Why Are Russian Aircraft Violating NATO Airspace?

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0:21NATO's airspace is busy these days. Not in a good way. It's especially true for member nations on NATO's eastern flank, near Russia. In recent weeks, states like Poland, Estonia, Romania, Denmark have seen drones or other aircraft violate their airspace. And in some cases, there's evidence they're Russian. Multiple countries have called on NATO to consult about what to do next. And there's some talk among NATO leaders and President Trump about how to respond to future incursions. Here's the president during a sideline meeting at the U.N. last Tuesday. Do you think that NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft if they enter their airspace?

1:04Yes, I do. So what's going on with these encourageants? What is Russia up to? And what can NATO, the U.S., and its European partners do in response? We'll get into it after the break. I'm Todd Zwilich, in for Jen White. You're listening to The 1A Podcast. Back with more in just a moment.

1:24support for npr and the following message come from the william and flora hewlett foundation investing in creative thinkers and problem solvers who help people communities and the planet flourish more information is available at hewlett.org joining us from london is emma burrow she's the european security correspondent for the associated press emma welcome thank you very much for having me all right emma Burroughs, catch us up on the various incidents in NATO airspace, where these incidents have taken place and what kinds of aircraft we're talking about here. Well, I mean, as you suggested in your introduction, there definitely is a problem in Europe.

2:04So the broad threat picture, I would say, has escalated quite significantly this month. We still don't know whether Russia is behind all of these incidents. We know that some definitely a link to Russia, but I would point out that this is part of an escalating pattern of threats that Europe has faced since before the invasion of Ukraine, but particularly since the invasion of Ukraine. So in early September, around the 9th, 10th of September, we saw about 20 Russian drones entered Poland. NATO scrambled fighter jets. They put Patriot missile systems on alert. In the response, a missile damaged a house.

2:43And I have just got back from two weeks in the Baltics where I spoke to the Estonian Defence Minister, among others, and he said that most of the drones that entered Poland actually weren't detected, which gives an indication of the difficulty of dealing with some of these challenges. We still don't know exactly how many were shot down and how many actually just crashed. Then a couple of days later on the 13th of September, a drone entered Romanian airspace from Ukraine. It was tracked by fighter jets and then it went back into Ukrainian airspace. and then on the 19th three Russian MiG fighter jets violated Estonian airspace for 12 minutes.

3:20Now again this is not the first time this has happened. This is I think the fourth time the Estonians said this has happened this year and this has happened for several years now. But this particular incident was notable for the number of jets, there were three, and the length of time which was 12 minutes that they were in Estonian airspace and they were escorted out by NATO fighters. So those three incidents we know have a Russian connection. We don't know whether they were deliberate or not, but we do know that they were linked to Russia. What's less clear and what is part of a broader pattern of grey zone, hybrid warfare, Russians call it active measures, threats that we're seeing in Europe, threats which are below the threshold of outright military conflict, which you could put the recent incidents that you mentioned with the drones into.

4:15So last week, Monday, Tuesday, we saw several unidentified drones shut down effectively airspace over Copenhagen Airport, which caused major disruption. And they weren't shot down because there were the danger that they could maybe crash into a fuel tank. There's danger to passengers in the terminal. The same evening, a drone was seen over Oslo Airport, which forced all traffic to move to one runway. Just, I think it was a day later, we saw drones flying over four Danish airports, some of which serve as military bases. And at that point, the officials there started really calling these out as a hybrid attack.

4:54They said it was a hybrid attack because all the flights in that case occurred roughly at the same time. And, you know, Mette Friedrichsen, the Danish prime minister, said there's one main country that poses a threat to Europe's security and it's Russia. But, and this is the thing, she did not directly blame these incidents on Russia. And maybe we can talk about this in a minute. This is one of the tricky things. Yeah, okay. So, Emma, so many different types of incursions in so many different countries in so many different formats. You used a term that we've heard before here on the show, gray zone attack.

