In short
Animal Spirits Podcast - Episode 386 Summary: The Bitcoiners Won
Podcast Title: Animal Spirits Podcast Episode Title: The Bitcoiners Won (EP.386) Hosts: Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson Release Date: [Date not provided in transcript] Sponsors: Roundhill Investments and Fabric by Gerber Life
---
Episode Overview In this episode, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss several topics including the recent election outcome, economic messaging from Democrats, market performance, credit spreads, Bitcoin's rise, and various cultural references such as tiny houses and the Mighty Ducks.
---
Key Topics Discussed
- Election Insights
- Trump's Victory: The hosts reflect on why Trump won the recent election and the Democrats' fumbled economic messaging.
- Voter Sentiment:
- A significant number of voters expressed dissatisfaction with the state of the economy despite positive economic indicators.
- Charts are referenced showing that voters' feelings about economic performance were starkly negative, with a high percentage rating the economy poorly.
- Economic Narratives
- Hindsight Bias: The discussion emphasizes how narratives about the election's outcome often arise after the fact, with many failing to predict the results accurately.
- Dissatisfaction with Economic Messaging:
- Economists' narratives about the economy being strong clashed with public sentiment.
- The hosts suggest that the messaging from the Democratic Party did not resonate with voters, leading to the electoral defeat.
- Stock Market Performance
- Market Gains: The S&P 500 has seen significant performance with gains nearing 30%.
- Credit Spreads: Discussion on the tight credit spreads and their implications for risk appetite in the market.
- Bitcoin's Ascendancy
- Bitcoin's Success: The hosts celebrate Bitcoin's rise and its acceptance as a legitimate asset class, marking it as a win for the cryptocurrency community.
- Adoption: They discuss the growing institutional interest in Bitcoin and how it has shifted from a fringe idea to a mainstream financial discussion.
- Cultural References
- Tiny Houses and 90s Nostalgia: The hosts reflect on pop culture, mentioning tiny houses and the Mighty Ducks as part of their lighter commentary.
- Movie Recommendations: They discuss various films including “My Old Ass” and the Mighty Ducks, touching on how themes resonate across generations.
---
Takeaways
- Economic Confidence vs. Perception: There is often a disconnect between how economists view the economy and how the general public perceives their individual economic circumstances.
- Importance of Messaging: Effective communication is crucial for political parties to connect with voters; failure can lead to significant electoral consequences.
- Bitcoin's Narrative: Bitcoin’s growing acceptance signifies a broader shift in financial paradigms, emphasizing that the market recognizes its value.
- Cultural Touchstones: Nostalgia plays a significant role in contemporary discussions, as seen in references to films and trends from the 90s.
---
Conclusion Episode 386 of the Animal Spirits Podcast dives deep into the intersection of economics, politics, and cultural commentary, reflecting on current events with a mix of analytical insights and personal anecdotes. The emphasis on Bitcoin highlights its evolving status, while the discussion about the recent election underscores the importance of effective messaging in political discourse.
For further engagement, listeners are encouraged to subscribe to the Compound newsletter and reach out with feedback or suggestions for future episodes.
---
Links and References
- Investing Disclaimer: [Ritholtz Wealth Management Disclosures](https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/)
- Sponsor Links:
- [Roundhill Investments](https://roundhillinvestments.com/etf/mags)
- [Fabric by Gerber Life](https://meetfabric.com/spirits)
- Newsletters:
- [The Compound Newsletter](https://thecompoundnews.com/subscribe)
- [The Unlock Newsletter](https://www.advisorunlock.com/subscribe)
---
These notes encapsulate the major themes and discussions of the podcast, providing an insightful summary for those interested in the intersections of finance, politics, and culture.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Today's show is brought to you by Roundhill Investments and the Magnificent 7 ETF, ticker symbol MAGS. Mags is the ETF to offer precise equal weight exposure to the Magnificent Seven stocks, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla. These are the leaders at the forefront of innovation, shaping the future of innovation in today's economy. Winner of Best New ETF at the 2024ETF.com Awards, Mags offers a simple and efficient way to invest in the Magnificent Seven in a single ticker. To learn more about Mags, visit roundtillinvestments.com slash ETF slash Mags. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.
0:37Before investing, carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses in the prospectus at roundhillinvestments.com. Read carefully. Distributor, Foresight Fund Services, LLC. Today's Animal Spirits is brought to you by Fabric by Gerber Life. Fabric by Gerber Life is term life insurance you can get done right here, right now. You can be covered right from your couch in under 10 minutes with no health exam required. Michael, on the show today, we're going to talk about Scott Galloway had this chart on the median age of podcast listeners. And I think it was like 35 years old, whereas all the other forms of media are much older than that.
1:08And so if our audience is that median, that's a sweet spot for life insurance, right? We have a lot of people emailing us saying starting a family, moving to a new house, these types of things. Life insurance is an easy way to protect your family, right? Got to do it. Fabric by Gerber Life has it all online. It's on your schedule. Comply pretty easy. 30-day money-back guarantee. You can cancel at any time. and Fabric has more than just life insurance. Free digital wills, investment accounts to open for your kid's future and more. You can manage it all right from your phone on their app. Join the thousands of parents who trust Fabric to help protect their family.
1:41Apply today in just minutes at meetfabric.com slash spirits. That's M-E-E-T, fabric.com slash spirits. Policies issued by Western Southern Life Assurance Company, not available in certain states. Prices subject to underwriting and health questions.
1:59Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing. Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.
2:29Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. You know, I learned about hindsight bias probably from Kahneman at some point. And it's the thing that after an event happened and you know the outcome, everyone looks back and life is easier to figure out in the rearview mirror, right? Hindsight is 20-20. Yes, like betting on the Bears yesterday at home against the Patriots. What was I thinking? Actually, a better example, betting on the Giants. Just the money line. Just the money line. What was I thinking? I feel like one of us on this show told you to not bet Caleb Williams with those yards. And you know, it's going to be proven right.
3:02Nobody needs to hear about my betting at the opening of the show. Back to you then. All right. This is what happened with the election. The election results didn't go the way some people thought it would. It wasn't really as close as people thought it would be, I guess. And then immediately the hindsight bias machine kicks in. And then you look at these stories and you go, oh, yeah. Oh, of course. Oh, but it's just funny because most of the reasons weren't really being given ahead of time. It's always after the fact that the reasons fall into place and you go, oh, of course this is what happened.
