This Is the Dumb Money (EP. 423)

24:40He basically says, listen, the deals are happening so fast now. You put the thank you for attention to this matter, or did he? He did. Okay. Yeah, not me. He said, the administration wants to close deals sooner rather than later be done with all the trade chaos. And he says, basically, between Japan, China, and the EU, along with Canada, Mexico, that pretty much covers 80 to 85 % of U.S. trade. In my opinion, that means we're done with the trade war. And they're kind of just moving on. Do you remember people who said, like, we need to go through a recession because it's so important? And I feel like that has just been like, never mind.

25:18I mean, no, no, I didn't say that. That was, we just, like. I don't want a recession. I know it hurts people, but we need one. We need a. The system needs one. Get lost with that. Yeah. All right. I'm of the opinion that AI is going to be a scapegoat. If we don't take our medicine now, we'll have to take it later. Listen, it's Main Street's turn, okay? It's Main Street's turn. Thank you for your service, wise one. Meanwhile, the stock market's up 30 % from the lows. So something we've been talking about, the college grad thing. By the way, even the administration, even Besson was saying, listen, things are very bad.

25:57we need to reset. We need to, you know, it's going to be painful. The transition is not going to be easy. You need a recession for lower interest rates. Employ America says, don't blame AI for the rise in recent graduate unemployment. And they go through this whole thing where they break it down a million charts. And it's really good. Just saying this trend has been in place way before AI. And they even look at like sectors that are impacted by AI and how they are not being impacted in the way that you would assume. So they break this down data wise. And I just think they don't see the evidence of AI meaningfully hurting recent college grads.

26:31And I think AI is going to be the scapegoat for a lot of things in the years ahead. It's going to be excuses for companies to lay people off. There's going to be people that are having a bad situation economically and looking for someone to blame, and it's going to be AI. Even if AI has all these impacts in certain ways, it's going to be the scapegoat for certain people. I think that you're right. it will be the scapegoat for a lot of issues, but I don't think that you could quantitatively hand the way through the way. Yes. Like it is making an impact, even if it's not the only thing that matters.

27:07Yeah, but I think the bigger impact is coming and it's not here yet. This is interesting. So speaking of the college stuff, Adam Ozemeck on Twitter says, around 60 people in their 30s do not have a college degree and the college wage premium remains near a stroke high. That number to me is just, the 60 % of people in their 30s don't have a college degree. It's hard to wrap your head around the fact of thinking it's that high. Wow. Right? It's one of those inverted equations where you go, oh my gosh, that's... Well, get out of your Midwestern elite bubble, Ben, and you, you know, meet some real Americans.

27:39I guess. So Charter had this chart this week that people were sharing on social media. And I know that you're not a big demographic guy, so if you want to tune me out like you usually do, go ahead. But they showed that the fertility rate across the world is just plunging. And there was a record low fertility rate in 2024 in the US. And people are saying like, this is terrible. Like in terms of productivity and economic growth, like the big thing is population, right? Those are the two things that matter for economic growth. If population falls off a cliff, that's a really bad thing for the state of the world.

28:12I think that used to be true. We needed more people to do more things. It's no longer true. and how about if this chart was inverted and fertility rate was skyrocketing, wouldn't there be mega concerns about the health of the globe? Like, oh, we're overpopulating the world. There's not enough resources. That used to be the worry. What's so wrong with this chart? I think this chart just shows we're getting richer. And when you get richer, and like you said, you don't need seven kids to work the farm for you. But I think the people who are worried about fertility rates falling off a cliff, AI is the answer.

28:47It's productivity. That picks up the slack for lack of population. Yeah, this is... I'm not a fertilitist, but I don't know. This doesn't concern me. Should it? Is that a thing? All right. Crypto time. All right. Here's the lead from an article by Greg Zuckerman and Vicky Gawang at the Wall Street Journal. It's the hottest trade of the summer. Companies are raising tens of billions of dollars not to invest in their business or hire employees, but to purchase Bitcoin and more obscure cryptocurrencies. A Japanese hotel operator, a French semiconductor manufacturer, a Florida toy maker, a nail salon chain, an electric bike maker.

