Myanmar Earthquake: How aid gets to where it’s needed

29 Mar 2025 · 49 min

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Podcast Episode Summary: Big Boss Interview - Myanmar Earthquake: How Aid Gets to Where It’s Needed

Episode Overview This episode of the Big Boss Interview focuses on the recent devastating earthquake in Myanmar, which has prompted a rare appeal for international aid from the country's military leader, Min Aung Hlaing. The discussion also touches on geopolitical tensions involving Denmark and the U.S. over Greenland, as well as the dismissal of a lawsuit against pop star Dua Lipa regarding her hit single "Levitating." The episode features insights from experts Andy Uhler and Nga Pham, providing perspectives from the U.S. and Taiwan.

Key Topics Discussed

  1. Myanmar Earthquake
  2. Impact: A powerful earthquake struck Myanmar, with reports of hundreds, possibly thousands, of fatalities and significant destruction, especially in Mandalay, a city of 1.5 million.
  3. Rescue Efforts: Rescue workers are using rudimentary means to search for survivors trapped under rubble. Hospitals are overwhelmed, and there is an urgent call for blood donations.
  4. Military Junta’s Appeal: The military government’s appeal for humanitarian aid amid ongoing civil conflict raises concerns about the distribution of aid.
  1. Challenges of Aid Distribution
  2. Infrastructure Issues: Damaged roads, airports, and supply chains complicate the delivery of aid.
  3. Negotiating Access: Humanitarian agencies face challenges working across conflict lines in Myanmar and require unfettered access to assess needs.
  4. Concerns about Aid: There are fears that aid may not reach those who need it most due to the military regime's control.
  1. Economic Context in Myanmar
  2. Economic Decline: The economy has shrunk by approximately 30%, with inflation rates for basic necessities like rice hitting nearly 50%. Local currency devaluation exacerbates the situation.
  3. Concerns Over Aid Allocation: Mimi Wynne Bird expresses skepticism that aid will be distributed fairly, given past experiences of military corruption.
  1. Geopolitical Tensions Regarding Greenland
  2. U.S.-Denmark Relations: U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance accuses Denmark of underinvesting in Greenland’s security, sparking discussions on foreign policy and investment in critical minerals.
  3. Danish Investment: A Danish researcher clarifies that while Denmark does invest in Greenland, bureaucratic challenges hinder effective spending.
  1. Dua Lipa Lawsuit
  2. Legal Outcome: Dua Lipa successfully dismissed a lawsuit accusing her of plagiarizing her song "Levitating." The discussion highlights the fine line between inspiration and copying in music.
  1. Restaurant Struggles in China
  2. Declining Profits: Reports indicate a dramatic decline in restaurant profits in China, with many establishments forced to close due to rising costs amidst a struggling economy.
  3. Shifting Consumer Behavior: Economic downturn and high living costs have led consumers to cut back on dining out.

Expert Insights

  • Nga Pham (Journalist): Offers a view on Taiwan's business landscape and the implications of the geopolitical situation on trade and aid.
  • Andy Uhler (Journalism Fellow): Discusses the interconnectedness of U.S. and Mexican trade relationships and the impact of recent environmental disasters in Texas.

Conclusion The episode emphasizes the complex interplay between natural disasters, humanitarian aid, economic struggles, and geopolitical dynamics. It raises crucial questions about how aid can be effectively mobilized in conflict-affected regions, the responsibilities of foreign governments, and the critical need for transparency in the distribution of resources during times of crisis. The discussion captures the urgency of the situation in Myanmar while also shedding light on broader global issues.

For further updates and discussions, listeners are encouraged to stay tuned to BBC's coverage of these evolving situations.

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Transcript

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0:05Hello and welcome to Business Matters here on the BBC World Service. I'm Rahul Tannenplenty coming up on the programme. We're going to take you to Myanmar very shortly to bring you the latest on the devastating earthquake. They're also US President, Vice President J.D. Vance is up the stakes in the War of Words over Greenland. He says Denmark has underinvested in the territory. Is he right? Denmark is investing quite a bit every year in Greenland. Substances through block grant to Greenland is a quite significant amount of money. And why are restaurants struggling to make a profit in China? minute profits are tumbling and many are closing.

0:42Suddenly, our reporter has been finding out what has gone wrong. As always, we have two guests on opposite sides of the world. We have Na Pham, journalist and filmmaker who's based in Taipei in Taiwan. We're going to be looking at what's happening in Taiwan during the course of the programme. Na, delighted to have you with us. But what are some of the big stories that you've been looking at this week?

1:08What's Biggest story today, obviously, the earthquake in Myanmar and Thailand, where Taiwanese businesses do have a lot to do. So that is the main headline today. But also I've been looking into Trump promised tariffs. Recently, I also had a fact-finding trip to Vietnam, you know, where I come from. And I was talking to businesses to see what they thought about the promised tariffs. Well, you know, tariffs are going to be a big part of the program. They tend to be at the moment. So looking forward now to get your comments on that. Andy Uler, journalism fellow at the University of Texas Energy Institute.

