A Healthy Pullback (EP.357)

24:50What was the upside of saying no recession? True. You know, I mean, cool. Like, you know, you were saying no recession purely to be a contrarian. Like, you know, ha ha, I'll say no recession. But if there was a recession, you'd look like the biggest asshole ever. It's like, dude, everyone saw this coming. How did you miss this? That's a good point. You didn't have a job. There's like two different kinds of contrarians. If you're a contrarian and you're bearish, you look smart. If you're a contrarian and you're bullish, everyone thinks you're an idiot or you're not that smart. Yeah, Tom Lee gets mocked.

25:20The guy's been right for a decade plus. Right. Yes. Jeremy Siegel is called a permable, and those guys are right more than anyone. Yeah, come on. Yeah. Yeah, that is an interesting double standard. All right, what are we looking at here? Oh, we got an email about one of our listeners got a SWAT team sent to his house. The crypto scams are wildly out of control. What was the nature of the story? It was basically one of the Coinbase. It's always Coinbase. It seems like people use Coinbase as a, just must be because they have the most customers. So it's basically like, send me this money from your Coinbase account, or I will send a SWAT team to your house and say that like someone's been kidnapped.

26:00And it's like, you know, you hit delete on that. And someone emailed us and said that like the cops actually showed up to their house. Someone actually called in and said, which I don't know what that really does to you. Scares you a little bit, I suppose, but I'd be pretty freaked out. Yeah. Did you see the email that came in? Somebody said that they, they, uh, it was a, a scam. obviously they got emailed by Jerome Powell. No. Did you see that? No. Saying what? Send me some money. I forgot. It was a long, silly email. Okay. Uh, I think on the compounded friends last week, we talked about boomers with paid off mortgages and how, what an advantage that is for the housing market.

26:36So Lance Lambert at Resi club sent me some charts that he made and it's the percentage of mortgage-free homeowners. And it goes, it shows it by year and it goes from 32 % in 2010 to nearly 40 % now. Then he also broke it down by different county. I guess you can get this data, which is crazy. And down by the U.S., look at that middle part of the country from like Texas up. How many of these counties have 70 % of homeowners with paid off mortgages? Good luck by Alaska. Look at all those people with paid off homes in Alaska. I mean, imagine being a, I don't know how many people live in some of these counties that have a high percentage, but imagine being a first-time homebuyer in one of these places.

27:19The disadvantage that you're at. It's wild, the access to data and information. It's pretty cool, right? We, and I mean like all of us have and how it's reflected in the market and all that sort of stuff. Like this is a beautiful chart. There was something else I saw this week that I was like, man, this is wild. So Fred Katz tweeted, the Knicks have added referee tendency statistics to their media notes. First time they have offered this info publicly is in their game notes they gave to media before game one. So they show Scott Foster, Bum, and two other refs who I haven't heard of. And it shows like, it breaks it down by foul calls, defensive three-second violations, traveling violations, offensive fouls, technical fouls.

28:03It shows the crew challenge overturn rate. Like, it shows it by individual referee. Right. They call more fouls than them. That's crazy. So So every aspect of everything has this level of granularity. It's pretty wild. Everything that can be quantified will be quantified. Yes. All right. I've been calling this one for a while. Bloomberg had a piece on the home renovation boom. And it shows nationwide homeowner spending on home renovations, four-quarter moving total, just up and to the right. There was a brief interlude there in the 2008 crisis. And now it's rolling over a little now, but just astronomically higher since the early to mid-2000s.

28:48They also tried to break down the number of homes not sold because of locked-in mortgage rates and just keeps rising. Like, this is the activity we would expect in a normally functioning housing market, and so more houses are building up. I think we built our house in 2017. There's already stuff that we look at back, ah, we wish we would have done this differently. You know what the big one is, especially with kids? I would not have carpet in any of my house. Isn't your whole house hardwood floors, basically? yes that if you have kids carpet is is the worst form of flooring there is for children oh yeah there's no way new houses are putting down carpet anymore no it's it's i mean i'm sure it's it's cheaper than other stuff but where does carpet even go anymore it seems so so antiquated probably in in bedrooms yeah if anything bedrooms but they have like the they have the what we've gotten the waterproof vinyl, whatever fake stuff.

