Countdown to Midterms: 3 Weeks to Go

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1:05With just three weeks left in the campaign, every day counts. And for the president, this one might count as a doozy. Nearly eight hours on a plane to a state that should be safely read in the first place with a hand-picked new press secretary who's being panned for her debut performance, a performance that included the political whacking of his former future daughter-in-law for asking a donor to foot her$100 ,000 Amex bill. John Berman here, in for Anderson. And this is midterms 2026, countdown to election night. The president is in Alaska, where you might be able to see Russia from your house, but it is telling that he's spending one of his remaining 21 days there at all.

1:45No other voters in bordering states to hear his message, unless eastern Russia counts. Then again, it's not like the president had the best of all days to have his message heard. It began, as we said, with his new press secretary breaking the awkward news that Kimberly Guilfoyle, his scandal-prone Greek ambassador, was through. The president said yesterday to reporters that he is considering firing her. Do you know a timeline for that and also potentially who could be on the shortlist to replace her if he does? We have asked Ambassador Guilfoyle to resign. She has been a wonderful asset to the team and we wish her well.

2:24Okay. Okay. So there was that. And not long after that, the press secretary herself became the story. Reviews of her performance started coming in, and not just from critics and pundits, but more to the point, from inside the White House. One official called her debut, quote, brutal. Others described it as unusual, awkward, stilted, and at times uncomfortable. Some other comments, why did they put her out there so quickly? and, quote, literally zero reason to put her out on her second day unprepared. Again, that's from inside the White House. She spoke for 14 minutes and called on just three reporters, so there was that too.

3:03The president, on the other hand, said he thought that she was, in his words, very good. He also acknowledged that Alaska was a long way to travel, but said it was worth it to help incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan. He is stumping for a candidate who won re-election in 2020 by nearly 13 points, And it has been this way throughout the race so far, stop after stop in one red state after another, trying to boost candidates who once might have been shoe-ins. And as we reported last night, even some Republicans wish he would just stay away instead of insisting, as he does at most stops, that voters pretend that he is on the ballot, 33%, 34 % job approval, 4-plus dollar a gallon gas and all.

3:42And the perception among voters, fair or not and true or not, that he is less focused on that and more on other things. Does anybody want to see a great work of art, a great thing of beauty? Absolutely. The helipad, right? The helipad has got unbelievable architecture reviews, but that's nothing compared to what's being built. You see those cranes? They're the most powerful cranes in the world. They're lifting up massive steel beams. There's one on each side. CNN's Kristen Holmes is traveling with the president. She joins us from Wasilla, Alaska. Kristen, what message does the president have for voters in Alaska tonight?

4:28Well, President Trump is going to double down on the message you just laid out, which is pretend I am on the ballot. And it is stunning, John, that he is here three weeks before this election. This is a state that hasn't backed a Democrat or Senate in nearly 20 years. And yet he is spending all of this time on a plane just for, what, two hours to support the incumbent senator, Dan Sullivan, in this race. Now, we've seen a lot of Republican candidates kind of shy away from Donald Trump. That is not what we have seen from Senator Sullivan. He was up here moments ago talking about how great Donald Trump was.

4:59We know that he supported the war in Iran, saying that it's something that had to be done. He's voted against the War Powers Act. And he even at times has said the economy will bounce back after this war in Iran is over. He was standing next to President Trump in the Oval Office a few weeks ago when they announced that deal with South Korea, talking about the natural gas pipeline, which, of course, has had some dispute around it. But it just goes to show you that they really believe that President Trump is popular here, that he has that enthusiasm level. And if they can drive out the voters by bringing him here, then they can actually get some of those Republicans who might have sat on the couch instead out to the ballot box in November.

5:37And one thing, John, that we cannot let lie is the fact that this time around, because of Alaska's unique voting structure, there are two Dan Sullivans on the ballot. One is the incumbent. The other is a retired school teacher. We talked to a lot of voters here who are worried about that confusion as well. The president is there for Dan Sullivan, not Dan Sullivan. Kristen Holmes, thank you for joining us from Wasilla. A lot to get to tonight. I want to bring in our political panel who will be with me throughout the hour. former senior advisor to President Obama, David Axelrod, former Biden White House Press Secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, former Michigan Republican Congressman Peter Meyer, and CNN political commentator and New York Daily News columnist, S.E.

