Measuring the Wealth Effect (EP. 425)

24:00Like you made the appointment? That's neither here nor there. So she's getting flustered. I took Logan to camp. She takes Rue to the vet. She texts me. There is no appointment. because it was with you didn't i got a voicemail from the original vet that i forgot to cancel and uh so you said to her i see i didn't make the appointment yeah yeah whoops okay i got screamed i got yelled at well i got like i got positive and negative because i was the one who pushed to get new floors in our house which is turning out to be just really putting us out of house at home for a while but it's once it's all in and it's it's three quarters of the way done my wife is like thank you so much for forcing my hand to do this i love it it looks great i wish we would done this sooner.

24:42But then the guy said, well, we're going to be here for an extra week probably because it's taking longer than we thought. And she goes, see, this was your idea. Why did you make me do this? So it's just a time of day kind of thing. By the way, you're doing a home renovation. I'm buying a new house. I think we forgot to mention the obvious part earlier. I wouldn't be doing this if the stock market wasn't doing what it was doing. If crypto wasn't where it was, there's no way. Well, if it was a bear market, you have more negotiating power. Yeah, but no, but let's be honest. There's no way that you would have done that and I would not have bought a new house if the market wasn't doing what it was doing.

25:13But I do think that the housing market could see a massive spike in activity even during a recession. I think that's… That has nothing to do with what I just said. But I'm saying, I think we're going to… The stock market could be falling and we're in a recession and we could see housing market activity explode and people are going to go, wait, what? More people are borrowing from a equity line of credit. There's more buys. There's more sells. I think that is a very likely possibility and people are going to be like, what? Why is this happening in a recession? aren't you going to be borrowing more money if rates fall substantially?

25:45I might be borrowing more money to do what? Yeah. Just, I don't know if rates fall back to four or five. Yeah. To do something. I don't know. You have to spend a lot of money on a new house. Probably. I don't know. Yeah, sure. If rates come back to down 2%, I will borrow all the money. The only thing you need, my only suggestion, if you're, if you're going to do a renovation, eventually you need an outdoor shower. If you're on the water, outdoor shower is the best thing you cannot possibly have on the water. You get off the boat. Kids, don't go inside. Take a shower outside immediately. Then you're clean for the day.

26:16Good tip. All right, Heather Long, the top 10 % of earners now drive about half of spending, according to Moody's, up from 36 % three decades ago. This chart is pretty crazy. And you and I have been talking about, a few people have commented, and usually we don't read the comments, but why are you talking so much about rich people and all this rich stuff? It's like, it matters a lot now. It's substantially higher, and it's kind of leveled off a little bit. I like this interesting thing. She said, the bottom 80 % of households are basically keeping their spending in line with inflation. This is a notable shift from the revenge spending era from 2022 to 2024, when people of all levels of income were splurging somewhat after the end of the pandemic lockdown.

26:54So you can see it really ramped up over inflation for the middle class and the bottom 40 % or whatever. And now it's just back to inflation levels, like back on trend, essentially. whereas the top 20 % continues to be way, way above trend in terms of spending. She said whether we go into a recession will depend almost entirely on whether the top 10 or 20 % of earners keep spending. So this is why we keep talking about rich people. And also, I think that isn't there a K-shaped recovery or a K-shaped economy in the stock market? Look at how many stocks are getting annihilated, how many stocks are doing nothing over a five-year period.

27:30I feel like the K-shaped thing is a relatively new term. I kind of like it. like this decade. I don't remember hearing about it prior to this decade. But do you agree with this, that if we go into recession, we'll depend almost entirely on the top 10 to 20 % of earners keeping spending? Oh, yeah. Yeah. But what stops them from, like, it's kind of a chicken and the egg thing. Like, what stops them? The stock market falls. But what makes the stock market fall? The recession? I guess it's just AI, but that's the thing, right? But a lot of, like, the luxury spending stalled out in 2022. The handbags, the Ferraris, the nonsense.

28:03Yeah, but you had other people revenge spending then. I think that's the thing. So is this the case where we could actually see this for once? Because usually it doesn't happen like this. Usually it's still around. Could we see the stock market cause a recession? If the stock market falls because of AI spend and expectations, and that causes people to pull on their spending, and that causes a recession. Because that usually doesn't happen. So could the stock market actually cause a recession this time? Definitely. Okay. All right. Another one from the Wall Street Journal. was this Gunjan again?

