The News Roundup For June 12, 2026

26:34But I think everybody knows instinctively something is wrong here. Megan, so I just want to reiterate what Mike Johnson said there. He said that he thinks voter fraud is happening, but it's impossible to prove. And that someone, everyone knows instinctively something is wrong here. Let's just start with the facts of what we know about voting. California has consistently been one of the slowest states in the U.S. to count mail-in votes. Yes. Is it because of the size of California? There's a lot of factors here. And this goes back to when Trump was president the first time. It goes back decades.

27:06You know, California is massive, but every voter in the state gets a mail-in ballot and many use them. As long as the ballots are postmarked by Election Day, they have seven days to get in. So this is, you know, so there are ballots that come in after Election Day, but were mailed then. And those ballots still count as long as they are within those seven days. That can be in California as much as I think in the last election, it was about 450 ,000, 460 ,000, which is about two and a half percent of the electorate there. So it's not an insignificant number. Some of these ballots come from, we should say, members of the military who are serving overseas or in other states as well.

27:50In addition, California has a very complex process for how they verify signatures. So they have a complex process to prevent fraud. There's nothing diabolical about that. They have a manual system in addition to an electronic system to check signatures. So this is, you know, slow counting does not equal fraud in this instance. You're actually saying it's the opposite. But it doesn't mean it's a good thing either. And I think people on all sides argue that California should figure out a way to move a little bit faster. It doesn't inspire trust. It doesn't inspire confidence. There is no evidence whatsoever of fraud or corruption, but it doesn't mean that states should just take forever to count their votes.

28:33I mean, one other important point here is that I think there's a risk that President Trump and other Republicans are setting the stage to cry foul after the midterms. The midterms are expected to be very good for Democrats. And generally, presidents come out and admit that that was a thumpin' or a shellackin' or whatever it was, and they sort of sheepishly promised to work with the other party. I don't think we can anticipate that in this case. So this could be laying the groundwork for what you're going to see in November. When we come back, we're going to be talking about an upcoming Supreme Court ruling, which could affect vote counting in at least a dozen states, including California.

29:05That's just ahead.

29:11This week on the NPR Politics Podcast, Republicans in Congress passed$70 billion in funding for immigration enforcement,$38 billion to ICE alone. That represents a massive increase with little oversight attached to how the money is spent. We unpack how the move limits the power of Congress and what it could mean for the midterms this week on the NPR Politics Podcast. This message comes from Jerry. Are you tired of your car insurance rate going up even with a clean driving record? That's why there's Jerry, your proactive insurance assistant. Jerry compares rates side-by-side from over 50 top insurers and helps you switch with ease.

29:51Jerry even tracks market rates and alerts you when it's best to shop. No spam calls, no hidden fees. Drivers who save with Jerry could save over$1 ,300 a year. Switch with confidence. Download the Jerry app or visit jerry.ai slash npr today. Let's get back into our news roundup. Let's talk about the Supreme Court. We're receiving a ruling any day now on whether states' ballots must be received by election day to count. That case is involving Mississippi, but obviously the ruling could affect vote counting in a dozen states, including California. Naftali, we were talking about this before the break about the need to make this faster.

30:29David, could the Supreme Court ruling actually make vote counting faster in California? Yeah. Potentially, yes, because it does come down to this issue of, you know, can ballots be counted as long as they are postmarked by when polls close and more than a dozen states are affected by this? Yet again, they all have slightly different rules. I think what the election experts are saying about this Supreme Court ruling is that a lot would still depend on how state lawmakers respond, how local election officials respond. Whether they go back to the court pushing for any additional steps, I think it's complicated and not entirely clear.

31:12We might not necessarily just get a Supreme Court ruling and everything changes overnight. As we know, elections tend to be messy. So the Supreme Court case does have implications for a number of states. Naftali, is it clear which political party stands to gain the most if mail-in ballot rules are tightened? Republicans probably stand to gain the most because Democrats are more likely to vote by mail-in voting, in part because President Trump has spent years now trashing mail-in voting. And so there are many Republicans who are a little bit wary of it. One of the interesting things is that the courts actually has three major election-related cases.

31:48They greatly weakened the Voting Rights Act, as we know. They have this mail-in ballot case coming up. And I think they're likely, just based on the justices' comments during the oral hearing, to say that a vote has to be in by Election Day. And they have another one that involves campaign spending. It's not unlikely that all three of the rulings help the Republicans. And I think it's going to create a certain backlash among Democrats. What the effect of that will be is unclear, but I think it's really notable how involved the court has become in the nitty-gritty of elections. We just got this message from Naveen.

32:28Why haven't you mentioned how President Trump has given us the most secure border in 55 years? That is the main reason he won. He started every rally in 2024 with Biden's open border, and he will have the largest mass deportation ever. I say this as a non-white American and son of legal immigrants who's very upset with Democrats' embrace of illegal immigration. Naveen, thanks for sending in that email. Actually, we're going to talk about that now because let's turn to the nearly$70 billion immigration enforcement bill, which Republicans in the House passed narrowly on Tuesday. President Trump signed into law on Wednesday.

33:06The package funds ICE and Border Patrol through the end of Trump's term. After Democrats refused to support more funding without reforms to the agencies, Republicans used the so-called budget reconciliation process to push the bill through. That is not how Congress usually appropriates money to fund the government. In the Senate, Republican Lisa Murkowski of Alaska voted against the package and criticized the use of the reconciliation process, saying, quote, to completely bypass the regular order in the appropriations process by funding for three and a half years. To me, it takes out of the process we have always looked to for funding our agencies.

33:44But Texas Republican and House Budget Chairman Jody Arrington supported the practice. If Republicans today were not willing to use budget reconciliation and depart from appropriations, in order to pass a funding bill that would restore funding to ICE and CBP, then what would happen is my Democrat colleagues would defund immigration enforcement, border enforcement, and abolish ICE. Megan, can you just address what Jody Arrington is saying there in terms of just what would have happened if this bill hadn't passed? Well, nothing really. ICE and CBP had funding already. It wasn't like they were not being able to interdict or to do their operations.

