The Holy Grail of Investing (EP.346)

24:06I just, I don't want this. It's too much, too much for me. I prefer to just. When you walk into a Burlington, you're walking into amazing prices and great gifts. That's main character energy. Because at Burlington, the holiday savings aren't the only things turning heads. Discover quality finds and perfect presents for everyone on your list, even those who are hard to shop for. Toys and jewelry to new beauty brands and styles, these gifts go seamlessly from our stores to under your tree. Seriously, with these savings, why shop anywhere else? Burlington Deals Brands Wow This episode is brought to you by State Farm.

24:47Listening to this podcast? Smart move. Being financially savvy? Smart move. Another smart move? Having State Farm help you create a competitive price when you choose to bundle home and auto. Bundling. Just another way to save with a personal price plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings, and eligibility vary by state. All right, so there was a CNBC story this week. Paul Tudor, this, I'm just going to headline. I read the story and I watched the CNBC interview actually, but Paul Tudor Jones says the US economy is on an unsustainable path, threatening markets.

25:26This is this week. So I looked, I'm like, I wonder what his takes have been in the past. Cause I don't remember him, you know, he's always been kind of a bearish guy, but this is from October 10th, 2022. Paul Tudor Jones believes we are in or near a recession and history shows stocks have more to fall. That was within two days of the low. So my point here, again, is not to dunk on someone who's a legendary investor, but just to show like, what makes you think that you can predict the macro and what it means for the markets if these legends can't do it? Because they've all shown that they're terrible at this.

25:54How many legendary investors have been dead wrong about the economy for years and years and years? Asterisk. Their comments in public always age poorly. It's entirely conceivable that two days after this interview, Paul Tudor Jones at the bottom said, you know what? Flipping it. Now I'm bullish. And he's not going back on TV and letting you know, hey, I changed my mind. I changed my mind. Maybe that's the point is that you can have all the thoughts you want about what's going to happen to the macro. Don't act on them when it comes to your portfolio. Well, everything that Paul Druckenmiller has said out loud to an audience over the last shit, almost 15 years.

26:34What did I say? Paul Druckenmiller. Close enough. All right. Well, you said Paul Tudor Jones. I'm looking at Paul on the screen. Listen, I'm getting old. Everything that Stan Druckenmiller has said on the screen for the last 15 years going on would indicate that he's a horrible investor and has lost a ton of money. Guess what? Right. I would bet that he's done just fine. Yes. And not just because he's starting with billions of dollars, but I'm sure that his actual portfolio has done much better than his comments would suggest. Would you agree with that? don't listen to people who pontificate about macro, then don't listen to yourself.

27:07My whole point is macro is hard. Even the Fed, so this is from Bespoke. The gray lines are where the Fed futures market expects the fund rates to be. And this is the actual Fed fund. Have you seen this one? Where it shows like, here's what people expect. Here's what actually happened. And the expectations are always completely off what actually happens. And then they try to play catch up. No one, even the Fed can't predict what their own actions are going to be. What makes you think you can? That's my whole point, is just macro is hard. Macro is very hard. All right, where are we going next? Oh, survey of the week.

27:40Not really a survey, but I'll call it a survey. Gunjan from the Wall Street Journal, Gunjan Banerjee, who was on TCAF, she's tweeted, one measure of sentiment among individual investors. The Yale School of Management one-year confidence index is at the highest level since 2007. Holy smokes. That is right. I think that's the Robert Schiller one where he asks, do you think stocks will be higher or lower one year from now? I'm pretty sure that's it. Hell of a chart. Really just unbelievable. If you had to summarize the state, the psychological state of the American investor today, how would you describe their mood?

28:21Chaotic? Do you think it jives with this chart? I don't know. I think everyone's, I think sentiment is so all over the place and opinions and everything. Do you think it really feels like we're at all-time highs in the stock market? Because I don't feel like it – there's no feeling of euphoria. I can't define that, but it doesn't feel like it, does it? No. Yeah, I don't know. Okay, back to the Fed stuff. What if it's good news if the Fed doesn't have to cut rates for a while? Because the economy is so strong. We had a blowout jobs report again on Friday. the Atlanta Fed says now we're looking at 4.2 % first quarter GDP growth.

29:01They could be wrong, but it's going up. Like, doesn't, wasn't it going to be a good thing if it's not because they're worried about inflation, but because the economy is staying stronger, that the Fed puts off rate cuts for a little bit? I think that's a good thing, correct? And what if, I don't know, this whole thing, the economic growth continues to be strong, the labor market continues to be strong. I think we had 3 million jobs last year. and that's not like jobs that were lost during the pandemic. We already long ago made up all those jobs. I think besides savings accounts and borrowing rates in the housing market, what if monetary policy just has no impact on the economy?

29:35Well, that's ridiculous. Very little. How could you say monetary policy has a huge impact on the economy if economic growth continues to be strong and the labor market continues to be strong after they went from 0 % to 5 %? I didn't say that. I said that your assertion that it has no impact is ridiculous. Well, yes, I'm being extreme, but it has a much smaller impact than anyone thought possible. In this particular day and age, given where we are today, how about this? Absent the pandemic, if there was a bit of inflation and the Fed jacked rates up to five and a quarter, it would have had an impact on the economy.