29:41It looks kind of like hardwood, but it's also waterproof for kids. I would just cover my house in that stuff. The house that I grew up in, the entire upstairs was carpeted, not the kitchen. Right. I think about how many times my parents replaced carpeting over the years, like four or five times probably, because it would just get ruined so easily. It is funny too. If you had an old house and you like rip the carpet up to change the flooring, there'd be like beautiful hardwood floors underneath carpet. Like people thought, Like, screw these Herbert floors. Let's put carpeting over it. That's one thing, and I'm sure we could have a long list of things that weren't better in the 90s.

30:14Carpet, number one. Yes, housing. That's a good one. Houses, if you look at houses built in the 90s, they might as well have been built in the 50s at this point. Well, they were. That's why there's a renovation boom. I've said this before, but I'll say it again. The layout of the house that I grew up in made no sense. So upstairs, there's like a split level. Upstairs, it was my bedroom, my sister's bedroom, and my mother's bedroom with one bathroom. It's like they didn't think about this stuff. With one, and my bedroom was legitimately 10 by 10. Maybe it was probably a hundred square feet. So it was tiny.

30:55And same thing with my sister's bedroom. And the master bedroom was probably 15 by 15 and one bathroom. and then the kitchen was attached to all that. Who thought that was a good idea? They just like throw the rooms together and shake it up or something. Yeah, a lot of houses don't make any sense. In America, half of every dollar spent on brand medicines goes to entities who don't make them. While middlemen like PBMs and 340B hospitals drive up costs, Biopharma is investing$500 billion in new infrastructure and manufacturing here at home and helping patients buy medicines directly at lower prices.

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32:14Ben, last week we spoke about the grass is always greener syndrome. Yes. The notion that we go on vacation and we say, I can really live here. What a wonderful existence this is. Well, I listened to the episode today and you read an email from a listener that talked about downsizing their house to reduce expenses and extra time and money. And you also read an email about how you will adjust to wherever you live pretty quickly. So this person moved. I don't want to say where to. Their house value tripled. COVID upended our lives and thinking in a lot of ways we decided it was a good opportunity to cash out and try something new.

32:51We had some great family vacations at Disney. And so we purchased an investment property there in 2021. one. They've been living there for almost two years and I've learned some valuable lessons. When we came to Florida in the past, we were on vacation with no responsibilities. So everything was relaxing and fun. Yes. Now we have work, school, appointments, and a big house to upkeep and clean. Everything grows constantly here. So the landscaping needs to be maintained all the time. When guests come to visit, they are on vacation, but we are not, which creates a weird dynamic. so anyway this person sums it up very well I've learned that bigger isn't always better there's a lot of value in keeping things simple and easily manageable that is one of the things that plagues everyone is the grass is always greener syndrome whether it's a larger house or a vacation house or an I could live here house yes it is true you get this ideal in your head and it's never exactly like it we had a handful of emails from people like this Right?

33:53Like people, it's a buy the rumor, sell the news type thing. Yes. Yeah. We got a few of those. Okay. Another one from Torsten Slock. This is, yeah, this is Torsten Slock. In the US, do you see this chart before I quiz you? Yeah, I saw it, sir. I was reading it. 87 % of firms with revenue over$100 million are private. I would never have guessed that. I'd love to know. Obviously, inflation adjusted. I'd love to see like a line chart over time. of the percentage of companies with that sort of level of revenue that are public or private. And I'm just going to guess that this has gone higher and higher and higher over the years as regulations make it less desirable for companies to come public, as private markets have exploded in terms of liquidity and all that sort of stuff.

34:42And private equity firms have gotten much larger and larger. Yeah, private equity is a big piece of this too, obviously. Yeah, yeah. They can keep them private because they're funding them. Yeah. All right. This is now the third bite of the apple we've gotten. I've gotten out of the Bank of America conference call. I spoke about some charts on what are your thoughts. We spoke about more with Art Hogan on TCAF. By the way, did you have a good time at TCAF? I had a great time. It was fun. Good feedback on that one. Not to brag. A lot of people were commenting on my physique. You look amazing. Kind of awkward.

