'If You Can Keep It': What The Democrats’ Recent Wins Mean For The Midterms

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0:41Democrats are on a hot streak. They've not only spurred massive turnout for primary, special elections, and state and local races, but voter data shows they're also gaining support among Republicans and independent voters. That trend continued last week in Wisconsin. in the Supreme Court election, which technically is nonpartisan. Liberal Judge Chris Taylor, the Democratic-backed candidate, won by nearly 20 points statewide in Wisconsin. That's nearly double the margin of victory for another liberal candidate in a judge race in 2025. And in Georgia's reddest district, even a Republican win turned out somehow to be a success for Democrats.

1:24Despite losing to Republican former prosecutor Clay Fuller in the race for former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene's open seat in Georgia, Democrat Sean Harris overperformed slashing President Trump's 2024 margin of victory in the district by two thirds. The reason why I say we had a win tonight is because the Republican Party had to spend almost$2 million in a smear campaign to get this win. They should never have to spend money on a ruby red district. Some Republicans predictably are worried about what these wins mean for the midterms, for holding on to the House and maybe even the Senate.

2:08As a shrinking job market, high inflation and costly war with Iran dragged down the economy, Democrats are seizing the moment to capture voters. But here's a question. Do voters actually like Democrats? I'm Todd Zwillick. You're listening to the 1A podcast for the latest installment of our weekly politics series. If you can keep it, we're going to go deeper on the Democrats' recent successes. What are Democrats doing to keep momentum going into the midterms? And how are voters responding to a Republican Party struggling to deliver on its promises to lower the cost of living? And most importantly, what are the stakes of this midterm election for you, voters, for affordability, and especially for our democracy?

2:53We'll be back with the answers to these questions and a lot more after this short break. Stay with us.

3:28episode and subscribe at schwab.com slash oninvesting or wherever you get your podcasts. This message comes from NPR sponsor Carvana. Your time is worth more than a waiting game. Carvana gives you a transparent offer for your car in minutes and picks it up from your door. Sell your car today at carvana.com. Pickup fees may apply. On the latest episode of Newsmakers, Jamie Dimon predicts AI could give us a three-day work week. If you look at the history of developed nations, we went from working six and a half days a week to five days a week, 12 hours a day, eight hours a day. I do think there's a good chance to be three and a half days a week and many years of living wonderful lives.

4:09Jamie Dimon on Newsmakers, our new podcast with NPR's biggest interviews. Welcome back to the 1A podcast and our weekly series on the state of democracy, if you can keep it. Let's begin our conversation by meeting our guests. Joining us from Atlanta, Georgia, Stephen Fowler. He's a political reporter with NPR's Washington Desk. Stephen, welcome back to the show. Thanks for having me. Here in studio, Rena Shaw, frequent guest of the show, political strategist, former Republican political advisor. Rena, welcome back. Good to be with you. Great to have you. Jared Leopold is also here. He's a Democratic Communications Consultant, former Communications Director for the Democratic Governors Association.

4:49Jared, welcome to the show. Great to be here, Todd. Stephen Fowler, NPR, you're in Georgia. Give us a sense of what Sean Harris's loss on Tuesday, we just heard from him a minute ago, a much smaller margin than Democrats expected in Marjorie Taylor Greene's ruby red district. What does this all mean for the state of Georgia politics right now looking forward toward the midterms? There are a lot of people looking forward a little bit more on the edge of their seats for November here in Georgia, in part because of the U.S. Senate race where John Ossoff is on paper the most vulnerable Democratic senator.

5:27But Georgia has an open governor's race. Governor Brian Kemp has been popular. He is term limited, and the race to replace him on both sides of the aisle are wide open right now. Georgia is also a state where there are runoffs if no candidate clears 50 percent in a primary. So it is fully election season here. and the type of mobilization in the special election runoff to replace Marjorie Taylor Green, the margins, some of the, you know, even precinct level details of who showed up and who didn't and who they voted for. A lot of people that I've talked to in the last week are, I wouldn't necessarily say sweating.