30:11Maybe. This is interesting. Well, let me ask you this. Let me ask you this. Remember when you were - I'm saying this is, I'm surprised by this too. I never would have believed this would have happened. Remember when you were a Fed apologist? Let me ask you this. If you're Jerome Powell, what do you do in March? There's a bomb on a bus. If the economy reigns strong, I don't mind him waiting. What's it going to matter? No, no, no. I'm asking you, Jerome Powell. What do you do in March? If the economy is so strong, I don't cut and then I cut in a couple. I mean, does it really matter the 25 basis points?

30:45That's what I say. answer the question i'd probably rip the band-aid off and do it just to say just to show people hey we're going to cut rates you can stop being so worried but does it really matter if he does it in march or may or june probably not as far as i'm concerned all right uh matthew klein at the overshoot wages are growing faster than we thought so he says zooming out our core wage growth is now running slightly faster than it was in the late 90s and in 2005 to 2007 put another way wages are rising two to three percentage points faster than pre-pandemic period. And he's saying we're at, you know, 5 % wage growth, and it doesn't have to be inflationary, because he's saying if workers save more, they would partly break the link between wages and spending, which would relieve some of the pressure on businesses to ration finance quantities via higher prices.

31:31This is like the Goldilocks potential situation where wages are going five, inflation is three. But if people don't spend more and they're saving some, that's actually a, we could thread the needle. I don't know if that can happen. Too many Fs. Too many Fs, I'm sorry. Call me crazy. This is, so economists said - You're crazy. The economist says you're crazy. Your pay is still going up too fast. Why the last part of inflation may be the hardest. I don't know. Call me crazy, but I think higher wages are a good thing. But look at this nominal wage growth since 1999 for G10 countries. Highest by far that it's been.

32:03And this is looking at the globe, not just the US, but they're saying, listen, to get inflation under control, wage growth has to break down, meaning maybe rates have to stay higher for longer. But call me crazy. I think people making more money is a good thing. All right. You said call me crazy three times. You're crazy. I am crazy. Mike Zaccardi, if we do have this slowdown that people have been predicting forever, households are still in good shape. Household debt outstanding as a percentage of GDP down over the past decade and still looks like it's falling. This is when we use the denominator.

32:39I looked at New York Fed had their report out today. Hang on. Here's my take on this chart. So you're showing that household debt as a percentage of GDP is way, way, way, lower than it was during the GFC. We've had it as Bill, as Ray Daly called it, the beautiful deleveraging. And this chart would indicate there's nothing to worry about. Now steady since the 2010s. To me, this chart doesn't mean that something bad can't happen. It's just that if you're looking for like a boogeyman, everybody's over-levered. They're just not. Would you, is that fair? Yes. Yeah, you're right. It doesn't save us from anything, but households are in pretty good shape.

33:19Look at the, from the New York Fed, the new foreclosures by age. The housing market boom and 3 % mortgages essentially took foreclosures off the map. They're so small compared to history. They barely even show up. Same thing with bankruptcies. Hold on. Compared to the GFC, I feel like this is like a pandemic-looking chart. This goes back to 2003. If you were to start this in 2018, right, there's no context here. Well, look, the context is, look at 2003 to 2007 before the great financial crisis. True, true, true. It was four times higher than it is today. Same thing. Look at bankruptcies. If you're a bankruptcy lawyer, you've got nothing to do today.

33:58It's the lowest it's been this century. It's just, it's way, way lower than history. Yeah. All right, we heard from an economics professor. He wants to answer a question about 2 % inflation. He says, we know high inflation is bad. However, deflation is bad too. Causes the real value of debt to rise. Unemployment usually rises because employees cut wages or resist wage cuts, firm revenues fall, et cetera. What history has shown works best is low, stable, predictable inflation. There's no theoretical reason why 2 % is a magical number. The 2 % number is more of a consensus. It's very low, but not so close that the Fed doesn't have to prevent deflation if inflation starts to fall.

34:32You know, somebody else emailed us from Australia. I think the 2 % number came from Australia or New Zealand. I can't remember. New Zealand, yes. It was more or less a made-up number. But New Zealand, some economists there. All right, here's an interesting email. I love Tim Ferriss' podcast and have been a long-time listener. I found it interesting that for a guy with such a broad range of interests and also given his venture capital background, he didn't know what the FOMC is. So this is the conversation. You know what? I'll play Matt Mullenweg. Ben, you play Tim Ferriss. Deal? Okay. Yeah, it was an interesting format.

35:04So have you heard of the FOMC, the Federal Open Market Committee? No. So that is the committee of bank presidents and Federal Reserve leaders that come together to determine what's called the Fed funds rate, which basically trickles down to be the interest rates. Man, I bet a lot of people would like to be in that room, wouldn't they? Yeah. It's a pretty cool meeting. It must be. And they're basically— That's like the Illuminati. Okay. So I don't think you need to dunk on Tim Ferriss here. I'm not dunking on. No, no, no, no, no. That's not the intention. The intention is this guy makes a good point.

