Small Caps Are Back (EP. 448)

25:29I'm just saying like things are fine. According to this one source of truth, it's not to say everything is fine always and everywhere. Obviously, there are pockets of stress as there always are. No, last week you wanted to survey each individual American and ask them how they're doing before we realized things were good. Now you're going back to macro. No, no, no. I think that when you are talking about real estate, You are like acting as if there's one buyer. And do they regret? It's like, come on, I will push back against that for the rest of the time. I'm sorry. Those are not the same thing.

25:58All right. We need to offer mea culpa. Maybe you do, actually. You want to read this? We had a few people write on this. This was a good, this was good. Because we didn't, I guess we didn't read this chart right last week. So this is great. So last week we shared a chart for Apollo did their update on real estate. And the title of the chart is Freddie Mac Serious Delinquency Rates Multifamily. And this is significantly higher than during the GFC period. And obviously, that's nerve-wracking. So we called it out. And two people actually were kind enough to check us in the inbox. Somebody said, it's the multifamily loans.

26:40So multifamily delinquency rate information is based on the UPB of, I'm not sure what that stands for, of mortgage loans that are two monthly payments or more past due or in the process of foreclosure. Unpaid principal balance. Okay. You guys talked about this as if this is the renter delinquency. It is not. So I had chat UBT. I uploaded this chart and I said, like, explain to me exactly what's going on here. and the TLDR from chat is, this is not renters falling behind, which is what we thought it was. It's apartment owners who borrowed aggressively in a low-rate world, now struggling to service and refinance their debt.

27:23Because rents are falling. Two very different things. Right. And I'm guessing one of the reasons is because rents are falling in a lot of places. And so people, you're right, people in hog wild building apartments, I think it was like all-time highs for apartment building because rates were so low. so that makes that actually this makes sense so speaking of freddie mac my my uh book habits and not just with audiobooks like this is when i was like aggressively reading back in the day i would like fixate on a topic and i would squeeze all the juice that i wanted to squeeze out of a topic and then i would move on to something else so part of you know it was like the precedence and then it was history and then this and then that whatever so i right now i'm revisiting the you You know your middle age when it's World War II.

28:06I haven't done that yet. I know. I'm saving that for retirement. Who has time for that? That's a bear. So I saw in light of the credit card proposals, modest proposal, tweeted, like, read All the Devils Are Here for unintended consequences. Funny enough, I think All the Devils Are Here, that's Jonah, Sarah, and Bethany McLean. That actually might be the last book that I stopped reading. Whenever I stopped reading, I think I got through half of that book and I, for no good reason, I was just like, you know what? Maybe COVID happened. I can't remember. But that is a book that I enjoyed and I got a third of the way through.

28:43So I said, you know what? Great idea. Let's revisit that book. So I just finished it. Are you sure you got the name right? All the Devils Are Here? Is that not the name of it? Oh, nope. You're right. All the Devils Are Here. The Hidden History of the Financial Crisis. Okay. Okay. I never heard of that one. so from there i am i'm listening now to andrew ross horkin's book too big to fail never read that one and then i'm gonna finish i think i'm probably gonna do one more i'll probably do you're going back to the gfc i don't know why i just yeah i feel like i know i we did that already i did that in like 2012 when those books came out but i'm doing i honestly i honestly felt like the big short was the only you needed to read yeah i mean yeah so good so anyway it just it's a reminder of the time period that we lived through and how completely upside down the world was and the literal, not just liquidity problems at the banks, but the utter insolvency of them.

29:39I've said this story. The stark contrast of where we are today versus people looking for the next big short. Are you out of your mind? The financial system almost came under legitimately. It was scary. I've said this story before, but it's worth repeating. we had a hedge fund client uh we invested in a hedge fund we were on a call with them and we had weird calls all the time like i i got a new job in july of 2007 for the endowment fund i worked for like right as the credit stuff really started bubbling up like one of those credit funds blew up and so in the september of 2008 when everything was blowing up layman brothers went under we had a guy on a friday say go to the atm right now get as much cash as you can because monday the banks might not open he was dead serious and that's how it said that i think mohammed said that at one of the conferences that we saw him speak at like that was it was re and it was a real thing it wasn't like that wasn't hyperbole yes that was a that was a crazy crazy and honestly for me as a young person in finance experiencing that it was like i think one of the best things that could have ever happened to me because i saw like people losing their minds and blowing up left and right and like the unintended consequences of the aftermath of that it was such a good learning experience for me okay is ai going to make money worthless this is a piece from the all-street Journal, why the tech world thinks the American dream is dying.

