The Market Cap of Taylor Swift (EP.324)

25:07But I don't know. Doesn't this – can't this lead to a really bad outcome? like the end of the financial system no i don't know just like i don't know something bad i know the government is not a household and it shouldn't be treated as such but i don't know but don't you think that that the only i mean the the bad thing would be if if higher debt costs just push like if it's a pie that's not growing and higher debt costs make it so other stuff is not being spent on right that's a bad thing other government services are being left by the wayside but it's just isn't inflation the biggest risk always from something like this what do you mean it's like substantially higher like government spending being so high just means that the i think the biggest risk is always going to be higher than average inflation but i don't think this is government spending it's it's just like what it costs to borrow what it costs to service all of our debt government debt that's what i mean but then we just print more money to pay off the debt.

26:07It's like a, some people would call it a Ponzi scheme. It's not, but that's what all right. Something else back to trend. Uh, Jason Furman was tweeting about how real average hourly earnings are kind of coming back down. And he, he did the trend through like 2018 and it was below trend. But then he said, well, let's look at 20, go through 2007. So you have a more cycles, you have a couple of recessions and it's 0.6 % below trend. This is real average hourly earnings, but basically kind of back on trend. We had a huge spike, then we had the below, and now we're back. And so the whole people falling behind thing has happened for the last 18 months or whatever.

26:44But it was short-lived, and we're just kind of back on trend. And if you look here, this is kind of the way things go. Above trend, below trend, this is how cycles happen. It's not bad. Like, look at this next one. I did inflation rate, U.S. quits, and U.S. job openings. Okay? So they all kind of follow the same track. And I did it on different, you can do it on different panes here in Y charts. I didn't want to be accused of doing an axis chart crime. Right? I'm very aware of the chart crime. So inflation is coming down. So they all kind of rose at the same time. They're all falling at the same.

27:22So is it possible for things to just go back to normal? Like Matthew Bosler tweeted that. Well, the quits thing was insane during the pandemic. Right? That was the fastest way to get a raise was to quit. your job and get a new one. Yes. But I guess the hard part is like, how do you distinguish between things getting back to normal and things overshooting and leading to bad outcomes? You just, I mean, obviously you just don't know. Well, you just wait and see. Yes. All right. Let's talk about crypto a little bit. So Grayscale won their case against the SEC. Now the ball's in the SEC's court. They still did delay the decisions on the ETFs for another, I think it was 45 days, more days, kicking the can.

28:12The grayscale, the GBTC discount shrank rapidly. Last reading was, it was at a 19 % discount to NAV. And this is like the whole crux of the issue is that the GBTC closed end fund does not have the arbitrage mechanism that ETFs do. So it could trade at a wide premium as it did in the first couple of years of its life, which led to a lot of the nonsense. Now it's at a severe discount. And if and when they're able to convert to an ETF, that will shrink ostensibly overnight. And so GBTC is up 123 % in the year as this discount has narrowed more than twice as much as the 55 % year-to-date return on Bitcoin.

28:56It's still way underperforming over the last five years. Bitcoin is up 285 % over the last five years. Grayscale is up 94%. Oof. Big oof. I don't want to steal a take here, but I think it was yours. Was it you who said, I don't think Grayscale wants this to convert to an ETF because they're just earning 2 % per year on this or something. They're not going to be able to charge the same amount of fees on this as they would if it didn't convert to an ETF. So I think when they were doing all the hand-wringing a couple of years ago that – I have no evidence of this. I'm just speculating. That it was sort of a charade.

29:32Like let us convert, you know? But I think now they need to. Well, yeah. There's no other choice because they need to have us coming one way or another. Right. When this thing converts, how much money is just immediately going to leave? That was just waiting for this discount premium to – or this discount to close. You mean people that came in late and are just waiting for the power? Using it as like a arbitrage opportunity. So, well, I don't know. You think people are going to pay taxes just to get into a cheaper vehicle? Money that's just been stuck there for years. People saying, why would I sell this asset that is trading at a discount?