35:39We take for granted that people know this stuff and they don't. That's my point. I'm not, this is not a dig at Tim Ferriss at all. No, I think the, but I also think, I think that you can be a very smart person and not know. There's people we talk to that are experts in certain fields that know so much more than we do. And we cover a lot of areas, But I think that that's not that surprising if you're an expert, even in a handful of areas like Tim Ferriss is, that you just don't pay attention to something like this. Right. This is the could. How many people on the street could pick out Jerome Powell?

36:09One out of 20, maybe? Yeah. Why would Tim Ferriss be watching CNBC at 2 o 'clock on a Tuesday or whatever day of the week they make interest rate decisions? Why would he? Do you think Tim Ferriss helped Mark Wahlberg plan his morning routine? absolutely that's what i'd like to know okay you know speaking of morning routine i said this to josh i don't know if we've spoken about this i uh when we were at this when we went to the stock exchange i couldn't sleep that night i stayed in the city because we had to be in exchange early and i was up to like 1 30 i was annoyed and so i woke up the next morning i tried to think it's hard to sleep in hotels yeah yeah uh i tried to take a cold shower and i hated it i think this This is the dumbest thing ever.

36:55I tried to wake up. But I did try. I did try to take a cold bath. I'm not going to call it a cold plunge. It was a cold bath. You ever do one of those? I'm out. I've heard that they're good for your muscles and joints, and it shocks the system. No way. I love a hot shower. You could not pay me to do a cold plunge. Sorry. I took a cold bath with the Vision Prozone. How about that? You beat me to it. No, but also, but hold on. But just my quick review, your body goes numb. I lost feeling in my fingers and my hands, my toes. Not fun. I think people just want to feel something maybe. I don't know.

37:39I don't know. I'm sure there's the reports that show and research that shows how good it is for you. I love a hot shower. There's no way you could talk me into a cold. All right. So first time and last time, me talking about the cold plunge, I promise. Okay. You're going to get one of them, aren't you? All right. New labor market take. If companies can't raise prices to improve margins, they're going to have to fire people. You probably heard people say this recently. And there's all these headlines, and it seems like they have been increasing in January, right? So I did U.S. non-farm layoffs and discharges from Y-charts.

38:10What I did is I took April and March of 2020 off of there because there was such a massive number. Wait, what's a discharge? I guess that's what they say to people for a nice terminology for getting fired. I don't know. But it says layoffs and discharges. Like, is there a difference between being laid off or discharged? That's a good question. It's economic speak. I don't know. The average since 2000, so I took away March and April, again, because that makes the graph just look, it's unusable, of 2020. 1.8 million per month. There's 1.8 people, a million laid off or discharged per month since the start of the century.

38:46In December, it was 1.6 million. And maybe it'll be a little higher in January, So we're basically below average still, right there. It's nothing out of the ordinary. It's funny. Doesn't that seem like a lot of people? Well, it does seem like a lot of people, but I would say we over-index for the brand names that are laying people off. Like Snap just did another round. It's name brands, and so we think that that is more representative of the overall economy than it really is. I'm just saying there's way more room to run before things get bad, and the US economy is very dynamic and this kind of thing just happens and I think we just hear about layoffs more now than we did in the past.

39:27All right, Ben, you poo-pooed the crypto ETF. You thought it was underwhelming in terms of the flows. Apparently, I've been doing a lot of poo-pooing lately. Yeah, yeah. Ben poo-poo Carlson. My daughter brought home a piece of art the other day from school, art with quotes around it and it was like a picture of a guy and she said, this is, Bob. So it was a guy she made. And I look on the back and I said, what does it say in the back? And I look, all it says is I like poop. Wait, let me guess. Did she say the world's worst market timer? Yeah. Oh, that's true. But yeah, all it said was I like poop on the back.

40:02That's it. Thanks. Nice work. So Nicarasi, iShares Bitcoin Trust and FidelityWise Origin Bitcoin Fund. Now, number one and number two, in AUM, out of all ETFs launched since the beginning of 2023, That's over 600 ETFs. And it took them less than three weeks to do it. That's impressive in the world of ETFs. What other ETFs have been released since 2023 that we're going to bring in a ton of money? So I pulled the numbers up because I knew you were going to do this to me. Do what to you? I'm not doing anything. So the iShares has$2.8 billion. Fidelity has$2.5 billion. And Biddo has$1.8 billion. It's a lot of money, but I still think it's underwhelming relative to the hype these ETFs got.

40:49It is a lot of money relative to a bunch of stock market ETFs and alternative strategies and liquid alts. So what's the number where you would be impressed? Is 10 billion? Grayscale has 20 billion still. It had 30 going into it. And again, a lot of that was arbitrage money that got out. If this thing would have brought in$20 billion and matched Grayscale right away, I would, okay, wow. But I don't know,$7 billion? Relative to the hype, still seems low to me. Maybe my expectations are too high. I also think the hype is sort of a bit of a long game in this because the majority of flows are going to come from advisors, and they're probably not putting money in on day one.