35:11I mean, credit to you. This camera angle just doesn't do me justice. It really doesn't. That's true. No, because you know what? It's funny you mentioned that because I was watching a little bit on YouTube and I got to say, you look jacked to the tits. Do you still have your physical trainer? Your trainer? Yeah, I still do have my physical trainer, although I feel like I'm like getting hips somehow. What does that mean? I don't know. I look like, I'm like wide down here. I'm not, I'm not, we look very different. Let's just put it that way. All right. But these, yes, no, that was fun. But I think these credit card and financial firm earnings calls are very helpful in terms of economic activity.

35:54Yeah. So there's no company that I can think of in the United States that represents the state of the overall consumer better than Bank of America. Would you agree with that? I'd have to think about that. Let me get back to you. Pretty close, but I'd have to think about that. How about this? Maybe you could probably put JP Morgan in there, but I'm just saying just from the point of learning about the consumer through an earnings call and an earnings deck, nobody does it like they do. All right. So in terms of they have a chart on credit card days past due trend, they break it down by 30 days, 30 to 59, et cetera, and the longer it goes out.

36:31They said we were encouraged by the trend of delinquencies because the late stage increases slowed and early stage delinquencies improved as well. and that leads us to believe we should begin to see consumer net charge-offs start to level out over the next quarter or so. That's good. So there were some delinquencies, but it's getting better. Yeah. Let's see what they said about commercial real estate. Roughly one-third of our office exposure is now categorized as reservable criticized. And importantly, the pace of the increases in reservable criticized exposures has slowed each quarter since the second quarter of last year.

37:06Reservable criticized. I think that's how they categorize maybe write-offs. Okay. Reservable criticized. So how much are they taking for net charges, I'm guessing. Okay. So we believe the losses on these office properties have been front-loaded and largely reserved. We expect the losses to move lower in the second quarter, and we expect a notable decline in the second half of the year when compared to the first half of the year, absent any material change in expected real estate prices. Now, they could be wrong, but they have no reason to be overly optimistic right on an earnings call. Isn't it true, though, that the banks being better capitalized are in such a much better position to handle this commercial real estate, whatever it is?

37:49If this thing happened at the same time as 2008 or whatever? Oh, forget about it. So look at these charts. So they show consumer net charge-offs, and they, like a lot of other people, were taking big provisions for losses that mostly never materialized. Now, it is going higher, but not catastrophically. These are net charge-offs, not reserves. So these are actual charge-offs. But if you look at the commercial side of it, talk about being front-loaded. This is the thing that we keep saying. There's all these articles about there was a building in St. Louis that got written down tremendously. There's all these articles.

38:24And you're like, well, where is the wider crash? Look at the commercial net charge-offs that they took in the first quarter of 2024 compared to previous quarters. It quadrupled. big one. We know that commercial real estate is f***ed. Right. And the banks know it too. Right. They're holding all these loans on the books. They know it. Yeah. So they're writing them down. All right. Alex Morris has a wonderful substack where he talks about, I think he owns 13 companies in his portfolio. Netflix is one of them. I also own Netflix. And it's just a really great way to read about these companies, the fundamentals, and it's like easily digestible.

39:03So I'm happy to pay for that service. Here's a chart showing Netflix operating income. And Ben, I was mentioning earlier in the show how the financials of Netflix had gone sideways for a couple of years in terms of their operating income, right? Look at that breakout in 2024. So Alex says, it's pretty astounding to think about the evolution of Netflix's financials. In 2014, the business generated revenues of$5.5 billion, revenue. Fast forward to 2024 and EBIT, That's earnings before interest and taxes. Basically, bottom line. And EBIT, or close to it, EBIT is now at$10 billion despite spending$17 billion on content.

39:38How wild is that? You know what they're way better at at Netflix than every other streamer? When you're binging a show and you go from one episode to the next, these other streamers, Netflix just goes right into the next episode. These other streamers make you sit and watch the credits and you have to fast forward it or hit back to go to the next episode. You just want to, when you finish an episode, you want to watch the next one right away. These other streamers just don't have it. how come Netflix is the only one who's figured this out? They make it easy for you to keep binging. I don't want to sit through all the credits.

40:06Give me the next episode. Alright. Wait, one more thing on this topic about why do companies sort of do things this way. I was listening, and this is a bit of a tangent so forgive me, but I was listening to Fantasy and Amanda Dobbins at The Big Picture and they were talking about their most anticipated summer movies. Did you listen to this? No. Any good ones? So I can't wait for Alien Romulus and Mad Max, the new Mad Max movie, or the new Fury Road movie. Future also, yeah, looks good. Looks amazing. They mentioned the new, or the English version, the American version of Speak No Evil. Okay. Speak No Evil is the most horrific movie in terms of, like, it hurt to watch.

