Tonight: CNN Town Hall with TX Dem. Sen. Candidate James Talarico

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1:15Good evening. They say everything's bigger in Texas tonight. Just an hour from now, nothing will be bigger in midterm politics than the town hall that CNN and Jubilee Media are hosting with James Tallarico. You're looking at the venue right there in Fort Worth where people People are getting seated, waiting to hear from the candidate, who now stands an essentially even chance of becoming the state's first Democratic senator since 1993, and whose victory could hand control the Senate to Democrats for the last two years of the Trump administration. Two new polls tonight show him statistically tied with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

1:46And though Paxton's impeaching helped him with some voters, would also hurt some popularity of the president, who pushed for him to be the candidate. President Trump is continuing his tour of states he won in 2024, this time Arizona and Deep Red, Montana. At every stop, he's been telling voters to pretend he's on the ballot at the very moment that his job approval has been reaching historic lows. And inflation is climbing in the wake of the deeply unpopular war he started with Iran. The latest numbers out today showed inflation rising to 3.7 percent, which is rising faster than expected. And the last inflation numbers voters will see before Election Day, none of which is ever good news for the party in power.

2:27But this time that bad news, which voters can see with their own eyes at the pump, the checkout camp, the doctor's office, being met by claims like these false claims from the president. All your prices have been tumbling down. Prices are coming down very fast. Oil is coming down. The inflation's down. You know, we're bringing prices way down. But every time I go out, the fake news goes affordability, meaning like I'm causing high price. No, I'm bringing the high prices down that they cause. The words of a man who says he wants voters to pretend that he is on the ballot, telling them things they see with their eyes are not true.

3:06Inflation not down. It's prices not coming down. They're going up. Oil not coming down. It was dollar six. It was dollar one or six dollars, one hundred and six dollars a barrel today. None of what you heard him say there was true. Today in Arizona, he continued painting a picture for voters that most now neither see nor feel. The golden age of America, and that's where we are right now, we're in the golden age. And despite all of the obstruction from radical left lunatics, our nation is doing better now than it has ever done before. Voters, according to polling at least, do not seem to see it that way.

3:46Just 33 percent of them in recent CNN polling believe he's doing a good job. By now, you've heard people from both parties, especially in red states, telling CNN's John King or Jeff Zeleny as they travel and others that the president is not doing enough to address their problems. As for what he is doing, well, let him tell you again. Has anyone seen the new heliport that I built? You know, they were going to sue me in that because I get sued every time I do anything. Right. They were going to sue me in that. But then they saw it. They said it's so beautiful. we won't sue him. That was probably not the teleprompter.

4:19It's more from the president's riff in Arizona. He also talked about the ballroom and the triumphal arch, which he now says will house sniper ammunition among sniper as well as snipers. Late yesterday, after first posting video of a British man being mauled to death by a tiger, he then posted this AI version in which he wrestles and then tames a tiger. It's causing an uproar in the UK. Here, it kind of barely registers. Voters say they have bigger things to worry about, which is one reason why Democrat James Tallarico is so competitive perhaps in a state Donald Trump won by double digits and it sets the stage for our town hall tonight.

4:51See you next, Jeff Zeleny joins us now from the venue in Fort Worth. So talk about the stakes tonight and why aren't Tallarico and Paxton debating? Well, Anderson, the stakes, I mean, are as big as any Texas Senate race in memory and even more than that because the fight for control of the Senate indeed hinges on red states like here in Texas. That is because of the president's unpopularity, as you were saying, as well as local factors here. But we are inside the site of the town hall that will be taking place in the next hour. And as the audience members begin to come in here, you can see the intimacy of the room here.

5:28That is one thing I'm struck by. But take a look at the table on the stage. This is what is going to be different about this town hall tonight. It is going to be an opportunity for voters from the left and the right to challenge James Tallarico. It's a segment called Change My Mind. This is something that he has done before, but there are many deep questions about his candidacy now, largely because the president, the vice president, and a few hundred millions of dollars worth of Republican ads have been trying to convince some Texas voters that he is too liberal, that he is out of the mainstream.

6:01The vice president was here yesterday saying that James Tallarico is a threat to your very way of life. But there's an enthusiasm gap here. There is no question. Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting for their candidate. That's why James Tallarico, he is a state lawmaker. He was the youngest state representative to be elected at age 29 back in 2018. He flipped a Texas legislative district from red to blue at that point. But he has taken some liberal positions since then. So he will explain an answer for those. Those have largely been the soundtrack of the campaign against him, saying, for example, God is non-binary.

6:38So he will explain things like that, but also, Anderson, talk about the issues on the minds of voters. Affordability, as you mentioned earlier, is a concern across the board. Republicans and Democrats, independents, party labels don't matter when you're filling up your via gas tank or you're a diesel tank. Record high prices here. So those are some of the other issues. Immigration, of course, he has put some distance between himself and his party on that, talking about health care, other matters. So the stakes of this race are very high and early voting begins here in just five days. So James Tallarico is trying to build a coalition of Democrats, yes, but also independents and some Republicans who are frustrated with their option on the ballot.