41:28True. They might want to wait around a little bit and see. Yeah, that's fair. I would have thought of it more. Okay. I hope realtors banked some of their income in 2020 and 2021. This is from NAR. So this goes back to the 1980s. As the housing market corrected, there were fewer than three homes sold per NAR member in 2023, the lowest per capita since at least 1981. So this is houses sold per realtor and just crashed. Is this because so many realtors came to the market during the pandemic? I mean, it's been trending down for a while, but. It's that and there was just so few houses sold. that's just I mean if you're in that business that's a tough tough business right now brutal yeah right every time we every time we talk about real estate commissions somebody gets somebody emails us or a bunch of people email us saying how difficult it is to sell a house and it's not like they're raking in the money and okay but that's that's sort of erroneous to the fact that there are too many real estate agents yes because it's a it's a if you say If you say taking commissions from 5 % down to 3 % would wipe out the ability for 600 ,000 people to make a living, I'm sympathetic to that cause or that statement.

42:49However, I guess the point is there's 1.5 million members in the NAR. And maybe there's just way too many of them. Maybe there doesn't need to be 1.5 million of them. True. I think it's a good fallback plan for a lot of people to say, hey, I can do this on the nights and weekends if I want to as a part-time gig. and the people who are, I'd like to see the number of what the full-time number of realtors actually is because a lot of those people obviously aren't selling a lot of houses. And so back in the day before Zillow, when you really needed an agent to show you like what properties were even available, yeah, 5%, they earned it.

43:22It made a lot of sense. It's a different world. But you know where they're earning it today is they have a network of other realtors that they're talking to. And when you need to buy a house, they say, listen, I know someone else who's going to list, I will get into the house first and we can negotiate before it even goes on the market. That's how you make your money. Yeah, absolutely. The group has more than 1.5 million members and $119 million in cash with total assets of$1 billion. It spent$52 million in federal lobbying last year behind only the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. You know, I got to be honest.

43:55If you ask me, what does the U.S. Chamber of Commerce do? You know what my answer is? I don't know. I have no idea. Do they hand out pamphlets like the chamber of commerce at every town in America, small town in America? Do you know what they do? No idea. So the reason there are so many members then is because they have to pay to be a member and the listings. Yeah. And so they like to have this money. If they have a billion dollars in assets because they have a lot of fees coming in too from these people, they want to have more members. Anyway. So the gist of the article, which I guess we buried the lead here was like that there were allegations that they were colluding to keep commissions high.

44:32I don't know. We'll see. And this is not an attack on people that are trying to make a living selling houses. I know it's not easy. All right. This is something, Ben. I heard this. Meb Faber was talking to Jared Dillian, and they put this on my radar. There's a book coming out called The Holy Grail of Investing. The world's greatest investors reveal their ultimate strategies for financial freedom. This is a book by Tony Robbins, and I am not a Tony Robbins hater. That's not my deal. However, let me just read you the description. Now, holy grail, those are some big words, right? When you talk about holy grail of investing, I mean, you better be bringing it.

45:15So, okay, from Amazon, in the holy grail of investing, you'll discover how to take advantage of the trillions flowing into private equity by becoming an owner of the firms that actually manage the assets and share in the revenue they generate. How to take advantage of the two to three times higher returns of private credit as an alternative or complement to bonds. And then there's a bunch of other things. So CityWire did an article and they said, with Holy Grail, Robbins notably has a new writing partner. The book is co-authored by Christopher Zuck, the founder, chairman, and chief investment officer of Houston-based alternative asset manager, Kaz Investments.

45:49In 2021, a consortium of private investors, including Robbins, made a significant investment in Kaz, gaining a, quote, passive ownership interest in the company. Okay. Again, I'm not a hater of Tony Robbins, but if there ever was some sort of bell ringing to maybe, maybe, maybe just be aware. Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding, ding, ding. Whatever happened, do you remember when he wrote a book probably five to seven years ago about investing and his whole thing was the secret to investing is the all-weather fund from Bridgewater. Do you remember that? I do. I wonder what happened with that. Because I thought he had a fund for that too.

46:28Whatever happened to that? So that's a bit different because it was, but just, wow. The holy grail of investing is private equity and private credit. Here's the biggest red flag for me for this. How many of the world's greatest investors thrive in good times and bad? That's what regular - That's just, that's a lie. It's an untruth. Yes. Regular people see that and they go, oh, that is the holy grail. and that's the thing that is a flat-out lie. Let's just get this out of the way. There's no such thing in investing as a holy grail, okay? No. Anyway, definitely filing this one away for later. That's fair.

