Millions of Australians head to the polls

0:05Hello and welcome to Business Matters. Namaste. I'm Devina Gupta joining you from Delhi in India And on the program today, it's a multi-continental broadcast with our teams, David, Ahmed and Ethan in the UK and our guests joining us from the US and Australia. On the show today, we are talking about why are video gamers around the world disappointed? Also, one of the wealthiest universities in the US, Harvard, is facing tax trouble. We tell you all about it. And down under, it's decision times. Polls have opened in Australia and we will hear about them in just a moment in getting all the action.

0:51But let's get on our guests. First, a big hello to Peter Ryan, senior business correspondent at ABC Australia. So, Peter, it's your day. Have you done the deed? Yes I have, how are you? Look I'm just back from my local polling booth at Kirribilli which is a harbourside suburb in Sydney, clear blue skies here in Sydney today, cool autumn weather. It's interesting that while there are a lot of people out today voting, a couple of million Australians have already pre-polled or voted already just to get this out of the way so it's going to be a very interesting day and evening once the polls close to see whether Anthony Albanese, the Labor Prime Minister, is able to get back across the line for a second term or there's a surprise victory to Peter Dutton, the Conservative leader of the opposition from the Liberal National Coalition.

1:45Well, we'll be hearing a familiar voice on the programme also from Melbourne. What's the mood there among voters? So Peter, stay with us. Let me get in our second guest, Diane Brady, Executive Director of Fortune Live Media and Editorial Director of the Fortune CEO Initiative, joining us from the U.S. How are you, Diane? Very well. Looking forward to a month full of events for us and lots of coverage, of course. It's the gift that keeps on giving being in the U.S. these days. Which is true, but I want to test you and just a bit of a quiz because it's Friday. And before we get into all the election heat and the economy and trade and tariff and everything, I just want to ask you if you know the sound.

2:34Okay, Diane, first to you, because I know Peter smiled there. What is that? Oh, Peter knows the sound? Well, it's funny. That immediately reminded me of the old sound of like AOL going on to a dial-up. But what is it? Let me, I can't. What is it, Peter? It's a Skype ringtone. I think I'm pretty sure about that. Yes. And I'm clapping in the studio because it is Skype. And actually, there's a story behind it because Skype is going to shut off its operations on Monday, which is May 5th. And we actually speak to the composer behind this iconic tune. I'm not sure if he'd like your assessment there, Diane, but he's a lovely guy.

3:15I just had a... I'm feeling nostalgic for both AOL and Skype. How about that? So there you go. All right. There you go. There you go. We'll be hearing from him in just a bit from now. But for the moment, let's head to Australia where Peter is. Around 18 million Australians are set to cast their vote. The voting has begun for the upper and lower houses of Parliament there. And as Peter told us about, the two leading contenders. Let's get in our reporter, Vivian Nunes, who's joining us. She's at a polling station in Melbourne. And she's also a familiar voice on the programme. Vivian, such a good time there and really nice to speak with you about this.

4:01Tell us about the mood on election day. You're at a polling station there. Good morning, Davina. I am. And look, Peter doesn't have all the nice weather in Sydney. It's pretty sunny down here in Melbourne as well. But it has been a tight fought campaign. I'm in the seat of Koo Yong, which is in the eastern suburbs. Now, just like at polling booths across Australia right now, there's a cake stall here raising money for the local primary school. There's a sausage sizzle barbecue, which is a key part of Election Day in this country. In fact, there's even a website called Democracy Sausage and it crowdsources where sausage and cakes are available on Election Day.

4:40So it's not all about the politics, but I suppose we should get to that. And there have been some tense moments in this campaign. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and opposition leader Peter Dutton were both faced with some confrontations by members of the public when they were out and about on the trail. And there have been some far-right activists disturbing campaign events as well. I think there has been a lot more attention on this election than there has been for a while. But many people here this morning in Koo Yong telling me they're not voting for the major parties. they're supporting independents or minor parties such as the Greens because they really don't feel that the governing Labor Party or the opposition Liberal National Coalition has put much on the table for them when it comes to securing their vote.

