In short
Animal Spirits Podcast - Episode 365: The Fed Needs to Cut
Episode Overview In this episode of the Animal Spirits Podcast, hosts Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss various topics related to the current economic climate, particularly focusing on the Federal Reserve's need to cut interest rates. They explore market sentiments, housing prices, the impact of AI on the economy, and the psychology behind consumer behavior.
Key Topics Covered
- Federal Reserve Rate Cuts
- Reasons why it's time for the Fed to cut rates.
- Current economic indicators, such as rising unemployment and decreasing jobless claims.
- Historical context regarding the Fed's monetary policy and its impact on the economy.
- Market Behavior and Valuation
- Discussion on when valuations will matter again in the stock market.
- The dynamic nature of the U.S. economy, especially considering the AI boom.
- The concept of rolling recessions and their implications for different sectors.
- Real Estate Market Insights
- Overview of housing prices and the current trend of stagnant or declining prices.
- Factors influencing housing prices, including supply and demand dynamics.
- The phenomenon of Americans being less willing to move, impacting the housing market.
- Social Commentary
- Insights into consumer behavior changes, particularly during economic fluctuations.
- Reflections on personal finance perspectives following tragedy and life changes.
- The relationship between economic conditions and crime rates.
Key Takeaways
- Fed's Position on Interest Rates
- There's a consensus that it's time for the Fed to cut interest rates, with many arguing that current economic data supports this action.
- A potential cut is seen as a signal of economic recovery after recent challenges.
- Valuation and Market Sentiment
- Valuation has historically proven to be a critical factor in market performance, suggesting that it will eventually matter again.
- The ongoing AI revolution presents both opportunities and risks for future economic stability.
- Housing Market Trends
- Although housing prices are currently stable, a significant change in interest rates could unlock demand while simultaneously increasing supply.
- The historical trend of Americans moving is declining, suggesting a shift in consumer behavior.
- Psychological Insights
- The hosts discuss how personal experiences and tragedies can alter financial behaviors and decisions.
- The link between economic health and social issues such as crime rates illustrates the broader impact of market conditions on society.
- Consumer Spending
- The episode highlights a growing tendency for individuals to prioritize experiences over accumulating wealth, especially in light of life's unpredictability.
Pivotal Moments
- Discussion on Economic Indicators: When discussing the importance of economic indicators such as jobless claims and inflation rates, the hosts emphasize that these metrics are critical for the Fed's decision-making.
- Thought Experiment on Recession: A segment where they speculate on the potential for a prolonged economic boom raises questions about the inevitability of recessions.
- Personal Reflections: Michael and Ben share personal anecdotes regarding their financial philosophies and how life events have shaped their views on money management and spending.
Conclusion This episode of the Animal Spirits Podcast provides an engaging discussion on the current economic landscape, the Federal Reserve's potential actions, and the implications for investors and consumers alike. The hosts mix data-driven analysis with personal reflections, offering listeners both insights and relatable experiences.
---
Additional Resources
- Sponsors: Sponsored by YCharts and CME Group.
- Follow-up: Listeners are encouraged to explore the Compound newsletter for ongoing financial insights.
Contact Information
- Feedback and Suggestions: Reach out at [animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com](mailto:animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com) for questions or topic suggestions.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00This episode is brought to you by State Farm. listening to this podcast smart move being financially savvy smart move another smart move having state farm help you create a competitive price when you choose to bundle home and auto bundling just another way to save with a personal price plan like a good neighbor state farm is there prices are based on rating plans that vary by state coverage options are selected by the customer availability amount of discounts and savings and eligibility vary by state with Black Friday's savings at the Home Depot you can get up to$1 ,400 off plus get free delivery on select appliances like LG America's most reliable line of appliances check out the newest LG refrigerator with new mini craft ice straight from the dispenser shop Black Friday's savings on select LG appliances plus get free delivery now at the Home Depot free delivery on appliance purchases of$396 or more offer valid 11-5 through 12-3 US only, see store online for details
1:04Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing. Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.
1:34Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. I still don't get the hot dog hamburger analogy, but what I do know... Fold a piece of paper. When you fold it when it's up top to bottom, you fold it and it's skinnier. So it's like a hot dog bun. You fold it from side to side, it's wider. So it's like a hamburger bun. All right. If you say so. You never got that analogy in school? Nah. All right. They didn't teach that in Indiana, I guess. You should have stayed longer. Should the Fed cut rates? Ben, I went to Trader Joe's over the weekend. Actually, I went to Trader Joe's. I was wearing a Tropical Bros shirt.
2:06Not this one. I was wearing one that I never worn before. It's got flamingos on it. And you and I were just talking the other day about how Tropical Bros is a great conversation starter. And it's just great looking and comfortable and all the other accolades it deserves. But the guy at the counter said to me, great shirt. And listen, I'd say 90 % of the time that I wear a Tropical Bros shirt, I get a comment. Probably rounds closer to 100. But he goes, that shirt looks like where I want to be. And I said, I agree. Great shirts. So now we have a collab at Tropical Bros. Oh, yeah. We do have a collab.
2:42Compound Media has its own Tropical Bros collab. But Trader Joe's. Okay. So I checked out. And here's what I got from Trader Joe's. I got a pint of yogurt. Plain yogurt. I like to use it in my smoothies. I got two bags of chips, the delicious corn chips from Trader Joe's. Do you have Trader Joe's in Grand Rapids? I got one right down the street from my office. You know the great corn chips? They're like Fritos. Okay. Never had them before, but sure. You should. So two bags of chips, pico de gallo, hummus, and a thing of donuts. Guess how much I was. I don't know. You just named a lot of stuff.
3:23Are you trying to go viral here with this one? Exactly. I named a lot of stuff and it was$27. Okay. Again, to reiterate, yogurt, two bags of chips, two dips, donuts,$27. And I thought, it's over. Inflation is over. Food's been a lingering issue. That sounds about right to me. That price? All right, well, it sounds reasonable. How about this? Sounds right, reasonable? Most of the smarter economic minds that I follow that are like more of the sober variety, I feel like are saying, you know what, I think it's just time to rip the bandaid off and cut rates. Colin Roche had a piece at Discipline Funds this weekend.
4:00He says, if Thursday's relatively high jobless claims future persists through this year, then we're likely to trigger a recession warning according to his metric that he follows where the trends are going in the wrong direction. There are numerous other signs that cutting could be appropriate. Rising unemployment, rising claims, falling hourly earnings, and core PCE that is likely to be at 2.55 % in May. He's saying we're close enough to the 2 % target. Let's not get cute here. Let's just do it. I don't understand. I was talking about this last week, and I don't think I was emphatic enough on the show, on TCAF, saying, why would Powell just give an inch?