30:55The argument some people are putting forward is that tech companies and their leaders become a class under their own infinite wealth. No one else will have the means to generate money for themselves because AI will have taken all their jobs and opportunities. In other words, the bridge is about to be raised for those chasing the American dream. And everyone is worrying about being on being left on the wrong side. And they interview some people who like have these thoughts like, hey, listen, AI is it's gonna be like Star Trek. Like I'm not a Star Trek person. But I know that technology basically solved everything.

31:21So that's why they could explore all these lands and like it could make anything you wanted. Um, and there's some people in Silicon Valley who are saying like, this is legitimately the last time to get well. So get it now. Otherwise it's, it's done. Can we just pause on the Star Trek thing? Star Trek was like one of the biggest shows ever at the time. Yeah. I don't think I ever watched a whole episode. Probably. I think like, yeah, like maybe, maybe like our dad's watched it. I have no idea. We don't know how good we have it these days. People used to have to watch Star Trek. like that was what a lame show for nerds but like that was what it was no offense to all the star on that one um i have a i have a new analogy for ai because like i said my wife all the time will do something on chad gpt and she'll be like this is amazing she's like i can't believe how good this is but i think ai is like rain man you know in rain man when they're at the doctor's office and they're giving him math problems like, what's 3 ,612 times 4 ,213?

32:20And he's like, 5, 7, and he says all the, and then Tom Cruise is like, oh my gosh, he's a genius. Then he goes, Ray, what's 2 plus 3? And he's like, 7. That's AI. Because every time I ask it to do something simple, it can't do it. Look at this chart here. I did another one where I tried to do the history of the S &P 500. And it kept giving me the same years twice, 1976 or 1987. And then I'd say, hey, stop giving me the same years twice. And then it would mess up the word financials or the word utilities. I don't understand. Someone has to explain to me who's smarter than me. Why is it so hard for AI to do simple tasks, but it can do these monumentally difficult tasks so easily?

32:56I don't understand. I'm pretty sure whoever emails us an explanation, the explanation won't make sense to us. Probably. But there has to be a good explanation. Like, I just want to know why can't it do simple stuff like this? Somebody said, somebody emailed us that you guys are asking, you guys are using it wrong. you have to ask it specific questions in a specific way. Like tell the machine that you are an analyst that's looking for X, Y, and Z. Like you can't just ask the question, you have to like frame it in a certain way. I don't know if that's true or not. I haven't played around with it enough.

33:27Okay, that doesn't make sense to me either, but okay. I don't understand why it can't do simple tasks. It's totally right, it's Rain Man. I finally started taking out all of my photos and things to hang on the wall. We were home yesterday for MLK Day, and I said, you know what? I finally have a minute. Let me take the bubble wrap off. Let me - Wait, can you actually hang stuff yourself? No. I can't help you with that. No, I mean, I can, but Robin won't let me. And she's probably right, because I won't get them straight. Okay. So, I mean, yes, I can hammer a thing into a wall. I can't - Not to totally derail your story, but we had all of our walls painted, and we took everything off.

34:07And even the toilet paper holders, you know? And I'm like, we need it. Let's get new ones. Cause the kids mess them up and stuff. So I'm like, I told my wife, like I'll put these in. I can, I know what I'm doing. I'll install these. So I put the toilet paper hangers in. I don't know how those hang. It's like magic. Like how do they, cause I know exactly what you're talking about. How do they go on to the wall? What's keeping them there? You put these, there's like drywall holders in. So I did it. And within a month, all of them were like, they all fell down. Like it was a one, just a straight line, you know, and they all fell down.

34:37And I had to like find the stud and I had to redo them all. i hate toilet paper holders i just hate all of them i hate i just hate everything okay hanging stuff on the wall anyway so i took them all out and i told robin that i was going to take pictures of all of them take pictures of my wall and have the computer lay them out for me which i know it could do that right it could do that i didn't even get that far she told me to stop her she said stop her there don't don't do anything that's the thing it can give you the layout and give you all the measurements and stuff and it just it's it's harder than it but so you're gonna what are you gonna do hire someone to hang your wall pictures yeah i have a handyman mike okay yep you think he like laughs to himself internally like this schmuck can't even hang stuff on the walls mike's a great guy he doesn't overcharge me okay he uh he likes to talk stocks with me so nice guy all right can you explain to me the crypto stuff with coinbase Oh, no.