3:29Or of course that's what happened. Well, did you not experience hindsight bias yourself? Because I sure did. Oh, of course. Of course. But it's funny how just quickly that, especially with an election, that happens. And it's like, okay, this and this and that. I mean, one of my first thoughts were, dumbass, you dumb motherfucker. We've been spending the last two years talking about how upset people are with the economy. even though I'm using air quotes, things are fine. Like, why didn't we see this coming? Yeah, so John Byrne Murdoch, I thought, had the chart of the week where he's from the Financial Times and he says, he has this chart, this is every governing party facing election in a developed country this year lost voter share for the first time that's ever happened.
4:11So this goes back to World War II. And you can see the line here. Actually, if you look at the red line, the US is actually near the top. So I guess the US lost voter share, the incumbent, but to a lesser degree than other countries. So this is basically saying every leader in power or every party in power lost voter share to the other party or the other leader that was running against them. We're all fed up. So this was inflation was a global phenomenon. This incumbent being the one that gets blamed was a global phenomenon. So that this, to your point, makes sense. And you go, oh, like the wedding singer, that information would have been better if you gave it to me yesterday.
4:48But this is the thing. We had this information yesterday. Yeah, we did. I took a picture of CNN exit polls. They asked voters how you feel about the way things are going in the US. And only 7 % were enthusiastic, 43 % were dissatisfied, and 29 % were angry. And if you asked us before the election to fill this out, like just take a guess, fill this out, we probably would have been relatively close and still were surprised at the outcome of the election. What? Right? Yeah. I would say dissatisfied and angry is probably a little higher than I would have thought just because it still was a, I don't know, 49, 48 election or something.
5:25But yeah, those are very high. Just further evidence of what we're talking about. Jeff Stein tweeted roughly 67 % of voters rated the economy as not so good slash poor. 67%. A shockingly poor number amid a hot labor market, booming stocks, much lower inflation, growing GDP. The widespread voter dissatisfaction with the economy has been clear for a year or so. Ben, you're right. This has been a week of narrative gymnastics and hindsight bias. And an economist tweeted, economists are going to have to reckon with the fact that the public would have preferred a slower economy or slower recovery with much higher unemployment as long as prices have been stable.
6:04And come on, that's obviously not it. And so Colin chimed in. Colin Roche said, people are mad because many economists spent the last few years saying government spending didn't cause inflation. Inflation didn't hurt people. and that it was okay to spend more money on broadly unpopular policies like student debt forgiveness. So Cullen, I think, and then he quote tweeted and said, in my opinion, some economists are reaching the wrong conclusion from the election. And it's important because after our results happen, we're like, all right, what are the takeaways? And if you get it wrong going into it, that's okay, right?
6:36Like nobody sees the future. But then you also get the lessons wrong. Well, that's dangerous because that sets it up for future failure. So Cullen tweeted, in my opinion, some economists are reaching the wrong conclusion from the election. People felt like the economic narrative was disingenuous. They were told inflation was transitory. They were told government spending didn't cause inflation. They were told inflation wasn't harmful because wages went up. They were told it was the best economy ever. They were told we needed student loan forgiveness, wealth taxes, rent control, and other fringe ideas that were broadly unpopular.
7:06People knew these narratives weren't complete at best and wrong at worst, and they voted against more of it. And that's the bottom line. People were just not buying what the Democratic Party was selling. I think the other thing is that you can't expect economists to be the ones that bring this message to the people either. Like, I don't think you can put blame on the economists, or I don't think if it went well, you could give them credit because people aren't going to get their news or their information from the economists. Yeah, blame the people that lost, that were trying to deliver a message that clearly, clearly, clearly didn't resonate at all.
7:37So when I, after this kind of stuff happens, I don't want to hear, when I'm trying to parse through like the reasons and like the figure out the actual lessons, as you said, I don't want to hear from either side that that's partisan because the winning side is going to say, hi, told you so. And then the losing side is going to say, oh my gosh, everything's on fire. We need to burn it down and start over. I prefer to listen to people who aren't partisan or that I, like I would never know your political opinion. So I thought that Michael Semblis at J.P. Morgan, from an economic perspective, had the best take I've read of anyone.
8:05And he, that's the kind of guy where I, he just, he tells it like it is. I wouldn't be able to parse through what he says one way or another. Like this, he's a staunch Republican or he's a hardcore Democrat. Like you wouldn't know because he just looks at the numbers. And that's the way that I like to view the world. I read the same post and I just thought this screams RFK Jr. So here's what he said. And he kind of did the postmortem for the Dems and saying, so he said, let's see, what I find notable as an investments person about the 2024 election outcome is how the Biden and Harris teams were not able to convert the following into more substantial gains at the polls.
8:39He said close to all-time high in labor force participation rate, a proxy for a very strong job market, a surge in reshoring activity of U.S. manufacturing jobs after reshoring progress declined under Trump, an industrial policy that overwhelmingly benefits GOP districts. 75 % of the energy bill spending is going to GOP districts, many of which are located in swing states, the largest surge in manufacturing-related construction spending on record, highest year-to-day equity gains in an election year since 1936, and then the inflation surge was painful, but it subsided and wages are rising faster than rents.
9:07The Fed was able to raise policy to stem inflation without triggering recession for the first time in 60 years. And he was the only one I saw that this was kind of surprising. He threw some shade on Janet Yellen, surprisingly. And I never thought about it. So he was saying, listen, you had all these successes. You never took a victory lap for any of these. And I think people sometimes from a political party want to, like there was no victory lap ever done on COVID. Or inflation. Or inflation. So we should have been taking a huge - We have more work to do on inflation. Because guess what would have been worse than the highest inflation in four decades?
9:37Inflation, then a recession. So the fact that they never took a victory lap on this stuff, and they just wanted people to figure it out themselves, guess what? If Trump had been president during the same economy as Biden, he would have been taking victory laps every single day. And I think that's, that was, it was a messaging problem with the Dems. And guess what? It might not have mattered anyway. But I think his point is that like, you had some of these victories. Why didn't you claim them? You know, it's such a good point. I wonder if Trump had been president for the past four years, and let's just say that it was his first term, would he have been reelected?
10:04I think probably. People hate inflation, obviously. It's hard to say because it wasn't like – globally, it wasn't like a conservative versus liberal thing. It was incumbent versus non-incumbent. But yeah, you're right. The messaging – The messaging and the framing would have been so much different. And we spent, obviously, like I said, the last couple of years trying to shine the light on the fact that the huge gap between how the economy was objectively performing and how people felt it was performing was stark. But like that's not what resonates with people. No. Right? And people are like, stop telling me the economy is okay when my burrito costs$14.