30:06And then once that discount closes, it's back to where it was. I don't think so. I think so because there's going to be a price war. All right. So let's say there's$16 billion in the thing. I mean, how much leaves? A billion? I think like a third of it could leave. No way. I would hardcore take the under and I'll, I'll bet you a sushi dinner. I don't eat sushi, but you know what I'm talking about. All right. So they get an ETF within six months. They're down a third in assets. No way. Timestamp it. Okay. That money's going, that money's going to iShares or something else that has a lower fee. Nah, nah.

30:44So anyway, the pop, poof, evaporated. There was a big fat pop. I think Bitcoin traded from like 25 to 28 or something. Now it's back down to wherever it was pre-announcement. So even despite the 55 % year-to-date return on Bitcoin, it just seems nobody cares. Nobody's interested. Tom Dunleavy tweeted almost$300 million in digital asset outflows over the past seven weeks. centralized exchange volumes at 2020 levels, reaching peak bearishness apathy slash apathy. Of course, we don't know where the peak is, or peak in apathy, bottom in price. But yeah, nobody cares. It's hard to see the ETF being this savior to the industry.

31:24Why? I'm saying it's not like the ETF has raised interest in it so far. Do you think the ETF is going to be a savior to the crypto industry? No, probably not. I mean, remember when they launched, futures were going to be traded at the CMA? Matter of fact, I think that was the top in 20, whatever it was, 19? I don't remember. This morning, though, so we always talk about the use case. The use case, where's the use case? This morning, somebody from Visa, actually, the head of crypto at Visa, tweeted, Visa expands stablecoin settlement capabilities to merchant inquirers. Now, I read the tweet that I'm going to be honest.

32:00I don't understand most of this, but I mean, Visa, blockchain. Say no more. Hello, Visa, blockchain. So I don't know. Maybe, I mean, this has been a speculation all along is that TradFi uses blockchains to bring efficiencies to their ways of doing business. It's behind the scenes for the financial system. We spoke to Fidelity last week. When's the podcast dropping on that? Next Monday. Next Monday. Okay. Right. All about Fidelity Digital Assets and what they're doing over there. So that's coming on Monday. All right. I want to talk about idiosyncratic risk in real estate, which, man, that's just a word I love saying, idiosyncratic.

32:43It is a good word. That's a word that makes you, in the finance world, that makes you sound a lot smarter. Yeah. Right? Yeah, I like it. That's a good call. Yeah. Okay. So I got an email last week on, I think, Wednesday morning. I'm in kind of an old school WeWork building where my office is. it's just a bunch of little small businesses, doctor's offices and insurance companies. And I just have a single office for me. It's just me here. I'm holding down Ritholtz Wealth, Grand Rapids by myself. I have an office. I've had it for seven or eight years. I get an email from the building manager and they just bought this building like 18 months ago probably.

33:19And so whoever sold made a good timing on getting out of commercial real estate. But said, hey, a pipe burst on the third floor. there's three floors and water is rushing down and it happened at four in the morning. So the fire, I don't know how they got alerted to it. Fire station, the fire trucks came over at like six or seven AM to shut it off. And so water is running for three hours for a burst pipe. And so I come to the office to check, to make sure all my computer podcast gear is okay. And I was, there's three inches of water in the hallway. I took, I had to take my shoes off to walk through the hallway, just broken stuff everywhere.

33:56And office on the left side of me, office on the right side of me are flooded, just total flood. Again, three inches of water. My office is completely fine. I don't know how it happened. I got lucky, but they had to have like this crew come in this restoration crew. It was like seven trucks and they're ripping stuff up and they're putting these huge industrial fans down and they're turning stuff off and spraying for mold. And it just got me thinking about like, that's like the, the thing you don't hear about in investing in real estate is like the one-off things that can just screw you. Obviously, I'm sure there's some insurance or they'll probably be okay, but I can't imagine owning a building like that and have something like this happen and having to deal with the ramifications.