29:22They're all plowing cash into tokens, helping to send all kinds of digital currencies to record levels. News that a company plans to buy crypto is enough to send its shares flying, sparring others to consider joining the frenzy. Since June 1st, 98 companies have announced plans to raise over$43 billion to buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. All right, this is the dumb money. I found it. This makes no sense. That right there sounded like something that you see in the book about this bubble. That's a public anecdote right there. I mean, this is ridiculous. This is nonsense. Mutual fund, giant capital group, hedge fund, D1 Capital Partners, and investment bank.

29:56Canada Fitzgerald are among those backing recent efforts. I just don't understand. I understand the thinking like, all right, we're going to buy a dollar of this token and the premium is going to be$2 or whatever. All right. but could you imagine like raising giant pools of money to do this? Like, and borrowing to do so. There's billions of dollars that are investing in, investing in these things. I mean, this is complete nonsense. This is not going to end well. And I hate, I hate, I hate the buckle up buttercup bullshit. I hate like warning people about, about, but like, this is, this is garbage.

30:39So I remember Josh wrote a piece when the SPAC boom hit and he said, listen, the thing that ends this is just more SPACs. The supply overwhelms the demand and that's the same thing that would happen you'd imagine, right? Now the thing with crypto that makes it unique is that the supply is fixed, right? And so more money coming in, it could just continue to, it could work for a while. I keep saying - But like the premium, like the idea that there's going to be a dozen micro strategies, that part, I just don't buy. Maybe there could be a few others. We talked about the volatility piece of crypto last week.

31:15And with the understanding that yes, volatility has come down, I keep seeing people say, listen, now that this is institutionalized, crypto is not going to have the crazy volatility. And I do not believe that for a second. This is still a crazy 24-7 market. And seeing air pockets in this, especially with all the borrowed money in here, I think that you're nuts if you think that the volatility, the crazy volatility is gone forever. I don't think so. This is interesting. I don't know if this person is a crypto soothsayer, but they have hashtag Bitcoin in their Twitter profile. So that means they must be legit.

31:49Okay. The wolf of all streets, Scott Melker. He's got a million followers. So he's a, he's a Bitcoin. So he says, Bitcoin is amazing, but it's obviously been co-opted to some degree by the very people that it was created as a hedge against. To some degree. Yeah. Many of the most ardent early whales have seen their faith shaken and have been selling at these prices. Now, I don't know if I saw people in the comments saying like, prove it. And he said, well, I had conversation. So maybe he's making this up. But is it possible that some of these people are finally going to go, hey, I joined this for like the libertarian, you know, we're fighting against the man and this isn't it anymore.

32:30I don't, now that we have all the ETFs and there's institutional capital, I'm out. Is that like, could that actually be the first thing that shakes some of these religious beliefs from these people? Because the religion aspect of it has been the whole thing so far, right? That's been the bull case. Is that, is it possible if Wall Street like sends these people like, fine, I'm out. If you're here, this is not what I signed up for. I sort of reject the notion of this conversation because it's so theoretical. Like, is it possible that some people are thinking this one thing? I don't know. Maybe. Sure.

33:04Could be. Well, yeah. Anything about the future is theoretical. No, no, no. But it's just such a ridiculous conversation. Like, this person tweeted something that people are thinking one thing. I don't know. Maybe they are. I told you his profile says hashtag Bitcoin. Did you think about that? I don't know. No, there does seem to be a lot of supply at 120. There is some selling going on there for the last week. My thought is that the Bitcoin people have been able to change their line of thinking through every cycle to something different. And I don't know why this would be any different than that.

33:35Like, hey, we got there first and they're just. I mean, what's not. There's no arguing that where we are today is very different from what the early Bitcoiners wanted Bitcoin to become. I mean, that's a fact. Yes. But how do they feel about that? They, I don't know. Everybody feels differently about things, especially when it comes to potentially hundreds of millions of their own dollars. Can you imagine telling them, listen, the biggest catalyst for the bull market in the mid-2020s is going to be an ETF. It's going to be financial advisors and institutions that come in to buy. How do you feel about that?