28:35Another Gunjan one. All right, speaking of rich people. The US added more than a thousand millionaires every day for the last year. That's nuts. Billionaire club grew by number to 50 % between 2015 and 2024. The story is how flying on a private jet became the number one marker of real wealth. This was interesting to me because they talked about all these people who fly private and they said this one guy, Kevin Hooks, who I guess he sold his company like 20 years ago. He's a FlexJet client, said he spends around $800 ,000 annually on private flights. He has noticed plane hangers around the country growing more crowded because of increased demand since the pandemic.

29:10So way more rich people means way more people flying private. Now I looked at this. Nick Majuli talked about this with me a couple weeks ago. So I listened to this podcast on Money Wise, which is the kind of podcast you don't want to listen to if you get very jealous of really rich people. It's all about people who have founders who have had exits and how they spend their money. Sam Parr puts it on. That's really what I've done. But if you get like, again, very jealous and envious, don't listen to this podcast because it's how the other, the top 0.1 % lives. So they said to start flying private costs around$10 ,000 an hour.

29:47And that's like buying shares in one of these, you know, you're essentially a timeshare private jet. And it goes up substantially from there, obviously, if you own your own jet. But then they looked at, this was this private jet expert. They looked at what income and net worth do people start flying private? I don't know if you looked at this, but what do you think is a net income or net worth where people start flying private? Not all the time, but sometimes. I'll answer your question in a second, but this chart is a face blower. There are 475 ,000 people worth more than 30 million. Is this just in the US or is this global?

30:25That's a good question. I don't know. That sounds impossible, right? There's that many people with that much money? Yeah. All right, so what level of income do you need to start with? They did a study, a net income, right? Net of taxes and everything. Like, how much do you take home? Or net worth when people start flying private? All right, I would say a net income. I would say a net worth of$50 million and a net income of, I would say the net income is surprisingly low relative to the net worth. I would say a net income of$4 million. Okay. So they said$2 million in net income and$20 million in net worth.

31:00That doesn't sound high enough for me to fly private. That's not high enough. Yeah. Pump the brakes, wise guy. You're not that guy. There was a story a number of years ago about Abigail Disney. I think she's the granddaughter of Walt Disney. And she talked about how she flew private her whole life and she thinks it screwed her up because she never had to deal with real problems or people. Never had to wait for anything. Never had to sit with normal people and just constantly skirted the line. I think most people don't envy this. I think most reasonable people that are successful, I should say, I should caveat that.

31:34Most people that are doing just fine don't need to fly private. Don't envy the lifestyle of these people. I mean, I think your friends and neighbors is pretty spot on. These people suck and they're miserable. And there are obviously exceptions or obviously phenomenally philanthropic, wonderful people that, you know, but as a group, like I do believe that your friends and neighbors is pretty accurate. These people are just stabbing each other in the back. It's the same people. It's the same bullshit. They have nothing to talk about. They're just one-upping each other. This watch, that car, this flying private.

32:02I think most people are like, you know what, I'm okay. I'm pretty comfortable. And yeah, you think when you have a delay or something and you wait and go through security, boy, my time is so much more valuable if I just flew private. But$10 ,000 an hour valuable? Probably not. And it's probably more than that too. Yes. All right. Can we talk AI? Let's do it. All right. I sometimes when they launch a new model, and this could be any of them, I'll chat GPT just did a going from four to five and grok has a new model and Claude has a new model. When this happens, all the AI people talk about and it makes me feel inadequate because there are two extremes.

32:38And one of them is, Oh my gosh, this new model is so good. It's going to be the end of humanity or, Oh man, this model is so much worse. I wish they would go back and the end of hyper growth or this is the end of AI hyper growth. And to me, I never noticed a difference. Yeah, same. Yeah. I don't notice like this is so much better or so much worse. To me, it's the same. So maybe I'm not using AI enough. So I feel inadequate. What do you think? Yeah, I think I'm in the same boat as you. Like I use it daily, but I'm not using it all day. But like, and it must be people who are coding and it's so like we had, we had to get new rocks for our fire pit because the old ones were breaking and gunking it up.

33:19So I had to take all the rocks out. And I look and I said, okay, this thing is, it's a circle and it's 39 inches around and it's four inches deep. How many bags of 20 pound, 20 pound bags of rocks we need to get? And it said probably five and a half, make it six to be safe. And it was perfect. It calculated it perfectly. But then I took a picture of our railing last night and I said, hey, here's our floor coloring. What color should we stain this railing? And it sent me back these really awful, terrible, funky pictures. And I said, hey, these pictures stink. Do it again. And it did it pretty good.

