The Bears Capitulate (EP.390)

24:44Here's some other stats. Kind of back up the last conversation with Ed on this. here's an interesting one so pranav guy who's a guy at kelk bench who did this for us a few years ago and he actually followed up and he said five years ago for you and michael i created this thing where i showed net income by the top 25 companies in the s &p every year and he showed that the top 25 companies in the s &p now make up 49 of net income and that's been pretty stable for the past 10 years or so but guess what percentage of the market cap those top 25 make 49 they make up 49 percent of the market cap and 49 percent of the income it it's it's a perfect relationship but ben i thought it was all monetary policy so these companies are bigger and that's not to say these companies are going to stay on top forever they probably won't so with all of that being said with all of that being said um uh how do i feel about you know this continuing indefinitely listen we just had a up 20 year and up 30 year i can't play god i can't determine where the market goes.

25:50But if I had it my way, you know what I would love? Going to my head, market feels a little rich here.

25:59What if, you know what would be wonderful if I could do the puppet master thing? Let's have earnings outpace multiples next year. Let's have earnings go up more than the multiples do. Let's have earnings grow 13 % and the market grow nine. That's happened before, where earnings grow more than the market. Now, given that we are in the midst of a revolution, I would say that it's probably highly unlikely. If earnings grow at 30%, the multiples are going to go up even further still. But, you know, this was a weekend that I had a lot of introspection and a lot of reflection on. Like, when we were writing this stuff, I don't know about you, man, but I was – I pressed send and I went like – To your point, it was some very smart, very well-educated academics and practitioners and investors.

26:46And yeah, we were writing this stuff in like 2015 saying, hey, listen, maybe the CAPE stuff is wrong. And yeah, I feel pretty vindicated. But we were just saying you have to provide context. You can't just look at this number. The markets are not that easy. You can't look at one variable and say, that's it. Time to get out. Markets are valued. It doesn't work like that. Yeah. So there we go. All right, Ben. There's a great chart from Jeffrey Patak. showing here's a timeline of, here's a time lapse, excuse me, of net assets in single stock, leveraged long ETFs broken down by reference stock. Accurate net assets have risen 12 times over the past 12 months.

27:30I would love to know where these trades are being executed. And this chart only goes back to 2022 because these are obviously relatively new. You couldn't do this in the past, right? Or just no one did. So the growth here is just insane. So NVIDIA accounts for almost$8 billion. MicroStrategy is almost$5 billion. and Tesla is over four. So those three single-stock ETFs that are leveraged count for 85 % of all assets. Holy smokes. And here's, look at this next chart. And the crypto ones are coming, obviously, right? Like Bitcoin leverage is going to be here next, don't you think? Well, microstrategy is in here.

28:03Wow. Microstrategy is already there. Assets in, this is Bloomberg, assets in leveraged long ETFs divided by assets in leveraged short products. And look at that ratio. That is, whoo, whenever the top does come in the in the in the market the floor falls out from the market the tops the stuff will be really easy for people to point to see but in the real time they've been pointing it out for years and years it's not that easy yeah and another theme of the conversation that we keep having investors rush into u.s equities this is from the ft 140 billion monthly net inflows after the election you know this is like uh remember that commercial back in the day, how many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop?

28:48I don't know why I thought about that, but like I guess the bad analogy that I'm trying to use is like where's this money coming from? That's the worst analogy I've ever used. But how, I guess. I can't believe how bad it dwarfs 2021. I would have assumed 2021 would be like the height of speculative mania. And everyone's just got more money now. I don't know. We still haven't got a good answer on this. I would love for someone to provide a good answer on this. Where is the money coming from? Yeah, I don't know. Somebody tell me, damn it. So, I mean, here's the simple explanation is, let's see, inflation is up 25 % since 2020.

29:24Wages are also up 25%. So people have more money to invest, but that doesn't account for why it's so much bigger now, though. That's not like a 20 % increase. It's like a two-fold increase. Yeah.

29:42So Robin is looking to get into sports betting. shocker. Who could believe that? Why wouldn't they? Yeah, I guess that makes sense. Are they too late or is it still not too late for that sort of stuff? No, but they've got the users. I think people would like to consolidate. I'll just do all my degenerate stuff on one app. I don't need all these different apps. I asked earlier the time lapse of single stock leverage long ETFs. How much of that do you think is in Robinhood? I'm guessing that they're definitely punching above their weight class in terms of total AUM on the platform versus total AUM and levered stuff.

30:14Yeah, that makes sense. Okay, new Mobus in Peace from Morgan Stanley. I did not read this yet. I planned to. Totally obvious, but he had some great charts in here. This one stuck out to me more than I don't. People talk about the concentration of indexing and how much money is in the top 10 holdings. And actually since 2010, it's gone up, but not much, from 25 to 30%, but he shows the average. Oh, sorry, this is top 10 holdings. But for active managers have actually got more concentrated. So active managers went from 30 % concentration in the top 10 to 40, whereas indexing went from 25 % to 30%.