47:10All right, so Peloton, did they report earnings? Yes. Isn't that way it went down so much? I pulled the report up. Yeah, so I pulled the report up on quarter and I tell you what, my baseline is always every diet or exercise, new, whatever, shiny new toy in the, is always a fad. And I'm still surprised at how bad Peloton has done. So their, their stock is 98 % off the highs. They went from a$50,$50 billion market cap to 1.5 billion. Here's my take. And I think I heard you say this on the TCAF last week. Someone has to take this company over. I think is rarely a good investment thesis. It sounds like it's so obvious, but how often does that actually work out?

47:49And so I pulled up the thing. So while we here's, this is from their CEO. While we continue to outperform the connected fitness market, our biggest challenges continue to be growth at scale. Um, one initiative that hasn't worked out as our premium co-branded bike experiment with the university of Michigan, notwithstanding the football team success, winning the national championship. We sold substantially fewer bikes to alumni and boosters than we expected. This is their plan. This is it for growth at scale. Uh, so they have 3 million subscribers. It sounds like that's probably the ceiling. It's not going any higher.

48:18I just don't know. I still use the bike. I like it. I don't know if yours has turned into a coat rack. I used it today for the first, I used, I'm sorry, I used it, uh, two days ago for the first time in a year and a half. Okay. I still use it and like it, but I think they just don't call it a comeback, Ben. They pulled forward everything and they, like, this is the amount of people they have. That's all it's going to be. They're never going to be able to grow. I don't think. So, uh, I'm Pelotoning. I'm taking cold plunges. You know what else I bought? I haven't told you this. I'm a bit embarrassed, but I'll say it anyway, just between us.

48:51I saw this on Instagram. You know, the thing that you chew on to like make your jaw stronger to give you a better jawline. I did not know that was a thing. That's like the people who do the hand, like the hand one. The head grip. Yeah. Yes. So my biggest worry about Peloton is how are they going to continue to pay all of their instructors? Like, I feel like I'm going to turn my Peloton on and you're going to be instructing me one day. Right. I don't even use the instructors. I mean, I listen, I do it on mute. I watch TV. Okay. Really? So you don't do what they say, like turning the knob up and down and up out of your seat.

49:25I follow, I follow because I see the cadence and the resistance. I don't, I don't listen to them either. I watch TV movies. All right. There was an article in Bloomberg on doom spending. It's funny, Ben, because last week we had the title of our show is Gen Z is on fire. And then last week there was an article with the headline, Gen Z is splurging on luxury goods to soothe their economic despair. So about 27 % of Americans admit to, quote, doom spending to cope with concerns about the economy and foreign affairs. Give me a break. Young people are concerned about foreign affairs so they're buying expensive stuff.

50:04So this is people justifying their spending on expensive handbags and shoes and whatnot? I don't know. Is this really a story? Is this like really something that people are doing that's worthy of an article? I'm guessing you see that in the - Young people have it so bad that they're just saying, I'll buy a vacation. Guess what? There's no hope. Every young person in history - Guess what? I have no hope. 2009, I made$415. Of course, young people feel like they have no hope and they feel like everything is out of reach. That's what it is to be a young person. Yes. Every young person in history is doom spend under that definition.

50:42Yeah. All right. Give me a break. So my baseline for the internet is every viral video is a hoax or set up in 99 % of, and less proven otherwise, I just assume everything's fake. Okay? Like, why did this person have a camera right at this time? And most of the viral finance stuff is fake, too. So there was this New York Post article about one West Coast couple, each earning$100 ,000 a piece. And they said they're struggling in today's inflated economy. And they're ditching luxuries like pricey gym memberships and vacations to Europe and trips to local restaurants. And they show their budget. And it's their mortgages and their bills and their membership.

51:21And then it shows socializing. They only spend$105 a month. And their new plan for 2024, they're going to spend$0 socializing. Right? So these people are screwed. And if you add it all up, it's$55 ,000 in spending, but they're making$200 ,000 a year, which is$17 ,000 a month. And they're saying their total budget is$4 ,600. So even if you did 30 % taxes from this, we're missing$7 ,000 a month. And my point is they're either missing something here or they're lying to go viral or people just don't actually track their spending. can i say all the above it's got to be like how many people do you think actually track what they spend each month five percent maybe i do i'm running money i get an email tracking your spending like physically is is come on that's that's unrealistic any of these viral finance posts are are fake for the most part fair duncan's duncan need duncan's making jokes in the slack michael pull yourself up by the bootstraps batnik that's pretty good uh okay how much people have in savings this is from oh daily chart book which is a i look at it every day and they had this consumer snapshot 30 charts on the u.s consumer which i thought was very helpful but they have this one for morgan stanley uh this month 30 30 % of consumers indicated they do not have any savings.

52:5136 % have three-month or less in savings. 19 % has four to 12-month in savings. And 16 % has more than a year. I can't debunk any of this. It sounds right to me. One-third of people don't really have any savings to hold them over. The reason why I believe this data is because if you look over time, it's consistent, right? It ebbs and it flows, but it's consistent. It actually sounds right to me. So 16 % have more than a year. It's a small amount. It actually makes this... This jives with me. I think it makes sense. That's impressive. That's impressive. All right. This is a great email. Every once in a while, we get an email from a listener who takes something...

