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Animal Spirits Podcast Episode 310: Something Has to Break
Podcast Overview Hosts: Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson Release Date: [Weekly on Wednesdays] Theme: The intersection of markets, life, and investing.
Episode Description In this episode, Michael and Ben discuss a range of topics including Ben's investment philosophy, market timing, NVIDIA's stock performance, the resilience of the economy, income gains, greedflation, and cultural references such as the finale of "Succession."
Key Discussions
- Investment Philosophy
- Ben's Guiding Philosophy:
- Focus on long-term investing and the importance of having rules in place to guide decisions, especially during market volatility.
- Emphasizes that intuition and gut feelings do not work effectively in investing.
- Market Timing and Behavior
- Common Issues with Timing Trades:
- Investors often buy and sell stocks at the wrong times due to emotional reactions.
- The necessity of having structured rules for investing to avoid poor decisions during uncertainty.
- NVIDIA's Stock Surge
- NVIDIA's Performance:
- Highlighted NVIDIA's impressive stock performance, referencing its high price-to-sales ratio compared to historical tech benchmarks during the dot-com bubble.
- Discussion on investor speculation and the volatility associated with tech stocks.
- Economic Resilience
- Current Economic Climate:
- The economy remains robust despite inflation and other pressures.
- Analysis of consumer behavior showed increased spending and high demand, challenging recession predictions.
- Greedflation
- Income Growth and Corporate Profits:
- Discussion of "greedflation," where corporate profits have contributed significantly to inflation, raising questions about wage growth sustainability.
- Low-income earners have seen significant income gains despite inflation, breaking historical trends.
- Cultural References
- "Succession" Finale:
- The hosts shared their thoughts on the series finale, praising its writing and character development.
- Discussion on how the characters, though unlikable, still managed to engage audiences.
- Market Participation and Stock Ownership
- Statistics on Stock Ownership:
- The percentage of adults owning stocks has reached a high not seen since 2008.
- Discussion about the accessibility of investing platforms and the impact on market participation.
Key Takeaways
- Structured Investing: Establishing rules is critical for long-term success in investing.
- Market Resilience: The market can often surprise analysts, with resilience amid challenging economic conditions.
- Cultural Commentary: Popular culture, such as "Succession," reflects broader societal narratives, contributing to discussions about character and morality in business.
Recommendations
- Books, Shows, and Movies:
- Ben recommends revisiting shows like "A Few Good Men" and "Barry" for their unique storytelling and character depth.
- Michael shares insights on the evolving landscape of streaming services and their impact on consumer behavior.
Conclusion This episode of Animal Spirits Podcast provides rich insights into the current market dynamics, personal investment strategies, and the intersection of culture and finance. Michael and Ben’s discussions highlight the complexities of investing and the importance of maintaining a structured approach to navigate market challenges.
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For further information and past episodes, visit
- [Animal Spirits Podcast](https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/)
- [Ben Carlson’s Blog: A Wealth of Common Sense](https://awealthofcommonsense.com)
- [Michael Batnick’s Blog: The Irrelevant Investor](https://theirrelevantinvestor.com)
Feel free to reach out with feedback or suggestions at: animalspiritspod@gmail.com.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Today's Animal Spirits is brought to you by STFmanagement. Ben, I've got a blog post. Remember those things? I've got a blog post that's bacon in the oven right now. And the premise is that at the beginning of the year, why take risk when you could get 4 % risk-free? Right? That was like reasonable thinking at the time. Yes. A lot of people were saying that. Well, guess what? NASDAQ 100, almost 30 % year to date. And this is why if you are going to invest, you need rules because intuition, gut just doesn't work. And for a lot of people, when it's scary and uncertain, you need rules to keep you invested, right?
0:43Like to keep you long when things are going up. So SDF management has two ETFs. They're both active, TUG and TUGN, T-U-G, T-U-G-N, that offer tactical risk management exposure on the NASDAQ 100. Basically, trend following. Trend following the NASDAQ, it goes to either treasuries or cash during a downtrend, invested in the NASDAQ 100 during an uptrend, right? Which makes sense, because this is a very trending index, as you can see. We'll link to this in the show notes. But as always, especially with things that might be new to you that are not simply a buy and hold, you have to understand the pros, the cons of every strategy that you're investigating.
1:21So please, do your own research. We'll link to the show notes. If you're looking for a rules-based way to stay in the market when it's going up, visit stfm.com. Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing. Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.
2:03Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Michael, did we create a supply chain crisis? We might have. I think we did. I mean, the supply chains were looking good, and then... We talked about our new Animal Spirits Tropical Brothers shirts last week, and the demand was so high that we sold out of small, medium, and large already. I thought you were going to say that the price of shipping containers went back up. Nope, we sold out. The demand was way higher than the supply. The economy is still going strong based on Tropical Brothers demand. So if we follow this as our rule of recession, things are still going fine.
2:35So we are working on restocking these now. It might take a few weeks, they tell us, because we didn't know that this many people were going to buy them. We should have. We should have known. But we created a supply chain crisis, so thanks to everyone who bought them. And again, a great 10 % of all proceeds going to No Kid Hungry, which is a great cause. And we're going to restock these so everyone can have one if they want one. There we go. Thanks to everyone who bought. Can't wait to see them out in the wild. All right. so the debt ceiling deal I wasn't really paying attention to anything this weekend I was out on the water I was enjoying myself were you on the jet ski all weekend?
3:04or the beach? it was hot right? it was yeah it was a beach for me so I didn't even realize Memorial Day weekend the best weekend well best weekend of the year that's a stretch 4th of July is better but the weather was so nice but it kicks off the summer yeah you know I heard I heard some people this weekend saying happy summer at like the I was getting a drink somewhere people were saying happy summer to each other seemed like a stretch I was like that's pushing it a little the happy you know like alright right? We're, weather's good. People are having an Oberon by the pool. Great. But so I didn't even realize that they came to like this debt ceiling thing.
3:34My phone was away and oh, there's a debt ceiling deal. And it didn't surprise me at all because this is just what happens. Right. And it feels like there was a lot of brainpower expended on this thing and talking about trillion dollar coins. And now I'm sure people are going to talk about, well, the vote, do they have enough votes? And that's going to be a big argument. And can we disagree to not talk about this as a market moving event in the future? I'm out. I mean, I didn't pay attention to it. I don't know any of the details. The good news is the market saw right through this, right? And the market also saw through the banking crisis.