10:38And there was a chart that people were sharing on the internet. It shows them – it's a morning consult index of consumer sentiment. So it's a daily view of how people feel. and then they break it down by political identification of Republicans or Democrats. And immediately after the election, it shot up, right? Democrats' feelings plummeted. Republicans' feelings skyrocketed. And like you take this as something other than what it is. It's feelings. That's it. Feelings rule everything. It determines policy and the mood and everything. And it's not data. It's feelings. Yeah. And so another one that was going around was people who were misinformed about big topics voted heavily more for Trump than for Harris.
11:23And they showed talking about like – Wait, how do they measure misinformed? Because this sounds – this is the type of stuff that like really pisses off people who voted for one party. Well, they looked – so one of the questions was the US stock market is at or near all-time highs. And people said, no, it's not, voted more for Trump. And so the point was like an inflation has declined over the last year and is near historic average. And those people said no. So it could have been people misreading these questions. But it was, but the point, I think the point is that the negative story won out because the positive story wasn't being told and it wasn't being trumpeted.
11:57And again, it probably might, it might not have mattered, but. But it might have because Morgan's, Morgan Housel's big thing is like best story wins. Yes. So yeah, the best story, you're right. So, but Semblis was saying every other successful president in history has had their treasury secretary who's gone out and just done this. Clinton had Bob Rubin. And remember Obama had Timothy Geithner. Remember that name? Geithner. I can never get that one right. Geithner, Geithner. Okay. Trump had Mnuchin. And it was saying, like, so maybe the reason Janet Yellen didn't talk as much is because she was a former Fed chair and didn't want to step on Powell's toes for anything.
12:32But he was saying like that's part of the job usually for the Treasury to like say like, look at all the great stuff we've done. And they didn't do that. So you're right. The best story wins. And obviously the that other story won. So here's here's my I'm looking through this with a financial lens. Since we did think everyone hated inflation so much, does bye bye recessionary spending happen now? Is it is it gone forever or is it during the next downturn? People are going to say, screw you. Give me my twelve hundred dollar check again. I don't know. But I think we speak about like resulting in stories that we tell.
13:05Who's to say that inflation wouldn't have – in fact, let me rephrase that. If we were in a normal recession where the world wasn't shut down and you sent out stimulus checks, what sort of inflationary impact would that have outside of the economy being shut down and the supply-demand shock, right? Because you gave people all this money in the form of demand, but there wasn't any supply to give them the goods that they needed. Right. This was a total one-off. Yeah. So maybe fiscal stimulus during recession is the right call, but we're so afraid of what happened last time. Yeah. Yeah, right. This is a total one-off.
13:45The funny thing is if you look at the path of inflation to how it got to where it is, Trump's COVID spending was literally the first thing that was the kindling. But guess what? It was the right decision at the time. He should have done that spending. but that was the thing that that got so it was Trump's COVID spending then supply chains then the war in Ukraine and then Biden's COVID spending and it's kind of like you know the NFL player who one guy pushes the other guy and the other guy swings at him the guy who swings gets the flag in retaliation uh I just can't believe that no one ever mentioned on the Dem side you know Trump was the one who started the government spending he was the one who and but guess what it was totally necessary and that's what they could have said anyway I also think it's crazy that neither political party took, wanted credit for this whole election, three of our biggest accomplishments as a nation this past, in this decade, Operation Warp Speed, which was like our moon landing for vaccines, energy independence, and then no recession from the inflation war combo.
14:36No one took credit for those in the whole election. And I know why they didn't, I guess. They didn't want to make people mad, but I don't know. I guess this is the way the world works. So what Matthew Ducline said, so a lot of people are saying, well, the Trump policies are going to lead to higher interest rates, right? Because rates are already moving up. He says, would eventually lead to lower long-term rates. And his whole point is that maybe we don't get this kind of spending in the future. And that means that you should have, so bonds will be more of a protection going forward. You don't have to worry about the inflation as much.
15:09Does that mean that lower, that long-term rates should be lower in the long term? I don't know. A good zag, at least. That was my take. So are we done with that, the hindsight stuff? Again, we talk about this stuff on the edges, and it still might not have mattered, even if there had been touchdown celebrations and better messaging. It still might not have mattered because everyone hated the incumbent this year. Yeah. So we have to give Theo his due. I guess this is the Shaq meme. I owe you an apology. I wasn't really familiar with the game. There was more stories on this Theo guy in France who did his own polling.
15:47The polymarket whale. The polymarket whale. I still stick with my idea that if he literally had$30 million in liquid assets and he bet it all on this election, I still think that's a terrible decision from a risk management framework. But it sounds like he was more informed about this election than I thought. And I guess this is another hindsight one where he said he did his own internal polling. And instead of just asking, who are you voting for? He asked his neighbors who they're voting for. Am I naive? Is that – do other pollsters not do that? I don't know. Yeah. Again, all credit to this person.
16:16but if he really is worth$30 million and he put$30 million on one wager, I mean, that's... You can't just look at the outcome and say, great idea, right? I put all my money, my life savings into the lottery tickets and one of them hit, so it's a good idea, but it sounds like his... I would say, like, in his defense, this is not the lottery, right? He thought he had an edge and apparently he did, so credit to him. Yes, but his line of thinking, yeah, it obviously worked. Okay, so through the close on Friday, we're recording this Monday morning, a little earlier than usual, because busy week this week.
16:48We're traveling. We're doing stuff. Michael has games to go to today. My kids didn't get Veterans Day off. What's the deal with that? Your kids did. Mine didn't. I never know how the national school holidays work. It seems like everyone's on a different schedule. It is. Which I think somebody said, we spoke about this last time, it's for like vacation travel purposes that if everybody had the same schedule. Oh, okay. That makes sense. I can see that. We do like a mid-fall break and we already had it. So I think that was kind of our Veterans Day. So through Friday, the S &P 500 is up over 27 % this year.
17:19So we're closing in on 30 % gain. Everybody in the pool, I looked at this. 30 % years. 18 out of the past 96 years for the S &P 500 have finished up 30 % or better. So that's roughly 20 % of the time. From rounding up, there's also been eight times where the S &P has finished the year between 25 % and 30%. So if we did 25 % and up, now we're talking 27 % of the time. it happens a lot more than you would think. Sam Rao tweeted from S &P, 50 all-time highs this year, the seventh most in the calendar year. Wow. I was wondering this. I was going to look this up. It's so crazy how much the market is up since interest rates hit 5 % or since cash rates hit 5%.
