The News Roundup For April 17, 2026

27:19We're never going to get a Fed chairman until you back off of Powell. Yes, Tillis has been the only one standing in the way of Warsh's confirmation, even though he does support Warsh himself. But there is growing unease among Senate Republicans in particular over this standoff. We have to take a quick break, but just ahead, some good news, a slam dunk and a big payday. Asia Wilson signed the biggest contract in WNBA history. A lot more on that coming up, plus a lot more news. Stay with us.

27:54This message comes from Northwestern Mutual. Their financial professionals will build a tailored plan based on your goals, looking out for blind spots and new opportunities. Get started at NM.com, the Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Company, Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Welcome back to the weekly news roundup. Now, before the break, we talked about the DOJ. That's where the president goes to punish his enemies. But we also said it's where he goes to reward his friends. And this week, the DOJ asked a federal court to overturn the convictions of members of the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers, far-right militia groups.

28:33They were convicted on a range of crimes, including, in many cases, seditious conspiracy for the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol. These members already received commutations from President Trump, not full pardons in most cases. If the court approves the DOJ's request, the convictions would be overturned, vacated, and cleared from their records. These militia members would be able to regain their right to own and possess firearms. Olivier, how does this fit into the way the second Trump administration has handled January 6th cases and accountability? He has moved systematically, methodically, to alleviate the punishments of those who stormed the Capitol.

29:18and to punish prosecutors who brought cases against them or investigated them. It's been a systematic process of rewarding people who carried out an act of political violence on his behalf. It's important, I think, just to remember, based on the trial and the indictment, especially of the Oath Keepers, what they were accused of in that case, seditious conspiracy, amassing weapons in cases at motels in Arlington, Virginia, weapons and ammunition in the event that violence would spark off. They were ready for battle. And you can read that in the trial transcripts and the indictments of the Oath Keepers, the president and his Justice Department moving to vacate those convictions.

29:59Larry Rosen, who's a lawyer who led the unit that prosecuted more than 1 ,500 January 6th cases, one of the prosecutors that Olivier Knox is mentioning, said this. This is a quote. This is a sad and selfish reminder that constitutional due process, jury verdicts, judicial findings, years of hard-fought legislation, and mountains of evidence doesn't appear to matter once again. Amita Becker, what are you watching for next here in the campaign to absolve defendants and convicts of January 6th? I'm expecting exactly more of what we just saw, which, you know, the overarching theme here is an attempt to rewrite the history of what happened on January 6th.

30:42And they've taken steps on a number of fronts to do that. It's just one of a number of things they're doing to kind of rewrite history overall. And this being kind of a very politically beneficial case for the president to erase. You know, he obviously encouraged people to go to the Capitol that day. He was involved. He was there. And so I think he sees it as important to his record and his legacy to erase what happened. That's accountability or lack of it in the Justice Department and the president's friends from January 6th. Now, let's talk about your personal economy a little bit. Hopefully, you filed your taxes before the deadline on Wednesday.

31:23According to the IRS, most filers did see bigger refunds this year, more than 10 percent above last year, thanks to changes passed in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The child tax credit is a little bit bigger than before for some filers, not all. There are some new tax breaks for tips and other new deductions. But that extra cash in your pocket, it might have been eaten up by the high cost of gas. An estimate from the Tax Foundation found that average individual's refunds will be$748 extra dollars this year, while higher gas prices will cost a typical household just about the same and even more if the cost of oil holds or the conflict in the Persian Gulf continues.

32:04On Thursday, President Trump went to Las Vegas to promote his no tax on tips promise. The average refunds this season is over$4 ,000. And here in Las Vegas, many workers have reported refunds of$5 ,000,$6 ,000,$7 ,000,$8 ,000 or more, and they've never had anything. It's all from no tax on tips alone. So, Megan Scully, lower taxes for people who make tips is definitely welcome. But some tip earners have felt a little bit misled by how far this goes. How exactly does the no tax on tip rule work? What are people finding out? Sure. So it applies to workers under a certain threshold. So not everybody who gets tipped wages.

32:48It also only applies to certain professions. Adult entertainers, for instance, cannot deduct. So any OnlyFans, influencers out there, they cannot deduct their tips that they receive from their fans. It is fairly narrow in scope. And it's important to note this is temporary. This sunsets in just a few years. So any gains that they are getting will be short-lived. I noticed it actually sunsets in 2028, right when Donald Trump leaves office. Next president is left holding the bag. A lot of the provisions in the Trump tax bill do sunset at that very time. I will note, too, in terms of the tax refunds as a whole, As of the latest data that we have from the IRS, refunds are only$350 higher.

33:43That could go up as we get the last few weeks, certainly. But, you know, that is much lower than the$1 ,000 higher that Trump promised. And Republicans are really hinging their reelection campaign this year on the one big, beautiful bill. And they are saying that this bill is going to make life more affordable for Americans who feel squeezed by housing prices, by health care prices, by gas now. And we're not seeing that in sort of in the numbers that we're getting from the IRS. Well, Olivier, the president is underwater on prices, on everything, immigration, on the war, on the economy, on you name it, on overall approval.

34:32A new report last week from the Progressive Think Tank Institute for Policy Studies found that more than$4 ,000 of the average household's federal income taxes went to military spending last year. there's about to be a great big ask for the cost of this war. While we're talking about the price of gas, tax breaks on tips, and people's dollar-to-dollar, paycheck-to-paycheck lives, can the GOP turn these tax refunds that Megan is describing into a win if pain continues at the pump and elsewhere across the economy? It's a good question. I think one of the things that I've heard from a couple of Republicans is that they wish the president wouldn't talk about$5 ,000 refunds because the people who are getting$500 refunds are going to say, wait a second, why am I not getting this giant refund?

