Is It Safe to Train When the Air Is Full of Wildfire Smoke?

24 Sep 2026 · 37 min · 20 chapters

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In short

Whether exercise is safe when wildfire smoke makes PM2.5 high; how to interpret “effective reps” (RIR/hard sets/fractional sets) for hypertrophy and strength.

Guests

Dr. Jordan Weigenbaum (host; Barbell Medicine) and Dr. Austin Baraki (co-host; clinician/researcher discussing COPD/asthma exacerbations and training theory).

Key claims (wildfire smoke)

PM2.5 is tiny (<2.5 microns) and can reach deep airways/blood. Evidence suggests exercise benefits persist even as air quality worsens; AQI ~80 (≈25 µg/m³) halves benefits, but no clear point where exercise becomes harmful. Indoor helps but smoke can still penetrate (filtering doesn’t fully prevent exposure). For vulnerable people (asthma/COPD/CV disease), prioritize indoor exercise and individualize; short-term training breaks are usually low risk, but adherence matters.

Notable examples

BMC Medicine cohort (~1.5M adults, ~12 years) showing mortality reduction even up to ~50 µg/m³; modeling studies of commuters switching activity on high-pollution days; Scripps admissions data (wildfire increases respiratory admissions more than city pollution).

Key claims (effective reps)

“Hard sets” defined as within ~5 RIR; fractional sets for indirect muscles. They argue the effective reps model shouldn’t be treated as a strict cutoff. Meta-regression (2024) suggests growth benefits are continuous from failure to far from failure; indirect muscles still get non-zero stimulus (half best fitting). Practical guidance: hypertrophy often around RPE 7–9; strength around RPE 4–6, with individual variation and consistency outweighing obsessing over exact RIR.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Training in Wildfire Smoke

0:03 to 1:07

Discussion about the effects of training in wildfire smoke and air quality.

“Specifically, I started with their interval short, and I've worn them for everything.”

Training in Wildfire Smoke

1:26 to 2:51

Discussion about the effects of training in wildfire smoke and air quality.

“And the question is whether the air quality gets bad enough that the workout causes more harm than good.”

Understanding PM 2.5 and Its Effects

2:51 to 3:56

Explaining PM 2.5, its measurement, and health implications.

“The question is, we're entering into the part of the year where some parts of the country are impacted by wildfire smoke and sometimes for weeks at a time.”

Research on Exercise and Air Quality

3:56 to 4:52

Examining studies that relate exercise benefits to varying air quality levels.

“That's small enough to slip past your nose and your throat.”

Health Concerns from Inhalation

4:52 to 6:05

Health risks associated with inhaling particulate matter from wildfires.

“basically because, again, it's an average.”

Impact of Air Quality on Exercise Benefits

6:05 to 7:20

Discussion on how air quality affects the benefits of exercise.

“when somebody's breathing in air like this?”

Long-Term Risks of Wildfire Smoke Exposure

7:20 to 8:14

Exploring the long-term health risks from chronic exposure to wildfire smoke.

“So people who already have baseline COPD or emphysema, chronic bronchitis, asthma, other sorts of lung diseases.”

Tipping Points for Safe Exercise

8:14 to 9:20

Identifying when exercise becomes harmful due to air quality.

“And then there's almost certainly going to be some cardiovascular risks as well.”

Data-Driven Insights on Exercise and Pollution

9:20 to 10:25

Reviewing data on exercise and pollution impacts from various studies.

“but you can also have things like hypersensitivity pneumonitis, basically a massive allergic reaction in the lungs.”

Conclusion on Exercise During Poor Air Quality

10:25 to 12:00

Wrapping up thoughts on exercising during wildfire smoke conditions.

“We just don't have any evidence that exercise ever becomes harmful in a particular environment.”
Show all 20 chapters

Training Considerations in Wildfire Smoke

14:00 to 19:35

Explore how outdoor training is impacted by wildfire smoke and health considerations.

“is that I would favor exercise like the majority of the time.”

Training Considerations in Wildfire Smoke

21:44 to 22:52

Explore how outdoor training is impacted by wildfire smoke and health considerations.

“Before the 1920s, pretty much everything in the operating room was white.”

Understanding Reps in Reserve and Muscle Growth

24:10 to 28:00

Dive deep into the relationship between reps in reserve and muscle hypertrophy.

“Before the 1920s, pretty much everything in the operating room was white.”

Effective Reps Model Analysis

28:00 to 29:15

Discussion on the effective reps model and its implications for training.

“the authors tagged each set as direct or indirect for the muscle being measured for growth.”

Training Strategies: RIR vs. Failure

29:15 to 31:09

Exploration of training strategies between reps in reserve and training to failure.

“which we think is somewhere around in the 60 % to 70 % of a one rep max range.”

Individual Differences in Training Response

31:09 to 33:55

Delving into how individual responses to training differ and affect outcomes.

“And so there are going to be edge cases, but that's at least my preference, my bias here.”

Balancing Fatigue and Growth

33:55 to 35:12

The balance between training intensity, fatigue, and muscle growth.

“I think for hypertrophy, the closer you get to failure, there's a gradient sort of like where you get more and more growth.”

The Case for Consistency Over Perfection

35:12 to 37:55

Arguing that consistency in training is more important than perfect form.

“I'm like, all right, look, hypertrophy somewhere in that sort of seven to nine range is where I would land, particularly for machines, dumbbells, other things.”