4:05Remember the banking crisis? And I guess if your default, which a lot of people is, maybe not a lot, maybe a lot of people hear from, the default is every crisis is the next big, big thing. And this is going to bring down the system. This is going to bring down the markets. Sure, sometimes there's a crisis that causes huge market-moving events. But most of the time, I don't know, things just work out. And I've said this before, that's my guiding philosophy in life. Most of the time, it serves me well. Sometimes it comes back to bite me in the ass. But I think that's just the way that you have to look at these things is that the world's not going to end all the time.
4:43That's a good philosophy, especially with something like the debt ceiling, which is mutually assured destruction. And one of my guiding philosophies, Ben, is risk, like real, real risk. It's never what everybody is worrying about. Exactly. Everyone's talking about forever. Yeah. That's not, that's not where risk comes from. Yes. That's a good, that's a good point is that the stuff that's true risk is the stuff that kind of comes out of left field and you go, wow, no one saw that coming. This is crazy. Like the pandemic, obviously. All right. Bank of America flows. This is from Soberlook. Did you see this one?
5:15You're a big flow guy. Huge flow guy. Okay. So this is, we talk about flows on like a monthly basis or a quarterly, whatever. And sometimes it's hard to put them into context. So this is a cumulative flows since 2007. And this is interesting to me because so 2007 to 2013, call it flows were in negative territory. People were net sellers of stocks. Then we get a bump. And I think 2013 is when people really start, okay, this whole like double dip recession is not going to happen. We've moved beyond 2008. The European debt crisis is kind of behind us. We had a leg up and then another one in like 2017.
5:50I think this market was up like 30 % that year. But then look at the massive spike in 2021, which is, so here's the thing. If somebody told you that there would be a once in a century global pandemic that shut the economy me down. And this would happen, that people would go into an epic buying, binging stock spree, you would say. You would do the Von Burgundy, I don't believe you. And if we're doing the behavioral finance thing of this, the sad thing is, surprisingly, no one was, I mean, obviously, after 2008, people were like, get me out. I don't want nothing to do with the stock market. It crashed 50 % twice in less than a decade.
6:31I understand that sentiment. For some portion of investors were like, that's it. I'm done. I'm washing my hands. I'm not investing in stocks again. But the fact that throughout the 2010s, when we had a rip roaring bull market of, I don't know, the 2010s, I think did us 13 and a half percent per year. But wait, I feel like the GFC wasn't really in the rear view mirror until 14, 15. Cause in 13, when we got to the highs, everybody was like, you know, people were not like all in. Yeah. It wasn't until like really 17 that people were like, holy cow, this really is a bull market. But I'm just surprised that that whole bull market that, you know, eight or nine years into it still didn't bring a huge increase in equities.
7:12And then the pandemic, like you said, just dwarfs everything. And it's, I don't know, just behaviorally, this is, and it's almost too bad that people weren't buying stocks from 2009 to 2013 or whatever when they were underwater that whole time. That's the time you want to be buying stocks. And obviously, this is just human nature and this is what happens. But it's kind of a shame that people weren't buying stocks then. Ben, you say the phrase often that X broke people's brains, right? Whether it's whatever, whatever the case may be. Ed Borgato had a great quote about this. He said, investor frustration often stems from not being able to bridge the gap between what they think should happen versus what is happening.
7:53I think that's part of the, like early on in my career, I met so many smart people that blew me away by their intelligence. And I felt like, gosh, these people know exactly what's going to happen. And I saw so many times where these people were wrong. I remember in 2010, 2011, like a really smart hedge fund we were invested in that, that all they focused on was European equities. And they were like, this is it within the month, the European union is done. The Euro is done. And we were like, holy crap. And obviously that didn't happen. I saw enough of that kind of stuff where I just to myself kind of thought, I'm not going to try to be right all the time anymore.
8:29Cause the, even the smartest people out there cannot do it. And I think that's part of it is just thinking about what should happen. It's okay to just let go and not worry about that stuff. Yeah, the alpha is in not being massively wrong. Yes, and staying out of your own way. So we talked a couple weeks ago, actually, about the Gallup poll. I think I was Googling it as we were doing this show. And two weeks later, Gallup releases a new poll saying stock ownership, 61 % of adults say they have money invested in the The stock market, the highest percentage Gallup has measured since 2008. It fell to 52 % in 2013 and 2016.
9:08Most surveys prior to 2008 found 60 % of more adults owning stock. This has basically flatlined since 1999. It got right around there to 60%. I think it was 20%. If I do a quick history for you here, I wrote a blog post about this. 1 % of all people owned stocks in America in the Great Depression, 1929. I know everyone thought everyone got ruined in the stock market, 1 % of the population. It was still 19 % in 1983. And then the 1980s and 90s bull market really charged it. And then by the end of the 90s, it got up to 60%. And it's basically flatlined there. Is this kind of the new normal of where it's going to be?
9:45Could we ever get to like 70%, 75 %? Yeah, I think so. And I think that this is more a story or less a story about stock market performance and more a story about the ease of getting into the stock market. with services like Betterment and things like that. Yeah, the other thing we have to mention too about the flows and this data that is trending up, and it has seen a nice little spike since 2020. People had money. It was only access. People had money finally that they could invest or they wanted to invest. So I do hope most of these people stick around. I don't know. How many of them do you think have piled into NVIDIA?
10:21Did you ever own this stock? Is this one that I've never heard you do? I never bought NVIDIA. No, too volatile for me. the stock is too good no one goes there anymore so i i looked at this and so nvidia's price to sales i think you were talking about this on your compounded friends this week like the price to sales ratio is like 35 it's it's an enormous number so i wanted to look at this in in relation to the tech stocks in the dot-com bubble so i pulled up cisco qualcomm intel and Oracle. The highest one back then in 1999 or 2000 was Cisco at 39 times sales. And that was the one that got to be the biggest stock and it's still underwater from there.
11:00Qualcomm got to 31. Intel was not much, was like 16 and Oracle was 27. And so I'm sure you could pick out another few names that got even higher, but Nvidia now is higher than some of the tech stocks back then. Also, what was Cisco's peak inflation-adjusted market cap? Did it get to a trillion? I don't think so. It was 400-something, I think, at the peak. But to have a trillion-dollar company trading at 35 times sales is pretty wild. Although, how about this? Do you think more money will be lost chasing this stock or shorting it? Can I say both? The funny thing is, you would be right to say this stock is going to have a massive crash at some point, but it literally just did.