34:42Your index fund is not going to call you in the middle of the night and say a pipe burst. right i'm not saying like don't invest in real estate but it's just it just made me think of that right that it's there's a lot of there's a lot more stuff that can go wrong if you're not diversified more stuff can you know can go right too but the the range of outcomes is just wider i was at the dinner with a friend of mine the other night and he had a phone call and it was probably 10 o 'clock and now he's not, he's not a, a real estate investor. He's a general contractor. And one of his clients like had, had three inches of water in their apartment because I don't know, whatever, something thought a pipe or whatever, whatever, but yeah, this shit happens.

35:26And, uh, not phone calls you want to get, but it's phone calls that you will get. Right. That's a problem. Uh, all right. Is this a chart crime? All right. I want to talk about this. A bunch of people tagged me on this. Someone posted on Twitter. I mean, it certainly is. Believe it or not, housing affordability hasn't changed in the last 40 years. The median new house today is almost a thousand square foot bigger than 40 years ago. Price per square foot inflation adjusted basically is unchanged since the late 1970s. Could we rewind to the believe it or not part? Because I'm going to go with the or not.

35:55So here's the problem with this. So I looked at the actual source of this article, but my first problem with it is it stops in 2020. right so i think you could have made the argument through 2019 2020 that and i did like adjusted for inflation and interest rates you wrote a post on that yeah and it yeah it was like basically two years ago yeah that that that held water but it said in 2017 the price per square foot of a new home was only four percent more than 1979 this is adjusted for inflation but it stops in 2020. Luckily, our resident actually guy on Twitter, Jake Economic, took the data through 2023.

36:37Now you can see it just takes off. Come on. Don't tell me that buying a house is not expensive. Adjust it for anything. Affordability right now is the worst I'd say that it's ever been. And that's especially when you mix in the fact that the supply is so low. But that's the crazy thing is through the 2010s, housing was still very affordable. And then in the blink of an eye, it became unaffordable. That's the hard part. Here's one for you. Good luck buying a house in Miami. Median home sales in Miami rose 17 % from a year earlier in the four weeks ending August 27th, the biggest increase the metro area seen since October 2022.

37:19Biggest increase of all 50 most populous u.s metro areas they said the funny thing is unlike most big places that had a huge influx of housing miami never saw housing prices drop so housing prices never dropped and then now they're increasing almost 20 again which is just kind of crazy they also said two out of every five buyers in miami are paying all cash so it's just rich people coming in and buying up Miami. Median home sale price was up to$380 ,000, up 4.8 % from a year earlier. That's the biggest increase since October. I'm still waiting for these monetary policy lags to hit the housing market because that should be the one that gets hit right away, right?

38:00I know people keep saying, just wait, the lags are happening. They're coming. They're coming. Credit to Goldman. I was reading one of their notes this morning, and apparently they've been saying that they don't buy the notion that the policy impact lag thing. That doesn't make sense. That's not English. But you know what I'm saying. They don't buy it. They're not buying it. They say not only is the impact not going to show up on a lag, it's not going to show up at all. My retort would be things happen so much faster now that you'd think that policy would get priced in, that the financial system moves way quicker than it did before.

38:36The other thing would be, it would just, if rates stayed at this level, then eventually there has to be something that happens. Like it can't, but if inflation is falling and the Fed cuts rates over the next 18 months or so, then I don't know. How can you call it lags at that point? I don't know. It does seem unsustainable, but you know, the hell do we know? So they also had the housing payments are up 17, 28 % year over year. You know, we've shown this chart before, but it's at an all-time high again, almost$2 ,700. There was a story in Fortune about this couple that asked on their registry for a down payment fund.

39:11So they said, give us money for a down payment as a wedding gift, which I actually applaud them for. It's kind of sad. It has to be that way. So then it says they couldn't find anything, couldn't find anything. They found, I think they were in Florida. They found a 900-square-foot, one-bedroom condo listed for$300K, also$600 extra HOA fees. They had a 7 % mortgage,$2 ,300. I don't know. That seems expensive to me. It's just crazy to me how much that 7 % mortgage just kills you. Also, our HOA fee is the biggest scam in the world. Like you hear about some of the condo fees people have to pay. What is it?