33:50But again, I don't notice the difference between that and what I was doing last week. No, neither do I. Okay. I have an AI idea. If anyone wants to fund it, they can. All right. I want to create a country music AI because I was never a country music listener until we started going on the lake more. And it wasn't like I was anti-country. I know some people were back in the day. Just country music, I didn't grow up listening to it. Country music in the 90s was not cool. The music stunk. No, no, no. Yeah, it was basically Garth Brooks, right? It's way better these days. It's more poppy. But when you go out on your boat, country music is great.

34:25Because where we have our lake, I'd say it's like half redneck, half yuppie. There's a very good diversification. And I like the redneck side of it on the lake because all they talk about in country music, and this is what my AI is going to be. All my songs, I'm going to release an album every year on Memorial Day. Okay? And the album's done Labor Day. Because you want it to coincide with summer, right? When people are outside on their boat. And all the songs are going to be about cold beer, drinking, getting drunk, getting drunk on a boat, margaritas, tequila, whiskey. Okay? And so I'm going to have AI create these of drinking cold beer and whiskey and tequila on the water.

35:04On a Friday night? Yeah, on a Friday night. And maybe some stuff about cowboys and cowgirls. And that's my country music AI generator. All right, good. All right. So AI is disrupting a lot of things. Here's one that I read in the transcript. In the second quarter, this is from Chegg, a company that I never heard of. I had to Google it. Well, that's like rental of textbooks, right? Yeah, which is ironic given what I'm about to say. In the second quarter, total revenue was$105 million, a decrease of 36 % year over year. This includes subscription services revenue of$90 million. We had$2.6 million.

35:39All right. 2.6 million subscribers during the quarter, representing a year-over-year decline of 40 % as we continue to feel the impact of lower traffic largely due to Google AI reviews, or overviews, excuse me. So what did I do? I pulled up the stock. I mean, obviously, this was not a surprise. Holy smokes. Yeah. And at a market cap of$15 billion in 2020, and now it's$120 million. Whoa. This is obviously other stuff going on, but AI put the nail in the coffin. Yeah. But there's going to be a lot of this. Yeah. In fact, the transcript didn't mention a lot of other companies that are just, Google is no longer sending people out to different links.

36:18They're just answering the question in Gemini. So did you see this AI usage by date? Yeah. That just shows like once college was over, it dropped off a cliff. Yeah. I don't know if that is a good thing or a bad thing in terms of AI though. Like if, if, if most, much of the usage is just college students writing papers. That's today. Fast forward. I think that this is, I think that we've got universal basic income coming in the next two or three elections, maybe even sooner. You don't think we're just going to make up a bunch of new jobs? Like, Hey, sit in the robo taxi and make sure no one is doing it in the backseat.

36:55I don't think that there will be, I don't know whom, whom I'd, uh, I'm not qualified to speak on this, but I'll give an opinion. The history of history of labor says we always create new jobs. Sometime that's going to be wrong, maybe, but I, people need something to make them, otherwise, like there's going to be riots in the streets. Like we saw what happens, how pissed off people get, you just pay people to do nothing. It's not, the outcome is probably not good. Yeah, I, no, I am, I am not, not worried about this.

37:28I hope not. I'm of the opinion that we have a dynamic economy and the transition from here to there will be painful, but we'll just make up a bunch of new jobs. Someone has to oil the robots, right? I hope so. All right, let's talk about crypto. Harvard Management Company, which oversees the university's$50 billion endowment, disclosed a$116 million position in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin trust, which is not an insignificant amount of money. $116 million. Kind of amazing how slow these institutions were to adopt this stuff since they looked at themselves as like being on the forefront for so long.

38:07They're like the last adopters. Yeah. So this week was the week that, or maybe not just this week, but especially this week, ETH exploded relative to Bitcoin. Bit underscore hedge has a chart showing the ETH volume exploding to the upside over Bitcoin volume 14 days in a row now. So I want to give a mea culpa on the dumb money comment they gave last week, but also more context. Not a full meocopal, but just, I don't know if we mentioned Tom Lee last week. Maybe we did, maybe we didn't. But - I mean, this was the idea that all the - Of all the treasury companies. Treasury companies. Okay, buying.