11:45Look at the drawdown. It was on 66%. Yeah, it felt like 70. Two-thirds of its value from the high last year, and now it's totally round-tripped. And this is the kind of thing where if AI continues, it does push us into a stock market bubble, and NVIDIA really is the, what's the quote, the only arms dealer or whatever, it could go to 70 times, it wouldn't surprise me. If this is the one, there's going to be other companies that come along and have.ai at the end of their name and go crazy. But if this is the stock, it's going to, to your point about volatility, it's going to be the most volatile stock in the world probably.
12:22One of them. My God, it's up for another 6 % today. But you'd have to wonder, like, literally who's buying it today? I mean, obviously, there's a lot of people. Apple's up 25%. Yeah, that's a really good. So I looked at the NASDAQ 100, top seven names. I tried to tell this the other day. He said, Ben, I know what they are. So obviously, you're well informed here. For the listeners, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, NVIDIA, Facebook, Tesla. You know what? 55%. That's not, I feel like, you know what? I bet you 60 % of our audience knows the top seven stocks. Maybe even more. 60 %? Yeah, I'm bullish on our audience.
12:56Duncan, give us a survey on that on YouTube. Do you know the top seven stocks in the NASDAQ 100? That's all, okay. I mean, I kind of look about it. 40 % of the NASDAQ 100 in Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Amazon alone. That's a huge, huge number that I'm not sure a lot of people understand. Market cap on steroids. Yes, and the NASDAQ, as you said. You know, when Apple goes to zero, that's really going to hurt the market.
13:23It's, I don't know. I do feel like if you're looking to get the best from the winners and you just don't know, the NASDAQ 100 is a pretty simple proxy for this kind of stuff. Like, I don't know. If you were just wanting to toe in the water to the AI stuff, and like, I don't know, I'm not a stock picker, like the NASDAQ 100 seems like an obvious answer, right? Yeah. I took Kobe to the mall yesterday. And why am I saying? Oh, so there's an Apple store in the mall. And it's like every other Apple store. It's always packed. There's also a Samsung like ripoff type store. There was like, you know, six or seven people in there.
14:03And then you have the kiosk where the guy's trying to sell you like a flip phone. Not anymore. Remember, you know what I saw yesterday in the mall? Yeah. A lava lamp. Remember those things? Oh, yeah. I had a friend who had a waterbed and a lava lamp in high school. What do you think that says about that person? He never had any females to his house. I don't know. A lava lamp and a waterbed. Poor choices. Why are you at the mall on Memorial Day? That's a choice. Well, that's a fair question because it was super windy. Like super, super windy. And we were already at the beach for the prior two days.
14:38So Rob went with Logan. Kobe didn't want to go to the beach. And guess what? I didn't want to go to the beach. Okay. Because you and I were at the beach last week, actually. We did our show for Miami. I've never seen a person put on sunscreen like more two times close together. Like you put it on, and like 10 minutes later, you put it on again. Oh, yeah? Guess what? It wasn't enough. Credit to you, and you still burnt a little bit. No, you can't see it. So my head was peeling a little bit over the weekend because it was SPF 30. Here, SPF 30 is like, you know, okay. The Florida Sun said, You just need a hat at all times, pretty much, right?
15:13Pasty bastard. And it, yeah, wasn't enough. Okay. So anyway, any more for your mall, sir? Or is that it? No, that was it. I'm good. Okay. All right. So a bunch of people were dunking on ARK and Cathie Wood about selling in video. So Bloomberg had this story that they dumped it in, I don't know, January or February, right before the huge run-up. it said it's added $560 billion in market cap since Cathie Wood sold it $200 billion of course of that coming after one day when it's up 25 % or whatever I I think this says less about like the innovation fund and her stock picking skills than more than it does that like this stuff is really hard you think and how many people like a year ago were saying oh there's going to be this this chat cheapy teeth thing that comes out and it's going to totally change how people think about AI and the future and that No one was predicting that this was going to happen.
16:06So I think - No, there was also massive supply chain issues with semiconductors. I mean, obviously, that's why stock was down, almost lost two thirds of its value. It was looking pretty bleak. And then, yeah, and then the AI thing, which - To my point about ARK versus like the NASDAQ 100, I think you're better off indexing innovation than you are trying to find someone who's going to pick it for you. That's my thinking is that the winners are going to rise to the top. So own a lot of different ones and let the winners rise to the top as opposed to looking for someone to pick them out for you. I don't think people are going to be able to pick the innovation winners.
16:37I'm sorry. My opinion right now, which, you know, it's an uninformed opinion, granted, is that we're talking, we're seeing a lot of startups that are trying to do this AI stuff. And just from like that point of view, I'd much rather be late than early. Yes. Because I don't know if there's going to be any winners. I think, you know what I mean? Like, I think a lot of the value might just accrue to the users and there might not be trillions of dollars in business opportunity. Maybe there is. I mean, NVIDIA sure looks like it. But I'm just saying like when the dust settles, this might be like the airplane where great for the users and just a really lousy, lousy business.
17:17I could be incredibly way off. Well, to your point about who's going to lose more money, the longs or the shorts, in saying both, there probably will be a ton of stocks that just go bananas when they come out, when the IPO or when they change and have a pivot in strategy or whatever of it. And you're right, those ones probably won't be the winners. It'll probably be something we don't even think about. Or it'll just be the incumbents. It'll be Microsoft and Google, and that will be the thing that those things will be fine. I don't know. I wouldn't want to try to pick them, is what I'm saying, though.
17:51I would not want to pick the winners here. All right. This is a good chart. Well, I don't know if it's good, but it's an interesting chart. The number of S &P 500 members beating the S &P 500 over the last three months is at the lowest level since 2000. So we had that really amazing chart last week showing that concentration is not necessarily like a harbinger of really lousy future returns. That being said, broader participation, all else equal is better than narrow leadership. but we're in the situation again where if you're not long these mega cap tech names, you're trailing. The weird, every good investment strategy in history, size has been the enemy of outperformance.
18:42When people figure out that a strategy works, eventually money pours in and it stops working. If anything, it's gotten harder over the last 20 years to beat an index fund, which sounds crazy because all the hedge fund managers have said, just wait, When people leave the table, there's going to be more opportunities. It's gotten harder to outperform the indexes. And maybe there's going to be times when it's not the case. It's just hedge funds battling with each other. Although that's not true because there's a lot of retail traders that got involved. So I don't know if that's exactly true. And it's part of the market environment where it's these huge mega cap stocks that have been working.