6:17Cupp. Let's get the party started. David, first to you. I've heard you say elsewhere, right, that if the president was trying to tank Republican chances, he wouldn't be doing much differently than he is. Yeah, I don't think he's trying to defeat Republicans, but if he were, I don't think he'd be doing much differently than he is. I mean, almost everything that's happened recently has conspired against them in ways that they are now burdened by. And now he's sprinting around trying to get people who are feeling a little disillusioned to come out and vote people in his own base. But it's a risky it's a risky strategy.

6:56It may be the only one open to him. Exactly. And on that point, Corrine, you've been in a White House, the first Obama White House, the Biden White House. during the first midterms when the president's popularity was sagging. Got to go somewhere, right? Why not Alaska? Right, got to go somewhere. Look, he's clearly trying to nationalize this race, trying to make sure that people think or believe or convince people that he's on the ballot. But look, I think this is great. If anything, the DNC should be paying for these trips, because if you think about it, he's deeply underwater, just unpopular across the board in some of these deep red states.

7:27And what he's doing is he's actually incentivizing, I think it's going to be more Democrats, independent voters are going to be more incentivized to come out than Republicans. So this is like an in-kind contribution to Democrats, what he's doing. But there are Republicans in Alaska. I mean, there are. But remember, he he is reminding people by being out there. I mean, some Republicans have even said we don't want you here. They've turned his back on their backs on him. And so I think he's reminding people of how unpopular he is. And it's going to turn against him. Let me say what you want about Donald Trump, but I'm not sure anyone needs reminding that he's president.

8:05I think they get that reminder every day in every which way. This is Alaska. You've got some experience in Michigan, since that's where you were a congressman. If you were running for reelection now, would you have him to your district? If my state went for Donald Trump in 2024 by 13, 14 points, like both Alaska and Kansas, and I had any concerns, I would want him there campaigning. I would want him there getting folks out. To Karine's point, I don't think it's an in-kind contribution from the DNC. I don't think, frankly, with their cash balance, they could afford it right now, but that's maybe a separate matter.

8:32But right now, but it's not about persuasion in many of these races. I mean, it's 100 percent about driving that turnout. If we have similar turnout to 2024, not a problem at all. That is the goal. Get Trump out there. Have those voters who are maybe sitting there to to a point who are on the couch, not decided that they're going to go out yet. You want those low propensity folks to come out, cast that ballot for the right Dan Sullivan. Kansas and Alaska, you brought up, you assiduously avoided Michigan. Would you have a Michigan campaign for you? Depending my district? No. If I was running for Congress, Mike Rogers, I would want him in parts of Macomb County.

9:11I would want him to come. I think he's planning a stop in Marysville. I would want him in places that turned out heavily for Trump, but maybe has sat out midterm elections historically. You hear from Democrats around the country, and I think from this side of the table tonight, you heard or felt at least a little bit of optimism from the Democratic side. But a lot of these Senate races are still polling within the margin of error, right? Do you think there's too much more of the words that are tossed out there in the newsletters? Hopium out there for Democrats right now? Yeah, I mean, to your question, there are a lot of Republicans in Alaska.

9:39I've been there many times. I will note Trump didn't go to Alaska in 2024 for his own reelection bid. OK, he's having to go to campaign for Dan Sullivan and a bunch of candidates most people have never heard of because they are in trouble. These candidates are completely boxed in by Trump's war and tariffs. There's nowhere for them to go. They're like mimes and boxes. They can't they can't get out. And so you're seeing them try to I'm going to I'm going to pivot this way and I'm going to say this about it. But they really are boxed in by these two these two things. And so Trump is having to travel to these deep red places where he normally wouldn't.

10:14And honestly, if I'm a Susan Collins, if I'm a John Husted, if I'm a Mike Rogers, I am angry. I am angry that a Ken Paxton is taking my money that I could be using on my race. I'm angry that Trump is having to travel all around to these deep red places to shore up South Carolina and Alaska. This was all of Trump's doing. And I'd be pretty mad if I were a Republican running. I thought you were going to say that if you were Husted, you'd be mad that he was ogling his rear end. Did you see that yesterday? No comment. Anyway, sorry, I digress. Literally below the belt there. Does Dan Sullivan need to watch his back, quite literally, in Alaska tonight, based on what Donald Trump said last night in Ohio?