18:07Yes, and they've only lowered rates to 75 basis points. So rates are still above four, whatever, four and a half. It's unbelievable. If you hit out in cash in early 2023 or whatever. Yes. If you timed the market and went into T-bills, you are. Which seemed like a reasonable idea at the time. Yes. So last week, we talked about a study on the difference between the highest valuation stocks and lowest valuation stocks. And I think I was saying, well, isn't a lot of this just the biggest stocks? And Torsten Slock had a chart saying that the top 10, the average PE of the top 10 companies in the S &P is almost 50.
18:48Pulled up by Tesla, which is like 120 or so. But Broadcom and NVIDIA and Eli Lilly, would you have thought Eli Lilly is trading for 62 times earnings? Is that a surprise to you? No. As one of the highest? So the average of the top 10 is around 50. The average of the top four is 40. And the S &P itself trades at an average 26. So again, I don't know if this lines up with that study from last week about the highest valuation stocks outperforming, but there are very high valuations for the top 10 stocks. Look at this chart from ChartKid, the forward PE for the S &P 500. So it's getting up there. It is getting up there.
19:30But does it matter? Yes, maybe. I mean, again, we've been on a spectacular run. And we've been asking for the last three months, is this as good as it gets? Obviously, it got gooder. This is an interesting framing on value stocks and growth. John authors via the Daily Chartbook, the value factor had its best day since the worst of the pandemic after the election. And he said, when growth is plentiful, investors look for stocks that are cheap. In these conditions, it's value that's in short supply, not growth. Oh, interesting. Never thought about it that way. So that is the idea. Like a lot of times you get these economic pivot points and then you see the changes in leadership and you wonder if this election is that pivot point.
20:21Well, I mean, it certainly was, whether it's sustainable or not, or, you know, we'll see. But a lot of people have been talking about credit spreads, whether it's investment grade or high yield. You threw a chart in here from Torsten Slack. I saw somebody tweet this morning. It's at the lowest levels since like 1998, I think. Just absurdly tight between treasuries and these other bonds, these higher risk bonds. And I saw somebody make a good point that, yes, spreads are at the tightest levels in a long, long time, which of course is indicative of risk appetite. and confidence in these companies' abilities to pay them back and all that sort of good stuff.
21:00But you also have to look at the absolute level of yields. Like it makes sense that when the treasury – when the tenure is at 2.5%, I don't want investment bonds at 3.5 % or 3 % for that matter. Like I need a bigger spread. When treasury yields are 4.5 % and the economy is healthy, it makes sense that you're going to be okay with a 5.5%, 6 % yield. You know what I mean? This is also the kind of thing where it's like valuations not being a signal in the stock market. You look at this and you go, just wait. One day when spreads blow out, you're going to look back at these low spreads and go, of course, that was a sign.
21:35But look at historically. There have been long, long periods of time where spreads have remained narrow for multi-year periods. So you can't use this as some kind of timing indicator that spreads are tight. So I looked over the past year. Small caps had a huge run up the first day after the election. They're up like 6%. And over the last year, the S &P and the Russell 2000 are basically the same level. They both gained roughly 40%, 39%, 40%. And small caps have had these huge run-ups, and then they come back, and then a huge run-up, and they come back. But I looked over the past three years. Over the past three years, the S &P is up 33%.
22:08Because remember, the three-year period includes 2022, which is a bad year. But the Russell 2000 is basically flat. Well, higher interest rates killed him. Yes. But this is the kind of thing where you would go, So, okay, if you're looking for what has more room to run and what's cheaper and what's underperformed, it's everything else, right? And small caps is one of those everything else things. Yeah. Yes, yes, yes. All right. So the election was an inflection point for risk assets. Again, who knows how long this is going to last, but the good times are certainly here. Well, it's funny, though, that's an inflection point because it's an inflection point, but also things were already going really well.
22:48Yeah. Yeah. It's like things just kept, they just took off a little bit more. Yes. So Balchunas tweeted, the amount of cash flowing into ETFs is ridiculous. About$12 billion a day for the past week, and normal is$3 billion to$4 billion. And it's basically all risk gone. SPY, the Qs, small caps, momentum, high yield, banks, Bitcoin. Okay, we need exit polling for this, just like they have at the voting booth. Because I want to know, when this money flows in and you're seeing these much higher levels going in, And I want to know, where is this coming from, people? Is this money market funds? Is this bonds?
Read the full transcript
23:23Where are you taking this money from to put it into the stock market? Yeah, that's a great - On exit polling. That's a great thought. Speaking of ETFs, I had a conversation with Meb Faber over at advisorunlock.com. That's advisorunlock.com. We are going to be creating, as I think we mentioned this last week, we're going to be creating a lot more content for advisors. and Meb Faber and Cambria have this new really cool idea that's being launched with the good folks over at ETF Architect. And it's a way for investors to seed an ETF. Yes, seed an ETF with existing securities that ostensibly have appreciated a lot.
24:04And you own it because for the most part, who wants to pay taxes, right? It's like, oh, I've owned stock XYZ and I'm up 900%. And would I put all my money in it today or temp set my portfolio today? No, but I also don't want to pay the taxes. So the ways that you were able to get out of those and into a more diversified basket, like with something like called an exchange fund, not great. So Meb and ETF Architect built this thing where you swap your existing securities for shares in an ETF. The tax bill doesn't go away, but you get much more diversification. Yeah, you're deferring. And we've had this from so many people coming to us saying, I've got huge gains in these stocks.
24:47I know I need to diversify, but how do I do it without triggering a big tax bill? This is the, I think there's so many cool things that investors have access to today that people in the past could only dream of. Yes. Right? The fact that there's so many ways to solve problems for financial problems for investors these days that they have. And obviously, having huge gains in your portfolio, like, oh, that's a problem. But it is if you know you need to diversify and lay off some of that risk. And this is such a cool way to do it. And Meb was saying that he has never gotten more interest in something in his life working in the fund industry.
25:24And it makes sense. This is an amazing financial planning tool. Yes, it's really, really cool. All right. I want to talk about this real quick. Speaking of Alpha Architect, Larry Swedger wrote a piece and he was highlighting a study by Robin Greenwood and Marco Salmon called the disappearing index effect. And this is a summary of their findings. This blew my face. It's one of these things where we talk about how stocks tend to go up in anticipation of being added to the index and fall when they're removed. And I think historically that was true. And it's just one of the things that unite your head.