19:16And boy, was that a – how many – I mean, I looked at the dot-com bubble and it took 15 years to come back or whatever. The tech stock, what did we have? A 15-month break in tech stocks going crazy? and now they're going nuts again? Was it even that long? You saw the stat about the Qs beating every growth manager over a 10-year period. It's directionally right. I don't know if I have the stat exactly right. No, I wouldn't doubt it though. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Listening to this podcast, smart move. Being financially savvy, smart move. Another smart move, having State Farm help you create a competitive price when you choose to bundle home and auto.
19:57bundling just another way to save with a personal price plan like a good neighbor state farm is there prices are based on rating plans that vary by state coverage options are selected by the customer availability amount of discounts and savings and eligibility vary by state this episode is brought to you by indeed you're ready to move your business forward but first you need to find the right team start your search with indeed sponsored jobs it can help you reach qualified candidates fast, ensuring your listing is the first one they see. According to Indeed data, sponsored jobs are 90 % more likely to report a hire than non-sponsored jobs.
20:33See the results for yourself. Get a$75 sponsored job credit at indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. All right. So this is from, I don't know where this is from. Estimated U.S. recession probability in the next 12 months. So they poll 50 different economists. They did one in January, and they did another one in April. And nobody's, for the most part, nobody's coming down. So 66 % of those polled say a recession in the next 12 months, which might not happen, but people are not budging at all on their recession calls. Where are we in the dock here? I'm lost. Under economy. Okay. Oh, I'm sorry.
21:18Did I skip stuff? My bad. Maybe. No, it's fine. All right, so this is a good one. Barry actually posted this. Wall Street says a recession is coming. Consumers say it's already here. The recession calls are growing louder on Wall Street, but for many of the households and businesses who make up the world economy, the downturn is already here. More than one-third of Americans believe the economy is now in recession, according to a poll last month by Civic Science. This headline and story came out in July 2022. We're already in a recession. It's almost a year now, and we've been talking about this for longer than that, right?
21:54I think everyone would have been – you remember for a few years there when we had the zero bound – I don't really understand the zero bound, like getting off the zero bound. I don't really understand the bound part, but whatever. It sounds cool. When we had 0 % rates, there was a lot of people saying this economy cannot handle coming off of 0%. If we raise above zero, and I probably would have thought something similar, like we probably can't handle more than 3 % rates or whatever. Yeah, I thought that was a reasonable. The resiliency of the economy with rates going parabolic is really impressive.
22:27And again, I don't know if anyone would have predicted that ahead of time. Oh, I did have another moral thought, actually. I was thinking about this. Because what powers the economy? It's consumer spending for the most part. And a lot of physical stimulus help, but consumer spending. I think this is a social media thing. when i was growing up i don't remember like kids wearing jordans like i remember i remember my my budget for sneakers was like 50 and whatever jordans were at the time maybe they were 100 bucks not like not a lot of kids had those no it was like we had like the one rich kid in our class had them maybe exactly right there was like one or two whose parents you know spoiled them rotten and got them everything but i feel like now it's like every every kid is everything yes you see like toddlers with george's now i i was always i remember a big day in my life in like fourth grade when i upgraded from nikes to nike air remember you kind of got laughed at when you just had regular nikes you didn't you couldn't see the air cushion getting the air cushion was a big upgrade in your life yeah sneaker sneaker day was a big day one time i got a pair of barclays because they were like marked for like 50 even though they were like said they had the wrong sticker on them, but people at the register hooked it up.
23:37Thank you, FootAction, or whoever it was. How many pairs of Jordans do you have now? What's that? I have like two pairs of Jordans. Three? Four pairs of Jordans, maybe. But I have like the jogging shoe ones. What do you have? How many do you have? You have a lot of Jordans, right? Kind of? I have several, not to brag. Several is more than a few, right? Several, several. All right. But yeah, the economy's not slowing down. So this is from S &P Global Market Intelligence. We're looking at the flash PMI output indicators of G4 developed economies. I quote, economic growth across the four largest developed economies has accelerated to the fastest for 13 months in May.
24:16Growth was driven entirely by services. So manufacturing is mostly stalling, but can't stop, won't stop. All right, Carl, continue. I do think this is one of those things that you mentioned them all. This is when the anecdata actually can help you. When you see packed restaurants and packed bars and packed flights and people are still spending money, that's not exactly the economy, but it kind of is. And when you see that happening, it's hard to think, oh, people are reining in their spending and pulling back. U.S. screened nearly 9.8 million airline passengers over a four-day holiday weekend, topping pre-COVID levels by 300 ,000.
24:52So we're back. And domestic airfare is getting cheaper with the average round trip ticket at 273. So it's too late to say that inflation is definitely peaked. I think that's like probably like, you know, the odds would favor that, but you know, we'll see. Soft landing, who knows? But like, are we trending towards that? I don't know. It just keeps charging head. All right, kudos to the Wall Street Journal. They, this is just Ben and Michael Bate. blackjack inflation. Blackjack players lost more than a billion dollars to casinos on the Strip last year, the second highest loss on record after 2007.
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25:35Some casinos are cutting back on the number of tables and raising minimum. So they're talking about how they're raising minimum bets to like$25 and$50 a table or a hand. When I was in Vegas, I don't think the casino I was at had tables under$25. So blackjack inflation, yeah. The first time I ever played blackjack, and I like the dealer taught me you know how if you go on a cruise I don't know if you've been a cruise before no they have a casino on the cruise I was 18 years old and in international waters you could gamble at 18 before it was 21 and it was two dollars and 50 cents a hand which is just and it was great so I would go there with 20 dollars and play play all night it's so they they also said blackjack when you get a blackjack historically paid out three to two and now it pays out six to five so instead of winning 15 for every 10 dollar bet you win 12 for$10 bet.
26:22So this is so weird. This is like, this is like chipflation. You know, when, when you get a bag of chips and they just, they just keep putting more, more and more air in the bag and less chips. Um, so when I was at one of the tables, I said, Hey, wait a minute. Why am I, why am I not getting three to two? And she explained that they don't, this is not a three to two table. And I was like, not a three to two table. Are there other tables that are three to two? I didn't know that they could change these things. She goes, yeah, right over there. So I like, well, what am I doing here? I didn't know that they could actually, I thought that was like written in stone.