7:21That's the Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, as well as just frustrated in general. But it is very much an open question, as we've been talking to one top Republican yesterday who said the idea of asking some voters, even if they're frustrated with the president, to vote for a Democrat, one who could make up a Democratic Senate majority, is still a leap. So that is the challenge for James Tallarico here to effectively put his brand above his party's brand. And as for the question of why they're not debating, Ken Paxton has not agreed to a single debate. James Tallarico has been trying to debate all over.

7:55So that is one of the other dynamics in this race. But there is no doubt Texas is at the center of the fight for the Republican control of the Senate that could be slipping away from them. But it's because of races like this in deep red Trump country that will determine the outcome in just three weeks. All right. Thanks very much. I want to bring in my political panel who's going to be with me throughout the hour. Former Democratic mayor of New York, Bill de Blasio. Former senior advisor, President Obama, David Axelrod. former Trump White House Communications Director Alyssa Farah Griffin, and CNN Senior Political Commentator Scott Jennings.

8:26David, let me start with you, just on the Democratic side. There's obviously a lot of enthusiasm. Do you believe these polls? There's obviously a lot. Well, I think so, and one of the reasons I believe it is the way the Republicans are behaving. I mean, they have spent hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars on this race, and if you had started a year ago, if you had said Republicans were going to have to spend, something approaching half a billion dollars in Texas. I don't know if it will get there, but it will be close. You'd say that's nuts. So they understand how close a race it is. And the interesting thing, Anderson, about these polls is that Tallarico's support has held up.

9:08He's been the subject of a couple of hundred million dollars of negative advertising already. And his number, his approval rating is about the same. his favorable rating and the race has been exactly where it is you know about even with him a couple of notches ahead um i think this is a real race you you do do you agree 100 i look i think the the first question is always the quality of the candidate candidate quality determines the outcome in so many cases this is an exceptional candidate i don't think we've seen anything quite like this i mean i want to give david axelrod credit barack obama talked about faith famously in his democratic had a convention speech that helped make him the figure he was.

9:48Jimmy Carter talked about faith. But Tallarico, the way he brings faith messages and these populist economic messages, progressive messages, calling out the billionaires, he's been a revelation. And he has caught fire in a way we've not seen a Texas candidate do in decades. Remember, when he started out, he was a little-known state rep, probably thinking, you know, why not? But now he's showing us a level of talent and insight into what people are feeling, including talking about the corruption issue, which has really caught fire in the last few months. This is absolutely a real ballgame. I'm still skeptical that after 30 years, Texas could go blue statewide.

10:24But I will say this could be a perfect storm for Tallarico. A couple of factors. I do think he's a good candidate. I think the way that he leans into his faith, I've interviewed him on The View. And he talks like a lot of my conservative Christian family members when he's talking specifically about his faith. But the fact that Ken Paxton is an abysmally bad candidate really helps him. Now, the closest, I think, parallel, if Tallarico ultimately wins on Election Day, would be Beto O 'Rourke in 2018. I was in the Trump White House then. Those midterms, we were clobbered. And Beto came within 2.6 points of beating Ted Cruz.

10:54Now, Ted Cruz was a very well-known figure. He was a widely liked figure within Texas. Ken Paxson is not that. He's widely known, but he's not widely liked. So if Tallarico can build that sort of Beto coalition of Latinos, black voters, young voters, and then get some independents and moderates, he could pull this off. Do you think the Republicans would vote for him, Scott? Well, I think the choice they're going to have to make is, okay, maybe I don't like certain things about Ken Paxton, but am I really going to turn the country over to this Democratic Party that's been overrun by these socialists and by people who speak in a language I don't even understand?

11:27I mean, I know you said he sounds like your conservative relatives. Do your conservative relatives say God is non-binary? There are six biological sexes. Mary's consent to having Jesus is proof that we need to have abortions. He's cleaned up that messaging. You know, my white. I'm not sure he's running on that. Well, but that's the thing. He just said this a couple of years ago. And so I hear this. It reminds me a little people do change their minds, Scott. You know that you more than anybody. I said the president says an awful lot that people let go of. I sat here in 2024 and listen to Democrats say, boy, when Walls puts on that camouflage hat, he looks like all my conservative cousins out in the middle.

12:06Well, no one was buying it. And so I think you may be over-reading this. That having been said, it's a very close race. Ken Paxton is not a great candidate. The environment is not very good. Axe is exactly right. You can often look and see how the parties are behaving. The Republicans are shoveling money into this. But it's because they think they can win. And this is the time of the year when you start seeing people invest or not invest in districts. They're still investing in Texas, which tells you the Republicans think they still can beat Tallarico. When we say Paxton's not a good candidate, we should be very, very clear.

12:37I mean, he is a scandal-ridden candidate. He was impeached by his own party for corruption. He escaped in the state Senate there. He had securities allegations against him that he settled by agreeing to pay restitution and do public service. One of the things he did was ask the state to pay for his whistleblower suits against him. They had millions of dollars of bills or restitution. They had to pay to the whistleblowers because he harassed whistleblowers around that impeachment thing. This is a terrible, terrible candidate. And you know who said that? The Republicans. I mean, John Cornyn's point when he was running against him in the primary was, If you nominate him, you will have to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to try and elect him.

