The Future of the Democratic Party Runs Through Michigan

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1:54Paid for by Public Investing. Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC Registered Advisor. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. While many folks have been enjoying beach trips and holiday getaways, Ron Brownstein and Nancy Cook have spent their summers looking ahead to the midterm elections. There have been more consequential primaries this year, Nancy, I think, than any year I can remember. I mean, there's kind of been this civil war going on in the Democratic Party.

2:37Yeah, I've been covering national politics since the 80s. I cannot remember a year when I have written as many stories about Democratic primaries or primaries in either party. Ron is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, and Nancy is a senior national political correspondent for Bloomberg News. And they've both been following races across the country, from Maine to Colorado, where centrist Democrats and progressives have been facing off for some key seats. In the history of the party, there is nothing quite as systematic as what we are seeing now on the left in terms of the infrastructure to find candidates, train candidates, fund candidates, support candidates.

3:14That structure and the success many of those left of center Democratic candidates have had have become a major theme this cycle. And they loom large over the future of the Democratic Party. The scorecard so far is that the left is clearly ascending, but still primarily in safe places. And that in the competitive districts, Democrats are still relying more on centrist nominees. But that firewall is breaking down. And Michigan next week is going to be critical in determining how far it breaks down.

3:53I'm David Gurra, and this is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. Today on the show, why the Democratic primaries in this midterm cycle matter, for control of Congress, for influence over the Democratic Party's priorities, and what the upcoming primary in Michigan in particular could signal about where things are headed in 2028 and beyond.

4:17A few days ahead of the primary in Michigan scheduled to take place on Tuesday, I sat down with Bloomberg's Nancy Cook and Ron Brownstein. And Nancy told me ideological infighting among Democrats is something she's tracking very closely. You know, so much of the Democratic primary process has been the party warring between moderates and progressives, between like sort of new economic policy ideas and old ones. I mean, the party is really in search of both leadership and its identity. And all of this is going to set the stage for what happens and what the 2028 presidential race looks like and what the field looks like.

4:53And so the primaries have been really important on the Democratic side. On that notion of there being a civil war within the Democratic Party, Ron, what kind of impact is that likely to have beyond these primaries, looking at the midterms and looking at the general election on the heels of that? Yeah. So most of the wins by the left have been in solidly blue places. The three Mamdani candidates all won in New York. Those are all districts where Harris won over 70 percent. Same thing with Colorado, safe district. But by and large, you know, the left hasn't really broken through. That's what makes the Michigan Senate race so important.

5:28And Nancy, you've written about the upcoming Democratic Senate primary in Michigan the other day. You called it, quote, one of the signature races of the year. Why is this particular race shaping up to be such a key battleground, a key litmus here for Democrats? It's so important because Michigan is a swing state and it will be in 2028 in the presidential race. And so it will offer us all these clues about both parties and what is going to be what's going to work in this battleground state for the presidential election. But it's been so important because in Michigan, you have El Saeed, who is a former health official, who is a progressive.

6:04He is backed by Senators Warren and Sanders. He is giving rise to a lot of the economic populism. He's anti-incumbent. And, you know, all these things that the progressive movement really wants against Haley Stevens, who is a current House member. And this is for the Senate seat. And, you know, she's backed by Chuck Schumer and also APEC, which is the powerful pro-Israel lobbying group. Gretchen Whitmer, the popular, very popular Michigan governor, just came out and endorsed her. And underlying that is a very interesting, growing sentiment in the party that is increasingly anti-Israel. And so El Saeed and the progressive wing are increasingly skeptical of the U.S.

6:45giving so much support to Israel. And so that is sort of an undercurrent in this race as well. Ron, you've written about how Michigan's demographics offer Democrats this kind of unique opportunity to try to win back the populist periphery voters that both Democrats and Republicans are trying to court this election cycle. I know you're planning a trip to Michigan in the coming days. What is the outcome of that primary going to tell you about that broader effort, the effort to get those voters to go to one side or another? One of the things we've seen in these Democratic primaries is that the left candidates who are styling themselves basically as class warriors, right?

7:23The Sanders argument is that the way you win back the working class is through undiluted economic populism. And that, in effect, that will trump the cultural issues that Republicans have used to peel away first white voters and then non-white working class voters really since the 60s. Well, so far in the primaries, you know, the left candidates, the working class heroes are depending primarily on college educated and younger voters. I mean, that's been their coalition in New York and elsewhere. So, you know, in public polling that's been available in Michigan, you're seeing the same pattern. I do think the establishment wing of the Democratic Party has really woken up to how competitive this race is in the last few weeks and has rung the bell.

8:07And I think that that's why you saw Governor Whitmer come out and endorse Haley Stevens. She is heavily going after Black voters, you know, in the areas around Detroit. We've seen her do tons of campaign stops. She was at, you know, Black churches on Sunday. And so I think that if Haley Stevens is able to pull this off, part of it will be because she has gotten a huge amount of support from Black voters. Yeah. Stevens is, as Nancy said, relying heavily on black voters, but also leading among non-college white voters and older voters. And El Saeed's coalition is basically college-educated voters and young people.