34:14It would have felt great, but who cares? Number go up. Yeah. All right. New record high. Let's move on. New record high for existing single family home prices in June. That's from Kevin Gordon. Okay. There is. All right. So I've been thinking a lot about this. Lower interest rates are obviously going to unlock supply. Right? People are trapped in their house. And demand. But way more. But demand never left. That's the thing. Demand is going to. It's just waiting in the shadows, right? Demand is going to so far outstrip supply, I believe, that for every seller, there will be 11 buyers. So I don't see home prices coming down.

35:01Do you? Well, they are in certain areas already. Nationwide. Yes, I think that the places that it's falling, there are specific reasons and it makes sense. And even if home prices did fall nationwide a little bit, then the lower rates immediately reverses it. So I'll give a housing update on my personal situation next week. So the boys have to switch elementary schools, which I did when I was in third grade. and Logan, who is going into first grade, said that he doesn't want to. And Rodman goes, see, he doesn't want to. We shouldn't do it. I go, Logan, what's five plus one? He said five. I said, I don't care what he thinks.

35:54His vote does not count. When I was in going from fourth to fifth grade, we moved from Grand Rapids to Traverse City, which is like a two and a half hour difference. My dad took a new job. up north and I was devastated. And my parents are like, why are we, they said years later, why are you so devastated? I'm like, I don't know, because the first week we started school, I immediately forgot about it and moved on and it didn't matter anymore, right? It's just change for a little bit. Yeah, it's scary, yeah. Right? And then you, yeah, but then you realize you move on and you're fine. Okay, this is from the Wall Street Journal.

36:28So far in 2025, investors who buy homes to flip or rent out have made up about 30 % of purchases. That's the highest on record. according to property analytics firm, Cotality, which tracks the sales for the past 14 years. So some people get mad about this, but this is not the kind of thing where you can get mad and blame the big private equity places, BlackRock, Blackstone, the usual suspects, because they're just stepping in where individual people don't want to go. And the funny thing is, is that small investors made up 25 % of these while large investors account for five. So they break it down to people who invest in three to nine properties, nine or 10 to 99, 100 to 999 and 1000 or more.

37:09And the biggest one is always people with three to nine properties. And this is a weird thing. I think I've said before that crypto was the first place where retail was really the big investor. But I guess you could say retail is a big investor in rental units as well. Like it's people who just own a handful of rental properties. They're not like these big mammoth organizations. It's still the smaller ones that are doing it. And the growing one is just 10 to 99. So it's not like these big firms are doing it. And they say that the smaller people can take on more risk because they don't really have to report to pension funds or outside stakeholders.

37:45It's just themselves. And they have less competition now because individuals aren't buying. Yeah. So the fact that this is happening, they're part of the reason activity is still even, it would be even worse if it weren't for these investors. even though you got out of that game. I retired. Technically, you were a real estate investor. All right, Lance Lambert said we've hit three years of mortgage rates at 6.5 to 7.5%. Brief breaks, but that's pretty much been where we've been stuck since 2022. And I've said this before, I never would have believed the housing market would have held up this well with rates this high for this long.

38:28Wouldn't you have assumed, like there has to be a 10 % correction if rates are going to be that high. There has to be. Well, the thinking was backwards. Yeah, it was. It was backwards. It was like, well, no. And maybe it should have been obvious, but I guess that's what hindsight is, that rates is high. We're going to trap people in their houses. And there was just, supply was just going to be completely wiped off the market. What would have happened if rates would have stayed under 5 % for the last three years? What would have happened? Would it have died off eventually, do you think? Like the fervor of, crazy waiting lines for how many millennials are there waiting to buy a house was it like is the number 40 million probably well maybe not that high i think the whole i think the homeownership rate for millennials is yeah it's probably i guess it's 55 or so i don't know right i i who knows who's to say what could happen maybe houses could have gone to zero who's who knows all right anything's possible all right this is a cool study someone sent us from construction physics.com they wanted to figure out how many vacation homes there are in the united states overall.