1:48I'm sure that during the course of this weekend, the tariffs may have come up in your conversations. You know, funny enough, they have come up. There's some flooding happening in South Texas right now that a lot of folks are talking about right now. 20 inches, 20 plus inches of rain over the last 24, 48 hours. in South Texas, which is right. And it's a lot of border community. So it's on the border of Mexico and Texas. And so I think a lot of folks are sort of dealing with that right now. We're certainly talking about, you know, in that context, too, sort of the relationship between the Mexicans and American trade.

2:27Yeah, no, there's a lot going on at the border, for sure. There certainly is. And I know you're talking about floods, and we're going to start about the impact of nature on countries because rescue workers in Myanmar are digging through the rubble with their hands to try and find those who have been trapped underneath Friday's earthquake. It's difficult to say how many people have been killed. It's thought hundreds, that number could rise to thousands who may have died across the country. It's not the only place that has been affected in Bangkok, 1300 kilometres away from the epicentre in Thailand.

2:59I'm sure some of you will have seen the pictures of this a half-built skyscraper collapsed trapping dozens of construction workers at least six people have been killed but again in that situation that number is expected to rise we are going to focus on Myanmar our correspondent Caroline Hawley compiled this report with the help of BBC Burmese staff on the ground in Myanmar's second largest city there's panic on the streets Mandalay 10 miles from the epicenter is home to one and a half million people Buildings dangerously disfigured and fallen in on themselves after the earth moved beneath them.

3:39This woman's trapped with her baby boy. Her legs are caught under rubble, on the ground floor of a damaged building in the capital, Népidor. A painstaking effort to get her free. We don't yet know the real scale of this disaster, but hospitals have been inundated with the injured. brought in not by ambulance, but in whatever transport they can find. Treated on the street in the heat because of fear of aftershocks. So many wounded, the authorities have appealed to the public to donate blood. While I was doing the housework, I felt shaking. It was very strong. I was afraid that the building would collapse.

4:23And as I went outside, I was hit by a cabinet that fell on me. The needs are so great, the internationally isolated military junta made a rare appeal for outside help. We want the international community to give humanitarian aid as soon as possible, the spokesman says. The damage has been indiscriminate.

4:48Cultural duels, along with basic infrastructure, have been destroyed. and many areas have been cut off with roads concertinaed and cracked and the power and internet down. And that's just in territory controlled by the military government. Information from rebel-held areas, already reeling from recent fighting, is harder to come by. Regardless of religion or politics, the hope is that the help now being mobilised by the UN will be allowed to reach everyone. One man who's been helping rescue people told the BBC that many remain under the rubble, screaming for help. And he sent us pictures he'd taken close to Mandalay, where he said he'd seen more than 100 bodies by nightfall in one small village alone.

5:35Caroline, with that powerful report there, as she said, the military regime has appealed for international help, but that's not going to be easy in a country which has an ongoing civil war. Kieran Donnelly is Senior Vice President of International Programs at the aid agency International Rescue Committee. In any earthquake situation, you've got, particularly in a country where there isn't already a strong infrastructure, but you've got roads that have been destroyed, you've got airports that have been damaged, you've got supply chains that have been disrupted. It's very hard simply physically to get into the affected areas.

6:08You know, organisations like ours, we have staff based in those communities who are able to respond directly and communicate back to us as best they can. But when you're talking about responding in a conflict situation, as in Myanmar or as in other conflicts around the world, you then have to negotiate with different parties to be able to work across conflict lines. What I hope to see and what I appeal to any party in the conflict is to allow unfettered access for humanitarian agencies, regardless of areas of control or conflict lines, to be able to access those communities, to assess needs and to continue responding to communities on the basis of how severely they've been impacted and to be able to respond in a needs-based way.

6:48If that aid does come and if it does get in, will it actually go to the right areas? There are concerns about that. And Mimi Wynne Bird is a Burmese-American security analyst. She was born in the country and knows it well. The economy has reduced by 30 % conservatively by World Bank. And right now, the inflation of rice, you know, very essential, is nearly 50%. And the currency has devalued from$1 ,300 per dollar to$4 ,500, over$4 ,500 per dollar. So those are the economic problem. And it's all caused by the military regime weaponizing the economy. Do you worry that all those resources that may get in will go to the right areas, to the right people?

7:37If they are just working only with the military, I don't have any confidence that it will get to the right people. Because we have had many experience of military siphoning off all these aid materials. Mimi, last question to you. This is a country that, as you described at the beginning, has suffered economically so much. We're just getting a sense of the scale of the devastation. But this is going to set back that economic progress even more now, isn't it? Well, there wasn't any economic progress. According to the World Bank, there was no sign of growth at all for the economy. They don't even have enough energy.

8:16I mean, they only get four hours of electricity. So economy is already in a shamble. So I think that people are already vulnerable and this will just devastate them some more. Mimi Wynne Bird there. We know you're there in Taiwan. We know that China has very good relations with Myanmar. So do you think that is where a lot of the aid may come from initially? That's right. You know, China and Myanmar share quite a long border. So the Chinese government immediately already announced a certain amount of aid to Myanmar. But, you know, looking at the situation in Myanmar today, you know, I recall about 20 years ago, I went to Myanmar as well after another disaster, the cyclone Nagis.