35:18So they wish he would, you know, sort of corral his rhetoric a little bit more. In terms of the military spending, there are going to be two big asks. There's going to be a supplemental spending measure for the Iran conflict and for sort of the acquisition of munitions that were spent in the war. And then there's this 1.5 trillion ask for the broader defense spending. So there are two big asks. I thought it was interesting that the president's budget chief wouldn't commit to a figure on the Iran supplemental. And I know a lot of Republicans on the Hill are worried about watching that come down the pipe, and Democrats as well, because you can make the argument that a vote for the supplemental is a sort of backdoor authorization of the conflict.

35:59Approval of the war, and that's a vote that could stick with you. It sure could. One of the big lessons of the 2002 authorization for the use of military force against Iraq, is that that can come and bite you. You know, ask Hillary Clinton how that feels. You know, ask John Kerry how that feels. So there is some hand wringing, some gnashing of teeth about what's going to happen when the supplemental lands on Capitol Hill. Tim in Michigan says, my refund was$200 less last year, and I didn't have a raise or any other changes. Amanda Becker, that's Tim in Michigan, is one worker, one voter, who's not feeling the largesse here?

36:38I will say, I mean, even in my own personal case, I would say I owed less this year, but I did not see a big refund. So these are very specific tax breaks. So if you are not a tipped employee in the food or service industry, if you are not paying interest on a car loan of an American-made car that meets certain criteria, a lot of these tax breaks don't apply to you. And as Megan already said, they do sunset in 2028. And at the same time, over the course of the next year, we are seeing a bunch of cuts to safety net programs that will be kicking in from the same tax bill that would, you know, in theory, be hitting kind of the hardest hit among us in terms of lower income people.

37:20And so this is going to be a very mixed bag, this tax bill, I think, headed into both the midterms and certainly the next presidential. Kit in Florida says, I'm a retiree. I owed$5 ,500, far more than ever in the past. And John in Minnesota says, weeks ago, everyone was saying the USA was heading into a recession. This week, the markets are at all-time highs. What's the disconnect? Yeah, let's talk about Wall Street. If you work on Wall Street or if you're invested in what goes on on Wall Street, you got some great news on Wednesday. The S &P 500, record highs. Investors seem to be really optimistic, Megan Scully, that the United States and Iran can reach a peace deal.

38:02They're looking beyond the horizon of the immediate news of wars and blockades. Where's that optimism coming from on Wall Street since so many people writing to us, dare I say, from Main Street in Radio Land don't feel the same way? Well, I think a couple of things are happening here. We certainly have, you know, we've seen huge market fluctuations during the last six weeks of war with massive drops and then massive gains hinging on what Trump says on social media. The last I checked, markets are up today because there's good news coming out of the Middle East. So, you know, we have seen these fluctuations, but also really driving a lot of what's happening on Wall Street is not related to the war, is related to AI in particular, companies like Nvidia and fueling that sort of optimism among investors.

39:00In terms of the economy as a whole, though, you know, people who are experiencing pain at the pump are not necessarily the people who have vast Wall Street portfolios, that we are long past the point of, you know, the markets essentially dictating how, you know, rank and file voters, middle Americans, lower income folks feel about the economy. And when we get into questions of affordability, we get into things like housing prices, interest rates, health care. That's all very different than the market itself. That's Megan Scully, Congress politics editor for Bloomberg News. Olivier Knox of U.S.

39:40News and World Report is here. And Amanda Becker, national reporter at The 19th News.

39:51I'm Todd difference between inflated market prices, a frenzy on Wall Street for NVIDIA and other stocks, and the real economy in America, the job market, consumer confidence numbers, inflation numbers, not just gas prices, but all of the other things that are down the supply chain from fuel, including fertilizer and the rest of it. There is a lot of worry about the underlying health of the economy despite this euphoria on Wall Street. What are analysts saying about how regular Americans should be preparing or thinking about it? Well, certainly what we're seeing, you know, getting back to the, certainly the tax discussion we were just having, we're seeing people who are not, they're not taking these refunds if they're so lucky to get one and spending it.

40:40They're using it to pay down debt, which I think is extremely telling as to where we are in the economy. We're seeing people very squeezed in terms of finding new jobs. Hiring is way down. And so then that allows employers to keep raises at lows that are not keeping up with inflation. So there are warning signs coming from many different directions here, even as the overall S &P remains high. A couple more notes from the economy here that we want to make sure we talk about. On Wednesday, a federal jury found that Live Nation, the concert giant that owns Ticketmaster, is an illegal monopoly. If a lot of your personal budget goes not only to tickets but to processing fees, convenience fees, this story is for you.

41:32Live Nation controls 70 % of the music venues in the United States. Ticketmaster sells 80 % of the concert tickets. Live Nation says it's not anti-competitive. It's just hyper-competitive. Jury disagreed. The judge has yet to rule on how this case should be remedied. There will definitely be fines, but the ruling could also lead to a breakup of Live Nation and Ticketmaster. We've covered the allegations against Ticketmaster here on 1A and will continue to do so as the consequences of that ruling for the music industry become more clear. And one more big story from the world of entertainment. The world of sports, a big week for women's professional basketball.

42:13WNBA Players Union, they successfully negotiated an agreement to raise player salaries in late March, which cleared the way for the 2026 draft on Monday. And now the league's biggest players are getting their biggest paydays yet. Three-time WNBA champion, four-time MVP Asia Wilson signed the biggest deal in league history on Wednesday with the Las Vegas Aces. That's a three-year team maximum contract,$5 million. Real money now in the WNBA. Well, we have just a minute or two left. I want to get a round of reporter's notebook here from each of you, what stories you're watching, what you think is going to be important to us in the week to come.

42:54Amanda Becker, you go first. Well, mine is going to be half of a cop out because I'm headed out on an annual family beach trip. So I'm hoping to not see as much of the news as possible for the next week. I'm sure the parts that will filter through that I won't be able to resist are I am probably going to be tuning in to the highlights of some of these Secretary Kennedy testimony sessions on the Hill. It will be too much to resist for me even being away. Megan Scully, what are you looking at? Beyond this week, you know, and with an eye on the midterms, I'm looking at some states that are very interestingly in the mix, particularly when we look at the Senate map.