13:28And that money will not be able to be spent in other states. And I think his forecast is coming out here. So, I mean, I do think this is going to be, it is a perfect storm, as you say, because Tallarico's trying to, you'll see him tonight. And he'll get the questions that Scott is raising. But he's been getting them all over the state. And I think he'll address him, but he's a very earnest guy running against a guy who is like a movie bad guy. And there's no question if it was John Cornyn, this race would not be as close as it is. This is also because there's a wildly unpopular candidate in Ken Paxton.

14:04We're going to take a quick break. Coming up next, the president's new press secretary, new questions about whether she is what she claims to be, namely an attorney who has actually passed a bar exam. Also, I'll talk with tonight's moderator, CNN's Erin Burnett, about the town hall of James Tallarico, now about 45 minutes away. We'll be right back.

14:43Thank you.

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15:26She has only had the one press briefing, but the online memes which it has spawned are numerous. One White House insider called her first briefing brutal. It was just part of it. I want to thank President Trump for his trust that he has placed in me. I have wanted to work for him for a very long time. He had a historic one-day war, and now we have a booming economy and a great relationship with Venezuela. Enthusiastic, hard-working Americans are lining up and packing arenas to support President Trump and Republicans. It's not hard to see why. The idea of not spending evenings with my kids is completely unacceptable.

16:18So my president, excuse me, my husband, that's a good one. To the question on, the president will be back on Thursday. And that's what I will answer. I'll leave it there. Well, it's something that she said after the briefing yesterday that continues to raise questions today. She claimed to be a lawyer and in announcing her appointment as press secretary, President Trump called her an attorney. He was asked about that yesterday by reporters.

16:58When she moved to China, was what she said. When I moved to China, she said it turns out only Chinese citizens can take their version of the bar exam and you can't take an American state bar exam while residing in China. So that's a confusing answer. I want to bring CNN's Zach Wolf. So is she practiced, licensed to practice law in any of the 50 states? I assume she does have a law degree, right? She does. She went to Pepperdine. She has a law degree. She's still active in the school there, you know, on the on the dean's council. But there's no evidence that she passed a bar exam. It seems like if she had taken one, the White House would simply have told us that at this point.

17:35And specifically in California, there's no record of her ever taking the bar exam. And interestingly, in that state where she lived, it's actually illegal, as it is in many other states, to present yourself as an attorney or a lawyer. She's used both the term attorney and lawyer online and social media to describe herself. And it can be punishable by by prison time or, you know, a fine. that there's been a complaint raised by a watchdog group today asking for the State Bar of California to investigate whether there's anything untoward that happened here. But it's possible because of that state's privacy laws that we'll never know the results of any kind of investigation like that.

18:18I mean, it brings to mind the Republican attacks on the Michigan Senate candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, who has a doctor of medicine degree from Columbia University, but is not a licensed practicing physician. He's worked in public health. His opponent, Mike Rogers, has said that El-Sayed is not really a doctor. What is actually pertinent in both these situations and what is just semantics? Well, I mean, that has become a huge deal in that Michigan race. In a debate recently, Rogers called him a con man, essentially, for presenting himself as a doctor. El-Sayed can call himself a doctor. He did go to medical school in the same way that Zachariah went to law school.

18:55The semantics are a little bit different in how you can present, you know, what you call yourself. But they are just that semantics. I think the larger point here is that El Syed needs to convince every Michigan voter that he is a legitimate person, that he needs to be considered, you know, to change health insurance. That's like his main topic. He works in health, whereas she needs has an audience of one, effectively Trump. And you saw that double take he did there when she said something about China after he was asked where where she went to law school. So clearly that that was news to him where it appeared to be in the moment.

19:30Do you even know what she meant by that? No. And they did say afterwards she did say afterwards to reporters that she had, you know, completed some sort of necessary, you know, credentialing to work in China. and she's referred to that work as a corporate lawyer. But as you said, it's illegal for a foreigner to be a lawyer in China. So there's been very little forthcoming on this, and we'll just have to see what happens next. All right, Zach Wolf, appreciate it. Thanks. Now back with the panel. An odd way to start. A very rocky start. And by the way, a White House press secretary doesn't need a JD.

20:05They don't need to be a lawyer. So this is becoming almost this side story that is not what you want to be driving headlines after really kind of bombing in your first press briefing. She wouldn't likely get any clients off of her performance on the podium. But I think that she really has one more shot to go out there in front of the press corps, command the room, command the facts, make some news and prove she could do this job, or she's not going to make it past the Scaramucci threshold. Yeah, Ms. Connery, you said she deserves some grace. Should they have put her out or should she have gone out there like that?

20:33Yeah, I might have waited, honestly. They actually, interestingly, had some news to announce. I mean, they were firing Guilfoyle. And I think if I had the lead was sort of buried on that. Yeah, I might have just walked out there and said, look, I've got I've got some news for you today. We fired the ambassador and the president's headed to Alaska and we're going out to the chopper. See you. And, you know, that probably would have been a fine way to do it. But look, you know, hindsight's always 20, 20 on these things. Everybody can sit around and second guess it. It's one of the hardest jobs in the world.