25:55Yeah, it makes sense. Apparently that's not true anymore. So they say, what was your Mandelbrot quote? Oh, hold on. The trend has vanished, killed by its discovery. They say the impact from additions grew from an average total return of 3.4 % in the 1980s to 7.4 % in the 1990s. Despite the increase in indexing assets, the average price impact decreased in the 2000s to 5.2%. And then it fell further to below 1 % in the most recent decade. And they say a similar pattern has occurred, Logan, come here, with index deletions. The average effect of being removed was negative 4.6 % in the 80s, negative 16.0 % in the 90s, down to negative 12 % from 2000 to 2009, and a statistically indistinguishable event from zero to negative 0 .6 % from 2010 to 2020.
26:47So stocks getting removed from the index doesn't kill them anymore. Look at this little guy. What's up, big man? we went to stop the Botanical Gardens yesterday for like a Nightmare Before Christmas type of event you know I saw that movie in the theater that I'm positive of this is not a Field of Dreams type thing I did too actually and it was a little bit scary for me when I saw it but I'm a little bit surprised that it's become such like an iconic classic no I didn't love it I remember not loving it we watched it with my kids a couple weeks ago and they loved it it was like I think it was too sophisticated for us but it's weird that our kids love it cause yeah love it that movie is my kids die hard.
27:25They got in an argument about, is this a Halloween movie or a Christmas movie? It's both. Yes. And I don't know. There's a song in it called This Is Halloween. So my son stuck his guns on that and the girl said it's Christmas. You know, speaking of Halloween, Robin secretly loves scary movies. Anytime I turn them on, she's right there with me. We were watching Rob Zombie's Halloween in bed on Sunday morning. And she's like, what is this? So stupid. What a beautiful way to start a Sunday morning. And yeah, that movie's a bit demented. But she liked it. She said this is so dumb. She was trying to like poke holes in the plot.
28:00How did he get back home? Listen, this is Halloween. This is not Shakespeare. Yeah, you have to turn your brain off for the plots for these movies. Okay. But I didn't realize this index stuff existed. That is a surprise to me. Yeah. All right. So this last week has been a whole like risk on love fest for anything. Connorsen tried to look at the other side of the economy. And I guess I think I mentioned like we're at the sweet spot of unemployment and inflation and all these things. And the question is, like, does it last? And he said, Trump took over a stable labor market in 2017 with the unemployment rate falling throughout the previous year and payroll growth steadily rising at roughly 200 ,000 a month.
28:41That's not true this time around. The jobless rate has been on a rise. Hiring is below normal and payroll growth has slowed since the first quarter. You wonder if the sentiment numbers actually change that if hiring picks up again. That remains to be seen. And he mentions the fact that mortgage rates are higher and they are moving even higher because of Trump's ideas. And he says, Trump's ideas on tariffs and immigration restrictions may be what voters want, but they represent a risk to the economy next year at a time when consumers are feeling the sting of higher borrowing costs and important aspects of the economy are cooling.
29:06It's possible this all works out fine. Trump is famously unpredictable when it comes to his promises. And we don't know exactly what the future holds for Biden's programs or for Trump's proposed tariff or tax cuts. What is clear now is that Trump has inherited an economy that isn't easy to manage and his campaign promises may only make it harder. So this is where I think a lot of people don't know what to think because does he actually follow through with what he said he's going to do? Or does he rip up that playbook and just start fresh and see what happens? That's where the handicapping is impossible right now.
29:36Did you, but did you know that, so the S &P 500 just crossed 6 ,000? Okay. Do you know where it was at the lows in March, 2020? Oh, you swacked us this the other day. What was it? 20-something? 2 ,200. Wow. That was a generational buying opportunity, right? And remember, like, maybe for a year, we were asking, like, will we ever retest those lows? And ever is a long time, but I don't know. I hope not. I mean, at this point. So we were at 666 was the intraday low, I think, on March 2009. And so we've gone from 600s to 6 ,000. I think the Dow went from five something to 44 ,000. Unbelievable. What a run.
30:22All right, so everyone is in on the reflation trade, right? Rates going higher, worried about inflation. CBS News tweeted this out. If Donald Trump readies to return to Oval Office, U.S. retailers that depend on foreign suppliers are prepared to pass along the cost of his proposed import tariffs to consumers, potentially leading to higher prices for a range of products. Now, I had someone in my family this weekend say, hey, what's the deal with this tariff stuff? I don't know what these are. I've never heard of them. If you had to put a percentage on it, what percentage of the election knows what this is or what it does?
30:54Oh, 2%. Pretty low, right? Yeah. But once people learn what they are, they're going to be pissed, obviously. So that's what I... Will he actually do it? Well, I think from a financial lens, the good news is this man is a narcissist and he cares deeply about the scoreboard. And the scoreboard is the stock market. And so I do think that his goal is not to do any harm to the economy or the stock market. And his economic policies perhaps may be misguided. And if they do damage to the stock market or the economy, I think he'll back off. I do think that if he says, I'm going to put a 30 % tariff on all products coming in from Mexico, I think the stock market would hold his feet to the fire and say, all right.
31:37And I think you did get a sell-off. Yeah, and then I think he says, oh, no, nevermind. yeah but we don't know he's not like an ideologue with these ideas i don't think that why does you know what i mean i think he thinks that's what i think he thinks that's what people want to hear and if the people via the market tell him bad idea i would hope that he listens although we did this we we did the tariffs in his in his last term and the market didn't like it and he still did it so i don't know we'll see but speaking of like interest rates again this is a real estate guy. You think he's going to, you don't think he's going to put pressure on the Fed to lower rates?
32:15I said this in our little, on our election show last week, that if he's dealing with seven, seven and a half percent mortgage rates, I can't imagine that he won't be trying to pressure the Fed into buying mortgage bonds or something or buying treasuries to lower those long-term rates because the Fed can't control those, right? The Fed is lowering short-term rates now, but long-term rates are rising. The long-term rates are the ones for consumers that really matter because now you're going to get lower rates in your cash and you're paying higher borrowing costs. That's not a great, that's not a great trade-off.