34:47They actually got funding in the last Trump reconciliation bill. So they're pretty flush with— So not accurate what he was saying? not in terms, they can do more, certainly, with this money. We have seen, you know, of course, at Bloomberg, we're paying attention to the stock market all the time. And as this was making its way through Congress and it appeared ready to pass, we saw private prison stocks go way up because they are a potential beneficiary of the funding in this bill. So this certainly allows Trump to do more of his immigration policy with this additional with this additional funding, but they were never not funded ahead of this vote.

35:29That's important to say, you know, in terms of the process that was used and Murkowski's, you know, concerns about this, this reconciliation process is something we're hearing more and more about. You know, this is how Trump's tax bill was passed. This is how Biden's big, his own big, beautiful bill was passed during his term. This is an end run around the Senate filibuster. So it can pass the Senate under 50 votes as opposed to under 60 votes, you know, which is what the filibuster, you know, sort of that guardrail that it erects. It's usually used for bigger policy pieces or bigger tax and spending packages.

36:11This was a bit of an anomaly that it was such a targeted area. And, you know, the concerns that Murkowski raised essentially is that, you know, this could be used again and again, you know, by future Congresses and future presidents to enact these smaller appropriations packages. Now, I'm telling you, how likely would the bill have passed if they hadn't used this sort of bypass? I don't think it would have passed. I mean, you know, generally to overcome a filibuster, not generally, always, it requires 60 votes. And given that the Republican majority is 53-47 in the Senate, I think it probably would not have passed otherwise.

36:49And this is what we see all the time in Washington is one party or the other breaks a norm or a tradition and says they were forced into that position by the other party. And the result is that over time, these norms increasingly fall by the wayside. Kevin? Just looking ahead to the midterms, I think it will be interesting to see Democratic candidates put on the spot and asked, do you support President Trump's border security policy? Has he done a better job than Joe Biden? We could see the Democratic Party shift to the right. But conversely, Republicans will surely be asked, do you support the draconian measures by ICE in Minneapolis and elsewhere?

37:26And that will be tough for them to defend, especially as the party suffers erosion among Latino voters. I missed all the debate over this. I mean, one story that struck me this week as a soccer fan watching the World Cup was one of the best referees from Somalia being denied access to the country. And I think that has to be born in the calculus here. You might like a really tough, secure border, but just how far does this have to go? Right, when we have World Cup officials that are not allowed to come into the country. I do want to talk about what ended up in the bill. Naftali? So this is basically a bill that provides$70 billion to immigration enforcement, to ICE and to the Border Patrol.

38:04I mean, one thing this does is it's essentially an insurance policy for the president that even if the Democrats take one or both houses of Congress, he will be able to continue his roundups, his raids, all the very aggressive immigration enforcement that he wants. And I think that's kind of the bigger significance of it. Tonight, Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, commonly known as FISA, is set to expire for the first time since it was put in place in 2008. The law allows the government to spy on foreign nationals abroad without a warrant. It can also lead to the capture of communications from U.S.

38:37citizens in some instances. The House failed to extend the law after President Trump tapped housing official Bill Pulte to be acting director of national intelligence. Pulte is a Trump ally who's accused multiple of the president's foes of mortgage fraud. He has no background in intelligence. Yesterday, President Trump seemed to heed the criticism of Pulte. He nominated Jay Clayton to be the next director of national intelligence pending Senate confirmation. Clayton is a former chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, a current U.S. attorney in Manhattan. Pulte is supposed to serve until Clayton is confirmed.

39:13Megan, will this move placate congressional opposition to renewing FISA? Well, it's a Section 702. It appears that after the House essentially, you know, rejected this yesterday, didn't even get a simple majority, this extension, lawmakers up and left for a 12-day recess. So they will not be around to extend this before the deadline. It's unclear exactly what will happen. intelligence agencies can continue to monitor communications, thanks to the FISA courts and some decisions that had been made there. There's a year-long certification, for instance, of warrantless surveillance tactics, which are sort of at the heart of FISA.

40:01But it's really, we're in uncharted territories, which is something I feel like we all say far too often these days. But in this case, it certainly is true. It has not expired in Congress up and passed and up and left town. But it it will be interesting to see whether the nomination placates lawmakers, particularly in the Senate. Clayton's Intelligence Committee confirmation hearing has already been scheduled for next week, which is lightning fast. Usually it takes several weeks to get these things moving. So it does appear that the White House is paying attention to critics here, particularly Republican critics in the Senate, and trying to move this as quickly as possible.

40:45The concern, though, is whether Pulte gets any access to these files. Naftali, just to Megan's point, do we have a good understanding of the value of this section of Faisal Aram? More importantly, does this expiration tonight put national security at significant risk? Well, there's sort of a workaround, which is that the courts have certified, there's a special FISA court, and it has certified the use of this technique for at least a few more months. So it's possible that it wouldn't actually create a gap. And, you know, there's a lot of debate about it and how effective and how necessary it is.

41:18And in terms of moving forward, you know, Jay Clayton doesn't actually have a security background either. It's not quite as unrelated to anything national security as Bill Pulte. but it's far from clear that Democrats and Republicans will say, oh, okay, then let's go ahead now. On the other hand, when it comes to the Attorney General pick, after Matt Gaetz, Pam Bondi looked pretty good. And it may be that after Bill Pulte, Jay Clayton looks pretty good. So we have yet to get the temperature of Congress as to whether or not this will relieve their concerns and they'll move ahead with FISA. And that feels like a hallmark of the Trump era, doesn't it?

41:53Sort of go to an absolute extreme, get the criticism, and then pull back a bit, and suddenly your second choice is maybe not so extreme, and yet the Overton window has shifted. Exactly. We just have a few minutes left, so I just want to ask all of you, as we wrap up here, I know there's a couple things we didn't get to, the World Cup presidential renovations of Washington as well as the UFC event that's supposed to happen this week. Just quickly, I just wanted to ask you what you're kind of keeping your eye on. Naftali? Well, for next week, President Trump's going to be at the G7 in France. And I'll be watching foreign leaders and what their attitude is toward Trump.