39:48I don't know what that stands for. Homeowners Association? Yeah. Well, New York is the most egregious example, but some of the fees you have to pay to live in a condo building, there's no way it costs that much for upkeep for these places. So where does it go? Just to the coffer? I don't know. That's what I'm wondering. You know, we spoke earlier on the podcast about Brian, who happened to be listening to the podcast last week and got my pants. The craziest story, and I'm sure I told this at the time. This was years ago. You know, we've been doing this podcast for a long time. We have, over five years, right?

40:22Coming up, we started in November 2017, I believe. That's right. So I bought an apartment, a co-op in Park Slope in 2015. And there was - It will never not sound like a ski city to me. Why Brooklyn is called Park Slope, I don't get it. It sounds like it should be a ski city in Utah. Well, there's a park. Got a little - Prospect Park. And the city slopes downward, I guess. Anywho, there was no money in the bank for this building. There's only like five or six units. And in the bylaws, there is a flip tax because there's only, you know, it's a very small building. They don't want anybody buying and selling.

41:09And the flip tax was in place for four years, which is a long time, right? Four years is not a flip. And so I sold my unit with like three years, six months, three years, eight months, whatever it was. And these jerks in my building wouldn't let it go. I had to pay like a 2 % tax or whatever it was, 2 % of the purchase price. Why do they care if people buy and sell? Well, because it's a family. It's families there and they don't want a lot of turnover. Okay. But four years, that's excessive. So anyway, so they said no. they hit me with the flip tax. And then, sorry, I probably complained about it on the podcast.

41:48And some, I got an email, the person who sold me the apartment. So the person that I bought from, the person that they bought from is a listener. So basically my grandparents, my grandpa of the apartment. He was the one who put the flip tax in place.

42:13so he apologized for me but what a small world what if you get someone who buys into the building that you don't want to be there you want them to get out that's a great point now you're holding him in there that's a great point all right we've looked at this before uh this is from the economist real housing prices since 2000 it shows canada britain italy u.s france germany japan Canada is just off the charts. I wrote a piece in, I think, 2017. This makes no sense. I wrote a piece in 2017 saying the Canadian housing market is a crazy, crazy bubble. It didn't really matter. Yeah, should have. That's the Stanley Druckenmiller, George Searle.

42:49When you see a bubble forming, you go in to write a blog post. Britain is way higher. France is way higher. The U.S. still doesn't look. Italy is falling. I guess if you want to place on Lake Como with George Clooney, that's the place to buy. I keep coming back to the idea of I don't know. Just what if U.S. housing prices are, if we don't ever, if we don't like have some government policy that forces builders or incentivizes builders to build more homes, I think U.S. housing prices are still going to be undervalued for like a long, long term. Hey, maybe the guy who did that tweet was right. Maybe it's not a chart card.

43:25Maybe U.S. home prices are cheap. Certainly not cheap. But I mean, are we really going to look back in 30 years and see like housing prices not go up most of the time, even if it's not as, I don't know. We got an email. Hi, guys. As you know, housing in Canada is bonkers. Now three of the big five banks have disclosed that 20 % of their mortgages are negative amortization, which means the monthly payments aren't enough to pay the interest. What? And the remaining interest is getting added back to the principal. Oh, boy. Okay. I just learned about this. Do you know how Canadian mortgages work? I know they're very short-term, right?

44:02They're floating. Let me explain this to you real quick. I learned about this. Someone sent a story about this. So they're fixed payments, but the interest rates are variable. So all it does is if rates go from 3 % to 7%, it extends the life of your mortgage or less money goes to your principal and more goes to interest. So the payment stays the same. It's not like they're jacking up payments, but the amortization thing they're talking about here, basically instead of whatever, 60 % of your payment going to principal, Now 20 % is or something. Wait, let me ask you a dumb question. You're paying more interest.