26:54And so they've, they've, they're, the number of tables are down 19 % from a decade ago. So people, I haven't, I've, I haven't played blackjack a ton lately. The only time I ever do it is sometimes when I I'm with you, we occasionally find a casino, but this is one of those things. I have no record to prove this, but I I'm, I'm way up in my career at blackjack and you just following the blackjack card, you know, when to stay, when to hit all these things. I have a positive. I have a positive lifetime earnings in blackjack for sure. You don't think you do? I've never, I know I don't. I've never lost big.
27:31I've never won big. But no, there's no way I'm off. I mean, I had one Vegas night where I was playing two hands at once after I was a little over-served and got wiped out. But I, for the most part, I walk out of there with a big smile on my face and some money. So I'm not going back, though, if it's going to be six to five. All right, good one from Political. Historic low-income games, fueled by worker shortages. The lowest tiers of earners, people making an average of$12.50 an hour, saw their pay grow nearly 6 % from 2020 to 2022, even after factoring in inflation. They're saying that's significantly bigger than the low-wage workers got, even during the entire administration of Barack Obama following the Great Recession.
28:10numbers particularly striking when compared to the 3.9 % raise the same cohort found from 2019 to 2017. If you look at this chart here, it's showing the 10th percentile, which is the lowest 10, versus the 50th percentile and the 90th percentile. The bottom 10 % have seen the biggest after-inflation gains from 2020 to 2022. And people at the top are actually seeing their wages fall after inflation, the top 10%. So the bottom 10 % has seen their wages rise 6 % above inflation. the top 10 % has seen them fall 5%. I feel like we've been talking about this all year. This is another thing that is just mind-boggling to, if you were an economist or you taught economics in school, I got, not to brag, I got economics minor in college, not a major, a minor, and I feel like everything that happens in the real world has nothing to do with my textbooks that I learned.
29:02None of it squares at all. But here's the thing. This is Powell. This is Powell said this in this piece. To be clear, strong wage growth is a good thing, but for wage growth to be sustainable, it needs to be consistent with 2 % inflation. I feel like that sounds intelligent until you realize, like, guess what? The wage growth can't or won't happen if we don't have higher inflation, right? The higher inflation, I think, led to the higher wage growth for low-income people, which seems counterintuitive but true. Anyway, another sort of mind-bender to me that this actually happened. All right, did you read this read-inflation piece from Wall Street Journal?
29:37I did not. This was pretty good. A couple of good stats in here. They're saying greedflation is actually good. And this is... Good for who? This for the economy... Greedflation, for lack of a better word, is good? There you go. Good one. That's a Photoshop with you on Gordon Gekko. But Duncan, you got to put the hair on him. Average earnings per share fall 1.4 % year over year, but people thought the expectations were 5.9 % drop. The stocks, Europe, 600. earnings per share were forecast to grow at 2.1 % instead of jumped 18%. Holy moly. Yes. So here's why they're saying this is a good thing, that corporate profits continue to be high.
30:17One-third of the growth in prices in the U.S. from 2020 to 2022 can be explained by higher corporate profits and only half by higher wages. Historically, including in the oil crises of the 70s, capital accounted for around a tenth and labor for almost two-thirds. So they're saying, look at this chart here. It shows the growth in prices by compensation and by profits. And so the fact that profits is such a big part of this actually means this is not the 70s. We're not having this wage price spiral. So it's going to corporations, but that's actually a good thing because that means that inflation is probably not here to stay.
30:54Does that make sense? Yes. That's a good chart. So this also says, here's the kicker. Inflation may be higher as a result of corporations flexing their pricing muscle, but it is probably also the reason why the recession everyone expects always seems to be six months away. Basically, people keep spending is kind of what they're saying. And this is not what was happening in the 1970s. So that's the whole point is this is not the 1970s. This is why it always comes back to the labor market. As long as people have a job, they're going to keep spending. Yes. Right? And of course, like, yeah, the banks and the credit stuff, like, not that it doesn't matter.
31:30Of course it does. Everything matters. But the labor market is a big one. Yeah, but this chart is, if you're a policy wonk, it's kind of interesting. So last year, we spoke a lot about shipping costs and all the way up, all the way down. Up 836%, down 85%. It looks like Zoom share price. That's an incredible round trip. Yeah. Apollo, key supply chain indicators are now fully back at 2019 levels. So they have a bunch of charts in here putting down pressure on inflation. If inflation re-accelerates, where is it going to come from? The housing market, consumer spending, I don't know. Because wage growth is already slowing as well.
32:14I think it's just consumers continuing to spend down that excess savings. All right, well, mortgage rates. Are we ready to take layoffs out of here and bring it back when the recession starts? That's a good point. Layoffs, the layoffs. You know what? I'm not ready to retire just yet. I feel like it's been dormant for a while, which is a good thing. I think we should have, I think we should have, you talked about, we talked about rules-based investing at the beginning. We should have rules-based Google Doc stuff here. If we haven't mentioned it in a month, it's gone. I'm not ready. I'm sorry. Okay.
32:46uh the average 30 year is now i think the last time i saw was 7.14 percent highest of the year i can't and the spread between treasuries keeps growing because treasuries are not growing this much the it's a mortgage so yeah this mortgage news daily has a daily rate and it was above seven percent which is just insane okay what's this buy versus rent thing look at this chart the mortgage this is from nick garely one on twitter mortgage rates back to seven percent meaning that the cost to buy a house in america is now approaching twenty seven hundred twenty seven hundred dollars a month when including mortgage tax insurance and maintenance meanwhile cost rent is 1850 biggest gap we've ever seen something has to break i continue to not like does something have to break i mean this chart is this chart is wild i'm just asking No, obviously it doesn't because rates have gone from 3 % to 7%.
33:42Prices have gone up 50 % and it hasn't broken yet. Yeah, that's a good point. I feel like if something was going to break, it's a structural thing. There's too much demand. There's too many millennials. And I do think that if rates stayed above 7 % for the next two years or something, yeah, prices would continue to come down and activity would be slow and the housing market would essentially be broken, but not break like prices falling 30%. Well, but this has had an impact on home purchase applications. You see the next chart? Yes. Which makes sense. Yeah, so rates go down, activity picks up, rates go up, activity falls.
34:20That's how it's going to be. So Redfin has their home housing payments, and it shows by year, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, based on the median home price and the prevailing mortgage rates, what the housing payment is. This is bananas. My God. In 2020, the average was less than$1 ,500 at this time. Now it's$2 ,600, and that's at 6.6 % rates. It's going to be higher. I just, I don't know. I really do feel for anyone who's in the market for a house right now because this is just, it's the worst of all worlds. Yeah, I mean, homebuyers are now getting a real deal. Yeah. Not fair. Life's not fair. Okay, U.S.
