The Push To Exclude Noncitizens From The 2030 Census

0:06The 2030 census is five years away, but that hasn't stopped President Trump and other prominent GOP leaders from calling for changes to the national survey. As shocking as it may be, far-left Democrats in our country are determined to conceal the number of illegal aliens in our midst. They probably know the number is far greater, much higher than anyone would have ever believed before. Maybe that's why they fight so hard. This is part of a broader left-wing effort to erode the rights of the American citizen and is very unfair to our country. Once every 10 years, hundreds of thousands of census workers set out to count everyone living in the U.S., regardless of their citizenship status.

0:52That data is then used to reallocate seats in the House of Representatives, redraw voting districts on the local level, and decide how federal funds should be allocated in each state. Trump announced on social media that he told the Department of Commerce to immediately draw up a new census that would exclude non-citizens from the count. So why does it matter who's counted in the census? And if that changes, how would it influence the life of every person living in the U.S.? I'm Jen White. You're listening to the 1A Podcast. That and more after the break. Stay with us.

1:29Let's get into the census with our panel. Joining us from New York City is Dan Bauk. He's a history professor at Colgate University and the author of several books, including Democracy's Data, The Hidden Stories in the U.S. Census, and How to Read Them. Dan, welcome to the program. Hi, thanks for having me. Also with us is Mita Anand. She's the Senior Program Director of Census and Data Equity at the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights. Mita, it's great to have you. So excited to be here. And Terri-Ann Lowenthal. She's a former Staff Director of the House Census Oversight Committee.

2:03Terri-Ann, welcome back. It's a pleasure to be with you. Thank you. So before we get into the president's proposal, Terri-Ann, just walk us through the purpose of the census. The census is the very first responsibility of our federal government in the U.S. Constitution. I think that the founding fathers, as we like to call them, plays such a high priority on the census because it is the foundation, the absolute core of our representative system of governance, which essentially is that the people are represented and have a voice in their legislature based on a count of the population every 10 years.

2:50Dan, what does the Constitution say about how the census should be carried out? So the Constitution has changed over time, and originally it said it will count all persons with notable exclusions, excluding it says Indians not taxed, and then it said it would count all other persons, in this case referring to enslaved persons, as three-fifths of a person. Since after the Civil War with the 14th Amendment, the Constitution now says that all persons, full stop, well, it included the Indians on the Tech pit, but that has fallen out from practice over the last course of the last century, all persons count in the census.

3:36Mita, as we mentioned earlier, one function of the census is to determine how many House seats each state gets. Briefly, how does that process work? So after the numbers are collected by the Census Bureau and tabulated, which has involved many, many processes, a final set of numbers is delivered. And then there's a formula that has been established by law that determines using those numbers how many seats each state gets in the House of Representatives. So after each census, after every decennial census, what we see is that formula is done and those apportionment numbers are delivered. And they are delivered to the president who delivers it to Congress.

4:25Right now it's kind of done simultaneously, but that's the order in which things go. So it's really all predetermined and preset and guided by the number and by statute. Now, a little later, we'll talk about how these proposed changes to the census are connected to the ongoing fight over redistricting and partisan gerrymandering. But the census also plays a role in how billions of dollars in federal funding are dispersed for things like roads and schools and transit. Mita, how does this population data inform where resources should go? So I just want to start by saying when I did Get Out the Count outreach before the 2020 census, we had a saying, which was that the census was about money, power, and respect.

5:06So I really appreciate that you hit the money line and the power line so far. And the money line, if you think about it, a lot of programs are determined by how many people need to access that program. So what we're thinking about here is schools, like how many seats do you need in a school? Thinking about hospitals, how many beds do you need in a hospital? Thinking about Head Start or SNAP or WIC, right? We're thinking about how do we determine how many people need to access services and programs? And it's by using this count of all people. And I also forgot one of my favorite ones, which is roads.