44:35Is that a better system than what we have? No, because eventually if you're underwater, like they're saying, they're going to have to either extend the loan, you're paying more, or it's certainly not a better system. It's not a good thing. We're lucky that we have things the way they are. Well, actually, you know what? Because, yeah, because how many people are actually impacted by rising interest rates. What is it? Two thirds of people. How many people have a fixed rate mortgage below 5%, like 90 % on their six? Anyway. The other thing is they, people in Canada, they benefited when rates were falling.

45:17They did amazing when rates were falling, having a variable rate mortgage. So everyone benefited on the way down and everyone's getting hurt on the way out. So better for inequality maybe. All right. Anyway, this is possible because in Canada, Okay, we already discussed this. Yeah, pretty wild. But wait, it says, and their new amortizations get reset to a maximum of 25 years. What if you've got like five years left and then all of a sudden rates go up and then you get, you're like, sorry, you've got another seven years. So that's what I don't know. Maybe people can, in Canada can let us know. I don't know if that means you have to make like a big principal pay down to get it more in line.

45:51Like if that's the 25 year thing, like they can't give you a 50 year loan. The banks aren't going to do that. Do you have to like just do a principal pay down? All right. Another email. Random bank in Dallas bought my mortgage 3.07 % with 17 years left. How is this a good move on their part? What am I missing? I couldn't care less, but for them, isn't that like buying a 17-year bond at 3.07 %? Maybe they'll package it with other mortgages to sell. Okay. No, this is not like buying a 17-year bond at 3.07 % because even though that's your mortgage rate, the prices on these bonds have adjusted so that instead of them, they're not getting a 3 % coupon.

46:31They're probably getting closer to, I don't know, whatever, 6%, 7%, 8%. Well, no. Yeah, they're buying the bond at a discount. Yeah, they're buying the bond at a discount, which raises a good point. It's trading for 80 cents in the dollar or whatever it is because of the change. We were asking about, we were wondering why are spreads so wide on mortgage rates versus the 10-year? And I think we got, actually, we got a long email about this. is because of prepayment risk. Bond buyers are like, no, sorry. I know that as soon as rates go down, all of these bonds are going to get refinanced. And so I'm buying them at 8%, but they're not really going to give me 8 % of maturity.

47:11So whatever the number actually ends up being, obviously nobody knows the path of interest rates, but that's a big reason why the spread between mortgage rates and the 10-year is where it is because everybody knows that there's a ton of refinance risk embedded in these bonds. And prepayment has been extended now too, because a lot of the bonds that are at 3 % are not getting prepaid. And so they know the duration is even longer. In the past, you would assume a mortgage bond is going to pay off in like, I don't know, an average of seven or eight years. If that duration gets extended to 12 to 15 years, that's a whole different kind of bond.

47:44Yeah. Ben, you got a new car lease. Okay. I want to talk about this here, but we're talking to car dealership guy. later today actually for a podcast that's going to run I don't know next week we said we're running five days a week we're giving you an extra one for free on Saturday and so I got a new lease and I was just shocked at how I thought my car payment was going to go up to the moon because auto rates are like 9 % now to the health and I was pleasantly surprised I might have got lucky but I'm going to talk about the car dealership guy and save it for that also new car smell just on my kids the best my kids are like like run out of the house and go into the garage and open the door and smell my car and come back and i'm like hey hey hey quit open the door you're gonna you're gonna use it all my my new car smell in my jeep is just about gone so enjoy it while it lasts yeah because you have the top coming down all right we talked about this before i think a couple weeks ago we talked about how like if you're married it's the same as having 100k added to your salary if you're divorced it's like taking subtracting 90k something like that to which a bunch of people replied, if you just get married and divorced a bunch of times, that's like an arbitrage for 10K.

48:53You're just flipping the coupon. But the Atlantic had a piece and they looked at America's happiness ratings from 1972 to 2018. And there's this huge drop off in 2000. Now, my initial thought would have been, oh, internet. That's got to be it. It's internet. Social media, internet is making people more unhappy. This researcher, after slicing the demographic data it every which way, income, education level, race, location, and gender. Peltzman found that this happiness dip is mainly attributable to one thing. Married people are happier and Americans aren't getting married as much. This number shocked me.