35:11home prices were 0.7%, the smallest 12-month increase since 2012. But we're seeing declines in Seattle down 12%, San Francisco down 11%, Vegas and Portland down 5%. It's like not enough, though. All right, so this is good. At least... I don't know. LA, if you've been waiting for a house in LA for a while and prices rose 40%, now they're down three, do you feel better? I mean, right? You need prices to fall 30 % to feel better about this, not three. Well, how about this? So Zillow's forecast model, this is from Lance Lambert's, Lance Lambert, excuse me. Zillow's forecast model predicts rising home prices between April 2023 and April 2024 and 390 of the nation's 400 largest housing markets.
36:02Well, that's not great. And of course, this is just a prediction, but my God. Look at this one. Chase Emerson tweeted this out. Toll Brothers actually raised home prices by an average of$25 ,000 per house over the past quarter. They're also raising their guidance for gross margins, new home deliveries, and new home prices for the rest of the year. I think home builders realize now that like, oh, we're the only game in town here. And they're actually raising, there's a builder by me who just keeps raising prices. Like we, you know, you get the Zillow alerts and there's a subdivision that I watch, like new phase of houses going up.
36:35And the prices over the last year are probably up, I don't know, 15 to 20%. Stock is up 37%. On the call last week, an analyst from UBI said, have you seen any impact of demand thus far? And if rates sort of stay at 7%, would you expect incentive activity and cancellation rates to pick back up again for the industry? And the CEO of Toll Brothers said, we have not seen any drop in activity over the last few weeks. All right. So I have a new. If you build it, they will come. I think it's the only game in town right now. I'll say, OK, so you had your house that we were watching on your block for what, five months or something that finally sold?
37:14At least, yeah. You said it was like an insanely, we have one that went up on my block. It's a for sale by owner, and it's probably$250 ,000 over what it should be going for. And so this is my new Ben's housing market watch to see what this actually goes for. It's an insane price. How big a house? It's like a close to, what did we say mansion was? 5 ,000 square feet? It's close to that. It's a big house. but it's, yeah, it's still way too high of a price for West Michigan. 1.4? I think it was 1.1. That's way too high of a price for Grand Rapids and Michigan. Right. We shall see. Wow, look at this chart.
37:59Alex Thomas tweeted, Ouch. One in every five flipped homes was sold at a loss in the first quarter of 2023. Holy moly. I feel like that's the way it should be, though. Like flipping a house. I don't know. Remember all the, did you ever get into those house flipping shows on TLC? No. Like I remember getting into those like 06, 07. These, they would come in and cut corners. And I don't know. The whole house flipping thing to me is, is never really made sense. Like I wouldn't want to buy a house that got flipped. However, Ben, the other day, so I've said this before, but I am not a, I am not a scroller of TV.
38:41I don't think most people are anymore, right? Who scrolls? I watch what I watch. I don't flip through. You know the worst scrolling experience ever in a hotel? It takes like six seconds to change every channel. We were trying to scroll in a hotel. Yeah, you're right. How come Mario Lopez is the default? Every hotel in America. Every time you turn on a TV at a hotel, you see Mario Lopez telling you what shows to watch. I mean, how do you get that gig? And how come every TV in a hotel is an LG? The only time you ever see LG TVs in a hotel. So anyway, so I was scrolling. It must have been at the hotel.
39:21And Pawn Stars is still kicking. I used to love that show. I mean, who didn't? But it's been like, what is it, year 20 at this point? What are these? How is that still interesting? I never got into that one. Never? All right. Personal finance. Let's get into this. Yeah. So we had Ramit Sethi in Animal Spirits a couple weeks ago. and we put it out on YouTube, and then Nicole, our social media manager, put it out on the compound feed, and I asked Ramit a question. I said, I've seen these studies that say if you teach personal finance to high school students or to anyone, it doesn't really stick, or it only just makes them more overconfident.
39:59It doesn't actually help their financial habits. And so I always thought, like, that doesn't make any sense to me. Like, we should be teaching personal finance to people. And I asked Ramit about this, and he said, no, I actually don't think we should. And I actually thought he made some valid points. I didn't agree with everything. His points were basically how are we going to decide on who teaches what, and do teachers in America really have the ability to teach this anyway, and most people don't need to learn about this stuff until they actually have to experience it. And it's going to go right over their head, in one ear, out the other.
40:35and holy cow do people have strong opinions on this. I was surprised about this. This video got a million views and people were commenting up and down my Twitter because I was tagged on this. You don't ever check your Twitter mentions anymore. And a lot of people were teachers saying, listen, I teach this. We had students chiming in and saying, I learned from this teacher. And so people had very strong opinions about this, which I was surprised about. I did look at some of the things and people were like super nasty. There were some nasty comments. I don't know. I didn't think what he said was that offensive.
41:08You're allowed to disagree with somebody. I didn't think it was that offensive. There was people who took, I think it was teachers took a lot of offense. But I think you can say, like, I'm a teacher who knows how to do this and I stand out. And that's my point is that, but to his point, there's probably not enough teachers that have the ability to teach this. But I don't think we should not try, though. I haven't thought about, I haven't spent a lot of time thinking about should personal finance be taught in school? So maybe you don't like my take. that's fine too. Please don't clown emoji me.
41:35Although if you want, I guess you can. So here's my take. I used to be of the opinion that what do kids learn? Wow, this is about sound bad. I was a really bad student. This might surprise you that I have attention issues. So I did not retain much of what I was taught in school. And so I don't know that teaching personal finance would really do anything? Would it sink in? That was my take. And then I was like, but wait a minute. But just because I was a horrible student doesn't mean that a lot of other people can't benefit from being taught the basics of personal finance. Furthermore, we teach biology and chemistry and shit that you will never, ever, ever use ever again.
42:22And so if you teach personal finance and only 10 % of students take something away from it, well that's that's great so that's my thinking too if so like why not why not teach it yes why not teach it yeah we teach people about taxes and budgeting and stuff and 90 of the people it goes in one ear not the other but 10 it's like oh i'm thinking about this stuff and i remember it permeates that's i went i had to read where the red fern grows in a tale of two cities and refer grows i know point taken point taken dante's inferno all this stuff that was useless to me that I think if, again, if 10 % of students latch onto this and like are more thoughtful about it when they, oh yeah, that's right.