35:38Matter of fact, I can't. I can't. Okay. I have not read a single thing about it. Coinbase did something to piss off the administration. I'm going to read it. I just haven't gotten up to speed yet. Could you tell me anything about it? Or we're both ignorant right now. I read the story Josh posted for us, but it just said Coinbase didn't like the, because it could impact their stable coin yields and sound like everyone is mad at Coinbase. So I don't know. I thought maybe you were plugged into the crypto. Maybe someone can fill us in. Okay. I will get plugged in. I just haven't read it yet. All right, this is news.

36:09Oh, the markets are open. All right, so S &P is, I mean, the equal weight's down 80 basis points. S &P is down 130. The Russell 2000 is positive? Am I seeing that right? No, you're not seeing that right. Okay. The Russell is down 1%. Gold is up 3.5%. Holy moly. Silver's up 6%. percent the vix is uh i mean the vix is at 19 this is like this is this is nothing but i never thought we'd see another gold silver bubble in my lifetime i bought silver when it was 50 bucks in 2011 i i've noticed that's to josh maybe i haven't said it on this show i bought silver i bought silver on the when it broke out at like 36 bucks and i think i sold it at like 42 and i felt like a genius.

36:59What is it now? 85 or 86. All right. Not a silver trader. Okay, this is news. The New York Stock Exchange today announced its development of a platform for trading and on-chain settlement of tokenized securities for which it will seek regulatory approval. I'm guessing they're going to get it. nicey's new digital platform will enable tokenized trading experiences including 24 7 operations instant settlement order size and dollar amounts and stable coin based funding 24 7 instant settlement i know that's one people will probably i think instant settlement is probably the biggest for a lot of people, right?

37:52Dude, I transfer money to a custodian on Monday.

38:00And I need to transfer it back out. And the money still hasn't settled. How is that possible? Monday of last week. I did a custodian to custodian transfer. I think I put it in motion before the end of the year and it just settled last week. It took like six weeks to happen. It took forever. Really long time. Like an in-time transfer of security. If it's settled yet. Transfer. Now, I could trade it. I don't want to trade it. I want my money back. Nope. How is this possible? It's been over a week. So the funny thing is that that's going to be the benefit for people, but then people are also going to say, wait, this happened way too quick.

38:42I didn't mean to do it. That's going to be the benefit. I don't think people are going to complain about things moving too quickly. All right. This is, well, the opposite of bad is good in this case for the most part. I don't like 24-7 trading, but the other stuff is fine with me. All right, let's talk housing. From Axios, the share of U.S. mortgages by interest rate. And they look at 6 % or higher versus 2.9 % or lower. And 2.9 % or lower was way, it was almost 25 % of all mortgages in 2022. And the share of 6 % or higher was less than 10%. Now the share of 6 % or higher is more than those with 3 % or lower.

39:18So like the world is healing, I guess, getting more normalized for mortgage holders. I think this is actually a good positive for the housing market because it means fewer people holding on to those 3 % mortgages and more people who are willing to trade and have activity, correct? Oh, I see what you're saying. Yeah, it could be. Sorry, you hear that drilling in the background? I have no idea what's going on. I have no idea. Maybe someone's hanging pictures on their wall. All right. From the Wall Street Journal. So Gen X and millennials will inherit trillions in real estate over the next decade.

39:53And they look at this through the lens of luxury real estate, but I think this is going to be a huge story for just everyone. So over the next decade, 1.2 million individuals with a net worth of 5 million or more projected to pass on more than$38 trillion globally. Gen Xers and millennials will inherit$4.6 trillion in global real estate over the next 10 years. 2.4 trillion of that is in the U.S. and they look at all these different wealth transfers by net worth. They said Americans with a net worth of more than$5 million are expected to pass down$17.3 trillion over the next decade. It's going to be a lot of money changing hands.

40:28And they talk about how a lot of rich people are trying to figure this out and get ahead of it and make sure their kids are okay. And I just think it's not going to happen all at once, obviously. It's going to be a slower – it's not going to be a giant tidal wave. It's going to be a slower tide coming in and coming out. This is like the 10 ,000 baby boomers retiring every day. Yeah, and obviously people have been talking about the great wealth transfer for years because they can see it coming. But what segment of the economy is going to have the biggest, is going to feel the most from this? I mean, because I think there's going to be upheaval with financial advisors, right?