9:04At that time, I went undercover because the junta basically shut down the whole country and made it off limits to everyone, including foreign journalists. Now, looking at the aid efforts in the country, it stayed pretty much the same. Nothing really has changed. The infrastructure remains very, very poor. And I don't see any real commitment and real effort by the junta to actually allow the foreign aid to flow into the country to the people who need it most. So, I mean, it's really heartbreaking. And my heart goes to all the people of Myanmar. But, you know, the international community has to raise their voice and has to do more to actually force all the conflicting parties in the country to help with this.

9:56Because, and it is such a closed country, even now, we're really not sure what's going on, the scale of the devastation, because it's so hard to get information from there. Do you think it will be the Chinese who can put pressure to say to the junta in Myanmar that, look, you need to let aid in, you need to let people in, otherwise lots of people could die here? I'm sure that the Chinese government is going to do just that. I mean, they have a relatively good relationship with the junta. They've been helping them economically and politically. So they are going to apply some pressure. And also Russia, I heard, is also going to do something because, you know, they have very strong military ties.

10:42The junta leader has just been to Moscow to reiterate their strong relationship. So other countries won't get involved. But I mean, Myanmar Jantar actually has the history of being very independent. They don't really listen to anyone. I mean, I hope this disaster will actually open their eyes and do something for them to realise the scale of the damages that have been done to their own people. It's interesting, Andy, isn't it? We are going to talk about aid to this country. Desperately needs it. At a time when many governments, including yours here in the UK as well, are looking to withdraw from aid budgets.

11:20Yeah, you're exactly right. And sort of any excuse not to give aid, like Na was talking about sort of the idea of, you know what, there isn't a whole open economy. There isn't an open distribution of information. Any excuse – I don't think the United States government right now needs any excuse to withdraw aid or not sort of step up to the plate. But you're exactly right. It's sort of, you know, this feels like so much of what I'm reading about sort of the Chinese stepping in in this soft power dynamic, the United States sort of withdrawing. There's opportunity to do exactly that and sort of step up and say, you know what, we can help you out when you're in a time of need.

12:03It's certainly not the United States's stance right now to do anything like that. So I don't even see a whole lot of mention. Of course, hopefully, our political leaders will acknowledge what's happening in the devastation to the people in Myanmar. But it doesn't feel like there's any sort of want to help out at all from this administration, honestly. There will be continued coverage of what is happening with the earthquake. Of course, Thailand affected as well here on the BBC World Service. So do keep listening to our news programs. Let us move to Europe now because the U.S. president, vice president, not president yet, J.D.

12:39Vance, has accused Denmark of underinvesting in the security of Greenland and leaving it vulnerable. Our message to Denmark is very simple. You have not done a good job by the people of Greenland. You have underinvested in the people of Greenland and you have underinvested in the security architecture of this incredible, beautiful landmass filled with incredible people. That has to change. And because it hasn't changed, this is why President Trump's policy in Greenland is what it is. Earlier, these people in Greenland told the BBC their views of the new United States policy towards them. I don't mind to cooperate with the Americans, but most of the population in New York or maybe in Greenland are just against that Trump.

13:27And a lot of people are worried. And I think it's also because we are very agreed on that their intentions aren't as pure or as clear as they claim to be. I think he is delirious. He thinks he can just take over the world. We wanted to get some reaction to J.D. Vance's comments about that underinvestment. So I've been speaking to Mikel Runger Olsen, senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International studies? If you was to make a point of it, I would say that the US has more of a point on security than on the other matter. I mean, Denmark is investing quite a bit every year in Greenland.

14:05Subsidies through a block grant to Greenland is a quite significant amount of money. But when it comes to security, of course, well, it's actually been very high on the Danish agenda since at least 2019. But the problem has been that the money that has sort of been set aside, it has proven difficult to spend it than to decide to spend it. When you say they don't know where to spend the money or they're struggling to spend the money, it's normally the other way around. It's hard to get the money. Why haven't they been able to spend it? We haven't heard a clear answer from the Danish Minister of Defence yet.

14:42But of course, when it comes to sort of defense spending, when it comes to buying new equipment, all sorts of things can go wrong in terms of making sure you find the right gear for the job and get the contract signed. But for whatever reasons, the fact of the matter remains that those money that was initially promised in 2019, that they haven't been spent yet. And that is unfortunate. The political will is actually there. The problem is just to get these investments implemented quickly enough, really. We're talking about investment in security. Can I talk to you about investment in critical minerals?

15:20Because there's graphite, there's rare earth, there's nickel, there's gold in Greenland. Has Denmark done enough to develop those areas? I would argue, actually, that this also very much comes down to the free market, right? This comes down to whether there are companies willing to invest. And the big problem about minerals in Greenland is Greenland is very wealthy on loads of different minerals. The problem just is that it is a very remote place. It's a harsh climate. So it is fairly expensive to extract minerals from Greenland. And therefore, there has been challenges for big companies in finding good business cases for extracting these resources.