38:39So I listened to Tom on Bankless and Tom Lee might be the person that has gotten more things right over the last decade than any other pundit talking about the market. Who's been more right than Tom? He's definitely been more right than wrong, which is not something you can say about a lot of people. Who's been more right? Who's been more right than him? That's a good question. Because there's not a lot of pundits who have been right about stuff. So, yeah, you're right. He probably is. So, I didn't know this. I listened to him with the Bankless guys talking about BMNR, which is, what does that stand for?

39:15Can't remember. But did you know that Tom was responsible for the digital gold analog? He was the first one to, like, put that out there into the world? didn't know that all right so anyway um he was talking about the the company how it got funded some of the early investors uh bill miller is an early investor what did this company used to do because it's been around for a long time obviously did something else is that what it's called but it's been around since 2008 no no no it was a spec bit my technology yeah all right so uh i think druck miller's an early investor it might be uh pull through jones i can't remember but he was explaining that Michael Saylor laid the blueprint for what he's trying to do.

39:59And you might say, well, micro strategy is nonsense. All right, well, fine, but it's worked remarkably well. And that is what Tom is trying to do. So we spoke about that liquidity and the number of ETH per share count and the liquidity. Did I say liquidity already? And the velocity and also the liquidity. So anyway, look at this chart that Matt made for the listeners. Matt charted the S &P 500 constituents and he looked at the market cap versus the 30-day average trading volume. And he included BitMine Technologies, which is obviously not in the S &P. Look how far off the charts this thing is.

40:41It traded more yesterday than like, it's one of the top volume stocks in the market. So the thing that you were saying last week, the whole idea is like, so these companies are just going to borrow money to buy an asset. Like, how does that end up well? Right. That's the word. Like, oh, okay, you're just going to borrow money to buy stuff and then it'll keep going up and up and up forever. That's like the rational response to this. So Tom just, I think Tom, BitMine or yeah, they just did a$20 billion equity offering or at least that hit the wires today. So Ryan Adams tweeted that Tom is the first to a million dollars in ETH.

41:22They're trying to get to 5 % of all ETH supply. And if anybody can do it, I suppose it's him. Tom Dunleavy tweeted, for what it's worth, I'm still getting decks for nine figure ETH and Bitcoin digital asset treasuries that are close to being filled. No stopping this train anytime soon. Okay. However, so I would say Tom is in a different category because if there's anybody that can galvanize the crew and get people to believe in the velocity and the liquidity and the wheel spinning and dilution and more than blah, blah, blah. It's him. However, however, this will not end well for a lot of copycat companies.

42:01Like I don't think everybody can make the strategy work. So for example, the FT just did a post. The title was why struggling companies are loading up on Bitcoin. So here we go. Three months ago, George Karam had never considered for a moment that his semiconductor company might start buying Bitcoin. Shares of his New York listed business had been struggling for some time. When he read about a healthcare company that had bought the digital currency and seen its stock price soar, the French chief executive says he began reading about Bitcoin and became intrigued after a failed deal spooked investors.

42:28He says, I was looking for ways to unlock the value of the company. Sequence Communications raised$384 million from debt and equity markets to spend on buying the world's most popular token. Its share price surged 160 % of the news. So this guy just now started reading about Bitcoin? Yeah. So anyway, so I immediately pulled up that chart of sequins and it went straight up and straight down. So for everybody else, for all of the 154 public companies, according to Financial Times, that have either raised or committed to raise a combined total of$98 billion in order to buy crypto, I can't imagine this working for all of them.

43:07In fact, I would bet a lot of money that it won't. And for people that are piling in, I mean, if you're piling into these other ones just because you're hoping to save a company or whatever. I'm sorry, this is dumb. Yeah, the funding will dry up or it might work for a cop. Not everybody can have a premium to their NAV. It's Michael Saylor and it's Tom and maybe it's the Trumps, but this is... So that was just my me a couple-ish. That makes sense. Anyhow, all right, moving on. So the spread between the 30-year mortgage and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields is coming down, but it's still too high. 2.6%.

43:45See, this is how we lower mortgage rates, though. All the Fed has to do is say, we want the spread to be lower, and it immediately happens. Don't you think? I've been saying this for a while. All right, you've heard of the 50-30-20 rule? I don't think so. Personal finance rule. What is it? So the rule of thumb is you spend 50 % of your budget on necessities, housing, transportation, etc. 30 % on your wants and desires, whatever, entertainment, eating out, clothes, that sort of thing. And then 20 % on saving, paying down debt. This is a rule of thumb, obviously, and they're not always close. But of that 50 for your necessities, typically the number that's thrown out is you want to spend$30 on your monthly housing payment, be it rent or mortgage.

