How US Troops Could Go About Taking Hormuz

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1:20Meet WISE, the savvy way to handle your money internationally. Hold balances in up to 40 currencies with the mid-market exchange rate on every conversion. Whether you're receiving payments from tenants abroad, earning as a digital nomad, or converting dividends from your international investments, the WISE multi-currency account is for you. Be smart. Get WISE. Download the WISE app today or visit WISE.com. Terms and conditions apply. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. The war in Iran is four weeks old. The U.S. has deployed tens of billions of dollars of munitions in thousands of strikes, and more than 4 ,500 people have been killed in the conflict.

2:03That's according to governments and non-government agencies. And despite 10 ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, in what President Trump has described as a gesture of goodwill, the Strait remains effectively shut, choking off roughly 20 percent of the world's oil and gas, which has sent energy prices soaring. President Trump has threatened to strike Iranian energy sites if the country doesn't come to terms and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. And he's issued a deadline that he's now pushed back twice. The game out, how the conflict could unfold from here, I reached out to someone who is no stranger to high-stakes military decisions, retired Admiral James Stavridis, who's also a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion.

2:45He is, among other things, the longest-serving combatant commander in recent U.S. history and the co-author of a series of novels. The latest, 2084, will be published in May. And Admiral Stavridis sees the pressure rising on both sides to make a deal. There are two clocks ticking right now. One clock that's ticking is in Washington, and it's for the Trump administration. It's the gas prices. It's the cost of doing this. It's the public support. And it's November. It's the election in November. So that clock is ticking and certainly it strikes midnight pretty soon. And for Iran? The clock here is their infrastructure.

3:28How much of their military do we destroy? How much of their defense industrial base? How much of their oil? How much of their electric grid? That clock strikes midnight in probably three to four weeks. He says both countries have good reason to come to the table, but that's far from a guarantee. I think there's a two in three chance we get to a negotiated conclusion, call it 65 percent. But the bad news is, and this is uncomfortably high, one in three chance, therefore, a 35 percent chance that the Iranians do not follow the logic of this situation, decide they want to keep fighting. We keep bombing.

4:13We then go after their critical infrastructure. They go after Gulf-Arab critical infrastructure. Then we have a much more serious global economic challenge ahead.

4:28I'm David Gurra, and this is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. Today on the show, retired Admiral James Tavridis on how sending thousands more U.S. troops to the Middle East changes the chances of a diplomatic resolution to the Iran war and raises the risks.

4:49Admiral Stravitas, you were the head of U.S. Southern Command, U.S. European Command, and from 2009 to 2013, you were Supreme Allied Commander of NATO. But before all of that, back in the 1980s, you spent some time as a young sailor helping ships make their way through the Persian Gulf. So before we get into the details of U.S. strategy and options in this particular war. I'm curious how that time in your life shapes the way that you're thinking about this conflict. It does immensely. And that's a smart question. This was in the late 1980s, and we were escorting Kuwaiti tankers, which were flagged to the United States through the strait.

5:25This is during the Iran-Iraq war, when the Iranians again closed the Strait of Hormuz. Two takeaways that continue to rattle around in this grizzled old admiral's brain. One is it's hard. It's navigationally challenging. And to do it under a rain and fire, as we did in the 1980s, is doubly challenging. But a key thing to remember is they did not have drones then. Number two, you have to open the strait. You cannot cede control of it to this rotten theocracy in Tehran. So how we get there, I hope we can do it diplomatically. But if necessary, see paragraph one. We will open that strait. In recent weeks, the U.S.

6:13has ordered some 7 ,000 more troops to the Middle East, around 1 ,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne, 5 ,000 troops from two Marine Expeditionary Units. The 31st, which deployed from Okinawa, should arrive in the coming days. The 11th MEU will be in the region in three to four weeks. What is the decision to send those troops indicate to you about the broader objective here that the U.S. has at this point? My supposition is that President Trump wants those troops to kind of hold them like a hammer over the head of the Iranians and threaten actually seizing Karg Island, which, as you know, David, is 90 percent of the Iranian oil flows through it.