40:51Why, it was a British movie or something, or what? No, it was Nordic. I can't remember where. Okay. And it was just so beyond grisly. Just anybody that has watched it, it shakes you to your core. Like that's how bad it was in a good way, but also in a bad way. So anyway, I bring this up to say that they completely, completely spoiled the movie in the trailer. They gave it away. And I kind of wonder if, and they were alluding to this. one of the reasons why they might have done that is to, you need shock value to get people to go to the theaters. Because otherwise, if it's not Mission Impossible, people aren't going.

41:30So you show the release, and then people are like, what? I have to see that. But they really spoiled the movie. Okay. What was the horror movie that I spoiled that one time? You got mad at me. Barbarian. The Justin Long one, yeah. Okay. I was perusing the D.R. Horton. The other one I like for the real estate market is just looking at the home builders, right? DR Horton is one of the largest homebuilders in the country. So they said, they talk about how mortgage rates are impacting, and they also talked about their buyers. And they said their buyers have an average FICO score of 725, average loan-to-value ratio of 89%, meaning 11 % down payment.

42:04First-time homebuyers represented 15 or 57 % of the closings in the quarter, which is pretty high. Still see strong buyer demographic and demand, and we remain consistent that we have seen fluctuations in rates, but they've not really been significant enough to have any meaningful impact on our backlog and people's ability to qualify. So rates going to 7.5 % haven't really slowed buyers down. They talk about how if rates were to go from 7 % to 8 % again, that's a little more challenging. So they said if it goes that high, we would expect to see our incentives increase to keep our base. So if rates go higher, they're going to keep buying down these mortgage rates to make it, I'm sure they figure their sweet spot, whatever it is, 6 % or something.

42:41If I was in the market right now, I still would be a new home buyer if I was a buyer, if that's possible. I think they're going to make it way easier on you than trying to figure out the demand or the supply in the regular market. Also, great. The search feature on quarter is amazing. So good. I just was searching for keywords on here because I didn't want to go through the whole thing. Very helpful. All right. I do wonder, what do you think happens if rates go back to 6 %? Let's just say if and when. I don't know. 6 % is going to feel like a blessing for people that are on the side ends right now.

43:21Because mortgages have been at 7 for so long. Everything's relative. So you anchor it to the high price, and you look at your down payment and your monthly payment, and at 6%, it'll be a big difference. I agree. Okay. We've been reading some good emails from people's attitudes. Last week, we talked about how rich people that don't feel rich, right? They make$400 ,000, but they don't feel like it. This person says, I have a weird thing where I feel considerably richer than I probably am. I think it boils down to almost solely to free time. I work an easy job and own three small businesses, so I have a reasonably good income.

43:47But because my job is easy, I can basically do whatever I want whenever I want. My conjecture is that free time during the day is a feeling of being rich that people want. They don't equate rich with money. I work hard, I'm not rich. Rich people are always doing non-work things and I'm always at work. So saying that if you actually have control over your time, that's being rich. Yeah, that's certainly a part of it. I like that take too. I think the backlash that people have to these attitudes, it's very, very simple. if you're making$100 ,000 and you see somebody at$400 ,000 saying that they're not rich, what the$100 ,000 income person does is, what?

44:25If I made$300 ,000 more, I could do whatever I wanted. And while that might be factually true, the person who's making$400 ,000, you don't go from$100 ,000 to$400 ,000, right? It happens gradually for most people. And their expenses rise with their income such that at the end of the month, they don't feel rich because they're probably not saving a ton of money because their fixed costs, their cars, their houses, their this, their that probably crept all the way up. So I think like that, it's very simple. That's where a lot of the backlash comes from, I think. Do you think that's accurate? Yes.

44:59And I'm actually okay with the, the other part is people always say like, it depends where you live. You know, that's, that's a big one, but, but I'm actually okay with lifestyle creep as long as you have savings rate creep too. Just keep your savings rate the same. Like, cause you should have lifestyle creep. If you go from$100 ,000 to$400 ,000, unless you're a complete fire psycho, you're going to spend more money, and you should spend more money. Yeah, that's what money's for. But you should also have, you should also save more. Like, if you have a 15 % savings rate, keep it 15%, and then your spending will go up two, and you're already knocking out the savings.