32:43Yeah. Um, all right, Ben, so Bitcoin is at 82 ,000. Um, it's up, I don't know, 20 % of the last week, you know, just been on a stupid, crazy run and you got to give it up. I'm a bit flabbergasted is the wrong word because I was, I was and am a believer in higher Bitcoin prices and I have been for a decently long time, but I almost can't believe it. Like they did it. They won. Think back to 2017 or 2015 when we were really like laughing about Bitcoin as a concept, right? And they kept plugging away and they kept plugging away and yeah, they said some crazy shit but they won. I mean, this idea of digital currency and a new form of money and potentially a new financial system which we're not there yet But holy shit, they did it.
33:37They won. I mean, if you are still screaming about Bitcoin, just stop. Like, just find something else to do. I was talking to someone about this last week, and he was anti. And he was saying, listen, everything they've said about crypto didn't come to fruition. It doesn't matter. And that was my point. My point is it doesn't matter. Yeah. It's the adoption piece and it's the fact that people think it's worth something and that's all that matters. You know, what kept me on track with Bitcoin, and I've used this quote in the past, so I owe him a debt of gratitude for this one, is – holy shit. Oh, Bill Miller.
34:18My gosh. From Leg Mason. Well, he used to be at Leg Mason. Bill Miller gave an interview in Barron's years ago and he said something like, Bitcoin supply is increasing at 2 % a year. do you think demand will increase faster or slower than that? And that was it for me. That was it. It was an adoption thing. It always was for me and it always, you know, and they won. Like it's now being discussed on a serious level. Of course, the institutions are there. BlackRock and everybody else is coming through. And now you've got the president is bullish on Bitcoin. And if the central banks legitimately start buying Bitcoin, it's wild.
34:58Like they did it. So someone sent us this meme that was going around, and it's a guy holding a coffee with a vest on, a finance bro, saying, I don't understand Bitcoin, but you're wrong about it. And someone sent us the take was, the fundamental issue is that Ben is a Glass Staff full guy. No one like that will ever get Bitcoin or why people buy it. It's a Glass Staff empty asset. And I don't necessarily agree with this. This is a technological—I mean, I know that people who are in crypto have a lot of Glass Staff empty views about the economy and the dollar and these things. But this is a technological asset.
35:28To me, that's a glass half full asset. It's both. I think the ideological principles of where Bitcoin came from was glass half empty. But I need to defend Ben's honor here because Ben owns probably a lot more Bitcoin than – well, not probably. Ben owns a lot more Bitcoin than this emailer thinks. So credit to Ben. And I bought it in 2017 because I didn't want to be this guy. I didn't want to be the guy beating my head against the wall going, no one understands. I bought it because I wanted it as a hedge. Like some people call it schmuck insurance. That's what I wanted. I didn't want to be a schmuck screaming about it.
36:02And the funny thing to me about crypto is every boom and bust, like when the bust happens, it's like this thing is over with the SBF stuff. It wasn't that long ago. Like this crypto is done. It's over. It's never coming back. And then every time there's a boom, like right now, it's like this thing is never going down again. There is no end. Well, but wait, I feel like check the tape because I think that I think that not that you and I were bullish enough. November 2022. But we did say, why isn't it much lower than$50 ,000? Yes, we were saying it should be at$5 ,000 right now. The fact that it's not going there is like, huh.
36:32All right. So you and I have spoken about this a lot. Not a lot. We've spoken about it recently, more recently. When do we sell? So for me personally, I've always said, I didn't ride Bitcoin from$70 ,000 down to$15 ,000 just to sell when it got back to even. And it's the only asset that I could think about owning that has asymmetric upside. So for me personally, I think I'd rather sell late than sell early. But at 100 ,000, I will be forced to lighten up a little bit. That's my line in the sand because it's already gone nuts. And again, it's going to feel it. You're going to feel it. So here's my plan.
37:10I will not feel like an idiot at 100 ,000. I will have way more money in Bitcoin than I ever thought I would. The only time I've ever sold is to do tax-offs harvesting. So I have more money than I would have ever thought. And when it hits 100 ,000, I'm going to sell half of my position. I'm going to do the regretmentization thing. I'm going to follow my own advice. I'm selling half. That's the Grand Rapids hedge. Yes. But either way, if I go to the extreme, I'm going to probably feel like an idiot. So this is the way that this takes away the feeling of being an idiot. So I still have some on the table, but I'm also locking some in.
37:40And then guess what? When it inevitably crashes in the future, because it will, it'll crash at some point again. Then I'll probably buy some more back. Anyway, just like stepping back, they really did it. And listen, it pains me to say it. I don't know if it pains me to say it because I do own it. Credit where credit is due. Yeah, credit where credit is due. It doesn't pay me to say it. They won. It's just, it is wild to think about, right? Like they had this idea of a digital currency and it sounded like, it sounded like insane. I've told this story. They willed it into existence. And so credit to them.
38:17I've told this story before, but I was at a speech and Muhammad Ilarian was talking about it. This is like 2009. So Bitcoin was still, you know, the white papers out and stuff, but no one owned it. And they asked him like, do you think that we could ever create another asset class? And he kind of said, well, no, everything's just a derivative of what's already out there. And crypto literally is a new asset class. I'm not like throwing shade at him for saying this, But like no one thought that this was going to be an asset class like this back then. Yeah. Yeah. All right. So Michael Saylor is still going at it.
38:45This beautiful maniac is buying. He bought 27 ,000 – between October 31st and November 10th, he bought 27 ,000 Bitcoin for$2 billion at an average price of$74 ,000. So I don't know if this man is a genius or a maniac or both, but they have$12 billion worth of Bitcoin right now. That is kind of scary. Like, is this guy going to become the richest man in the world? It is nuts. I mean, the stock office is going crazy. Someone, the reason that I'm going to be okay selling a little bit is because the crypto people are getting very cocky again. And they should be. But someone did a, pulled what we were saying about Michael Saylor last week and put it in a video and sent it around a bunch of crypto places.
39:26And people tagged me on it. And they always use the word TradFi. Like, look at these two TradFi analysts talking about Saylor. And then they, I sent you this and they compared Michael Saylor to Nikola Tesla and the Wright brothers, which, again, it's worked out for him. But that's why I'm going to be okay because people are getting really cocky again. But they deserve to be cocky. They won like the biggest prize of all. They do. But the Wright brothers, that's a little far. All right. So flows are going nuts. Nate Karasi tweeted, iShares Bitcoin ETF has now surpassed iShares Gold ETF. ETF in assets.