11:05I mean, you never know. That's the bottom line. Do you think the president's on point? Sorry. Do you think that was? Come on. Oh, are we on the air here? It bends. It's funny if it breaks. Do you think that the president's unpopularity is enough, David, for the Democrats? Well, look, midterm elections are almost always, I would say always, a referendum on the person in the White House. That's why, and rarely do people in the White House benefit from that. It's a way for people who express their unhappiness about whatever they're unhappy about at that moment. And there's a lot of unhappiness out there.

11:41You know, we've had in the past in 2006, Democrats had the six for six. And there have been other attempts to kind of unify a message. But I think Democrats have communicated a message that, well, certainly that they would end the war, but also on health care and some of the other issues that concern people. But this is Donald Trump likes things to be about him. This is about him. And and that's their problem. All right. Everyone stick around with us right now. We have our eye on Alaska. Next, more on Kimberly Guilfoyle's departure and the cold shoulder she got from the president and the new press secretary getting harsh reviews from some of her White House colleagues, but doling out kind words for the boss.

12:23I want to thank President Trump for his trust that he has placed in me. I have wanted to work for him for a very long time.

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13:42As the president left Washington for tonight's Alaska rally, He weighed in on the woman who was engaged to his son, Don Jr., for nearly four years, but was his ambassador to Greece for less than 13 months. No, she wasn't a member of my family. She, I guess, dated my son a long time ago, but she wasn't. No, she went to Greece. She was doing a good job, but we didn't like what we were reading. Until 2024, and you'd think he barely knew her. In fact, for years, she was almost family. And until recently, the president had nothing but kind words for her. Kimberly Guilfoyle has been my friend for a long time.

14:22I love calling it Kimberly. That's my little pet name, right? But you are the greatest. And I heard they love you over there. That was in March, long before a MAGA donor came forward with texts of her begging him for$100 ,000 to pay off her Amex bill. And subsequent texts scolding him for not doing enough to keep anyone from finding out about it. Today, the world found out she was about to be gone from the president's new press secretary and not really in some carefully crafted announcement either. The president said yesterday to reporters that he is considering firing her. Do you know a timeline for that and also potentially who could be on the short list to replace her if he does?

15:03We have asked Ambassador Guilfoyle to resign. As we mentioned at the top, this was Katie Zechariah's debut press conference. And the reviews, even from some inside the White House, were pretty harsh. Brutal is how one official put it there. It lasted only about 14 minutes and more than half of it spent singing the praises of her boss and his rallies. He is an energetic president. Attendance is at record highs as enthusiastic, hardworking Americans are lining up and packing arenas to support President Trump and Republicans. CNN Chief White House Correspondent and Anchor of The Source, Caitlin Collins, joins us now.

15:44You were there, Caitlin. But let me start with Kimberly Guilfoyle. What can you tell us about the president's decision to push her out? Well, it's not really that surprising to Trump officials that I spoke with, John, who just were looking at that report from The Wall Street Journal that included screenshots of those messages. the veracity of the messages which Kimberly Guilfoyle had been casting doubt on, we are told, in conversations that she was having with Trump allies in recent days. But it became a big point of frustration for the Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is held in high regard in President Trump's eyes and in the eyes of West Wing senior officials.

16:20And so that really became a huge problem here in terms of this, especially with the timing of that story happening right as Secretary of State Rubio was just in Greece a few days ago, was greeted on the tarmac by Kimberly Guilfoyle. And it eventually became to a point today where the White House felt that it was a distraction and that they were not sure what a State Department internal review of those messages would find and what it would turn up. And so that was really what led to this today. But it was remarkable to hear the president distance himself from Kimberly Guilfoyle. And I've even been talking to some people in Trump world today who noted that she's still denying these allegations as she did in her statement.

16:57She said nice things about Trump, but also she is someone who did date Donald Trump Jr. She did spend a lot of time at Mar-a-Lago and in Trump world. And there were some people I talked to today, John, who were talking about the fact that she knows a lot about what has happened in Trump world. And so they were kind of surprised by how the president distanced himself from her today. You were in the room for this initial press conference with Katie Zachariah. What was the reaction there? And what are you hearing from your sources inside the White House? I mean, I've attended a lot of White House press briefings, John, and I'm not sure I've ever seen anything like that.

17:29And I think most people in the room, I mean, there were audible gasps in the room as she closed her binder and prepared to leave and said those were all the questions she would be taking after only taking three questions, because I think most people in that room thought that it would be a normal length press briefing, which typically goes 45 minutes, even potentially up to an hour, especially after, you know, 10 minutes of prepared remarks that she was reading from when she came out to the lectern. And so I think it surprised a lot of people in there, especially given the president was insistent on her holding a press briefing.