49:27In 1980, 6 % of 40-year-olds had never been married. Today, it's 25 % of 40-year-olds. And so he's saying, and they even said in this article, like, listen, we haven't verified and dug through the data yet, but his whole thing is it's just fewer people getting married means more people are unhappy. And he didn't really come away with a reason though. Like why are married people happier than people who aren't married? Because you only have to do half the chores. Boom. Dual income households. I don't know. I couldn't, they didn't give a good answer. Maybe it's just that we need companionship. Is that the simple answer?

50:07Yeah, it's lonely being lonely. I was going to talk about this in recommendations. I watched National Lampoon's Vacation. It was on rewatchables recently. And I think it's one of my favorite rewatchables of all time. It was Van Lathan and Bill Simmons and Chris Ryan. And they were just dying the whole time. And you could tell that these guys had seen this movie like 20 or 30 times. And I told you, if you watch it once, you're probably not going to laugh that much. I do need to rewatch it. I did chuckle the first time a few times. But it's the kind of movie where you kind of go, oh, that's funny.

50:32But then if you watch that, I watched it. I watched half of it by myself and my wife the next time. I'm like, hey, why don't you watch the rest with me? And it's the kind of thing you'll go, oh, here comes the part with this. And it's just better to watch it with someone else than it is to watch it by yourself. All right, last week we talked about disaster insurance and how my hedge for climate change is living in the Midwest. This is from the Washington Post. At least five large U.S. property insurers, Allstate, American Family, Nationwide, Erie Insurance Group, Berkshire Hathaway. Warren Buffett's getting on this early.

51:01I've told regulators that extreme weather patterns caused by climate change have led them to stop rating coverages in some reasons. They say they will cut out damage caused by hurricanes, wind, and hail from policies underrating along the coastlines and in wildfire country. It's like people are just going to be kind of on their own for this kind of stuff, or they're just going to pay like exorbitant rates in the future. But people are still moving to Miami. Remember last week we were talking about homeowners insurance? Now, we did get some emails on that. A bank does require you when you're getting a mortgage to have homeowners insurance.

51:36That's what I thought. But is it two-thirds of people that own a home don't have a mortgage? What's the number? Is it one-third? I can't remember. It's close to 40 % of people do not have a mortgage anymore. House is completely paid off. Okay. So those people, they're playing with fire. Yes. I guess you rolled the dice. Although I do – that's a good point. So not only are they not raising prices, they're just backing out. They're just like, we just can't underwrite this. speaking of that underwrite that's hilarious when people uh say instead of instead of investing they say underwriting it's like bro you bought four shares what are you talking about yes you're not underwriting anything you're buying four shares that you're gonna probably sell in three weeks by the way i'm talking about myself okay it does make you sound smarter that's an idiosyncratic risk kind of thing you say it it sounds smarter all right um okay so r.i.p to jimmy buffett i don't know i can't imagine you're a big jimmy buffett fan maybe you are well i like what he's about he used to come to Long Beach, not Long Beach, Jones Beach every summer, most summers.

52:40I went to a Jimmy Buffett concert outside of Chicago right after I graduated college. And it was one of the best pregame concerts I've ever been to in my life. It was a huge open field, but it was all baby boomers in Hawaiian shirts. There were ice luges and tiki bars. And it was an amazing time. And my dad got me into Jimmy Buffett way back in the day. For me, it's the kind of music in the summer or like in the Caribbean, wherever you are in Mexico with like a Corona that and Bob Marley to me, that kind of music in a certain, it's yacht rock at a certain time. It's never going to go out of style.

53:14I listen to it. So there was a story in the New York times a few years ago, like three or four years ago, like how like Jimmy Buffett does not live the Jimmy Buffett lifestyle. And it talked about how like, he doesn't really drink margaritas anymore. Cause he doesn't have sugar and he doesn't really eat cheeseburgers cause he has no carbs and he doesn't really to smoke pot anymore. And it's like, and he, it says how he worked all the time. And he was working on like a Margaritaville Broadway show or something. And it was like, he did have like this laid back. I read his, his biography. He wrote a book at like age 50 and it was really good.