8:45You know, ultimately, in the general election, Democrats are going to do fine with college-educated voters. I mean, Trump's approval among them is significantly weaker even than it was in the first term. And I think Democrats are going to run very well in places where there is a big white-collar population. The problem is they won an awful lot of those places already in 2018. There aren't that many of them left to win in the House. In the House, the battleground, as David, as you noted, is primarily these working-class districts. There, Trump's approval has sagged as well, but those voters have more residual resistance to voting for Democrats, even when they're down on Trump.

9:23So, you know, you'd have to say Stevens is better positioned to win some of those voters back than El Saeed. That's the fear of Democrats, that his far left positions will allow the Republicans to hold even a lot of blue collar white voters who feel disappointed in what they've gotten out of Trump. Nancy, I want to spend a moment on this Democratic Socialist label. And there is kind of a fascinating moment during the Democratic debate in the Wisconsin governor's race where you saw a candidate kind of disavow allegiance to the Democratic Socialists of America, but say that she espouses or agrees with a lot of the policies of that group.

9:54How did we get to the point today, Nancy, where this group, members of it, are really vying to kind of chart the future of the Democratic Party more broadly? Well, I think the Democratic Party, you know, is still licking its wounds from 2024. Trump won all seven battleground states there. Kamala Harris spent a billion dollars to try to win that seat and was not successful. And I think that there's just a power vacuum, right? And so anytime there's a power vacuum, it means that a lot of different people can come into it. And, you know, the Democratic Socialists is one piece of that that's coming into that.

10:29I talked to a lot of Republicans. Privately, they are very nervous about the midterms. And there was a CNN poll that came out this week, which shockingly showed that about 73 % of voters say that Trump is not paying attention to their own individual concerns. I mean, that is a really startling number when I look at it. And so what Republicans are trying to do is say, hey, you know, forget what we've done or our record or Trump. I mean, Republicans are entirely in power in Washington and they're trying to ask voters to forget about that. And then meanwhile, hold up these Democratic Socialist candidates, of which, yes, there are an increasing number, but not that many, and sort of hold them up as the boogeyman for the entire Democratic Party, when in reality, the Democratic Party sure has progressives and Democratic Socialists, but also just has a lot of centrists.

11:16You know, one of the things that Democrats, I think, are really trying to grapple with is the growing strength of these Democratic Socialists or just far left Bernie type candidates. Is that fundamentally about ideology? I mean, what I call the core four of all these candidates are Medicare for all, abolish ICE, a wealth tax, not just higher rates, but a tax on assets, and then cutting off military aid to Israel and in many cases actual arms embargo. So like, is it that voters are demanding those kind of far left or vanguard left progressive positions? Or is it that Democratic Socialist candidates seem more committed to fighting, you know, at this moment?

11:56I think the evidence is less that there is this hunger for kind of a revolution in policy than it is that these guys seem to be the ones who are fighting Trump and are more committed to the idea that Democrats have to do things differently.

12:16After the break, Nancy Cook, Ron Brownstein, and I talk about the way Democratic primaries are shaping Republicans' approach to the midterms.

12:36Ron and Nancy, we've been focusing on Michigan. And if you were to pull back and kind of look at the constellation of other Democratic primaries that have taken place or are taking place. Are there any others that stand out to you as being maybe similar to what we're seeing in Michigan or different? Are there ones you're watching perhaps as closely as you're watching Michigan? I'm very interested in what happens in Maine, which is, you know, it's on a primary, but it's, you know, Maine just picked its Democratic candidate, Troy Jackson, after Graham Plattner dropped out. I'm just super interested in what happens in that state, A, because control of the Senate it runs through Maine for the Democratic Party, at least.

13:14And then also, it's another moment for the strength of incumbency. So Senator Susan Collins is running for re-election. She's been in the Senate for a long time. You know, she's trying to prevail in a state that Trump lost. Kamala Harris did win Maine. And so I think that that is going to be a really interesting test case of how tired are voters of just like Washington as usual? And are they willing to throw her out, even though she's been making the argument a lot lately that she is the head of the Appropriations Committee. She brings a lot of money back to the state. Like, are voters just so tired of Washington insiders that they're going to throw, you know, everybody out?

13:50One reason Michigan is so important is because the left is going to have a good week next week. All signs are pointing toward Francesca Hong, who is a self-declared socialist in Wisconsin. I mean, there's a poll out from Marquette University with her pulling away from the field, despite the governor endorsing someone else. And then at the same time, same day, I believe same day, right? Minnesota is also August 11. And the left candidate there, the Lieutenant Governor, Peggy Flanagan, is another kind of Bernie Warren candidate, seems to have established a lead over the centrist, Angie Craig. Regardless of how these last ones sort out, I think you're going to have something of a collective freak out among centrist Democrats by the end of this primary.