18:02She met with the president, John, before she came out to the briefing today. I mean, you would assume that was so she could answer questions from reporters about Kimberly Guilfoyle and many other topics. And so it was pretty surprising. And almost immediately, John, I was getting texts from people who work inside the Trump administration, inside the White House, who were surprised by how fleeting the appearance was and just, you know, how it was conducted and the fact that she didn't really take any questions from reporters who were there in the room beyond those three initial ones, which was only five and a half minutes of questions, John.

18:36And so, I mean, White House officials who know what Trump likes in a press secretary were texting me predicting that she would not last in this position very long. Obviously, we don't know, and that's up to the president. But it also comes as there's questions about, you know, her past statements that she's an attorney. And she was asked, you know, did you ever take the bar? Where did she where did you take the bar? She answered that she moved to China. And we've asked the White House for clarification on that. They have not provided any evidence of her ever having taken the bar, despite claiming that she is an attorney, though she did go to law school.

19:08But obviously, there's certainly a distinction there, John. Yeah, there is. And we'll have to learn more about that if it is forthcoming. Caitlin Collins, thank you very much. We're going to see you at the top of the next hour for The Source. David Axelrod, I want to start with the Kimberly Guilfoyle news. Does this stop the bleeding or is this a bit of a gusher that's going to, you know, put the whiff of scandal out there for the remaining 21 days? Yeah, she went from Kimberly to Kimberly laid off in just like a beat of an eye. I'm just getting them all out here. I honestly don't know how much the average American is dwelling on Kimberly Guilfoyle.

19:43I don't think this is their principal concern. I'll tell you something, though. A lot of what's happened the last few weeks has been sort of stunning. The questions are like, who's in charge here? Like, who's minding the store? Secretary of Defense goes out and announces they're going to have public executions. No one in the White House was consulted on this. No one might have said, you know what? that's actually not what we do. We're not going to do that. And we're certainly not going to announce that in the middle of a political campaign. Press secretary goes out there. I actually want to extend some grace to her insofar as and you know this better than anybody on this panel.

20:25No press secretary goes out there without real preparation before every session and certainly a new press secretary. And to throw her out there, it's as if the president thought, well, this is just like an appearance on Fox News. She'll do great. And it's not like that at all. I mean, you know what? Yeah, it really is. I think there's certainly a misconception here. It's like it is one of the hardest jobs in Washington, D.C. and you have to prepare and it takes months and weeks, sometimes, you know, you know, longer than that, depending on on when you come in to get ready for it. I remember when I was White House press secretary, it took me four hours every day to prep with my team.

21:06It took me weeks before I went to the podium the first time as a principal deputy press secretary. And you do you you are standing in front, not just the briefing room, but it's sort of the world. You know, leaders are listening into the press briefing to hear what you're saying about foreign policy, policy more broadly. And so it is, you know, you cannot just go in there not prepared. And so what I saw today was odd. I've never seen anything like this. She took, what, three, four questions, whatever it was, less than 15 minutes. I mean, when we did press briefings, you were in there for 40 to 60 minutes.

21:42You took dozens of questions, sometimes the same questions over and over again. And it is a difficult job. It is not easy. And you have to be prepared. And even with all the preparation, you still have some mishaps. If I could just append one point. I mean, everyone who works in the White House as a senior level who speaks to the media understands that your words can send armies marching and markets tumbling. Exactly. And you better be careful about what you say and know what you want to say. Exactly. I mean, I used to worry about that. OK, I don't want to start any wars and I don't want to mess with the, you know, mess with the economy.

22:17And it is there are all these things that you're thinking about and trying to be incredibly purposeful and thoughtful about it. But it takes time and it takes preparation. I do want to get one more bite of Kimberly Guilfoyle because I see you worked with her at Fox News. I mean, how surprised are you that it ended this way for her? Not a little bit. Not even a little bit. No, listen, I did. I worked with Kimberly. We spent a lot of time together. And without psychologizing too much, she just always seemed a bit like a little girl lost. She was really wanted attention. She wanted male validation a lot.

22:53I mean, this is like I saw a lot of this and she wanted to be wherever the power and the attention were. And so I wasn't surprised when she left to go with Trump. I wasn't surprised when she started dating Don Jr. I wasn't surprised when they broke up. I wasn't surprised when she was sort of exiled to Greece. Like none of this was surprising. And I'm not surprised she got caught up in these allegations, if true, because absolute power corrupts absolutely. And this is a corrupting ecosystem that she was constantly in, whether it was at the White House or at Mar-a-Lago in Trump world. It's corrupting.