42:31Have they reached a point where they're like, look, we just don't need or want to deal with this guy? Or will the attitude be, well, he's still the president of the United States and we've got to deal with him? And how do they navigate that? I'll be watching this$1.8 billion fund that Trump has floated. And then the Justice Department has assured Congress that would not be used to The anti-weaponization fund. The anti-weaponization fund to pay Trump's, you know, political allies, essentially. Trump seems to be trying to keep that alive, and I'll be watching closely to see how that affects various things on Capitol Hill, including Todd Blanche's nomination to be the attorney general.

43:08I'm getting the popcorn for this mix of sport and political spectacle. Donald Trump falling asleep at the NBA game the other night and apparently putting a curse on the Knicks that was soon lifted. So they did not win in four? Exactly. UFC on his 80th birthday, which I think is going to remind us all that he was the oldest president ever elected. And those questions continue to loom about his age. And then, you know, can Donald Trump somehow find a way to spoil the Soccer World Cup, you know, world's most watched sporting tournament? But certainly he wants to put his fingerprints on that as well.

43:41Right. So we will be talking about all of this in this roundup and next week as well. I want to thank today's guests, David Smith, the Guardian's Washington Bureau Chief, Naftali Ben David, politics and government editor at The Washington Post, and Megan Scully, Congress editor at Bloomberg News. We're just getting started with the week's headlines. When we come back after the break, we'll have a new panel and all the news from around the globe. Stay with us.

44:09The fatal shooting of a teenager at a protest in Seattle has gone unsolved for six years. This is open in your face. How are there no answers? Our investigation has uncovered new evidence and witnesses who say they've never talked to police. Did police ever call you? Not once. Listen to We Keep Us Safe, a new true crime series on the Embedded Podcast from NPR. Welcome back to the 1A Podcast. It's the international half of our weekly news roundup, and we've got a fantastic panel to take us through the hour. Joyce Cottom, editor-in-chief of Val Monitor. We're always happy to have you, Joyce. Great to be here.

44:45Robbie Grammer, national security reporter at The Wall Street Journal. Hi, Robbie. Thanks for having me. And Andrew Roth, The Guardian's global affairs correspondent. Andrew, welcome to The Roundup. Thank you for having me. Let's start this hour where we started the International Roundup for more than 100 days now. Here's the president on Wednesday at the White House. They had a nuclear weapon. There'd be no Israel. There'd be no Middle East. And they would have absolutely shot at us. So we'll see what happens. But we hit them hard yesterday, and we're going to hit them again hard today in case you don't turn on your television set.

45:22And we'll see what happens with the deal. We were really close to a deal, but they keep tapping us along. They keep playing us for suckers. Then in a post on Truth Social, the president threatened to, quote, assume total control of Iran's oil and gas industries, including the key Karg Island in the not-too-distant future. Later on Thursday, he canceled those plans attacked and spoke to reporters. We just made a great settlement of the war with the Wren. And we're going to be subject to finalization of documents we should get done over the next few days. Probably have a signing maybe in Europe.

46:01We've been down this path before. According to one CNN count, we've been here at least 38 times. That was on Tuesday. So, Joyce, where are we at now? 39 times. That the president has said we're close to a deal. We're close to a deal. We're hitting them hard, but we're close to a deal. And it seems Iran knows, sees the reluctance from the U.S. side. They know that the president wants a deal and they're holding on. The MOU, Naila, that we saw the lead. And right, so the deal is also a memorandum of understanding we should also talk about. Right. And then 60 days of negotiations on other terms related to the nuclear program and sanctions relief.

46:44But the MOU leaked by the Iranian state media today, denied by the White House, is very good for Iran. It includes freezing of funds, unfreezing of funds,$24 billion, half of it early on. And then the other half later, it includes ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon. Hormuz would be open, but still under Iranian control. These are main points. The whole thing is 14 points. But all in all, you can see the Iranians, they know they have the upper hand. They know they have leverage because of the economic cost of this war, the energy prices, and because of what's happening in Hormuz. Let's take a step back and just talk about the ceasefire that hasn't ceased fighting since it was implemented in early April.

47:36Robbie, is this ceasefire effectively over? Can we say that it's been abandoned by the U.S. and Iran? No. I mean, look, the ceasefire does exist in this shaky twilight zone where full-fledged war is over. You know, there are not massive, large-scale U.S.-Israeli attacks bombing Iranian targets at the scale we saw when the war was first launched. But it's also true that there are these smaller tit-for-tat exchanges of fire now that could escalate or devolve. And we saw that recently with the downing of a U.S. Apache fighter helicopter near the Strait of War. That was on Tuesday. That was on Tuesday, and it led to this dramatic rescue.

48:17And thank goodness that the pilots are back in U.S. hands and safe. But it just showed that that this ceasefire as these talks drag on is really balancing on this knife's edge. And this MOU that Joyce mentioned, it would talk it would it would bring up if both sides agree to sign it in a 60 day extension. And so we're just sort of in this limbo right now of a shaky ceasefire, but both sides haven't quite ceased firing at each other. And negotiations still seem sort of at an impasse, even if Trump has said 37, 38, 39 times that we're really close to a deal this time and he really means it. But the memorandum of understanding isn't exactly a deal.

48:57It's really just a prolonged ceasefire while things continue to be worked out. Correct. I mean, take a step back. And what is this about? The U.S. is trying to get Iran to fully abandon its nuclear program, reopen the Strait of Hormuz that was opened before the war started, and stop seizing or seize the funding of proxy terrorist groups around the region. Iran hasn't indicated at all it will budge at all on giving up its nuclear program. Strait is still closed, even though the U.S. is undertaking this operation to try to get some of these tankers out. And if Iran says that it's going, yes, OK, we will start, you know, we will seize funding of these proxy terrorist groups at this point.