6:51You really put a stake in the heart of the Iranian oil based economy. So President Trump is signaling to the Iranians, not only am I bombing broadly across the entire vast nation of Iran, but I also have precise boots on the ground options. 7 ,000 troops is not a huge force. They're not going to conquer Iran, but you could use them in precise ways to try and move a negotiation along. Could you walk us through what the stages of a mission to take Carg Island would look like and maybe give us your sense of what the U.S. could stand to gain or lose by undertaking a mission like that? Sure. Let's go back to those Marines at sea.

7:35The first tranche of them, the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, have arrived just outside of the Strait of Hormuz. They got to get through the strait, which the Iranians will oppose deeply. They got to get through mines, ballistic missiles, small boats, above all the drones. Once they get through that, now they still, David, have 350 miles to go to get up to Karg Island. In that stretch of water, Iran will continue to attack them. I could see terrorist attacks against them from small Iranian, supposedly civilian craft, more drone attacks. Now you're off the coast of Karg Island. So here you depend on Central Command air cover to make sure there's a bubble over you in effect.

8:25And at the sea, the Fifth Fleet is protecting you. Now those Marines will get on Osprey aircraft. They're kind of in between a plane and a helicopter. They'll start going ashore by air. There'll be some seaborne component of them. You bring them ashore at a relatively undefended corner of this island. CARG is about a third of the size of Manhattan. You pick a couple of points, bring in the Marines, seize the base. Now they're locked down in a well-known place, and it's within artillery range of the Iranian coast itself. and there are 20 ,000, maybe 30 ,000 Iranians on the island that you have to control.

9:10Most of them are civilian oil workers who just want to stay out of the line of fire. They have no interest in getting in the crossfire between U.S. Marines and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. If I'm Tehran right now, I'm increasing my forces on the island. I'm putting booby traps in place, putting landmines at the places where I think you might land. I'm putting drones overhead, very small ones, so I can maintain surveillance. So they're preparing for this. It's a very challenging mission. It's kind of easy for me to sit here and say it, but to execute that mission will be costly in terms of lives and equipment.

9:52Final point, if I were advising the administration, I would say maybe a better idea, blockade the island. Have the Fifth Fleet just shut it down. Tell the world, don't bother going to Karg Island. It's no longer open for business. Tell the Iranians, you can do all you want with the oil that's stored there, but it's not leaving Karg Island. I think that might make more sense. What else might be on the table for the U.S. as they think about where they might deploy troops in this region? I'll give you three other options that kind of pop into my head. One is the island of Laracque, right at the very northern tip of the Strait of Hormuz.

10:36And Laracque is very important because it controls the top of the strait. It's heavily defended, but seizing that, I think, would have some military utility. A second one is there are a pair of islands that are claimed by both Iran and the UAE. This is Aba Musa Island and Tum also in that vicinity. So if you took those islands, you'd have land right at the top of the strait that would help you defend it and keep it open. But if you really want to lock down the strait, you've got to control both sides of it, both the Arab side and the Persian side. And then third, and actually more dangerous than anything we've talked about, would be going into Iran, deeply into Iran, and going after the nuclear material that they have.

11:33They have 900 pounds, maybe 1 ,000 pounds of enriched uranium. It's not quite weapons grade, but it's very close to it. Where is it? It's at the bottom of supposedly of Isfahan under concrete. You'd have to have a thousand plus troops to defend the area, put up all the air cover and then have the seals and the Green Berets with, wait for it, civilian technicians who know how to manage all this. It is a very difficult mission. It would be literally the largest special forces operation in history. I want to say I'm not advocating those missions. I firmly believe we need to get to a diplomatic resolution here.

12:22But soft power without the ability to apply hard power is no power. So move the forces, set the table, and then go to the Iranians and say, look, we really want to settle this at a negotiating table. not on Karg Island. I want to shift to opening up the Strait, and you've laid out ways in which the U.S. could take over Karg Island, other islands. Do those military options do much to hasten the process of getting oil flowing once again? Just draw the line for me from doing that to effectively opening up this Strait once again. The theory of the case is that by holding hostage this 90 % of the Iranian oil, we could then go to the Iranians and say, Karg Island, nice little operation you got going here.