40:05It did this in 10 months. IAU launched in January 2005. Look at this chart, Ben. Wait, so what does GLD have for assets? Are we still a ways away from that? Yeah, I think so. BlackRock took in$4.1 billion of trading volume on Wednesday, not flows. Okay, so GLD has$75 billion in assets. Yeah. But if you put all the ETFs together for Bitcoin against all the gold ETFs together, it's closer than you think probably, right? Yeah, so I guess, is this advisors? Like, where is this money coming from again? At this point? I mean, the people who are just getting in now, and this has to be more hedge fund, institutional trading momentum plays, right?
40:51I would think. I can't imagine that advisors are now en masse. You know what I mean? I'm not speaking for every – all 30 ,000 advisors, whatever it is. I'm sure there are some that are putting their clients in today, obviously. But like a wave of advisors all of a sudden chasing – that's not how advisors behave. Right. Yeah, I don't think so either. I mean, yes. But this obviously feels like a momentum thing to me. You want to talk about this? What is this? Oh, Sean sent us this, which by the way, a lot of people pointed out that Sean is actually an Irish word. and somehow the, listen, we know that words come from different dialects and that's what makes words that don't look right to pronounce, but I'm just saying, let's just start over.
41:34Every word has to look like it sounds. That's all I want. I get it. There's some history there and, but Sean is seen. Well, there's an alternate spelling, of course. It's, you know, Sean Kemp. That's true. All right, so Julie Chang tweeted this out. This is a top-selling Lenar home community north of Houston. And the house is currently listed for$163 ,000. It's two bed, two and a half bath, a thousand square feet roughly. And saying like these things are selling like gangbusters. And I think we need to make more of these. I don't think people realize that the houses our grandparents were buying in the 1950s when they came home from the war, they were this size.
42:16They weren't two story. They were flatter, but that's how big they were. Like a thousand square feet. Where do you put the boiler in this house? I'd miss that room for a bucket. Did you get it fixed yet? Yeah, of course. Okay. But I can see the appeal of this if you want to become a homeowner. Yeah. It makes sense. I looked at the pictures too. It's pretty nice. All right, a bunch of people sent us this after I said, where's our private credit index? And they said, it's been here for a while. Cliffwater Direct Lending Index. This thing exists. Covers$315 billion of assets and 15 ,000 loan holdings.
42:52It's gone back a while away as two, I guess. Middle market corporate loans. Okay. I'm not going to lie. I've been involved in some way with private investments for the last 15 years, maybe longer than that. And I still like the middle market mezzanine, like some of these phrases. Well, I think middle market is just like, it's like mid caps, right? It's like a size thing. Yes. But I feel like they made those terms up to like mezzanine. Yeah. Sorry, mezzanine, that's a balcony. Right? Yeah. Just speak English, damn it. Yeah. All right. I listened to a call this week for great quarter guys, Zillow.
43:38And Zillow was up like 20 % the day they reported. And how do I know this? Because I still own the stock. One of the very few individual stocks I still own. They've had a great year or so. There's a gap up at 84. So more room to run. That gap's not going to get filled? Or we're filling the gap? We're filling the gap. But how does the 20 % gap up get filled down? Or that's a different gap? Perhaps. Okay. I'd have later did. The interesting thing to me was how much their whole presentation was about the rental market. And I think they just see the writing on the wall that housing activity is probably just going to be low for a while.
44:17they're like it's hard to see housing activity all of a sudden just come roaring back oh is it the seven percent mortgage like what gave that away that might be it so they they talk about the rental market and they talk about how there's i don't know 26 million units and that are single units 22 million that are multi-family and they look at kind of their their tam of this um but i I thought the interesting thing was the amount of turnover that occurs in these. What was it? Oh, average turnover is like 35 % of online listings. So it's like they call these long tail multifamily units. So less than 25 units, more than 25 units.
44:58And it's 30 % for the long tail, 40 % for multifamily. Are those numbers higher than you would have thought for rental turnover? That's very high to me. I don't think so. How long do the people stay in the rental for? I don't know. Yeah, I guess so. I mean, I guess that's the whole point. It's more flexible. 40 % turnover every year? It seems like a lot. I guess it happens. All right. Duncan is none too pleased with DoorDash. Welcome to the club. New DoorDash nightmare for everyone to be aware of. They allow restaurants to recharge your credit card after an order is placed if they need to adjust the price.
45:35So I just ordered two entrees that were$19.99 on the menu. 20 minutes later after placing the order, I saw an additional charge pop up. they adjusted the price from$19.99 to$28 per item. Is this just a New York thing? No, he doesn't live in New York anymore. DoorDash told me there's nothing they can do. Yeah, this is nonsense. He's mad at his private burrito taxi. All right, Scott Galloway had this. He talked about how this was another hindsight bias thing. Everyone said, okay, podcasting was the thing that really swung the election. And he looks at the median age of audiences by cable news and primetime TV news and newspapers and talk radio and magazines.
46:09and all of those are 50 plus. Cable news is 70, the median age. Primetime TV is 65, it's median age. Podcasting is 34 for the median age. And I think that from our experience of talking to our audience, there's obviously a wide range, but that seems to make sense to me. But what happens to cable news when a generation dies off? Do we graduate into it? It goes like this. And then like eventually it'll peak and then just whoop, right? It'll just go all the way down. I mean, like when that generation dies off, does cable news die off with it? Like, or do we just graduate into it? Do we become our parents?
46:53Well, we do become our parents. That is a rule of the show. So that's what I'm wondering. But can you see yourself ever watching cable news? This is different. We're never watching cable news. This is different. I tend to agree. By the way, one thing that we can all rejoice on is the fact that there's no more election commercials. Oh, thank God. I appreciate that. Bill Burr made a good point. He's like, why do we drag this election out for a year? It did seem way too long. I think it should be like two months. That's it. Yeah, nobody changes their mind. You know, I'm not going to say what I was going to say.
47:28Let's keep going. I saw the wheels turning. I'm not going to say anything I want to say. That's okay. All right. Wine cork. I got a few good tips on this. Take the bottle and tip it on its side and have some sort of receptacle underneath as some wine will come out. Take something long and feel like a fondue fork. You definitely have a fondue fork in all your drawers, right? I'm sure you have. I don't know what, I don't even, I don't even, is fondue? It's like the cheese, the melted cheese, then you dip stuff in it. Oh. You've never been to a melting pot restaurant before? Uh-uh. What's the meat that you cook in a liquid?