53:26Wait, let me ask you this. How much money in savings do you have? Mine would be... I have... Three months or so? I don't go very far out. I have...

53:41I have four to six, probably. Okay. I have other sources I would tap, so I don't like to keep... Not to brag. No, I'm just saying 12 months in savings I think is unrealistic for 90 % of people. It's too much money. Yes. It would take way too long to get there so it's hard. All right. Every once in a while we have a listener who emails something from like the last 12 months of our shows and pulls it all together and, you know, pulls something from here and this was a great one. Michael, I think it's time to spend a little of your savings between your uncomfortable couch, old Sony TV, broken fridge, and death Jeep.

54:13You have some spending to do. And then this person really gets you because at the end he says, what are your thoughts on Terrifier and the art of the clown? Which have to be horror movies, I guess. It's Art the Clown. Oh, Art the Clown. Sorry. Yeah, I'm not a big Terrifier guy. I mean, I get it. I saw the first one. It's just, it's not my particular cup of tea. Okay. Okay. So what would you like to spend on out of all these? You already bought the fridge, it sounds like. What a great email. So I'll give you some insight. This makes absolutely no sense. This is how I roll. I bought a new TV.

54:50So I took my TV. So I bought a 65-inch TV when I had that line in my TV. And I – all right, let me back up. I had an 82-inch or 80-something-inch TV downstairs that had a line on it. I replaced that with another same-size TV. I took the line TV and I put it upstairs in my bedroom because I thought I wouldn't be able to see the line because my bed is like 20 feet away from my wall, not to brag. But I do see the line. So I bought a new TV to take down that. And guess what? The new TV has been sitting in my closet for a year and a half. So I still have the line on the wall on my upstairs, which makes absolutely no sense.

55:34That's pretty impressive. That long, you won't cut wide because you can't hang it yourself? I don't know. I just, I've been busy. I've had one person on the other end of the TV to lift it up 48 inches. I haven't gotten around to it. So I took my Jeep in and they fixed it in a day, which was a joy. And I got it. I have a bone to pick. I have a bone to pick with Audi. Put a pin in Audi. My refrigerator. So I replaced my refrigerator. Tell me if this is consistent with how you and your wife shop. So Robin and I went to Best Buy and I asked the guy, I'm like, what are we? I've never bought a fridge before.

56:07Somebody said, how have you never bought a fridge? because every place that I either rented or bought had a fridge with. It came with a fridge. I never bought a fridge. So I went to Best Buy. We're looking around. I'm like, I don't know, Samsung, LG. I don't really have big preference for refrigerators. And I asked the guy who came over, said, you guys look like you need some help. I said, yeah, we do need some help. What do we - Oh, you're a sucker right away. I've never bought one before. I don't know which brand to get. You're a sucker. We didn't do any research? Okay, no, I'm not a research guy.

56:35Listen to what this guy said. Okay. Listen to what this guy said. I said, what are the differences between some of these? And his answer, the brand. And I said, oh, very helpful. So - You don't say. I swear, the brand. This guy knew nothing. I could have done his job. So we left. We went to PC Richards. Because everyone does research on the internet before they go buy one. They don't need to help you anymore. Not me. So we went to PC Richards, and I sat down on one of the reclining chairs. and I'm scrolling on my phone while Robin picks out a refrigerator for us. Okay. And let her do it. She goes, Michael.

57:14I said, yeah, I like that one too. I'm like, who cares? It's a refrigerator. It is. It's a fridge. They're all the same. Back to Audi. I am so royally screwed and there's, I have no get out of jail free card. I owe, so the car, thank God I got a warranty. I'm not a warranty buyer, but I got a warranty. And my, I had a broken transmission. You bought your car at a Cape ratio of 86. Yeah, that's exactly what happened. And I was a forced buyer because the scenario was either my payment goes from like$850 a month to$1 ,200, or I buy it and my payment goes down by$50. It was a no-brainer. So now my payment, whatever.

57:51So I bought the extended warranty. The transmission crapped out$11 ,000 on the warranty, thank God. Recently, something crapped out again. It's$7 ,000. And they have no loaners. What's the point of buying a luxury vehicle? There's no loaners. So now I have to pay Enterprise for – because Robin needs the car to go to work. So I have to pay the truck at Enterprise. Anyway, I owe$34 ,000 on the car. It's worth$18 ,000. And in 20 ,000 miles, the warranty will be kaput. There will be no more warranty. The coverage disappears at 100 ,000 miles. So I will be forced at 95 ,000 miles or so to take whatever loss exists.

58:30So I'm hoping it's like$10 ,000 or less. That's the Ron Burgundy. I'm not even mad. I'm impressed. Like, I don't even know what to say to this. Yeah, so I cannot drive that car past 100 ,000 miles because it's just too expensive to maintain. That's like Hall of Fame stuff for worst personal finance moves ever. But in hindsight, it wasn't a bad move. What was I supposed to do? The timing was bad. So I called out and I said, all right, listen, here's the deal. I'm going to buy it. Because when Robin told me that the engine light was on, I said, that's it. I'm getting a new car. I'm getting a new car.