41:01Hey, my parents use this person. I don't want to use them. I'm going to change over. There's going to be a lot of that, I believe. I think there's going to be probably a lot of young people who go, I would rather have the money than the house. I don't want this house my parents lived in. What am I going to do with it? Unless I move in, I'm going to sell it. So I think there is going to be a lot of change because of this wealth transfer. Yeah. Like, what do you think it's going to mean? We've never had a group this large with this much money live this long before. We've never had this before. This is a totally new thing.

41:31All right, let me make a lame, what do I think is going to happen prediction. Nothing. I think it's going to be so slow and gradual that these people are going to be transferring real estate, aka dying over the next 30 years. So I don't think that we're going to wake up one day with like, oh my God, there's so many homes for sale because unless we have like another COVID situation and even still that did nothing, God forbid. But I just think that it's going to be like a sort of boring, slow and steady thing. And I guess the biggest impact is going to be the rich get richer. Yeah, you're right.

42:11And I think that's the hard part is people think like, well, the rich are all going to sell. People are going to sell their assets all at once when this gets transferred down. No, it's mostly going to be rich people giving the money to the rich kids and they're not going to sell anything. Well, they'll sell their homes. Yeah, but I'm saying like stocks and stuff like financial securities. That stuff is not going to like see a big wave of selling because of this. No, I don't think so. Yes, but I do think hopefully that will unlock some houses for people to buy. in the years ahead, that a lot of people aren't going to want their baby boomer parents' houses.

42:41They're going to want to get out of them and just take the money. Well, we don't have to guess because you can just see this in the demographic data. There are more people that are going to be of home buying age than there are of people passing away and unlocking real estate. Like, it's still going to be way upside down, the demand supply imbalance. I also don't think... I don't think we're prepared as a society for the level of death we're going to have in years ahead. I know that's a really morbid thing to think about, but just the transition that happens. I saw this with my brother. The amount of things that need to happen when someone passes away with their accounts and their money and everything about them.

43:22So I had a conversation with my dad right afterwards and said, I'm not prepared for you and mom someday. We need to sit down and have a discussion because I did it with my brother. So at the holidays, my dad handed me this envelope. He's like, here's everything. Here's our passwords. Here's our accounts. Here's if something should happen to me and your mother's by herself or to both of us, like, and you need to know where everything is. Like, I don't think, how many people are having those conversations? Probably not many, right? Yeah, no, it's not a fun conversation. It makes like a messy situation.

43:49Yeah, it's not fun at all, but it makes like a bad situation even worse when we have to deal with all that stuff and like sort through it all on your own, you know? Especially since everything, in the past, you could go through someone's finding cabinet and find everything. Now everything's online. And if you need to get someone's password, It's through their phone or their, you know, they have to like, it's on them. It's much harder to get that stuff these days. I remember having that conversation with my mother. I was probably 23. I mean, I was completely emotionally unequipped to have that conversation.

44:18And it was not fun. Yeah, no, it's not at all. But yeah, like having it ahead of time. All right, getting down to wealth. Citadel Securities had a good piece here. I think Mev shared this on the Idea Farm. Now I have to request Citadel, whoever's making their charts. Listen, that's a huge organization. They make a lot of money for people. They need to increase the font on their charts. You see how small the font is on these things? It's comically small. And so they look at household wealth by percentile groups. They're looking at the top 1%, the next 9%, the next 40%, and the bottom 50%. And obviously the top 1 % holds most of it.

44:54The top 10 % holds most of it. We know that. I think the top 10 % is almost 70 % of the total. but they look at the growth in household wealth by percentage. This is something we've talked about. And this is since 2012. By far the biggest relative gainer is the bottom 50%, who's seen their wealth rise by almost 1 ,200%, versus call it a 150 % to 200 % growth for the rest of the group. Now, part of this is probably when they chose to start this because that was kind of the bottom of the housing market. So that bottom 50 % got dinged the most then. but if you look at the ownership of equities too the biggest growth since the 2010s is in that bottom 50 their ownership of equities is up almost 500 it's a massive jump for the bottom 50 and i obviously it's still a tiny amount relatively speaking i still think this is one of the best outcomes of the 2020s the fact that the bottom 50 has been brought more into the financial markets and the last one the household ownership uh by age group people under 40 under 40 is by again the biggest thing we've talked a little but these are good charts here as long as you know citadel talk to chart kid matt about the font font got got to be a little bigger good it's funny that the narrative of robin hood over the years has shifted so dramatically right they were the bad guys and now and in some opinion people's opinions they're the good guys or maybe it's not it's not or good.