Challenges in Measuring Training Load

37:55 to 41:30

Discussion on the difficulties of quantifying internal load in strength training.

“They might demonstrate or illustrate or experience that, hey, I do way better with doing a couple heavy sets of three, and I don't do nearly as well with higher reps.”

Discussion Preview and Subscription Benefits

42:07 to 42:19

Learn about the upcoming topics and benefits of subscribing to Barbell Medicine Plus.

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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00This podcast is brought to you by 10 ,000. I was super excited to learn that 10 ,000 wanted to sponsor our podcast, mostly because I've been buying their stuff for a long time now. Specifically, I started with their interval short, and I've worn them for everything. While I lift, while I run, because I'm trying to be a hybrid athlete when I'm practicing golf in the backyard, or when I'm running errands. These things go everywhere. The fit is what I noticed first. These things are awesome. And then it was the pockets. I can fit everything in there, my phone, my keys, my wallet, and they don't bounce around.

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1:0410 ,000, built for however you train. Welcome back to the Barbell Medicine Podcast. I'm Dr. Jordan Weigenbaum, and what you're about to hear is a free preview of the direct line, our monthly Ask Us Anything for our Barbell Medicine Plus subscribers. We had about a dozen questions this month, and we're going to talk about two here. The first one is on training in wildfire smoke. And depending on where you live, that could be a few weeks out of the year where you're exposed to wildfire smoke. And the question is whether the air quality gets bad enough that the workout causes more harm than good.

1:36There's some new data on that, so we're going to talk about it. And the second question is about the effective reps model and the idea that only hard sets count towards your gains. But that doesn't really square with the fractional sets idea. So it goes something like this. If a set only counts when you're within five repetitions of failure, then the triceps contribution in a heavy ventress shouldn't count. But if you're going to count that as a fractional set for the triceps, then a warm-up set should count for the chest. Both of those things can't be true, so we're going to argue about it. And with me, as always, is the second most handsome doctor in North America, Dr.

2:11Austin Baraki. What's going on, man? Again, you're really setting out some ambitious goals for the collective us today to tackle all of these things. Well, you know, I think when I was writing, I tried to write a little something funny, you know, to introduce you because it brings me great pleasure and I only have so many creative outlets. In my head, the way that you answer all of this, you know, how should I rely on the air quality app? What do I think about a steroid taper? What do I think about the effective reps? I don't care. I'm kidding. You probably care about the steroid taper more than any of that.

2:46Yeah, fair enough. All right. Well, let's get into it. Okay. The question is, we're entering into the part of the year where some parts of the country are impacted by wildfire smoke and sometimes for weeks at a time. I understand that exercise reduces health risks and PM 2.5, that's particulate matter 2.5, we'll talk about that, raise health risks. Is there some crossover point above which a workout does net harm from a performance and health point of view? Am I right in saying that the crossover point for lifting and aerobic exercise are different since I usually lift indoors and don't breathe this heavily?

3:20I'm aware of the Taneo paper, but I'm not used to interpreting that sort of literature. I think that makes three of us on this. Now, we do have some expertise in interpreting research and applying it clinically. So, you know, we have a good, I call it a pinball machine of sort of like orientation. You try to find different, those little, I don't know what they're called in the pinball machine on the way down where the ball hits and you're like, oh, that trips me up. I need to figure out if that's legit or not, but we'll see if we can get you an answer here. So we're starting with the PM 2.5. This is any particle in the air smaller than two and a half microns across.

3:56That's small enough to slip past your nose and your throat. So it goes deep into the small airways and into your blood. That's what we think. It's measured by weight, micrograms per cubic meter of air. So on a clean day, that number is usually in the single digits around five, but wildfire smoke can push it up to 100, sometimes past 150. Now, that is different from what's on like the weather app, the AQI or air quality index. It takes the concentration and puts it into a zero to 500 scale. So every different pollutant reads out on one kind of scale. Less than 50 is green, good air. 50 to 100 is yellow, moderate, and above that it gets worse.

4:35Now, these are all 24-hour averages, the green, yellow, orange. So now cast is usually what's used on the phone. That's weighted towards the last few hours. So if like smoke is rolling in, for example, the app can read meaningfully lower than what you're seeing, basically because, again, it's an average. The Taneo paper he talks about, this is from 2016. This has been out, obviously, for 10 years now. Now, this is a modeling paper. So it's a simulation of years of city commuting, not like a heavy smoke day from wildfire. Again, it's mostly city pollutants. Its own authors say that short spikes weren't even modeled here.

5:13So this is more like a framework type paper. They took a curve for how much exercise helps you and a curve for how much particulate matter hurts you. They plugged in some assumed breathing rates for each sort of situation and calculated exposure. They predicted that 90 minutes a day of cycling at 100 micrograms per cubic meter is the tipping point. Now, it's worth knowing that the paper states the number three different ways. The abstract says an hour and a half. The discussion says an hour and 15. And the author's own follow-up review paper says just more than an hour. So 90 minutes is the highest one that they list, but it's hard to feel confident whether it's an hour and a half or it's an hour and 15 or just above an hour.

5:51So effectively, it had to be really like a wildfire kind of exposure for 90 minutes. This is a modeling paper. But again, it's from city particulate matter, which is maybe different. We'll get to that. Austin, before we get to those numbers, what sort of health concerns do you have, generally speaking, when somebody's breathing in air like this? Yeah, so some of the specifics are definitely outside of my realm of expertise, but breathing in particulate matter in general starts to raise concerns in a few different realms. There is some variation depending on the type of particulate matter that is being inhaled.