13:16Boy, it'd be a shame if we had to blow it all up. How about if we go ahead and open the straits and then we can have a conversation. Let's get to a very simple deal at this point. We stop bombing. You open the strait. And what would that take? Let's start by observing that what Iran has done is they have not hard closed the strait. They have virtually closed the strait. And they've done that by blowing up a handful of tankers, saying any other tankers we don't like, we're going to blow up with drones. They put some smart minds in the water that they have control over, but they haven't really hard closed it.

13:55I think it's worth noting they haven't done that, which means there's still room to maneuver here. And I would say that if we were to fail diplomatically and have to militarily open the strait, you need more minesweepers to be on station prepared. You need more guided missile frigates, destroyers, cruisers to protect shipping going in and out. You need special forces on small boats to counter the Iranian small boats. You need to destroy more of the Iranian attack capability along the littoral of the strait itself. But again, it'll be costly. It would be far better that we got to a negotiation here.

14:38Is it possible to do that kind of clearing that you just described militarily while fighting is still underway or does the fighting have to cease? Effectively, fighting has to cease as follows. You have to bring complete air superiority over that particular area, meaning you've got to be able to stop the drones. You have to go after the longer-range Iranian capabilities. By the way, there happens to be an admiral in overall command of the mission, Admiral Brad Cooper, the commander of Central Command. That's what Admiral Cooper is doing right now. And I think the Iranians are cognizant of that as well.

15:21Retired Admiral James Tavridis was the supreme allied commander of NATO. After the break, his thoughts on what role the alliance could play in helping to reopen the strait.

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16:13Life on the other side of the hill is giving grown-up vibes, but over here on my podcast, Untraditionally Lala, I'm still that Lala you either love or love to hate. I've been full-on oversharing with fans, family, and former frenemies like Tom Schwartz. I had a little bone to pick with Schwartzy when he came on the pod. You don't feel bad that you told me I was a bootleg housewife? I almost flipped a pizza in your lap. Oh my god, I literally forgot about that until just now. Sorry, I don't want to blame alcohol. I got to blame that one on the alcohol. This is about laughing and learning when life just keeps on lifing.

16:46Because I make mistakes so that you guys don't have to. We're growing, we're thriving, and yes, sometimes we're barely surviving. But we do it all with love. It's unruly, it's unafraid, it's untraditionally la-la. Listen to Untraditionally La-la on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Anna Navarro, and on my new podcast, Bleep with Anna Navarro. I'm talking to the people closest to the biggest issues happening in your community and around the world. Because I know deep down inside right now, we are all cursing and asking, what the bleep is going on? I'm talking to people like Julie K.

17:23Brown, who broke the explosive story on Jeffrey Epstein in 2018. These victims have been let down time and time again. for decades and decades and decades by local law enforcement, by federal law enforcement, by administration after administration. The Justice Department, through I think we counted four presidential administrations, failed these victims. Listen to Bleep with Ana Navarro as part of the My Cultura podcast network. Available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

18:10You've had a lot of big jobs. You served as NATO Supreme Allied Commander. You've spoken passionately about the importance of that NATO alliance. This is what the president posted on social media on Thursday morning. NATO nations have done absolutely nothing to help with the lunatic nation now militarily decimated of Iran. The USA needs nothing from NATO, but never forget this very important point in time. Over the last few weeks, we've heard the president disparage longstanding U.S. allies, then call for their help, then criticize them once again. How do you see this conflict, the Iran war, impacting relationships between the U.S.

18:44and its allies, many of which were already under strain? We've been under kind of a roller coaster with NATO since Trump came back into office. The good news is NATO has been gradually increasing defense spending from, you know, kind of sub 2%. Now NATO's pushing up to 3.5%, maybe 4%, depending on how you score it. So that's a positive event. On the other hand, the Greenland episode, where the United States appeared to really lean in, talk about the 82nd Airborne. And I saw actual tweets from people saying, yeah, the 82nd's on their way to Nook, Greenland. That really rattled Europe's confidence in the United States.