5:23I voted for Ruddick, who's an independent. I just believe his views are very true. I didn't really like what was going on with the rest of the parties. The major parties didn't impress you? No. I think it was all the same. From one side to the other, they kept saying the same thing, so I wasn't very clear on what they were going to do and it wasn't convincing. I just think that they're both similar, so similar. I had a look at all the policies, I had a look at all the stuff they're actually selling to us and I don't actually see the difference between the big major parties. I voted for the Greens because they reflect their values that I believe in.

5:59They're strict on climate change, they're looking out for young Australians and that's what makes them the most enticing, I suppose. So it sounds like the major parties didn't have much to offer you? Not really. I mean, like, realistically, one of them will end up in. But I think it's more about just like the principle for yourself, voting for who you want. And Vivian, this is going to get tricky, isn't it? Because the voting system in Australia is a bit different. It follows a preferential system. It does. It is pretty complicated here. Yeah, I was helping my parents with their how to vote cards earlier in the week.

6:38They did a postal vote, which, as Peter said, many Australians have done. And look, it's a very long piece of paper if you're voting in the upper house. And it's another bit of paper when you're voting in the lower house. But yes, preferential system, as you say. Look, one of the big issues that's been happening here has been the cost of living. Lots of people have felt under pressure since the pandemic. Things like food prices have gone up, rents have gone up. There's also been really noticeable costs, sorts of insurance and energy bills, that kind of thing. And that really has been front and centre from the two major parties.

7:14Now, whether or not voters feel they're doing enough is another question. I'll just take you through some of what's being offered. So the Labor government, which is in power, have promised that if they're re-elected, they'll offer a small tax cut, some energy rebates and a promise to bring down some of the cost of medicines that are subsidised by the government. They're also promising to cut student loan debts by 20%. So young people have certainly been listening to that. On the other side, the opposition has tried to win votes by promising to cut petrol by 25 cents a litre for 12 months and also giving people a$1 ,200 Australian dollar tax rebate.

7:55So certainly they've been focused on the cost of living. but as we heard in some of those clips I spoke to people here this morning, not everyone's convinced by those but perhaps it depends where you go in Australia, perhaps in some of the more lower socioeconomic electorates, those cost of living pressures have been really hitting hard and perhaps that will be enough to get one or other of the major parties across the line. And have there been any early polls till now or is it too early to even guess that? When do we know the results? Well, like millions of Australians I'll be watching this evening on the TV broadcast, so sometime tonight we should know.

8:35Yeah, I mean, look, the polls have been very interesting, this campaign. Early in the election, there was a sense that perhaps the Liberal opposition might take power, win minority government. But recently, though, there's certainly been a trend in all the late polling showing that the Labor government will hold on to power, possibly even increase its majority. Now, part of that is because opposition leader Peter Dutton has been criticised for running a fairly lacklustre campaign. There was an embarrassing U-turn he made early on involving working from home. He had said he wanted all public servants back in the office, but then held up his hands and said, oh, look, he'd made a mistake on that.

9:13He also talked about cuts to the public service. And I'm not sure if that was very wise, because I think that played into people's feelings about what's happening in the US. And really, that has been the other factor in this campaign. A lot of Australians watching what's happening with Donald Trump. And I think a lot of younger voters, particularly telling me they're not really or they're rather worried about that level of unpredictability and volatility. So perhaps there is a suspicion that people will stick with what they know and vote Labor back in. One thing that is being widely predicted is that lots of minor parties, the Greens, Independents, as we heard here in Kooyong, they should do very well.

9:50But nobody really knows. And we'll find out when we're all glued to our TV screens. It's a race till the time it's not finished. So thank you so much, Vivian, for joining us. I'm sure we'll be talking more about this. Vivian Nunes there reporting in Melbourne for us. But Peter, as you heard, Vivian, domestic issues, of course, are there about cost of living, crisis, housing, health care. But another thing that Vivian talked about was this Trump factor. And if I'm not wrong, I was reading about there was this TV campaign. There were big questions that were being asked over there. And when Albanese and the opposition leader Peter Dutton faced each other in their first televised debate, the first question asked by the audience was one on Trump.