6:27And so in wildfires, I suspect that it is going to be a bit more of this kind of fine particular matter that is from like, we'll call it organic materials like trees and forests and things like that. That is to be contrasted with inhalation of non-organic types of like compounds from mineral dusts and things like that. So like you might remember from going through med school, you get test questions about like sandblasters and like the types of lung issues that they get. Those are called pneumoconiosis, these kind of fibrosing sort of lung diseases that come from inhaling different types of particles, those sorts of inorganic kind of mineral dusts and things like that.

7:08So here it's a little bit more what I suspect is like organic material, things like that. And so the health concerns that I'm concerned with can be broken down into those affecting people with pre-existing lung disease and or cardiovascular disease. So people who already have baseline COPD or emphysema, chronic bronchitis, asthma, other sorts of lung diseases. Because those are the types of people that I see much more frequently when these types of things happen. Because I end up admitting them to the hospital more often for exacerbations of their COPD and asthma and things like that. Separate from that is what is the impact on them?

7:41that's like a short-term impact on a vulnerable population. The others would be what would be long-term impacts on people who have like healthy lungs at baseline. That is not probably as well characterized. I suspect that there is an increased risk of developing some of these chronic lung diseases. There is certainly, we know from inhaling things like even from cigarette smoke, an increased risk of carcinogenesis and things like that. I suspect that it would take quite a lot of chronic exposure to wildfires to deliver a similar kind of dose, a cumulative dose exposure to increase that risk to a substantial degree.

8:15And then there's almost certainly going to be some cardiovascular risks as well. So those are kind of like the big picture breakdowns that I have is like, what is the nature of the material that is being inhaled? How vulnerable is the person from a pulmonary and a cardiac standpoint? And then what's the cumulative exposure that we're talking about here? Would it be fair to say that most of these like particulate matter inhalation type issues you're worried about are due to some sort of reactivity at the level of the lungs, whether it's like very acute causing like bronchospasm or like just general injury and then inflammation and subsequent decreased function.

8:52Is that really the nature of this at its core? Yeah, I mean, the lungs are essentially exposed to the environment, you know, in the same way that our skin and our GI tract are organs that are essentially wide open to the external environment, our lungs are as well. So it's no coincidence that they are a frequent site of pathology, of infection, of inflammation. There's tons of immune activity happening in the lungs. So you're right that something can very abruptly cause like a reactive, you know, bronchospastic sort of process, but you can also have things like hypersensitivity pneumonitis, basically a massive allergic reaction in the lungs.

9:25We saw this type of thing happen, for example, when like vaping started to get really popular. There was that like, you know, e-cigarette associated, or vaping-induced lung injury and things like that. So inhaling what we'll call foreign substances into the lungs can trigger a variety of responses. And the nature of that response will, again, depend on the host, the person, and their kind of genetic predisposition, their allergic or atopic predisposition, as well as what is the nature of the material that's being inhaled and what is the dose that they're being exposed to. I think that those are all of the different things that might influence what sort of reactive kind of process happens, how abrupt it is versus how chronic it is, the likelihood of developing cancer over very long periods of time and things like that with persistent exposure.

10:08Yeah, yeah, well said. Okay, well, the best evidence we have here is that this, we'll call it dirty air, blunts the benefits of exercise, but we can't really see a point where, or a tipping point where it erases it. And the AQI, air quality index of 80, is where the benefit roughly halves. We just don't have any evidence that exercise ever becomes harmful in a particular environment. So this is a study in BMC Medicine from last year. They took seven separate groups of people already followed for years and then combined them. About a million and a half adults with a median 12 years of follow-up.

10:42Below 25 micrograms a year, which is an AQI of about 80, so basically Los Angeles, hitting the exercise guidelines cut all-cause mortality by about 30%. Above that, in a city worse than LA on average, meeting the same guidelines still helped, but the benefit was roughly cut in half down to around 12 to 15 % in reduction of all-cause mortality. Now the data we have here runs up to a dose of 50 micrograms, which would be an AQI of 137, and it's still protective there. Wildfires are kind of around 100, but obviously it depends on the nature and size and your proximity to the fire, all these things can change.

11:16Still, in all seven groups that were followed, exercise still tracked with living longer, so some benefit. A few caveats. This data set relies heavily on this sort of Taiwanese cohort. There are two big studies there. The other studies didn't really show a separation here, including Hong Kong, which has worse air quality. But still, there's no real drop-off there either. Just really couldn't parse what was going on here. There's another study that modeled six cities, Helsinki, London, Sao Paulo, Warsaw, Beijing, and New Delhi, and asked what happens if active commuters switch to transit or work from home on high pollution days.

11:52The idea is, oh, reduced exposure. or this should probably show a benefit. So they tested it. Restricting these folks didn't lower mortality in a single one of those groups. In Beijing and Delhi, mortality actually went up from the reduced activity. At least that's what the models was intending to show. And again, this is a model. It's mostly about commuting, not training, doing like intervals or anything like that. But it is one of the only studies here that actually asks whether, hey, is it a higher risk to do the exercise versus not? Now he's also right on the lifting here, the breathing rate, which we sometimes call minute ventilation, the total volume of air that you move in and out in a minute, generally is lower with lifting.