4:34He's acting like it's still stubbornly high. No, it's not. No, it is not. It's time to cut. I also think the cutting of the rates is also a signal that maybe we won. We beat this thing. Nothing's ever over when it comes to the markets of the economy. When we discussed earlier in the year, maybe it was even last year. I understood the rationale. Listen, we're so close. You don't want to spike the ball on the one yard line. But at this point, I think we scored a touchdown. And I still feel that the Fed in the future is probably going to get more credit than they deserve. I think the economy was so strong that it saved the Fed.
5:07They wanted to put people out of a job and it didn't happen. But at this point, the unemployment rate is rising a little bit. Things are still, people will use anecdotes, say, no way the Fed, they can't cut rates. This is crazy. But But even if they cut rates 25, 50, 75 basis points in the coming months, rates are still relatively high from what they've been for the past 20 years. Ben, last week, you were talking about people that have been bearish, were bearish during the GFC and are still bearish, and they just can't let it go. Credit to Steve Eisenman from The Big Short. He's been talking about how incredibly dynamic the US economy is.
5:44And that and the AI revolution has held up the economy. He's like one of the rare ones that got out. It is. And yeah, I don't think cutting rates doesn't necessarily have to mean the economy is tanking and we're going to go into a financial crisis. I think it's just following what's going on. So ApartmentList had this national rent inflation, and it's been negative for, I don't know, six or eight months now. If you look at the year-over-year change in rent, which would probably surprise some people, and they're comparing it to the actual CPI rent, which as we've talked about, is a different calculation because that is backward looking and this is using current data.
6:20Conor Sen quoted something from RealPage. The US median rent income ratio for market rate apartments has recorded 15 straight months of decline. From a purely rent to income-based perspective, rents are now at their most affordable level since January, 2021. I feel like that's big news. It is big news. So rents have been slowly declining. Incomes have continued to go up, meaning it's more affordable now. And this is where the inflation numbers don't take it into account. And Jeremy Schwartz, our friend at Wisdom Tree, has been talking about this for months and months and months. If you put the actual rent inflation, what it is now for that CPI component, because that's the biggest part, inflation looks pretty darn low still.
6:59Under 2%. That's the case to cut. At defense target. So why would they remain restrictive? Well, GameStop, right? People use these anecdotes of, well, of course, I know. I just rolled my eyes big time. Come on. No, really, what are they doing? I don't know. Matthew Klein had a piece about this. U.S. CPI rose 0.006 % between April and May. Essentially, it didn't rise at all. He said, moreover, disinflation is broad-based. While a few categories experienced notably declines, like airfares, subscriptions, computer software, and gasoline, each of which fell by almost 4%, the really notable feature of the latest data is that there were so few categories that rose by very much, if at all.
7:40So, yeah, I agree. I think it's okay for the Fed to take a little bit of a victory lap, even if they'll never do that. But I think that first cut is the sign like, hey, we won. Ben, would you allow me a thought experiment that sounds incredibly toppy and will likely draw the ire of some listeners? Yes, because every anecdote has to be a top or a bottom, right? No, but this one's going to do it. Okay. So since the great financial crisis and outside of the COVID-induced recession, how many recessions have there been over the last 15 years? One that lasted for, what, two months? Which one? I'm saying take the COVID one out.
8:22Oh, take it out. Well, there's been none. Okay. Yeah, since the GFC. Which is interesting, like, counterfactual. Would we have had a recession in, like, 2020 or 2021? short of the COVID pandemic happening. Anyway, keep going. So a little thought experiment. I know recessions are natural, inevitable, I would go as far to say. What if we just keep cruising for like another 10 years? 10 years seems like a bit much, but it's, I don't know, it's happened in a place like Australia before. What if the AI revolution is even 50 % as big as people say it's going to be. And we just ride this wave for... Now, the clear and obvious, hey, asshole, is we're going to get a bubble and a burst.
9:13Yes. The AI boom is what would actually cause the recession because it would cause excesses. And that's what people don't understand is that recessions are typically caused from excesses in the economy. And so the AI boom, if it happens, the bigger boom would be the thing that causes the excesses and causes the recession. Well, that's such a good point. So, yeah, I forget who said this. I used to hear Mark Dow say it. I don't know if you made this up, but you don't break a leg jumping out of the first floor window. And that's sort of been the story of the economy over the last 15 years. It's been pretty steady, humming along, far from blistering growth.
9:49But what if we continue? I think the sentiment would have proved, too, if the Fed, if the Fed signal, we're going to cut rates, and we're going to do it, we're going to be data dependent still, and we're going to like cut back to zero, but we're going to slowly but surely bring rates down. I feel like American consumers hate high interest rates almost as much as they hate high inflation because we love to borrow and spend in this country. Yeah, I don't think it's crazy to say that there will be rolling recessions as there always are. There's always some industries that are struggling, but all right, no recession in the next five years plus plus 350 higher, lower.
10:27making the number up. I would probably take those odds. Meaning you would bet, you would hit that. You would bet that. Oh, yeah. Plus 350, you would, yeah. Pretty good, I think. I'd say benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. No, I think you're misunderstanding. I'm saying, what are the odds that there won't be a recession in the next five years? Oh, yeah. So I'm saying if you give me plus 350 for no recession, I'd take it. Oh, you would take that. Okay. I think that's pretty good odds. Okay. All right. From Axios, 2024 will be the US restaurant industry's biggest year ever in sales. Remember when there was thought pieces in 2020 that like 50 % of all restaurants are going under?
11:05Yeah. I tended to like actually give some credence to that. But wait, a lot of restaurants did disappear. Yeah, I don't think as many as people thought. So it's$1.1 trillion in restaurant sales up from$864 billion in 2019. And there was a big drop off, obviously. And now it looks like, I don't know, we're back on some sort of trend. But that's one thing that you've always talked about. Like you can't compare current spending to pre-pandemic spending because people have changed their habits. And this seems like one of the areas where a lot of people have changed is just going out to eat more and not caring about the prices.
11:39Because we all know the prices are way higher at any restaurant you go to. How often do you order in a week versus cook? I feel like we've been cooking more lately. But, I mean, we probably order in more for the kids than for us. I mean, the thing is, once you factor in, now, it's impossible to argue that cooking is not cheaper than going out. But once you factor in going to the grocery store, preparing. Yeah, it's convenience. You're paying for convenience in time. Right, right. Especially with kids. This is why I always say the best thing that's ever happened to families is the$5 pizza at Little Caesars.
12:20Hot and ready. It's my kids' favorite pizza. They still offer that$5? It's like$5.55 now. Sacrilegious for New York people. But for some reason, my kids, it's their favorite pizza, Little Caesars. I do enjoy cooking. But man, just ordering is so much easier. See, I don't really cook. My wife does all the cooking. So she handles all that. You know, I tell you some of my family responsibilities. I dominate the kitchen. Robin is nowhere to be seen. She doesn't do the dishes. She doesn't unload the dishes. She doesn't cook. Now, she does a lot of other things. But inside the kitchen, that's my domain.