10:38So is this election also about who can handle the unpredictability from the US President Donald Trump's policies better? Well, that's right. I mean, it's very hard to eliminate the Donald Trump factor from the Australian election or anything really in the world at the moment. And Anthony Albanese has been trying to speak with President Trump to gain exemptions for Australia under the tariffs. his phone calls have not been returned but that's probably not unusual I'm sure there have been a lot of phone calls that haven't been returned Donald Trump was in the Rose Garden at the White House the other day and he was asked by a few Australian journalists when he was going to be giving Prime Minister Albanese a call he said well it's on the list and I guess if Mr Albanese gets across the line and wins tonight he'll be expecting a call from Donald Trump which traditionally happens when a major leader wins And of course, I would imagine, well, let's now have a bit of a chat about these tariffs to see what we can do.

11:40Because as you'll be talking about later in the program, it's very hard to evade the impact of tariffs, even if they don't directly affect you that badly. It's all the uncertainty in the world about what might happen next, depending on how Donald Trump feels about the next executive order he might decide to sign. Yeah, because only 5 % of Australia's exports actually go to the US because China is by far Australia's biggest trading partner. But the US still dominates the conversation there. And Diane, it just reminds me that it seems so much parallel with what happened in Canada as well, in terms of the elections, where Trump factor was such a big one.

12:26It was huge. That's my home and native land. I'm from Canada originally. And in fact, we had, you know, Krista Freeland came down. She's the former deputy prime minister. And in many ways, she kind of instigated this switch by quitting the Trudeau government. Pierre Polyev, who was the opposition leader, was very much ahead in the polls. And then in comes Mark Carney, who is former central banker in both Canada and England. And I think in both Australia, Canada and the rest of the world, you know, there are peacetime leaders and there are wartime leaders. And this is very much seen to be wartime, a trade war, to be sure, for most countries.

13:08But Trump looms large over many elections and many conversations around the world right now. And for good reason. There's a very big impact that they're having on these economies. Less so, of course, Australia. But the China factor looms large there. But certainly Canada, it's been huge. And GM said that they're going to have an extra$4 billion to$5 billion in costs alone, partly because of tariffs on Canada, on the cars. Absolutely. And coming back to Australia, Peter, the China factor that Diane is talking about is even more important when it comes to the regional security in the Pacifics there.

13:48So whoever wins this election will have to do that balancing act between the US and China. Yeah, and look, in Australia, there's a troubled recent history in trade and diplomatic relations with China. Probably five or six years ago, when the Australian government, the previous coalition government, banned Huawei from tendering for the rollout of 5G or the NBN, China put Australia in the freezer pretty much, and we weren't able to export timber, wine, crayfish, etc. And then it really ramped up after the previous Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, said there needs to be a global inquiry into the sources of COVID.

14:32But relations have eased quite a bit. But the big concern is that China is Australia's largest trading partner. We may well end up getting a lot of much cheaper goods coming from China because they won't be going to the United States. But if the US tariffs really damage China's economy and there's not enough local stimulus there, well, if China consumers stop spending and Chinese businesses and governments stop buying Australian iron ore and coal to keep construction going, well, that could end up having a bit of a hit to Australia's budget, which is really very reliant on commodities, of course.

15:11So there's a lot of uncertainty, a lot of people watching what might happen, but the impact on China and how China responds or handles this could be very, very important to the way Australia fares this tariff war. Absolutely. So that makes these elections even more crucial. You can find more details on bbc.com as we are following these elections closely online as well. But now, moving on to something which caught our attention in the newsroom instantly, especially with the show's producer, David Kan. The only way we're going to get through this is by sticking together. Now, that is the trailer for the highly anticipated game, Grand Theft Auto 6, that was expected to be released in fall this year.

16:07That is, until on Friday, the GTA maker Rockstar Games announced that it has been delayed and the launch will now be on May 26th next year. In a statement, Rockstar said that it needed extra time to deliver at the level of quality you expect and deserve. And just like many video gamers, even David was disappointed with this. Investors haven't been happy because shares of Rockstar's parent company Take-Two Interactive tumbled by as much as 8 % on Friday morning. When they closed, they were almost 6.6 % down. So there's lots at stake, lots of money which has been already pumped in to make the game a hit.