45:28That's Mike. All right, Bloomberg had this piece about billionaires avoiding taxes, talking about, like, having control of your time. So this is the lead into this article. And New Jersey's Teterboro and Long Island's, how do you say that? Islip? Islip. Islip. Airports, dozens of private jets destined for Florida takeoff at such times as 1142 p.m. or 1154 p.m. Over at JFK, a regular freight from San Juan, Puerto Rico arrives at seemingly purposeful time about 15 minutes after midnight. Meanwhile, tax attorneys tell stories of clients idling their luxury SUVs near the New Jersey entrance to the George Washington Bridge shortly before 12 a.m.

46:01waiting for the clock to turn before crossing the state line to New York. So this is the idea that you have to live somewhere else for a certain amount of days if you don't want to pay the New York taxes, right? Billionaires who split their time between Florida and New York. So they're like literally sitting on the highway because they, the New York state, like they'll track people somehow, right? Do you really spend enough time away from New York that you don't pay the New York taxes, right? For me, I think a big thing of wealth is convenience. And this doesn't feel very convenient to me. Even if it's saving yourself millions and millions of dollars in taxes, and I get why these people do this.

46:34Imagine being a billionaire and doing that. It's so inconvenient. You think at that point, you know? Yeah. I get it. It's millions and millions of dollars. Right, right. So I think everyone's knee-jerk reaction is those motherfuckers. And I totally get that. And I'm mostly there. But I also do kind of understand. It's like, yeah, sorry. I'm going to sit in this car for another 30 minutes so not to pay$7 million more in taxes. You wouldn't do the same thing? I would just hope that if I'm a billionaire, convenience matters more to me than saving a little bit of money in taxes. Listen, I'm with you.

47:07I'm with you. They showed a chart showing that the New York millionaire departures have jumped since the pandemic. And like everything else, we spoke about this earlier, there's a dividing line before and after. And it's wild. It's like triple almost. There was like less than a thousand people leaving, a thousand New York millionaires leaving before the pandemic. And now it's at least two and a half times more than that. This jumped out to me. New York's Department of Taxation and Finance has 300 auditors dedicated to conducting residency audits, and they are notorious for their thoroughness. Bank records, phone bills, and family photos are under the microscope.

47:41Auditors are backed up by sophisticated artificial intelligence-fueled tax monitoring systems that flag inconsistencies and returns. The AI component of this, like, this is coming for everything. Yeah, right. Yes. I asked Bill Sweet about this before. If you had a client in California, New York, who wanted to move somewhere that had lower, I'm moving to Texas, I'm moving to Florida, and living there more than half the year, whatever the number is, Bill said, especially in those two states, they'll check your credit card statements to make sure that you're spending enough in the one state versus the other one, where you have your driver, all this stuff.

48:17But you're right, the AI component of it will be even harder, but way harder to beat too. Speaking of California, last plug, last plug. I'm doing a live show with Josh on Tuesday. So a week from tomorrow. You take off your spring break soon, right? We'll record this Monday because I'm leaving for California tomorrow. We've got Matt Bellany of The Puck. We're going to be talking the business of streamers in Hollywood. And we've got Doug Ellen, the creator of Entourage, who actually grew up in my town and I think went to my high school. Oh, really? So that's Tuesday, April 30th, Lincoln Bio. I rewatched an old Entourage episode recently, the Bar Mitzvah episode, where Ari's daughter, is it Bat Mitzvah or Bar Mitzvah?

48:57One of those. Bat Mitzvah. and Turtle and Johnny Drama just get stoned and eat all the food. And it's just excellent. That show, towards the end, like a lot of shows, it probably overstayed its welcome. But at the beginning, that show was just, I loved it. Fire. Another one from Apollo. Younger households tend to have lower credit scores and the consequences that Fed hikes and associated tighter credit conditions tend to have a more negative impact on younger generations. So they've got an average credit score by age. And of course, this goes up and to the right, meaning the older you are, the more likely to have Ben Carlson like credit scores.