44:32Okay. Redfin says a household on the median income would need to spend 39 % of their earnings on a house to buy a medium price home today. And basically saying that it's, you know, it's pretty unaffordable for anyone in the, you know, most of the population to afford today. Obvious, right? You're spending a bunch of, but this got me thinking for anyone who owned pre 2021, it's gotta be in who refinanced at 3 % or lower. It's gotta be way, way lower than 30 % for them, especially as incomes have risen. So for the 65 % of households that own a home already, it obviously it stinks if you're one of these people doesn't.

45:08But if you own a home already, you are in such a good position relative budget wise. You got so it's like the luckiest budgeting thing that's ever happened for people. I mean, the average for them probably has to be 20 % or so. Think about that gap between what you'd have to spend now and what you currently spend and what the difference is. And all that money is going into money markets and the stock market and whatever, right? Renovations, all this stuff. All right. Jeffrey Patak had a piece in Morningstar, 75 % of alternative mutual funds have died. There are lessons in that for would-be private market investors.

45:45And he starts the piece by saying, on January 1st, 2015, there were 1 ,345 alternative mutual funds in existence. Those funds follow the approaches that utilize hedging, shorting or trend following uh guess how many of those alternative funds still exist 341 the other thousand or so have been liquidated merged away a 75 mortality rate that is pretty wild crazy i i think this actually is a perfect encapsulation of the what's coming for private markets into foreign k's and individuals i i i totally am on board of this as an analogy i'm not at all. Not even a little. Not necessarily that. Like I think just not working very well.

46:27I think that this is, I understand what Jeffrey's saying, but I think the big difference is, and I don't, I'm not, all right. These strategies were launched to save people from a bear market, to save people from a colossal bear market and to do the impossible, which was not have any downside and get most of the upside. A lot of these strategies cannot work by definition, right? I think - Well, they did in the past. You're saying they got like - They were launched as a result. They were launched as a result of the great financial crisis. And a lot of these strategies were just impossible. They're trying to beat the market, not have downside, get the upside.

47:19It cannot be done. These were dumb strategies. And private equity and private credit, I'm not saying that they're all going to work or that they're all going to deliver alpha or excess returns or any of that, but these are apples and oranges. I just think that trying to roll this stuff out to retail and the illiquidity mismatch that's going to occur, I just, I don't think that it's going to work very well. I think the results are going, it's not going to be a catastrophe and it's not going to blow up people's retirements. I just think people are going to be very disappointed in the results. Well, that I'm 100 % on board with.

47:56I think that people, so there was a law passed last week, or was it signed about letting private assets into 401ks? It's getting there. So I think you mentioned the illiquidity mismatch. There is no liquidity in 401k. I mean, like if you're going to have it anywhere, I guess it's a sensible spot to put it, but I am fully on board with investors being disappointed. But I also don't think it's going to be the catastrophe that a lot of people are saying it's going to be. What's the opposite of virtue signaling? I don't know. But I just think that introducing the high fees, and I agree with your point that you said before that this is going to open up the kimono a little bit and make it so these companies have to be more above board.

48:38and I think that's just going to lead to worse and worse results and people are going to go, why did I not just have my money index fund instead of this? What was I doing? So I think the main entrance is going to be target date funds and listen, do I want this to exist? No, but there's a lot of things that I don't want to exist that do. So whatever. Here's the thing though, the alternative, it's much, so it's kind of like if you invested in actively managed mutual funds that underperformed, you were still invested. You didn't do as well as index. I think this is probably kind of the same thing, only the bigger spread because fees are higher.

49:12You're still going to do okay because you're going to be fully invested into equity of something, but it's just, you're going to look at it and go, oh, I could have done way better if I would have just done this simple, easy thing. I'm not sure that private credit is going to underperform the ag. Oh, no, it shouldn't. I hope not. It's going to be like high yield, right? Yeah. So anyway, I think there's a lot of hemming and hoing. I think people are getting a little hysterical. We don't even know what's coming yet. And I get it. Will investors be better served in these products? Probably not. Will the managers be better served?