14:31What we're watching now with this kind of infrastructure and kind of the Bernie group, our revolution, the Elizabeth Warren group, Justice Democrats, like the AOC-ish. Like there's never been anything quite like this. Well, just to jump in for a second, you say the Democrats haven't been through this, and I agree with that, but the Republicans have. And, you know, when I talk to like my Trump sources and, you know, people in that orbit, they feel like what is happening to the Democratic Party is what happened to their party, the Republican Party, with the Tea Party, where, you know, suddenly this insurgent group of, people around 2010 when President Obama was in office, you know, got really tired and really took over the country club establishment Republican Party.

15:15And it's like sort of history repeating itself, but just on the Democratic side. I mean, I had dinner with like some Trump people a few weeks ago and they were like, oh, we feel bad for the Dems. You know, we went through that 16 years ago. What's unique for the Democrats and even compared to the Tea Party, I mean, the Tea Party was more of a kind of a diffused, you know, thing. This is like actual structures, you know, that go out, recruit candidates, train them, fund them, support them with endorsements and appearances and basically get their buy-in, as I said, to kind of a, you know, a litmus test of issues.

15:49You can raise the question of whether Democrats are really advantaged by all of this money going into internal fighting. But I would bet in 28, the center is going to try to respond more significantly than we've seen this year to what the left is doing. And Republicans would like to run against the progressives. Like the more the further left the candidate is in the House or the Senate, the more excited the Republicans are. And so if El Saeed wins the Michigan Senate primary on Tuesday, you know, Mike Rogers, who is going to be the Republican candidate, you know, he would be thrilled to run against him.

16:21And so it's also just an interesting moment for Republicans also trying to hold their fire and wait to see who the pick is. Let me pick up on that a little bit here. So they may be eager to run against a kind of left-leaning Democrat in the general election. I'm curious if, you know, there's been another impact of this, that maybe the Republican Party, Republicans have felt like they have, like they're under pressure to go with their own populist candidates. Do you feel like the way that this is resonating among Democrats may lead Republicans and President Trump in particular to recognize the fact that perhaps that the game here is to lean more into economic issues?

16:56I mean, I feel like Republican candidates recognize that and they're going to be talking about that. But Trump is on his own program in Washington and his own program is squarely about him and his legacy and what he views as important. And part of that is the Iran war. But he, I don't think, is going to change what he does based on the fate of other Republicans. I don't think that's the headspace that he's in based on my reporting. Let me return to some of the races in which left-leaning candidates have not done well. And Nancy, when you look at where Democratic socialists have failed to make gains, how should the Democratic Party think about those outcomes?

17:36What does it say about voters broadly from the way those races have turned out? One lesson that progressives are taking where they haven't come out on top is that people do want to put forward a candidate who can beat a Republican and they don't want to put forward someone who is going to be talking about the Green New Deal and then like can't win in November or whatever the policy issue is. And so I think voters are more attuned to that because I think they are still so mad about the 2024 election. They're kind of shocked that Trump is back in power. Like, how did that happen? How did these people screw this up?

18:07Like, you know, Democrats are so mad. They feel like we knew all the things that he was going to do or we knew some hint of them. Why did the party let him do that? And I still think that there's so much anger about sort of letting Joe Biden run and what happened with Kamala Harris. And, you know, I talked to donors who were so mad about all the money they gave and they felt like it went towards nothing. And so I think they want someone who will fight for them and fight Trump, but also who can win. The core issue of 26 has clarified by now. And to me, it's like, it's pretty simple. Can Republicans win vastly more voters who disapprove of Trump than they did during his first term?

18:45And the only reason Republicans are not freaking out now is because polls show Democrats struggling to crack much past 80 % of people who disapprove of Trump. You know, if you're a Democratic strategist in Maine or Michigan, your job is not as a candidate, you don't have to convince the majority of the state that Trump is taking the country in the wrong direction. Sixty percent of the people believe that. Your job is just to reassure enough of them that it's OK to vote for the Democrat. And so, like, you know, the left is basically treating this as, well, the environment is so good, we can take big swings.

19:21We can take chances. Whereas the center is like, you know, just don't do anything too unusual and you're going to win a lot of these races by historic metrics. Right. The center is like, don't be weird. You know, just be cool. Don't be weird. Don't be weird. Just like seem normal. Like don't even talk that much and just like voters get mad about Trump. Like that's all you have to do. Nancy Cook, Ron Brownstein, thank you both very much. Thanks. Good to be with you guys. Good to be with you, Nancy. Ron was my first boss in Washington, and now I'm on the pod with him. I'm honored. Now we're pod people.

19:55We're pod people. There you go. I love it. This is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura. The show is hosted by me, Sarah Holder, and Juan Ha. The show is made by Aaron Edwards, David Fox, Jeff Grocott, Patty Hirsch, Rachel Lewis-Kriske, Laura Newcomb, Naomi Ng, Julia Press, Tracy Samuelson, Naomi Chauvin, Alex Segura, Julia Weaver, Yang Yang, and Taka Yasuzawa. Our executive producer is Nicole Beamster-Boer. To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access to all of Bloomberg.com, subscribe today at Bloomberg.com slash podcast offer. Thanks for listening. We'll be back on Monday.

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