39:28And I don't know what kind of property records they looked at, but they say as of 2023, there's 142 million housing units, roughly one home for every 2.4 people in the country. 14.8 of them are vacant. 4.8 of those are vacation or seasonal. So 3.5 % of the total. So it's a very, very small amount. Then they look at the place with the most vacation homes, And it's Florida, 800 ,000, followed by California, New York, and then Michigan in the top five, which doesn't surprise me because of all the water. Does that number seem high to low to you that it's like three and a half percent of people of houses in this country are vacation homes?

40:07It's a tiny amount, obviously. Sounds exactly right. Think so? I don't know. What do you think? Yeah, it sounds about right. All right. Let's talk private markets. All right. Jason Zweig wrote, Wall Street is promoting a colossal lie. Money manners are in a desperate race to stuff illiquid so-called private market assets into funds anyone can buy, including your 401k. They say we all can earn high return and low risk with non-traded alternatives like private equity, venture capital, and private real estate. Jason is fighting the good fight, trying to warn investors of potential risks and blind spots, and Lord knows there are many of them with private markets, he's not going to win this one.

40:55Listen, I think the points he makes are valid. On the one hand, the fact that only 5 % of shares can be redeemed every quarter or whatever, is it quarter or year? Quarter. Every quarter. That makes sense because these are meant to be long-term vehicles. You can't have illiquid vehicles be short-term in nature. But there are going to be investors who don't understand the liquidity profile of these, and they're going to be very angry when they want or need their money, and they can't get it out. There's going to be problems with some of these funds. For sure. There's going to be shenanigans with the marks on these things that the marks are not what you think they are, not what they say they are.

41:36So there's going to be issues. The lack of liquidity, to me, that's the least of it. If you buy this and you don't understand that there is not the liquidity of the stock market, that is on you. Because there is going to be so much disclosures and disclaimers and things out there. If you buy private illiquid stuff and you get mad that you can't get your money out, that's on you. Fair. I think most people will understand that. But I do believe that Jason is 100 % right about the way that these firms are marketing these investments, are telling the public why they need to get into them. They're doing it for a very simple reason, because the fees are much higher, because there is no liquidity.

42:24They can take these fees to the bank, right? You can get in. You can't leave. So this is very good business for Wall Street. This is Wall Street fighting back against passive investing. That's true. Listen, we had this nirvana of low-cost investing,$0 trades, basically buying index funds for free. And Wall Street said, no, no, no, no, no. We can't allow this to keep going. There's no way. We need our fees. Come on. I also think that while there will be a lot of disappointed investors, there will be a lot of returns that are not farmed. There will be risks that people don't know about. All of that is true.

42:59So ultimately, I think private managers, this is like a be careful what you wish for, because you know the phrase sunlight is the best disinfectant. A lot of the bullshit that they were allowed to get away with is going to be brought to light by reporters like Jason and others because there will be horror stories. Investors will get burned. But I think overall, what is inevitably coming, and it is coming, I think will end up at the end of the tunnel being good for the end investor. Because there will be more transparency. There will be more education and understanding. Because there have to be, right?

43:36Fees will come down. Advisors will push back against the bullshit. So there's a whole – But what all that leads to is just lower returns than they're being promised, which probably is a good thing. But I just, I have these experiences working with hedge funds back in the day. And we had one hedge fund who closed because their biggest investor left. Like they had a, they had a huge foundation or endowment and the endowment pulled their money and they said, all right, we have to shut this fund down because we can't do this anymore. So we're like, okay, give us our money back. And then they said, well, actually we have some private investments on the books and it took like three years to get the money.

44:08Yeah. And I see those kinds of things happening where it's like, oh, no doubt. But I also, I don't want to paint the entire industry with a broad brush that it's all bullshit because it's not. There are things that you can get in illiquid structures that are different, that are diversifiers, that are not coordinated to the economy. They're not all just made up. There wouldn't be that much money in them if this was all like some made up scheme to make Wall Street rich. Like infrastructure, for example. You just, you can't, I'm not saying that you need that, but you, if you want that, you can get it in, in, in an ETF wrapper.