20:59She's a lovely person and and she's got this big opportunity. My advice would simply be take a few days, get to know the building, talk to the key players, really get briefed up on the issues, because the next time you walk out there, you don't want to walk out there feeling any butterflies. You want to walk out there feeling in full command of the issues and what you plan to see. This was really a fail. I mean, I don't understand how that happened, because when in any White House, when you have a new press secretary, there is a lot of preparation. There is a lot of there are mock ups and run throughs and murder boards.

21:30And every day, the press secretary, before they present, spends three, four hours with their staff getting questions fired. What's a murder board for those who are watching? Oh, I'm sorry. It sounds a little grim. It sounds a little grim. No, it's where you get really hard questions and you respond to them. You have people in the office asking you hard questions. Yes, yes, the questions that you anticipate. You're role playing it. Exactly. And that's how press secretaries prepare for these sessions. Clearly, that wasn't done here. you know maybe she was pushed out but if you know someone in the White House should have said hey let's make sure that she's prepped before we throw her out here.

22:09CNN's K-Files reporting that she has a history of conspiracy laden social media posts and one she writes the radical left Hollywood elitists are sick pedo cannibals change my mind. In another she shared a conspiracy theory about Hillary Clinton's campaign chair with the hashtag pedo podesta which was part of a whole QAnon conspiracy thing, obviously baseless claim. Do you have concerns? Yeah, look, there's a sort of

22:38thing in any Republican or Democrat White House. You would never let someone come in with those kind of statements out on the public record. So it suggests a White House that is not functioning the same way anymore. For the voters now three weeks out, I think it's demoralizing to Republican voters, honestly, to see chaos moment after chaos moment. And I think a lot of people see these kind of things and it just tells them to stay home. Meanwhile, Democrats look at this and they feel more justified. This is profoundly unpresidential. And there was no way she was going to be prepared. If that's the way she thinks about the world, there's no way she belongs at that podium.

23:17And think about it. Heading into the midterms, this is one of the most powerful bully pulpits on the planet, is the White House briefing pulpit. And what she should have done is spent, hours preparing. Kayleigh McEnany would prepare for three or four hours. She'd meet with the National Security Council with different components of the West Wing. I believe Caroline did the same. And this is somewhere where you can drive a message. A Trump press secretary is very different than a more traditional one, but your job is to go out there, fight with the press, and try to land the president's message for that day.

23:42She just doesn't seem up to that baseline task, and that's what makes me wonder, what was the vetting? What was the interview process? What did they think they were signing up for and hiring her. Who decides? I mean, is it basically the president who chooses? The reporting seems to say it was the president and that Susie Wiles was a little bit surprised, the chief of staff. But I don't know that independently. I mean, this person does answer to the president. I mean, it's one of the top advisory positions. It just so happens it's also a very public facing position. It's one of the few White House people you actually, you know, get to know because they're on your television most days of the week.

24:13I think it's also possible that we're spending a lot more time obsessing over this than the average voter? No, than the average voter. No, I don't think the average voter cares about this. But the reason we should be focused on it is only because it does reflect a level of chaos that, as Bill mentioned, the process of how she was selected, the process of how she was prepared, is emblematic of the kind of chaotic operational situation we've seen over the last, particularly over the last several weeks. I mean, the Secretary of Defense announces a public execution. No evidence that he told the White House that he was going to do that and so on.

24:56These are cautionary notes, and it's going to get harder if Democrats do win the House or the House and Senate. It's going to get harder for the White House, and it's going to get harder for the press secretary. I agree with that. moderate voters, independent voters don't like chaos. This is why I think we're seeing it. Why do you think it's going to get harder? Because if Democrats win, the oversight environment, the investigatory environment, that particular job, and whoever is sitting at the top of the Republican heap in the House Oversight Committee, those two people you're going to see on your TV every day, they're going to be sort of the public de facto defense lawyers for Trump.

25:37And by the way, if she's not an attorney, she should work very closely with White House counsel, because every word she says will be scrutinized. Stay with us, everyone. We're about 32 minutes from tonight's town hall. I want to check in with moderator CNN's Erin Burnett. What do you expect tonight, Erin, in terms of topics and format? All right. So it's actually really going to be fun, Anderson. You know, you've done so many town halls before. This is a town hall, but we're putting a twist on it. There's going to be some different parts. You can see audience already gathering here in Texas for this all-important Senate race.

26:05Just had a chance to briefly say hello to Representative Tallarico, who wants to end the Democratic drought here in Texas and turn this seat blue. And we're going to take audience questions, Anderson. We're also going to find out, people are going to talk about the issues that matter to them, and then we're going to do something really different. Behind me, you can see two chairs, okay? But Anderson, we're going to put a table there. There's going to be two chairs, one for James Tallarico and one for a voter, and two mics. And they're going to be able to debate on issues that people here are really passionate about, issues where they do not agree with Representative Tallarico.

