerous ads kind of highlighting, you know, Alex Padilla, the senator, getting, you know, tackled to the ground by Homeland Security in Los Angeles over the summer.

18:18They talked to voters about losing their potential health care benefits, about the effect of tariffs on the economy, about the aggressive immigration raids that the Trump administration has unleashed upon California cities. I think what's going on is that it was like a purely political maneuver, and yet they were basically able to harness just widespread discontent about the Trump administration and sort of say that this was a way to counteract all of that. Obviously, whether or not that is true or can be done by gaining potentially five blue seats in Congress, we'll have to see. We got this question from Marion who says the GOP in California is suing to overturn Proposition 50.

19:07If they succeed in overturning it, does that indicate that Texas' redistricting measure could likewise be invalidated? Now, California Republicans filed a lawsuit in a federal court in Fresno just hours after Prop 50 passed. And they argue it violates the 14th and 15th Amendments by creating a racial bias. Jeannie, what's the status of that lawsuit? Yeah, we'll watch that lawsuit wind its way through. I will say that they had tried to sue before this went to the ballot as well, and that was quickly thrown out by the California courts. So, you know, I think no one else here in the state is really kind of waiting to see the outcome of that lawsuit.

19:48You know, all the campaigns from either side, you know, whether it's the Republicans that are now going to have to fight really hard for reelection in those targeted districts, whether it's Democrats that are, you know, chomping at the bit to come get in on these races now that they have a chance in some of these previously red districts. You know, everybody is just moving forward as if it hadn't happened. Well, Jeannie, we heard the governor, Gavin Newsom, say just a minute ago that Republicans expected Dems to just write like a strongly worded op ed. And that's as far as they would go. He was rewarded for not writing a strongly worded op-ed, for sort of taking the fight to Donald Trump.

20:27How is he distinguishing himself from what we just saw in Washington, a group of Democrats at least, who wanted to fold in a fight that they appeared to be winning? Yeah, I mean, Gavin Newsom has taken an interesting turn this year. He started off the year, actually, similarly trying to sort of reconcile himself with the president. You know, he started this podcast earlier this year where he had on a bunch of right wing activists and, you know, including Charlie Kirk and was just sort of mulling over why the party had suffered such bruising losses last year. And a lot of people saw that as him, like, you know, maybe making his own rightward shift.

21:08And he angered a lot of Democrats in the process. But, you know, the lack of progress, you know, actually having fire aid get delivered to Los Angeles from the federal government, you know, the deployment of the National Guard to Los Angeles over the summer, all of that just sort of fueled this, you know, again, a hard turn from him where now he's really bringing the fight back. And I think at the moment nationally, like he really notched himself a victory with this proposition. He really sort of got to say like, you know, I actually really delivered some gains for the party here nationally. And so I think that's, you know, something that he's really riding high off that.

21:51You know, it's no secret that he is considering a run for president. And I think that this all helps that. I don't know. I'm very interested in seeing how long it lasts because, of course, governing a state like California, it does come with a lot of baggage and a lot of criticism from, you know, the cost of living and a lot of other issues here in the state. And so I'm kind of curious how long this victory propels him forward as a potential leader for the National Democrats. That's Jeannie Kwong, reporter at CalMatters. Also, Margaret Barthel, Northern Virginia reporter at WAMU. And Kenneth Burns, he covers New Jersey for WHYY.

22:29Thanks to you all. More about last week's election and what the results tell us about the issues most important to voters right after this.

22:41Let's get back to the conversation with Eva McKend, national politics correspondent at CNN. And let's bring a new voice into the discussion. Brian Boitler is the author of the Off Message newsletter. It focuses on political analysis from the left. Brian, welcome back. Great to be back with you. And we're hearing from you. Stephen emails the lessons learned this week are that the people disapprove of President Trump and that the Democrats in the Senate are good at throwing away all that momentum and energy. So, Brian, what through lines do you see in the results from some of the biggest contests across the country last week?

23:14I think the through line is that there are no through lines, right? The Democrats have a lit on the explanation that affordability is the reason that they won these elections. But as you suggested earlier in your conversation, you find that voters in California turned out in huge numbers for a vote on a single measure that had nothing to do with affordability. You don't find that the swings, at least to my eye, correlate with wealth or with where prices are highest, that the biggest swings seem to come from places with large Latino populations, suggesting that a big driver of the swing was immigration, not affordability.

23:51So people are upset about Donald Trump's governance for a lot of reasons. And I think that when pollsters or survey takers ask for the reasons, people need to park their anger somewhere. And some of them say affordability, but it's unclear if they're personally financially stressed. It's unclear if they're upset that Donald Trump is not following through on his promise to make things cheaper or that he signed a bill to cut rich people's taxes. He's building a ballroom for himself. Meanwhile, tariffs are making things more expensive and that this evinces hypocrisy or that he lied in order to get himself elected.

24:28So I think that a better lesson for Democrats in Congress to take is that there is widespread anger about a lot of different things and to fight him on all of those fronts, not just affordability. Eva, your thoughts? Well, I think that Democrats are in a tough place because I think it's apt to say there is an internal civil war right now. There's a good faction of the party that is absolutely on board with that theory of the case. But there is another faction that said this shutdown went on too long, that ultimately we made our point that now, you know, the average American was not talking about extending subsidies for health care.

25:09But now they have crystallized that in all of our minds. So as people get this sticker shock and the cost of health care goes up, Democrats are confident that most Americans will point to Republicans because they now understand the issue. So I think that what continues to be a live conversation in the Democratic Party is how to wage this fight. Let's take a moment for this message we got from one of you. I think we're overemphasizing economic issues. I think people are really upset and frightened by the creeping fascism we are seeing. ICE violating human rights and due process in the streets all day long, every day, grabbing kids, grabbing, you know, beating up grandparents.

25:54That's what's really fueling the anti-Trump vote. Brian Boitler, you have spoken and written on this issue. Democrats find it very easy to talk about affordability. And when affordability is certainly an issue in an election. It seems like they latch onto that. It becomes kind of a confirmation bias. And Amy, who just called in, is sort of giving voice to that. She says there's a lot else going on here under the surface. You've spoken to that a little bit. How do you think that's playing here? I think it sort of remains to be seen. If you wind the clock back to 2017, Democrats did something similar.