30:47So it's kind of funny to think that people are so worried about concentration in indexing when it's even worse in active management, which makes sense. I mean, this is the thing that we keep talking about. It's like, they're the ones setting the prices. Of course it's higher in active. Yes, and they have to be. They have no choice. Oh, here's another one. Back to our where's the money coming from. This is from Ed Yardeni. The three-month moving average of foreign private purchases of U.S. stocks hit an all-time high in September. historically foreigners have been poor timers of u.s stock market tended to chase rallies and blow off tops but look at this number it's another one that's just off the charts compared to history in terms of money the last three months this is another another answer that we've gotten from listeners is uh overseas investors and listen certainly part of it certainly part of the story um all right financial optimism improved in november what are we looking at here this is a percentage of households seeing better financial situation in one year This is from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey of Consumer Expectations.

31:42And you might— It was up like 30 % in one month. You might laugh and say, how is it—it's so crazy that we live in a country where people's moods are determined by who's in the White House, whether it's people that you want in the White House or people you don't want in the White House. But that's the way it is. So right now, people are really excited about who's in the White House. and does it matter? I think it does. I think the way that people feel about who's in the White House and how it's going to impact the economy, whether they turn out to be right or wrong, I think it matters and can be self-fulfilling because if they're feeling better and they're more likely to spend and they're more likely to invest and take on new projects, I think that in and of itself can move the needle.

32:27Speaking of my ticket broker, who again was introduced to me, I did not find my ticket broker, so thank you, listener. My ticket broker said, hey, he's like, hey, this is not a political comment, so I'm just letting you know, I've been slammed since the election. People are spending a lot more, way more money on tickets. How about this for an explanation? No, but you laugh, but that's actually happening. Yeah. He wasn't trying to be funny. How about this for an explanation here? There's just lots of rich people in the world. This is from UBS. They do this global wealth report every year, and they say, let's see, the percent of adults in the lowest wealth band, they will get below 10 ,000 USD, this is globally, and 10 to 100, and then above a million.

33:18They show the percentage in that lower 10 ,000 band has basically been cut in half from 75 % in 2000 to 39.5 % now. There's more millionaires. 1.5 % of the adult population is millionaires around the world. 22 million of them are in the US. So 38 % of all millionaires in the globe reside in the United States. China is second with 6 million, and that's double the number of the UK, which is in the third. So 22 million millionaires out of 260 million adults in the US. That's 8 % of all adults in the US are millionaires. Say that one more time. 8 % of all adults in the US are millionaires now. Nearly one in 10.

33:58So it's one in 12, I guess. Higher or lower than you would have assumed. And we're by far the most out of any country. And how, I'm sorry, how is millionaire defined? Oh, I don't know if it includes home equity or not. That's a good question. I didn't really look. But globally, 1.5 % of the population is worth a million or more. 16 % is... If you include primary residency, I would guess it's a lot higher than 8%. Yeah, true. because isn't, yeah, isn't like 5 % of all houses are worth a million? But you take the equity into account. But the crazy thing here is that it's something like 75 % of people are worth$100 ,000 or less globally.

34:3975 %? Yes, 75 % of the global population is worth$100 ,000 or less. 40 % is worth$10 ,000 or less. You could hear that and get upset about the inequality and stuff. I see that as an opportunity. Like what happens, not if, but hopefully when these people are lifted up. And these numbers are showing that it's already improving. The last 20 years, we've seen a big improvement. Well, the amount of people living in absolute global poverty is collapsing, right? Right, yeah. So I listened to a bunch of the - Yeah, so to your point, the trend here matters more than the absolute numbers. Yeah, anyway, getting back to the percentage of millionaires in the United States, that's interesting.

35:20I would, of investable assets, yeah, maybe 10 % sounds about right. I don't know. But I was listening to Bezos and Sam Altman and Alex Cooper and Ken Griffin. And there's so much f***ing negativity out there for reasons, you know, or obviously we need to get into that now. But I was really, I found it really encouraging and inspiring to listen to some of these like business people about some of the projects that they're working on and ways in which they're inspired to create value. And, you know, people are, for people who rail against billionaires, Jeff Bezos was like, yeah, I, uh, I have$200 billion worth of Amazon stock.

36:04Guess how much Amazon's worth? $2 trillion. which means that I've created$1.8 trillion in wealth for other people. I don't think people realize how cool it's going to be when we have a bunch of self-driving cars and AI acting like your personal assistant. I don't think people have prepared themselves for that reality yet. Yeah, so I found myself feeling pretty inspired by what the future is going to look like. ChartKid just sent me this over. I asked him to update this when the data came out. So we've got the Small Business Optimism Index and the small business uncertainty index. And the small business uncertainty index was spiking into the election.

36:45And it's a little bit hard to see, but it's pulled back pretty dramatically since. But you've got the small business optimism just roaring. And again, like this matters. The way that people feel, you don't think the way people feel now, you don't think so? Did it matter to the economy the last two or three years though, when people thought the economy was dreadful and the spending was off the charts and the economy was growing? No, but I don't think the two things could be – I don't think opposites need to be equal if that makes – or I don't know if I'm explaining it right. But I don't think what you just said disproves what I'm saying.