5:50How do we know that we have the roads we need? How do we know we have the public transit we need? How do we know we have the right emergency disaster response resources in place should we have a natural disaster? You need to know who is on the ground and the number of people on the ground. Okay, I have to circle back to what you said, that the census is about money, power, and respect. So money, check, power, check, respect. Explain that. So respect to me has two components to it. One is one way of participating in our democracy is to show up, sorry, Dan, in democracy's data. If you show up in the data, your story is being told.

6:35You are saying, respect me and the fact that I am here and you can see me. So it's a way of making yourself known in the system, and that is the respect component. Now, Terri-Ann, Article 1 of the Constitution gives Congress ultimate authority over the census. How much say does the president have in how it's administered? Well, that is a great question. And as you pointed out, the requirement for a census is in Article 1, which covers the legislature. So it is Congress, not the president, that is responsible for taking the census and determining how it shall be done. Now, Congress, by law, has delegated a, I would call it a reasonable but contained amount of authority to the executive branch.

7:30In the case of the Census Bureau, it would be the Commerce Department and the Secretary of Commerce to determine the actual methods and operations for a census. But the president does not have the authority to call for, example, a census in the middle of the decade or at any other time unless Congress says so. So the president really has a backseat here. We've got sort of a top-line view of the data the Census Bureau collects. There's that 10-year survey. There's the American Community Survey. Tarianne, give us a little more detail on other kinds of data the Census Bureau collects. I think most people don't realize that the U.S.

8:17Census Bureau, which is our largest by far statistical agency in the United States, collects data day in and day out that measures our economy, which in turn drives the national indicators such as GDP, you know, the unemployment and employment statistics, and many other measurements that literally send the stock market up and down on a daily basis. The Census Bureau collects a wide range of information for other federal agencies about incidents of crime, about health conditions, and so forth. So there is just a lot going on on a daily basis. I think all of us would agree we tend to think of statistics kind of like the air we breathe.

9:10They are all around. The numbers are all around. They affect decisions not just that the government makes, but that businesses make on where to locate, where to build new factories and put new stores, where it has a workforce that it can hire, and nonprofits, of course, and community service providers rely on those data. So again, like the air we breathe, the Census Bureau's products permeate everything that we do, everything that goes on, but people don't realize it. They just take it for granted. I want to briefly get each of your thoughts about this question, because the Census Bureau is generally considered to be nonpartisan.

10:01As you've all said, it collects a ton of data throughout the year, not just during that once-a-decade census. So what are the implications if this data is wrong or if it's partisan. Dan? Well, I like the point that Mita was making earlier about money, power, and respect. And one way, I guess, of thinking about this is that what the Trump administration is pushing here by both trying to exclude non-citizens, but also just call into question that very idea that the Bureau itself might be acting in a nonpartisan fashion or might be attempting to get to truth is an act of disrespect, like overtly trying to cast disrespect on groups of Americans, on the statistical apparatus.

10:54But it's ultimately, this is a case of cutting off your nose to spite your face, because we all are hurt so badly by both of those aims, right? excluding any group of Americans from account means that all of the other people in their communities are harmed. They're harmed because of the services that Mita was talking about earlier. They're harmed because ultimately we're already stuck being represented. There's 700 ,000 plus of us for every one of our representatives in Congress. And when you start not counting people, that number just goes up because those people are still there in our communities needing to be represented.

11:34So we're diluting our own representation when we go along with these sorts of processes. So it's just like across the board, it's actually very difficult for all of us. Mita, your thoughts? Yeah, I will just say a couple of things to add on what Dan said. You can't be inaccurate just in one area without having inaccuracies flow through everywhere. It's not like you can cabin your inaccuracies. So what you're doing is skewing the data, which in turn skews representation. And by skewing, I mean it makes it unfair. And what we like to call for is a fair and accurate census. And by fair, that means people are represented in the data in an accurate manner, that you're not over-representing certain populations or under-representing certain populations.