49:35No one can credibly believe them. Andrew, can I just ask how much daylight is between Tehran and Washington on major issues that we were talking about here, like the unfreezing of Iranian assets, the enriched uranium and, of course, the strait? Yeah, I think Robbie gave a really good rundown there. But the answer is there's a massive chasm between the U.S. and Iran on pretty much all of the issues right now. And one of the big issues that's going to come up is that, you know, even if the Trump administration was ready to do certain things like release, you know, cash or unfreeze certain assets, there's going to be a big backlash from Israel, but also from members of the administration or from the president's party that are going to say this is worse than the JCPOA, than the previous deal that was made under the Obama administration.

50:24And moreover, they don't seem to really be able to understand if they're going to be able to have a direct deal on questions about Iran's nuclear program, where Trump has put down such a hard line and said that this is going to be, Iran can't have a bomb, Iran can't be allowed to enrich uranium, and Iran has come out and said exactly the opposite. Iran has said that it has a right to enrich uranium and that it isn't going to release, or at least it's going to downblend itself, the existing uranium that it has inside of the country. We spoke with a diplomat briefed about the deal yesterday who said, look, there's a 50 % chance that this falls apart.

50:58So I think that there's a very high chance that, once again, we're going to end up in a situation where, déjà vu, you know, in two or three weeks we could be here again. This week, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the launch of what it called Operation Nasser against Israeli military sites. Until recently, Tehran had a longstanding policy absorbing hits first and retelling later and at a place of their choosing. Joyce, how have we seen that change over the course of this war? Why do you think that's significant in understanding the IRGC's consolidation of power in this conflict?

51:31It's very significant because we're dealing with a new Iran. The war started promising a more moderate Iran, a regime change, eliminating radical elements. But Iran has moved to be more brazen, more radical in its responses. This is an IRGC that has hit all its neighbors, that has hit all Gulf states over the course of the war. And they've prepared for this moment. The late Khamenei sort of at times kept the IRGC at bay, but his son, Mushtaba, who took power, is closer to the IRGC. So this is a much more brazen IRGC than the one we've seen before. And they're claiming these attacks. In the past, they've used to rely on plausible deniability.

52:17You know, the Khubar attack in Saudi Arabia in the 90s, they never claimed it, but everybody knew it's them. And now there is no deniability even. They're claiming these attacks. Andrew, you wrote this week about the credibility gap that's being created in this war between Donald Trump and the American public. And I want to ask you about it because I think we've been sort of dancing around that a little bit here, right? Messages from the president are one thing. Actions are another. Reality is the third thing. With this change strategy from Iran in mind, can you tell us about the credibility gap Trump has created with the world as well as with the American people?

52:56Yeah, I think this is extraordinary because we generally give a certain amount of deference, both in the United States as reporters here too, but also around the world to statements made from the White House. And I think that, you know, given all of the statements that have been made about the war by Donald Trump and the potential, like you said, 39 times that we're going to have a peace deal imminently, I think... Or this week that inflation is that he loves inflation when we see inflation hitting the highest point in four years? Right. I mean, all of these things are statements that I don't think that we really believe in, right?

53:29First of all, I think that a lot of Americans would find that a very offensive statement. But second of all, we know that that's going to come back to hit Republicans in the midterms coming up. So it's clear that the president doesn't love inflation. He's very much about kind of his public persona and the public perception of what's going on. I think the key here is that Donald Trump is very much messaging towards the Iranian government when he's talking about, you know, attacks against Iran, all of these aggressive statements that he's making. But as he keeps kind of swinging back and forth and going towards aggression and then saying we're going to have a period of detente, I think people less and less are going to believe that he's very serious about his intentions.

54:05He's already said, you know, six or seven times that he's going to level extremely large attacks against Iran. And we can almost predict in the evening when he's going to say, I've decided to cancel that just like yesterday and that actually we're going to go back to negotiations and a peace deal is at hand. Robby, I just also want to ask about how this reality changes the relationship with Gulf neighbors as well. Yeah. I mean, look, some of the Gulf neighbors, you know, a lot of them have different positions. Some of them have worked for years to closely cultivate an uneasy but balanced relationship with Iran.

54:40And after this war starts, Iran starts launching salvos of drones and missiles at them. So it's clear that a lot of the Gulf countries are upset with the United States for opening this Pandora's box, starting the war in the first place. But they are absolutely livid at Iran for basically drawing them into the fight and directing all of their fire at them as well. There's a second front in this war that's also intensified this week, which strikes in all directions between Hezbollah, Israel, and Iran. The strikes between Iran and Israel were the first since a ceasefire took effect in mid-April. Joyce, Israeli strikes in Lebanon have killed more than 3 ,600 people this year, and more than a million people have been displaced.

55:20That's 20 % of the population. And we know that Lebanon has long been caught between these regional foes. What kind of impasse is Lebanon at here right now? Oh, very good question. It's still a dire situation. Lebanon, Israel hit again this morning. They're calling for evacuations of some towns in the south. The Lebanese government is pursuing talks with Israel and they want of hostilities. They want a ceasefire, a credible ceasefire. The problem is they're not the ones fighting. It's Hezbollah. And Hezbollah is getting its orders from Iran. Hence, Iran is using Lebanon as leverage in its negotiations with what we were talking about just minutes ago in the bigger deal.

56:05So absent of a larger deal that includes Iran, U.S. and Israel, Lebanon will still continue to be caught in this, you know, rounds of fire that it cannot control. Andrew, this week we saw Turkish President Erdogan say that Israel is emboldened by, quote, the silence of the international community and that Israel strikes on Lebanon and Syria threatened Turkey, which is a member of NATO, an important distinction. What's the significance of Erdogan weighing in now? Yeah, I think that Erdogan has been unhappy with Israel's actions for quite a while. But this heightened rhetoric, I think, points towards what one of the big concerns is in the region, which is that beyond the current conflicts, we could see the possibility of an Israel-Turkey conflict in the future.

56:54You know, that would put a key U.S. ally up against a member of NATO. I mean, it would be very dangerous for the bloc. It would be very dangerous in general for Western governments who would have trouble, I think, figuring out which side to weigh in on. And it very much speaks to the future of this region. You know, if we look at what's going to happen after this war, if the U.S. does kind of pull back and stop giving, let's say, Israel as much support, In many ways, we're seeing what the future kind of architecture of alliances is going to look like in the Middle East. And it's becoming clearer and clearer that on one side you're going to see Israel and on the other side you're going to see Turkey.