16:06Andy, interesting to hear from Mikkel there. And look, let's be honest about this. Whether you agree with what the US policy is, it's effective, isn't it? I mean, Denmark's probably going to spend a lot more money on Greenland now than it would have done if Donald Trump hadn't said anything. Yeah, the sort of flex does make sense. You're exactly right. But at the same time, I think, you know, your guest talking about I love how the Trump administration talks about the vast, incredible natural resources that are in Greenland. But if you're a business who's in the you know, if you're a firm in the business of extracting natural resources, Greenland is not the first place you're going to go to because exactly that it's buried under so much ice.

16:49It's so expensive and it's so sort of difficult to get those natural resources out. yeah no I think there's a big and honestly this is sort of like the Trump administration game plan basically you sort of assert yourself and it's a lot of it's a big flex to sort of see what the reaction is going to be from the governing party the Danish are saying look we care about Greenland now and so I think it is sort of this idea of what are you going to do now after we assert ourselves is there worry in Taiwan that, you know, Donald Trump at times has sort of indicated that he could possibly to use military action to go into Greenland and take it over.

17:30And if he was to do that, would that then worry people in Taiwan? Because, you know, China could say, well, look, you've done it there. Maybe we do it here. Yep. Yes, of course. I mean, there's always worries, you know, among people in Taiwan about any slightest change in Trump's and in the U.S. strategy towards military and security issues. However, you know, I should say Greenland is a bit far away from us. So, I mean, we are not really talking about Greenland very much. I mean, we've been we've been curious, you know, our curiosity actually made us to to watch J.D. Vance's wife, you know, tour or cancel tour in Greenland.

18:13I mean, that's what we're talking, you know, at our tea sessions. But apart from that, not really, you know, we're not paying too much attention to Greenland yet. But sorry, I was going to ask you to sort of the idea of is this psychological sort of warfare that Trump administration is up against or is implementing right now? They're talking about Greenland, sort of capital G Greenland. But at the same time, this is about sort of flexing your military power and allowing for China to kind of do what they want to do, right? Yes, obviously, you know, there's a sign of approaching between the Trump administration and Beijing.

18:54And that is a worrying sign for the people in Taiwan. Because, I mean, if, you know, say Elon Musk, you know, he's becoming quite a bit of a China's fan. And as he exudes his influence over the administration there, then people in Taiwan are threatening that he may do something to allow the Chinese military, for example, to do more activities in the Taiwan street. And that obviously threatens our security firsthand. Now, there's been a couple of stories that I've been reading in some of the business paper with Taiwan accusing Chinese chip makers of illegally poaching engineers from Taiwan. Give us a picture at the moment inside Taiwan of conversations about China and China's ambitions towards Taiwan.

19:47Well, economic espionage is something that we've known for a long time. So in Taiwanese media, almost every week, I think, We read something about some espionage cases. Some people got suspected of spying for China. Chip industry is the biggest income source for Taiwan. And it is something that the Taiwanese are very, very proud of. It's not only about money, but it's also about Taiwan's pride and resilience. So, of course, people are really sensitive about that. But I mean, curiously, you look around in the Philippines, in Vietnam and other countries as well. They've been talking about Chinese espionage as well.

20:35So that's because of the tension, the geopolitical tension in the region. I'm sure we'll see more and more people actually being suspected of doing something untoward for China. And, you know, Taiwan obviously is a very good example of that. Andy, because technology is moving so quickly, you know, we've talked in the past, haven't we, a lot about espionage, about spying. Do you think we don't focus enough on industrial espionage? Because, you know, technical secrets, you know, secrets about making chips, secrets about AI, that is going to have huge, not just security implications, but huge economic implications as well.

21:16Well, no, I think you're exactly right, Rahul. And sort of the idea of and this this harkens back to previous administrations to sort of the worry and the concern about IP intellectual property, you know, when it comes to technology. And there's big concern about the Chinese sort of figuring out how to, even if it's not directly stealing that intellectual property, figuring out a way to, you know, sort of re-implement or sort of hack in a way that makes sense to commercialize it. No, I think that's exactly right. And I think the sort of the warfare of information, I think that is 100 percent going to be a part of certainly this administration's concern.

21:59I hope that we're sort of thinking about the idea of information not getting where it needs to go or not getting where it doesn't need to go, as it were. I think you're exactly right. I think it's concern for not just the intellectual property, but the economics of sort of saving that technology. Andy, yeah, interesting thoughts there. Na, a lot more to come for me, I know, in the second half of the program. Of course, when we're talking about chips and why the Chinese would be looking to lure chip makers from Taiwan, well, it is really the center of the chip. The global chip industry is there, based in Taiwan, where Na is.

22:36Right, when we come back, we're going to be talking about Elon Musk, not about influence on the government, about X. And guess what? We're going to have a bit of tariff talk in the second half of the programme.