43:33One being Alaska. And Democrats have recruited a solid candidate there with Mary Fletula. Who's raised a ton of money. Exactly. We just got the first sort of batch of campaign finance for the year, for the first quarter. And she has raised a ton compared to the incumbent, Dan Sullivan. Olivier, what are you watching? Two battles that are playing out across the states. One is Maryland just became the first state to say no to dynamic prices in grocery stores. And the other is the speed with which Americans are turning against data centers that are needed to run AI. Both of those things are playing out across the states, but with obviously national implications.

44:09Stories that we will be keeping our eyes on as well here at 1A. That's Olivier Knox, senior national correspondent at U.S. News & World Report. Amanda Becker has been here, national reporter at the 19th News, headed out on family beach vacation. Congrats to Megan Scully, Congress and politics editor at Bloomberg News. Thanks to you all. And we're just getting started with the week's headlines. When we come back after a break, we'll have a new panel and all of the news from around the globe. We'll be right back.

44:42This message comes from Northwestern Mutual. Their financial professionals will build a tailored plan based on your goals, looking out for blind spots and new opportunities. Get started at NM.com, the Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Company, Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Welcome back to the 1A podcast. Let's turn to some international news for our weekly news roundup. With only days left in a fragile two-week ceasefire, are the United States, Israel, and Iran any closer to coming back to the table to negotiate an end to the war? Here's where things stand right now. After their first direct talks in 30 years, Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire, but Hezbollah isn't part of it.

45:26And just today, Iran announced that its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is lifted for the duration of Israel and Lebanon's ceasefire, but with caveats. Meanwhile, the Trump administration says its naval blockade of Iran remains, quote, in full force and effect. We start the roundup in the Middle East with our expert panel. Vera Bergen-Gruen is on the line. She's a national security reporter at The Wall Street Journal. Hi, Vera. Hey. I should mention that all of our guests are joining us on the line because of breaking news today from the war in Iran because reporters, they remain. Also on the line, Nancy Youssef, a staff writer at The Atlantic covering national security and the Defense Department.

46:07Hi, Nancy. Hi, great to be with you. And Asma Khalid is here from London, co-host of the Global Story podcast from the BBC. Asma, great to talk to you again. Great to be with you all. Thanks so much. All right. Let's start in the Strait of Hormuz. Of course, Iran's foreign minister today posted this on X. In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran. So, Asma, there are currently two ceasefires underway.

46:48Is it clear whether the foreign minister is referring to the ceasefire in Iran or the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon? What's the governing principle of this reopening here? Well, I will say I think there's still a lot that is really murky about this announcement. I mean, I will say my understanding is it's really unclear in part because the original terms of the ceasefire itself were murky, right? when that first ceasefire between the United States and Iran was announced. You heard different interpretations. You heard the Iranians saying it included Lebanon. You heard the Pakistanis saying that.

47:23You heard the United States and the Israelis disagreeing with that assessment. That all being said, I do think it is a big step that now you have the Iranian foreign minister saying that it is, in their words, completely open to commercial ships. Nonetheless, and the reason I say it's a big deal is I will say you saw oil prices drop immediately after that announcement. You have seen shipping prices, energy prices across the globe really be hit because of what's been going on in the Strait of Hormuz. And I will say strategically, you also saw Iran really use this as a tactical strategic weapon.

47:52I mean, we had one of my colleagues on from BBC Persian this week who was saying that essentially the Iranian viewpoint now was that this was a more strategic weapon in their arsenal than perhaps even the threat of a nuclear weapon was, which I think is just a monumental thing to hear out loud. That all being said, I think what is unclear to me about the status of this all is that you also heard President Trump say that the naval blockade of Iranian ports will continue until a peace deal is agreed. And so I do not have a clear sense of what this all means. I think it's an improvement, but I don't think we're certainly back to business as usual on the straight and foremost.

48:23Well, of course, Iran effectively closed the straight on February 28th after the U.S. and Israel strikes against the country. Now they're reopening it on their end, as we mentioned, but let's talk about the coordinated route mentioned in that post. Nancy Youssef, what is the coordinated route of ships that Iran is saying will be allowed, and what does it mean? Why is it important? So I think what Iran is saying is that they are trying to use the strait as a form of leverage. So they are basically saying it will remain open for the terms of the ceasefire. As you know, it's not clear if that's four or 10 days.

49:01But they're not ready to relinquish its control of it. I think what they are saying is that this is temporary, that it's conditional and reversible, particularly if terms are unagreed. And I think above all, they're saying that we have demonstrated our capability to choke off 20 % of the world's global oil flows. And so both sides are putting limitations on this agreement to use it as leverage. The United States is saying Iran is going to continue to feel the effects of the blockade on ships originating out of their ports or trying to make revenue for Iran. And the Iranians are saying that we're going to have limitations as well, such that this remains a source of leverage for us as we enter what is expected to be the second round of negotiations as soon as this weekend.

49:46We're going to talk about a lot more of the intricate puzzle pieces here, including the temporary agreement between Israel and Lebanon and Hezbollah, who has not agreed necessarily to play along and what that could mean to the overall situation of hopefully de-escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf. But we will see. Meanwhile, vessels headed to and from Iran faced this warning this week from the U.S. Navy. Do not attempt to breach the blockade. Vessels will be boarded for interdiction and seizure, transiting to or from an Iranian port. Turn around and prepare to be boarded. If you do not comply with this blockade, we will use force.

50:26The whole of the United States Navy is ready to force compliance. Now, as we said, even while Iran says for its part the strait is open with caveats about the shipping route, President Trump says the U.S. blockade of Iran will remain in full force until the parties reach an end to the war. Let's talk strategy a little bit. Let's talk effects. Vera, tell us about the stakes for Iran here. More than 90 million Iranians, the stakes of a continued blockade, not just of oil, but all goods, as I understand it, except food and medicine. The blockade is for all shipping to Iran, and that's meant to have a gigantic impact on the people.