37:17Just because people had been spending doesn't mean that now they're going to not spend even more. I think they are going to spend even more. And I know that my take it broker thing is very anecdotal, but I do think that it matters. I think sentiment matters for how people feel and how people spend. I definitely do. I don't think people have another level to go to unless we – everyone just – Oh, yeah? Maybe this is – Oh, yeah? Well, okay. Maybe this is the point where people just tap into debt, but people have been spending so much already that I don't know where does the rest of the money come from?

37:47The raises aren't going up. The people aren't going to be able to change jobs anymore and get these massive raises. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. So, okay. I put a new segment in here, Ben. Okay. It's called The Wayback Machine. Click on this link. Okay. Somebody made this for us. and it's charts from animal spirits over the years. You click on it, it says get a random chart. Holy cow. And you hit it again, you get another random chart. And it shows what episode it was on? Yeah. So, Ben, I saw one and I clicked on the link. Who made this for us? I did not see this. This is amazing. Thank you, Dylan.

38:32Shout out to Dylan. So I grabbed a chart, and maybe we'll make this a segment. Maybe we won't. I don't know. But like charts from 2018 that seem either quaint or funny or outdated or earlier. Oh my God. Carnival and Royal Caribbean when they went to like two times price to earnings in 2021. Can you imagine if we would have bought them back then? Okay, so anyhow. So I grabbed a chart. This looks like it's from Ned Davis, doesn't it? Yeah, it is Ned Davis. It's the weights of the top five and bottom half of stocks of the S &P 500. So by the way, actually, Hey, wait a minute. This is my chart. This is my f***ing pie chart.

39:09That's your pie chart. That's true. I just thought about it. This is my pie chart. Because remember when you're like, holy shit. The top five stocks are equal to the bottom 50 % of stocks in the market. Wait, but this was in 2018? Exactly, bro. How quaint. What do you think this chart looks like today? the top five stocks are probably equal to the bottom 65 % of stocks. Yeah, it just kept going. There were so many people. Guys, not all of you were investing in 2018. A lot of you were. I can't tell you how many people, probably ourselves included, if we're being honest, who in 2018 thought this was unsustainable.

39:55Right, this can't go on anymore. And that's, it's legitimately seven years ago. So maybe we'll make this a recurring segment. Maybe we won't. But either way, I just thought this was interesting. We got an email from a listener. I would love to hear you guys discuss how what can cause prices to stop going up. And if we are lucky, maybe even to go down one day. Thanks. Signed, another average American getting a standard 3 % annual raise and crushed by inflation. All right, here's how I'll answer this. I'm not going to talk about prices going down because prices in certain areas will go down. Prices in most areas will not, unless the economy is really crappy.

40:34But look at the last 18 months of inflation here. The standard deviation of this is nil, right? My son is watching some soccer show on YouTube lately, so he uses the word nil all the time. Anytime we go to watch a game, he'll say nil. Like, he picked it up. So, anyway, we've been under, I don't know, 3.5 % for the last well over a year. And look at how this is the good news, is that the volatility of inflation has been taken out. That's what you want to see because that makes it easier for businesses to plan. It makes it easier for consumers to plan. It makes it easier for investors to plan. This is what you want to see.

41:09You don't want to see the huge spikes we had and then come back in and then go up. You want to see more stability in prices. This is what the volatility of inflation, obviously the higher prices hurt people, but it was the volatility that really scared people too in seeing the massive spikes. We've taken that out, which I think is a good sign. How's that? That's what you want to see. All right. But how do prices, what can cause prices to stop going up? All right, so here's the answer. Nothing. The economy is selling. People losing their jobs. Yeah. I thought about writing a post about this months ago.

41:43I just never got around to it, and I don't know if I ever will. Why inflation exists and why it will never go away. We all run businesses, right? And we all want to make more money. and one, there's a few levers, a few areas you can make money, right? Like, add more services, add different services, but the easiest and the least offensive way is to just raise prices a little bit every year. Right? You just raise prices a little bit every year. The person that does your sprinkler service, they charge you$90 to turn off your sprinklers to drain your pipes, whatever they need to do. And if they charge you$95 next year, what are you going to do?

42:24Do you pay for that in New York? Pay for one in New York. To get your sprinklers turned off like that. You pay 90 bucks? Well, whatever the number is. Okay, probably 50 here. That's a New York premium there. Whatever it is. My point is, the people that you do business with on a daily basis, the companies that you work with on a daily basis, they raise their prices every year. Why? Because that's how they make more money. They can. As long as the pie keeps growing, the prices will get higher. I've always said inflation is the lesser of two evils. Deflation sounds great until you realize it would mean fewer jobs and your wages would go down.

42:57No, no, no, no, no. It's horrendous. People delay consumption because why would you buy something today if you know it's to be cheaper tomorrow? And that's called the deflation spiral. And that's what nukes an economy. Okay? So you never want that. Yeah. So that's an oversimplified version of why inflation exists, why it always exists, and why it will never not exist. And the best way to protect yourself from inflation is to own assets, right? I think that that's been the lesson or one of the key lessons. So, but no, prices will not go down. Ben's three best hedges against inflation are a good job, right?