23:03You're listening to Business Matters here on the BBC World Service. We've got Andy there in Texas, in the US. We have got Naa there in Taipei, in Taiwan. Quick question to both of you as we get into our next story. Nah, are you on X? Do you use it very much? Yes, I'm definitely on X. I use it every day. Yeah, I'm a very active user. Good, good. Well, we're going to check out a little bit later when the program's finished. What about you, Andy? Are you somebody who's regularly posting on X nowadays? You know what's funny is that when I was at my previous job, I was on X all the time as a daily reporter.

23:41and then I'm not kidding you, I got kicked off of X because I changed jobs. Really? And so I have not been allowed to be on the platform. Do you miss it? No, God, no, not at all. I don't think in the years I've been on this program, I've ever heard you answer a question as quickly as you answered that one. The reason we're talking about X is because Elon Musk says His artificial intelligence setup, XAI, has acquired X, the social media platform, for$33 billion. That's when you take into account the debt that's coming with it. Chris Lowe is chief economist at FHN Financial in New York. A perfect fit, though, because X is the way most users access the Grok AI that XAI runs.

24:29It also takes it off his hands and replenishes his cash at a time when some of his businesses are suffering for political reasons. Chris, you've got 30 seconds here. Why would he sell one company to another company? Well, because the AI company is much more viable in the marketplace. It has a higher market cap and it takes the X platform off his hands, ultimately can become a public company, making him less of a lightning rod for the company itself. Do you think that's going to happen, Andy? Elon Musk less of a lightning rod for X? Well, that's what I was going to say. Chris sort of fails to recognize that that's exactly sort of what Elon Musk seems to want to do is just be a lightning rod.

25:21You know, it's funny because Musk has done this before. It was sort of the SolarCity acquisition. He likes to I mean, this is a merger at the end of the day, right? Like you can call it whatever you want. You can call it an acquisition. But it's basically a merger of two private companies owned by the same dude. Um, I, I, I don't know that, um, you know, I don't know that his involvement in the social media platform is going to change at all. He's incredibly active. Um, and so I, I don't know that this is, I mean, maybe it makes business sense. It probably does make business sense for him. Um, because, you know, Twitter formerly or former Twitter X is, is suffering.

26:05it might make sense financially, but I don't think necessarily it means that he's not going to be involved. Na, in terms of something that you said before that really intrigued me with Elon Musk, obviously quite close to the Chinese, what sort of impact does that have on his standing in Taiwan? Well, no, Taiwan doesn't like the fact that Musk likes China and that, you know, doesn't like the fact that he's becoming China's number one fan. on X, basically. But I may have got to remember that in China, no one can access X. I mean, the Chinese have millions of other social media platforms that they exchange ideas and talk business.

26:47You know, you have WeChat, Weixin, we have Weibo, we have Xia Hongshu. So lots of platforms, and the Chinese people actually really don't care about X. So for that very reason, the people in Taiwan actually don't think that, you know, the fact that Musk is going to change hands between his AI company and X is going to make any big impact. But I mean, back to the point, the sympathy that Musk has for China, of course, it puts Taiwanese people in a situation in the position that they don't really sympathize with his business deals, especially in China. I mean, he secure factories in China for his Tesla cars and he's doing more and more business with Beijing.

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27:34Yep, which, you know, with the size of the market there is, I suppose, understandable in the business sense. Right. Shall we talk tariffs now for a little bit? They had a phone call, Donald Trump and Mark Carney with each other. They both said it went extremely well, but neither seems to have changed their position when it comes to tariffs. We wanted to think about how should countries respond to Donald Trump's proposed and implemented tariffs? So here's Larry Summers, former US Treasury Secretary. I think the system in general functions best when in international negotiation, countries are prepared to stand up for their own interests.

28:14So I think the instinct that a number of countries have had to find politically sensitive sectors in the United States and use them for retaliation is a warranted one. So is that happening? Somebody who's been looking into it is Robert Maxson from the Brookings Institute. He's been looking at where those retaliatory tariffs are likely and who they're likely to target in the US. I think that the takeaway, right, is foreign countries have maps of the US as well. They know what industries to target that will not only have economic impacts for US businesses, but political ones for both Donald Trump's core supporters and I think the Republican Party writ large.

28:55So which areas are they targeting of the US? Yeah. So you see these foreign tariffs that are impacting places and industries that are really symbolic, I think, to how Donald Trump fashions himself. You know, he sees himself as being a champion for rural farmers, as bringing jobs back in the manufacturing and fossil fuel sectors. Those are the places and the industries that other countries are retaliating against, right? You see Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa, Arkansas, really all of these swing Midwest and southern states that form the core of Donald Trump's voting bloc in 2016 and then again in 2024.

29:35Those are the states that are most exposed to these tariffs. And the reason that is is you see agricultural products, manufactured products and fossil fuel energy products being three of the main areas that are being impacted. We've been here before, haven't we, in Donald Trump's first administration where we saw retaliatory tariffs from the Chinese. Did they work? I mean, did it have a political impact? It depends on what you mean when you say work, right? So foreign governments are really willing to forego some of their own economic benefits to hurt the U.S. You know, these tariffs are likely hurting businesses in China, in Canada and in the EU, just as U.S.