48:01I thought that was fondue. No, fondue is cheese. what's the meat that you cook? I am not very cultured or worldly. I don't know about these things. Okay. So, solid pressure. But it sounds like basically there's no good way to do this. Okay. All right. Someone also says, if your iPhone isn't handy, you need to hang up after a call. Double click either of your AirPods. It'll hang up. Yeah. What if my hands are full? That's the problem. You know what? I felt like a hypocrite. And I think I told them myself. Like, how would I know that the other person doesn't hang up? I guess because I don't hang up.
48:34Exactly. I told you this happened with us the other day. It was like a six minute call and we just had a standoff. No one had to hang up. I finally had to hang up. We talked last week and neither of us hung up and it just kept going. Really? Yeah. All right. So guilty. You know, my mom used to always say a phrase, you can notice an ant at somebody else, but not an elephant at yourself. Guilty as charged. I guess I don't hang up either. all right kept this one relatively quick I have to go to Kobe's got an all day lacrosse tournament like we're off for Veterans Day so a thank you to the veterans who serve this country and who served this country I think I don't know how many percent of people like have a family member or ancestor that was a veteran we were talking about this today for most of us it was yeah and we have a handful of veterans on staff at Rituals Wealth shout out to our veterans All right.
49:30Recommendations? Are you caught up on the Penguin? No, I'm still a little behind. What have I been doing lately? I don't know. I will watch it, though. I'm going to binge it. I thought the ending was spectacular. Okay, but it was a one-season show? It's not coming back or it is? Oh, no, no, no. It's coming back. Oh, yeah. Okay, I thought it was a miniseries. All right. Really good. All right, so my wife and I watched My Old Ass on Prime this weekend. We started it. Was it good? Okay. 90-minute movie, which is great to me. This is the kind of movie that you want to watch on your couch, not in the theater.
50:06It's a coming of age. You know the premise, obviously. Yeah, yeah. The older version, the middle-aged version of herself comes to an 18-year-old to talk to her and give her advice. And I loved the setup. I thought it was, I don't think it's a Michael movie. I could be wrong, but I really enjoyed it. And there was, the weird thing is, is that I'm now seeing this movie through the middle-aged version or the parent, as opposed to the younger person. There was a moment where it's a daughter who's 18 going away to college and she's having a conversation with her mother. And the mom is talking about like, I feel like I was just rocking you to sleep as a baby.
50:38And I'm thinking about my kids going away to school. And I had the same, like I got choked up at this point where they're talking about the daughter leaving for school. And I thought the ending was very well done. It was, my wife kind of guessed it. I didn't guess it, but it was really good coming of age movie. You know what? I think it is a Michael movie. How about that? Okay. You know, somebody, somebody, somebody, because I know coming of age movies are more your thing than mine. Somebody said to me recently, can't remember who it was. I love how everyone in bed's recommendations, it's like, I don't think you're going to like this.
51:10That's true. No, give it a try. I really like, but again, I'm viewing it now instead of the young person, I'm viewing it through the lens of the older person, the middle-aged person, and that's a weird change for me. I don't know. I was just reminded of this. I was out to dinner last night with friends. We went to the thing in the Bronx, So we went to Arthur Avenue for Italian food. And they have an eight-year-old, nine-year-old who's in a stock picking contest. And he said, oh, talk to Michael. He loves talking to kids about stocks. And my friend was joking. And not that he was making a joke to the son because how would the son know, right?
51:43But he was – in his mind, he was like laughing when he said that. And his eight-year-old said, he doesn't give me those vibes. All right. That's really young for a stock picking contest, right? Smart eight-year-old. I'm glad they're getting them in early. All right, one more. We watched Mighty Ducks and Mighty Ducks 2 this weekend for our family 90s revival. And the thing I told you, I texted you, I forgot, Emilio Estevez is a terrible actor. Horrendous. Just really bad. All right, what's more impressive? What's more impressive? The Bitcoiners willing a currency and asset class into existence or the Mighty Ducks getting an NHL team?
52:23I was telling my kids this. I'm like, you realize that this movie spawned an NHL team. What's more improbable? It is pretty crazy. I don't know. I think Adam Banks having his wrist be fine just in time for the last game was more improbable for D2. My kids were cheering at the end of both of the games. It's so good. It's so good. All right, Ben. We've got Gladiator coming up. you're not seeing that in theater are you oh of course I am oh you are oh yes but here's the thing would you allow your son to watch Gladiator 1 because we went to see a movie yesterday with our family and we saw the Gladiator 2 poster and my son goes I want to watch number 1 so bad and I said eh fine and my wife said absolutely not I'd let him watch it although I'm such a hypocrite like I you know I saw Nightmare on Elm Street when I was 8 yeah but no Gladiator is definitely not appropriate for our kids of course it's not but I don't care.
53:20No. All right. Okay. Oh, thanks to everyone who signed up for our Chicago live event. I think we basically sold out the venue. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, so the venue was at capacity. A lot of people were disappointed that they couldn't come, but we have good news. We've got, how many employees do we have in Chicago? 10? More? A lot. We have a big presence in Chicago. All right, so we're getting phenomenal office space. I can't wait to get it. It's being built out as we speak. And it's got a venue attached to it that is going to be great for podcasting. Yeah. We'll do more stuff there in the future.
53:57Hosting. So, yes, we will certainly be doing that in the future. All right. Thank you to everyone for listening. Thank you to the veterans. Thank you to Duncan and Squad. As always, animal spirits at the compound news.com. We'll see you next time.
54:18We'll be right back.
From the publisher
On episode 386 of Animal Spirits, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss: why Trump won, how the Dems fumbled the economic messaging, how this will impact recession spending moving forward, 30% gains in the stock market, credit spreads, the reflation trade, how many people understand tariffs, how Bitcoin won, tiny houses, Mighty Ducks, and much more!
This episode is sponsored by Roundhill Investments and Fabric by Gerber Life.
Today's show is brought to you by Roundhill Investments and the Magnificent Seven ETF, ticker symbol MAGS. Learn more at: https://roundhillinvestments.com/etf/mags
Join the thousands of parents who trust Fabric to protect their family. Apply today in just minutes at https://meetfabric.com/spirits.
Sign up for The Compound newsletter and never miss out: thecompoundnews.com/subscribe
Subscribe to The Unlock newsletter: https://www.advisorunlock.com/subscribe
Find complete show notes on our blogs:
Ben Carlson’s A Wealth of Common Sense
Michael Batnick’s The Irrelevant Investor
Feel free to shoot us an email at animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation.
Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information.
Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here:
https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