26:41So they're going to have a debate. We've got a clock. We're going to give them a chance to actually debate with the candidate. And that is going to be fascinating, exciting. It's going to be really interesting to do that live. And then he's going to have a chance to earn the vote of people in this room. Anderson, who came in saying that they had not decided who they were voting for between Paxton and Tallarico. And so depending on what he says tonight, did they change their mind? Was that enough to sway them one way or the other? And he has a chance to respond to that and earn their vote. So it's going to be exciting.

27:11It's going to be fun. We've been going through what some of this is going to look like. And I think everybody watching will will be in for a real treat. Back to you. That sounds cool. Aaron, thanks. I look forward to it. We'll see you again at the top of the hour. Coming up next, we'll check in with CNN's John Berman and Harry Enten already talking with viewers on CNN All Access about tonight's town hall. They'll join us live and later a live report from the president's next stop tonight, Montana, state he won by 20 points just two years ago. but where one of the state's house races is much tighter than expected.

27:39We'll be right back.

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28:15Welcome back. A Democrat has not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, a streak that James Tallarico is looking to break. CNN's John Berman and Harry Enten join us now. They're hosting a special viewer Q &A on CNN All Access tonight about the town hall and whether a Democrat can actually win in Texas. So, John, what aspect of the Texas Senate race do the viewers you're talking to tonight seem to be most interested in? We're getting all kinds of questions. We're getting them on the issues. But, Anderson, I think the most common question is like the one we just got. This is from a user, didn't put their name in the email, but it said, do you really trust the polls?

28:49The last decade has been rocky for polls. Would love to flip the seat in Texas, but yes, I'm a dem clutching the pearls. It does seem to me that we are getting a lot of questions and a lot of focus from people who see the polls in Texas, which have all been close within the margin of error, but have shown James Tallarico a little bit ahead. But a lot of the people are looking at this and saying, you know what? This is Texas. I'm just not sure that we can believe it until we see it. They're a little concerned it may be an issue of Lucy and the football. That was the very first question we got on Office Hours when we started at 7 o 'clock, CNN.com slash Office Hours.

29:24And it is the most frequent question, Anderson, I think we're also getting. It's actually how we started off tonight as well with that question. I mean, Harry, Democrats have tried to win statewide Texas for many, many years. We talked about Beto O 'Rourke a little bit earlier, only to come up short each time. Does this race feel substantially different? You know what? Your question is a perfect bounce off of what Johnny B was just talking about, because what are the things that, in my opinion, make this race potentially different from the prior races we've had in Texas? Well, number one, James Tallarico is polling better than Beto O 'Rourke ever did.

29:59He's actually ahead. Yes, it is close. It is within the margin of error. But he is actually ahead in many more polls than he is behind him. Number two, Donald Trump is considerably less popular right now than he was back in 2018 when Beto O 'Rourke, of course, tried to take that United States Senate seat for the Democrats. In fact, he's the least popular Republican president at this point before midterm election of any Republican president this century. In fact, you probably have to go back well into the 20th century to find one. And then number three, and I think the most important thing is Ken Paxton.

30:33Boy, his numbers are just awful, awful, awful. He is by far the least popular Republican Senate nominee in Texas this century. You put those three points into an equation and no, I can't say that James Tallarico going to win, but it certainly creates the potential for it in a way that no Democrat has had the potential to win in Texas in the 21st century. Anderson. Harry Anton, John Berman. Thanks so much. You can catch their show on CNN dot com slash all access. More now from our team here. Dave, what do you think the strategy from the Trump team clearly is rev up the MAGA base. He's going to, you know, some of his most popular areas right now saying he's on the ballot.

31:15Yes. Is that going to bring those voters home? Well, I mean, I think that's that's their hope. I will say they put an ad on for essentially to help Paxton. And it was his wife, his ex-wife or the wife with whom he's locked in a divorce. And basically she never mentioned him. She just said, you know, once the primary is over, you got to vote for the team. And the message was, yeah, he may be a reprobate, but he's a reprobate with a red jersey on. So vote for him. I saw an ad test of this and it was very poorly received because people resented it. They felt like, you know, that's not enough for us.

31:55In terms of the polling, I will say this. Pollsters are aware of the concerns about polling. So there was a Marist poll today that had that basically tied Tallarico two points up. They weighted it according to the turnout from the presidential race in 2024, which was probably generous to the Republicans because they don't want to make that mistake. But in that same poll, they asked people who they thought would win regardless of their choice. And even though Tallarico had a slight lead within the margin of error, a majority said they thought that Paxton would win. So voters in Texas do kind of feel like even though Paxton's, they may think Paxton's a bum, they may like Tallarico, but they still think the drift of the state will be in his direction.

32:46And of course, that's the last thing in a year in which Trump is struggling, the Republican Party is struggling, these economic numbers are terrible. And the one thing that you can do in these red states is just summon people back to tribe. And I think that's what the last two weeks are going to be about. I just want to play, he started off his event in Arizona, the president, speaking for a fair amount of time about the jet he was given from Qatar. And I just want to play what he said for our viewers. And you saw the brand new 747 Air Force One, it was about time. Sam Stead is a golfer, great golfer.