44:42And when this stuff comes into ETF wrappers, it's a whole. And I think that there are some investors who understand the liquidity and want to have marks that come once a month or once a quarter and don't see the changing volatility, even it's volatility laundering. They are going to want that. A hundred percent. Yeah. Who wouldn't want that? And also people, you know, with, if you like talk about position size and you think people are like going all in on this stuff. Yes, that's the thing. It's got to be right-sized. And I think that's why places like BlackRock are talking about like 50, 30, 20 portfolios.

45:14Yeah. Right? All right. This from Torsen Slok makes people mad, but it doesn't really matter. In 2001, people aged 55 and above owned 50 % of all U.S. household assets. Today, they own 70%. When you say it doesn't really matter, what do you mean? Because it's just baby boomers getting older. And guess what? That money is going to be dispersed eventually. Father time is undefeated. This seems like, oh my gosh, but guess what? We've never had a cohort this big before live this long. So this was bound to happen. It's compounding. And then the baby boomers die off and the money gets dispersed. And guess what?

45:47Someday it'll be millennials in this position. Time solves this one. Yep. Okay. So every summer we take a family trip. My parents, for like a Christmas present, bring my whole family. my sister and her husband my brother and his kids their whole family so this is our first year without him which is kind of tough but we had funds we went in northern Michigan to a resort and we went to breweries and the breweries were all packed we went to a place on the lake and it's packed and there's boats everywhere do you think travel anecdotes are helpful for understanding the economy or is that going to be the last thing to go because I wonder if like that's, that's not going to be a leading indicator.

46:32Like people all of a sudden just stop spending on travel. Like it's one of those things where everywhere we went was just packed with people. And I just wonder if that is not going to be the helpful at all. And that comes later. No, I know what you're saying, but it's the first thing to go because these are the big ticket items. I think so. I feel like the people who can spend on travel will keep doing it and it'll seem. Yeah, but yes, of course. So the question is not, will it be the first to go? Because it will be. For people that are impacted by the economy or their industry, you're not going to cancel your Netflix.

47:08So you will pull back on the big things. But I think the bigger point is the upper middle class is so enormous that the travel boom is just different than what we're used to. It is. I was, I was, it is. So I was at, there's a, there's one restaurant on the water in my town and the food is whatever. It's nothing to speak of, but it's, but it's a spot on the water and it's, it's a great vibe. And it was packed. I got there at, what time did I get there? Eight o 'clock and it was like a 30, 40 minute wait. I'm like, this is unbelievable. I guess the economy is okay. Eating and drinking on the water gives you at least a 25 % premium on the vibes.

47:51So it's hard to untangle what sort of reflection is this restaurant on the economy or just people just eating out more and I don't know. I just don't know if it's going to be helpful for using that data to understand. Maybe this is just a big sea change for a lot of people. The counterpoint, and a lot of this was like foreigners, but we saw a pretty big softening at TSA numbers earlier in the year, in the first quarter. They did have a pretty dramatic dip. Then it came right back. Yeah, it came right back. So as far as health stuff goes, I'm a person who hates hacks. I think you have to put the work in.

48:32You have to exercise and eat right. That's the health hack. I know cold plunges are big in recent years. So we stayed at this resort and they had hot tubs and they also had saunas and cold plunges in between every one of these little townhouse places. And so my kids wanted to do the cold plunge. Like, oh, this will be fun. We'll go in the cold plunge. Then we'll go in the sauna. And I did the cold plunge and I kind of needed it because my kids woke me up and my brother-in-law still likes to go out and have fun when we all get together. So I went out to the bars. It was walkable. You know, I was safe.