6:07It's not hot enough here in Georgia yet, but there is a lot that people are reading into about that result and what it might mean for these races up for grabs. Jared Leopold, what do you think? Stephen, Sean Harris outperformed by, I think, eight points, nine points. But he's just an example. I mean, Democrats are outperforming everywhere. It's what allowed him, despite not getting into Congress, saying, wow, what a big win for blue. What's going on here? Look, I think the most encouraging piece of this is this is not a blue district where Democrats are overperforming. It's not even a purple district.

6:38This is a ruby red rural district where Democrats are overperforming. And if you project that to a statewide race, it makes a really easy race for John Ossoff. I don't know if it's going to be that easy, but those numbers would be really concerning for Republicans right now. Rebecca in Pittsburgh says this. People are not falling in love with the Democratic Party. This is more a reaction against Republicans. However, people are falling in love with progressive Democrats. Just look at popular support behind Mayor Mamdani in New York City, whose election the dinosaurs in the Democratic Party tried to oppose.

7:12Maybe when they wake up and embrace new progressive Democratic Party candidates, things will change. Reena Shaw, what do you think when you look at the recent special in Georgia to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene, or you can expand it out, Democratic overperformance? Is this hate on Republicans right now? Is it love for Democrats? Is it a weird? I don't think it's the latter, but what is it? What's going on in your view? You ask great questions, but the one that I get asked the most is why the narrower margin? And you know, Todd, I love to talk about candidate quality, and I think that's what was at play here.

7:47The district deep red, rural northwest Georgia, fine, but Harris was a retired Army Brigadier General and a cattle farmer. I felt that he could close the gap a bit here just because of who he was, and also because affordability is still biting. Gas, groceries, the daily grind. Some voters are sour on the early chaos or rhetoric out of D.C. here, even with Trump in the White House. So I think low turnout specials amplify those signals. That's something people need to realize. Plus, the messy Republican primary split the field initially, and then Green's dramatic exit created a really unusual vibe there.

8:21Of course, Trump's endorsement of Fuller helped consolidate, but it didn't really restore those old blowout margins that I think some people were calling for. So I think both things here in this moment can be true. Yes, Republicans won the battle in Georgia 14. And yes, Democrats are claiming they shrunk the war by 25 points. That's all good stuff. And at the end of the day, Harris lost, but he made it competitive with less ad spending. That is a big flashing light to operatives. And that also tells all of us that some voters are open to new voices, especially when the basics hurt. Stephen Fowler, let's zoom out from Georgia and from this race in Marjorie Taylor Greene's ruby red district.

8:59Not her district anymore, but she's one of the most famous politicians in America. That's why everybody paid attention to this special. Special elections, yes, they're low turnout. They bring out partisans. Zoom out nationally. Wisconsin, the 30 races since 2025 that we mentioned that Democrats have basically swept here. What's going on nationwide? Well, the Wisconsin Supreme Court race is a little bit of an outlier because the liberal candidates in those races have won by double-digit margins for a longer period of time, but not in this commanding of a situation. This is a situation where the bottom sort of fell out for Democrats in 2024 by losing the White House and not having control of the House or the Senate.

9:44And so in some ways you could say, you know, they started from a worse point, so it's easier to do better. But what you have seen in special elections, but also the November 2025 general election that were statewide races where you had, you know, Democratic wins in New Jersey and Virginia and down-ballot races in places like Pennsylvania, you are seeing a surge of backlash to Trump's return to office. You are also seeing at the same time people saying, I do not like the capital D Democratic Party, but I love my insert Democratic candidate here. And so it is creating this really interesting dynamic where, you know, on paper, Democrats, big D Democrats are winning, but the types of voters that are showing up to vote for them and the types of candidates that they're embracing and supporting and that are coming into the fold look completely different from even what you would see in the 2018 midterm elections as the first reaction to Trump.