33:24They say, you know, when they give you a putt, you say, just two words. Thank you. You bend down, you pick it up, and you walk to the next hall. When they give you a 747, you say two words. Thank you. I went to a very fine person, actually. Tamim, the emir of Qatar. Extremely wealthy people. Great people, actually. And I said, we would love to borrow your 747. United States of America would love to borrow it because our planes are 35 years old. So I called up the head of Qatar, highly respected guy, great guy, young, handsome guy, actually. It's great to be young, handsome and have plenty of cash.

34:07He said, no, no, no, no, no, no. You're my friend. I will not allow you to borrow it or use it. I will allow you to, on behalf of the United States, have it. You may have it. Now, we played about a minute and three seconds of that. There's actually another two and a half minutes that I think you can watch on all access. But I'm kidding on that one. But why is the president of the United States starting off his campaign speech over three minutes about this jet from Qatar? Does that make it? It's a metaphor. I'm surprised you don't get it. We're flying into the future. Look, he riffs on things, OK?

34:52And he likes the plane. And, you know, I'm sure that was one of a bunch of stories that aren't exactly boilerplate political commentary or political stump speaking. Not the midterm. That you would expect out of normal politicians. But he riffs on things. He's been riffing on things, as Alyssa knows, for 10 years. And this is something that he likes to riff on. So, you know, he doesn't give he does not give standard stump speeches. He never has. I do not suspect he's going to start here in October. He did 10 minutes on Friday night ripping Norway for not giving him, for again, him not receiving the peace prize, though the government doesn't control that.

35:2410 minutes. But I mean, if your approval ratings are sagging and there's an affordability crisis and you're bragging about your statues and the golf game. You are implying that there is a linear thought process involved in this. I'm not saying I'm the most relatable guy in the world, but he's talking about his jet and his golf game. It's open mic night whenever he does these things and it's entertaining to people in the crowd. Is it? It is complete. Yes, it still is. It probably is. He tells stories about things that we've all heard before a million times. I know, but he. Listen, I have. We've been doing this for 10 years and I feel like we've been trying to cram him into a, you know.

36:06You just got like every other politician for 10 years and he's still around. He's a two term president. Here's the difference. over the course of those 10 years, you aren't facing the set of circumstances that you are right now, where people are suffering in an economy where the costs are very high, and they can point to specific decisions the president has made, and he does nothing to, instead of telling them, here's the path forward, he tells them that this is the golden age, we've never had a better economy, and so on. He tells a story that they cannot believe and they know isn't true. Now, maybe the people in the crowd do, but this thing is televised.

36:43We're watching it now, and it does not help Republican candidates when he goes off on these jacks. It absolutely does not. It's also a corruption angle here. Look, Tallarico, getting back to what we're about to see, has really brought corruption forward as a powerful issue. I think a lot of us thought a few months ago people are just not even paying attention. Now he's talking about corruption in a way that makes people feel they've been sold out and they want candidates who are not part of the system. when Trump talks about the emir gave me a 747 along with all the self-aggrandizement financially for his family it builds up a deeper image to the American people he's not only out of touch he's not working on their agenda this is horrible timing it works with a MAGA rally it does not work with the American people.

37:25I think one of the saddest things about this moment is that the heartland has been hit particularly hard by Trump's policy so between the tariffs and the war in Iran So gas and diesel prices. I've spent a lot of time in Texas with Trump, with Vice President Pence. That is a state that relies on that for their agriculture community, for any kind of transportation they're going to do. And these are self-inflicted wounds. These are things he promised he wasn't going to do. They also do a lot of shipping. I'll give you a little. And so the truckers are impacted by that. They they they have they're a big importer and exporter.

37:55They've been hit by his tariffs. I'll give you a little strategic insight onto some of these Republican districts in middle America. you know, the president's numbers are here. Some of these districts still have a higher Republican generic than the president's approval rating. That tells you there is actually a cohort of Republican voters probably voted for him two or three times who still want to vote Republican, even if they're not super happy with him right now. That's actually the group you earlier, you know, sort of refer to this as revving up the MAGA base. I think there's actually something else to it.

38:26And that is saying, OK, I know you might be unhappy with me about this side or the other. But you're a Republican. I'm a Republican. And we can't let the socialists take over the country seat. So part of the strategy is the disapprover, the disapproving conservative, the disapproving Republican, take that person and still convert them. By the way, Biden did this to some degree in 22. He converted some disapproving independents into Democrat voters. So that's why like in Arizona, he's in Mojave County, which I think went for him 55 percent. Yeah, that's to I'm telling you right now, there'll be people there who still love him.

38:58There'll be people there who are disappointed with him but still consider themselves to be Republicans. And that little group right there, if you could reel them in, it definitely would change. As I said before, the plan now, the bailout plan there now is to rev up the base by telling people you may be unhappy, but this is a tribal fight. Put on your red jersey. I mean, that's the argument. And, you know, it's going to work in a few places. A lot more ahead tonight. We're going to take you live to Montana, where the president will be speaking shortly. Also, we're a house race that normally is an easy Republican win is suddenly close.