19:30And by the way, I think the Danes would have fought. They would have blown up those runways. They would have put special forces there. That was a pretty dangerous moment for the alliance. That was kind of a trough. Now we're kind of, we've come back out of that. But now we have the current crisis in the Gulf. And so for the Europeans, as you assess their behavior, you need to kind of put it through the filter of how they've been treated in Trump one and in Trump two. We tend to not remember this in the United States somehow, but I commanded a mission in Afghanistan for four years. We were fighting in Afghanistan because we were attacked in New York and in Washington, D.C.

20:19Thousands of Americans were killed. We went to war. And who came with us? The Europeans. And they fought and died in great numbers. So don't tell me NATO hasn't stood with us in combat. Now we come to the current moment. By the way, President Trump tends to use the word NATO. He really means the European Union more than anything else, but he means the nations of Europe. I think President Trump would be wise to say to the Europeans, look, we've got the offensive part of this. We're going to do the bombing. We will put the troops on the ground if necessary. The Israelis are going to do the bombing.

21:02Europe, here's what we need. We need minesweepers. We need guided missile frigates. We need guided missile destroyers. We need you to help open the Strait of Hormuz. I think Europe would take that mission gladly. And Mark Routet, the Secretary General of NATO, former Prime Minister of the Netherlands, know him well. He's kind of nudging the European allies in that direction. I'm genuinely curious if there's been a moment in history where we've seen this much military might brought to an area and not used. I think of the conversation that was happening around Venezuela ahead of the capture of Nicolas Maduro.

21:41But there's an awful lot of equipment and personnel being brought to the Middle East now. I think of Chekhov's gun. If you see the gun, it has to be fired. As you think about history, have there been moments when there has been this much, again, military might marshaled and not used in the end? Not that immediately leaps to mind. You should ask Claude that question. But I think that what is germane is about 25 years ago, we marshaled this level of forces off of Iraq, and we did invade. And we were at war for 20 years. To me, that's the cautionary tale here. It's the forever wars. That's what we desperately must avoid.

22:22I think we will. Again, I think we will either negotiate or if we have to have boots on the ground, they'll be used in a precise, direct and military way. But let's remember, 25 years ago, we attacked Iraq 23 years ago, I suppose. And that experience was not the best for the United States. This is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura. The show is hosted by me, Sarah Holder, and Juan Ha. The show is made by Aaron Edwards, David Fox, Jeff Grokot, Eleanor Harrison Dengate, Patty Hirsch, Rachel Lewis-Kriskie, Katie McMurrin, Naomi Ng, Julia Press, Tracy Samuelson, Naomi Shaven, Alex Segura, Julia Weaver, Yang Yang, and Taka Yasuzawa.

23:05There's much more on Bloomberg.com. Get unlimited access to all of our coverage at a special rate for listeners at Bloomberg.com slash podcast offer. Thanks for listening. We'll be back on Monday.

23:28Hey there, folks, Amy Robach and TJ Holmes here. And we know there is a lot of news coming at you these days from the war with Iran to the ongoing Epstein fallout, government shutdowns, high-profile trials and what the hell is that Blake lively thing about anyway? We are on it every day, all day. Follow us, Amy and TJ, for news updates throughout the day. Listen to Amy and TJ on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

23:59Hello, gorgeous. It's Lala Kent, host of Untraditionally Lala. My days of filling up cups at Sur may be over, but I'm still loving life in the valley. Life on the other side of the hill is giving grown-up vibes, but over here on my podcast, Untraditionally Lala, I'm still that Lala you either love or love to hate. It's unruly, it's unafraid, it's Untraditionally Lala. Listen to Untraditionally Lala on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

24:28I'm Anna Navarro, and on my new podcast, Bleep with Anna Navarro, I'm talking to the people closest to the biggest issues happening in your community and around the world. Because I know deep down inside right now, we are all cursing and asking what the bleep is going on. Every week, I'm breaking down the biggest issues happening in our communities and around the world. I'm talking to people like Julie Kay Brown, who broke the explosive story on Jeffrey Epstein in 2018. The Justice Department, through we counted four presidential administrations, failed these victims. Listen to Bleep with Ana Navarro on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.