12:54And I can't believe that that became my domain. You should see how I load the dishwasher. It's like a bomb went off. I just throw dishes in there. You've sent pictures before. See, this is where I shine. I'm the clean, organized freak. So my wife does all the cooking. I do the cleaning. I handle the dishes. And I can get everything to fit in there nicely. And it's all, you know, it goes in the same level or row every time. Everything's neat, in order. I make that dishwasher. Yeah, I know what I'm doing. That's where I help. All right. Torsten Slock, chart of the week. He shows the decile PE ratio for the S &P 500.
13:30And the highest decile, meaning the biggest companies, have the highest PE ratio. The lowest decile, meaning the smallest companies, have the lowest PE ratio. and it's kind of funny because my entire career starting out, I read all the value books you could want. Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Howard Marks. The price is what you get value, or what is it? Prices is what you pay. Value is what you get. There are no such thing as bad investments, only bad prices. Valuation matters eventually, and it seems like a lot of that has been shoved to the side and like, actually, actually, we buy these compounders and you pay up for quality because those quality businesses deserve a higher multiple.
14:11Second level thinking has cost me a lot of money. I got to be honest. So my question is, when is this going to matter again? Be specific. What do you mean? Valuation, because it did matter after the dot-com bubble blew up and value and quality and dividend strategies went on an amazing run. People still somehow forget that the NASDAQ had a great depression level nuclear bomb go off and it fell more than 80 % following the dot-com bubble. It was, the S &P got cut in half. The Nasdaq was on more than 80%. Yeah. And value strategies did really well the first decade of the 2000s and feels like since then it's growth and these companies have done much, much better.
14:54My point is just when will stocks with lower valuations, when will they outperform for a meaningful period of time? That I don't know. I'll tell you when this will matter and this is not a helpful answer. It's when the growth rates disappoint investors. Yeah, it's an expectations thing, right? That's the whole. The thing is, and you can't argue otherwise, as high as the expectations have been, fundamentals have done even better. Fundamentals have exceeded. That's why these stocks keep moving higher. Yeah, and they've totally done better than you would imagine. We were sharing charts today. Apple was trading for a sub 10 P ratio in 2016.
15:29So some of these were low valuation companies. Not all of them have been high valuation the whole time. so i i got interested in the the market cap rankings looking after looking at these deciles and i had our chart guy put this together for us and i i was tempted to do a pie chart like your famous infamous pie chart back in the day and just show all the tiny little slices remember you had and it just went viral i remember yeah but i did i did a bar chart instead and because i i looked i just did a quick scroll i pulled up all the s p 500 stocks by market cap from y charts and i exported it. And there's way more smallish companies than you would think.
16:03It really is a tail kind of event with the Apples and Microsofts and NVIDIAs of the world. So I looked, over 400 of these companies in the S &P have a market cap below$100 billion. $100 billion is gigantic. It's kind of funny that you're considering that small. But the bottom 60 % of companies are$45 billion and below. The smallest one is$6 billion. I don't know. I mean, I'm just saying that the size of the multiple of these largest companies to the other companies is enormous. You're saying$100 million is still pretty big. No,$100 billion. $100 billion is pretty big, but compare that to$3 trillion.
16:41And that's my point is that the biggest ones are so much bigger than all these other companies. Like, they're not even in the same ballpark. If you look at the price-to-sales ratio for Apple, In the 2010s, it fluctuated between two and a half times on the low end and four and a half times on the upper end. And then it just completely busted out of that range. And I'm not saying price of sales isn't necessarily the right metric, but just to show you where it's traded at. And now, just this past week or past month, it's busted out to an all-time high of nine times. Now, obviously, that's anticipation and hope of the upgrade cycle and the AI and all that sort of stuff.
17:17But yeah, expectations are continuing to creep ever higher. I don't have it yet, but I'm going to also show the performance by these deciles. And I'm guessing the chart would look exactly the same. The lowest valuations have seen the lowest returns and the highest. My point is, unless investing has fundamentally changed forever, this is going to matter at some point. I just don't know when. It has to, right? You are going out on a limb. It seems like some people are thinking, though, that like, no, it's never going to matter anymore. I think there is a cohort of people who really think this. Like, valuations literally don't matter anymore.
17:52You don't think that's a thing that... I don't think you would get anybody to say that out loud. Now, they're behaving as if it doesn't matter. And guess what? Guess what? That's been rewarded. So why wouldn't they? The meme of the guy throwing away the intelligent investor book, I feel like a lot of people have really taken that to heart. Yeah, they should. Yeah, wild stuff. Eric Soda tweeted, in the past 21 quarters of earnings calls, which goes back to 2019, this quarter marks the fourth fewest number of times the word recession has been mentioned. Every time you say Eric Soda, I take a sip of my Coke Zero.
18:30And my Pamplemousse. Is that really what it's called? Okay. You know, it is interesting how brands come in and go out of favor. I saw somebody tweet a chart of, like, where did LaCroix come from? I don't know. One day it was here. That's true. Who owns them? I have no idea. Does Coca-Cola own them? That's a great question. Pepsi? Google it. Google it while I'm talking. Okay. I saw somebody tweet a chart of the company Burberry and the drawdown that that stock is in your fashion guy. Remember that brand? Oh, yeah. With the brown scarves and such, right? With like the brown plaid. It used to be a very, very popular, super high-end luxury brand.
19:18And it's like a 50%, 60 % trend. I don't know what happened to it. But it just got me to thinking about like, man, brands are – it's a fickle thing. Like as strong as some brands are globally dominant, like nothing's permanent. Yeah. National Beverage Corp, ticker Fizz, F-I-Z-Z. Oh. And is that the – oh, yeah, the Fizz. I remember people tweeting about that. Whoa, they own Faygo? That's a Midwest staple right there. What's Faygo? Faygo is a pop brand that never really took off. How do you spell it? F-A-Y-G-O, like rock and rye. That was a great... If you want to have a nice soda pop. I feel like it's a Midwest thing.
19:56I didn't even know it existed still. This looks like... You ever see the brand Tab? My first grade teacher used to drink that all the time. You know the greatest... One of the greatest pops growing up? Remember Tahitian Treat? No. It was like a red... With palm trees on. Oh, I used to love Tahitian Treat. My favorite throwback soda. Hold on, I'm Googling this. Tahitian Treat. My favorite throwback soda is Cherry 7-Up. Okay, that's not bad. Tahitian Treat. What the? No, I've never seen this. This looks like something you get to be good. I can't imagine how much sugar was in that thing. Yeah. I think we went far off track here.