51:07That's right. I mean, for Iranians, this isn't just some abstract move. I mean, it's obviously, as you said, more scarcity, more pain on an economy that was already under very severe strain. And at the same time, you know, this is a government that is very much willing, a regime that's very much willing to absorb as much of the pain as they can in order to survive. And so this whole strategy of a U.S. blockade, which Trump kind of abruptly announced on Sunday, really was about, it seemed to be about who blinks first. You know, they are counting that this is just going to decimate what's left of Iran's economy and it's just going to force them to the table.

51:44It's going to be a coercive measure. At the same time, obviously, the global economy can only withstand, you know, so much pain itself. And there's all kinds of political pressure for Trump, for his allies across the world. So I think, you know, in many ways from speaking with experts and with U.S. officials, I mean, it was actually a quite slow coercive tool. because, you know, Iran could hang on like this for weeks, possibly months, we hear. Again, it will be quite painful, but they're willing to do that. So, you know, in terms of inflicting a lot of pain, especially when you're speaking, you know, you're comparing it to some of the military actions that Trump was discussing before, these very, you know, basically, you know, we will end your civilization, we will keep bombing you.

52:26I mean, this was a slower, different approach. Again, Trump does not have months himself. And the pain in this case moves at the speed of an ocean liner, which is not fast, right? I think that's part of the point of what you're expressing there. The pain is gradual and the president doesn't necessarily have that much time. Nancy Youssef, you had a piece with colleagues in The Atlantic this week calling President Trump's blockade of Iran his last best option. Here's a quote from the piece. The war's outcome may now be decided by whether the U.S. or Iran blink first from the economic pain and returns to the negotiating table with concessions.

53:06What's your read on the latest moves from Iran and where that assessment now stands? So the U.S. through the blockade was literally putting a gun to the Iranian economy, as Vera spelled out so beautifully, because that economy was suffering tremendously. And during the war, up until the blockade, they were actually benefiting economically in some ways because they were deciding what ships went through the strait, in some cases charging as much as$2 million per vessel for approved vessels to go through the strait. And so this has been an effort to choke off the Iranian economy. I think one takeaway from last week's talks that the U.S.

53:44got was that the Iranians are hurting more economically than they have signaled. We've heard that during the talks, one of the things that the Iranians were really stressing was economic relief, either through sanctions or through some sort of agreement in terms of their ability to benefit economically from the strait. So the blockade, I think, did have some effect in the prospect of it. Having said that, even if this war ends tomorrow, the economic effect of this on the United States and the global economy will go on for weeks, if not months. For example, fertilizer is a key material that is transited through the strait that comes from Iran.

54:27And we're hearing from American farmers that they don't have enough of it. That affects planting that's starting now. We might see that in terms of prices for fruits and vegetables in the fall. The resumption of oil production that needs to happen in the Gulf will take weeks, if not months, to restart. and we need shipping companies to feel confident to go through a strait at some sort of regular pace. And so both sides are feeling it economically now. Both sides could feel it long-term, particularly the United States, even if this is a successful military tactic. Well, the International Energy Agency told the AP this week that Europe has maybe six weeks of jet fuel left.

55:06We're gonna talk about an IMF assessment that a prolonged conflict could lead to a global recession. Oz McCallid, you're there in London. and what's the view from Europe right now? Well, it's really not optimistic. I mean, you mentioned London. You saw an IMF assessment just today, an estimate, showing that London's growth has been downgraded. That's in part because of just the high energy dependence here, but it's not unique to Europe, right? I mean, you can look at Asia. You see airlines across Asia cutting flights. Africa has been considered a particularly exposed region as well, right? I mean, much of the global economy, as Nancy said, relies not just on fertilizer, we're talking about jet fuel, so much goes through the Strait of Hormuz.

55:44And so you're going to see that, and you are seeing impacts of that already around the globe. Well, we've been talking about progress, some opening, tenuous, maybe, in the Persian Gulf, as Iran says it will end its blockade with caveats in the Persian Gulf. The U.S. and Iran might be working toward a deal or at least inching toward a framework of a deal. That very cautious language was included in new reporting from Axios this week. That reporting says U.S. and Iranian negotiators made progress in new talks on Tuesday. They stressed, of course, no guarantees. And on Thursday, Pakistan's foreign minister said in a second round of talks between the U.S.

56:27and Iran that they will be held in Islamabad, but no date for those talks has been announced. President Trump spoke to Fox News on Wednesday and gave his assessment of the war. And if they had a nuclear weapon, you would be calling everybody over there, sir, and you don't want to do that. Well, you keep saying was. Is this war over? I think it's close to over. I mean, I view it as very close to over. You know what? If I pulled up stakes right now, it would take them 20 years to rebuild that country. And we're not finished. We'll see what happens. I think they want to make a deal very badly. Meanwhile, 10 ,000 more troops on their way to the Persian Gulf ordered by the president this week.

57:11Concerns among some analysts that American naval and military resources may be stretched thin. Ships, personnel, also interceptors and weapons. The president has been spinning the imminent end of this war, Vera, for many, many weeks. U.S. officials are trying hard to sound optimistic. Why is that? What's the strategy? What's motivating this stance that the war essentially is over rhetorically while 10 ,000 troops head toward the Persian Gulf? Right. I mean, in this really remarkable flurry of posts this morning, you know, it almost felt like President Trump was going down a checklist of all of these outstanding things.

57:53You know, we're working on the mines. We've talked to allies. The strait is open. Iran has agreed never to open it again. And I mean, some of these things definitely, you know, strain credulity at the moment, but it's almost manifesting an end to this war. It's a tactic that Trump has used quite a bit when you remember his work on the peace deals or attempt a peace deal in Ukraine and in Gaza. It's kind of, you know, announce success first, announce a deal, really force it through with, you know, the biggest megaphone in the world, which is the president of the United States, and then figure out the details later.