16:51So earlier I spoke with Sean Layton, a strategic advisor at Tencent Games. He used to run Sony Interactive Entertainment's worldwide studio that develops game for PlayStation brand and join me from the US. Well, you know, you can say it's a delay. Something as anticipated as a Grand Theft Auto release is a lot of pressure around it, a lot of expectations around it. Delaying games in the industry is not unusual. In fact, it's more of the accepted course. You come out, launch a date, you try to work against it, and you just realize you just need some more time. They're not going to release anything that's substandard, not going to release anything that's average.

17:31They have to hit all expectations, which means outstanding is the only target they have. You mentioned that there are several things that a gaming company has to get right before its release. It almost seems as if it's a victim of its own success when a game reaches this level. So what are those things that this business would try and get it right for its fans? Look, GTA V, its predecessor, the current game on the market, that released in 2013. It's been a top 10 seller for 12 years. That's amazing. Nothing has ever done that before. So, of course, that increases the anticipation for its sequel, GTA 6.

18:07And it's going to be bigger. It's going to be more immersive. There's going to be an endless array of things to do. You're going to be able to live in that game for a long time. I know the guys at Rockstar are perfectionists. I know if they release something that is not 100 but just 99, they won't be happy with it. But what do you think it means for the company that chooses to delay it? How does it impact their business? They've had remarkable success with the current game, GTA V. You know, selling like crazy for 12 years has been unprecedented in the business. So I guess in a certain stage, you could say they're not racing to get more sales because they know that to rush the product out, to make it less than what they want it to be, would be more damaging to the brand, to the company than delaying it six months.

18:54And it's not only Rockstar's business, but also business of console sales, business of hardware makers. That is at stake here because a new game, which will be launched, would mean that fans will have to buy new console sets, isn't it? Be it PlayStation 5 or Xbox. Yeah, well, it will come out in the, quote unquote, the current generation, which is PS5, Xbox Series X, if it makes the May date next year, which I'm sure it will do. But then surely there will be a new PlayStation, new Xbox, probably by 2027 or 2028. And I'm sure GTA 6 will come out with a re-release on the new hardware specs for many, many years to come.

19:35And what does this mean for other developers then? Because there's lots of money which is being poured in this particular game and the competition is quite high. Well, for those developers, other publishers, it means Holiday 25 is wide open, people. Get your games out now. Now, you know, we have this thing called the blast radius. Whenever a big game like Grand Theft Auto or Call of Duty hits the marketplace, other publishers try to stay out of the blast radius because all the auction is gone. And those games will suck it all up. And so the fact that they've announced today that they're moving into 26 May, it means Holiday 25 is going to be wide open for all the publishers.

20:10So could there be change in schedule for some particular developers they could take advantage of? They could even avoid releasing at a new date. Yeah, probably. What's the bad news for some publishers is that when the idea of a fall release of GTA 6 came out, I think a few publishers pulled up their schedules to release stuff in the summer of 25. And they may be releasing it a bit too early because they're trying to avoid GTA 6. Now we'll look to the next couple of weeks to see if other publishers adjust some of their more aggressive release dates because holiday is now wide open. Are you optimistic that GTA 6 will make it in 2026?

20:49Or will it take more time? They said May 26. And in this business, you can say, at least in the fall or the spring, or at least in April or June. When you say a date like that, that means you're pretty locked in. Locked in and cannot get out. That is Sean Layden, a strategic advisor at Tencent Games. Diane, do you play video games? I actually played Grand Theft Auto back when was the number late 90s like 97 was when the first one came out um so yes and I have I have sons and I should say a daughter let's not be sexist so video games have been a big part of my life uh for good and for ill and what what's shocking about this one to me is yes it's it's one of the best-selling games of all time Grand Theft Auto five certainly.

21:37But wow, 2013, that's a long time. And I suspect that advances in AI is one of the factors that's delaying this game because they would be ridiculous not to be taking advantage of that technology because it's truly going to transform gaming. So I would think that's one reason why we're seeing a delay more than a year. Sean said it's because they're looking for immersive experience as per his information. And in 2013, when Grand Theft Auto V was released, it's already generated$8 billion revenue for Rockstar Games. But Peter, does it remain then a one trick pony? Because you got to exceed expectations here.