43:30Because your wages can rise over time. A 30-year fixed rate mortgage in a house because a home is a great hedge against inflation and stocks for the long run. Those are the three best hedges against inflation. What about pizza? Pizza's pretty good too. Little Caesars is still$5.55 for a hot and ready. I can't wait till Little Caesars jams it up your ass. it's my kids my kids favorite pizza is little caesars we want to try to get them like the good vitalis italian place in town here and all they want is little caesars all right we talked a couple weeks ago about how the bitcoiners had won i think it's worth talking about the 100 000 mark it's a it's a number whatever some people don't care about big round numbers i do this was it was 15 000 ish in november 2022 and now it's 100 000 and that was a severe crypto winter that we went through.

44:16And the fact that it's back here is just, I think it's just take a step back and say how amazing it is that this, it just keeps coming back. Dude, I said this a couple of weeks ago. I can't, I can't believe these guys did it. Like I can't believe they actually, they want, they, they, they willed it into existence. It seems so unlikely. We were laughing. Eric Balchunas tweeted, King of the hill, the U S spot ETFs have just passed Satoshi and the total Bitcoin held now hold more than 1.1 million more than anyone in the world. And they're not even a year old, literally baby still, mind-blowing. So US ETFs own more Bitcoin than anybody.

44:52Ben, what is this chart, Michael's favorite Bitcoin story? Okay. So your favorite Bitcoin story is just that the supply and demand. You've said that a million times. And it says, behind Bitcoin's rally is a simple fact, supplies are limited. So they show how the Bitcoin supply will change over the time. And it's already been like 19 million out of the 21 million have been mined or whatever, created, whatever you call it. And so their whole point is like the supply and demand, as you always talk about. And they show the estimated distribution of supply. And 70 % of individuals own Bitcoin. Satoshi owns 4.6%.

45:23ETFs own 5.9%. 7.5 % has been lost. So that's, what, 150 billion has been lost or something? I've got a question for you. So Satoshi, whoever they are, and I can't believe it has never come out yet. I know HBO tried to do a doc on it or someone tried to do a doc and it sounded like it It wasn't really that great. The funny thing is, is that the answer would probably not be, would be pretty underwhelming. It would probably be just some nerd that no one's ever heard of. Be very underwhelming. So here's my question. Satoshi has never, as far as I'm concerned, never moved Bitcoin anywhere, never sold any, right?

45:53They've never done anything with it. And I don't know if they're an altruistic person, and maybe they just own a bunch of other Bitcoin, and they've got so rich it didn't matter. Like they just mined some, or they have some, and it doesn't matter. What should Satoshi do with their Bitcoin? If they're altruistic, and they're going to never do anything with it, Should they destroy it? So it's worth 95. Let's say they're not going to do anything with it ever, whoever he or she is. Should they or whoever they are? So it's worth 95 billion. They have 1.1 million Bitcoins. What if they held a lotto and said, anyone who has an income$50 ,000 or less, put your name in the lottery.

46:25We're going to give you one Bitcoin from Satoshi. How much goodwill would that engender to the rest of the world as far as crypto goes? Is that a good plan or what? Should I be on the PR team for Satoshi? You get one Bitcoin.

46:41Come on. That's pretty good. There was a crash. Give me a call on encrypted lines, Satoshi. There was a crash at 100 ,000. A crash. There was a gigantic liquidation. Largest amount of liquidation. So Crypto McKenna tweeted, largest amount of liquidation since FTX insolvency on BTC now. Spot buyers stepping in, hoovering up the liquidation cascade. Thanks for playing. That's because everyone was following me out of the trade. Yeah, exactly. But here's the last thing that I want to say about Bitcoin. You're right. I do feel a bit of vindication here too. I was never, I'm not a Bitcoin guy in terms of the story, the maxi, the, this, the, that, the fixing poverty.

47:17I never believed any of that bullshit. Um, but I did believe that they believed and I did believe that the story would resonate. And I did believe that demand would outstrip supply. And therefore I bought it because I thought it would go up. Like I, so I feel, I feel pretty, pretty good about that. This is a, this is a very much a Michael victory lap podcast. Things are, you know, I'm due for a kick in the ass. Although maybe it's just balancing out the Audi and my missing my flight. So maybe I'm even. But I do want to say this. Short of the supply and demand thing is if you find a financial asset with a religious fervor behind it, buy it.

47:52Don't ask questions. I do want to say this. The point that Eric made about BlackRock or about spot ETFs being the biggest holder of Bitcoin. Our friend Tyrone retweeted the top 10 Bitcoin holders. And he said, BlackRock, Fidelity, MicroStrategy, and the US government among the top 10, just as Satoshi intended. So Ben, you skeeted. Bitcoin really is proof that you don't have to be right to make money. Everything Bitcoin people have ever predicted has been wrong, except the price going up. It's actually kind of amazing. I say this with no shade either. It's impressive. I don't know if everything they predicted is wrong, but point taken for the most part.