30:20tariffs are disrupting U.S. businesses. But I think that politically, you know, many voters, especially in Canada, in the EU, are really willing to back their leaders on this. They really want to see their leaders standing up to Donald Trump. This feels different from the first Trump administration in that there seems to be, or it seems likely that we could see a much wider spread use of tariffs. So that means the retaliatory actions could be a lot bigger. Will it mainly still be targeting those Republican areas or could Democrat areas be targeted as well? Well, at a certain point, you know, if we're talking blanket retaliatory tariffs or if we're talking, you know, what might be potentially a reversion to kind of the pre-World War II norm of having tariffs rather than free trade as the basis for global commerce, then pretty much every place is going to be impacted in some regard.

31:13And you saw that already, right? There were Harris voting areas that were absolutely impacted. But in the US, what I'll say is that there's a distinct geography for some industries, manufacturing, farming, energy. These communities tend to be places that vote Republican more frequently. And they're also the communities that have the most goods that you can export. And I suppose what we're talking about is that in countries like China, that you have people sitting there almost working out county by county, which areas are going to be affected the most sitting in front of a U.S. map and say, look, we need to put tariffs on these areas to hurt Donald Trump the most.

31:55I would say it's not just probably that's happening. My bet is that is what's happening. This is all public information for the US. This data is very freely publicly available. And it's quite straightforward to build a lot of these models. I'm sure foreign countries are doing exactly what you laid out there. Robert Maxson, the anti-Texas, obviously a Republican area. Is there a fear that some of the tariffs and big energy areas as well could hit Texas? And not just in manufacturing, but also in service, it's got a huge IT sector. Oh, my God. Not a fear, but a, hey, this is happening right now.

32:30I mean, I was out in the Prairie Basin, right? Like the ground zero of oil production in the United States, but certainly here in Texas, two weeks ago. And I talked to some of extremely conservative folks who were just beside themselves about the tariffs and what it was going to do to their businesses and what it was going to do to exactly the sort of energy production. It's funny because they He kept telling me that President Trump was talking out of both sides of his mouth in that he wanted to, quote unquote, drill baby drill. He wanted to sort of talk about oil and gas exploration, you know, sort of building that industry.

33:06At the same time, he's making it extremely expensive for these companies to do exactly that. And so you kind of can't have it both ways. It was so funny because it was just like I'm sitting there at lunch with somebody who's extremely conservative saying I can't get behind these tariffs because it's affecting me and my business directly. And so – and exactly to sort of the point of this is affecting very, very conservative parts of his voting base. I just don't know where we go from here. Well, could it be that some of the stuff does go to Vietnam? I know you've been there recently and of course it's a place that you know extremely well.

33:47Is Vietnam one of the few countries that could benefit from all of this? Well, Vietnam actually has benefited from this in the last year or so. But I mean, the prospect of higher tariffs is not going to make the Vietnamese very happy. But I know that, you know, for the last two, three years, the Vietnamese government has already been preparing for this, It's not very far future when the tariffs from the U.S. will be really, really increased. Yes. When you say they're prepared for it, how have they been preparing for it? Well, they've been talking about, you know, they're trying to stop countries like China.

34:31You know, China has been investing a lot in Vietnam and using Vietnam as the third country to export back to the U.S. So they've been talking about preventing the Chinese companies from doing so. They've been also talking about opening the Vietnamese market for more U.S. products. We've seen that, you know, programs for Vietnam to import more, saying aircrafts, they even want to open their military market, you know, to import more military equipment and weapons from the U.S. So that is unprecedented because Vietnam has been so sensitive about opening the military sector to anyone. And, you know, the Vietnamese government, knowing that they need to appease Donald Trump, have been offering Trump businesses to do lots of projects in Vietnam.

35:24And it is also unprecedented. You know, golf courses, resorts, property projects. So, you know, all those gesture to show that Vietnam's goodwill is very big. You know, Vietnam welcomes other measures to reduce the hostility between the US and Vietnam. Well, I'm sure that Donald Trump would love the idea of golf courses being built. He's building it, definitely. Absolutely. Anywhere in the world. Right, we're going to continue the conversation about tariffs next week because, of course, April 2nd is going to be an interesting day, to put it mildly. Let's move away from that and turn to the entertainment industry.

36:08Huge business as well. People who compose music can live in fear of the accusation that they are copying someone else's work. There's always a chance, isn't there, that you've heard something and it's somehow lodged in that brain and comes out in a song a little bit later. Well, songwriter Dua Lipa has just secured the dismissal of a legal case in which he was accused of copying for the hit single Levitating. Robert Jacobs is an entertainment lawyer with Manet, Phelps and Phillips Lawtham. He's based in Los Angeles. Robert, thanks for joining us and being patient as well while we talked about Taris.