23:29And I'll just say, I don't feel bad for Kim at all, but there's a little double standard here. A lot of people did and do what Kimberly is alleged to have done. On the record, like we know that they did it, right? And she's the one that gets whacked for it. And, you know, I'm not I don't know if it's like it's like it's the women. It's the you know, it does feel like a lot of the guys went to jail, but that was in the Biden administration. I'm talking about what we're taking. We got much more to discuss on this and so much else, including Armand Arraju talking to both candidates in the shockingly tight Senate race in Kansas, which is not elected Democratic senator since 1932.

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24:50Right 21 days just three weeks to the midterms and we are tracking key races that could decide the balance of power on Capitol Hill and that includes a battle in Kansas of all places where polls show Republican incumbent Senator Roger Marshall is in a tight race against the Democrat Adam Hamilton. Armando Raju joins us now he's been traveling across that state and spoke with both candidates in money. Let's start with Senator Marshall on the campaign trail today. What did he have to say? Well, I wanted to ask him about what is confronting him in this race, which is the rise in fuel prices caused in large part by the Iran war, a big reason why he is in political trouble right now heading into this November, this neck-and-neck race, and whether it was time to end the war with Iran.

25:32But he pointed to a totally different issue, John, this involving a child abuse scandal that occurred at a church that Adam Hamilton, who's a pastor of a megachurch here in Kansas, at a youth camp affiliated with that church, that child sex abuse scandal that happened two decades ago. He's accusing Hamilton of covering up that scandal. Hamilton pointedly denies that. In fact, local press has investigated this and have actually backed up Hamilton's claims, looking at court records involving this case. But nevertheless, when I asked Marshall about this, he made it very clear that he didn't really want to talk about Iran, but wanted to talk about this scandal from the past.

26:12Do you think that given the impact that it's having on fuel prices that it's time for the president to end the war? You know, I think what you should be talking about is my opponent, that he's a child sex predator protector, that he's protected a predator for kids. It absolutely happened. No, I think you guys need to talk about something that the Kansans want to be talking about. I've given you my comments on Iran before. Look, I want this war to be over as quickly as possible. I don't want to lose any soldiers, any more soldiers like Eisenhower. I hate war.

26:50And, of course, Marshall has had multiple opportunities to vote to call for an end to the Iran war, but has voted against those efforts to end the Iran war. President Trump is coming here next week to campaign for Marshall. In fact, has echoed those accusations against Hamilton on the campaign trail. And this is what Hamilton told me just yesterday when I asked him about the accusations the president has made against Hamilton and his stewardship of the church. He said Hamilton dismissed their concerns, refused to call the police, and brought this person back to camp the next year. He was caught again.

27:22He said, quote, disgusting. This is the president of the United States who just said that. Yeah, the president's lying, and he's twisting the truth around. And every organization that looked into these claims four months ago said the same thing. This is a misrepresentation of what happened. It's sad and tragic. Would you have done anything differently in that situation? Absolutely. Like, we should have called the police immediately, but that was not our policies 21 years ago. And it was not completely clear exactly what happened or who had done it. And Hamilton told me that, in his view, that these attacks that he's being faced with in these final days, John, are an effort to distort and distract from the issues involving the economy, involving the Iran war, involving diesel prices and involving gas.

28:06We appear to have lost Manu there in Kansas, but we thank him for that report. And it leads me to this very complicated question I have for you, Congressman. Kansas? What's the matter with Kansas? So Kansas, again, 2024, Trump won it by 13 points. There's a Democratic governor. She was elected in the 2018 cycle, which was a fantastic midterm for Democrats in Trump's first term. So, you know, it's a state that I think in a massively optimistic scenario for Dems is within reach. Every hundred years or so, they elect a Democrat to the Senate. It hasn't happened in a hundred years. You know, that's why you get insurance for a hundred year weather events.

28:43So I think that what you're looking at right now is you're seeing a president who says, OK, you know what? I see my margins at 24. If I can get folks out, we've got to motivate the base. We've got to motivate that turnout. But frankly, I also think that you just have a case of Republicans getting the yips across the board because all we have to go off of is data. And the only data is polling. And the polling is not great. But they're also in that state campaigning every day, hearing from voters. And, Essie, what did you hear in Roger Marshall's voice there and in the shift in what he was asked?