12:29So at rest, you exchange about 10 liters per minute, walking's 23, cycling's 43. Researchers, when they have people do lifting, it's closer to walking than cycling. It was a pretty interesting study. What they did is they had people, both healthy individuals and folks with COPD, they had them do sets of 10 with 40 % of their max, leg extension as I recall and then again at 80 % of their max and the breathing like did not increase the effort increased right but their breathing rate and everything else didn't so and I thought it was interesting that they also included COPD's pretty elegant study there because you're like well look if there's a vulnerable population it's going to be somebody with a lung disease I think again a caveat here is that well they didn't look at circuit training and they didn't look at high rep sets and when you do look at that that does start to look more like conditioning, higher, higher, sort of minute ventilation, which is what you would expect.

13:23And again, this is like a single snapshot in time. Nobody's like, okay, well, look, they did this during wildfires and like, what happened? So we don't have really have clinical outcomes there. I suspect that, you know, most people would intuit that indoors is better. And we would agree with that. You have some barriers in place, but during the count, some California wildfires, researchers looked at over a thousand buildings during this time. and even with people being indoors and there's filtering, indoor particulate matter still nearly tripled basically because the outdoor air got so much worse that it still came in.

13:57So where I kind of end up here is that I would favor exercise like the majority of the time. It'd have to be pretty bad outside such that you may be considering like, should we get out of here? Because like things are real bad. Yeah. I suspect the benefit to health would shrink, right? mainly because you're going to get some exposure, but man, that tipping point is still pretty high. For performance, it's actually much easier. I don't think that there's like not doing it is ever going to really help performance unless you were doing too much before. That said, you could also delay it and still be fine.

14:30And it's not a huge deal. Would also favor indoor conditioning whenever possible. And again, most of this stuff is from city related stuff, pollution and wildfire may be different. And there's some evidence there. There's a Scripps study. where they looked at 1.6 million respiratory-based admissions to the hospital. And effectively, in the city, that particulate raised admissions by under 1.5 % per 10 microgram exposure, but wildfire was much more than that potentially, anywhere from 1.3 % up to 10%. So a pretty big range there, and depending on how you interpret that, you could say, oh, wildfire is much worse.

15:08But again, I think it depends on what the size of the fire is, how close you are to it, what's the nature of the birth i mean there's other stuff that we can't even comprehend or think about you know what direction is the wind blowing and how much of it and totally all sorts of things yeah yeah so and uh unfortunately no real updates on the masks here with respect to a wildfire smoke um because somebody asked that in uh that forum reply about six years ago so awesome let's say you got a healthy patient in this situation how are you approaching that that conversation if they're just asking you?

15:41And does that change if they have something like asthma and the sky is orange? Yeah, well, the color of the sky, I wouldn't say, is the predominant feature that would drive my decision-making here, but rather the person's underlying vulnerability and what they're proposing to do. I think that if you're in a situation where there is a significant increase in airborne particulate matter to which you are very vulnerable, susceptible, maybe you or somebody who has a history of, when this has happened in prior years, I have ended up in the hospital with an exacerbation or I have needed to go on prednisone or use my inhaler way more than I typically do just to maintain control or to be able to breathe.

16:18It's like, yeah, those are all things that obviously should modify what you're doing now. And to your point, I would not avoid exercise, but I would strongly favor indoor exercise. And as you mentioned, even being indoors is not foolproof, but that also means that there's like literally no escape in that situation unless you actually escape the area. So your options are like, be inside and don't exercise or be inside and exercise, in which case the being inside and exercise is in my mind more likely to benefit you than staying inside to avoid the particular matter and then not exercising out of fear of some detrimental effect, which is again, most likely outweighed by the benefits in that situation.

16:54So that would be where I would lean for a vulnerable person. Did you have a take there? Yeah. So my take is this, like if this is going to be temporary i think my concern over this almost drops to zero uh both in both ways so like one if it's just a week for example and you're talking about you know three outdoor sessions that are again you're not doing three or four hours at a time like i'm i'm pretty unconcerned right but also if it's a week i'm also unconcerned if you take the week off right because it's like your training load and where the accounting for that sort of kicks in like, oh, we have fully realized all of the potential adaptations from the amount of training that you've done is not over a day, it's not over a week, it's not over two weeks, it's many, many months stacked on top of each other, right?

17:37And so I'm like, look, if you take the week off because there's some concern here, I have minimal concerns about this sort of acute decline in health in response to that or acute decline in performance in response to that. I think what the studies that we've been able to find here are more like, yeah, chronically though, if people stopped exercising because it's so frequent or so pervasive in that environment, that's when you would see a real sort of decline in sort of health and we would intuit probably performance from there. Well, given that we like to try to turn things into contrived disagreement, I'll push back on your pushback here.

18:12And I think it's more so an artifact of the types of folks that we work with the most often. So on your side, doing more in the coaching space with athletes who are more likely to be motivated and engaged in the process. such that if they did happen to take a few days or to take a week off, it is almost a baked-in assumption because they have the same neurological affliction that affects you and I where we can't stop training, that we are guaranteed to come back the following week and get back on the horse. Whereas my experience, much more than coaching these days, working with patients and many patients who have, for example, struggled with various aspects of their health or their weight for long periods of time, for whom taking a week off of exercise for this reason, And whether for the wildfire reason or for some other reason could evolve into two weeks off, four weeks off, six months later, they're like, well, I took this one week off because of the wildfire.