58:24And that's kind of partly, at least from where we're sitting right now, what seems to be happening, this optimism that you refer to as kind of doing the political work. And the most, you know, a really important component of this is obviously that it reassures the markets, sorry, markets. It, you know, it's kind of steadying nervous allies, domestic, you know, Trump's own base, Republicans. And, you know, it gives the sense of control. It gives a sense that things are moving forward in this direction. But again, I mean, this is a president that declared victory in this war a couple of days in.

58:58And he has continued to maintain that the U.S. has already won and, you know, sent quite a mixed message about these peace talks as well in any negotiation. We saw him in recent days basically say they can make a deal, they cannot make a deal, I don't care, we've won. So, you know, there's a lot of murkiness in that messaging, which makes it seem like the United States is approaching all of this from the perspective of the victor, while also very much admitting that Iran still holds, you know, a lot of cards, especially the strait, as we've been discussing. Well, Pakistan has been a major player here.

59:30Of course, they hosted the 21-hour long negotiating session. It seemed long because it took place all at once, given the amount of issues at stake. Many analysts thought it was awfully, awfully short. Those talks failed, of course. But, Asma, you've got reporting that's going to be on the Global Story next week. What is Pakistan doing now to try and keep the U.S., Israel, and Iran, if not at the negotiating table, at least circling it? Yeah, I mean, I think there's a few reasons why Pakistan has emerged as the key negotiator here. And we do have an episode coming out. Thank you for flagging that actually next week.

1:00:07And I would say in part, it's because the field marshal, you know, the head of the army really has the trust of President Trump, but also through a process of elimination, there's very few people that the Iranians trust in this moment, right? They're not gonna trust the Sunni majority Gulf nations that they've been striking. They feel in some ways they were burnt by the Omanis previously. And they've had historically, I would say culturally, a strong relationship with the Pakistanis. But also I would argue there are like strategic particular reasons, reasons why Pakistan wants this war also to end, right?

1:00:38I mean, we talked earlier about a fuel crisis. They too have been suffering from a fuel and energy crisis. They also do not want to have war and animosity with multiple neighbors in the region. and particularly don't want to be caught in the crosshairs between any conflict that might become endemic, say, between Iran and Saudi Arabia, were this conflict particularly to widen. And so, yes, we've seen a number of steps taken by the Pakistanis. I think after that initial round of talks and you heard the vice president, J.D. Vance, come out, and frankly, it didn't sound particularly optimistic initially.

1:01:08He said, we have given the Iranians our best offer, but it didn't sound like any deal was really likely to happen imminently. you've seen the Pakistanis take additional steps. You saw the head of the army go in and quite literally bear hug the Iranian leader there. I'm sorry, not the Iranian leader, but the Iranian delegation, and he visited Tehran this week. So we've seen initial steps they are taking. And my understanding is this is not just totally like shuttle diplomacy. They are trying to really be intermediary for a range of reasons, in part because I think they believe it helps sort of their image and branding on the global stage, but also they just really don't want this type of mess in the neighborhood.

1:01:43Well, while Pakistan plays mediator, the Europeans are trying to plan for an end to the war. They're devising a plan to free up shipping through those Straits of Hormuz. Without the involvement of the United States, French President Emmanuel Macron says France and the UK will host talks in Paris to address the state, the strait rather. He says the plan will include, quote, non-belligerent countries, Nancy Youssef. What does he mean by that? How significant is the exclusion of the U.S. here? Well, they're talking about 40 other countries. And as you note, the U.S. isn't one of them. And I think it is a big deal in that they are saying that they don't see the United States as a partner.

1:02:28It's a rare break between the U.S. and the U.C. and such a consequential foreign policy. I think it reflects the frustration they have with how the U.S. has handled this war. So you remember that Europe was not consulted in the run-up to the strike campaign that began February 28th, even though they are very much feeling the economic impacts of it. And so I think you're seeing that, and it really tests the proposition. Can a non-U.S. coalition actually execute something as consequential as reopening the strait? I think the UK and France are also saying through this action that the strait is too important to leave closed or to not be a part of a discourse, even if it doesn't involve the United States.

1:03:11And I think they're also saying that they want to step in as a harder power on bigger issues. That as we see the US say that they don't want to work as closely with NATO, we've heard the president threaten to break away from NATO altogether. I think you're seeing Europe try to carve out a place for itself where it can be a player on these issues even without the United States. And this meeting is a test of that proposition. Well, the U.K. is really trying to be a part of it here. And there's a good reason why. The IMF's World Economic Outlook is predicting that the U.K.'s economic growth will take the worst hit of any wealthy nation as a result of the war in Iran.

1:03:52Osma, you're there in London. And why is the UK economy being uniquely impacted by this war? I mean, it's a great question. I mean, my sense of that is in part because of just the energy dependence that the UK has. I mean, it is a tiny island nation, right? And there is a lot of energy dependence, right, in a number of other nations. But also over time, I mean, just with inflation and sort of the economic weakness inherent. But I would say that it is certainly a unique challenge that the UK is facing. when we look at the world's advanced economies. But I think, as Nancy mentioned earlier, the potential ripple effects that we're going to see from this trade-from-whose closure globally are really a problem.

1:04:35I mean, these are something that, you know, folks have said, and the IMF said even, that this could, if the conflicts continue, really lead to a global possible recession. And so I don't think that these problems are unique to the UK. The UK seems to be, you know, seeing a worse forecast than a number of the other advanced economies. Well, we should take a moment to talk about China and its role here. China is pushing for an end to the war. They are allied with Iran, but China gets about half of its energy supply from the Middle East. They are Iran's main customer. There's also a summit between China's President Xi Jinping and President Trump planned for May.

1:05:10Vera, give us a little bit of insight into how China is managing this moment, trying to protect its interests while also trying to set the stage for a successful summit? How do they feel about a blockade now? And how are they using their influence on Iran? As you mentioned, I mean, they've been walking quite a delicate line here because in some ways they are benefiting strategically. You know, they do want to protect their Middle East energy interests, but they want to preserve these ties both with, you know, Washington and with Iran and, you know, kind of set themselves up. They've been working for months for this Trump-She summit, right?