39:30Plus more on what's at stake tonight in the CNN Town Hall that is now just minutes away. We'll be right back.

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40:17Vanta gets you compliant fast with SOC 2, ISO 27001, and more, and keeps you secure with continuous monitoring. Hyperbound, a YC-backed startup, used Vanta to unlock the Fortune 100 in under a year. Snowfire got audit ready in a month and closed a multi-million dollar deal. Trust matters. Get started at Vanta.com. As we wait for tonight's CNN Town Hall to get underway in Fort Worth in about 10 minutes, the president is about to speak in Montana. CNN's Kevin Liptak is there for us. How is a reliably Republican House seat in Montana competitive enough that the president himself is going there to stump the GOP nominee?

40:56Yeah, that's a good question. I think it speaks to two things. One, this race is just clearly a lot tighter than a lot of people thought it would be. But the other thing that I think it really underscores, and you hear this repeatedly from Republicans in races around the country, is this real concern that low propensity voters, Trump supporters, a lot of them in rural areas, are just not going to go out and vote in this election. And I had a chance to talk to that Republican candidate here. His name's Aaron Flint. He's a conservative radio host. And he was pretty frank about that. He said there are thousands of voters that they have identified who vote every presidential election but don't go low and vote in the midterms.

41:32And that's just going to spell trouble for him in November if they don't actually cast their ballots. But, of course, every time a Republican appears with President Trump, they're taking a gamble. You know, President Trump is unpopular. He's unpopular here, too, even in a red state like Montana. And there is a liability if they're overly tied to some of the president's agenda. And you see that around town here, too. You see signs everywhere tying Aaron Flint to President Trump, specifically tying him to the Iran war. You know, it was interesting in talking to Flint. He did try and put some distance between himself and Trump on that particular issue.

42:06He said he wanted to end the Iran war. So even though he's appearing with him here tonight, certainly not on board with that particular conflict. Yeah. Kevin Liptec, appreciate it. Thanks very much. For less than three weeks until the midterm, there's still plenty of time for an October surprise or late development that could significantly impact the election and either could help or hurt the outcome for candidates. Joining us now to dive into the history of October midterm surprises is Pulitzer Prize winning presidential historian Doris Kearns Goodwin. She's the author of many bestselling books, including Leadership in Turbulent Times.

42:37So, Doris, it is great to see you. I want to start with the October midterm surprises in recent history that have actually helped the incumbent president's party. What stands out to you? I think the most dramatic one, obviously, was the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. I mean, think about it. This is today, the very day, October 14th, where it started when the intelligence officers figured out that there were missiles in Cuba that were Russian and pointed at us. And then a few days later, the president had to speak to the nation, tell them what was happening and say that there's going to be a quarantine and talk about the warning of a nuclear exchange.

43:12Now, that obviously eclipses everything else that was a problem for Kennedy in that midterm election. His promises hadn't really been kept in the Congress. The economy was still sluggish. There was a civil rights backlash. And not only did it have the rally around the flag thing, but two weeks later it is solved and then it's a triumph. And so they actually gained seats in that election. And that's unusual. These October surprises are very special because nine out of ten elections since 1900 midterms, they lose. They lose the party in power loses. So Clinton's another incredible example. In 1998, he was still popular despite the fact that the Lewinsky scandal had gone on.

43:51But the Republicans decided that they would make it the centerpiece of the campaign. Gingrich did. And they authorized an impeachment inquiry in October. The Star Report was in September. And the economy was great. And people felt that economy. The unemployment was low. The inflation was low. And for the first time, you had a budget surplus. Can you imagine that? So people didn't like the fact that he had made the scandal the center. And Gingrich lost ground. They gained ground. And he had to resign. The hero of 1994 then has to resign. And the same thing happens for Bush in 2002. 9-11 is still the central issue.

44:27His approval rating of his war on terror is up to like 73%, and the Afghanistan thing seemed to have gone well, and now they have an authorization for Iraq. And so that's what everybody thinks about, and he gains seats. So those are the exceptions to the rule, and those October surprises helped. I want to play something that the president has repeatedly posted on social media, vowing to give every adult U.S. citizen$5 ,000 if Republicans win in November. Apparently we don't have it. What he said is, I'm going to give all adult citizens in the United States of America$5 ,000. If the Democrats win, you'll have an economic depression.

45:01If the Republicans win, you'll each have$5 ,000 in your pocket, an economic success for a country like we have never, ever seen before. Are there historical examples that are analogous to that? Well, what it reminds me of is President Hoover in 1928, when he was running for office, he promised a chicken in every pot and a car in every backyard. So obviously then when he gets to the midterms in 1930, the stock market has crashed, the economy is in downfall, and the Democrats were able to use that as what is going on that promises were not kept, and the Democrats win largely in that midterm election.

45:37So a chicken in every pot is sort of like a$5 ,000 gift. I mean, given that we live in this age of mail-in voting, though the president doesn't like it, and early voting across the country, do you think October's prizes have the same kind of impact now as they did decades ago? I think probably not. In fact, I think the time period has just narrowed down. And just imagine even today in Georgia, evidently unprecedented number of people came to early voting on that first day. So they've already got their own opinions baked in before something could happen. And there's not much time left for something.