19:03And then I kind of lost momentum. And I, you know, here we are six months or a year later, and I haven't been able to get back to it. And so that's kind of my, would be more my concern. And of course, this just means like, yeah, this stuff should be individualized to the person's situation. And, but that's kind of the perspective that I take and why my initial response was not just, you know, take the week off. It's instead, let's try to find a way to keep you active during the time in a way that's tolerable and doesn't flare up your, you know, if you have any breathing symptoms or intolerance or sensitivity or something like that.

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25:24This is the straw man of the statement. The person writes, the general rhetoric is that if you aren't lifting to five repetitions in reserve or less, you aren't building much muscle. That seems fair, but if that is the case, how does that reconcile with fractional sets from compound exercises? For example, a set of heavy bench, are the triceps really hitting that under five reps in reserve point? If not, why count the set at all for the triceps? And if it is counted as fractional for the triceps, Shouldn't warm-up sets that are over five repetitions in reserve count as fractional sets for the chest?

25:57So yeah, just some definitions here. RIR is reps in reserve, how many more you could have done, right? Where an RIR of zero is a maximal set all the way to failure. And an RIR of five means you have five reps left in the tank. A hard set is one taken close enough to failure that people are willing to count with this sort of arbitrary line in the sand drawn at five. and a fractional set is when a muscle works as sort of a secondary mover or a helper rather than the primary muscle or the main sort of muscle and you count as half or some other fraction. Like chin-ups, for example, counting as like a half set for biceps.

26:31And so both of these arguments can't be true, meaning that the triceps, for example, shouldn't count during bench press, but the chest should count during warm-up sets. They both can't be right if the first premise about repetitions in reserve being less than five and that's the only stuff that really counts is true. I think the resolution of this is, we don't think that's true. And there's some evidence here kind of to inform that. So the paper on this is a meta regression from 2024. The data-driven strength guys in Zordos, I think are on this paper. This is a type of study that pulls a lot of other studies and asks what kind of relationship is present between the variables, not just whether a relationship exists.

27:17So this had 140 results from 26 different studies on growth plus a couple hundred more on strength. The best fit for growth, it looks kind of like a straight line. Basically continuous from failure all the way out past 20 reps in reserve. So the benefit of going from like five reps in reserve to failure is about a tenth of a standardized unit, which is the scale that these researchers use when different studies measured muscle in different ways. Comparing going all the way to failure versus non-failure head-to-head, it's about a tenth to two-tenths and the range crosses zero, meaning that no difference at all is one of the answers that the data could actually fit.

27:54In a more direct study, this is analysis of 67 studies and about 2000 people, the authors tagged each set as direct or indirect for the muscle being measured for growth. Then they fit the model with three different ways. Counting an indirect set as one, an indirect set as half and an indirect set is zero and asked which data fit best to the relationship to growth. And they found that half fit the best. It basically suggests that triceps receive some sort of stimulus. It's not like half the stimulus, but it's some non-zero amount of stimulus. My position on this overall, which I think I've stated a few times, any hard line sort of interpretation of the effective reps model is wrong.

28:39meaning like you got to take every set to five repetitions in reserve or closer otherwise it doesn't count that's a hard line version the way i and i see this it's more of a gradient particularly for hypertrophy meaning the closer you get to failure i think you get a little bit more but i don't know if it's proportionally more and i don't actually don't think so um there's a caveat there i'm going to come back to here in about 120 seconds for strength i am I'm actually more confident that the opposite sort of relationship exists to a point, provided the weight's heavy enough to drive all of the strength adaptations, neurological-based and structural-based, which we think is somewhere around in the 60 % to 70 % of a one rep max range.

29:22Provided you're that heavy, I think staying further away from failure is generally better because you get better force production, higher quality force production, less velocity loss. And so most of your sets should actually probably be five reps in reserve, four reps in reserve, three reps in reserve outside of like straight up practice, you're doing like a heavier single, which becomes more of a, you want it to be a little bit more challenging, but still not failure. So Austin, here's the would you rather before we get into some of the, some of the nuance here, would you rather have a client where they take all of their sets to five reps in reserve or all of their sets to zero reps in reserve all the way to failure?

29:55Which one would you rather have? I think that there is a baked in implication here, or I hope that there would be because of the amount of training volume would vary substantially between these two scenarios, right? So if you said, I'm going to have my trainee take all of their sets to five reps in reserve, that opens the door for them to do many more sets versus if they did quote all their sets to zero reps in reserve that should, if they're actually taking it that far, substantially limit the amount of volume in terms of sets that they should be able to accomplish, at least if the programming is not really, really stupid and having them do numerous sets all the way to failure on multiple different exercises.

30:33So my big picture overarching bias in this situation, independent of any degree of individualization for the person, their preferences, their situation would be for the former, would be for taking everything to five reps in reserve and then doing a bit more across a variety of things. That's my bias, my preferred strategy. I know that there are certainly those in the high intensity training space that would just say, well, instead you should just do one set, take it to failure and move on. And maybe there are are some people for whom that either works well, fits their psychology. Maybe that's enough for them to respond to for a period of time.