57:30And I think that that is coming to a flashpoint in Lebanon and also in Syria. Let's talk about the Israeli-U.S. alliance. And I want to focus zero in on the relationship between President Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. When the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28th, the two appeared shoulder to shoulder. But over the past 100 plus days, things have changed. Reports of expletive-filled calls and defiance by each leader have grown louder. Trump had publicly warned Israel not to strike Beirut in its war with Hezbollah. When Israel did strike again on Sunday, Iran responded by firing ballistic missiles at Israel for the first time since the April ceasefire.

58:09Then Israel struck Iran, with which Trump had been engaged in weeks of high-stakes negotiations. But the U.S. ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, told Canada's CBC this week he says the tensions between the two leaders have been overstated. I think a lot of what is being reported is completely out of proportion in terms of what the reality is. The reality is these are two people who have great respect for each other, who communicate probably more regularly than any two world leaders that are alive today. They share a lot of mutual interest. They don't always agree, but they more often than not do agree, and they agree on the ultimate principle, and that is that Israel is a strong partner to the United States and we value the relationship.

58:56Yep. On Monday, U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michelle Issa said Lebanon is important to Washington. Everything that is happening in Washington is in Lebanon's interest. Since when have you heard an American president mention Lebanon every day? He has even nearly clashed with Netanyahu because of Lebanon. Robby, we have spoken extensively on the roundup about the wedge between Netanyahu and Trump. I think we can acknowledge things aren't great, but can we expect any lasting change in their relationship? Look, I mean, Trump and Netanyahu, even when in the good times, have always had a bit of a frenemyship when you talk to people close to the Israeli government, close to the Trump administration.

59:40So, I mean, you know, what Huckabee said is in many ways accurate. You know, there are tensions, there are disagreements, and they find a way to pape over them. You know, Trump and Netanyahu, they're tight when things are good, but Trump has no hesitation to rail against Bibi if things go bad. And we saw that. I mean, the latest exclative-laden call reportedly that my colleagues reported on that actually was reported on on June 1st, Trump railed against Bibi and said he'd be in jail if not for Trump and said basically, how dare you try to escalate in Lebanon right now while we're trying to broker this peace deal between Israel and Lebanon concurrently with Iran.

1:00:19So it's clear there are tensions here. And how that plays out going forward depends a lot on how these negotiations play out. You know, if there is some sort of rapprochement with Iran, if there is some sort of deal where Lebanon and Israel and Hezbollah can agree to dial down the temperatures, I think we're going to hear a lot less about these expletive-laden calls. But there are a lot of naysayers on these peace deals who are doubtful that Trump can get these deals over the finish line. And if that happens, that does not bode well for the Trump-BB relationship. And, you know, to Robbie's point, these are two men with very different priorities at this at this moment.

1:00:59You know, for Netanyahu, he has big election in October. He's slipping in the polls. He needs his wars either to conclude successfully, whether Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, or to just keep going. But for Trump, as the Republicans had a tough midterm election, he needs the war to end. So this is the divergence between the two. The Israelis that we've spoken to this morning, they're livid about the MOU, what's being leaked. They think it crosses every Israeli red line. So this will continue to be problematic as the war is conducted and how it ends. But for Bibi Netanyahu, this is the toughest election for him as a prime minister in over a decade.

1:01:45So this week, of course, Netanyahu's Likud party announced that he will be running again for prime minister. To your point, Joyce, despite polling from the Israeli Democracy Institute suggesting a majority, 61 percent of the electorate doesn't think he should. Andrew, we got this question from Conor. Trump said recently that Netanyahu will, quote, do whatever I tell him. Has Netanyahu's domestic standing over the past week been impacted in any way by those comments? And what are you watching for generally as this election is going to be approaching in Israel? Yeah, I'm not sure if that specifically has impacted Netanyahu's standing.

1:02:22But I think that what we do know is that Donald Trump is extremely popular in Israel. And what he says is heard in Israel as well. And this is an election that Benjamin Netanyahu is going into where he needs basically all the help that he can get. You know, he's under a lot of fire at the moment. First of all, he is on trial for corruption issues. And I mean that's going to become a big issue throughout this election and an even bigger issue if he's no longer the prime minister in the future. Secondly, there are a lot of internal issues inside of Israel as well based around these conflicts. Joyce gave a really good rundown.

1:02:55I mean it's very difficult for Netanyahu to point to a specific conflict either in Gaza or in Lebanon or in Iran and say that we've really achieved the goals that I set out to do. And so he really needs some kind of a success somewhere, which is partially why he's so resistant to freezing the war in Lebanon at the moment. He doesn't want that to be tied to whatever the U.S. interests are inside of Iran. And I think the third thing to look at is also questions about the exemption for ultra-Orthodox inside of Israel and whether or not that's going to really lead to a blowback against the Netanyahu coalition.

1:03:29He has a coalition that's built up of different kind of right-wing interests. First, Ben Gavir and Smoltric is kind of very right-wing allies. But secondly, ultra-Orthodox allies as well. And so we'll see if he's able to hold that together as the election goes forward too. You know, as you mentioned that, I just want to quickly ask about sanctions because a coalition of six countries, including the UK, France and Australia, issued new joint sanctions on Israeli settlers and settlements in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, including against Motrik, already sanctioned by Western countries, I should add.

1:04:03Amnesty International, Joyce, said these were a stat, but they're not enough. I just want to ask how Israel has reacted to these sanctions, as well as what kind of settler activity and violence we've seen since October 7. No, we've seen gradually more European and British pressure on Israel in the hope of, you know, putting that pressure to achieve a two-state solution. But the far-right government in Israel has completely shrugged it off. I mean, Italy also put some sanctions this week. The problem in this whole equation is without the West Bank, without a settlement freeze, there will be no Palestinian state.