46:22It's shades. But they did this. They didn't cause a pandemic, but they were right place, right time. Another weird outcome of the pandemic, though. Who would have ever thought we're going to have a pandemic that's going to keep people in their houses. It's going to be an awful situation. What's it going to do? It's going to lead more people to invest in the stock market. Who could have ever predicted that? Yeah. Speaking of predictions, my Seahawks not winning the Super Bowl prediction is not looking so high. Man, I've gotten a lot of notes on that lately. So I made that. I made that. It's hilarious.

46:55Daniel, you got to pull the clip on that. Michael's saying, listen, the Seahawks aren't winning the Super Bowl. Not going to happen. I made that prediction in week 16, I believe, or 17. Wait, are you still holding onto this bet or did you sell out of it? Yeah, I'm still holding. Okay, I think you have to hold. At this point, you have to. You have to hold to the Super Bowl. So I could take a 40 % loss, which is whatever. It's funny. Remind me, what's the payout? if the Seahawks, let's say they lose in the Super Bowl, what's the payoff if you win? So I, I, I might, okay, I bought, so it was 86 cents for no.

47:30And I'm thinking when I did it, like, this is a 14 % return. Forget about, I wouldn't make the bet if it was minus 800 or whatever it translates to, but I like 86 cents, like that's a 14 % return. It's free money. It's a no brainer. They're not going to win. And then they destroyed the Niners on primetime. and I felt a little pit in my stomach. Like, oh, they look really good. And my whole thing was like, Sam Darnold's not winning the Super Bowl. They don't need Sam Darnold to do anything. Like, they're just so dominant. I do think that the Rams can beat them. I really do. But am I... So anyway, I have way too much money now against the Seahawks.

48:14And I want out. Predicting the future is hard. I want out. Yeah, predicting the future is hard. I mean, there's some injury luck in there too, but yeah. You know, karma has bitten me in the butt cheeks a few times recently with the Seahawks and the flu and Delta. So a couple of weeks ago, we were talking about Delta's earnings and you were like, either you or Josh said like, why is Delta so much better than every other airline? Yeah, that was me. Okay, I was like, I don't know, but like I only fly Delta and I've had nothing but awesome experiences. Like I've flown a lot in the last three years and I've had like one delay.

48:47I had a really bad experience on Thursday. So on Thursday night, I made the quickest trip of my life to Los Angeles. I was supposed to land at 11 o 'clock, client meeting the next morning, then be on a plane out at three o 'clock the next day. So in the air, almost as long as I was on the ground. And for whatever, I can't, they gave a reason. I don't know what it was. The wrong plane was at the gate, whatever. It was like a two and a half hour delay. didn't land on the plane or waiting no thank god okay but like it was just it was not pleasant you know people were getting anxious it was late and then to add insult to injury you know i love delta's airplane yeah i love delta's movies in fact i think didn't we hear from the person that chooses the movies i think i came over on delta what a cool job this movie selection stunk i was or maybe it's maybe it's not to brag i've just seen too many of these movies yeah i watched the conjuring last rights that movie was such a pile of shit that i turned it off with 10 minutes to go and then like there was 10 minutes left i said i don't want to i don't want to finish this that's a lot okay speaking of movies uh friday night i pull up netflix what do i see oh there's a brand new matt damon ben affleck movie i forgot this was going straight to netflix that's one of the beauties of streaming you can just turn on netflix on a friday be like oh there's a brand new movie with highwood stars so they've been making the rounds they've been doing they've got this movie called The Rip.

50:10Did you see it? Mm-hmm. Okay, we'll talk about the movie in a minute. But they've been making their own. They've been doing the podcast tour. They've been talking a lot. It's funny. People probably watch the podcast clips more than the movie. Did you listen to it? Did you listen to Rogan? I didn't listen to it. I honestly didn't listen to any of their podcasts. I just listened to some of the clips. I haven't listened. All right, listen to the Rogan interview. It's so good. I'm only halfway done, but it's just so good. So I don't know which one he talked about at this, but this is the quote from Matt Damon that's been flying around.