49:45Obviously. So I understand why people like us are writing articles and pushing back. I totally get it. But I don't think that this is going to cause a retirement crisis or anything even of the sort. Yeah, I hope not. Yeah, it's not like people are going to be right. This isn't something that people are asking for. So it's not like people are going to go, okay, great, I'm going to put all my money into this. Yeah. All right, you know what? Can we just skip this whole article? There was an article in the FT about the troubling decline in consciousness, the critical life skills fading out, and especially fast among young adults.

50:16Can we just like skip it? It's enough. I was going to short this one. All right, me too. You know what? It is f***ing enough. It is really enough. We understand that social media and a lot of different forces are converging and making it hard to be a young person. Guess what? It's always been hard. You know, the thing is - I don't want to like add to the misery. So I've had four or five conversations in the past two months with college students who've reached out and said, hey, I'd love to talk to you and pick your brain, that sort of thing. I'm always happy to have those conversations. And these kids, maybe this is like a sample size bias thing or selection bias or whatever.

50:55These kids are so far ahead of the game where I was. And I talked to a high school senior yesterday. I talked to like college seniors. they know what they want to do I had no idea what I wanted to do I had no clue and the only reason they do is because they have the internet now and so like these people are so far ahead of the game in terms of learning and understanding what they want to do than I was at that age and so obviously there are negatives of this stuff but the positives too oh there's a loneliness epidemic oh yeah you know what I did when I was 17 I remember sometimes being home in the summer looking out my window I did that too looking out my window I was like who should I call I don't really know anybody alright my friends I don't know who that person is right yeah it's enough yeah i i agree for the college people that i speak with again small sample size but like they seem perfectly fine and i'm sure not they're they're all i'm sure that this is not like completely fabricated but it just is enough it's getting too much too much oxygen let's move on they just need to party a little bit more that's all they need to do all right big big big big week for uh streaming and entertainment so alex morris wrote, after seven years with the ESPN Plus diversion, a product compromise made in 2018 that reflected a combination of an unclear strategic vision, concerns about business model disruption, and significant technical challenges that needed to be addressed, the day has finally come where cord cutters can directly access all of ESPN's content.

52:16This is big. We've been talking about this for a long time. How much is this going to cost? I think this is going to be, I don't think this is going to work. 25 bucks. Who's going to want to pay 30 or 40 bucks for ESPN? Yeah. That's your only way to access it. Why not just double that and buy YouTube TV for 80 then? Why would you pay for just ESPN? I think this is going to be a bomb. I don't think this is going to work at all. You might be right. Here's another one. It's way too much for you. Because you still don't get all the games for everything else. I know they're trying to buy stuff, but you still have all these other places you have to go to get games.

52:50It doesn't give you everything. I don't want to pay 40 bucks a month to watch Stephen A. Smith and scream at me all day. Well, nobody watches that. It's for the games. All right, here's another one. Paramount. So no more pay-per-view for UFC fights. Mark Shapiro, TK Group's president and COO, said the pay-per-view model is a thing of the past. What's on pay-per-view anymore? Boxing? Oh, so instead of pay-per-view, you pay for Paramount? So Paramount Plus is getting UFC fights. so you they're paying 1.1 billion dollars to ufc for seven years that is uh good for them what's gonna be what is it gonna be more overspending on ai capex or live action sports because eventually that like these places are gonna overdo it because they're gonna go listen we need live action to get people to pay and they're gonna way overspend and they're gonna go oh my gosh what were we thinking this is it is interesting although i still think uh the streaming, like today's options, even though we're probably not saving money.

53:54In fact, I'm sure I'm paying more because now I have, I pay for cable and I still pay for all this stuff. Oh yeah. But I'm a much happier viewer, much more to watch. Yeah. It's just not as easy to switch back and forth, but yeah, it's, it's, it's more, you know, it stinks though. I have the app that looks where stuff is streaming like a movie. You pull up a movie and go, it'll go. This movie is not streaming anywhere. That means it's just gone forever. Do I have to buy a Blu-ray player? You buy everything on Prime for the most part. Yeah, I'm saying some of these streamers, these movies, I wanted to watch PCU.

54:27I'm going back in the 90s nostalgia. It's not streaming anywhere. You can't even rent it. Nothing. There's something like that. All right. Story time. So one of the cool things about being a parent is seeing your kids do stuff that you like and doing it with them. Like my daughter loves to shoot baskets in the driveway. That's one of my favorite pastimes. I would go out for hours and hours and just shoot baskets. Back to being lonely, right? By myself. I had a loneliness epidemic, I guess. Wait, you had a loneliness? What was that word? Loneliness epidemic, right? But I think it's also cool to experience things that you never did through them.