1:04:44And it seems this government gradually in Israel is paving the way for that, for that reality, for growth of settlements and for de facto annexation of the territory. We don't talk much about also how many Palestinians have been pushed out. At least 700 Palestinian families have been pushed out of the West Bank area since October 7. Settlers' attacks are only on the rise. Home demolitions, just attacking farmers, fields. So this is just escalating. And in an election year for Netanyahu, last thing he wants is to upset his major constituency, his major base, which is the far right in Israel. And as you talk about, it's not just the violence as well.

1:05:35It's also just the building, right, where we're seeing permanent structures that are coming in that Israel is building in terms of taking over. Yes, it's a complete wipeout of the Oslo Accords and what was agreed upon between them and the Palestinians that these areas that are joint control between Palestine and Israel is now, Israel is taking over. So that's why this is very problematic. Let's turn to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has now gone on longer than World War I, or more than four years and three months. And like World War I, it's been a grinding war defined by the era's newest warfighting technology.

1:06:11Ukraine is spending an estimated 40 percent of its GDP on its military, but its overall spending is still less than half that of Russia. Ukraine has also developed an innovative small-scale air defense system that uses cheap drones, AI innovation, and automated guns. In The Atlantic this week, journalist and historian Anne Applebaum argued Ukraine's strategy is shifting the momentum of the war. She writes this, quote,

1:06:46Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, had his own take in an upbeat interview with The Guardian. We see that steps last some months are more strong from our side. And Russia, we can't say that they are losing this war. But we can say that they're losing this initiative each day, day by day. Andrew, one of the things that did strike me from that Atlantic piece was just the whole narrative of the war. Many of the conventional wisdom a lot of people were operating with is that Russia was going to win. So with that in mind, I want to ask, is Ukraine winning? I think by shifting the initiative in the war so much, yes.

1:07:27I think that they really have managed to turn around what seemed to be a fairly hopeless situation, especially if we think back four years ago, and get to the point where it's difficult to see Russia having a large-scale breakthrough on the battlefield. And it feels like, in terms of the technological war, Ukraine has really pulled ahead of Russia. In terms of drone development and drone innovation, I mean, Ukraine has punched, let's say, above its weight in this war, has become an exporter of this technology, is using that to build other kinds of alliances with other countries. And I think that so much of this war is dependent on the expectations of are you winning, are you losing, and can you hold your ground?

1:08:06And in that sense, Ukraine has really managed to prevent Russia from making further advances for now. What happens next, we'll see because this technology is still developing and we don't know how it's going to be used on the battlefield in six months. So how do you think that's maybe how I think Ukraine has shifted its definition of winning? Has Russia shifted its definition of winning? How should we be thinking about that? From the beginning of the war, I think if we look at everything that Vladimir Putin has said, this is not really a war just about territory in the Donbass. This is a war about control, political control over Ukraine for the future.

1:08:42That's why the question of alliances, the question of whether or not Ukraine could be a member of NATO or a member of the EU are so important because for Vladimir Putin, I think in particular and the people around him, This is much more about can Ukraine choose its own political future or does it have to be held as part of a brothership with Russia? So in that sense, you know, Russia can't really change its definition of what winning is. Maybe tomorrow Vladimir Putin will wake up and say the Donbass is enough and we're willing to let everything else go. But if we look at what Russia wanted originally, then no, Ukraine has very much shown that it's independent.

1:09:16Robbie, the Trump administration stopped sending military aid to Kiev in 2025 saying Ukraine needed to stand on its own. A lot of experts expected Ukraine would be quickly defeated despite ongoing support from the EU. Can I just first ask about, though, the innovative warfighting technologies that Andrew was just talking about? What are they? Like, what is Ukraine using and how is it changing how other countries are investing in their military, Rodney? Yeah, I mean, you could sum it up in one word, drones. I actually just came back from Estonia, a NATO member on the eastern flank bordering Russia and visited a drone center where NATO troops are being effectively trained by Ukrainian specialists on the art of drone warfare here.

1:09:59And this drone center had this massive garage with a bunch of Ukrainian and Russian drones down on the battlefield that they brought in and these military specialists could tinker with it. And a lot of these Ukrainian drones that are carrying out a large bulk of these just massive casualties against the Russian side, they're 3D printed, they're jerry-rigged, they're put together effectively with scotch and duct tape on some level but on an industrial scale. in a way that's really astounding. And what's funny is NATO conducts these military exercises to train their troops, flex their muscles. They're worried about Russia setting the sights on NATO borders after Ukraine.

1:10:41And these Ukrainian specialists come in, they have them in bed in these exercises, and there's just these Ukrainian specialists who can absolutely smoke a full NATO battalion in these training exercises with a series of drones. So there are these highly, highly trained Western militaries with these multi-billion dollar tank heavy weapon systems, and some Ukrainian guys with drones can outmaneuver them immediately. So everyone is really interested and invested in learning the Ukrainian art of warfare here. You know, I just wanted to ask about how Ukraine has persevered with less U.S. assistance in the way, would you say, in a way that the Trump administration has wanted them to do?

1:11:22Has that proved the Trump administration right here? I mean, it hasn't proved the Trump administration right. But it has proved to Ukraine independently that they can stand effectively on their own two feet. Granted, with still important U.S. and European support, the U.S. is still sending munitions to Ukraine through a program called Pearl, where NATO allies pay for the munitions instead of direct aid and a lot of European support here. But they are shifting the tide of the battle in a way that a lot of American officials did not expect. When Trump came into office. You know, he expected, obviously, he famously said he could solve the war in one day.

1:11:58That has not happened. But part of his thinking there was he had a lot of he, you know, had this rapport with Putin and he had a lot of leverage over Ukraine. And in a way, he squandered both through his both cutting off some but not all support to Ukraine and also just sort of fumbling through these negotiations that didn't end up going anywhere when the Russians had high hopes for Trump delivering them Ukraine on a silver platter here. I would also say, you know, for Russia, they're exhausted economically. This years of war is leaving a bigger toll on the macroeconomic picture in Russia itself.