20:36All right, so anyway, so getting back to recessions. I don't know how we got to where I was, but getting back to recessions. It's over. Mission accomplished. Yes. I'm not saying that they need to go from five and a quarter down to three, but start the process. Yeah, I agree. Let's do it. Rip the bandaid off. I mean, at this point, imagine just remaining too tight for too long and creating a recession. If they fumble the ball on the goal line, yes. Just come on. I think that seems like a bigger risk to me. Ned Davis research has net worth to personal disposable income, the ratio. And this looks like a chart of Apple's P.E.
21:15ratio, I guess. So they say the value of equities in household real estate have substantially contributed to the surge of net worth, obviously, which stands at a remarkable 6.7 times disposable income. And look at how much lower it was in the 70s, 80s, 90s, 60s as well. It's so far off the chart now how much wealthier people are. And I've never been a big believer in the wealth effect, but this is unlike anything we've ever seen before. So how does this change people's behavior? Or does it? It has to. Yeah, Josh and I have been talking about this a lot. It's sort of like a circular argument. I think people are more driven by their income than by their net worth.
22:02That I agree with. But your net worth would be at an all-time high in a good economy when your income is also doing well. How about this? There will be, we've already talked about stats about baby boomers, more baby boomers retiring than you'd expect from the trend. There's going to be way more baby boomers retiring in the years ahead than otherwise would have happened because they look at their bottom line and they say, really, I'm going to wait it out three more years? I'm already, I've got enough money. I'm fine. Yeah, that's for sure. Look at this next chart. I only included this. It's showing a household net worth by different generation.
22:34I know we've spoken a lot about this, but they slipped a generation in here that I've never heard of before. It's millennial, Gen X, boomers, and then traditionalist. Do they just make up a... I thought they called that a silent generation above the baby boomers. I've heard of silent. That's pre-boomers, right? Yeah. What is traditionalist? Is that the same thing? It sounds like some sort of cult that they made up on a TV show. Nope, never heard of it. Never heard of it. So that money goes to the baby boomers, which eventually goes to millennials. Yeah. Vlad Tenev from Robinhood tweeted that they surpassed$20 billion in overnight trading volume since launching their 24-hour market last year.
23:16How's Robinhood doing? I feel like you were dipping your toes in the water there for a while. I wish. Okay, so this is like a$10 stock forever, it seems, or sub-10, and now it's above$20. So it has done pretty well the last couple of years. Yeah. I mean, a lot of that is probably the— And still in a huge drawdown from the IPO price and from the initial spike. But yeah, so that's a stock that's come back. People just love betting and gambling. And I'll skip ahead to that baseball gambling story. Ben, you're going to love this. All right. Were we talking before we started about your Little League coaching this afternoon?
23:50No, I'm not coaching. I know nothing about baseball. But my son - Let's be honest. Let's be honest. You don't need to know anything to coach seven-year-olds. this is yeah this is true although the guys who coach my son are very serious they're like sons of coaches so they're like no put your back foot this way and that's stuff that i wouldn't know about but he's playing in the first and second grade championship game today so big game in our household i didn't i didn't even before the season started i had no idea there was even playoffs and we're like yes season's done and like nope three more playoff games so good luck we're in the championship thank you all right my friends sent this to me i don't know if this is real or not.
24:25It looks like it's on Reddit. Betting on my kids a Little League baseball games question mark is the subject. So for any of you who have kids that play Little League baseball games, you're aware of how mind-numbingly exhausting these games can be. It's so difficult watching from the stands as little Timmy pitches his 11th straight four-pitch walk in a row. That being said, me and a couple of the other dads decided it would make the games more fun if we had some action on them. Pretty standard bets to start. Who wins the game? Number of strikeouts? How many errors Tyler will have within the first three innings a catcher, etc.
24:54Lo and behold, the ideas really started taking off. Every game I go to now is spent collecting cash and tracking bets. I'm sure this is fake, but it's still funny. The wise would kill these guys. I hardly have time to watch. Another problem is that I've stopped caring about my own child's performance. Hell, half the time I'm actively rooting against him. Anyways, I'm wondering if anyone has suggestions on easier ways to track the bets. Perhaps a site that will do it for me. I would say that what I'm doing is a little immoral, but with playoffs coming up, the amount of money to be made is huge.
Read the full transcript
25:23Any advice is appreciated. It is pretty funny. And this would be the, it would be impossible for the little kids to throw these kind of things because they're not smart enough to do that. But. Any chance this is real? Probably. Again, some of the other parents would shut it down. But if it was real, it's, that's pretty good. Yeah. Well, but he's not wrong. Baseball is sort of boring. In fact, it's incredibly boring. Who's kidding here? Yes. Somehow it's my son's favorite sport. But it's kind of fun to, but ours has a good, they have like a set amount of time. Like this, the games have to be done within an hour or they're done.
25:56So that I like. An hour, that's phenomenal. I'm a little concerned about if he gets older and keeps wanting to play, the double headers and such. That'll be tough to stomach, but this is what we do. All right, I want to talk about AI. So I just think it's funny how quickly the narratives shift. And this is just something that happens in society in general, in large, I guess. But for a while it was, geez, these chat GPT came out, Google is done. Google is, they're finished. They're behind the eight ball. Did you see this product they released? It stinks. And then I was like, whoa, actually Google's okay.
26:31They've got an AI strategy. And Apple, Apple is done. They have no AI strategy. They're amateurs. And it's kind of funny because last week, Apple had a huge pop. And some people were claiming that Ben Thompson was the reason. He wrote a piece that's for Tetri that was saying Apple intelligence is, he gave it very positive glowing reviews and like saying this could be very good for them. And his point was, in his article, I don't know if you read this, but he said, when you watch the movie Her, which is always my favorite AI example, like that's all I want from AI, give me the assistant in my ear.
27:05He's saying, even in a movie like that, that's trying to look at the future and think about what this could be someday, you needed hardware to actually interact with the AI. And he's like, if Apple is the way that that hardware is interacted through, they have to be a winner. If you're using your AirPods and your iPhone to interact with the AI, Apple just has to come out of this okay, at least, right? That was his whole point. And apparently right after his column came out, that's when the stock took off. Ben Thompson added$79 billion to Apple's market cap in 20 minutes. Right? But I was thinking a couple of weeks ago, I said, you know, what are the best AI hedges for the boom busts?
27:43And you said, oh, that's crazy. We can't think that far ahead yet. But isn't it just with these bigger companies getting so much bigger, isn't the simple answer just small caps, mid caps, value, quality, dividends, international stocks, whatever, anything but the NASDAQ 100 heavy concentration? Isn't it just anything that breaks the market cap, that's your AI hedge? Because these bigger companies are obviously the ones that are going to, at least for now, be the beneficiaries. is? Yeah, I've started to hear anecdotes. People that should not be asking about NVIDIA asking about NVIDIA. Right. You know?