12:25Once you do that, as Dan said, maybe there might be someone, there might be some community somewhere that gains, but it's at the expense of everyone else. On the whole, we all lose because we don't know who's there. They don't get services. We aren't able to provide for them. And people are left trying to spread resources that are meant for, like, let's say, a community of 10. And instead, you have a community of 15 people. That doesn't work. I would also like to point out, like, you can't wish people away. If people are present, they are present. If we close our eyes or stick our heads in the sand like an ostrich, it doesn't mean that at that moment we've managed to get rid of a population that some people might have deemed inconvenient.

13:18We need to understand the ground truth. We need to understand the reality in order to then truly be able to provide services for our population and to understand exactly who we are. And I think this goes back to the respect point I was making before. The census has an almost mythological place for Americans. We don't think about it often, but when we do, genealogists get excited when census records are released after 72 years. I went to the exhibit at the Morgan Library about the first black librarian, the personal librarian, and they had census records on the wall to show how her family, Belle de Costa Green, how they showed up in the census through the years.

14:08So it's a historical document as well. It is a historical document, and it's a story of who we are as Americans. So when Dan was saying it has changed over time, the questions have changed to reflect how the population has changed. And if we try to alter that, we still don't alter the truth of who we are on the ground. We're just altering the truth. We're changing what we're telling ourselves about who we are. Well, we asked what questions you have about the census count, and here's what one of you shared. This is Lance in northern Michigan. I find it very frustrating that we count people that are here illegally on the census.

14:50I don't understand why they should be involved in any of our metrics other than deportation metrics. They came here illegally. They should not be here. Lance, thanks for that message. Dan, we sort of touched on this already, but I'd love to hear your response to this. for lance's um concerns i suppose it's it's really something he has to take up with the constitution um i mean and in particular with the 14th amendment the ever since uh we've had that amendment it has been very clear that this census has got to be for all people and i mean another way of thinking about this is that it's already not the case that the census even if you thinking about American citizens, leaving it just to American citizens, only represents people because they, for instance, could vote, right?

15:41We count children, even though children are not voting members, they're still represented. We also have a general sense that our services are going to continue to be given to people regardless of their migration status. Now, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene has proposed a bill that would exclude any U.S. resident without citizenship from the census. The bill also calls for a new census, a redistribution of House seats, and congressional redistricting all before the 2026 midterm election. President Trump has signaled his support for this bill. Who would a new census that excludes non-citizens benefit?

16:23Mita? I'm not sure that we could say it necessarily benefits anyone. I think that that makes a whole range of assumptions. I think what we can say is that it hurts everyone, and I'll tell you why. Right now, we are deep into preparations for the 2030 census. The 2030 census had undercounts of many populations. It was not a fair and accurate census such that we call for. I mean, within the standards of the Census Bureau, it met the standards, but I'm saying certain population groups were undercounted, such as Black, African-American, Hispanic, Latino, certain Asian populations, and Native Americans on reservations.

17:05Rural communities were also undercounted. So we should be focused on making sure the preparations are well underway for the 2030 census. We should be making sure that the Census Bureau is properly funded to do that work. And the Census Bureau has lost 1 ,300 employees just this year. So we need to make sure the Census Bureau is properly resourced to correctly do the census that we've already rely on for our representation and distribution of funds and understanding of who we are as a society. So I would argue it actually hurts all of us because it directs the attention away from our real goal in what is already constitutionally required and mandated.

17:50But we're getting lots of questions about specific states. Brian emails, wouldn't Texas, Florida, and Arizona all lose count if non-citizens are excluded? And Kit emails, what states would gain and lose house seats if non-citizens were not counted? And Dan, I mean, a lot of data we're talking about here, but is it clear? I mean, one of the tricky things here is that all of the states are interrelated, right? So part of what happens is we might, it's true, we might imagine that some places, you might intuitively think Texas, Florida, are going to then lose population. Others might gain it. But it's really hard to do this without really kind of complex modeling.