49:01Home early, but still there was some tequila consumed. And let's say I wasn't, you know, at 100 % the next day. So I jumped in the cold plunge thinking, okay, this is a hangover cure. And it kind of was, it felt good, but I think that's a form of torture. I don't, you can show me all the studies that shows me like how it's better for your joints and circulation. And I think it's just a form of torture. I don't think, it's so painful to do. Just not fun at all. Yeah, I don't think I can handle that. I'm very weak. Sauna, I can get behind. Cold plunge, no way. All right, one more thing. Wait, can I just say one thing on the health stuff?

49:35So I don't know if you notice, In fact, I'm guessing you didn't. I'm down 14 pounds. My weight is now hovering around 169. Okay. What's your secret? If it sounds like I'm light, I just have no muscle. I'm not. But no, there's no. Well, I'm just not eating carbs. And I've pretty much cut out. I don't eat like. I've just been eating clean. That's all. You're not intermittent fasting? No, I'm not doing that. I'm just not really eating pizza or pasta. Nothing earth shattering. I don't know how that works. But here's the rub. I don't look good. Like, I asked Rob, I was like, do I look skinny? She's like, your belly's still kind of big.

50:12Like, it's not, I feel like I look exactly the same. 14 pounds is a lot. Right? But somehow I don't look better. I can see it in your face. Oh, thanks. Yeah. So one of the things, so we're on a lake, and there's this huge lake in northern Michigan that's really, it's crystal clear, it's beautiful, called Torch Lake. And we were driving around to go to a lunch place. My dad goes, man, when I moved up here in the 90s, I could have bought four plots of land here for like whatever, 100 grand each. And can you imagine how much they'd be worth right now? Millions. He's like, gosh, kicking myself. Will people still be saying stuff like that 30 years from now?

50:50Like I could have bought a plot of land here or a house here 30 years ago and oh my gosh. But the thing is, you mentioned people just are more attuned to travel and eating out and stuff now. I grew up in northern Michigan. it wasn't people didn't lean into how beautiful it was back then it's like some sometime in the early 2000s and maybe even like after the great fan truck crisis people finally realized like oh these places are beautiful maybe we should lean into that make good stuff for people to do and highlight them and and i don't know if just social media explosion helped that stuff but is are those is there no more low-hanging fruit i guess is what i'm asking yeah i i would say that there is no low-hanging fruit the way there used to be.

51:35I don't think there is either. I think there's too much money. And there's too much information. So a million bucks compounded at 2 % for 30 years, which is like a reasonable growth rate for real estate, right? Yeah. 1.8 million. So it's not like in 30 years, people are like, oh my God, you used to be able to get this for a million. You know what I mean? Because that's like the rate of inflation. Yeah. So no, I don't think we're going to be looking back and saying that. so i went to see fantastic four it is the biggest opening ever for one of the fantastic four movies which is not saying a lot because the previous ones were there's been so many but here's the thing uh the rare instance where two july movies opened over a hundred million dollars 2022 was the only other year in recent history.

52:24Wait, what's the other one? Superman? I guess so. Superman. Where's Jurassic? Yeah, Superman, I guess. Movie was certainly watchable. There was some, I thought some cool CGI stuff. I wonder if Fantastic Four doesn't work because it's just weird. It's like you're in an alternate universe on earth that is simultaneously in the 60s, but also in like the 2300s. there's like flying cars and futuristic stuff, but it's like Jetsons, but yeah, it's like the Jetsons. Uh, and, uh, Pedro Pascal is Reed Richards was, Reed Richards is a dork. Pedro Pascal is not a dork. And the characters felt hollow, whatever.

53:05It was fine. It was watchable. Okay. Not, not a very, but yeah, it was fine. Uh, all right. Anyway, anyway, uh, somebody emailed us about the movies. We're at the local movie complex yesterday. I see. I know what you did last summer, 7.43 rating by me. I don't buy that. This movie got horrible reviews, but, but, uh, yeah. All right. Generous review. Um, anyway, I witnessed an employee carrying a rather large bag of popcorn to the exit in a door dash bag. Was that someone door dashing popcorn? I asked. Oh yeah. Happens all the time. Oh my God. Could you imagine? So popcorn at the movies is, I don't know,$9,$12, depending on the size, whatever, maybe, maybe a little bit more.