28:19Yes, I hear a lot of that too. And the reason why those anecdotes, you know, whatever, we all know what they are. But at some point, like, really and truly, who's left to buy? Right. You know, when they start coming from people, you're like, oh, if that person has heard about it, Yes, I agree. There's rumblings of that. I don't like to make investment decisions on that, but it's something. It's not nothing. All right. But I have a question for you. With all of the money that's coming into crypto in terms of the flows. And by the way, we plug, we did a podcast with the Bankless guys that we released on YouTube on Saturday.
29:04I think it's also on our feed, but it's on YouTube as well if you want to check it out. It was a really fun conversation. That was a more fun conversation than I thought. But it was podcast versus podcast, which was fun. It was good. With all the money that's come into the ETF and everything else like that, why hasn't the price of the coins done better? And it's an answer. It's a question that I don't know enough to have an intelligent answer for. Because you would think with all this buying pressure, right? Why isn't the price doing better? Right. So we had the run-up. And then it's kind of slowed from there and just kind of treaded water.
29:38but not any further, even though more money is coming in. So Jim Bianco tweeted something from JP Morgan. JP Morgan is basically saying that a lot of the money that's come into the space is a rotation from existing digital wallets on exchanges. So it's saying that it's not necessarily new money coming in. It's left pocket, right pocket type of situation. So people would say, why would I have my own cold storage thing if I can just put it in ETF? I guess, yeah. OK, I can see someone actually emailed us and asked, hey, I'm thinking about buying Bitcoin for the first time. What do you think about me buying it on an exchange versus buying it and holding it myself or buying the ETF?
30:21And to me, it's a no brainer answer. You buy the ETF through a financial intermediary and let them worry about the risk of holding it. Yeah. Right. The only thing that I would say to that is if Bitcoin crashes over the weekend and you want to add to it, you can't do that to an ETF. True. So, yeah. Do you think Robinhood would not want to add ETF overnight trading then because you can buy Bitcoin straight through Robinhood? I don't know if they do ETF overnight trading for crypto. I just don't know. Maybe they do. Yeah, they probably should. All right. Hey-o. Heyo. Latest. Do you get perturbed if someone doesn't say God bless you after you sneeze?
31:11Oh, that's an interesting question. God bless you etiquette. Well, all right. If somebody sneezes once, God bless you. They sneeze again, 50-50. The third time, you're out. You only say God bless you twice. I'd say once. More than that, it's overkill. You can't say God bless you twice. Is it annoying if the person says God bless you every single time? If you're in a sneezing fit, it's like, all right, relax with the God bless yous. Thank you. Yeah, you're trying too hard. Close your eyes, exhale, feel your body relax, and let go of whatever you're carrying today. Well, I'm letting go of the worry that I wouldn't get my new contacts in time for this class.
31:49I got them delivered free from 1-800-CONTACTS. Oh my gosh, they're so fast. And breathe. Oh, sorry. I almost couldn't breathe when I saw the discount they gave me on my first order. Oh, sorry. Namaste. Visit 1-800-CONTACTS.com today to save on your first order. 1-800-CONTACTS. At Capella University, learning online doesn't mean learning alone. You'll get support from people who care about your success. Like your enrollment specialist, who gets to know you and the goals you'd like to achieve. You'll also get a designated academic coach who's with you throughout your entire program. Plus, career coaches are available to help you navigate your professional goals.
32:31A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella.edu. All right. Latest Redfin report shows that the median house was up 4.4. By the way, speaking of this, can I just say now is maybe a good time to read this email that we got about Ben. Oh. Awesome as always. One question. Is Ben the kindest and most gentle hater out there? Maybe. Think about it. It's like a sneak attack. One day you wake up and realize Ben hates almost everything about you, but he still seems super nice. So I'm like the player haters ball for Chappelle Show. I'd be like the nice one.
33:11Hating on people with kindness. You know, spoiler, that wasn't an email. It came from one of our employees.
33:21that's fair that came from Eric
33:27alright that's fair and in Ben's defense Eric drives a big car so Ben's Ben's kicked him a few times listen yes Eric lives in Texas he has to drive a truck that's like there's a contractually obligated so you had tilted him a little bit I don't hate truck people I hate the fact that they take up too much parking real estate It's really hard to park with all the trucks in the lots. All right. Home prices up 4.4 % year over year through June. Another record, obviously. And this stuff is seasonal. It usually goes up through the summer. Then it backtracks a little bit through seasonality. Is there anything?
34:08So they said prices are declining in a few places. Austin and Fort Worth and San Antonio and Portland. So a few places. But short of like the great financial crisis like situation or all the baby boomers dying off in the 2030s. Are there any realistic scenarios that would cause housing prices to fall on a meaningful basis right now? Because I can't think of any. Good podcast. What are you eating? Sorry. Listen, I sneezed twice and I grabbed the airborne just in case. Oh, okay. That's fair. It's probably seasonal allergies, but a little extra vitamin C never hurt anybody. All right. What if rates fall and there's an unlock of supply?
34:53Now, we know demand is what it is. It's always going to be there with the demographic situation. But is it possible that enough supplies unlock to push prices lower? I think that's probably being a little bit too cute, but possible. Yeah, I think it would be an unlock of demand too. I think that's the problem. Is falling rates would unlock a lot of demand as well. But demand hasn't gone anywhere. Unless you say that people have stopped shopping because there is no supply. That and people who live in a house right now would say, I don't want to move somewhere and pay a 7 % mortgage rate. But if it gets to 5%, then you go, eh.
35:26No, I'm saying if rates fell. Yeah, but I'm saying in that scenario, you'd be wanting more people who'd want to buy. I understand. But I'm saying it's not impossible to see rates fall and prices fall. It's not impossible. It's pretty hard. I think it'd be pretty hard.
35:43Plus 460? I just don't see it. Justin Fox created this report that shows Americans are still adventurous. They just hate moving. And he shows the percentage of Americans who move each year keeps falling, with the lowest on record 7.8 % of U.S. residents reporting to the Census Bureau in the spring 2023. They lived in a different place than they had a year earlier. This was in the 20 % range or so from the late 40s through the early 1980s, and has slowly declined ever since. Yeah, moving stinks. Thanks. But also, it's not just, houses are also getting better. We've spoken about this a million times.
36:18Starter homes are just not really a thing anymore. I think that's part of it. Do you also think that this could help explain the further travel boom happening? Like, instead of moving somewhere and being more adventurous that way, I'm just going to travel more and get out, get away more. Too cute? Okay. When's the last time you moved? When did you move into your house? 2017. It's easy for me to know because my twins turned seven this year, and we moved when they were a month old to a bigger house. What would have to happen for you to move right now? Something drastic. Very drastic. As far as I'm concerned, we'll be in the house until at least the kids are all out of high school.