1:12:37Add to that, you know, we talk about so many offensives, including the Russian spring offensive, but they're not achieving a breakthrough on the ground. And losing a lot of lives. And they're losing a lot of lives. So all of this is without maybe the U.S. offering strong backing to Ukraine is benefiting Ukraine. You know, Robbie was talking about their drone technology. It's helping them not just in Eastern Europe where they're sharing more battlefield information and tactics, but also in the Gulf with the Iran war. We've seen Zelensky go to Saudi Arabia, red carpet in Jordan, in Qatar. So this is the environment, the geopolitical global environment has changed in a way that has helped Ukraine.

1:13:23I'm not sure if I would go as far as they're winning, but at least they've managed to continue the stalemate. Andrew, you spent 12 years in Moscow, and I just want to ask you about the view from there, right? Because we've been talking about Ukraine putting pressure on Russia, whether it's economically or actually hitting targets deep within its territory. Putin has said there's no point in meeting. So I just want to ask from your perspective what you think it will take for Russia to come to the table for this conflict to end. I think that the goal of kind of applying economic pressure makes sense to affect a broad number of people across the country.

1:14:03I speak with friends or former colleagues or contacts in the country right now. Everybody is feeling the economic crunch in some way. I think after the war began, there was a little bit of a sense of, there was a shock from being cut off, but maybe we can stand on our own two feet. Business is still kind of working. It feels like a malaise has really set in, I think, in the last year or so, and specifically in the last six months. It is affecting a lot of ordinary Russians, just in ordinary businesses. The question is whether or not public opinion plays such a big role in Russia or not. And my experience from that time is generally that decisions are made at the top.

1:14:40And in this case, it feels like what would force the Kremlin to come to the table with Ukraine isn't so much going to depend on this kind of economic pressure. There's going to have to be some other kind of real change of view about their prospects for winning the war in the long term. This needs to be a decision that's made by Vladimir Putin, by the people who are very close and around him, who basically see that either it's going to take too much to win this war or the war is unwinnable in the way that we see it. And there's some real reason that we need to sue for peace right now. I have heard ideas that the midterms coming up could affect that.

1:15:13If Donald Trump isn't able to really decide what he wants to do in foreign policy as easily, should we make a deal now rather than later? There have been other ideas that maybe there are oligarchs around Putin who are very unhappy with the war currently. But ultimately, I think that that's a lot of guesswork, and it's really going to depend what decisions made in the Kremlin. Let's move to Northern Ireland. On Tuesday, anti-immigrant riots broke out in Belfast after a Sudanese asylum seeker was charged with attempted murder and a stabbing attack that left a man with serious face and neck wounds.

1:15:45Off our streets, lefties come! Off our streets, lefties come! Hundreds gathered across the city setting vehicles on fire, including a bus. The riots came just days after separate protests in Southampton, England, over the police handling of the murder of a white student. Here's UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Herr Lurie Benn, on Wednesday. Nothing can justify the violence that we saw on the streets of Northern Ireland last night with masked thugs trying to burn and intimidate people out of their homes. They are damaging communities and hurting people who are innocent and who have been terrified by what they have been through last night.

1:16:30It is utterly shameful and it needs to stop. Andrew, I wonder what your colleagues at The Guardian there are saying about reporting on the ground about these protests, what's happened, what their status is now? So the protests kind of flared up over the last few days. They kind of calmed today at the very least. But I mean, what we saw was a really kind of outrageous and kind of virile kind of act of violence, of public violence that followed the second one of these kind of, we could say, racially charged stabbings in the UK that have been also used by far-right figures, conservative figures to really stir up outrage about immigration into the UK.

1:17:11You know, What you see in pictures, I think, is just part of how unsettling these kind of riots can be. When people are storming through a market or setting fire to somebody's ordinary home in Belfast because they think that an immigrant family lives there, that's something that really ripples out into a community overall. So, you know, we've seen really upsetting photos already of, you know, buses that have been set alight, fires and other violence. But I think that everybody is really unsettled by this latest outrage. Vice President J.D. Vance and Elon Musk used these incidents to publicly argue against mass immigration.

1:17:48What did we hear from them this week, Robbie? Why did they weigh in on this? I mean, what we heard from them is what we've heard from them a lot over the last couple of years. There's this through line in the Trump administration right now when it comes to Europe. And what you hear from Trump officials is, you know, these European allies, you know, there are civilizational partners and mass migration from other areas of the world are sort of destroying the fabric of traditional European society, et cetera, et cetera. So it's not surprising that Musk and Vance seized on this issue and are effectively using it as a cudgel to really prod European allies here to say, look at what mass migration is doing.

1:18:28I mean, it's causing a lot of, you know, it's causing all this discord, violence, et cetera. And, of course, the counter to that is, you know, there are a lot of European elected officials, European publics who see that type of thing as just sort of inciting more violence as a dog whistle for racist views here. We did hear British Prime Minister Keir Starmer responding to last week's protests on Friday. We need to also assert who we are as a country because Musk, again, has been interfering in our politics in the last few days, trying to whip up division. That is not who we are in Britain. In Britain, we are reasonable, tolerant people.

1:19:06Andrew, what more context should we know here why these incidents ignited as they have in the UK? And particularly, I wonder if you can respond to what Starmer said there. Yeah, I think that the biggest issue right now is that there's a real growth and upsurge of the far right in the UK at the moment. If we look at polling, we can see that the most anti-immigrant party, or one of them at least, reform, is leading the polls if UK voters went to the polls tomorrow. And what that means is that it has become the kind of crux issue in British politics at the moment. And we see this as a kind of outpouring of it that we see in different places across the country from Belfast to Southport or Southampton.

1:19:53And I mentioned Southport because there were riots that were somewhat similar to those two years ago. So this is becoming a recurring problem in UK politics. And each one of these incidents I think hammers home again that the next election in the UK is going to be very heavily decided by the question of immigration. and that is why, you know, the prime minister is pointing towards Elon Musk kind of getting involved and saying that you can see a kind of multinational group of right-leaning kind of politicians, thinkers coalescing around this issue and they see this as being somewhat motivated from the outside, from other countries too.