48:26But here's, I think Jack said it, no offense, a little bit better than you did. Jack said, a thing about Bitcoin, Jack Raines over at Blue Sky, a thing about Bitcoin that I found annoying is that the original argument for it, a decentralized currency that can't be manipulated is effectively dead. The price went up because one, it's broadly accessible on exchanges and two, people just bought it. It's categorically useless as a currency and it's entirely centralized at this point. You buy it on Coinbase or Robinhood, BlackRock has an ETF, et cetera. Its accessibility was great for the price. And I think digital gold is the best description at this point.

48:59I realize it's in vogue to parade around when your asset goes up. Just annoying seeing the I told you back in 2014 posts when the stuff people said in 2014 was totally off base. You can get rich being right for the wrong reasons, but don't act like a psychic. And Jack's totally right. They were right. Credit to them. But truly, let's not forget that all of this self-sovereign custody, it's outside the system and this and that. Who gives a shit? It was a good story. Eventually the story won, but the story that they told is not the story that effectively - Yeah, and people realize that Like if we want this to get big, as big as we want it, the mainstream has to be part of it.

49:36And maybe the government does or whoever. Someone asked us a question about the regulatory environment with Bitcoin or crypto and what it actually means to be deregulated. I don't think we have to get into all that. But my hope here is that there's always a pendulum of like the regulatory framework. And so leading up to the great financial crisis, there was this period of massive deregulation. And then the crisis hit and people said, oh, my gosh, that was so stupid. There was no rules in place. Now we got to add way more rules. And obviously the pendulum swung way too far back in that direction.

50:07And now people say, like, why are there so many rules against everything? I just hope if we are entering the other way of the pendulum swinging, that it's not just crypto because I don't know what crypto deregulation would really do besides make a bunch of crypto people even richer. I hope if we do get a deregulation environment that most of it is in the real estate segment. Like that's the place that can actually do some good, where we need to have the most deregulation is building more apartments and houses. Can we agree on that? Amen, brother. Because look at this from the Washington Post. In 1972, when the U.S.

50:41population was just over 200 million, near 2.4 million new homes were built. Last year, only 1.4 million homes were added for a population of 335 million. Realistically, we need at least 2 million new homes to be built each year. We're not even close to that. And you can see, it's crazy that the bubble in the 2000, and like we were building a ton of homes. And then the crash hit and the amount of homes we built went nowhere. And so it is one of these things where people want to blame the Fed for lowering rates and all this stuff for what happened and the baby boomers for buying cheap homes in the 80s or whatever it is.

51:12But part of the reason that housing prices are so high right now is just because we didn't build enough homes. And part of that reason is because we built too many in the early 2000s. And it's just like the law of unintended consequences. Like you can't, sometimes there's no one to blame but just the environment. and it was lucky, unlucky. Yeah. All right, I've got a real estate thing. My kids like to drive around every year and look at the Christmas lights. There's one house, there's this older gentleman who's a widower and his kids go crazy and put, like it's like bigger than Clark Griswold's house in Christmas vacation almost.

51:45They do so many lights. So we like to drive around through this house, look at it and then drive to these other houses. And we noticed a shocking lack of Christmas lights this year in most of the neighborhoods we drive through. And I also noticed this in Halloween that we went to this neighborhood across the street from us that's kind of kiddy-cornered our neighborhood that has a lot of houses close together. So my kids were thinking in their head, oh, at Halloween, we can hit all these houses up and score because some of their friends live there. But there was a shockingly few number of families living in this neighborhood.

52:11It was like an older neighborhood. And the funny thing is, is most of the houses, the lights were off and it was older baby boomers with no kids that lived in these homes. And I was kind of surprised. It was like, I don't know, 70 % of the households who were giving out candy were baby boomers and no kids in their house. and my thought was, oh, this is a neighborhood that young families should be living in. It seems like a neighborhood where families should be living in, but it's, I don't know, it's baby boomers who have been in these houses for 30 years or whatever, and I guess it shouldn't be surprising since they own so many houses, but that also kind of explains the whole situation of the housing market, that these people who have been in these houses forever have just stayed in them, and it hasn't allowed younger people to move into them, because there are no houses, no new houses to move into.

52:51Anyway, I know this is glaringly obvious, but, and I'm not trying to blame baby boomers, but I think the lack of Christmas lights is older people going, do we need to do that anymore? Right? So I have another Christmas light thing. I have a question for you. Now, I've been called a hater on this podcast before. This is not hating, but this is just a little shade. What do you feel about people who pay to have their Christmas lights hung for them? You hate Thanksgiving. No, no, no, no, no. I don't hate Thanksgiving. I enjoy the family. I just don't like Thanksgiving dinner. Okay. I think, especially for the family.

53:25I'll tell you my answer. I'll tell you my answer. As somebody who has never hung a Christmas light, I have never thought about people that pay to hang their Christmas lights. So I'll give the mic back to you. Okay. So I think if you have a family, you have to hang them yourself. Because I had my first ever Clark and Rusty Griswold moment with my son. But you've still never seen Christmas Vacation? No, I have. I have. Is that the original? Yeah, right? No, Christmas Vacation is the – that's the second or third one. It goes vacation, European vacation, Christmas vacation. So I had the whole deal with my son.