29:15He was asked about gas prices. And Roger Marshall said, why don't you ask about something Kansas care about? Isn't that exactly what they care about? Yeah, that little thing called gas prices that no one's talking about. That is the thing that everyone is talking about. And it's crazy because for all the deflection, voters don't need us to point this out, right? Like, they know what they're seeing at the pump, in the grocery stores. They know why they're going to the polls. They know what they're doing. So these deflection attempts are silly. But I'll say it again. These guys are boxed in. they cannot get away from the war on tariffs.

29:51Susan Collins saying, well, I know, I know there were tariffs, but I fought to save road salt. And Troy Jackson in Maine saying, yeah, we can't eat road salt, right? Mike Rogers saying, well, I didn't, I'm not totally, I want this war to end, but like, you can't get out of this box that Trump put all of these candidates in. And so even in Kansas. These guys are in trouble. And I think to your point, you know, Trump is the double-edged sword. There are voters for whom he's the only reason they'll go out and vote. So they know the negatives that he carries in these states, but their only hope at this point is, well, we hope every loyal Trump supporter just wants to go out for him.

30:35Right. Hang on one second, guys. We'll be right back. Talk about this and more. Up next, John King in North Carolina, red in the last three presidential elections, but is looking pretty blue this time around in some races.

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31:52Tonight, as we count down to the midterms, John King returns to North Carolina to talk with voters about some critical races there in a state that the president won three times among the matchups to watch the showdown for the U.S. Senate with former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper facing off against Michael Watley, the former chair of the Republican Party. Here's John's latest All Over the Map report. Up before the sun, a crisp fall morning wrapped in a thick blanket of fog. Baby! Robert Russell breaks the silence. Baby! A wake-up call in Appalachia. We'll be in business here in a couple of minutes.

32:30It takes a bit, but then remarkable precision. The goats emerge from the hillside, wander down, and line up. They come at their pace, right? That's pretty much it. So they wake up and the first thing they want to do is eat. Milking comes first on Russell's long list of daily chores. Oh, sorry. Busy, but patient with a novice. Yeah, she says new guy. There we go. Okay, now you're good. All right. Pigs to feed, chickens to check on, and yes, baby goats to break up the chores with some morning joy. 50 acres, days that run 19 hours, a small farm barely breaking even. Yeah, from the outside, that's a life that you would never want to live.

33:16But, I mean, I can tell you that in 10 years, I've never had a single moment when I've regretted doing, taking this step. Leister is Western North Carolina, the Blue Ridge Mountains, rugged, rural, Republican. Yet this fall, full of these, perhaps another wake-up call. Roy Cooper is the Democrat now favored to flip a Republican Senate seat. Jamie Egger, a farmer, and a Democrat hoping to flip a deep red House seat. Russell is an independent, tired of rising prices, tired of broken promises. I'm not particularly happy. You know, I think that a lot of stuff that was implied or promised has kind of been backtracked, walked back.

34:05And that's, you know, that's frustrating. Like what? No wars. That's a big one. Inclined to vote for change, but not sure yet. Not sure because he doubts even giant change in Washington will help him. The government is not interested and is not set up to help small farmers. I don't have any hope that there's going to be any possible change in Washington that's going to affect and benefit me. That's a recurring theme of our travels here and in many rural communities where people feel forgotten. Abby Norton is the mayor of Tiny Hot Springs, population 600. Not a politician, she insists. not one who believes replacing Republicans with Democrats in Congress will change much.

34:52There are going to be people out there who think I'm just totally crazy, but no, I don't think it's going to affect the way we live and the way that we work. This is Marshall, about 15 miles upriver from Hot Springs. The floodwaters here rose 27 feet. Ready to start the adventure? I'm ready. I am ready. I am excited. It's a beautiful day. Corry Hampton's outdoor adventure business offers rafting, rappelling, zip lining, and bike tours through the spectacular countryside. The floodwaters changed the path of the French Broad River. Homes alongside it are still being rebuilt. It was not a good summer.

35:26It's hard to know how much of that is still storm-related and how much of that is because people aren't sure if they should spend money to go out to eat or to go on a family vacation. AMNA NAWAZ, President of the United States, Hampton and good friend Josh Kopris are Democrats. They know they're outnumbered here. Trump won 61 percent of the vote in Madison County. But both believe eight months of a war the president said would be over in weeks is changing minds here. A direct impact of the war is that fuel costs more. And I don't have a way around using fuel. I live and run a business in a rural town that's 30, 45 minutes from where my guests are and my locations where we go on outdoor adventures are 45 an hour plus out into you know the remote wilderness.