31:04I don't think there's really anybody for whom that is going to be enough for like indefinite or long, very long-term improvement. And so there are going to be edge cases, but that's at least my preference, my bias here. Yeah. I think if you saw a bigger difference between like, okay, if you stayed, you went all the way to failure versus staying shy of failure. If you saw a bigger difference in outcomes, you could be more compelled to say, okay, well, we're going to flip this. If you don't have a lot of time, we're going to take it all the way to failure and just going to do fewer sets. Now that may be the practical strategy just because the constraint is time.

31:34But if time is not the limiting factor here, suggesting that taking, okay, two or three sets all the way to failure is better than doing six sets to, you know, three reps, four reps, five reps shot of failure. I think that's where the thing gets sticky. And I think that's where we end up kind of favoring the higher volume condition for not just growth, but like just other health benefits, because now your total training load has gone up. And I again, go back to this throughput or flux idea sort of sort of thing, which we'll talk about at another time. But I think the practical problem with the five RIR going even lighter than that is sort of an anchoring issue, wherein it becomes just increasingly harder to predict, well, look, am I actually at five reps in reserve?

32:16And so there's some evidence here for sure. The closer that people, you know, go to failure, the more accurate their prediction tends to be. And I think how this plays out in practice is that if you don't have a recent anchoring to draw from, you just get worse at it the further you're removed from it. So for example, in our programs and a lot of the ways that I program people, the very first week is sort of an on-ramp and they'll do ascending sets. So like squat, four at seven, four at eight, four at nine or four at six, four at seven, four at eight, whatever you want. And the idea is you sort of triangulate your strength potentially like, okay, here's where I'm at right now.

32:52I got three shots at it. I'm orienting myself into a particular ballpark for strength. One way is to just keep, you know, then you sort of change the programming and basically here's your program that we're going to see if it works for you. So, uh, and a person just goes on and does that until it stops working. That's one way to do it. The way I have been sort of migrating towards is like every fifth to seventh week, I'll put a re-anchoring week where they'll again do the ascending sets. Sometimes, particularly on machine-based exercises, dumbbell-based exercises, low-stakes exercises, overall, I'll have people go either closer to failure or all the way to failure to sort of reorient themselves like, hey, did your strength change?

33:31Have we had some sort of drift here, either RP going up when it shouldn't have or RP going down when that really wasn't our target? That's just a strategy and admittedly sort of a hedge to sort of avoid that problem. I don't have like a ton of hard data showing you, look, this is demonstrably better for muscle growth and strength. That is one way I kind of approach that issue. But where I overall kind of come at this is that I do think that warm-ups and easy sets do deliver some non-zero amount of training stimulus for both strength and muscular growth. I think for hypertrophy, the closer you get to failure, there's a gradient sort of like where you get more and more growth.

34:11It's not linear, right? And so I think there's a sort of tipping point where you get to like RP eight, seven, eight, you know, on some of these sets and you go above that. Yeah, you might get a little more growth, right? But you get a lot more fatigue and so you can't do as much. And so there's some sort of a tipping point there, which ultimately has to be balanced against, well, how much training can the person do? Because, you know, to some extent you can rob Peter to pay Paul and that'll work for a little bit. But then, you know, eventually you're like, well, how do we do more training load?

34:39And if you're still constrained, that can be problematic. for strength on the other hand I do not have as much sort of uh squish I'm more like look it's got to be heavy enough to really work well for strength um well is doing a lot of heavy lifting there pun intended because I do think lifting almost anything has the potential to make you stronger to some degree we think the sort of inflection point is somewhere between 60 to 70 percent of your one rep max and then after that it's literally how much how much of that work can you do and I think staying further away from failure ends up being a little bit better so So if all of that was word salad to you and you're like, dude, give me a line.

35:12What? I'm like, all right, look, hypertrophy somewhere in that sort of seven to nine range is where I would land, particularly for machines, dumbbells, other things. And by that you mean RPE, not rep range. And just to make sure people don't take that the wrong way. Yeah, correct. Correct. Yeah. Wide range of viable intensity. So it can be a wide range of reps. But yeah, RPE should be somewhere seven to nine for straight up hypertrophy work, particularly that low stakes, machines, isolation stuff. And then for strength work, I'm thinking like RPE 4 to 6 for the majority of RPE 4 to 7 if you like, whatever.

35:45But generally you're staying further away from failure such that you're not losing as much bar speed at the end, which tells me that the force production is higher quality and ultimately greater because you can see it move faster. Austin, do you have any differences of opinion there? Any steel man of my argument you want to push back? You want to argue on the internet? No, well, no, and definitely not about this topic. I think your assessment up front that I don't care that much about this is accurate. But I don't want to say that in a way that comes off of as dismissive, but instead why I don't tend to care that much about this argument.

36:17For example, the idea of it should be three reps in reserve or four or five or six reps in reserve. Or should I do three sets or four sets or five sets of four reps or five reps or six reps or things like that. And the main reason is that I feel that the differences in inter-individual response to training dwarf the differences in impact of any one or combination of these decisions. Such that the more practical strategy is just pick something, do it consistently for a while, see what happens and iterate on that. If you are agonizing over, should my sets be to three reps in reserve or four or five, that may not be relevant for you or it may be depending on how responsive are you to the training setup in general.

37:09And if you are somebody, because I just did a consult, for example, yesterday with a guy who he has identified in himself that he does much better in terms of training tolerance, in adaptation, in everything to just generally higher rep work and doesn't do as well with much higher load, lower rep work from like a pain, injury, you know, various sorts of things. and he has struggled repeatedly over time. And it's like, well, why are you kind of beating your head against the wall trying to do this thing that you don't respond that well to when you have identified already something that you do respond well to and your goals do not require you to do low rep, high load work like for competitive powerlifting.