1:05:48I mean, this is really important for both sides, but the Chinese have been putting in a lot of legwork on that front. And, you know, it's already been postponed once because of this war. So they want to put themselves in a position that when, you know, these two leaders meet face to face, you know, it's as successful as possible. So they have, you know, been somewhat careful to not be very confrontational with the U.S., to not criticize them very sharply publicly. And also kind of keep themselves in a position where they're useful. I mean, Trump gave them credit to an extent for bringing Iran to the table, you know, useful, but not too useful, right?

1:06:23They don't want to be seen as the main player, but they like the leverage from being seen as obviously a superpower that is necessary and, you know, can play quite a role behind the scenes. So, you know, if Washington needs, you know, needs the Chinese to be prodding Iran one way or the other or keep them at the table, their relevance just keeps increasing. So they've been actually doing this, by all accounts, so far quite well, again, by keeping themselves relevant and useful to both sides, you know, without really, you know, while, again, keeping their eye on the ball when it comes to this summit and putting themselves in a position that when they meet, they'll be able, you know, they won't really have ticked off Trump and still kind of be seen as someone who's really essential in this conflict without being a main player.

1:07:07Also important to note that China has a little bit more breathing room than you might think here because they have massive, massive domestic crude oil reserves, much more, up to three times more than the United States. That means they can go longer without those ships on the high seas. Well, the Iran war is having ripple effects throughout the region as well as the world. Let's talk about Lebanon. Hezbollah, a Lebanese-based militant group backed by Iran, opened up a second front in Israel's war when it fired barrages of rockets into Israel at the start of the conflict in early March. Since then, Israel's military campaign has killed over 2 ,100 people.

1:07:45That's according to Lebanon's health ministry. Israeli airstrikes killed more than 300 people hours after the two-week ceasefire was announced. It's unclear how many of those were civilians and how many were fighters. It's also displaced over 1.2 million people in the country. That's about 1.5 people, one in five people in Lebanon. Hezbollah attacks have killed two Israeli citizens and 13 soldiers have been killed in Lebanon, according to Israel. Well, on Thursday, Israeli strikes destroyed the last bridge connecting southern Lebanon to the rest of the country. Earlier this week, we spoke to Christopher Stokes in Beirut.

1:08:24He's the emergency coordinator for Doctors Without Borders. He shared what losing that last bridge could mean for getting critical humanitarian aid to people in southern Lebanon. It's really a lifeline. It's the last link that allows people to get food, supplies, medicine, that allows our teams to work there. It's the last remaining link between the rest of the country and this whole piece of land where there are still perhaps up to 80 ,000, 100 ,000 people living south of the Lidani. Following Israeli evacuation orders, maybe 400 ,000, 500 ,000 people have left that area. But again, driving through there yesterday and regularly, these aren't ghost towns.

1:09:04People are still trying to survive down there. So that last remaining bridge is essential. But this week, something historic. Israel and Lebanon met in Washington, D.C. for their first direct talks since the 1980s. They agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. But here's a critical point. Hezbollah was not part of that deal. And a senior official for Hezbollah said the group has not said whether the group will adhere to anything that Israel and the Lebanese government agree to. However, since then, they've been careful to not explicitly say whether they're on board or not. Nancy Youssef, let's get a gut check here.

1:09:41How meaningful is a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon if Hezbollah isn't at the table? Well, look, the Strait of Hormuz was opened in part because of this deal. Remember that the Iranians kept closing it after the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran because of ongoing fighting in Lebanon. So most immediately, it was a contributing factor to the reopening of the strait. But now that means that everything is contingent on how much the Lebanese government can control the actions of Hezbollah, which is an actor within the state and armed resistance group. And Hezbollah has ideological reasons and strategic reasons to potentially keep fighting.

1:10:26Hezbollah's primary ideological rationale is that it's a resistance force against Israeli aggression. If Israel resumes strikes, will they not be tempted to resume strikes? Then there are strategic ones in terms of protecting southern Lebanon, in which Israel is trying to create and has created a buffer. Having said all that, Iran also has an incentive for Hezbollah to not continue fighting because of the fragility of the peace deal. What Iran has demonstrated is that its reach through its proxies continues all the way to Lebanon and that it can leverage its influence outside of its borders. That's what Hezbollah is giving them.

1:11:06So I imagine that as these talks go through, they will have an incentive as well to contain Hezbollah. As of now, despite Hezbollah's warnings and the run-up to this agreement that they may or may not abide by the terms of it, they have done so. I think that speaks to the role of Iran in this and the fact that the deal is holding. But they face challenges in terms of their reason for existing and what influence they can continue to have on Lebanon. It's amazing how much all of this is now contingent on the strength of the Lebanese government to keep them in check. And we talked about the strength of the Lebanese government and the delicate, in many ways, dysfunctional situation in Lebanon earlier this week on 1A.

1:11:46Here was one of the Truth Social posts that Vera mentioned that the president issued just today. Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are prohibited from doing so by the USA. Enough is enough. Nancy Youssef, has Israel been informed that they are prohibited from doing so? I think the military relationship between Israel and the United States is so critical. What the president is saying is we are leveraging that and telling Israel you cannot keep bombing because there's so much at stake for us. So much at stake. It is easy to see a domino effect if the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel should falter because of Hezbollah or Israel or anyone else.

1:12:27It's easy to see Iran then backing away from its opening of the strait and from us remaining right back at square one. Let's stick with Israel and Lebanon because it is a key piece in the overall picture here, a tenuous picture, fighting in southern Lebanon's border towns. Well, they continued to rage on Thursday. After the ceasefire announcement, thousands of people started traveling back to southern Lebanon to see if their homes and their towns were still standing. Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel says that he will not withdraw from southern Lebanon, which where Israel says it's constructing what it calls a security zone to protect it from Hezbollah rockets.