5:31What does that mean? And I guess the broader question is, in layman's terms, what is Russia up to here? What's a gray zone attack and what are they doing? It's a very good question. So it's a gray zone attack. It's a hybrid attack, those that the phrases used. It's effectively an attack which is below a traditional, in inverted commas, military attack. So these are attacks which are done to destabilize and to really weaken your enemy. And I think it's worth pointing out that the Russians call it active measures or активные мероприятия in Russian. And I think the active is important to note. This isn't a passive kind of thing going on.

6:19This is a very deliberate attempt by the Russian security services, and it's been used by Soviet and Russian security services and the secret police for decades. The principle is not new to destabilize the enemy with espionage, propaganda, assassination and sabotage. Destabilize in what way in this case to force them into decisions about shoot down or not shoot down, cause political crises, look for divisions in the NATO alliance, which are increasingly evident. Is that sort of the point here? Well, the tricky thing here is that we don't know for certain, did Russia indeed send all of those drones that I just mentioned to Europe?

6:59We know that in Poland, those were Russian drones that came in. But the issue is that in Denmark and in Norway and in other parts of Europe, Germany, the UK, we've seen similar incidents. We don't know if Russia is behind it. And that's kind of the point of this attack. And this is really what NATO and the EU is really struggling with, is how do you respond to an attack when you don't know who is behind it? And our systems are built on law and order and on correctly identifying who a perpetrator is before you really call out the individual or the state in question. And so I think many European countries are really struggling with how to call out these threats.

7:45And they are indeed becoming more aggressive at doing so. But this is part of an escalating threat picture. And into that threat picture, I would put as well, not just drones, but we've seen increasing numbers of arson attacks across Europe. We've seen the attempted assassination of the head of a German weapons manufacturer, Rheinmetall. These are all grey zone attacks which have been directly attributed to Russia's military intelligence, the DRU. But the issue with these attacks, and this is where Russia wins with these attacks, is that they drain resources. Whether it's a drone incursion in Denmark, whether it's fighter jets coming over into Estonia, which is much more clear that it's Russia, it drains resources.

8:28it means that Russia, in some cases, you could say wins because they can see NATO's responses and they can test these defenses and they can work out where the weaknesses are. And that's what they're gaining from these incidents. Whether or not they're Russia and whether or not they were intentional, Russia still wins with these sorts of things. Well, Russian MiGs are intentional and Russian MiGs are Russian. So let's drill down on that. It seems like very threatening and dangerous stuff from the outside, Russian MiGs flying over NATO airspace. It sounds to the uneducated person like me, they're inviting an air-to-air missile.

9:10And you said they were just escorted out. Is there a dance to this type of thing, these incursions with real fighter jets that have real missiles? Yeah, I mean, there is a way that's set out to basically deal with these threats. I would say that what we don't know is the point at which when NATO decides to actually engage a threat. And I think that is deliberately kept a vague because you don't tell your enemy at what point you're going to engage them and therefore at what point this is the red line. But the way it works is that in this particular case, the jets came out from northern Russia. They were in the Karelia region in Petrozovodsk in northern Russia.

9:55They came out from a military civilian air base there and then they flew out into the Baltic. They were shadowed by Finnish fighter jets and then they entered Estonian airspace. And then at that point, the Italian Air Force, who are based as part of the NATO mission in Estonia, were scrambled and they were sent up. And the Air Force that's being scrambled remains in contact with a ground station at all times. And so the procedure is basically to radio the aircraft first. And that doesn't make a difference whether it's civilian or military. The procedure is the same. You radio the aircraft. You see if you get a response.

10:39As I understand in this case, in the Russian case, there was no response. And so then you need to visually approach the aircraft to try and identify it. And that includes the type, the tail number, and in this case particularly, whether or not it's carrying a load like any weapons. They fly right up next to it and get eyeballs on that thing. Pretty close. They get eyeballs on it and they rock their wings as well. I'm sure that people have seen some of this where they do the little wing waggle or the wing rock, which basically tells them, pay attention, you're in my area. And then in this case, they escorted them out back into international airspace.