53:58I will say Christmas. It was 20 degrees and my son and I are out and I'm doing the thing around the tree where you have to do the lights really close together around the tree, you know, wrap all the way around. It takes forever. And my son is helping me and there was a huge knot in the lights. And honestly, it was a great Clark and Rusty moment for me that I really enjoyed. And I thought, I'm elfing my neighbors who are having someone hang the lights for them by having this moment, right? Now, will I eventually someday pay for someone to do it? Probably when the kids are out of the house or something.

54:27But I'm anti having someone else hang your lights for you if you have the ability. How's that? And I'm a big fan of outsourcing. But I think that's a moment you have to do. You know, I don't think you have to have that stand. You don't need to have that stand. If somebody wants to pay to have your Christmas lights, you don't have to be anti that. Am I being judgy? Yes.

54:50Okay, Ben. And so last week, we spoke about missing an airplane. And you said it's exhilarating running through the airport. What the f*** is wrong with you? It's not exhilarating. Yeah, running through a flight and we barely made it. Okay, what happened with you? Let me tell the full story. And this might be TMI, but you know what? I'm a TMI guy, okay? So I'm a creature of habit when it comes to my morning routine. Let me just say, I go to the bathroom early in the morning, okay? So the last time I took a car to JFK Airport, I see the Uber, and it says an hour, 10 minutes. I'm like, what the f***?

55:32I live 25 minutes from JFK. It should not take an hour, 10 minutes. It did take an hour, 10 minutes because there was massive construction. And by minute 45, I felt the grind gears on my stomach. And I'm like, oh. Okay, what time did you leave? what time is the flight? I need to know this information. I'm setting the stage. Okay. And I had one of those horrendous experiences where you need a bathroom that's not a bathroom if you get my drift. So, last night, I took an Imodium before I went to sleep to avoid the same thing potentially happening. What an old man move. You asked me what time I left, what time my flight was.

56:18My flight was at 7.30. So I left my house at 5.45, which should put me there at, say, because I checked the traffic, put me there at about 6.30, 6.35. Okay. My stomach is nice and settled. No big deal. I'm feeling pretty good about the situation. I'm calm, cool, and collected. One other piece of information that's important for the purposes of this story. Normally, I pack in a normal-sized carry-on, right? It can go either way. You could probably check, but you could either put it in the upper case or you can, at the very worst, you could check it at the gate, okay? For whatever reason, Ben, I don't know.

57:00I decided, you know what? Let me give myself multiple clothing options. Let me pack large. So I packed a large suitcase. I never pack a large suitcase. I'm here for two nights. I packed a large suitcase, not thinking anything of it. So JFK, the traffic is horrendous because they're redoing the airport. So avoid JFK like the plague if you can. So I'm getting to the exit. I'm getting to the Delta Terminal in a pretty good time. And as we're about to pull off, there's a police car blocking departing flights. Wow, this is annoying. But I'm like, I'm still good. It's 635. So I have to turn around, go the other way.

57:41I get to the airport. I go to the bathroom. I go to the line. They're like, sir, you have to check your luggage. And I go to the desk. You got Greg Flockard at the. I go to the desk and she says, there's a 45 minute cutoff. What time's your flight? I look, I'm saying my flight's at 730. Great, it's 645. She goes, yes, no, sir, it's 645. There's a 45 minute cutoff. You can't, you have to be here at 644. So I said, but it was 644. Are you kidding me? she said it's six no it's 6 45 that 6 45 is a cloud of i'm like i'm like please i it's it's 6 45 like i i was here at 6 44 she goes sir it's in the system there's nothing i can do go downstairs and get a later flight and i'm like i'm doing one of these you gotta be kidding me what so had i uh had i just gone straight to the desk instead of stopping to use the bathroom had I just packed a normal suitcase instead of a large one.

58:45You know, it's really frustrating. I'm steaming mad. I'm kicking the floor. I'm not making a scene because I'm not a scene maker, but I'm just so upset and annoyed. I like to get out early and spend the day where I'm going. So listen, it's not the end of the world. It's one of those things where in the moment, you're really frustrated. I can't believe she didn't look the other way. I had a ton of work to do in the airport. So, but here's the kicker. So I was in comfort plus I get to the, so he's like, I'm sorry, man. I know, I know you're frustrated, uh, but I don't want, I was able to get you another comfort plus seat, uh, for the next flight.

59:24It says seat assigned that gate. I get to the gate. Sure enough, I'm in E29, which is a middle row. So I said to the lady behind the counter, I'm like, listen, I had a really rough morning. I've been here for five hours. Do you mind if I just board with someone for, I might as well go to for us could just get his board with zone four just so i could get settled she said sir go to the back of the line and so i called i called delta this morning to explain the situation and i am not i'm really not the type of person i don't yell at customer service people if my room isn't ready at the hotel check-in like i don't berate these people and i didn't berate this person on delta but i was just like i'm like listen you're in the customer service business i'm in the i'm in the customer service business.