1:13:07What does Israel's presence, Nancy Youssef, in southern Lebanon mean for the likelihood of the ceasefire and it holding? Well, you'll remember that the Israelis have built this 20, I think, kilometer buffer zone. And we've seen a real exodus of residents in southern Lebanon. That's primarily Shia. It's also Hezbollah's stronghold. And the prime minister of Israel has described this as a key part of security for northern Israel and has said that his aim is to sustain it. He's also said that disarmament of Hezbollah is a key objective. And that's a very big one, right? Because how do you disarm a group as powerful as that?

1:13:49What happens if you come up short of it? So I think one thing we're hearing from the Israelis, both from their leadership and their population, is real frustration that for all the sacrifices that their country has made, for all the military investment they've made, that they haven't seen the kind of weakening of Iran and its proxies in the areas that matter most to them. And so I think that tension between Israel and the United States about the importance of weakening the regime and its influence could become a pressure point further down the line. Nancy mentioned the tenuous and in many ways weak government of Lebanon and the domestic situation in that country.

1:14:31Earlier this week, we talked to David Hale, former U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, about the complex political and social landscape of the country and how it's being challenged and strained by this current conflict. Here's what he said about Lebanon's future. What's happening in Lebanon is essentially there are a lot of causes for it, but essentially it's a projection of Iranian power, which is being rejected by Israel. And the atmosphere is going to be shaped by however the American strategy toward Iran ends up. My guess is it's going to be murky. But our task, I think, and I talked to leaders on both the Israeli and Lebanese side, they're convinced as well that there is an opportunity to detach Lebanon from that.

1:15:14The nut that's got to be cracked is the disarming of Hezbollah, which is not just a military goal, although there has to be an enforcement mechanism by the army, but it's also a political process. Asma, what are the U.S.'s broader goals here? Are they strategically aligned with Israel's goals in Lebanon, even as the Lebanese government doesn't have much power on its own to disarm Hezbollah, as the ambassador says? Yeah, and I think a few things here. I mean, I think the Trump administration's primary goal is to have a ceasefire in Iran. And I see the Lebanon situation as kind of ancillary to that and that the Trump administration, I mean, look, the U.S.

1:15:55government has not been actively involved in that war. But in order to negotiate an end to the ceasefire, the Iranians certainly see Lebanon as part of that, right? And to some degree, the Pakistanis do as well. We've been the key negotiator here. And so I see that as the main fixation for the Trump administration. At the same time, I will also say we've seen no indication that the Trump administration has ever blocked or stopped the Israelis from their actions in Lebanon. And you have seen suggestions from the Trump administration that they, too, view Hezbollah as a problem. On the issue, though, of disarmament, right, I do think that is a real big unknown.

1:16:30I had a colleague here at the BBC who actually asked a senior official within Hezbollah about this issue, about disarmament. And they said not until a proper ceasefire, a real one, not until Israeli withdrawal. And so that really raises questions about the longevity of a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel if ultimately the key party of that conflict, Hezbollah, is not willing to totally disarm. And we know that Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has long believed that that is ultimately the mission for that bombing campaign in southern Lebanon. I want to check in on one important thing, list of things that the president has said just this morning.

1:17:09Vera, you referred to this. I read part of the Truth Social post that said Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They're prohibited from doing so. Enough is enough, says the president. There's more to that message. It goes like this. The USA will get all nuclear dust created by our great B-2 bombers. I assume that means fissile or enriched uranium inside Iran. No money will exchange hands in any way, shape or form. This deal is in no way subject to Lebanon either, but the USA will separately work with Lebanon and deal with the Hezbollah situation in an appropriate manner. Vera, that's the rest of that message that you brought up.

1:17:46This is the president going down this checklist. It seems to me a bunch of fiats about the way this is going to go. Do his fiats, do they indicate the final result of negotiations here? He's saying we'll get all the nuclear material. You'll get no money. This has nothing to do with Lebanon and Israel's not going to bomb Lebanon anyway. I think that's basically what you're going to see, you know, all of us reporters try to do today is, you know, go back and look at, you know, he did release just a remarkable number of statements, all of which are kind of meant to show that this war is racing to a conclusion, right?

1:18:24So, you know, as you mentioned, like the nuclear issue, like the fact, you know, he's just really laying all of these out in a row. And I think it's really difficult to tell right now, obviously, how much progress has been made in some of them. Others, like as we mentioned, him saying that, you know, Iran agreed to never again close the strait is a bit hard to believe, given what we know these negotiations are. But in terms of the ones you just mentioned, I think we truly just don't know. We know that there's been, again, when you see how long it took just in past years to even get, you know, something like a nuclear deal, how many years it took to go down every single point and get to an agreement, the idea that, you know, one round of which were basically failed or stalled talks and, you know, before we even get to the second are going to be able to produce resolutions across this like incredibly broad, sprawling list of items.

1:19:17it's just really hard to believe that that's happening right now. So I think he is doing what he has done a lot in recent months, which is kind of state his preferred maximalist end goals and then hope that people can kind of work behind the scenes to fill in the blanks and get it as close as can be in order for him to declare victory. But I do think for all of the things you just raised, we just don't know yet exactly how much progress has been made. Well, we keep bouncing back into the Persian Gulf and with good reason. two semi-official news agencies in Iran are casting doubt on an earlier announcement that the Strait of Hormuz was being open to global traffic.

1:19:52The news agencies say the Strait requires the supreme leader's approval and not just that of Iran's top diplomat, Abbas Arachi. Asma, what do we know about this and what's happening inside Iran? I'll be honest. I am seeing and hearing this as you're speaking about it too. I mean, And my understanding is that initially Iran had opened it, but that it was going to be really murky to like carry that out entirely. So I am going to pass here to someone who may have a clear understanding, to be honest, on what exactly is going on about the reopening. I don't know if anybody else has heard about this breaking news, but it might go to the broader question.