49:30See, this is why I'm an old soul. I've fallen with a 78-year-old plus where FICO scores. So we spoke earlier in the show about boomers having 30, what was the number, 39 % of their mortgages paid off? Or was it boomers or not boomers? Overall, the number is like, yes. That's overall, but the large percentage is boomers, obviously. So just another example of young people being more impacted by the current climate. Right, which makes sense that young people have lower credit scores because they didn't have a time to build up a good credit score. Part of it is how much credit you use and on-time payments and all that stuff.

50:03A few people emailed us and said, self-driving cars eventually solve the auto insurance crisis. How? Well, auto rates are going to be way lower if there's self-driving cars all over the road, right? Are self-driving cars, this is a naive question. Will there be less accidents because of self-driving cars? Yeah, that's a hope. They have the sensors and stuff. They can talk to each other. But who pays for it? But still the car driver, the owner of the car, will still pay for it. Yeah, but how is that going to work, though, if you have the self-driving car company that puts in the sensors and the monitors and it gets in a car accident?

50:39Is it really your fault if the car is driving? So, yeah, I don't know. But it feels like this is one of those ones that I think I've mentioned before. My oldest daughter just turned 10. And when she was born, I asked the question to some people. I said, is she ever going to need to drive her own car? because we were talking about self-driving cars back then. It seems like this is one that's taking way, way longer than people would have thought or hoped. I know in some cities, they're using them as taxis now, but I would have thought we'd be further along at this point than we are for self-driving cars.

51:08It seems like a 2040 story. Here's a good chart from Charter. Uncrustables are now nearly a$1 billion business from Smuckers. Wait, what's Charter? Actually, Robinhood just bought them. You don't subscribe to Charter? Mm-mm. Okay. Like most places, a quarter put an R on it instead of an E. Good. Yeah. I think Robin Hood just bought them. So why do all little kids hate crust? Do you cut the crust off everything for your kids? I do. It's why do they hate crust? What is so bad about crust that kids don't like to eat it? None of my kids like crust. I'm constantly cutting crust off in it. Like, try it, you guys.

51:47What's the problem? You know, now that you mention it, I'm shocked. So Kobe, he eats two pieces of raisin bread. That's his thing. What do you want? Two pieces of raisin? He eats it twice a day, I feel like. He like folds them and rips them in half, and he eats it like this, and he just eats until the crust is gone, and then he gets rid of it. So you have to cut it off for him, huh? I'm shocked he doesn't have to cut it off. Yeah. Well. Have you seen these uncrustable things before? Of course. Just these little circles. It's the middle part of the PB &J. Genius. It is pretty genius, but I don't understand why all little kids hate crust.

52:18What is it about crust that they don't like? Yeah, I'm sure there's a reason. I don't know what it is. okay you know what i'll take a guess it's just not it's a little there crust can be abrasive it's not quite as soft as uh you know the only thing i'm good at cooking for my kids is grilled cheese what's your secret i don't butter the bread i put the butter on the pan and let the butter melt then i put the bread on there yeah that's how i do it i didn't know that you won't do it the other way hmm about the only thing i'm good at cooking then i have to cut the damn crust off for him. All right.

52:53We got an email. I'm staying at the Four Seasons in Denver. Four Seasons, that's in a very expensive hotel, right? Yes. Bull market and emails today. Went to the pool today and got a single margarita. I got a pathetic half glass mixer margarita high school bullshit drink. The bill was$45 for a single drink. Would you complain? I didn't. Billed it to the room. Not happy though. You'd complain I wouldn't. 45 that's borderline we already we already know your history you definitely complain dude 86 dollars i'm sorry that you're too much of a nice guy to not complain 86 dollars that's that's just highway robbery 45 that is borderline depends how about this if i had if i was a little but yeah i probably would say something that's egregious he said this was recommended by the server if you get recommended though they should tell you by the way, this is 45 bucks.

53:47True. So then he said, uh, I complained to the hotel checkout and they took out, they took the drink off. So see squeaky wheel gets the grease, Ben. All right. Uh, all right. Recommendations. What do you have? All right. Josh pounded the table on for fallout with us last week on Friday. And so my, I think my wife and I watched three or four episodes this weekend. It's good. It's, it's a show that feels like a movie. Did you watch it yet? I tried to, and my Amazon wasn't working on my TV. Okay. But I'm in. Yeah, we binged like three or four episodes this weekend, and it's very good. All right, I got sucked into Office Space this weekend on HBO Max.