55:03My two daughters both love playing soccer. I never played soccer when I was growing up. I never watched it. I was never a soccer fan. And now I love it because they play, right? And my son, God bless him, he has a little bit of redneck in him. And I say that as a term of endearment because I have plenty of rednecks in my family. Again, term of endearment. My dad was never like an outdoorsman, but all of his brothers hunt and fish. And a lot of my cousins do too. It just never, that bug never bit us. But, and I think my son got this aspect of them. He got the Carlson redneck gene in him. And so fishing is literally his favorite thing.

55:36He loves to go fishing. And I don't like fishing, but I'd like to do it with him. And all I do, I'm just there to service him. I change the hooks when he gets tangled. It cuts the line, you know. I'm afraid to pick the hook out of the mouth. Yeah. No, he does that now by himself. He like grabs the fish by the mouth. Like he knows all this stuff. He puts the worm on himself. We're getting into lures. So for the whole summer, he's wanted to go charter fishing. He's never done it. So we went on Lake Michigan this past weekend. Charter fishing. And he absolutely loved it. I put some pictures in here for you to look at.

56:02We got these huge king salmon something. Huge fish. Oh, those are salmon? Yeah, on Lake Michigan. Huge. I mean. Did you eat them? They flayed them for us. and we're going to cook them up. I can't wait. I'm going to be in salmon for weeks. But there was a good, and he had so much fun and the guys on the charter did a great job of adhering to him. But what they do is the boat kind of trolls around slowly. It idles, essentially. And it's got a thing that, you know, it marks it off and it dries by itself. But the guy was saying there's an investing lesson here. I'm thinking this. He said, because eight-year-olds like George are the best fishermen.

56:36And I said, why? He said, because the older people come in and think they know what they're doing. and they move it all around and whip it and stuff. And he said, because the boat is moving, when we get a fish on, it immediately hooks. Like you don't have to hook it. All you have to do is literally reel it in, which was a fun part. But you reel it in for like 15 minutes because it took a while because it was so far. It was like 80 or 100 feet deep. That's where you found the salmon. But he's saying all these guys come on the boat and I tell them once or twice, don't whip it or otherwise it's going to come off the hook.

57:04And they never listen and they're terrible fishermen. But he said, your son, he'll just reel it in and pull it in. And those are the best ones because they don't move around so much. There's an investing parallel there, right? Anyway, charter fishing. Buy Ether Treasury companies. Is that what you're trying to say? Exactly. Not something I'd ever want to do on my own again, but now that he's got the bug, he had the best time of his life. He told me it was the greatest day he's ever had in his life. A lot. And again, this is not something I would choose to do, but my brother-in-law came. He's a big fisherman.

57:32My father-in-law likes to fish. And I'm just kind of there for the beer and outdoors. I've also got a little redneck in me. My stepfather is a redneck. And he, so he took me hunting a few times. Not for me. I love animals. I want to shoot at animals. And it's boring. Oh, wait, sorry. Speaking of that, the first fish he took out of the water, he gets the fish out and you have to like put it out of his misery, right? So the fisherman punches the fish in the face to knock it out. My son just goes, he just goes, oh, he thought that was the coolest thing ever. I think he was just showing off, but. Yeah, my stepdad has got the big grizzly beard.

58:09He wears a cowboy hat, like really and truly. He does not look like he's from around here. So anyway, so he bought a cabin in like the 90s and he gave it to us and his sons. And so we take care of it now. And I had to go to the bank to deposit a check for something for the cabin. I don't know what it was. So I went to the bank. I filled out a deposit slip for$1 ,500. I gave it to the teller. And he said, you got the money? And I said, yep. There's a deposit slip right there. And he's looking at me and I'm looking at him and he's looking at me. I'm like, I gave him like, what's the problem? And he said, sir, do you have money?

58:53So you had no check, just a deposit slip? Oh, it's been a while. Sorry, it has been a while. I actually need to give you money. That's right. So I had to go home and get a check. Whoops. All right. Recommendations. So last week, you were like, oh, light week for you. I forgot. I did go to the movies last week. I saw it together. The David Franco movie. Excuse me. Not James. He's in a couple of horror movies now. What's the other one he did? Cabin something in a... He did an Airbnb. I don't know. I watched that one. You did? Because he's doing these movies with his wife. Oh, he directed that movie.