22:20There is no job well done. You got to hit the mark right. That's right. It's got to keep getting better and better, providing more excitement, providing more sales, more profit. and it's a bit like making a sequel to a popular film. If Godfather 2 had not been as good as the original Godfather, well, that might have sunk the career of the director and the whole team. So you've just got to keep getting better all the time. Well, let's not talk about Godfather 3. That's a debate for another. Dave and Peter, be with us. We'll be back shortly.

23:04Welcome back to Business Matters with me, Devina Gupta. With me are two guests, Peter Ryan, Senior Business Correspondent at ABC Australia, and Diane Brady, who is Executive Director of Fortune Live Media and Editorial Director of Fortune CEO Initiative, continue to be with us. Thank you, guys. And welcome back to the show. Well, let's get started with the news that just come in a few hours ago. And that's about US President Donald Trump's tax proposals. Now, these proposals have come out in a statement by the White House Office of Management and Budget. And what they say is that his administration is proposing$163 billion worth of cuts to the federal budget.

23:53And this would sharply be reducing spending on education, housing and medical research next year, but will also increase outlays for defense and border security. So seems to be something that President Trump has talked about during his campaign trail. But Diane, how are you finding these proposals? How are you reading them? I think it's very emblematic of the view that Trump has had of Washington as being woke, wasteful. He does not like programs aimed at the arts, aimed at foreign aid. So I think it's very much in keeping with this notion of a nation in chaos overrun by immigrants. So you must boost homeland security and defense.

24:43And and I think it's, you know, personally, of course, it is sad because a lot of programs are impacting the people who are the most marginalized in society. And I think that, you know, this is that these are the largest, you know, cuts to a federal budget in modern times. And there's probably more to come. But really, it's very much what one would expect, given his campaign. But I was surprised to see that the cuts actually, and some details are coming out now, it seems that non-defense discretionary spending, which excludes the massive Social Security and Medicare programs and rising interest payment, would be cut by 23%, which will be the lowest levels since 2017.

25:33So where would that impact be felt the most? I think you're already feeling the impact. I was in West Virginia recently, and you're seeing the impact. Let's step back from the budget. In a lot of these communities, for example, around natural disasters, the aid that's going to go to FEMA, you're seeing it with food insecurity, even though SNAP, the program here for food stamps, has not been cut. And you're seeing it in areas, frankly, that have a long tail. Let's take, for example, one of the cuts was to the Centers for Disease Control around its chronic disease center. That is one of the calling cards for RFK Jr., who's the nation's new health secretary.

26:21So you also get the sense that the members of cabinet are not necessarily talking to each other. But I think there's no question if you look at a pyramid and billionaires are at the top, the bottom of the pyramid is going to feel it the most. And this could also mean potentially job losses, especially government job losses. Yes. And that's on top of the job losses that will come through tariffs, because that's also been chronicled from the last time we had tariffs here. So I think recession, if you look at the barometer for that, more than 50 percent likelihood of recession for most economists I talk to.

27:01And I think this budget is likely not to help. And we're getting a lot of mixed signals, of course, in Washington. But but there's no question, I think this is very aligned with the president's worldview. And Peter, I want to come to you because the other thing that I noticed in this budget proposal statement, again, it's just a proposal, is that the administration says they would boost discretionary defense spending by 13 percent. Now, this is in line with what many other nations also are doing when it comes to military spending. And earlier this week, we were talking about how there has been a consistent rise in military spending across the world by many countries.

27:45Yeah, look, in the United States, very, very big spender on the military, of course, going way back to post-World War II, right through the Cold War and various wars around the world, Iraq, Afghanistan more recently. 13 % that's a very big amount of money to increase the budget by and also it tunes in with what's happening in Europe at the moment. Countries in the EU and the UK are lifting their defence spending after pressure from Donald Trump to do that here in the Australian election campaign it's been on as well lift defence spending here in Australia to 3 % of GDP but really looking at the bigger picture there in the United States.

28:30There doesn't seem to be much regard from the White House these days or compassion for the lower middle class or the working poor in the United States where people live day to day and would be very scared about what might be happening to them if they're relying on social welfare to keep things going. So it's all in line with Donald Trump wanting to drain the swamp. He's made that very clear. But he also seems to have no regard for any checks or balances, whether that's through the US Congress or through independent agencies, and even seems to have a disregard for what the Supreme Court of the United States says.