10:47There's so much realignment going on in American politics that this is going to continue to be a conversation 2026 and way beyond. Well, in 2024, Republicans won the presidency and both chambers of Congress, promising to cut the cost of living after inflation during the Biden administration. It reached a 40-year high. We all remember that. The job market, however, is down. Gas prices clearly are up, way up. Some voters say Republicans haven't delivered on that core political promise. Here's what one West Virginia business owner told the Associated Press. 14 months ago, we opened up this small gallery here, which is only 1 ,900 square feet.

11:26We just love it here. But the problem is, is we're getting really beat up with the high energy costs. This small gallery, I keep the temperature down kind of low, and I'm still paying$700,$800 a month. Um, Jared, the piano music notwithstanding under that, but he's, but he's a voter and he's energy prices aren't going anywhere but up, especially today. Straight of Hormuz, we know the backdrop of where energy prices are headed. They're not coming down anytime in the next couple of weeks. I'm, I'm comfortable predicting that. Um, speak to that voter, but what it might mean going forward here. Look, I think people came in electing Donald Trump to take care of the, of prices and to make, make things more affordable.

12:09And if you hired an electrician for your house and suddenly he's looking at the plumbing and the landscaping, he's going to be frustrated by all that. You're going to be frustrated that the electrician is not doing the electrical work. That's how Americans feel right now. People elected Donald Trump to lower prices and he's focused on anything else. Rena Shaw, do Republicans have breathing room or points to make on the economy prices now? Absolutely not. Voters wanted Republicans to fix what the situation was, which continues to be the current one. A feeling that America is not safe on the global stage and also that the prices of daily commodities have not come down enough for us to feel like life is more affordable.

12:51Well, we have to take a quick break. But coming up, how the war in Iran is complicating the Republican Party's appeal to voters. and, of course, the stakes, what all of this means for you and for the health of our country. We'll be right back.

13:09This message comes from NPR sponsor BetterHelp. Financial stress affects more than just your bank account. It can impact your sleep, your relationships, and your overall mental health. If money worries are weighing on you, you're not alone, and it doesn't mean you failed. Therapy isn't about financial advice. It's about working through the anxiety, shame, or overwhelming thoughts that money stress can bring. When life feels overwhelming, therapy can help. Get 10 % off at BetterHelp.com slash NPR. Welcome back to the 1A podcast. We're talking about what's behind Democrats' recent winning streak in elections around the country.

13:48We got this message from Don Offord, who's actually a Democratic candidate running for Congress in the 11th District in Michigan. He says, in order for Democrats to win, they need to show unequivocally that they're the party of working people. That requires rejecting corporate PAC money and electing candidates who have real-world experience solving problems and are willing to show up in places that career politicians won't. Don Ufford, thanks for that. The view of one Democrat running for office. Right before the break, we were talking about affordability, prices, and Republican promises. We're going to talk about affordability, energy in Iran in a moment.

14:27But before we do, I want to play you some comments from President Trump himself just from last week, talking about prices and talking about one area of the economy that's hitting a lot of Americans, daycare. The United States can't take care of daycare. That has to be up to a state. We can't take care of daycare. We're a big country. We have 50 states. We have all these other people. We're fighting wars. We can't take care of daycare. You got to let a state take care of daycare and they should pay for it, too. They should pay. They have to raise their taxes, but they should pay for it. And we could lower our taxes a little bit to them to make up.

15:04But it's not possible for us to take care of daycare. Medicaid, Medicare, all these individual things, they can do it on a state basis. You can't do it on a federal. We have to take care of one thing, military protection. We have to guard the country. Stephen Fowler, what do you hear when you hear the president's comments there and maybe put yourself in the in the shoes of a Republican running for reelection for Congress? Republicans already started the 2026 midterm cycle behind the eight ball. Midterms are usually a referendum on the party in power. There's a bit of a backlash. The early polling showed that and suggested that.