46:08I mean, my only fear, of course, as other people have, is that the interference in the election might be an October surprise, a November surprise. But somehow I just have a feeling that secretaries of states in each one of those states that have pride in how well their elections have been run in the past, that they will feel this is their moment in history to protect the integrity of the vote. I mean, that's what my old friend Lyndon Johnson said, that nothing is more vital than the right to vote. And every other right we have flows from that. So we've just got to make that as not a partisan issue.

46:36It's the only thing that we have to really be concerned with, I think, going forward to this next midterm election. Doris Curtis Goodwin, if you weren't writing books, I would like to have you on my program every night to give a historical look at what is happening today. Doris, thank you. It's always great to see you. I'll see you again soon. Thank you so much. Yeah. Let's get some final thoughts. We've got a couple of minutes. We've got about four and a half minutes. Scott, the vice president was campaigning for Paxson in Texas yesterday, made several insinuations about Tallarico. I want to play that.

47:07Now, before we get started, I love you too, sir. In a totally platonic way, to be clear. I'm the vice president, not James Calarico. He was asked what he loves in life besides his own family and friends. And he responded without skipping a beat, and I quote, trans children. now you gotta wonder what the internet search history of a man like that looks like ladies and gentlemen you don't want to find out neither do i um i do want to play what talariko actually said about trans kids back on a podcast in 2023 something that you love that's not family or friends I love, I'm just saying this because it's on my mind, the trans children who showed up yesterday at the state capitol to advocate for their humanity.

48:06They shouldn't have to, but it was an inspiration to watch. Should the vice president be above those kind of smears? Well, I mean, he did say that. I mean, he did play it. On the other piece, my advice to him would be, make sure you look a little small. You're the vice president of the United States. And by the way, there's a mountain of things that James Tallarico has said on all sorts of issues that should be more than enough to carry the day in Texas. If I were in his shoes, that's what I would do. I do think this issue, he has sort of been weirdly focused on these trans kids issues as a state legislator.

48:42He has said strange things about gender. You said there are six genders on the sexual orientation piece. Yeah, you said that already. I just, if I were J.D. Vance, I'd just stick to the record. The record here speaks for itself, and it's enough to win. And just give enough of the record to imply something without the whole record, because that's what's done in politics. The interesting thing is the last time... For a guy who wears eyeliner more than a Mr. I quit a guy now, it's kind of remarkable. Just saying. But in 24, the Republican strategy was to say, Democrats are obsessed by cultural issues.

49:13We're focused on the economy. Now they don't want to talk about the economy. So they're saying, let's focus on cultural issues. And it's kind of they flip the strategy here because they're in trouble on in 24. They were going to solve the economic problems. Now they're responsible for them. And they're and they're turning to these kinds of. What are you going to be looking for tonight at this? I'm going to be looking for how does James Tallarico try to message to independent, moderate and even soft Republican voters? The part that's going to be the most interesting is where he's kind of interviewed by undecided voters.

49:45There are some kind of third rail lefty issues that I think he has to be careful to answer properly because he could alienate some of those independents. Gaza is very much a hot button issue. The trans issue, trans women in sports, he needs to have an answer that could satisfy potentially bringing over independents and moderates without alienating the core Democratic base. He's been doing this. He's been traveling all over the state doing this. So there's nothing that he's going to hear tonight that he probably hasn't heard before. And that's an advantage. Paxton doesn't travel around the state much doing these things.

50:14He does. And that's an advantage. He's also look, he is so in touch. Tal Rico is so in touch with what people are going through right now. You know, he has a great response on the trans issues. He says about one percent of the population is trans. But we're talking about the wrong one percent. We should be talking about the billionaires and the corruption that has put people into this horrible economy that's hurting American families. He does that in a way that's effortless, that's sincere. And I think a lot of moderate voters are listening to that. It's not about ideology to them. They feel they're surrounded by a corrupt system and they want some change.

50:46He's an earnest person speaking to that reality. To me, it's interesting in this town hall that they are going to be having James Tallarico, not only answering questions from the audience and the moderators, but from people at a table across from each other. It's an innovative way to do it. I actually think Tallarico deserves some credit for signing up for it. It shows a little bit of political athleticism to step into something like that. And so when you're running in a state where, you know, you're a Democrat, you're running uphill in Texas doing things like this, he's going to get some attention.

51:16He's going to get some eyeballs tonight. We'll see how he handles it. I mean, he's got a long record of things to answer for, but it's an innovative format. I want to thank everybody on the panel. Thanks very much. Good discussion. And now a CNN and Jubilee Town Hall with James Tallarico, moderated by Aaron Burnett. Observe. The North American Dad. 50s. Great polo collection. He enters his vehicle information on Carvana. An offer appears in minutes. Remarkable. He squints, reads it again, smiles and says, dang, that's a good offer. The highest form of approval. No haggling. No hassle. No one called him boss.

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