50:34He said the standard way to make an action movie that we learned was you usually have three set pieces, one in the first act, one in the second, one in the third. You spend most of your money on that one third act. That's your finale. And now it's like, can we get the big one in the first five minutes? We want people to stay. And it wouldn't be terrible if you reiterated the plot three or four times in the dialogue because people are on their phones while they're watching. That was sure, Rogan. Okay. And that's obviously very sad, but I totally understand why they do this. and this is one of the reasons why every time I watch a Netflix movie, I go, what is it about this movie that just doesn't feel like a normal movie?

51:05And that must be it. That they're making, they're trying to optimize these to keep people's attention and not like a regular movie. Something about it just doesn't feel like a normal movie. So here's my take on the movie. This movie sucked. I watched it. It felt like they sent Damon and Affleck a Gerard Butler script and they went, you know what? Like an accident, like here's a Liam Neeson or Gerard Butler. like straight to DVD movie, straight to streaming movie. And they went, you know what? We get to work with each other again. It's a B minus action flick. Netflix is going to throw the bag at us.

51:37And then we get to go on the podcast tour and talk about how great we are and how we make Good Will Hunting together. Who cares? Let's do it. Everyone else is getting the bag. Why don't we? That's kind of how this felt. To me, this was a B minus action movie. And they were still like, their acting was good in it, but it was... It sucked. And to me, this movie was sad because it felt exactly like the Netflix movies do. And they all, they all just have, there was like a half hour of it where I was kind of, when they were figuring out what to do with the money, because it's like, Hey, there's a, there's a house with a bunch of money.

52:07What are the cops are dirty? And when they were for a half hour, I was like kind of intrigued, but yeah, it was just a not good action movie. Yeah. I had like, I had a decent enough time watching it. I wouldn't listen. It's fully my, my take is, was it a good movie? Absolutely not. Did I kind of enjoy it? Yeah, I did. I enjoyed it. I still, I still enjoyed myself. Yeah, it was fine. It was like, it was like moderately fun enough, but like it just was hollow. It just was like dumb and stupid and what is happening. And it felt like a Netflix movie. Like the first scene five minutes in, you're kind of like, Oh, okay.

52:41So anyway, and the director is a real director. He did the gray with, with Liam Neeson. He did narc. He did. You're saying the gray is a real director. No offense to this guy. I like that movie. Okay. I like, I saw that in theater, obviously. I said this could have been a Liam Neeson movie. It just wasn't good. All right. We offered a mea culpa earlier in the show. I might have to offer one to you, too, because I listened to the movie draft on the Town podcast about what's going on in 2026, and you said 2026 is going to be bigger than 2025. And I said, no way, you're nuts. And you said, well, the Michael Jackson movie, but here's what's coming out.

53:19There's a new Mario Brothers movie, a new Toy Story, a new Avengers, a new Moana, a new Spider-Man, a new Minions, a new Dune, a new Star Wars something, a new Jumanji and a new Devil Wears Prada. Now, those are all retreads, of course, which to me is, like, so they're probably going to make a ton of money. Well, you've got a big one. Scream 7 is going to be huge. Neff Campbell is coming back. But, oh, hasn't she been in all the recent ones? Maybe it's a cameo. Okay, this is also kind of depressing for me. Like, all the big movies this year are just going to be, so, like, the ones that I want to see, or they're not, is The Odyssey and Project Hail Mary.

53:53Those are the ones I probably really care about, but it's kind of depressing to me that like, why did they have to make another Toy Story? Why did they have to make another Avengers? It's a depressing state of the movies that this is all we do now.

54:08Well, mostly true. Obviously, mostly true. But can I just offer you some other things that I'm excited to see? I can't wait to see 28 years later. I might try and go tonight if I can. Everyone loves it. Another retread? Sure. but it's not yeah i guess it is yeah but it's not like a marvel movie uh send help the new sam raimi movie with rachel mcadams have you seen that one i'll wait on netflix i'll watch it yeah okay um there's one coming out on friday is glenn powell in it he like it looks like um minority report okay you're not selling me here very much um what is the name of the movie all right uh i mentioned scrimm seven that's not for you of course um all right it's a boy oh ready or not too i loved ready or not big ready or not guy uh mortal combat sucks oh they're making a street fighter movie that's gonna suck too Oh, Masters of the Universe.