53:47And he really lived that lifestyle. He'd like sleep on the beach. He'd live on a boat. He'd drink until the sun came up, listening to music and learning how to play guitar. He really did like live that lifestyle. But then in his older years, he became like this entrepreneur and he's worth like half a billion dollars and he's just working all the time. So the whole point of the article was like, he's not really Jimmy Buffett anymore. He's like this businessman and he runs the show. And he said, well, I'm more like a sail captain. I want to have my hands in everything. And at first I thought like, it was like a practice what you preach thing.

54:13Like, is this like false advertising that he doesn't live in anymore? But then the more I thought about it, the more I thought like, well, of course he couldn't keep that lifestyle up his whole life. Like he wouldn't have made it, right? And I think my whole takeaway was like, your priorities change over time. You can't just live like you did when you were young forever. Right? Like you, you go to bed at like 10 o 'clock now, right? And we're staying out late for you, pretty much? That kind of thing? Yeah, more or less. I'm still hanging on to my youth. Okay, well, kind of. Anyway, it was like it made me just, the whole story pulled me in different directions.

54:52Like, wait a minute. He does not practice when he preaches, but it's like, well, so what? Your priorities change over time. but anyway, RIP to a legend. Still love his music. RIP to a legend. All right. I'm excited to read this email. Michael, I've gotten so much insight and entertainment out of listening to the pod for the last two years. This week's episode was enough to push me over the edge and realize that I need to give something back. Unlike Ben, I simply couldn't listen to the story of a hungry bald who just wants some spicy noodles sans fees and not do something about it. I know you're an Amazon prime member.

55:24so I went ahead and launched an offer with Grubhub to give you and any other Hungry Animal Spirits listeners a year of free Grubhub Plus. You'll get free delivery fees on orders over$12, exclusive deals and promotions, and for folks like Ben who are swimming in so much time luxury that they can leave the house for food, 5 % back on pickup orders. Head to the link for the offer and maybe give our Amazon basics pan another shot while you're out there. Sorry, I'm not going to do that, but thank you for the offer. Who is this from? Someone at Amazon? Yeah. Can't be ordering GrubUp every night in this economy.

56:02Well, this is a great email. What? Okay. What? Oh, with one of my credit cards gives me free DoorDash plus or whatever it is. It's the Sapphire Reserve. That's it. Yes. Yeah. Okay. So I have that. So we are going to link to this in the show notes. Again, free Grubhub for a year. Grubhub Plus for a year. So thank you to the gentleman at Amazon for the lovely email. All right, Ben, what do you think the market cap - No more complaints for you then about it, right? Oh, I'll still complain. What do you think the market cap of Taylor Swift is? I mean, if she was a stock, she'd be outperforming Nvidia this year.

56:40Like if somebody had the opportunity to buy all of Taylor Swift's future earnings potential at today's value. I don't know. Discount it all back. My oldest daughter is nine years old and is a self-described Swiftie, went to the concert they used to with my wife. We had to listen to it all summer long. And God bless her. Taylor Swift has a great catalog of music. I can't take it anymore. I just, I can't. It's too much. I need a break. But here's the thing. Her tour is making$1.5 billion or something. Maybe it'll be two at the time. But what's her price to sales ratio if she's making$2 billion on her concert?

57:25So the smallest stock in the S &P 500 is a company that I've never heard of. Shame on me. It's called Fortria. Although, you know what? Not shame on me. I don't know every stock in the S &P 500. Fortria Holdings. Fortria is a global contract research organization that provides services with the goal of advancing health. All right, whatever. That's$2.35 billion. If Taylor Swift were publicly traded, would she be in the S &P 500? Yes. I think so too. Right? She can't produce$2 billion every year like she is because she's going to die eventually if she has this many tours. But yes. Got to be. How many stocks in the S &P 500 would you buy instead of buying Taylor Swift from here?