37:47You don't have to do that. And so you're getting frustrated for reasons that are kind of unnecessary here. Whereas somebody else might have completely the opposite sort of phenotype. They might demonstrate or illustrate or experience that, hey, I do way better with doing a couple heavy sets of three, and I don't do nearly as well with higher reps. And if there's no reason otherwise why they ought to do something different, then that's totally fine. So my take is that individual variation tends to outweigh a lot of these things. And that I think partially, my gut is that that partially explains why, for example, in these meta regression studies, great big respect for those guys doing that research, for slogging through that statistical work and things like that.

38:29But I also think that the trends that we observe are relatively modest overall. It's not like this massive sort of effect difference in a lot of these situations. And I think a big part of that is that it gets kind of washed out by individual variation. I might be wrong. Maybe they would have a different take and push back against that. That's totally fine. But that's kind of the way I approach it in practice is not being so concrete with these very specific targets, but rather saying like here's what the general like literature and our experience illustrates as like reasonable trends on which to base our initial intervention.

39:02And then we just kind of like tinker with it based on your response. And then the last thing I would say is, let's say you're agonizing over, should I do something to like three reps in reserve or four reps in reserve or five reps in reserve? Yet over the course of a year, you miss a total of 10 training sessions for whatever reason. I think you missing 10 training sessions probably outweighs you agonizing over those types of things. Or you skip a total of 30 sets across the whole training year. I suspect that that also outweighs the difference of whether I did one extra rep on these sets and took an extra rep close to failure or not.

39:38And so I think, again, that's where I'm putting my emphasis on the variables that matter much more. Even if it is maybe not optimal from a strength stimulus on a per set basis, If you just like do all the sets over the course of the year, you're probably going to end up ahead versus doing the perfect proximity to failure, but then just like skipping some sessions, going on vacation, taking time off, which I'm not saying is a bad thing. That's just like life. People are going to do that. But then it's like, why are you agonizing over these tiny details? Which now, like, that's my case for why I don't care.

40:06I think the agonizing is maybe the more important thing. Exactly. I think, you know, I've been wrecking my brain for over a decade trying to find a way that I feel like adequately measures training load, which is not just the amount of training that you're doing, but the nature of it, right? So all of the other variables kind of combined together. It can't be tonnage, just wait times reps. It can't be the number of hard sets, the number of fractional sets. Not to say that's bad. It's very practical. You can use it. What I'm getting at is the number doesn't tell you what you want. What you're trying to figure out is a sort of dose-response relationship kind of or like a mathematical formula you can use to like lay out and then project your training, right?

40:47And so, you know, a training stress score where you would take the – you'd have a modifier for the exercise. Is it compound? Is it isolation? Is it free weight? Is it machine? And then the average intensity and then the RPE and then how much volume you did. and you would, you know, it's not just, you'd have to come up with some sort of algorithm or equation that plugs all these variables in and gets you a number. And even then you take that number and you have to apply it to a large population and come out with outcomes that are tracked together. And then it gets so noisy and I just. I think the main challenge that you're, you know, talking around, but not explicitly articulating is that in the context of this, our world, strength training, resistance training, we do not have a perfect measure of internal load.

41:29No, we do not. And if you contrast it with the endurance training world where, for example, they can base a lot of things on having good heart rate data and then maybe accounting for duration and peak heart rate and average heart rate and heart rate reserve and predicted heart rates and then ambient conditions, heat and humidity and how that might impact things and all sorts of things, you can get a lot more granular and get a better sense of just looking at the data and being like, oh, damn, that looks like a very, very difficult session. You know, in strength training, our best, you know, quote unquote metric, if you want to even call it that, of internal load is like, yeah, the person's kind of subjective rating of it, which is fine for our purposes as it has been for a very long time.

42:06But it is not nearly as like granular and lets you make a lot of prospective decisions in an anticipatory manner and things like that. I just want numbers. I won't get them. Okay, that's it for this free preview of our direct line from August 2026. The rest of it is on Barbell Medicine Plus, and there are 10 more questions there as well, including do you need a$5 ,000 machine to fix your back, and how to find a physical therapist who won't just put a hot pack on you and call it a day, and what the internet has done to dopamine. Barbell Medicine Plus subscribers also get the articles that I've been writing in our community section.

42:43None of these have been published yet. First one is commentary on the military's new testosterone clinical practice guideline, a longer or deeper look at how many calories it actually takes to build muscle, some practical recommendations, and whether different diets produce different health outcomes when the weight loss was equated. This study was keto versus the world and some of the keto influencers are misquoting it. Go figure. And then finally, another article on statins in older adults, finally, which is the discussion of the STAR-E trial. All that and more, if you subscribe to Barbell Medicine Plus, it's$9.95 a month.

43:15You get the direct line in full every month. You get to ask your own questions. You also get ad free listening to all of our episodes, really access to all of our episodes, bonus podcasts, bonus videos, bonus articles. Plus you get 10 % off all of our programs and our programming library prescription, plus discounts on consultations, seminars, learning, and everything else. You can try it for just a dollar a month. The link is in the description below. Hope to see you there. For everyone here at Barbell Medicine, I'm Dr. Jordan Feigenbaum. That's Dr. Austin Baraki. We'll see you next week and every week right here on the Barbell Medicine Podcast.