36:40In the Dua Lipa case, it must be really difficult to decide here because the dividing line between copying something and being inspired by something is so narrow, isn't it? It can be, absolutely. Unfortunately, some of these cases end up focusing on a lot of minutia that sort of the lay people, you know, general public may not even consider. And so it's a kind of a tortured process. As somebody who represents a lot of creators, I've kind of been on both sides of these issues. and, you know, it can be difficult to discern. But this one, I'm not surprised at all by the outcome. OK, not surprised, but you obviously have been, as you said, on both sides of the cases.

37:28How do you discern? How does a judge discern across that dividing line? When you're looking at a case with that legal brain of yours, what are the sort of points that you go, oh, yeah, that's copying, not inspiration? So point number one, obviously, is do I hear anything? I don't trust myself, of course. Because there are experts that you have to bring into these kinds of cases. So I always do so. So if I hear something, it feels like, you know, it may be something that's a problem or something that might be of interest to a client, then I'll consult with an expert to weigh in. And they'll generally look at more of the sort of cold, hard facts, the black and white of the musical composition and analyze it kind of objectively.

38:12And that, you know, and that is one part of the equation. and often in these cases, including here, ends up being the most significant part of the equation. Are you seeing more cases now like this? Because, you know, I suppose in the world that we live in, a lot of artists are looking what other people are doing, particularly big artists, and saying, hey, I hear a bit of my song in there. That artist is making a lot of money. I might bring a case here. Yeah, so about 10 years ago or so, There was a case involving a very popular song called Blurred Lines and, you know, a claim about Marvin Gaye's state.

38:53That kind of opened more of a floodgates to these kinds of claims more broadly. That has tapered off a bit over the last, I would say, handful of years because of certain decisions cutting back on what I would say was a more liberal approach toward plaintiff's claims. that was discerned in the Blurred Lines case. So it's actually, I think, going back the other way where courts are a little less welcoming of these claims. But that doesn't change what people are thinking about and thinking, well, maybe I have a crack at it here. Yeah, Robert, stay with us because I want to talk about AI in a second with you.

39:33But Andy, when you're listening to a song, I don't know what sort of music you're into, but do you sit there and listen sometimes and go, I've heard that before? yeah no I did this the other day actually it was like but but it was also sort of a sampling of a song that I knew and it was one of those like I think that's part of um you know that song is from the 70s but it was part of a hip-hop song so it's okay you know yeah I don't know of course I don't know sort of the legality of it but no absolutely there are so many references um on purpose to songs that are actually being used and I think you know of course I produced radio so I'm like is that fair use?

40:13I think about those things all the time, right? Yeah, we all do, don't we? Now, is that an issue around you, where you are as well? Because, you know, there's a huge music industry, isn't there, in South East Asia? Look at what's happening with K-pop, etc. Are we looking at similar cases there? Do we see these sort of cases? Well, in Taiwan, I think, you know, they are quite strict about copyright, especially when it comes to song and music. But in Vietnam, it's a totally different picture. I think, you know, the authorities have been trying to tighten the regulations over copyright. But I mean, things like cover music, I mean, different artists cover very popular songs that happen every day.

40:55And I'm not sure that they pay any copyright fee at all to the original songwriters and composers. So, yeah, that's a big problem. But, you know, people are aware of that. And I think the government is trying to do something about that. Robert, let's throw the next curveball into this whole discussion. And that is AI, because that opens up a different can of worms, doesn't it? It does. And everybody has been focused on that here in the States, certainly for the last couple of years. there's only been limited traction gained by the claims against the AI platforms so far on the copyright front. There have been several battles, but the war really is continuing.

41:43And so the concern, you know, remains what happens to my work when it gets ingested? Where is it going to show up? How do I track it? On and on and on. My guess is in the long run, there will be some sort of blanket licensing scheme that will facilitate the use by these platforms and compensation for creators. Rob, it's been a real pleasure having you on the program. I look forward to speaking to you again. And we're going to now move from entertainment, which I love, to another thing that I love, which is eating and food. Because running a restaurant in China these days is tough. Data from cities like Beijing shows that restaurant profits dropped by 81 % in 2024 compared to a year earlier.

42:23So what's going wrong? China correspondent or marketplace is China correspondent to be perfectly fair, our sister station Jennifer Pack has this story from Shanghai. If you came to Shanghai late last year and asked where you could have a nice, not too expensive brunch with free flowing alcohol, a popular choice would have been the bowl and claw. Housed in a beautiful villa style lane house, three floors. Rachel Kwok writes a Shanghai-based food and drink blog called Nomfluence. She says the Bull and Claw was part of a handful of restaurants and gyms owned by the Australian firm Camel Hospitality Group, which was established in 2010, when times were good.

43:02They were printing money back in the day. Like a lot of sectors in China. Fast forward to last November, when Camel Group sent a WeChat message to all its staff. One of them was graphics designer Joan Dye. The document said that the company had dissolved and every employee's contract had been terminated. It said our salaries would be prioritized as soon as the company's bankruptcy liquidation was complete. Then the boss disappeared and he hasn't answered our calls since. He just ghosted us. The number you have dialed is not in service. I also tried, without luck, to reach former bosses at Camel Hospitality for comment.