59:01I don't care how much. I'm getting a new car. So they said, well, you are$60 ,000 on the run. I'm like, all right, fine. So what does that mean? What it means is you have to pay$5 ,000 and then your monthly payment will go up by$400 a month. So I'm like, okay, so what does that mean? It's like, okay, so it's$5 ,000 down and a new Q7 will be$1 ,600 a month. I'm like, what? So I said to Robin, nope, driving into the ground. You were stuck. That payment as well, yes. That makes sense to me. $1 ,600 a month? Stuck. It's what it is. So anyway, thank you for the email. Yeah. You're screwed. No big deal.

59:41All right. All right. Let's talk about, so last week, Netflix dropped some bombs. They announced like their upcoming slate for the year. Let's run through it real quick. Michael Shannon and Matthew McFadden. Thumbs up or thumbs down on all of these. And Matthew McFadden. Is that Tom? That's Tom Williams games? All right. Will star in Death by Lightning, the stranger than fiction story of the reluctant president James Garfield, and his admirer turned assassin Charles Gouteau. I am so in on that. I'm intrigued. Okay. Thumbs up for me. Eric stars Benedict Cumberbatch. Set in the 1980s, New York, Eric is an emotional thriller from Abby Morgan following the desperate search of a father when his nine-year-old son disappears one morning on the way to school.

1:00:28Thumbs up. kids disappearing is bad for me. I don't know. Give me back my son. Yeah, it's too, but could be okay. All right. Andrew Scott and Ripley. This is based on the talented Mr. Ripley. Who's Andrew Scott? I don't know. All right. Talented Mr. Ripley is a wonderful movie. I'm with you. I'm with you. All right. Mark Wahlberg and Halle Berry in The Union. That sounds like a straight to DVD movie right there. Say no more. A construction worker from Jersey is quickly thrust into the world of espionage when his high school, I don't even, I'm in. I'm so in. When his high school ex recruits him on a high stakes mission.

1:01:12All right, I'm obviously in for that. That's the one where the audience rating versus the critic rating is going to be the widest gap in history. Yeah. Okay, J-Lo is Atlas. A brilliant data analyst with a deep distrust of artificial intelligence joins a mission to capture a renegade robot with whom she shares a mysterious past. I'm in, of course. Okay, I had a take about my recommendations about movie stars who have jobs that do not, like you could never see the look of that person doing that. I'm sorry. J-Lo is a brilliant data analyst. Come on. Huh? No, I already told you. Hey, thank you. J-Lo is too, I'm sorry, Barry just tried to make it.

1:01:51What were you saying about J-Lo? I got a take, just keep going. All right. Beverly Hills Cop. I mean, obviously, right? No. You're not going to watch it? He ruined, I didn't, I never watched Coming to America 2. You can't remake something this. We're not saying. Top Gun Maverick is the only one they can do that with. We're not saying, I'm not saying that this is going to be good, but are you going to watch it? I don't know. I don't like how they remake classics like this. I don't like it. Is that Owen Wilson? Looks like him. You're not going to watch this? You really are a Midwestern grump. I didn't watch Coming to America 2.

1:02:22Well, that's a good decision. Okay, lastly, I know we're almost done. The new poster for Damsel starring Millie Bobby Brown, Angela Bassett, Robin Wright, and Nick Robinson. This is not a fairy tale. That's the headline. I don't know what this is, but I'm in for it. And then Cameron Diaz and Jamie Foxx starring Back in Action. Years after giving up life in the CIA to start a family, these former spies are dragged back into the world of espionage. A lot of espionage. Of course we're in. Are you in for this? It's probably going to be bad. I'm not going to lie. Okay. And then lastly, Squid Game Season 2.

1:02:57All right. That's a slate. And we haven't even discussed Ben Affleck's directing a movie with Matt Damon called Animals. Okay. So I'm hopeful Netflix is going to be saving the movie industry. That's what I said before. Ben, you have something you want to discuss? Oh. Watching another parent freak out on their child is both horrifying and I feel like I feel you. So I was, I'm coaching my son's basketball team now and we had pictures on Saturday and it's kind of hectic because you have to get there half hour before the game to take pictures and you're trying to round up all these kids to get their picture taken.

1:03:30And it's, it's kind of a big mess and then still play the game. So we were waiting in line and the team behind us, this mom, I mean, we're talking second grade boys. The mom just lights it to her kid about, I can't believe you did this. You've been ruining the morning and just screaming at him. And everyone else is kind of like, geez, lady. But it's one of those things where like, I know how she got to that point. It was a series of things that happened. But it's very awkward to watch another parent discipline their child in public. It's very uncomfortable. You're in a no-win situation. Yeah, yeah.