1:00:05I'm not asking for a lot. Can you just refund me the difference? That's your go-to move. That's the second time you've used it. I am. I am. I'm like, can you just give me the difference? I first asked for a full refund. She's like, did you make your flight? I'm like, yeah, I made my flight. She's like, sir, just give me an e-credit of the difference between what I paid for the Comfort Plus and what the seat would have cost to be in the back and the middle. and she said, sir, I'm sorry, I can't help you. If you'd like to write a formal request, I'm like, you really can't help me. I'm like, we spend a lot of money on Delta between my family and my business.

1:00:46I'm not being unreasonable. Can you just say, and I'm like, can you just say, hey, I'm sorry you had a lousy experience. There's no empathy. I'm like, I'm not looking for a lot. Just, hey, that really sucks. I'm sorry, I understand you're frustrated. Here's what you have to do, we'll take care. All I want is like a$200 credit. I'm not being a crazy person. It's just, it's so frustrating when you feel like, you know, you did nothing wrong. And I understand that was late, but come on. So. I can't, yeah, that's frustrating. I did the thing where I ran up to the gate in Newark once and the gate was literally closing.

1:01:20And I said, that's me. And they said, nope, nothing we can do. Once the door's closed, nothing. And so I've been in that situation too. I want to just be human and go, eh, I'm going to look the other way. Once the door is closed, the door is closed. But if experiences like that where you feel like not only did you get shit luck, but like people are just like not even empathetic or just like not nice to try and do anything to remedy the situation. And all I want to do is say – In their defense, they're dealing with jerks all day, I'm sure. I'm sure they're dealing with jerks all day. I'm sure they are.

1:01:50I'm sure they are. I'm sure they are. And in my defense, I was not a jerk, so. Okay. All right. Let's do some recommendations. Any good airplane movies? to calm you down. So let me first say this. TVs are back for me. I'm enjoying several episodes or several shows. So I was sick all weekend. Robin was thrilled with that, that I was not able to fulfill my fatherly duties. So what did I do? I watched a lot of television. I binge watched a show, start to finish. Haven't done that in since before we had kids. A show called Black Doves. It is a spy show, on Netflix and it is a British spy show and it's only six episodes long and there was a good payoff.

1:02:39The first episode was like, eh, this could be a little bit wonky. No. Oh, Keira Knightley, huh? Keira Knightley, high quality. They landed the plane. There will probably be a season two. Don't care if there is or there isn't. It was good. It was, again, six episodes. I'm in, worth watching. Now, that's a wreck. here's a pound the table wreck of a similar thing. I'm a little hurt that you did Black Doves before you did Slow Horses, but keep going. Well, but here's the thing. Slow Horses is four seasons. True. So that's a commitment. I will do Slow Horses. That was a good one. This is a pound the table one.

1:03:16And the show is called The Agency. And I'm watching it on Paramount Plus through Showtime. Now, Ben, my wife is, is she likes the type of shows like Law & Order where when you close your eyes and you just listen, it literally sounds like the person is reading the script. Because let's be honest, these type of shows like Law & Order and a lot of the shows on Netflix are for mass consumption. And so they have to explain to you every single detail. They have to hold the audience's hand. I know that you're watching The Agency too. It's with Jeffrey Wright, Richard Gere, Michael Fassbender. They don't tell you shit.

1:03:50like this is a sophisticated show. It is movie quality. Put your phone down while you're watching it show. Yes. And I can't tell you. Well, I probably could tell you. Maybe Succession for me. Maybe Homeland before that. A put your phone down type of show. I would say it's that good. Would you agree? Yes. This reminds me a little of Homeland. I pound the table on this too. I think the second episode and especially the last like 20 minutes were just on a heater and it might be one of the best episodes of television this year. The second episode was amazing. Like the first one definitely drew me in.

1:04:23The second episode, I was like, okay, this show is amazing. It's really good. And the third one was great too. So that is a Michael and Ben pound the table. I've got two more. I think we spoke about this semi-recently. And I don't say this just as an IMAX shareholder, but Interstellar got re-released into IMAX. Now, I haven't seen the numbers. I don't know what sort of business it did, but more of this, please, right? Like I would love to see some of these phenomenal movies back in the theater. Why aren't they doing that? It seems like such low-hanging fruit. I agree. Although I'd say Interstellar didn't get a lot of accolades when it came out, I feel like.

1:04:58I feel like it's one of those slow-burn movies that... People did not love it when it came out. People didn't like it so much. I saw it on an airplane and I cried. I watched it on an airplane because that's how little fanfare got. It's a good movie, but people have to pump the brakes saying it's Nolan's best movie, though. I don't think they do. I don't think they do with the pump the brakes. Take it up with Ramp. Ramp if you're listening. Slide into our DMs. I really like Interstellar. There's no way it's in Nolan's best movie, even in the conversation for me. Sorry. Oh, it's in the conversation.