36:59So I wish I bought a home on the water because when I moved, I didn't know that I would be a water guy. But guess what? I'm not moving. Even if rates were to fall, I'm still not moving. It's too much. You're close enough to the water as it is, right? Yeah. Nice to have that view. Nice what? Be nice to have that view, obviously. But you're close still. Yeah, moving stinks. Huge pain in the butt. I agree. Okay, some sad news. Jonathan Clements, who writes for The Humble Dollar, also was at the Wall Street Journal forever, has written a number of books, pen to piece this weekend, And basically saying, I didn't feel so great.
37:40I went to the doctor. They told me I have lung cancer and maybe 12 months to live. And credit to him for writing this and saying, like, don't feel sorry for me. I, you know, I'm not maybe at peace with it. And he says, listen, I'm a healthy guy. I haven't smoked since 1987 or something. It's a thing that happens. And he's 61 years old. probably one of the most sober personal finance writers that there is. And I think the biggest compliment I could give him is that there's a lot of times that he writes stuff where I'd go, oh, geez, I wish I would have thought of that. I wish I would have written that.
38:14And just obviously very sad. And I traded some emails with him, and he seems to be in good spirits about it. And he's like, I don't want people to feel sorry for me. I'm just, I'm going to, you know, it is what it is kind of thing. I'm not going to feel sorry for myself. but I think this is hearing stories like this and, and dealing with stuff with this with friends or family members where this stuff happens. I feel like I'm hearing more and more of this with, with people where you just never know. And I think this is probably one of my biggest personal finance shifts in recent years is I'm not just going to save everything.
38:45I am like, if it's coming down to between like, should we spend this? Should we not? It's almost always for me going to be, yes, I'm going to spend it and enjoy it now. And I look back, 2021 to me was like a boom time for investing and saving. And I always chart my how much I save each year, you know, and I have kind of targets. Of course you do. And I feel like I got caught up a little bit in like, geez, everyone is investing in everything. And that year especially. And I feel like you and I together did some investments. And I look back and that was like the year that I saved and invested the most money.
39:20And part of that was probably pandemic related and pent up whatever. But now I look back and I think like, I don't know. Obviously, I'm going to continue to save up to a certain point. But after a certain level, I don't think it's worth it to continue saving anymore. And just to have that money in the bank, I don't see the point of it anymore. That's the stage of life I'm in. Yeah, I completely agree. I am. Yeah, I completely agree. So today actually marks the 13th anniversary of my mother's death. And that changed my life in many ways. One of the biggest ones was just like the incredible reminder of how short life can be and how fragile it is.
40:08And, you know, it is cliche that tomorrow's not promised, but it's hard to live like that if you've never experienced like tragic loss. And so it is weird. For me, that's the worst thing that's ever happened to me. But in some ways, it's the best thing. And that might sound weird. I know Stephen Colbert did a bit about this, but it really is true that it has allowed me to just enjoy life to the fullest. And I don't really know what else to say. It's a powerful thing to think about. But to your immediate point, in terms of you having that shift, I think that for a lot of people that can't make that shift that are just natural warriors or whatever what would have to happen for somebody like that to change their mindset about money it's almost like I don't think anything could happen because often times it's like a byproduct of their childhood or something yeah the way you're brought up and personality I was like that too I was always a big saver and kids were the big change in my life that knocked me out of that a little bit like no like spend money on spending time and experiences with them and enjoy that now because it's not going to last forever that's the thing that like shook me out of it to be like no no you want to say yes to more things and it doesn't have to always be spending money it could be time but i'm definitely a spender i think that um i probably have a lot less money than i i should like net worth but i i just don't care as long as you're being like reasonable and responsible and not, there's obviously a balance you have to find.
41:46Not like, oh, I could die any day. So I'm just going to blow everything. Yeah. Right. Right. Like there's a balance, but I don't think over saving is healthy at all. Yeah. So I'm not having that. I just don't having that, like that certain level. Like if I had this much in my portfolio, then like that doesn't impress me at all anymore. Like, or it's not something I strive for to hit like a certain level. Yeah. No, I'm all about spending, spend, spend, spend, enjoy your life. Enjoy your life. Anyway, check out the piece on a humble dollar, it's really well written for a difficult situation and thoughts in person, Jonathan.
42:18He's a really good guy. I've traded emails with him over the years. He's always been very kind and yeah, very nice guy. Yes. Yeah. Really sad news. Sam Rowe tweeted a chart from Bank of America. The 50 richest people in the world owned wealth equal to the poorest 50 % of the U S and this is at the root of so much negativity that we see everywhere. And, uh, how many of those people do you think are just like rich hedge fund people that no one even knows? Like, cause a lot of the rich people, you know, they are this list. Yeah. Elon Musk and Warren Buffett. People know all of these people, all of these people, you know who they are.
42:56Okay. So I mean, for the most part, that makes sense. Um, but I think this is just another thing that social media. has amplified and not for the better because a lot of these rich people, they didn't used to have a microphone. Like we didn't know all of their inner monologue. And now - Yeah, the Rockefeller back then, no one really had any idea how much richer these people were than them. Yeah. And now they're in your face. And I'm not just talking about Instagram, but like their thoughts about everything. Yeah. And but a lot of the negativity just stems from shit like this. OK, yeah, that is a kind of a depressing chart when you look at it like that.
43:38Yeah, the top 50 richest people in the world own wealth equal to the poorest 50 % of the US. So we've talked about the insurance crisis a lot lately. The Wall Street Journal had one out today, I believe, on insurance costs for condos. And they give some examples. They say board members of this Highland Park Community Association braced for rising insurance costs last year. They were shocked to receive a quote for over$170 ,000, which is more than four times what they paid in 2022. They say a lot of 12 issuers declined to even offer quotes because wildfire risk in California. This other place in Colorado said their policy went from$110 ,000 to$960 ,000.
44:15And they basically have to go to all these people that live in the condos and be like, listen, here's a one-time assessment or your HOA feature going way up. I guess this is the downside of a condo. Having a condo has to be great in a lot of ways because you just pay some money and people take care of everything. right? The common areas and the landscaping and the snowplow or whatever, if you're in that kind of area. But when it comes to this kind of thing, you're screwed, right? There's nothing you can do besides move. We talked about the cost of owning a home last week. I feel like some of these association fees for a condo or a shared space, that's even worse when you actually pool all together, right?
44:58Yeah, rough. Yeah, I'd be nervous if I was in one of those places in like California or Florida, I guess that those costs are just going to continue to jump. What's this FBI think? Did I put that there? Did you? You did. But I think it ties into last week when I said that crime decreases during bull markets. Oh, yeah, you did. Yeah. So what's from the hit man? So the FBI just that's right. That's why I put it here. The FBI just announced that crime is plummeted the first quarter of 2024. This is from Kyle Griffin tweeted this. Murder decreased by 26%, rape by 26%, robbery by 18%. All right, that's good news, obviously.