53:44You're probably paying$25 for popcorn. $25 popcorn. Wow. We are so lazy. I mean, that is unbelievable. Because guess what? Popcorn in your microwave, while not quite as good, gets you 80 % of the way there. Yeah. And it's unbelievable. I can't imagine door dashing popcorn. All right, Ben. Continue with the theme of everything is... They're just really leaning into old titles. Meet the Parents 4 is titled Focker in Law. I'm in. De Niro, Stiller, Owen Wilson. Man, I'll watch it, but I won't be happy about it. I have thoughts for Happy Gilmore 2 in a minute. Okay. Yeah, I'm in. All right. I want to give a plug for, we're doing our first webinar for Exhibit A.

54:32So if you're a financial advisor, you've been hearing us talk about it. You're like, all right, I kind of want to check it out. We're doing one with Taylor Schulte in the second week of August, I believe. So he's an advisor to show how he's using it, right? Yeah. And we've got over 100 advisors signed up. So thank you for giving us the opportunity. Charts of the week are great. Yeah. Check it out. Exhibit A for advice.com. Right. All right. So last week, Ozzy Osbourne and Hulk Hogan both died. Right. And like when people, you know, die, it feel like whether you know them or not, or they're just celebrities.

55:05Here's something that's kind of morbid, but there are so many baby boomers. We just have to get used to this happening all the time. There's like for the next 20 years, like all the time, there's going to be people that you know or heard of in the TV show or the movie or the sporting or whatever that die. And I told this to my wife, listen, this is really morbid, but our parents are in their seventies. My dad is approaching his eighties. In the next 10 years, one of them is probably going to get really sick or die. And it's a very morbid thought, but like with the number of baby boomers, there's just going to be a lot of people that die in the years ahead.

55:38Ryan Sandberg died yesterday. Right? It's a morbid thing, but that kind of thing is just going to happen all the time now. And Michael Madsen died. Think about how long the Oscars thing is going to be in years ahead, right? So I just pulled up Michael Madsen's, this guy ruled. Do you remember that he was in Free Willy? I saw that at my birthday party in third grade. Kill Bill. Every time you think you saw a movie in grade school, you make it up. Yeah, there's a 50-50 chance that happened, but I'm pretty sure it did. No, but my son and I just watched Free Willy a couple weeks ago. I'm sure that is a ridiculous movie.

56:11very much. I know for a fact we saw Secret of the U's on my 6th birthday, I think. But Michael Madsen, what a career. Reservoir Darks, Kill Bill. I'm going to have AI go through all of our past shows and see how many times you said you saw a movie on your birthday and you didn't. Yeah, I'm sure I'm making up some of these. Alright. Can we do recommendations? Go ahead. Alright, so I watched Happy Gilmore 2. Did you watch it? I saw the first 15 minutes and then I said I think That was enough. I think you made the right. My wife said the same thing. I think it's one of those movies where your mind was already made up before you watched it.

56:45My whole thing with comedies is, would I ever watch this again? And obviously, that's a pretty low bar, but no, I wouldn't. It kind of joins the list of sequels to me that never happened. In my mind, they just never happened. Hangover 2 never happened, right? Anchorman 2, nope. Zoolander 2 never happened. Like classics. Hold on, hold on. Anchorman 2, I know we've had this conversation before. There are scenes that are laugh out loud funny. I know the movie as a whole doesn't hold the candle to the first one, but there are scenes. I've tried it like four times and I could never finish it. That's how it just.

57:16So here's the thing. So I wrote this thing about Adam Sandler in 2014 about his, how like he's just not, you can't be funny for that long because when you get that rich and famous, like you just can't and you move into a different. And the thing is, I think for him, like it was a win, even though the movie was terrible, like objectively a horrible movie, not good at all. It was, it was the biggest movie of the year. on Netflix. They I'm sure I'm sure there is a million cameos like Ben Stiller played his same part. And I thought even that maybe this would be funny. And it wasn't like I didn't even crack a smile once, but he got to make a movie with all of his friends.