55:17You were definitely a He-Man guy. Okay, that one's also going to be bad. You had He-Man underwear. Let's be honest. I've read some He-Man action figures. If they don't make that like a satire, it's not going to be good. Whoa, whoa. There's a new Steven Spielberg movie coming out. That one actually looks good. Yes, an alien. Okay, with Emily Blunt. It's going to be about aliens. Scary Movie 6. I'm going to skip that. Supergirl, not for me. Jackass 5. I'm seeing that in theaters. Love Jackass. There's some shit. What's more coming out on Friday? Let's do a story time before we do our recommendations.

55:47I got a couple of movies. Did you get either of your kids into wrestling, like WWE? Do they watch any of it? Mm-mm. Okay, because I grew up on, you know, Hulk Hogan and Andre the Giant. I think I made it all the way through, like, Bret the Hitman Hart and Shawn Michaels when I was in middle school. Then I kind of gave up on it because it's like, you know, whatever. So my son, you know, he loves to, he's very physical. Like, everyone's, in the winter, he feels like a caged animal because he can't go outside as much anymore. He's like, hey, every night he's like, dad, let's wrestle. Let's tackle it.

56:14Hang on, I'm sorry. Sorry. The new movie is not Glenn Powell. It's Chris Pratt. It's called Mercy. Have you seen trailers for that? Yeah, look okay. You're right. That's pretty good. Okay, back to you, wrestling. So he, my son, like, he has to be, like, he's like, let's wrestle. He loves to, like, mess around and he's like, let's tussle. Let's tackle each other and suplex each other. And he loves to wrestle. He can't. Wait, each other? He could suplex you? That's impressive. Oh, yeah. He's pretty close. He's going to be bigger than me pretty soon. So I'm like, oh, my gosh. He loves cheesy action movies.

56:44I love WWE because they have all the old ones on Netflix. So I put on like the, what's the big one? WrestleMania. I put it on for him. I used to watch it on pay-per-view with like the shady lines. Like I couldn't get the actual pay-per-view. So I'd try to watch it through the thing. And we put it on and I forgot the matches are like a half hour long. But like two minutes into, I thought he'd love it. Because these guys are flying off ropes or, you know, he's like, what is this? I'm like, it's wrestling. He's like, it's fake. They're not really hitting each other. I can tell. and I was like I didn't know if I was proud of him or should I be worried he's like I want to watch real stuff like wanted to see actual people and I'm like oh I thought you would love this you hate it so should I be proud or should I be worried that he just wants to see people actually get hurt I don't know because I mean he's 8 years old and he still halfway believed in Santa this year even though he kind of said hey dad Santa's note looks a lot like your handwriting this year so he kind of he wanted to believe but he still didn't but I can't believe that he immediately got that wrestling was fake Like I was still into it.

57:42Yeah, that is impressive. That is impressive. Well, I don't mean to throw shade at people, but I can't believe this. Because I watched it too. And I was like, oh, I forgot how fake this really is. I can't believe how many adults still watch this. I cannot believe. Phil Huber thinks it's still real. Have you seen the video? It's real to me. Damn it. That guy. I can't believe how many adults watch this because my son at eight years old saw through to me like, oh, this is fake. They're not really hitting each other. I have two friends that still watch it. Phil, one of them, and another friend from home still watches every whatever it is.

58:13Hey, to each their own. I can't believe people think it's entertaining. That's just me. All right, let's do some recommendations. Speaking of Glenn Powell, my wife and I watched The Running Man on Paramount+. That was his movie that came out last year. It was a retread of their Arnold movie from the 80s. I never saw the original. And I didn't, I surprisingly didn't either. I'm a big Arnold fan. And they tried to kind of keep with the same vibe of the original 80s movie. So it looked like a movie that was made in the 80s, made today. And the premise is just, you have 30 days and there's going to be a team of people trying to kill you.

58:41You have to run. It's like a dystopian future. Like the guy needed money. So the idea is good. It's a pretty cheesy action movie. Did I enjoy it? Yeah, I enjoyed it. It's Glenn Powell. Not a good movie. Not like a high quality movie. An entertaining idea. How's that? Okay. Know what else is coming out? I just, I don't know. I don't know why Glenn Powell reminded me of this. Godzilla minus one. Oh no, Godzilla minus, they call it minus zero. I can't remember. There's another one coming out. The first one was amazing. Yeah, Lord knows we haven't had enough Godzilla movies over the years. No, these are real Godzilla, not the nonsense Hollywood one.