45:37Right, so the economy does well. Crime goes down. That is, yeah. That makes sense. We just freakonomicsed that thing, didn't we? We did. You had an experience in the gym? Okay, so last week I was in the gym. I get out of the shower. I get ready to clean out. I'm a head down in the gym guy. Earbuds in. I work out. I don't really know anyone in there. I don't talk to anyone. I did have one animal spirits listener. Do you shower at the gym? Tend to shower at the gym usually. I did have one experience with an animal spirits listener there. Said, hey, I'm listening to you right now. Yeah, thanks, man.
46:11But there was a guy in the locker room. And you know how you get on a plane sometimes and you just know like, oh, no, this person's going to want to talk the whole plane ride. You just know those people. So this guy comes in and we're the only two in the locker room. And I swear, it felt like you had paid this guy to, like, go have an uncomfortable small talk conversation with Ben for 10 minutes. He walks in and he goes, hey, man, how's the workout? And I said, and I go, not bad. And then he goes, what did you do today? And I said, I don't know, I just lifted some weights for cardio. Trying my hardest not to have this conversation.
46:48He goes, so, and I'm sitting there in my towel, like, trying to get dressed. and this guy is just you know big smile he's a young guy just he does this for a living it feels like small talk and he goes so do you find that you feel better after you work out and i'm like is this guy doing a podcast interview with me right now i don't and and uh proceeded to ask these kind of questions you know i was listening to a podcast the other day and i'm like i gotta i gotta get out of this like and so i was nice to the guy in cordial but this is a guy who just loves small talk. How did it end? How did it end?
47:20I'd finally, I got dressed very quickly and, uh, have a good one, man. One of those, but, but this, this guy did remind me though. So I, there was a smart list podcast with Arnold Schwarzenegger a couple months ago. And he said, when he goes to the gym, he rides his bike to the gold's gym every day. He said, it feels like his life is in black and white. And after he lifts weights, he comes out, everything's in color. And I feel like that is for me too. Whatever the endorphins or whatever you get from working out, like the good feelings, that's like meditation for me. Some people have to meditate to get their head in the right place.
47:54For me, it's working out. Like if I go a couple days without working out, I start getting ornery and annoyed. All right. Well, let me ask you this because I hate working out. I hate every minute of it. The good feelings that you get, does that happen during the workout or after? Because I get the after. I do feel better after. but I hate doing pushups. I hate all of it. I guess I don't mind it. But for me, it's just like, I have to get this done. And yes, and afterwards, it's like I feel better about myself. Okay, so it's an after thing. You don't actually enjoy the act. Yes. I don't enjoy drinking the beer.
48:29I enjoy the feeling the beer gives me after I drink it. How's that? Good analogy. That's what it is. But yeah, too much small talk. I couldn't handle it. Yeah, no, that's a nightmare. We got a million emails about the airline overbooking. We did. What's the summary? I can't really summarize it. I guess I can. Let me just read it. This person works for an airline. I work for an airline that explicitly does not overbook. However, it can happen if there are cancellations and needing to move customers to other flights. Our network model is a little different. But with the hub and spoke model of your American United Deltas, they have a couple of things at play.
49:03For one, they have a certain expectation of people who will late cancel or no show. which leads to selling 78 seats in Michael's 74-seat model. The other thing at play is that you have a lot of connecting customers, especially when it's not a hub-to-hub flight. So when Ben is scheduled to fly Delta from Grand Rapids to, what's DTW? Detroit. Then to Charleston, and something happens to either his flight to Detroit or flight from Detroit to Charleston. Delta can put him on a flight through Atlanta or LaGuardia to get him there more or less close to what he originally planned. That opens up a seat and removes it, blah, blah, blah.
49:34So he said, finally, there are always people who buy a ticket last minute and will pay top dollars. So the line essentially acts as a broker. Oh, airline brokers. Are there airline brokers? A broker scalper where the person who bought last minute will essentially pay for the voucher to have someone else taken off. Either way, there you go. So there's a bunch of factors that apply. Oh, interesting. So sometimes that voucher could be someone paying a higher value and then that payoff trickles down. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. All right, there you have it. Thank you for everybody that emailed us. All right, Ben.
50:05I saw an incredible almost accident the other day. Bad drivers really are something, aren't they? They're everywhere. And I feel like it's only getting worse. All right, so there's a, there's a, let me line this up for you. There's a main road called Merrick Road and there's a gas station right before the entrance, the on-ramp onto a highway. So you could leave the park, you could leave the lot and basically pull right onto the highway, okay? So Merrick Road, it's two lanes. So there's a person in the left lane who is about to move into the right lane to then get onto the highway. It's a very fairly common thing to do.
50:43You move the left lane to the right lane to get onto the highway. The person exiting the parking lot, I guess, I don't know if they didn't look at all or show that they were in the left lane and just said, oh, I can go. But like without having the wherewithal to think like – it probably was an out-of-towner. But either way, this is the amazing part. So she pulls out of the gas station. the person who was going from the left lane, moving to the right lane, like aggressively swerved back into the left lane, you know, and then like in front of her to like get onto the highway. So the person honked as was their right, like an aggressive honk, like what the fuck?
51:16Like, right? Yeah. So I'm passing her and I see this is her reaction. Complete bewilderment. She had no idea what just happened, that she almost just caused a massive accident. The look on her face was priceless. I'm surprised there aren't more accidents, to be honest. I see people staring at their phones in their car so often, just not paying attention. Or to your point, just being a bad driver and not understanding. It was unbelievable. She almost caused a massive accident. I get yelled at by my wife quite a bit. For doing what? I'm a honker. If someone does something bad and they cut you off or they do something, I don't mind giving a honk on the way by to be like, hey, just a reminder, you're a shitty driver.
51:58I don't mind reminding people that. My wife is always like, why you can't honk like that? And I don't mind giving people a little honk just to let them know like, hey, get better. Well, if I could brag, and I know a lot of people that are above average drivers, I'm not going to say that. I'm an above average courteous driver. I'm very courteous. So my biggest pet peeve is when you stop and let somebody in and they don't give you the wave. That drives me nuts. But if I'm driving like a single lane and I'm making a left turn, I will purposefully pull over to the left as far as I can so that the person behind me isn't stuck.
52:29That's the type of driver I am. So they can scoot by on the right. Exactly. Yes. I'm thinking about the person behind me in life and in lanes. All right, speaking about that, car dealership guy tweeted, slowest selling luxury brands right now. You want to guess without looking or are you already looking? Are we at a Porsche or what? No. Okay. But number one is not surprising because it's an interesting type of person. We're not here to judge people for what they drive. That's not what we do here. It's the Maserati. Does Eric have a Maserati too? I hope not. But let's be honest. The Maserati driver is a certain type of person.