58:09Not that many for me. I'd rather put my money in Taylor Swift than I would in most companies in the S &P right now. Yeah, for sure. All right, Ben, recommendations. What do you got? I already mentioned National Lampoon's Vacation. Justified City Primeval I finished, which I never realized. What is that? It's the Justified reboot on FX. Justified was a show. I mentioned it a few weeks ago. Oh, with Timothy Aldifant? Yes. I never saw it. Worth watching? The second season is amazing. I mean, it's five seasons, so it's probably too much for you to catch up now. But they had an amazing payoff from the original show in the last 10 minutes.

58:45So if you're an original Justified person, you have to watch this new one. And the ending was just amazing. They may be doing another one, I think. But I didn't realize, City Primeval is an Elmore Leonard novel from the 80s with a different character. And Quentin Tarantino and Timothy Olyphant on Once Upon a Time in Hollywood said, what if we took Raylan Gibbons from Justified and put him into this novel and updated it? And so it was Tarantino's idea to do this, which is kind of cool. I watched Lock, Stock, and Two Smoking Barrels last night. I think I found it on Starz. Now, this is the one where, back in the day, Guy Ritchie became really famous, besides marrying Madonna, when Snatch came out, right?

59:23Brad Pitt was in it. It was a bunch of – but if you were a real Guy Ritchie stan, you would say, no, no, no, no, Lock, Stock, and Two Smoking Barrels is actually better than Snatch. If you were a real Guy Ritchie stan, I believe you just referred to as Lock, Stock. Sorry. It's a great name. and I hadn't watched it in probably 15 years. And it's just the best word I could think of when I was finished was it's just a satisfying movie. It's like heists and all these storylines coming together at once. And when it all comes together, it's a little over the top, obviously, but it's just such a satisfying movie.

59:52I love movies like that. It was so good. Did you see Guy Ritchie's The Covenant? I did not yet. It's a very un-Guy Ritchie film, but very good. Okay, that's all I got. On to me. All right, I watched Friday the 13th. It's on HBO Max or now. I'm sorry. It's called Max. So I remember watching Friday the 13th. The only time I ever saw it, I was 13 years old at a sleepover on Halloween. And I was the only one. Me and my friends were sleeping in my friend's basement. And I was the only one awake. And I was in my sleeping bag. And I couldn't look over the sleeping bag because I was so petrified. Well, I got to say, this movie is not even borderline unwatchable.

1:00:34It's awful. Didn't age well. It was horrendous. Just horrendous. Your problem is you've probably seen too many horror movies in the meantime that built on that. Yeah, but so first of all, Jason's not even in the movie. His mom is a killer, which if you've seen Scream, you know that from Scream trivia. But just terrible. And Friday the 13th is like, you know, it's in like the Pantheon. It's awful. I never watched any of them. Awful. The horror stuff just awful. Okay. Okay, so I'm in a bit of a show drought, which I don't mind at all. Not even a little. I dialed up the season one, episode one of Curb.

1:01:16And it's from October 2000. So Robin comes by and she's like, why does this look so old? Cheryl especially looks like she's from a different era. Larry's still bald and everything. And I said to her, she's like, if it's from 2000, I'm like, yeah, guess what? That's 23 years ago. that is kind of crazy the show's been going on for that long and the first episode is hilarious it's exactly like it is today do you remember the pants tent? no oh yes okay I do he couldn't get the part in his pants to go down it's just classic LD and he's still doing it 23 years later you sent me a curb clip this weekend I forgot to respond but I didn't know the context did you remember you did that?

1:02:01oh that was hilarious You texted me a curb clip. Yes, it was pretty good. You were just kind of thinking of curb. Yes. Okay, that's it for us. We want to thank Big John Grayson for producing this episode. Stepping in for Duncan. If you are at Future Proof next week, right? Yes, next week. We take off Sunday. We will be doing live Animal Spirits on Monday. There may be Miami Vice is available. We'll see. It's going to be fun. Come say hi to us. Okay, indeed. Thank you for listening. As always, we appreciate the support. AnimalSpiritsPod at gmail.com. We'll see you next time.

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