1:04:06But this lady lost, totally lost it. And even my kid's like, geez. Everyone has their line of how much they can take. Yes. I totally get where she's coming from. I've never done that in public, but I wouldn't. I'm not saying it's impossible. I hope I never do, but. Yes. You can see how it's possible. Kobe, if you're listening, don't push me. Yes. Don't push me. All right. Michael Beschloss tweeted this photo of President Abraham Lincoln today, 1865 at age 55. Now, listen, he had been through some shit, obviously. Yes. But, I mean, if you just want to use a picture for the progress that we've made over the century, decades, and last 150 years, more, I mean, he looks like he's 95.

1:04:51My take on Lincoln is that he does not look like a real human being in his pictures. He looks like a movie character, someone you'd create in a movie somehow. He doesn't look like a real person. Credit to him. Look at that head of hair. The hair looks like a 40-year-old, and his face looks like a 90-year-old. Honest Abel's a good-looking guy. All right, Ben, what do you got? All right, we watched episode one of Masters of the Air, or Masters of Air, whatever it's called, on Apple. I'm in. And? I'm in. It's not going to be as good as Band of Brothers or the Pacific, which I absolutely love, but it's going to be good.

1:05:24That's where I'm at. Okay, so here's my take from earlier on J-Lo. I caught the movie Chasing Amy, a Ben Affleck, Affleck 1991. Classic. Never get made in a million years today, but it's sort of a time capsule of the 1990s. So Ben Affleck and what's the other guy's name? Jason Lee are comic book creators. I cannot buy Ben Affleck as a comic book creator. Like he's creating, it just doesn't make any sense. And I feel like this is the kind of thing that happens in movies. Like remember in War of the Worlds where Tom Cruise is moving those big crates and Adam Sandler is always like a dentist or something.

1:06:02That's how Jennifer Lawrence was like a downer luck bartender in her new movie. Sometimes it's hard for me to, that's a good movie. Right. When like a really good person or like they're, they're either the job is way too high level for them or they're way too good looking to do this job. That's one of the things that always gets me with movies is like, this person would never have that job. One other thing. Affleck had a goatee in the movie. Okay. Like, and not just like a fancy goatee. Like some people have today with like just the little, you know, what's this triangle thing called? That's called the, uh, the douche patch.

1:06:33I don't know. What's it called? A soul patch? Soul patch. There you go. Not like a fancy one. It was like the thick 1990s goatee, which was a total 90s thing. And I'm wondering, mustaches have made a comeback. Like at first people were doing it ironically and just in Brooklyn and now people do it everywhere. Like a mustache is a real thing. Do you think goatees will ever make a comeback? I feel like that's a total 1990s. I'm sure there's some people with goatees still, but it's a very 90s thing. Well, people rock goatees in Movember. They get their kick. Okay. But it was a total 90s move to have a goatee, like a very thick goatee.

1:07:05Listen, everything makes a comeback. Okay. That's all I got. Okay. So, Robin and I are watching True Detective, and after episode one, I'm like, I'm in. After episode three, you're like, eh. And after episode four, what the f**k? I mean, they are really asking a lot of the audience to stick with them because it's boring and really nothing is happening. and I would have been out except I found out that it's only six episodes. So now, I mean, I'm in for another two hours but it's not good. And I don't even think that they can make it good. Are you watching it? Yeah, it's just okay. It's not, I don't think it's bad.

1:07:44It's okay. Did you see the fourth episode? We're halfway through it. Okay. Yeah, I don't think it's bad. It's just not good. No, it's not great. I think they just could not recreate the magic of the first season. The third, the one with Mahershala Ali when Stephen Dorff was pretty, it's okay. but this one is just, yeah. All right. So I binge watched Band of Brothers this week. Oh, really? Okay. And? I watched, I have one episode left. So that movie came out. Do you remember when it came out? I was in college, I think. It premiered two days before 9-11. Oh, really? Yeah, I was in college. I remember watching it.

1:08:22All my college friends would get together every Sunday night to watch it. Yeah, so September 9th was the premiere episode. And it's an extension. I mean, it's Saving Private Ryan, right? It's, it remains, I read the book too. The book, it remains my favorite book of all time. The Bandit Brothers book. Favorite book of all time, wow. So I, it's, it's, it's, it's incredible. And I don't, how did they make it? I mean, I'm just watching this thing from 20 plus years ago. How the hell, so Hankson Spielberg produced it. It feels so real. All right, if you're really into it, watch The Pacific next. I thought the Pacific was just - Well, that's why I'm doing it because I did want to watch whatever the Apple one is.

1:09:04So I know I have to watch this and then Pacific is up next. But yeah, I'm 23 years behind, but - I think it's on Netflix now too. It's amazing. Oh, is it? Okay, excellent. Very good. Not a fun watch. Not a fun watch by any means, obviously, but a good watch. Okay. All right, we went long. Sorry about that. Hey, everybody. All right, Animal Spirits Pod. Nope, I'm sorry. Animal Spirits. Nope, I apologize. animalspiritsatthecompoundnews.com. Thank you for listening. Duncan, thank you. We'll see you next time.

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