15:43And everything that Trump said in that soundbite that you played will almost certainly make its way into Democratic campaign ads between now and November. The sort of headwinds that people feel about the economy, that they felt about the economy during the Biden administration, that they told reporters and pollsters and anyone who could listen that they felt not great about the economy, haven't subsided and have gotten worse. and for a lot of the electorate that might show up in the midterms or, frankly, might stay home in the midterms, I think that has continued to be a major issue. So hearing the president talk about not being able to do daycares and other things when people are talking about the cost of daycares and gas and everything like that, it certainly doesn't help the messaging that Republican incumbents and challengers will have to put out on the campaign trail.

16:36So, Rena Shah, not just daycare, the president's Medicaid, Medicare, all of these individual things, we have to do that on a state basis, not the federal government. I mean, the president is grabbing third rails all over the place here. That's a good way to put it because I think Trump being blunt like that was especially hurtful to me because I'm a mother of three children under the age of 10. And it's very difficult to think about child care in this country in the experience I've had over the past decade. Look, but let me put my political strategist hat on for a moment. The timing here is tough because we have to think of how this lands with voters right now.

17:12Because, again, talking about pocketbook issues and these special elections, what we really need to understand right now is that Republicans are twitchy on affordability. Groceries, gas, and yes, the high cost of childcare for working families. But what Trump's comments on daycare did was reinforce the deliver results pressure. And I think voters who backed him in 2024 want lower costs overall. They didn't want shifted burdens. And so if states raise taxes to cover daycare, that could sting in places like my native West Virginia that are already feeling the squeeze. And also that feeds that exact crossover we're seeing in low turnout races.

17:48So I'll just say, look, independents aren't asking for a federal babysitting service. I'm not asking for that. But what people want is relief that actually shows up in their budget. And this risk looking like a – it risks looking like a not my problem when families are stretched. We got this note from Mike in Tennessee who says, it strikes me that voters today increasingly vote less for candidates than against those candidates' opponents. My fear is that if, as expected, Democrats do very well in the midterms this year, they will say this is a sign that voters in general support their most left-wing policies.

18:23It's those policies that drive voters to settle for Trump in the first place. Jared, Mike is pointing toward attention here and what might be a Democratic Party searching for an identity. Yeah, look, I think that there are a lot of people who have that identity question right now. I think fundamentally Democrats need to run as themselves this year. Like a candidate in West Virginia is going to be different than a candidate in New York City. And that's good for the Democratic Party. Where that comes to a head is in 2028. That's going to play out in the nomination process. But I don't think Democrats need to be worried about this big think who are we issue right now.

18:59They need to run good candidates with good stories who can run on affordability and stand up to Trump. And that's what we need this year. 2028 is going to be a whole different conversation. And the reader brings up a good question. Well, if we're talking about affordability and we're talking about the president's promises when he returned to office, we have to talk about Iran. In late February and without congressional approval, President Trump, along with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, of course, launched attacks on Iran. In retaliation, Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz. It's in the news today, this narrow waterway through which about a fifth of the world's oil passes.

19:37And global energy prices have been disrupted. The price of oil well above$100 a barrel already. And maybe it hasn't even peaked yet. At the same time, AAA data shows that the national average price of gasoline hit$4.15 a gallon on Friday. That's the highest average since August of 2022. In addition to the economic pressure, Stephen Fowler, the president came to office famously promising no new wars. It was a rallying cry of his party as well. The president's not directly on the ballot, but we all know that he's on the ballot in these midterms. How are you and the voters you talked to digesting the war in Iran and what it means for Republicans now?

20:23There's been a lot of focus on what's happening in the Republican Party, what is sort of fracturing. I mean, we mentioned earlier Marjorie Taylor Greene. The reason that there was a special election for Marjorie Taylor Greene's old seat is because she resigned from Congress. She had a large falling out with Trump over last year's military actions in Iran, among other things. And so there's been this sort of question of, you know, is there a fracturing of the MAGA base, of Trump's base? And the answer that I found in talking to a lot of Republicans and Republican voters and people with varying degrees of opinions about Trump is yes and no.