43:01And maybe I should look into this more. I think that's a win. One of the points that he made that I thought was sort of, was reasonable was a lot of people don't even, we can't even agree on the basics of personal finance. True. We can't agree on the basics of a lot of stuff we teach. I think that's a reason to not try. But I don't, yeah, I don't, the vitriol with which he got some comments. I thought people – That was a bit over the top, I thought. Okay. Speaking of my lack of attention to detail, I was looking for straws. I'm like, Robin goes, give me a straw. So we have like a pantry. I'm like, I don't know where they are.
43:37And she had a great line. She said, if you knew where they were, then you know where they'd be. I was like, well, yeah, but I don't know where they are. She kind of got you there. I was in Target the other day, and I feel like the electronic section in Target keeps getting smaller and smaller, as it should. I can't imagine that their electronic appliances are doing that well. But they still sell DVDs, and I saw Cocaine Bear. I saw Cocaine Bear. And I can't imagine – I really, really, really can't imagine the person that would purchase a Cocaine Bear DVD. And then put it in their little stand next to the TV to show it off?
44:16Yeah. Where is this one going to go? What is this, 2002? I can't remember what book it was. I was reading one of the books on the streaming war, and DVD sales are one of the reasons that we have such crappy movies now because even if a film bombed at the box office back in the day, most of the time they could actually count on DVD sales to make up for it. And the margins on DVD sales were enormous, and that's one of the reasons that we don't have such good movies anymore because they have to go for the sure thing. You can't put out a comedy anymore that's going to make$20 million at the box office.
44:48And then$100 million on DVD sales or whatever, because that doesn't happen anymore. Yeah. All right. We spoke about Netflix briefly last week in terms of their transition to disallowing sharing and ads. And Beth Kinding tweeted, Netflix revealed 5 million ad-tier subscribers last week per Reuters at$7 a month. That's already at a$100 million quarterly run rate and will monetize at a higher rate than other plans, potentially boost in the bottom line. in the stock had a hell of a week based on that. So as a shareholder, I like that. What's that? Okay. You like saying that about Netflix. As a shareholder?
45:27Yes. Just facts. What's the meme of the guy? He's standing on the porch looking down on people in his English attire. Although I do stand by my comment the other day. So Warner Brothers looks disgusting. Paramount looks disgusting. And Disney, I mean, maybe it is a value trap. So I also own Disney. I might have to take the L on Disney because I was doing a victory lap for a while because I said Disney Plus is going to be huge. And they broke through any of the highest expectations you could imagine for a number of subscribers. And it did nothing for them because they didn't charge enough. Technically, the stock looks like a mess.
46:09And if it breaks its recent support, I know this is whatever it could go a lot lower so I'm not sure I mean I probably should sell but this wasn't a trade for me but I don't know the business is a challenge and it might just be a value trap so alright here's something I was wrong about in the past week or so the first time I went to go log on to HBO Max like 10 days ago and it said okay you have to now download the Max app from HBO Max and it automatically downloaded does it sync to your because I haven't done it yet does it sync to your It automatically did, yes. But it was so glitchy, and the picture looked bad, and it was stopping.
46:46And I can't believe that on Sunday night, the succession finale didn't go out because people watching. I was shocked that it didn't go out, which we're going to get to. They bungled the shit out of this. Ben Gilbert tweeted the slow descent into madness, and it's four pictures. HBO Go, HBO Now, HBO Max, Max. Why would they kill the name HBO? I don't know why they just don't call it HBO. It is bizarre to me. All right, good one from the Compound Survey Channel. Which is weird to do by yourself? Go to a movie, go to a sporting event. Almost 2 ,000 voters. 74 % said go to a sporting event. Kind of agree.
47:21Did you get any weird looks? You're sitting at the heat game by yourself? None. But no, I agree with that. It's way weirder to go to a sporting event alone. All right, quick feedback from the pod today and Michael's complaints about the ticket site that shall not be named. Oh man, we had so many people jumping on your side of the ship for this thing. Like, I can't stand this. Last year, I posted tickets to a concert on various ticket resale sites that sold on a competitor. And I failed to bring my post down in enough time as a buyer purchased them from the ticket company who shall not be named, maybe an hour or two after I had sold them via SeatGeek or something.
47:57So the ticket company who shall not be named said I had failed to hold up my end of the bargain and charged me the amount the buyer paid for my tickets as a penalty for not selling my ticket. After listening to Michael's story on the heat tickets. And based upon my experience, are we now to believe that the ticket provider who shall not be named would not refund Michael and yet still penalize the seller for not completing the sale? So they did to this guy what you wanted them to do to you last week. Yeah, which thereby means that they collect double the amount of the sale for a sale that did not occur.
48:26Essentially, a seller lists tickets for$100, buyer pays$100, seller does not complete the sale, seller is penalized$100, and buyer is not given a refund. I would go to my credit card company immediately and tell them to void that transaction. That's crap. Yeah. So this is timely. Wall Street Journal wrote an article about Taylor Swift. Nine days before she was scheduled to take her 17-year-old daughter to see Taylor Swift in concert in Philadelphia, Janine Travia realized that the pair of nosebleed tickets for which she paid a total of$1 ,000 were canceled. StubHub, the resale site where she had purchased tickets after failing to score face value seats on Ticketmaster told her via email that she was entitled to alternative comparable tickets, but there were none left anywhere near the price she had paid originally.
49:11After days of refreshing the site and desperately asking around parent groups at one point, offering her best friend $1 ,000 for her ticket, she sprung for two floor tickets totaling$5 ,500. StubHub later refunded Travia about$4 ,500 toward the difference in price. Oh, good for them. Okay. But this Taylor Swift stuff is nuts. So dollar sales for Taylor Swift's tour this year are seven times out of Bruce Springsteen, eight times Morgan Whalen, who I don't know who that is. And Coldplay, nine times Adele. I am definitely middle-aged because I don't know who that person is. And Beyonce. You don't know who Adele is?
49:44No, I know Adele. I don't know Morgan Whalen. Oh, okay. And 13 times what this year's Super Bowl did, according to StubHub. Okay. But this is kind of nuts. So StubHub said 70 % of orders for Taylor Swift tickets on its platform are fan sellers, as opposed to professional ticket brokers, double what it normally sees. And this is sending all sorts of glitches, as you can imagine. So my daughter, my nine-year-old, is a huge Taylor Swift fan. And I was always kind of like, eh, it's the new music stuff. She listens to Taylor Swift all the time. And I've totally come around. Her music is good. That's not making a big leap there.