43:52Thank you.

From the publisher

Parts of the country now get a few weeks of wildfire smoke every year, and the obvious question is whether there is a point where the air is bad enough that the workout costs you more than it gives you. We went and looked. There is a real number, it comes from about 1.5 million people, and it is not the number that gets quoted.

This is a free preview of Direct Line, our monthly ask-us-anything for Barbell Medicine Plus subscribers. Two of this month's twelve questions are here in full.

First: training in wildfire smoke. What PM2.5 is, why the AQI on your phone and the number in the paper are not the same quantity, where the 90-minutes-at-100-micrograms figure comes from and why it is softer than it sounds, what happened when six cities modeled telling people to stay inside, and why your breathing rate during a set of squats matters more than you would think.

Second: the effective reps model. A subscriber noticed that if a set only counts when you are within five reps of failure, the triceps in a heavy bench press should not count, and if you are going to count that as a fractional set for the triceps, then a warm-up set counts for the chest. Both cannot be true. We go through the meta-regression on proximity to failure, the 67-study analysis that tested whether an indirect set should count as one, as half, or as zero, and where we actually put our sets.


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Timestamps

  • 1:47 The question: is there a point where the air is too bad to train?
  • 2:37 What PM2.5 actually is
  • 3:05 AQI vs micrograms, and why your phone disagrees with the paper
  • 3:50 Where the "90 minutes" number comes from
  • 4:54 Austin: what breathing this air does to your lungs
  • 9:14 1.5 million adults: does dirty air cancel the benefit of exercise?
  • 10:44 Six cities modeled staying indoors. Mortality did not improve.
  • 11:22 Lifting vs cycling: breathing rate is the whole mechanism
  • 12:33 Indoor air during a wildfire, and what filtration does not fix
  • 13:24 Is wildfire smoke worse than city pollution?
  • 14:38 What we would actually tell a patient
  • 18:35 The question: hard sets, fractional sets, and the five-rep rule
  • 19:18 Reps in reserve, hard sets, and fractional sets defined
  • 20:19 The meta-regression: no threshold, just a line
  • 21:13 Do indirect sets count as half a set?
  • 23:08 Would you rather: every set at 5 RIR, or every set to failure?
  • 25:22 Why you get worse at judging RIR the further you are from failure
  • 28:42 The numbers we use: RPE 7 to 9 for hypertrophy, 4 to 6 for strength
  • 29:20 Austin: individual variation dwarfs all of this
  • 33:28 Why nobody can measure training load in the weight room


Resources

Tainio M, de Nazelle AJ, Götschi T, et al. Can air pollution negate the health benefits of cycling and walking? Prev Med. 2016;87:233-236. doi:10.1016/j.ypmed.2016.02.002. PMID 27156248

Ku PW, Steptoe A, Hamer M, et al. Does ambient PM2.5 reduce the protective association of leisure-time physical activity with mortality? A systematic review, meta-analysis, and individual-level pooled analysis of cohort studies involving 1.5 million adults. BMC Med. 2025;23(1):647. doi:10.1186/s12916-025-04496-y. PMID 41310726

Giallouros G, Kouis P, Papatheodorou SI, Woodcock J, Tainio M. The long-term impact of restricting cycling and walking during high air pollution days on all-cause mortality: health impact assessment study. Environ Int. 2020;140:105679. doi:10.1016/j.envint.2020.105679. PMID 32353667

Sun S, Cao W, Qiu H, et al. Benefits of physical activity not affected by air pollution: a prospective cohort study. Int J Epidemiol. 2020;49(1):142-152. doi:10.1093/ije/dyz184. PMID 31504557

Robles P, Araujo T, Brooks D, et al. Cardiorespiratory responses to short bouts of resistance training exercises in individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a comparison of exercise intensities. J Cardiopulm Rehabil Prev. 2017;37(5):356-362. doi:10.1097/HCR.0000000000000282. PMID 28858033

Liang Y, Sengupta D, Campmier MJ, Lunderberg DM, Apte JS, Goldstein AH. Wildfire smoke impacts on indoor air quality assessed using crowdsourced data in California. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021;118(36):e2106478118. doi:10.1073/pnas.2106478118. PMID 34465624

Aguilera R, Corringham T, Gershunov A, Benmarhnia T. Wildfire smoke impacts respiratory health more than fine particles from other sources: observational evidence from Southern California. Nat Commun. 2021;12(1):1493. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-21708-0. PMID 33674571

US Environmental Protection Agency. Air Quality Index (AQI) breakpoints. Air Quality System code tables. Accessed August 10, 2026. https://aqs.epa.gov/aqsweb/documents/codetables/aqi_breakpoints.html

Robinson ZP, Pelland JC, Remmert JF, Refalo MC, Jukic I, Steele J, et al. Exploring the dose-response relationship between estimated resistance training proximity to failure, strength gain, and muscle hypertrophy: a series of meta-regressions. Sports Med. 2024;54(9):2209-2231. doi:10.1007/s40279-024-02069-2. PMID 38970765

Pelland JC, Remmert JF, Robinson ZP, Hinson SR, Zourdos MC. The resistance training dose response: meta-regressions exploring the effects of weekly volume and frequency on muscle hypertrophy and strength gains. Sports Med. 2026;56(2):481-505. doi:10.1007/s40279-025-02344-w



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