57:49He got to make it with all these professional golfers. He always puts his wife and his daughter in his movies. Now for him, he gets to go on vacation and work with all these people. And so for him, it's still a win, even though objectively he's making dog shit movies now. And you know what it's Adam saying? Everyone loves him. Like, I feel like if you're, if you're a man about Happy Gilmore. No, that's the thing. I wasn't mad. Like, I understand why they did it. And to him, it was fun. It's just, it like, it never works to remake a classic comedy. The only ones that have worked are Austin Powers.

58:17Okay. Second one was good. Third one was okay. The National Lampoon movies. Naked Gun. Naked Gun 33 and a third. Hot Shots. Hot Shots Part 2. I think American Pie 2 stands up still. I think that one was funny. But it's very few and far between. It almost never works. because guess what? I don't want to know what happened with Happy Gilmore. I don't want to know what happened with the Hangover guys. After it's done, it's done. All right. We watched Warfare last night. Did you see that one? In theaters. Did I make that up too? Probably. I listened to an interview with the guy who wrote and directed it.

58:52Alex Garland? Yeah, it happened to him, right? And he tried to make it as real life as possible going off of interviews with the people who were actually there. It's about a combat mission in Iraq. and it was very well done and it felt very real. It felt like a documentary. Like it felt like you were watching Call of Duty. It was a very hard, tough watch though. Very tough watch. Very well done. Very tough. All right. I finished Stick and Day of the Jackal. I would say Stick is like a 6.6. Like entertaining. A few cheesy moments. But if you're like Owen Wilson, you'll like it. Day of the Jackal got better as it went on.

59:24I like that one. That's a thumbs up from me. Okay. All right. I think I'm sticking with this audio thing. Ben. Okay. I mentioned this last week. Did you get an audible? I did. I miss, I miss reading. I love learning. And the way that you learn new things is in books, right? That's, that's the deal. Um, but I just don't have the mental energy. I can't commit to reading books. It's just easier to zone out to an audio book though, than it is when you're actually reading. Sometimes depending on the book. So there, there are times where I zone out and I rewind 30 seconds or a minute. So I listened to Leave the Gun, Take the Cannoli, which is about the making of The Godfather.

1:00:11Now, for my audiobooks, I am always on the go. I'm always either driving or walking. I always have AirPods, and I'm always listening to something. Chopping vegetables. I know it's random, but whatever it is. I have my AirPods in a lot. So I finished that book, and it is all about - Is that one of the TV shows based on? The Offer? I don't know. I don't think so. Okay. But no, no, no. I definitely don't think so. It starts with Mario Puzo, who wrote The Godfather. By the way, he wrote that in Merrick, my hometown. Did you know that? I didn't know that. The story about him is crazy. He just made this all up in his mind.

1:00:48He didn't have any experience or - He never met a gangster. Yeah. So it was all about his journey, his ups and downs until he made this. It was a lot about the studio. Paramount, which is owned by Gulf and Western and the story behind the magnets there. Yeah, I liked the offer was good. It was way too long, but it was good. Coppola, the production, the casting, like all of the, it was awesome. And so anyway, now, naturally, so I crushed that. I'm listening to The Godfather and I just finished chapter one and whoa. It's the best book I've ever read. It's been my, or my favorite. It's my favorite book I've ever read.

1:01:25It was 750 pages or something. and absolutely, because it takes parts of Godfather 1 and 2, the movies. Oh, okay. Yeah, so there's the first one. Anyway, chapter one, I was blown away by. So I know the idea of audiobooks might sound ridiculous. It sounds like cheating. I don't care. I'm an audiobook guy now. Leave me alone. I'm a big guy who likes to read books about, like I'm reading High Fidelity right now because I rewatched the movie recently and it seems stupid and like why would you do that? But I think sometimes you get more out of the movie if you read the source material first. So reading The Godfather made the movies better for me.

1:01:57Yeah. All right. That, that'll do it. So, thank you for listening. Thank you, Duncan and John and the rest of the production team. Animal Spirits at the compound news.com. We'll see you next time.

1:02:26Thank you.