53:01I'm not going to say what type of person. We'll just leave it at that. It's a certain type. Okay. I don't really have a Maserati guy in mind here. Do you think so? It's a guy or a gal. So number one is Maserati. Number two, Alfa Romeo. To be honest, I'm not quite familiar with the profile of the Alfa Romeo driver. Is that a luxury car? I guess so. It just says luxury brand. Jaguar. yeah Jaguars I feel like Jaguars days are numbered right? It had its time That feels like a very 90s car to me Jaguars were like, that's like when you made it in the 90s But this goes to the point I was making earlier about brands coming in and out I don't know how Jaguar rebounds from here When we were growing up, BMW that was the thing If you had a BMW, you made it I think it still is, no?
53:46A little bit It's still a top brand I feel like Range Rover has leapfrogged BMW. How about this? I feel like luxury has sort of flatted because growing up and I'm, you know, I was a kid, so I don't really remember, but I feel like, I feel like a luxury car was like more rare than they are today. I feel like everyone drives a luxury car these days. There are more luxury brands too. But it's much more common to see, and we spoke about this a lot, it's much more common to see somebody driving a$75 ,000 car today than it was when we were growing up. Yes. And a lot of those$75 ,000 cars are driving to soccer practice or something, you know, It's like the cars you drive with a family.
54:22Rounding out the list, number four, Infiniti, and number five, Lincoln. Lincoln is luxury brand? Just because McConaughey is the... I would have not put Lincoln in a luxury brand. No offense to Lincoln drivers. Lincolns are nice cars. All right. The Navigator? Jaguar and Maserati and Lincoln? Yeah. I wouldn't put those three in the same list. All right. Moving on to recommendations. Ben, Inside Out 2. I haven't seen it yet. Did you take the kids? No, but they can't wait. I think my wife is waiting for a rainy, rain out summer day, no camps, and then take them. But my kids are, they've watched the original one like four times in the last month to get prepared for this.
54:58All right. So it was$155 million at the box office just in the US and Canada. That's the biggest opening weekend of the year, even ahead of Dune 2. Very original concept too. I love the inside out. It's really good. Globally, it did$295 million. second biggest behind. It's the biggest opening weekend in history for an animated film. Wait, this doesn't make sense. It says globally, Inside Out 2's haul is the biggest film. Yeah, it says in the US, Canada, it's the second biggest. Oh, I'm sorry. Okay, there it is. You can read. Good job. Credit to you. All right, question though. Box Office Pro estimated that it was going to do between 85 and$115 million.
55:39I feel like these things are usually pretty good. How is it so far off? Wow. Analysts were way off on expectations there, huh? Way off. All right, Ben, here's a tweet. I thought Under Powers would be a jokey movie like Sharknado, but Twitter convinced me to give it a watch, and it's really quite good. The last 25 minutes were amazing. Who did this come from? Stephen King. Seriously? Wow, okay. Okay. How many times has he watched it this week? My son has great taste. We haven't watched it in a while. He watched it like back to back when he first saw it though. He's like, I'm going to run that back.
56:16Watch it again. Okay. So Ben, I'm catching up to Dark Matter. Where you at? I just watched the last episode and it's very good. And it's the rare one where I think the show is better than the book. And I really liked the book. I think they actually, they improved upon the book the way that they made it in the show. I can't wait for the finale. Very good. Oh, there's one episode left? Yep, I just watched the seventh one last night. Okay, so I'm on episode five. So I'll be caught up to you next week. There's one scene, there's not a spoiler at all, but there's one scene where one of the doors that they exit Chicago, the buildings are coming down.
56:54Yep. That felt like movie quality. Yes, I agree. Some of the worlds they go into, it's a very high quality show. Very high quality. As ambitious as it is. Also on Apple. Prison of the Imminocent, Jake Gyllenhaal. I didn't watch yet. Worth it? Oh, yeah. Oh, it's Jake. Come on. It's Jake. Okay. Are all the episodes out or are they slow? No. So, how do you feel about it? They release two episodes and then it's one a week. On the one hand, I do like having something that my wife and I could watch scheduled because we don't have anything to watch together. But on the other hand, just let me binge. Okay.
57:29So, you're always watching that one too? Yeah. Okay. So, I don't want to follow the hater tag that I've been given this episode, but I only have two shows that I couldn't get into on Netflix. One of them is another book, Three Body Problem. It's the same people who did Game of Thrones, apparently. I gave it two episodes and it just didn't do it. For some reason, it just didn't do it for me. Yeah, I feel like that sort of fizzled out. That was a dud. Just okay. Just okay. It wasn't bad, but it was just okay. And then the Shane Gillis show, The Tires. It wasn't great. It had like an office feel to it.
58:04Like the way that they shot it felt like The Office a little bit. It was okay. I just, it didn't, I feel like I'm quicker to just, eh, I'm out. Well, it didn't get better. It wasn't bad, but it certainly wasn't good. The reason why I stuck around, the episodes were like 24 minutes. Yeah, it was quick. But I mean, I don't know, maybe it made me appreciate what Seinfeld pulled off even more. Like just taking your comedy and trying to turn it into a show a little bit. And obviously you had David to help him, so maybe that's not fair. but it's hard to do because Shane Gillis is a funny guy obviously I went from no shows to four shows between Presumed Innocent Dark Matter Now the Boys is back and House of the Dragon is back which is good because basketball is ending did you watch House of the Dragon?
58:49Not yet we went through a little bit of a lull there but I will be getting into it good lord my weekends in the summer I'm not going to be consuming as much content anymore my weekends are in the summer I'm away from the screen I'm outside I'm taking advantage of Michigan weather when it's nice yeah smart same Check out the compound shirt, tropicalbros.com. You can also get an Animal Spirits one. Animal Spirits at thecompoundnews.com. We'll see you next time.
From the publisher
On episode 365 of Animal Spirits, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss: why it's finally time for the Fed to cut rates, when valuations will matter again, the best hedges against an AI boom-bust cycle, what would cause housing prices to fall, no one moves anymore, how tragedy can provide some perspective on your finances, bull markets lead to lower crime rates, bad drivers, and much more!
This episode is sponsored by YCharts and CME Group.
Get 20% off your initial YCharts Professional subscription when you start your free YCharts trial through Animal Spirits (new customers only). Sign up at: https://go.ycharts.com/animal-spirits
Access CME Group's valuable educational materials and trading tools and learn more about what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/animalspirits
Sign up for The Compound newsletter and never miss out: thecompoundnews.com/subscribe
Find complete show notes on our blogs...
Ben Carlson’s A Wealth of Common Sense
Michael Batnick’s The Irrelevant Investor
Check out the latest in financial blogger fashion at The Compound shop: https://www.idontshop.com
Feel free to shoot us an email at animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation.
Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information.
Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here:
https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices