Time to Get Bearish? (EP.401)

23:22So he's saying like, yeah, it stinks we pay so much in taxes, but we look at this as like, this is a privilege. Is there anything lamer than being a Buffett hitter? He hasn't even beat the mark of the last 15 years. I don't, his legacy to me has only grown stronger in recent years. When you see how many rich and powerful people have just like degraded themselves and just look like bad people. The fact that Buffett remains a pretty darn good guy, he's not perfect. If you read his biography, he's not the perfect guy. Not the perfect family man. The personal stuff was weird. But even like, yeah, we know he's a shark.

23:56We know he's not necessarily the jolly person that he portrayed. But come on, like you could count on one hand that people, the number of investors that have done more for the average investor, just in terms of learning and communication and being steadfast and long-term and all that sort of stuff and not being an asshole about paying taxes. I think he's been a pretty good role model, even if, of course, like everybody else imperfect. Now, also, I guess you could say like the people that like worship Buffett are maybe just as odd as the people that trash him. So they paid, as you mentioned, Ben,$26 billion,$27 billion in taxes.

24:29And he said, just to conceptualize because money is sort of hard to think about at that level, if Berkshire had sent the Treasury a$1 million check every 20 minutes throughout all of 2024, so visualize 366 days and nights because 2024 was a leap year, we still would have owed the federal government a significant sum at year end. that's what 27 billion dollars is a million dollars every 20 minutes and then some so how much could you save on taxes if moved to florida what are we talking here me i don't know i'm not a taxi i don't even know what what's new york state taxes eight percent i would find it very hard to to let taxes bill bill our tax i bill always says this like don't let the tax tail wag the rest of your decision dog right i agree but we're like normal people I would say that for, if you sell a business for$60 million and you could move to Florida or you could give the government$7 million, I'm making that number up.

25:30At that level, I get it. I do get it. Now, counterpoint is like, who gives a shit if you have, you know what I mean? Like if you have so much money, who even cares? But to each their own. I do understand. Even if I think probably not what I would do, but maybe one day, who knows? Just think about how many people live in California, in New York, where taxes are very, very high. Yeah. Right? Yeah. All right. So let's talk about the stock market. So even though I mentioned like the S &P is only 2.5 % off its all-time highs, that of course never tells the full story. And looking inside the market, as I do, Ben, you don't, I do.

26:04Listen, it's not a stock market. It's a market of stocks. There is reason to be concerned and concerned. It's all relative. I'm not bearish. But there are yellow signs flashing. So for example, Bespoke tweeted, while growth of momentum stocks were in the doghouse this week. So like Reddit, crushed. Palantir, crushed. Rigatoni, all of those quantum computing stocks. Rigatoni just makes me laugh. It's a pasta. All of the momentum stocks, not all. A lot of the momentum stocks really got hammered in the past week or two. But on the other side, you have consumer stable stocks ripping. So last week, Hershey up 9.5%, Constellation Brands up 8%.

26:46James Mucker, Kraft Heinz, Montzor Beverage, Dr. Pepper, Pepsi, Clorox, all ripping. These are the type of – like that is the true flight to safety, which is probably not what you want to see in a bull market. Bespoke also tweeted, the homebuilders have had their worst four-month performance relative to the broad market since the housing financial crisis in the late 2000s. So they showed the S &P 500 performance relative to the homebuilders, and that's blowing out in the wrong way. It makes sense that homebuilders eventually had to, with mortgage rates continuing to stay higher for longer, they had to roll over eventually.

27:19And again, for me, all of this is building the wall of worry that you love to see. Now, I don't like to see anybody lose money. It never feels good to lose money. But we need this. Here's another sign that there's really not a lot of investor behavior change, at least according to this metric. So our Fred Todd Sohn, excuse me. Excuse me. You okay, Ben? You look disgusted. No. Has anyone ever been happy with someone else's sneeze before? No, of course not. Nobody's ever said, that's a great sneeze, man. Great sneeze. I really love your style of sneeze. Nobody looks good sneezing, not even George Clooney.

28:00Okay. He has a chart showing Levered Long versus Inverse ETFs AUM. and levered long is still going straight up to the right. And there's a little bit, a little bit of money coming into the inverse one. So Todd says a reversion to the mean for levered long and inverse assets would go a long way to easing excess in the market. And I would agree with him. It is interesting how they really close the gap during bear markets. Yeah. That people really hop into those inverse. Probably at the wrong time though, don't you think? People, they peak right at the bottom basically. Yep. Which you don't know in advance.

28:36Oh, all right. Good one on Robin Hood I saw the other day. So this is not a novel take, but Robin Hood is essentially a casino now. So this is, Robin Hood posted this from their latest quarterly call. I'm a little behind here, but I just am catching up on stuff. Credit to Robin Hood. I go through a lot of quarterly calls, not to brag, and they easily, easily have one of the cleanest, prettiest decks that tell the best story. Like there's not a lot of footnotes, what's going on here. It's just, it's boom. It's very self-explanatory credit to them. So they looked at their transaction-based revenues, and it was up 200 % year over year to a record in Q4.

29:11So they knocked it out of the park. But they break it out by equities, options, crypto, and other. And equities are less than 10%. They make less than 10 % of their transaction-based revenue on equities. It's almost all crypto. So, you know, 40 % or so is crypto, or more than 50 % is crypto. And then, I don't know, looks like the other 40 % or so, 30 % is options. They make all of their money on crypto and options. Not much on stocks. I mean, credit to them for like leaning into the degenerate economy or whatever you want to call it. But they started out being a stock market, like stock market trading app, right?

29:49And they are not that anymore. At all. So what do they make? Do they just have really wide spreads on the crypto trades? Is that it? I think I did notice that when I sold my Bitcoin that the spread was very wide. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. I still can't get my crypto out of Robinhood, by the way. So I know I wimped out and just sold half of my Bitcoin. So Bitcoin's under$90 ,000 now. I don't know, it's$88 ,000 or something. That's had a pretty good plunge with almost 20 % downturn. Do I have to wait until it gets like$75 ,000 to claim victory for selling or not? Or do I have to wait longer? I want to just know when does the victory lap get to take place for me for selling at$100 ,000?

30:30Well, it depends what the future holds. Because if it goes back to$150 ,000, is that lap negated? It depends if I buy anymore. All right, let's talk about crypto for a second. So these are the tailwinds for crypto at the moment. The SEC just dropped their case against Coinbase. Same thing with Robinhood. There's more deregulation coming. There's the potential, I don't know if it's nonsense or not, but the potential for the Bitcoin Reserve. But did the SEC case against Coinbase matter, though? Just deregulation. I mean, they would have paid a fine. I don't know. Not specifically. Just the whole mosaic, the tailwinds for crypto.

31:03You have crazy inflows, right? Crazy inflows. And yet, and yet, and yet, Bitcoin is 18 % off the highs. You had Sam Bankman-Fried tweeting weird shit last night about Doge. I don't know what's happening there. And I say this not to dunk, not as a hater. How does he post from Twitter? I have no idea. From prison. You can do that? I have no idea. I have a healthy Bitcoin allocation, so this is definitely not a dunk. But I will say this. If you are one of these people who over the last couple of months felt FOMO and didn't own any Bitcoin and you're not buying now, never buy Bitcoin. Yeah. Don't be one of those people who asks, why didn't I buy it at 100?

31:49But now you won't buy it when it's back in the 80s. Like I said, if you wanted to buy and you felt like you missed it and you're not buying now, do not buy at higher prices because Bitcoin is on sale. And whether it goes low from here, who the hell knows. But I would say that, again, given the bullish backdrop on news and the fact that the price is breaking down, if you're a Bitcoin bull, not what you want to say. Not what you want to say. All right, I want to talk about AI for a second. Tyler Cohen at Marginal Revolution had a really good piece about why he thinks the AI takeoff is relatively slow.

32:24Because people keep saying it's amazing how great these models are. Why aren't more people using them yet? And he says, this is what I thought was good. Human bottlenecks become more important the more productive AI is. Let's say AI increases the rate of good pharma ideas by 10 times. Well, until the FDA gets stacked together, the relevant constraint is the rate of drug approval, not the rate of drug discovery. And I do think humans are going to be the, like will people start adopting these and using. I think that human bottleneck is interesting. So I've started using IAMR. I found my own my favorite use case so far and I use it occasionally so I don't know if I told you this I've been working on a book for like a year and I needed to give myself a time constraint how is it possible that you've been working on a book for a year and you never told me I told you this what's it called I don't have a title yet what's it about Bitcoin it's a book on the long term I'm thinking about calling it the big long but I don't know if that's too cute we'll see what people think and so i'm writing the book and then i i talked to seth godin a few months ago and he said every chapter in my book that i wrote i uploaded it into one of these large language models and i asked for feedback and he said it was actually pretty helpful for me it didn't like rewrite the whole book but it gave me it helped me fill the holes and so i decided to do this so i finished a chapter and i upload it to chat gpt or claud or any of these i've been using them all just to try it out.

33:47And the feedback is instantaneous. That's the craziest thing to me, is how quickly it happens. Here's this 2 ,500 words from a chapter, and here's instantaneous feedback. Your tone changes from this paragraph to this paragraph. Your stories are really good here, but you need to add a little more meat to the bone. All this stuff, and the feedback is actually relatively helpful. Now, here's what I noticed, though. I wonder if part of it is a parlor trick because I did the first chapter and I was blown away. I could not believe how good the feedback was. I need to add more here. I need to have a better transition here.

34:20I need to have a better concluding thought here. But then I uploaded another chapter and it basically told me the same thing. And then I did another chapter and it kind of told me the same thing again. And I wonder if it's kind of just a parlor trick. Well, but what if your deficiencies were the same for each chapter? It's probably, but the thing is, the way I look at it is if it gives me two good pieces of feedback that, oh, you know what, you're right, I need to put, I need to have this transition be better, or I need to have a better title here, whatever it is, if I can get one or two little pieces from it, then it's worth it for me.

34:51And it's actually been very helpful. I've changed total, the way the chapter looks, I move this from the bottom to the top, and because of what the AI says, so it's actually very helpful to get this feedback. My one thing is, I'm thinking about the human bottlenecks. What are people going to do when the AI tells them something that they don't like or don't agree with? Meaning? What do you mean? Are they going to keep using it? I don't know. If it just, if it offers opinions that, that like, you can't take constructive criticism or whatever it is, are you still going to use those if it offers you stuff that you don't like to hear?

35:21So your main use case for now is editing? Yes. Are you doing that for blog posts too or just for the book? I have not used it for blog posts yet. What are you doing with the book? Are you self-publishing? No. I signed with a publisher with Harriman House, Craig and the team there. so I'm working on it but yeah I needed to put I needed a deadline so I actually forced myself to finish it all right so yeah I'm using AMR all right this is from Redfin real estate gains in 2024 this is interesting so they said the combined value of US homes gained 2.5 trillion dollars in 2024 to reach 49.7 trillion I think you and I had talked a bunch of times during the last couple years like what are housing gains going to be so they said in 2024 housing was up 5.2 % Pretty good gain again, which no one would have believed if you would have told them in 2021, mortgage rates are going to be 7 % like the whole year and housing is still going to gain 5%.

36:14Right, right. They also showed millennials now own more than 20 % of the U.S. home market with their generation's total home value rising 18.8 % year over year to$9.7 trillion in the third quarter. So millennials are making up some ground very fast on these older generations. And so I know it seems like young people can't afford to buy anything these days, but young people are getting into the housing market at a very fast clip. And millennials will be the biggest homeowners in due time. I know that we've spoken about this before. What's the stat on how many, what percent of millennials are getting assistance from their parents?

36:50Do we have that number? I don't remember exactly. Sounds all right. I don't know how people buy a house right now without help. I don't either. I don't either. Like where, where is somebody getting$250 ,000 down payment or that's high$150 ,000 down payment and then seven grand a month? Yeah. The old budget thing was people are spending 30 % of their money on housing and now it's probably 50 % or 60%. I think it's, I think that's part of it. Yeah. The math can't work. The math can't math forever. Everything is just going to that. Well, one of the things that I do want, somebody, somebody said this, this is not my take, but like maybe we were thinking that trump cares about the s &p 500 but what he really cares about is long-term interest rates okay but the funny thing is is mortgage rates haven't fallen that much they're still 6.8 percent or something yeah they fall a little not a lot well the spread hasn't the spread has not come down at all that's what i i said in our slack channel the other day i think the fed should be buying mortgage bonds i've been saying this for a while now and it sounds really stupid because the last time they did it really messed up the market but what else do they need to do to get the spread to fall on those?

37:57I don't know what else can be done. What's a bigger threat that we continue to, the market continues to do what it's doing, which is nothing fast, or the Fed starts buying mortgage bonds? And I don't know enough about the mechanics to know cause, effect, impact, all that sort of stuff. But let's just assume that it's that easy that they start buying mortgage bonds and spreads go from 150 basis points down to 70 or whatever. is there a danger that the housing market would start to reheat and inflation would reaccelerate i feel like the the first scenario is more is more dangerous yeah i agree that keeping it this high is is difficult for a lot of people and it slows future building right it's going to make inflation worse in the future i don't you think the fed could get spreads to contract by simply saying if if these spreads don't come down soon we're going to buy mortgage bonds.

38:53I think the spread would narrow immediately if they just said something. They don't even have to do it. So I subscribed to a sub stack, this guy Scott Mendelsohn, who writes about the movie industry. And he was talking about Brave New World. Did you take George to see that? Brave, that the Disney movie? That's the Captain America one. Oh, no. Okay. Supposed to be really bad. For some reason, he's not a big Avengers Marvel guy. Okay. You know we spoke about this last week, like our ability to ascertain whether movies can be good or bad from the trailer. And I said, I don't watch trailers, which of course is not accurate because every time I'm in a theater, all you see is trailers.

39:34So, but, but, but here's, this is what I prefer. I saw, so I follow a Twitter feed called bloody disgusting. And they tweeted Kevin Bacon stars and prime videos, action horror series, the bondsman. As a bounty hunter who gets a second chance at life by tracking down demons who've escaped from hell. See, I could tell that's going to be trash. All I need is two sentences. Tracking down demons, Kevin Bacon, that's what he's doing, who've escaped from hell. Sorry, out. Yeah. Right? I don't need to try that for that. I'm out. All the way out. Okay. Anyhow. So Scott Mendelsohn says, before the summer of 2021, there had never been an MCU movie that dropped more than 62.2 % in its second weekend.

40:23So what they're looking at is the number of people that went for the first weekend versus the drop-off for the second weekend. He says that Brave New World is the eighth such movie in three and a half years, joining Black Widow, Eternals, Spider-Man No Way Home, Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness, Thor Love and Thunder, Ant-Man and the Wasp Quantumania, and the Marvels. Holy shit, what a slate of bombs. Is Marvel like cooked? Are we done? Isn't this like Josh's theory on SPACs? Like the thing that upended SPACs is just so much supply hit the market. It's the same thing with Marvel movies.

40:54So I think until we like get a new X-Men, like these secondary and tertiary characters, done, no more, please. It's enough. It's enough. Nobody wants it. This is a mirror market I'm fine with. Yeah, I'm fine. Yeah. We got two emails like this. Michael's TV, read the Samsung logo on a Sony TV. If it's a QD OLED Sony TV, the panel inside is made by Samsung display. The image processing and power supplies are made by Sony. It's possible that if it froze, the panel could be in a weird mode that would show a Samsung logo. Thank you, internet. Or listener. So is this kind of like how a Lexus is basically a Toyota?

41:29Like Sony and Samsung are kind of the same thing? You know, like a Lexus and a Toyota, it's basically the same thing. They just make it a little nicer? Yeah. Okay. So that's the deal with your TV. I was thinking about, so my car, I took the Jeep Wrangler to get the puppy. It was a three-hour drive and it was not a pleasant drive. I was thinking about what my next car is going to be. And I was thinking, should I just get a Toyota Corolla? but I need an SUV. So. Because of the kids. On the one hand, I'm tempted to like go all the way to the top end. But on the other hand, I think I'm just going to get a Toyota.

42:01Toyota what? I'm going to say just. Those are great cars. A Toyota SUV. I don't know. Okay. Something reliable. Old reliable. Know what I mean? Makes sense to me. All right, Ben. I'm going to Memphis on Friday night to watch the Knicks play the Memphis Grizzlies. For our 40th birthdays, my friend said, let's go to the Knicks game. One of our friends is a hustler, not a swindler, but he's very good at navigating. And he was able to somehow procure courtside seats, like literally on the floor, next to the scorer's table. So I'm going to be wearing my bright orange Knicks hoodie so I'll be featured prominently.

42:48on television. So you're going to eat barbecue and go to the Knicks game for your 40th? Yeah. I have to take a flight the next morning. Robin's like, you idiot. Kobe's birthday party's on Saturday. How many times do I have to tell you? Why do you do this every year? So my flight was supposed to land at 3 o 'clock. His party's at 3.30. So I sat there. Does he really need me at the party? Just kidding. So I'm taking a flight the next morning at 7 o 'clock, but I discovered, I didn't discover, it's Memphis is central time. And I got to be honest, I think this might surprise the listeners, especially Mr.

43:22Troglodyte. I'm actually pretty good at US geography. Okay. I'm pretty good, but I was surprised. I was surprised. Maybe I'm telling myself to learn, relearn. I forgot. It's been a while since I looked at the US map. A lot of my US mapmanship is from eight years old. Look how far West Tennessee is. It's central time. How are you Eastern time? People in New York always find it hard to believe that Michigan is still eastern. We're the furthest west you can go pretty much. You know that John Denver is full of shit, man. That's what I think about Michigan. You're not Midwest. You're Mideast. It is weird because you drive down to Chicago, which is not that much further west than Grand Rapids, and it's in central.

44:01It doesn't seem to make any sense. I always felt like Illinois and Indiana should be flip-flopped. Here's the thing I didn't realize, though. Some of these, like half of Nebraska is mountain and half of it central. I didn't know that you could break it up by state. I thought it would be the whole state. Oh, wow. So, anyhow, I have to wake up at 3.30 Central time, which is already an hour earlier. In the morning? Well, my flight's at 7. Oh, my God. Skip the game, man. Skip the game? I'm just kidding. This guy should skip his birthday party. Or just don't go to bed. This is the only time in my life I will have the opportunity to sit courtside because the prices in Memphis are significantly different, obviously, than in New York.

44:44Okay, story time. Go ahead. So my big thing as a parent, I might have mentioned this before, I tell my kids, because you cannot teach talent when it comes to youth sports or any sports, right? Like you go to some games and you go, this kid is bigger, faster, stronger than all the other kids. You just tell. It doesn't matter how much you practice, you're never gonna be as good as that kid. Yep. So I just tell my kids the only two things I care about. I care about having fun and trying your best. If you don't try your best, then that's the only time I really get disappointed. So my daughter had a game last Thursday.

45:12She hadn't had a game in a while. It had been like a little rust maybe, winter break, and just wasn't indoor soccer, wasn't trying at all. And she's our littlest daughter. And we always thought she'd be the cheerleader, the princess, because she first started playing soccer at age four, and she was one of those kids that was scared of the ball. And after one year of playing, she said, I'm done. I don't want to play soccer. And we said, fine. You don't seem to be that into it. But then she watched her older sister play, and I think she realized, like, oh, this is what soccer is? And then she came back like two years later and said, I want to play.

45:40and she goes out there and she's aggressive and like the first game she's back she scores like seven goals and i'm not saying this like brag as a parent but she like she something something's you know switch flipped in her so we go to her game the other day on thursday night i believe it is and just the effort's not there she's standing around she's not running and my wife and i are kind of outwilling each other like what's going on here she's she's not she's usually really aggressive and she just is not playing hard she's not trying she's just a dud and so after the game I said, all right, this is a teaching moment.

46:11I said, did you do the two things that I always ask of you? Did you have fun or did you try your best? She said, well, I think so. And I said, I don't think, I'm thinking to myself, I'm being a good parent here because I'm teaching her a lesson. Every time we go on the field, we try our hardest. She didn't make any excuses. She got kind of mad that I even brought it up. Whatever, we get home. She goes to bed because it was late. Ten minutes after going to bed, she walks downstairs and says, I threw up everywhere. And it turns out she wasn't trying very hard because she was very sick. So I felt about this small.

46:41And it turns out the reason she goes, you know, I did kind of have a stomachache during the game. I said, yeah, obviously. She puked. She proceeded to puke all night. Some sort of norovirus. And I realized this is what parents every year say this. Like, man, something is going around, huh? But this time it really is. This is what you say to the school. It really is. So she threw up. This is one of those pukes where you just throw the comforter and the sheets in the trash. Yeah. There's no even try to. And then the next night, my son got it. and then I got it. So that was a fun weekend. It just whipped through our house.