59:32Yeah. Did he direct this one too? You know what? You're right. he did not direct this movie Dave Franco cabin movie what was that The Rental I saw The Rental it was good I enjoyed it together was good together was a good time right down the middle genre horror thriller it wasn't really horror but it was fun and then speaking of fun The Naked Gun so that is I don't know if we've ever spoken about this that is like my number one laugh track. That is the first comedy that I remember dying laughing at. We still talk about it all the time. Yeah. So the new one held true. Like, it was just joke, joke, joke, joke, joke.

1:00:17I belly laughed two times. It was everything I wanted. It was an hour and a half? It was an hour and a half. And you know what? I know we're getting old. I fell asleep twice. Like, I was falling asleep during an 80-minute movie. My friends and I grew up, we quoted Naked Gun quite a bit. That was a movie for us, for sure. Really good. All right, and finally, actually not finally, I have one more. Weapons. The hype is real. Are you seeing this? You're not seeing this movie, but you've seen the hype, right? You've never heard of it. What is it? Really? So my dad texted me yesterday. My dad went to go see Weapons during the middle of the day, and he does not go to the movies a lot, but that's how hyped it was.

1:00:57Okay. Weapons is, you like Barbarian. Okay, I like that one, yeah. Right? Same director. Okay. Julie Garner. I like barbarians where I like this or not. Josh Brolin. This is a great movie. It really was. So here's the plot. At 2.17 a.m., all of the children in a classroom, except for one, run out their front door and disappear. Okay. So it's like a mystery, horror, thriller. Okay. All right. Very funny. Very good. All right. And lastly, lastly, I was talking about this with Chris. he was asking me about Parasite and I was trying to explain to him the plot and I totally forgot what it was about.

1:01:40Okay. So I rewatched it. That is a good movie. I think it's one of the best movies of this century. Yeah, not a hot take at all. Did it win Best Picture? Yeah. Okay. That was a great movie. I liked it. Okay. I had an email from a listener a couple weeks ago saying, how has Ben not watched Lessons in Chemistry yet? And I said, hmm. Never heard of it. It's a miniseries on Apple. It's got Brie Larson stars. and it's got Bill Pullman's son on it, who is fantastic. He is really good. He's going to be a great actor. Louis Pullman. I don't know if he had a son. I kind of didn't realize. I had to look him up, but...

1:02:15So it's a miniseries based on a book. It's about... I love shows and stuff set in the 1960s, Mad Men style. It's like, Brie Larson plays a chemist, and she's sexually discriminated against because she's a woman. They don't think she can do it. Then she takes her chemistry lessons and turns it into a cooking show, like using chemistry and heat and stuff, an understanding of chemistry to make better food. And it's just really well done. Apple, just not a Michael show. Sorry. But Apple's shows are just very high quality. Good acting. Like, it looks good. It's just very high quality. We're two episodes away.

1:02:48We cruised through the first six episodes. Very good. I liked it. Finally, my daughter and I watched Credit Kid 2. After the first, I forgot how bad the second one was. Oh, my God. What a fall off. Just awful. Did she like it? she kind of liked it okay but one of the things she said again after watching both movies was it's so funny to see all the teens wearing jeans like Daniel does his final fight he's wearing blue jeans she said no one wears like all the kids today are slobs they wear pajama pants or yoga pants or joggers kids don't wear jeans anymore I never would have thought in a million years you could have disrupted jeans and what if jeans are just like totally disrupted if young people don't wear them anymore do you remember jeans with the stretchy waist.

1:03:34Oh, yeah. That's right. You're not talking about like for like pregnant people, right? No, for little boys. Okay. I don't remember those. It was like an elastic waist, right? Because seven-year-olds don't want to wear belts. Oh, okay. Oh, yeah. Okay, yeah. That makes sense. But yeah, kids don't wear jeans. Like maybe a little bit, but my daughter's like, I'm probably never wearing jeans. I said, you need to be the one who brings it back. What a shame. Bunch of slobs. All right. What else? Nothing. Sign up for Future Proof. Check out Talking Wealth, our advisor-only channel. What else? Good to talk your books lately we've been having.

1:04:17Email us. Animalspirits at compoundnews.com. See you next time.

1:04:31See you next week.