36:19This isn't the only North Carolina house race critical to the balance of power in Washington. A second is 400 miles east along North Carolina's Atlantic coast. It's a big late campaign question because the president's poll numbers are simply so bad. Are Democrats going to have a good midterm election night or is there a big blue wave brewing? Well, where I'm standing right now will be a big part of the answer. This is North Carolina's first congressional district. Democrat Don Davis is the incumbent. Back in 2024, Congressman Davis narrowly won re-election, but at the same time, President Trump carried his district by three points.

36:53So Don Davis was going to be a top Republican target this year anyway. But then North Carolina Republicans redrew the lines. They took away from the district several predominantly black Democratic counties, and they added a handful of Republican counties like this one. under the new lines, President Trump would have carried the district by 11 points. So by that new math, in 2026, Congressman Davis should be toast, right? Lori Buckhout is the Republican candidate. It's a side charger. Nick McFerrin bought this gun shop in Moorhead City 10 years ago, says business is pretty good. His politics could not be clearer.

37:28What is it you like about him? What's not to like about him? I think he's straightforward. I like what he does. He's confident Republicans will turn out and flip the House seat. Constantly people talk about the election. I think definitely she will win. Moorhead City is in Carteret County. Trump won 71 percent here two years ago. Local Democrats, though, insist that even here, the midterm mood is change. We're going to roll it blue. People are angry. They're ready for a change. Remember, looks can be deceiving. A room full of excited Democrats on a weeknight is impressive, yes. But the math around here in recent years is pretty lopsided in favor of the other party.

38:11But it is worth listening. Among those on hand are several local candidates who suddenly think maybe they can flip seats in the Republican legislature. Lisa Holman is in charge of getting out the vote for them and for Congressman Davis. All insist the fall mood here is very different from the spring. I just talked to several people on the phone bank today. And they go, I cannot wait to get to the polls. I cannot wait. We weren't seeing and hearing that back in May initially. It was like, yeah, no. And so blue wave, yeah, I really am feeling the blue wave. Be skeptical, especially when it comes to this house race.

38:49But North Carolina hugging the Atlantic coast has two big pluses. One, it's gorgeous. And on election night, it gives us a giant early test of the midterm blue wave debate.

39:05And that's North Carolina from there to Texas, where John King is tonight. Texas, of course, the home where we're going to see a town hall tomorrow with James Tallarico, a hugely consequential Senate race. How's the math looking right now in control of the Senate? It is fascinating, John. You're just talking to Manu Raju in Kansas. Tells you just about everything you need to know. Democrats believe they have more options on the menu. That does not mean they have more easy races. All of them are difficult. Let's go through the math. We have the mini magic wall with us on the road. Look, the Democrats believe they have this race in North Carolina we just talked about.

39:37You see the math at the top would be changing. They need to win Maine. That's a tough race. We'll come back to that in a second. But that has been the top priority for Democrats all cycle because Kamala Harris carried Maine back in the presidential race. So that would get, if you get North Carolina or Maine, that gets you to 49, right? And so where do you get the rest of them? I talked to a Republican pollster today, a very good one, who thinks that Ohio is going to switch. Again, that's not guaranteed. It's a close race, but Democrats are feeling better about that one. That gets you to 50-50.

40:02Let's assume that happens. And remember, that's a hypothetical. Then, John, where are we? Really? It's been 38 years since a Democrat won a Senate seat in Texas. What about Alaska? That's on the map as well. And Iowa. And Kansas. There are some Democrats talking about North Carolina. All would be incredibly hard races. Even the hypotheticals I gave would be hard races. And then what happens, John? What happens if this happens? What if the Democrats don't get this one? What happens if they lose Michigan? So you see the numbers going back and forth. The big headline, though, is as we get into these final 21 days, the Democrats have a list of five, six or seven options.

40:39Back at the beginning of the year, they thought they had a very, very narrow path to the Senate. Now they think still difficult, but a much bigger menu. Yeah, it's not an inside straight exactly anymore, but close, but close to that. John King in Texas tonight. Thank you very much. Coming up, much more on Texas, including a fresh controversy for the Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, who the Wall Street Journal reports partied in Dubai with two fugitives from American justice and a woman who wasn't his wife. And Vice President Vance was in Texas trying to shore Paxton up.