18:33And I think one of the key factors here is we have really no idea what the Trump administration is talking about at this point. I mean, I think it's very, at least it's very unclear to me if we're talking about all non-citizens. It's unclear if we're talking about people that they're counting as undocumented or that they're declaring have migrated illegally. And without knowing that, that creates a factor. But then in the intro, you played President Trump saying that he thinks that Democrats know how many people there are in these various statuses. And the people who do this research really have estimates, but not any good idea, in fact, of people's immigration status and those populations.

19:14We have not had a full count of people by something like citizenship status. So there's a huge amount of uncertainty, which makes it, I think, difficult to answer that question with any precision. Well, during its first term, the Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration's plan to include a citizenship question on the 2020 census form. Terri-Ann, why did the court draw a line there? That's an excellent question, and so it's important to clarify. At the time, the president wanted to add that a new citizenship question at what I'll call the 11th hour. The Census Bureau had been planning for the 2020 census for the entire decade.

19:57And to put a new question on the form without going through the requirements of federal law to do so in terms of research and testing and so forth, you know, just didn't pass muster. I will say that the Congress does have a right, I think, constitutionally to add, to have a question on citizenship in the census. But here's the there's two points. One, fortunately, the Census Bureau already collects data on citizenship at the level that it needs. That's through the American Community Survey. So we have the data that our government needs to allocate federal program funds and so forth. But what's being overlooked right now is how we would determine where citizens are, where non-citizens are, where undocumented immigrants are without blowing up the entire census.

21:07There are a lot of citizens who live with non-citizens and undocumented residents. And a question on citizenship and immigration status most surely would drive many people away participating in the census. And we would miss not just non-citizens or undocumented residents, but a lot of citizens, including children. So, you know, it's really not possible to come up with precise numbers. We'll have more from you and our guests in just a moment.

21:46Let's get back to the president's proposed changes to the census. Now, we got this from JM, who says, We can respect everyone if we count non-citizens, but not use their numbers to determine congressional power. Wouldn't that provide an improved level of accuracy in our population information? I mean, Terri-Ann, I would love your perspective on this as someone who's worked very closely with the census. Yes, certainly. Thanks for the question. Again, let me emphasize that a census that tries to exclude some residents, you know, even after the fact, could easily end up overlooking many others who the president and proponents of the policy to exclude some from the representative government want counted.

22:37So I think you really have to be careful what you wish for. In order to identify everyone's citizenship and immigration status, there would have to be a question. that says, are you here unlawfully, for example? Well, immigrant households, regardless of people's status, will be fleeing from the census altogether and won't answer. So rather than having a more accurate count, there will be a far less accurate count for everyone. And so I would say really to be careful what you wish for in terms of the proponents of trying to exclude anyone from the count for any purpose. Now, during the COVID-19 pandemic, we had the 2020 census, and there were some serious challenges to data collection.

23:34In 2022, the Census Bureau announced that the survey undercounted Hispanics, Blacks, and other minority groups and overcounted whites and Asians. For more than a century, evidence has shown systemic undercounts of minority groups in the census. Mita, what factors make it difficult to accurately count different groups? Thank you so much for the question. So I would put it down to something really simple. It's two factors in my mind. I'm sure there are more, but I'm boiling it down, right? One is how much trust do you have in the government and how it's going to use your data? So I would put this in the context of Japanese-American internment camps.

24:14I would put this in the context of, you would say it's not census related, but like, you know, the Tuskegee. I would put it in the context of all the ways the government has managed to mistreat certain subgroups of population throughout centuries. So you have populations who are inherently distrustful of the government. And these are not static populations, right? We can see how different populations at different times would have fear of what government would do with their data. So the first question you hear is, why would the government need this information from me? So they're not showing up in the numbers because they do not want to show up in the numbers.