11:17Well, it's fun when it happens in the movies. It is not fun in real life. And it's not meant to be Russian MiG incursions in Estonia. We're also talking about escalating drone attacks across the NATO alliance in Europe. some attributable to Russia, some maybe not, and Europe's difficulty in deciding how to respond. We're going to head into a quick break here. We'll be back with more of the conversation in just a moment. Stay with us.

11:49Let's get back to the conversation now. And Emma, we've gotten a lot of questions about how to defend against these drones, what Europe, NATO on the eastern front, eastern flank, might do to dissuade some of these drones and apparently Russian activities. But before we get to that, the broader picture here, of course, is Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the broader war there. There has been escalating amounts of drone technology, drone attacks in that war in the military context, not the gray zone context. But can you put these these attacks, these gray zone attacks and incursions in the context of the Ukraine war and Europe's evolving posture in that war against Russia?

12:37Yeah, you definitely can. I mean, if these drone attacks in Northern Europe and drone incursions in Northern Europe are shown to be linked to Russia, then you definitely can. I mean, And the goal with Russia's grey zone operation right now is to weaken Western support for Ukraine. And I'm like running a project at the Associated Press tracking this campaign. And it takes a variety of different forms, sabotage, espionage, arson. But the goal is still the same. And it's to create fear and sow division and uncertainty in societies. it's to target specific individuals or businesses which may have links to Ukraine in the hope that they stop perhaps funding Ukraine or stop giving weapons or support to Ukraine and so this is very much part of Russia's war in Ukraine it is the the front that we are facing here in Europe and it has definitely escalated since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 we weren't experiencing in Europe, these types of events with such regularity.

13:46And in so many different countries, the pattern is so similar before, I would say, before the invasion of Ukraine. We're actually getting a lot of questions about how to defend against drones. Perhaps MiG incursions are another issue entirely. But Kevin asks, is Russia trying to start World War III? It seems like they're testing NATO limits. This is very dangerous. And we got this from Matthew, who says, is a no-fly zone still an option? Can we keep Russia from not only sending drones into NATO countries, but also keep them from Ukrainian airspace? Would a no-fly zone apply to drones? Emma, what about it?

14:25I mean, so there are very different questions in a way, what happens inside Ukraine and what happens outside Ukraine. I think realistically, the chances of Western nations imposing a no-fly zone and guaranteeing a no-fly zone over Ukraine at this point are quite slim. That hasn't happened throughout the course of the war. I think at the moment, Western nations, European nations particularly, are thinking about how to help Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire, which frankly looks a very long way away. Outside of Ukraine is a different matter because you can talk about things on the level of the European Union and also the NATO alliance.

15:06The tricky thing about imposing no-fly zones is that they have huge economic cost. And so I was just in the Baltics and I was speaking to the head of the Estonian military about this and he made the point, which was made several times actually in Latvia and Lithuania as well to me, which is it's very hard to defend against drones in peacetime because if you shoot it, it's going to land somewhere and you can't guarantee where it's going to land. If you put in a no-fly zone, that has huge economic consequences. I think also, as well, it's worth pointing out that NATO is very adapt and well-suited to threats, for example, like the MiGs, which entered Estonian airspace.

15:50That's a sort of traditional, conventional threat for NATO. What NATO is not so good at, and this isn't just a NATO problem, this is also a problem that Russia has, Ukraine also to a certain extent, everyone, because this is such a developing field of technology, is the issue is dealing with drones. They are small, they are low-flying, can be low-flying, they can be made out of wood or polystyrene, things that aren't metal, which don't traditionally show up on radars, which are looking for, let's say, a high-speed missile coming in, which is going to be made out of metal. So there are a number of different problems and challenges which NATO nations urgently need to solve in order to defend against drones.