59:12Okay, my son actually did like the first one. All right, so they did the Golden Globes last week. And Rose Byrne won Best Actress for If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You. And I just saw her speech, and I thought, that looks good. I knew nothing about this movie. So I told my wife, I'm like, it's Friday night, let's watch a movie. Let's pull this up. We rented it. Oh boy. Great performance by her. It's about the best I could do. It's one of those movies where they're keeping things secret for me at the beginning. And so the first half hour you go, okay, this is happening, but something else is going on.

59:42And by the end of the movie, you go, oh wait, nothing else is going on. A very infuriating movie from a plot perspective. Great performance, terrible movie. Like it's an Oscar film. Okay. Yeah, I watched the trailer with Robin and I said, I'm not watching this movie. I couldn't believe that like, wait, this is all it's about? just this okay finally uh i had i'm still walking through my robert redford catalog that i after he passed away and i never watched them all i finally watched all the president's men i'd never seen it obviously not breaking new ground here i think it won oscar for best picture everything yeah this yeah but the 70s are my my like hole for movies this movie starts and it goes and it just it's it hits the ground running and i can see why it's why so many people it's it felt like it could have been made today.

1:00:33Like a period piece about the 70s. It's so, so good. I understand why people liked it so much. And honestly, I knew kind of about the story about what happened at Watergate, but not really. Not like the details of it. And, uh, yeah. So good. I will be watching that movie again. It was amazing. You should fill it in the 70s catalog. Very good. Um, uh, His and Hers. You watching that? Didn't start yet. Yeah, worth it? Yes. I only saw the first episode. All right. Netflix does those shows very well. They don't do movies well. They do the crime series. So it's like the Beast and Me kind of a miniseries, right?

1:01:15John Bernthal. It's good. Yeah. All right. It's good stuff. I'm in. Have you seen Martin's Supreme yet? Oh, no. Of course you haven't. It's in theaters. Everyone loves that movie. I'm excited to see it. Yeah. You're a big table tennis guy. I actually am. I think I can beat you in ping pong. Not to brag. I'm not good at it. Okay. That's actually not to brag. You ceded ground quicker than I thought you would. Yep. You can take me. Okay. All right. Anything else? How's the market doing? Worse. Okay. All right. Could we see a replay of last year where we have geopolitical volatility, upheaval, quick correction.

1:02:00Oh, wait. The earnings are still fine. This isn't going to impact the economy. Off to the races. Can we see a repeat? Is that too simple? I don't think so because Liberation Day came out of nowhere. And everybody was like, wait, what are we doing? I think that it's not going to be. I can't imagine the S &P going down 10 % on tariff threats or Greenland threats. I guess it could, but I don't think it's going to be. I think something else would have to happen. Aside from the nonsense. How about this? A market on Calci for every year for the rest of Trump's presidency. Will there be a 15 % decline in the equity markets every year until he's out?

1:02:41Well, that's average. True. But I said the double digit is two thirds of every year you have a double digit decline. I think we could just see this volatility every year from geopolitics now. I think that's just the new normal. How about this? I would purely from an investor point of view. So only speaking with my investor head on. I would much rather deal with geopolitical volatility than anything else. If there's going to be volatility in the stock market. True. Right? Because ultimately, that is jawboning and rhetoric and whatever. Give me that all day as opposed to the story on corporate earnings turning.

1:03:25Because that's what really hurts the market. So, all right. We'll see. We'll see what we say. Back next week. Animal Spirits at the compound news.com. Thank you for the emails. Thank you for listening. Personal emails, personal responses. Haven't given that one in a while. Gosh damn right. Have a great rest of your week.

1:04:0011.58 Uhr, Mittagspause. Dein Magen knurrt lauter als der Bürohund. Und dann ploppt der Chat auf. Kantine, wie immer? Wenig später blickst du auf die wie immer mickrige Portion und denkst dir nur, wir hätten zu Meckes gehen sollen. Für den Big McDonald's Hunger. Probier den neuen Big Gouda und den Big Tasty Red Steakhouse mit 100 % Rindfleisch aus Deutschland. The whole car works so long, isn't our daily meal providing you!