43:42I did get one of the vendors it owes money to. Luckily, not a lot, says Maria, who supplies alcohol to restaurants. We're not using her full name because she worries about official retaliation, for speaking about the economy in less than glowing terms. I think it's extremely hard to get people to dine out right now. She says that's because of China's real estate slump. People here invest most, if not all, of their savings in property, which used to be a safe bet until the market dropped. So when real estate has started to sort of hit this brick wall, A lot of people have seen their main assets decrease quite a lot, and therefore they're tightening their purse strings.

44:21Meantime, rents, labor costs and social security taxes are all going up, says Bostonian Scott Minoy. He opened a popular restaurant chain in China called Element Fresh that serves sandwiches, salads and smoothies. For a decade, all went well. But then... We started to see per-restaurant profit level decline because simply revenue would go up by 5%, costs go up by 15%, 20 % year on year. Restaurateur Bryce Jenner once ran seven sports bars and restaurants. Now just one is left. He says the beginning of the end for his business came in 2018 when Chinese leader Xi Jinping got rid of the two-term limit on the presidency, shaking consumer confidence.

45:03The optimism went. Then came the COVID lockdowns. Foreigners, key customers for Jenner and the Camel Group, left China. Jenner says he's friends with the Camel Group owners, and the last time they met was over a year ago to discuss what they should do in the downturn. I said, hey, maybe we should fight this together. And they said, oh, yeah, I don't know. And we all sat there pretty sad. In the end, Jenner sold off parts of his business, closed others. But even downsizing costs money. See, in China, companies legally need to pay severance to their workers. Again, Bostonian entrepreneur Scott Minoy.

45:40And if we let everybody go that we should let go so that we can cut down on payroll, well, we'll be in the red immediately with the severance payment. So you kind of hang on one more month, two more months, three more months. Eventually, you run out of cash. And that's what happened to us. He quit the business three years before his Element Fresh chain officially closed in 2021. Today, some of the more established restaurants are still packed, says Bryce Jenner, though just one of his seven restaurants and bars has survived. But, you know, people aren't buying the drinks and they're not buying the extra appetizers.

46:14They're not buying that bowl of soup. They're not buying the coffees. And until China's overall economy improves, restaurant profits will likely be very thin. Jennifer Pack there reporting from Shanghai. Hi. You know, now friends of mine who've been to Taiwan rave about the beef noodle soup that people have. People out there, they say it's absolutely amazing. If I was to come to Taipei, would beef noodle soup vendors, are they struggling at the moment? Is it a similar story with restaurants or are they pretty full? No, not really. I think Taiwanese eating scene is still very much alive and kicking.

46:49You're welcome anytime to Taiwan and I'll give you to a bowl of beef noodle. Sure. We're also quite famous for the soup dumplings. And that business is also, you know, really, really doing very, very well. So, yeah, no worry there. I think it's different with China. The economy here is doing really well. And people are willing to spend a lot of money on eating out and drinking out. So, yeah, that's a different picture. Texas barbecues, how are they doing, Andy? I mean, you know, there's a lot of talk, isn't there, about people getting worried. And, you know, we were talking to the mayor of a town in Canada earlier in the week who was saying that people are beginning to think, oh, time to keep some money in the old pockets.

47:33Is that happening in Texas? Rahul, everybody's always thinking about keeping money in the pocket, except when it comes to barbecue, right? No, no. Honestly, people are willing to spend, especially when it comes to really good barbecue here in Texas. And if you're talking about drinking a beer and eating some barbecue and talking to friends, like the market there is it's it's so it's so salient. It's it's absolutely fun. I am so hungry now after this. It's like two o 'clock in the morning. I was supposed to go to sleep after. And for people who don't know, what would you get in a Texas barbecue?

48:07So the first order, you you order some brisket and then you order some pork ribs. And then probably if they have it, you order some beef ribs and some turkey. That's your order. Naa, do you like the sound of that? I'm so hungry now, too. I need some lunch. Yeah, well, it sounds delicious, Andy. It does sound. Any Texas barbecue in Taiwan? I suppose not. Nobody's opened one up yet. No, not really. We'll get over there. Okay. Listen, thank you both very much indeed. And I thank you so much for guiding us through the stories that we've had this evening. Andy, always a delight to have you on the programme.

48:47We will be back, same time, same place, next week. Of course, a big one, April 2nd coming. Donald Trump will unveil those retaliatory tariffs. We'll tell you all about them here on our business programmes.

From the publisher

Myanmar's military leader, Min Aung Hlaing, has made a rare request for international help after a powerful earthquake hit the centre of the country, flattening buildings and bridges.

The US vice president, JD Vance, has accused Denmark of underinvesting in the security of Greenland and leaving it vulnerable.

And Rahul Tandon will discuss how Dua Lipa has won the dismissal of a lawsuit that accused her of copying her hit single Levitating from two other songs.

We will be joined throughout the programme by two guests on opposite sides of the world – From the US, Andy Uhler, Journalism fellow at the University of Texas Energy Institute and Columbia University's Centre on Global Energy Policy – and Nga Pham, a journalist based in Taiwan.

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