1:05:30I'm sorry. Okay. So The Ringer did a top 50 movie airplane list. And Ben - Oh, yeah, we got a lot of hits on this. Ben, am I annoyed that they stole our material? Hardly. I am absolutely flattered. Very well done. Is there a chance that people at The Ringer have never heard us discuss our airplane movies? Yeah, there's a chance. Do I think there's a stronger than 50-50 chance that they heard us and we inspired them? I'll pat myself on the back and you that yes. Because we have been speaking about airplane movies forever and we, in fact, did a list at Future Proof. So their list was good. There were some curious choices, but they had the number one right choice, which all credit to Michael Antonelli, it's Ocean's Eleven.

1:06:20So they're right. He's right. Credit to us. Credit to them. That was a good list. All right. So I did watch. I did watch because I was able to do five hours of work at the airport. I knocked out a lot of stuff I had to do. So I actually did watch the movies on the airplane. I watched three. Two are worth recommending. One was Blink Twice, which boy, if that's not an airplane movie, I don't know what is. Have you seen it? Never heard of it. Blink Twice is with Channing Tatum. Okay. I've never heard of this movie. It's in the same ilk of Eat the Rich, of the rich people are abusing their power. Ah, okay.

1:06:54Watch it. It's good. The other one was a stalker thriller, which is my type of genre. What's that Jake Gyllenhaal movie? Nightcrawler? God, I love that movie. Good one. So this one is called Skincare with, is it Elizabeth Banks? I think it's Elizabeth Banks. Also, so Blink Twice and Skincare, both a buck 40. So skincare was a very good airplane movie, probably not a couch movie, but it's an airplane movie. Uh, as we're landing, Ben, as we're getting ready to, to land, I turned on, um, Deadpool versus Wolverine. I hate those movies. Even, even the first six minutes, just the whole blinking into the camera, wink, wink.

1:07:39It's so cheesy. It's the worst of Ryan Reynolds. and I know you're a Ryan Reynolds stan and I like Ryan Reynolds. I had Ryan Reynolds stock way back in the day from Van Wilden. See, I think it's the best of Ryan Reynolds. This is where we differ. I think it's the best of him. I hate it. I think it's like the most unfunny. I can't, it just, it gives me douche chills. I hate it. My thought process though, watching this is Ryan Reynolds could write a sitcom if he wanted to. He could write like a show like The Office and it would be so funny and witty. He's probably, I think he should move to TV instead of movies from now on.

1:08:10That's my, that's my take. Like, my other TV show that I'm watching besides the agency, I sometimes like to do two shows at once, like a book, if I'm in between shows or books. So I started the agency. I also started Say Nothing on Hulu, which is a story about, like, the IRA, Irish Public Army, back in the day. And it's really, really good so far. Two episodes in, I'm into it. Beetlejuice I watched on HBO. I, for some reason, really liked the original. No, the original was great. The sequel was just, ugh. I love the original. The sequel was unnecessary. I love Michael Keaton. But here's the thing.

1:08:44So we had this string of weird movies in the 90s. My son and I started watching Edward Scissorhands the other day. And then there's like Joe vs. Volcano. There's Beetlejuice. Here's the thing. In the 90s, you could get away with not being self-aware and just making a weird, non-self-aware movie. But now, one of the reasons the original Beetlejuice is so good is because it's so charmingly has a lack of self-awareness and it's just charmingly weird. And the new one is all self-aware. Like, it's aware that it's weird. Stop winking at the camera. let me just say try Landman there's a little bit of substance there alright I think I'm done with Taylor Sheridan shows I tried we're still watching Yellowstone finally, I got a take here Home Alone is the greatest family movie of all time I tried to come up with a list there's Wizard of Oz, there's Willy Wonka there's E.T.

1:09:36some people put Elf on the list, Princess Bride Sandlot My kids watch Home Alone every year. My oldest daughter, who's 10, she's already watched Home Alone three times this year. My kids love it. I still find enjoyment out of it. It's the greatest family movie of all time, hands down. I think that's the right take. I'm with you there. I think I spoke about this on the pod, but I showed my boys E.T. for the first time, and the nostalgia completely broke me, and I was, I'm about to cry thinking about it. I was hysterically crying. Like, showing that to my kids, it just— You're a big sap man. E.T.?

1:10:14Well, I have a complicated relationship with my childhood. My mom's dead. My parents got divorced when I was young. It's a whole thing. Okay. But I— Holy, holy shit. That, like, brought me back to when I was there. Watching them watch that movie, like, was a pinnacle for me. Yes. Going back to the 80s is an interesting time. I agree. We enjoyed E.T. too. But Home Alone, we watch it every year now. Home Alone's the goat. Yep, that's all I got. Sorry for all the complaining and all the back padding for this episode, but I had fun doing it. So I hope you had fun listening. Hey, I'm in customer service.

1:10:48You're in customer service.

1:10:52Listen, I was a busboy. I know exactly what it's like. Animal Spirits at the compoundnews.com. We always appreciate your emails. Thanks to Duncan and everyone on the production team because we went very long today, but Michael had a lot of stories to tell, So it had to be done. See you next time.