1:20:29And how is Elon Musk perceived across the UK in terms of the role that he's been playing in all of this. It's interesting to have Starmer specifically calling him out and saying, like, this isn't our country. I think by those who like Starmer, he's viewed very negatively. The interesting thing is that even by members of reform, he's viewed negatively too. I think that it's difficult for a lot of members of the far right in the UK to really find common cause with Donald Trump or Elon Musk or other members like that. One of the peculiarities of this kind of international movement is that they all kind of dislike each other quite a bit as opposed to, you know, like a leftist internationale.

1:21:05So in this case, you know, the far right might have similar views in the UK and the US. They're not friends. Let's move to the World Cup, which kicked off Thursday. But even before the matches began, there was plenty to talk about surrounding the 2026 tournament. Somali referee Omar Artan was denied entry to the US when he landed in Miami this week, despite having a valid visa and diplomatic passport. He would have been the first referee from Somalia to officiate a World Cup game. After returning home, Artan received a warm welcome, a stadium full of people in Mogadishu cheering them on.

1:21:44Somalia is one of 40 countries subjected to new travel restrictions under the Trump administration. Joyce, we know President Trump has repeatedly disparaged Somalis, specifically in racist and xenophobic tirades. What has the administration said about why this referee was denied entry. And how is this sort of fitting into the broader picture of this World Cup with the U.S. being one of the countries that's supposed to be welcoming people? No, totally. I mean, the World Cup is supposed to be the happy big party, you know, where these teams are coming to enjoy a fun game of soccer. But we're seeing the incidents, as we've seen with Artun, who's, as you mentioned, is being welcomed as a hero at home.

1:22:26The administration is saying they had vetting concerns and there is national security issues. But the guy was granted a visa, an official visa coming in legally to the U.S. He's been deported, sent back through Turkey. And he's not the only one that we're seeing having problems entering the U.S. We've seen... There was a photographer with Iraq's national team, which was denied entry through Chicago. Seven hours. And then that was a player, right? A player with Iraq's team was questioned for seven hours as well. Exactly. And then you had some Iranian football, soccer officials who have been not granted visa altogether.

1:23:10But this, you know, it just stings on the reputation of the World Cup, on what this event should be, on the theme of inclusivity for the United States. You know, I'm an immigrant myself, and I know now people who have been, I know of two cases of people who tried to come here on legal visas and have been sent back. And there's little explanations. So this is, we're in a different time. We're in a different just reputation for the United States as, you know, the land of the free and that would attract immigrants from all around the world. So this is different and raises legal questions. Who can guarantee through a visa that you can enter into the United States?

1:24:00Robbie, FIFA President Gianni Infantino had promised this year that this would be the most inclusive World Cup ever. Obviously, we're not seeing that play out already. And I want to just ask how politicized this World Cup has been as the U.S. co-hosts alongside Mexico and Canada in as Joyce is saying this is supposed to be sort of the happy event that the world engages in. True. And this is from the same FIFA that presented Donald Trump with the first ever FIFA Peace Prize shortly before he launched war with Iran. Look, I mean, I think there's two layers to this story. One, and Joyce put it together perfectly, is sort of like Trump wants the United States to be this global hub of big sports.

1:24:40I mean we're also hosting the Olympics in a few years. And he wants – he loves the pomp and circumstance and the economic boon it will bring to the country. But that is hitting a hard wall of his hardline immigration policies. And it's causing a lot of controversy and a lot of unease and really taking – hammering US reputation abroad. But there is this other layer that the World Cup is still, despite all of this, bringing people together. I think there's, if you need a wholesome break on your Friday, you should look up— You can watch the Curacao team. Yeah, yeah. Or look up how the city of Lawrence, Kansas, has embraced the Algerian national soccer team.

1:25:17You know, all these Lawrence, Kansas residents coming out, waving, buying Algerian flags, waving them, local Kansas high school bands learning the Algerian national anthem to play for them while they train. And so there are these two layers here of what the American government is doing and how the American people in a lot of these cities are embracing these national teams and a lot of these fans that come in. And I think it's important to look at both, but hold both in the same way and show that, you know, some incidents here of really damaging, you know, migration issues are also butting up against a lot of these small towns welcoming international soccer teams and fans.

1:26:00So we're out of time, but just quickly, if I could get a phrase from you or a story quickly about what you're watching next week. Joyce, can I start with you? Yeah, sure. There are reports that the Syrian president might visit on Sunday. So we're waiting to see if he makes it, if he meets Donald Trump. I'm following pretty closely Ebola and the ways that, you know, the changes to U.S. global health have kind of affected that. Not next week only, but just for the future. There's a big NATO summit early next month where Trump and a bunch of NATO leaders are meeting. A lot of them are white knuckled and nervous about what could come out of it with Trump there.

1:26:35One last headline before we go. Pope Leo and Puerto Rican music superstar Bad Bunny held an unexpected private meeting in Madrid this week. The Vatican confirmed the brief encounter, noting that the Grammy-winning artist attended with his family, although no official photos were released. The meeting coincided with their overlapping tours in Spain, where the pontiff openly joked about competing with the superstar for crowd attendance. Big thank you to our panelists today, Robbie Grammer, national security reporter at The Wall Street Journal, Andrew Roth, global affairs correspondent for The Guardian, and Joyce Cottom, editor-in-chief of El Monitor.

1:27:10Mike Kidd is our sound designer and engineer. Chris Castano is our digital editor. Maya Garg is our senior managing producer. Alexandra Bote is our senior supervising producer. Aileen Humphreys is our senior producer and editor of 1A On Demand. And Thomas Liu produces our podcast. Special thanks to Matthew Simonson for additional on-demand support this week. This program comes to you from WAMU, part of American University in Washington, distributed by NPR. I'm Nyla Boodoo. This is Winning.

1:27:57Millions of people in the U.S. get their flu shot each year, but a new scientific innovation could turn that routine into a one-shot stop, a universal flu vaccine, which would Protect not only against seasonal influenza, but also will prevent pandemic influenza. Learn about the revolution in fighting the flu on Shortwave. Listen in the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.