21:05And what you're seeing, and you're seeing in these election results as well, is that there is still a core group of Republican Party voters and especially Republican members of Congress that are completely on board with whatever Trump says and does. And they're able to comport something like no new wars into what's happening in Iran and saying it's not a new war. It's finishing 47 years of things that have happened. But what you're also seeing at the same time is fewer and fewer people identifying as MAGA, identifying as a member of the Republican Party base. And for a midterm election and a midterm electorate, it's all of those people that fall away either to revert to the Democratic Party and the Democratic candidate or to the couch that is going to make this November's election cycle, I think, a lot more unique than, say, what we saw in 2024 or what we will see in 2028.

22:01There are few issues that clunk into the middle of a national political conversation like a war, like a war of choice and the energy prices and home prices that come along. I say home prices, the price you pay to run your life. I mean, a war is just about as big as it gets here right before the midterms. How are you guys? Let's open it up. Just talk about Iran. And through the eyes of voters and what this means for what Donald Trump's party is trying to sell to voters here. Can I just be honest? Of course. I'm super sad. I'm a millennial. I'm an elder millennial. I watched 9-11 as a young girl.

22:41It set the stage for everything else that came. And I just didn't think we'd be here. I've had my misgivings with Trump, but I believed him. I thought he wouldn't do it. I thought he'd listen to his people who said, we cannot endure another war. Please stop sending millions of dollars abroad when I am right here in D.C., Northern Virginia, Maryland, seeing my fellow citizens need government services. It's the federal government's job to provide a better life in some ways, to give us that safety net when we're having hard times. And times have not been easy for a whole generation of millennials like me.

23:18And I don't want to say, woe is me. I'm not a victim. This is the greatest country in the world here. Anything's possible. But this reckless escalation is heartless. It's not putting anybody at the center. The president isn't even putting his own grandkids at the center. He's got baby grandkids that are gen alpha. How he can look into their eyes, I'm struggling with words, how he can look into their eyes and do this. It's emotional. It's an emotional feeling. And I think Republicans agree with me by and large. Jared, how much did it matter, given what Rena is saying? How much did it matter that the president didn't really bother to even try to get the American public on board before this adventure?

23:59I think it was a real problem. And look, I don't want to make another elder millennial reference, but we are of the same generation here. Love it. You know, this reminds me a lot of politically where we were in 2006. There was a war of choice in the Middle East that was extremely unpopular that George Bush at that time at least even tried to explain it. Granted, the rationale wasn't true, but he tried to explain it. And Trump didn't even try this time. Meanwhile, prices are going up. People think he's taking his eye off the ball. He's more interested in a war in Iran and attacking the Pope in the UFC fight than he is in what you're paying for gas.

24:31The priorities are wrong here. I think that's a big takeaway is that this isn't about policy. This is about a legacy that's only his. And Republicans saying that this projects strength on the world stage is wrong. And that's why you don't hear many of them going out on the cable saying it. Meanwhile, we got this comment from Stephanie, and this is an important one for both parties, especially for Democrats. I've voted Democrat my whole life, but fundamentally lost faith in that party due to Biden's support for Israel's genocide. In Gaza, former Biden officials are just as responsible for violations of American and international law as those in the Trump and Netanyahu regimes.

25:04I will not support any candidate or party that endorses unconstitutional military support for Israel in violation of our own laws. I've changed my party affiliation to independent, and I'm advocating that others do so as well. Stephanie in Baltimore, thank you for that comment. Stephen Fowler, that's one voter, a Democratic voter, former, for whom Israel and American support for Israel is top of mind. Regardless of the details in her statement, her intentions as a voter are clear, and I suspect in the Democratic ranks she's not alone. Right. Right. And that's what we've we talked about a little bit of foreshadowing of 2028 and what's to come.

25:47You know, for the last decade, Donald Trump has dominated and commanded the state of American politics. He has done a lot of defining of what the Republican Party is and isn't and what the Democratic Party is and isn't. And as we approach the end of his second term or when his second term will end, there are a lot of conversations bubbling up in both the Democratic and Republican parties of what comes next. And you're seeing that play out with the Democratic Party where there's this new coalition and these new sort of fault lines that are coming up on things like technology, big tech companies and AI and the America's support for Israel.