41:19a new controversy for texas republican senate candidate ken paxton the wall street journal is reporting that a video shows him at a new year's eve 2024 celebration in dubai where he is partying with a woman who was not his wife and two fugitives from u.s justice the senior advisor to paxton did not directly address the dubai trip but told the wall street journal like president trump ken Ken Paxton has been politically persecuted for years, and every time voters have seen through it and sent him back to office because they know that he has always fought for Texas. All right, Karine, the incremental rate of return on scandal for Ken Paxton, how much does he was impeached by his own party in Texas?

42:00How much does something like this matter with three weeks to go until election? I mean, look, John, Paxton is going to go down as one of the worst candidates, statewide candidates that we've ever seen, which is saying a lot because we've had candidates who had to declare themselves not witches. I mean, that's how bad this guy is. And you just laid out one of the things that showed how, you know, how how bad of a candidate he was. You know, he has they knew how bad he was. He has he has done things that are that are insane and still they stayed with him. They stayed with him like Donald Trump went in and said, this is my guy and went down the rabbit hole.

42:39And now they're going to have to spend tens of millions of dollars in Texas, in Texas, and not spend any of that money in the battleground state. And so, look, you know, this is one of the races that you look at where you see which party is playing offense and which party is playing defense. When you look at how insane, insane that the Republican Party have to come in and say, this guy, rescue the seat. Peter, and yet it is Texas. And yet, you know, Texas is littered with people who have counted Ken Paxton out. And Ken Paxton has survived. I mean, to your point in the incremental rate of return, what do we know?

43:19He's palling around with folks who have run afoul of the law. Fugitives from justice. Who are now back in the U.S. facing their charges. Indicted and facing charges. I mean, the first thing I saw when I saw this was like, he spent 4th of July, America's 250th, in London. Please don't tell me this was like the last, this was last weekend. This was five months before he declared his campaign. But I just, I don't know that this is really going to change minds. because I don't think at any point Ken Paxton's campaign has been about how fantastic Ken Paxton is. I think the president has said as much.

43:51I mean, this is really a referendum on James Tallarico. That is what the airwaves are going to be covering. I mean, the president said really nice things about Ken Paxton like this. Listen. Ken Paxton, you might not like the way he dresses. And I say this, it's so insulting to him, but I might as well say it. You might not like the way he looks. You might not love his look. He may not dress right. He may not talk exactly perfectly, and he may not be the best looking guy I've ever seen. I don't like the way Ken... dresses. I don't really like the way Ken talks. I don't really like the way he looks.

44:26I don't like it. Ken Paxton was at my side more than anybody, and I have to always remember that, because he could be a pain in the ass sometimes, I'll be honest. Is he here, by the way? We gotta get this guy elected. Maybe Izzy here, by the way, drawing the biggest applause. If he keeps it up, he won't be there for long. Okay. James Tallarico doing his town hall on CNN tomorrow night. What does he need to do? Look, I think he has a chance to articulate his message without any, because he wouldn't debate. Paxton won't debate. He's got an opportunity to articulate his message. He'll get some challenging questions.

45:00He'll be prepared for them. But as you say, the strategy for Paxton is let's just caricature Tallarico and try and make him the issue. I don't think that they'll succeed. But tomorrow night he can disabuse people of everything that they're seeing in these Republican attack. I just want to know from Republicans, is this guy worth it? Is this guy worth$300 million that they're going to have to spend in Texas that they're going to end up spending? is this worth it all because Donald Trump's feelings were hurt by John Cornyn over Jan 6th I mean it makes no sense I said earlier if I were Susan Collins or my I'd be mad that the president this is what they were warned that it would take hundreds of millions of dollars to get Paxton across the border because he is a walking liability it's not just Texas that Ken Paxton is jeopardizing.

45:58He is jeopardizing every Republican race around the country. Peter, you got 10 seconds to answer the question. Is it worth it? Was it worth it? John Cornyn was going to lose without Donald Trump's intervention to save him. Yeah, that's what they wanted. No, I don't think so. All right. We'll see. We'll leave that question lingering. And thank you to everyone on the panel. And then this quick reminder, it is happening here tomorrow night at 8 p.m. Eastern. Erin Burnett moderates the CNN in Jubilee Media Town Hall in Texas with Senate candidate James Tallarico. that's here on CNN and streaming live with an all-access subscription.

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