24:56They do not want to self-respond. There's a fear of how the data will be used. The second component is, how are we actually getting to those people to say, you should fill this out? And that's slightly different than fear. And I will put this in the context of the 2020 census. The 2020 census had another unique component, aside from political interference and COVID. It was conducted online. Believe it or not, it was not conducted online in 2010. Think about how much our lives have changed in that amount of time. This census, you got a postcard in the mail, and then you could log into your computer and answer the census.

25:36Well, I could. I'm assuming you could. But many people did not have broadband access. That was not easy for them. So you saw areas that did not have broadband access, for instance, not have as high a self-response rate, which is the gold standard in getting accurate and good census data. And it's beyond broadband access. You can play it out. Like, is it language access? Is it reading comprehension? Is it do you have a disability that makes it harder for you to fill out the form? So you can just start seeing how certain groups, you need that extra bit of effort to have them have the capability to fill out the census, in addition to understanding that it is deeply important to ensuring they have representation and resources, and to convincing them that Title 13 data, which is data collected under the Census Bureau, is locked down, safe and secure and not shared for immigration or enforcement purposes.

26:40It is not shared with other people. But that's an education campaign, and that takes time and many touches. So when you put all of that together, you can see how communities that have had historic issues with the government would start not showing up in the data. Well, I want to share a couple of messages we got from people who have actually worked the census. This is Ian calling from Kissimmee, Florida. I worked on the 2020 census and I actually did witness a lot of fraud happening. They could not reach a lot of people. And so they told them to guess who was in houses based on the houses around them.

27:23And we also got this from Jerry, who emails, I worked the 2020 census and also the 2022 surveys. I have been asked if I would be interested in rejoining the census. I can't do it. I can't tell people I'm speaking to that the laws protecting their information will be followed. I can't tell them that the laws that say census data can only be used for census reasons will be followed. I can't begin to describe just how much I hate that feeling. Terri-Ann, to the first message we received from Ian, what, if any, evidence is there to support claims of census fraud or people perhaps taking shortcuts to try to gather data?

28:02Well, first of all, I think we should thank all of those listeners for their public service. You know, it's really important to be part of what is the nation's largest civic activity short of mobilizing for war, our largest peacetime activity. There is not any evidence of any systemic or even widespread or even a lot of fraud in the census. While I cannot speak directly to what Ian is describing, I will say that using information from neighbors and perhaps a landlord or others in the community to help fill in the blanks, if you will, for a household that is really reticent and refuses to respond or just can't be found is part of a scientific method.

29:03that, you know, what we call proxy information, you know, based on scientific principles. So again, there were a lot of challenges in 2020 in terms of time. The first Trump administration was trying to rush completion of the census at the time when the Census Bureau was pushing back against that. And so I would really reassure Americans, you know, having followed the Census Bureau very closely for decades that we are talking about the most committed work, you know, federal agency workforce with, you know, the highest levels of integrity in terms of following the, you know, scientific principles for collecting data.

29:50But then we also heard from Jerry, who is really reticent to sign up to work the census again, or work any of the surveys right now, because they're very concerned about the laws protecting people's information and that those laws won't be followed. As someone, again, who's worked very closely with the census, how do you respond to Jerry? It's really sad to hear that. And I think that advocates for a fair and accurate census, you know, right now are really torn because they very much want to promote and uplift the importance of participating in a census. And yet they are just extremely alarmed by the environment in which we're operating now, in which federal data, data that the federal government collects about you, or even state governments that is supposed to be confidential, you know, has been breached, if you will, by this administration.

30:59I will say that the census confidentiality provisions in law are the strictest on the federal books. There is no daylight around the protections for your personal census data, no one, not a president, not a judge, not a police officer, a landlord, anyone can have access to your personal census responses for any reason. Well, we got this email from one of you. I am a legal resident and non-citizen who has lived in Baltimore for 23 years. During all that time, I paid income tax, I paid into the social security system, paid state and city taxes, and of course, sales tax. If I don't count, then am I being asked to pay into the system but not access to earned services?