16:37And they've urgently been talking about it. I mean, in the Baltic states that you just mentioned, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, leaders met. I'm sure you're very intimate with this, Emma, talking about building what's called a drone wall to respond to these incursions. It sounds like a drone wall building an electronic or defense wall to keep drones out. It sounds really catchy, doesn't it? Yeah, it sounds catchy, but it also sounds, given what you just told us about drones in the real world, it sounds a little implausible. I mean, yes. I think the idea of a drone wall is or something the defense minister, Sonia defense minister said to me, you know, drones are not mosquitoes.

17:17It's not like there's going to be some invisible shield on the border between Russia and NATO in the Baltics, which if a drone hits it, suddenly it's zapped like a mosquito or it's sort of like bounced off with some invisible force shield. That's not how it works. I think NATO would be very happy if it did work that way, but that's not what happens. there are so many different types of drones to sort of present sort of the threat picture. You've got attack drones, you've got first-person drones, you've got surveillance, reconnaissance. They're different sizes, they're different types. And so defending against these threats requires you to have very kind of layered levels of defenses.

18:02I think there are a number of challenges from the NATO perspective and the EU perspective currently. The first challenge is just identifying it. Most of the drones which went into Poland were not identified. There was a drone which crashed this summer in Estonia in August in Southeast Estonia near where I was, which also was not identified because the head of the Estonian military said they simply just did not have the capability to see it. So there's that. Like number one is identifying your problem because you can't mitigate it if you don't know where it is. Number two is how do you shoot it down, get it out of your airspace?

18:42That again is quite complicated because as I said, imposing flight restrictions has a big economic cost. And also if you shoot a drone down, it's going to go somewhere. So those are kind of defenses that are currently being worked on. In Europe, there are companies which already have this technology. There are jamming guns that they look like kind of almost like black boxes that you could point at a drone and it will jam the connection. Confuse it electronically. Exactly. Speaking with Emma Burroughs, European security correspondent at the Associated Press. We got this message from John. Emma, NATO needs to deliver an explicit response that is understood, not just implied.

19:27And I've read opinions like this from experts elsewhere that sort of say, well, if it's a gray zone attack that causes confusion, division by flying drones, perhaps it's Russia over, you know, Copenhagen airport, Oslo incursions everywhere. Why not respond in kind? A bunch of drones over the airport in St. Petersburg might do the trick for deterrence. I mean, if you put that to NATO officials, they would tell you that NATO is a defensive organization and does not carry out that kind of activity. So that's, I think, the first point. The second point is that you can respond to this with escalation, but that's very difficult for officials in NATO and Europe, especially if they cannot with 100 % certainty say this was Russia.

20:20And just to be clear, that's kind of the way that Russia acts so that you cannot say for certain, this is Russia, this wasn't Russia. That's kind of their modus operandi, but it makes it very, very difficult for officials to respond. And then you also have to think how, okay, let's say you do respond in that way, you respond with escalation. What happens then when Russia escalates further? Because at some point you're going to run out of road in which you can respond with escalation. And I think NATO officials are very mindful of that. And they're mindful that the organization is a defensive alliance.

21:03And, you know, if they respond with aggression, that narrows their potential options for use in the future. Well, everything you described seems to be things that Vladimir Putin and whoever else are doing these gray zone attacks also know. The dangers of escalation and the decisions of making a credible response. That's why it's a gray zone attack, because it raises all of these questions. And really, for an alliance like NATO, there's no good answer. Emma Burroughs, I want to thank you for all of your reporting and for spending this time with us. Really enlightening. Emma Burroughs is European security correspondent for the AP in London.

21:42Thanks, Emma. Thank you. Today's producer was Michael Falero, and this program comes to you from WAMU, part of American University in Washington. It's distributed by NPR. I'm Todd Zwillick. This is 1A.

22:12support for npr and the following message come from the william and flora hewlett foundation investing in creative thinkers and problem solvers who help people communities and the planet flourish more information is available at hewlett.org