47:13You called me yesterday. You sounded dead. I haven't had one of those days since I first got COVID, which was like five years ago, where I had to spend all day in bed yesterday. I feel better today, but I needed a day and I haven't had that. Usually if I'm a little sick, I'm fine. I can still continue to work. Yesterday, I had nothing. Yesterday at Kobe's basketball practice, one of the boys hit a shot and did one of these, the double middle finger. What? And I immediately texted Rob and Mike, how could these boys are seven and eight? How is it possible that parents, a lot of parents, not unique to this person, just like tolerate that behavior?

47:58Kids definitely these days have more, bigger celebrations than they had in the past. Like I see kids all the time, if they score, they like flex their muscles, you know? And they do a lot more of the celebrity. Yeah, I get that. But like the middle finger? That's pretty bad. I've never seen anyone do that in the NBA even. They'd probably get fined, wouldn't they? All right, Ben. We were supposed to put together our top 10 list of TV shows. I assume you didn't do it because of the neurovirus. I didn't do it either, giving you the courtesy. I did it. Oh, you did? All right, can we regroup for next week?

48:31All right, yes. I actually, yes, I did it. All right, my bad. I should have asked. The tiers. I had the top tier, the maybe, and then trailed off and didn't make it. Okay. So I'm watching Zero Day on Netflix. It's a limited series, which that's right up my alley. I prefer one season to two for most shows. For example, the show Paradise on Hulu, I'm really enjoying it. It's a really fun show. I don't need a second season. It got renewed. Yeah, I agree. We watched a few episodes. It seems like it could be a one-season kind of show. So anyway, so the limited series, Zero Day, it's with Bobby D. It's with GLP-1, Jesse Plemons.

49:14Are you watching this at all? No. He's super skinny. Oh, GLP-1, Jesse Plemons. Okay, gotcha. I was talking to my dad about it, and he said, oh, I heard it was awful. I said, really? And then I went online, and yeah, reviews are pretty bad. I got to say, I don't get it. It's not, it's like a, it's a, it's an espionage, spy, hacker attack, uh, which is my type of show. And I'm, I'm enjoying it. Although, but now the better views are in the back of my head. Like, am I enjoying it? No, I am enjoying it. I like it. 54 % on Rotten Tomatoes. Okay. Uh, here's the thing though, for our TV list, you can't have a mini series count as a TV show though.

49:53A mini series is essentially a movie to me. Ooh. So you can't include Band of Brothers, your favorite show ever. No. Can't include Chernobyl. Nothing like that. You can't include a one-season show in the best TV shows of all time. Okay. Okay, fair enough. Anyway, so Zero Day. I'm enjoying it. So you think it's okay? Okay, all right. Yeah, it's six episodes. It's Robert De Niro, you know? All right, I'll try it. And Court of Gold, another documentary. I guess it's six episodes too about the Olympics. And not just the U.S. Like it covers Serbia and France. And it was so good. watched it with Kobe.

50:30He loved it. The last, I mean, the Serbian game was great, but the French game where Steph just went nuclear was incredible. So much fun. I've been watching a ton of new stuff. I continue to watch White Lotus. The way that they, I don't know if you watched the new one yet. The three women, the way that they talk shit about each other behind their back is just so perfect. It's so good. It's so, that gets me. Someone emailed in and said, hey, I gave this movie to you and you never watched it or you never mentioned it. So I decided to try it last week and it was on Paramount. It's called Together Together with Ed Helms.

51:12And I didn't recognize the female lead, but I thought she was pretty good. You love Ed Helms. Who doesn't? But you really do. I do like Ed Helms. It's a movie about a guy. Hold on, hold on, hold on. All right. A young loner, excuse me, a young loner becomes a surrogate mother for a single middle-aged man who wants a child. Their unexpected relationship soon challenges their perceptions of connection, boundaries, and the particulars of love. Yeah, that sounds like a bad movie. Definitely a bad movie. And it's the kind of movie that could have been very cheesy and over the top, but it was very subtle and understated.

51:46And I didn't love the ending, but it was a good sort of touching movie. Very well done. Okay. Not for me or what do you think? No, not for you. Okay. That's about all I got. Okay. We good? Mm-hmm. All right. Again, thank you everybody for the outpouring of support for Ben. It really was incredible. Very touching. Inbox a mile long. Animal Spirits at thecompoundnews.com. We'll see you next time.

52:22Bye.