54:26Easily one of the best movies of the 90s. I have a few things here. Our rich talk, you know? Lawrence was having the talk on the couch of what would you do with a million bucks? And Lawrence is the guy with the mullet. Yeah, Lawrence, which is just great. Yeah, he's the guy from Drew Carey, just plays it perfectly. We all know the line. But no, this is a different one. I'm not using that line. But he says to Peter, what would you do with a million bucks? That's a conversation they're having. I almost inflation adjusted it, but I don't want to be that guy. Yes, you did. Yes, you did. What is it?

54:55No, I didn't. What did the movie come out? 1998? I didn't do it. I thought it was earlier than that. But it's probably$2.3 million an hour or something like that. So Peter says, I would do nothing. And Lawrence says, you don't need a million dollars to do nothing, man. Take a look at my cousin. He's broke. Don't do shit. Getting back to the time thing. right? Which I just, I loved that line. Uh, whatever happened to the Michael Bolton guy? He was great in that movie. And then he never did anything again. I'm going to, you're so, I'm going to guess he went off the rails. I'm going to guess it was Metal Breakdown.

55:22Okay. Cause he was very funny. And one other thing, is that Jennifer Aniston's best movie? I think it might've been her first movie. No. Big one? Nope. Nope. You know what her first movie is? What? Leprechaun. Oh, good call. That was pre-friend. So, I mean, Next is probably Along Came Polly but it's probably Jennifer Aniston's best movie. I do love Along Came Polly. Anyway, it's got another nostalgia piece for me but just that movie even though it was in the 90s still just ages perfectly. You know what's one of my favorite Jennifer Aniston movies? What's the one where she gets fake kidnapped with Clive Owen?

55:56Derailed? Oh, I love that movie. Yeah, it's okay. I mean, that's a very me movie, right? Yes. That was actually not bad. It was a little twist that she, yeah, it was fake, yeah. what do you got? Kobe watched Space Jam 2.

56:15Truly, truly horrendous. Pretty bad, right? He loved it so much. This was last week I forgot to say. He made us do like a movie night where he was like, you got to watch this. So we sat with him and we watched it. And I mean, whatever. He loved it. But it was like truly unbelievably bad. Shocking. I don't even know how it happened. I feel like it kind of got swept under the rug a little bit. Like, we'll give LeBron a pass. Yeah, I have no idea what happened with that. My son's top Tom Cruise movie this week was Edge of Tomorrow with Emily Blunt. Good one. Love that movie. He's watching that? Oh, yeah.

56:46Good for you. I mean, he's into every Tom Cruise movie there is now. Somebody emailed us, emailed me, hey, my kid's 13, can I take it to see Civil War? And I was like, ooh, I don't know about that. And I'm going to think it back. I saw Nightmare on Elm Street when I was like six. I saw 8mm when I was, I don't know why I said it that way, but 8mm was one of the darkest movies ever. I think I was probably 14 when that came out. Okay. When you're a teenager, then, yeah, you sneak into movies. So that doesn't count anymore. Yeah. Anyway, it's playoff season, so I'm probably not going to be watching.

57:17Although, maybe I'll watch a movie on the plane. I'm pretty much out. Did you go to the Knicks game yesterday? I'm pretty much gone until June. Or two days ago, whenever it was? Oh, yeah. Fun? Top five game in my life. Really? Okay. That's recency bias. Yeah. No, it's not, dude. It's not recency bias. You don't know the history of the New York Knicks like I do. It's not recency bias. You mean your regular season Charlotte Hornets game with me wasn't top five? So just speaking about like being old and all that sort of stuff, I've been going to the Knicks game since 1992. And really nothing good has happened.

57:50There's been like a few moments in time. But I never stopped going. So it's been just, I mean, you know, you're a Lions fan. It's just been torture. And we're finally on track. Okay, I'm pulling for you. I'm a Jalen Brunson fan. Thank you. Okay. So I will, I guess I'm bringing a mic to California. The show must go on. Not going to do the show. Yep. We'll do the show live from California next week. You'll have some travel stories for us, I'm sure. Check out Talk Your Book this week. We actually talked about The Bull Case for India. That was a good one. Which is very topical and interesting and right up my alley.

58:24Email us, animalspiritsathecompoundnews.com. Thanks to the production team, as always. And we'll see you next time.

58:36Thank you.