1:20:29Nancy, you can take this or not, about how unified the Iranian leadership might be right now. I mean, that's the first major fissure we've seen in the Iranian leadership. And I find that quite interesting. That's such a critical time because one of the things we've been watching for throughout this conflict was defections by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or defections of government. And the idea that the foreign minister would put out such a definitive statement and there's a suggestion that it's not happening, I think it's an interesting development. But like Esma and Vera, we're all still trying to figure it out.

1:21:05But it's an inflection point, I think, having said that, given that we've been on the air for nearly an hour and had three or four swings. So I don't want to say anything too definitive, but it gets at the tenuousness of all of this. A fast-moving story. We'll spend much more time on it. We've lingered most of the hour in Iran, Lebanon, the Persian Gulf, and the Strait of Hormuz. and we will continue to do so on the show, even as we keep an eye on the rest of the world. There's a new landscape in Hungary this week. For the first time in 16 years, Viktor Orban will no longer lead that nation from Budapest.

1:21:46We will do everything in our power to ensure that this truly marks the beginning of a new era because the Hungarian people did not vote for a simple change of government but for a complete transformation of the system. That's Peter Magyar, the victor in that election, speaking on Monday. Now, this election attracted global attention. President Trump campaigned for Orban. Vice President J.D. Vance traveled to Hungary to stump on Orban's behalf. Other right-wing leaders, including Marine Le Pen of France, rallied to support his campaign. Nancy Youssef, why is this election and Orban's defeat so significant?

1:22:23Well, if I could just set the scene. I mean, in the run-up to this, there were polls showing that Orban was behind significantly, and yet people weren't quite sure because in his 16 years, he had really centralized authority over the media, over the judiciary, over government, over universities. His party and his governance were so entrenched that there was a real question about whether there could be a real change inside Hungary. And then we saw a 77 % turnout of voters, one of the highest numbers we've seen in years. And not only was he defeated, he was defeated by a two-thirds majority, which means that there's a potential to undo a lot of the changes that he's made.

1:23:03But to your specific question, I think it really ends the sort of defining model of illiberal democracy that both Trump supporters and other supporters of this kind of system embrace. It's a real setback for the global far right. And it also marks a major shift inside the European Union because we saw Hungary as sort of the vote often to stop further European investment in Ukraine, further support Ukraine. So we might see that shift happen. It's a geopolitical loss for Russia, although they won't concede it publicly. No, no. The Kremlin says this week that Vladimir Putin was never friends with Viktor Orban.

1:23:45That's not true. Vera, what could the leadership change mean for the war in Ukraine, for Russia, as they watch a country that has been both a NATO ally and a Russian ally abandon, at least for the moment, right-wing populism? Right. I mean, I think for Ukraine, it's almost less of a breakthrough. They're not necessarily gaining someone who's going to support them as strongly as a lot of these other European nations, but it's the removal of someone who is blocking it, right? It's more the removal of someone who is so pro-Russia, so aligned, kind of, you know, this irritant in some senses if you are pro-Ukraine in Europe.

1:24:23And then, you know, someone who's going to be now a different kind of voice. And, you know, losing like uniquely pro-Russia friendly voice inside of Europe is going to matter quite a bit for Ukraine. And as Nancy mentioned, I mean, just the fact that this was a fairly big loss for the global far right and also for those kinds of views, which for a while seemed to be really spreading also with some of these other pro-Russia friendly right wing parties in other European countries. Orban was kind of the figurehead of that movement in Europe. And so his loss, even if he's not replaced by someone who is, you know, necessarily fervently pro-everything Ukraine, is going to make quite a big difference, I think, there.

1:25:05And again, for the signaling that it sends to these other pro-Russia factions and other European countries as well. Well, we can't leave a discussion about global politics and geopolitics this week without talking about Donald Trump and the Pope, His Holiness the Pope, Leo XIV. Asma, there are 1.4 billion Catholics in the world. At this point, people listening to us are aware of the flame war that Donald Trump launched against the pontiff. The pope has been speaking out around the world about his maintaining church opposition and theological opposition to the war. What's your view on this moment and the battle that Donald Trump has chosen here?

1:25:49Well, look, I mean, I think traditionally the American president has always had the largest megaphone of any American in the world. And we're in a really unique position in which we have an American pope and an American president at the same time. And we saw, I think, this pope, Pope Leo, initially take, I think, what I would describe as somewhat like deliberate carefulness initially in terms of how he was going to speak up on specific issues around immigration and deportation. we've seen over the last several days a much louder megaphone. The last thing I want to say, though, on this, if I can tie two quick threads together, I think this has been a tough week for Trumpism in Europe, both in the election we saw in Hungary, but also in particular a woman who was described often as a Trump whisperer.

1:26:32The prime minister of Italy, Georgia Maloney, is increasingly distancing herself from the Trump administration. I would say it's a really big move, and in major parts she's saying this is because of President Trump's remarks about the pope. And also showing just how deeply unpopular the American and Israeli war with Iran is on the street in Europe. That's a great analysis. I want to thank our guest, Asma Khalid, co-host of the Global Story podcast from the BBC, Vera Bergen-Gruin, national security reporter at The Wall Street Journal, and Nancy Youssef, staff writer at The Atlantic. Mike Kidd is our sound designer and engineer.

1:27:08Chris Gastano is our digital editor. Maya Garg is our senior managing producer. Alexandra Bote is our senior supervising producer. Aileen Humphries is our senior producer and editor of 1A On Demand. And Thomas Liu produces our podcast. Special thanks to Arfi Getty for additional On Demand support this week. This program comes to you from WAMU, part of American University in Washington, distributed by NPR. I'm Todd Zwilich. This is 1A.

1:27:55This message comes from Northwestern Mutual. Their financial professionals will build a tailored plan based on your goals, looking out for blind spots and new opportunities. Get started at NM.com, the Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Company, Milwaukee, Wisconsin.