50:20But it would have been nice to see her be like, I'm not selling my tickets for any more than$50 a ticket or something like that. Just put a ceiling on it and don't allow resales or something. I don't know. No, this kind of, the prices of the tickets to me is kind of gross. I don't like it. Here's this, the coup de grace. StubHub's penalties for sellers not delivering tickets range by the degree of error and end result for the buyer. The company can charge the seller what it costs to replace the ticket. In many cases, more than five times the seller's originally listed price. So this article from the Wall Street Journal corroborates my experience, so it's not very kind.
50:59All right, another poll. You eat alone at a restaurant and they add 20 % gratuity to the bill. Fair or not fair? And 87 % said not okay. So somebody emailed us. This also makes sense to me. We had a lot of people say this. They said, I think they auto add the 18 % to 20 % tip in most places here because it is tourist heavy and international tourists don't typically tip. And if they do, it is under 10%. So the restaurants auto add it to satisfy the staff. A lot of people said it was a Miami thing. I would just like to see a sign. Tip automatically added. I'd like to give a heads up. Yeah, that's okay.
51:30I get it. We know that you go line by line on every bill because the price of the tequila. You have to look. Oh, no, I don't. We were at the bar in Florida getting a nice Miami Vice for lunch, and you saw Kase Azul, and you said, hey, how much for Kase Azul? I'm just curious. You've now price checked everywhere we're going. Wouldn't you say$60 after taxes? Yeah, that's a lot. And you said$87 or whatever you paid in Chicago,$86. And she said, that's crazy. Yeah. But$60, that's fair. Okay, recommendations. What do you got, Ben? All right. I did watch, I was having a hard time finding a movie on Delta on my flight home last week and I got sucked into A Few Good Men.
52:10I haven't watched it in forever. Ah, so good. One of the, is, I think the scene with Cruise and Nicholson at the end is one of the best scenes in movie history. And everyone remembers the Jack line, obviously, but Cruise, toe to toe the whole time when he's yelling back at him, just, I got, I was watching it on the, I got chills watching it on my flight on a little six-inch screen. Do your recommendations now because I want to talk about two finales and give a spoiler alert. So you go ahead. Once again, I'm dry because I've just been watching basketball and Succession. I noticed... You see this...
52:48He's the poor man's Liam Neeson. You see this... My brain's broken. What is this called? An advertisement, I guess? But what is it actually called? A movie poster? I don't know. It's a movie poster. There you go. Gerard Butler is in Kandahar. And this is the tagline. 400 miles, 30 hours, a race for survival. I am automatically in. I'm sorry. This is going to be terrible. I gave up on the, it was like White House Down or something where he's protecting the, he's a Secret Service guy. Terrific movie. That was my last Gerard Butler. I'm sorry. I've got a soft spot in my heart for this guy. I know.
53:24All right. All right. We're talking about succession. We're not going to talk a lot, but let's do a spoiler alert here. Duncan put it up. Way to beat. Way to beat. So if you don't want to hear our thoughts in succession, you haven't seen it yet. But honestly, if you haven't seen it yet, what are you doing? All right. I liked the finale. I loved the last season. I thought the show was, it's on my Mount Rushmore definitively. I actually thought the second to last episode, and I hate when people call it penultimate. But I just, it's such a, every TV person, the penultimate episode of Succession, I can't do it.
54:00It's the Winnie the Pooh meme. Second to last, I thought that was better than the finale. But I didn't, like, guess how it was going to end because I didn't care, really. But I liked how they ended it, and I thought it fit with the show. And it's the best written, best acted show I've ever seen. And the craziest thing is, is none of the characters were likable. And they still made you care about the show, which I think is just like Breaking Bad, you liked some of the characters. Sopranos, you loved a lot of the characters. The Wire, you loved a lot of the characters. Mad Men, you loved a lot of the characters.
54:34You didn't love any of these characters, really. And you still - Well, what you mean is, no, you love the characters, but you weren't rooting for any of them. They're all terrible people. They were terrible people, but they took turns being the most deplorable. And you still wanted to know what was going to happen to them. And I thought that – I actually thought the way that they did it – and did you listen to the last five minutes after the show where the creator talked about like he kind of explained where everyone ended up and why they ended up? And I thought that was worth the Jesse Armstrong guy listening to.
55:03But I just thought Tom taking the seat of the throne was – I don't know. I thought it was perfect. I liked it. Plus, Tom is from the Midwest. So he elbowed his way in and pushed the coastal elites out of the way. I had two thoughts. the show could not have gone on without Logan. No, I thought it definitely sputtered there for a couple episodes mid-season. And it finished wrong, but yeah, killing him off early was like a really good idea. But yeah, you're right, it couldn't have gone on. Actually, three thoughts. I thought Kendall was going to kill himself at the end of the vote. I thought he was going to die too.
55:43And then lastly, the only thing that I didn't like, and I like Skarsgård a lot as an actor, I just didn't buy his character like I just didn't think it was effective I think it just didn't work for me but it's a nitpick I guess they probably took the kooky tech billionaire thing a little too far I think that guy's a fantastic actor though I think he's really good I just didn't like his character especially on the second to last the funeral episode I thought the speeches the acting was just phenomenal anyway I am bone dry should I revisit Barry because I've got no shows Okay, so the Barry finale was also this weekend.
56:20I can't believe they did two finales on Memorial Day weekend. Is it worth me? I left the show with a smile on my face and not in the way you'd think. So it was very, I said it got very dark. I think you should watch it. Okay, okay. I think you could even watch the last two episodes if you didn't want to watch the whole thing. No, I'm not doing that. Okay, so watch it. I'll watch it. And the end of the show made me laugh, like in a dark, dark way. but like the last 10 minutes of the show after it was done, my wife and I turned to each other and we just said, what a weird, weird show. It's unlike anything we've ever watched.
56:54And so I didn't come away being like, that show was great. But I came away going, I've never seen a show like that before. And the ending made me laugh. All right, all right, say no more. I think it's worth revisiting for you. All right, animalspiritspod.gmail.com. Thank you very much for listening and we'll see you next time.
57:17Could be better.
From the publisher
On today's show, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss Ben's guiding philosophy on life and markets, why people buy and sell stocks at the wrong times, NVIDIA's crazy run, why the economy remains so resilient, historic income gains at the bottom, greedflation, The Succession finale and more. Thanks to STF Management for sponsoring this episode. Visit https://stfm.com/ to learn more about their ETFs.
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