The Races That Will Shape the Midterms

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1:27Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. Primary season in the U.S. is underway, with five months of intense campaigning to go till the midterms. Maine is pretty much a must win for Democrats if they're going to have any chance at all of taking the Senate. Tomorrow, Maine voters will cast their ballots in the Democratic Senate primary, where Graham Plattner, the leading Democratic candidate to take on incumbent Republican Susan Collins, is facing new controversies. The New York Times reporting several ex-girlfriends describe unsettling behavior. One alleging Plattner grabbed her hard enough to leave marks and during one argument twisted her arm behind her back and blocked her in a room.

2:10Plattner fiercely denies any violence. Midterms tend to be tough for the incumbent party, and this year has come as Trump's approval ratings continue to slide. Polling data compiled by RealClearPolitik show the president's overall rating is hovering around 40 percent. On average, just 34 percent of Americans approve of how he's handling the economy. I think the big themes on the Republican side are just Trump's grip on the Republican Party and how long that lasts. Bloomberg political correspondent Nancy Cook. On the Democratic side, I think that they are really looking for leaders and looking for ideas that are going to bring them back to power.

2:48And there's a lot of competing factions. Nancy says Democrats and Republicans are fighting for control of the House and the Senate and so much more. Trump is not going to be able to confirm people to lead agencies if he fires them or confirm judges if Democrats control the Senate. He's not going to be able to pass legislation through Congress if Democrats take back the Senate. And Democrats, meanwhile, want to take back the Senate and the House because they want to have checks on Trump. As all eyes are on these national races, state and local elections are also painting a clearer picture of U.S.

3:25political sentiment and strategy. Votes are still being tallied in the primary for California governor. It's one of the top jobs in Democratic politics. It is a state where you get to, you know, lead a lot of the liberal Democratic opposition to Trump. Eliyahu Kamisher has been following elections in California for Bloomberg. You have a massive economy. If it was its own country, it would be around the fourth biggest GDP in the world. And you get to also set the agenda for Democrats. Nancy and Eliyahu say it's all building to a bigger question. Who will run? and who could win in 2028. There's a real fight for ideas and leadership in the Democratic Party, and who wins in November will give us some really key clues as to what type of Democrat is best positioned to become the Democratic nominee in 2028.

4:25This is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. Today on the show, as U.S. midterm election season begins to ramp up. My co-host David Gura and I sit down with Bloomberg's Nancy Cook and Eliyahu Kamisher to understand what's at stake and which messages will land with voters.

4:46Nancy, let me start with you. You are a political correspondent for Bloomberg, and I imagine that these days the midterms are taking up a lot of your psychic space. We're talking right before a few closely watched races this week in Maine and South Carolina, And I want to start with Maine. There's a primary to determine who's going to challenge Republican Senator Susan Collins. And Graham Plattner has been the frontrunner. Now he is dealing with some personal controversies that could derail the success he's had. In broad strokes, first of all, who is he and how did he become the frontrunner in Maine?

5:16So Graham Plattner is a very interesting figure. You know, Chuck Schumer, the minority leader in the Senate, had wanted Janet Mills, who is the sitting governor, who has been a really successful critic of Trump, has governing experience. He had really wanted her to be the Democratic nominee for Senate, but she's 76. And there is obviously in the post-Joe Biden era, a lot of sensitivity about putting up someone in their mid to late 70s for a six year Senate term. And a lot of people in Maine also passed on getting into the race. They didn't want to run for Senate against Susan Collins, who is a longtime Republican incumbent.

5:54And so while everybody in Maine was dithering around, Graham Plattner, who is a veteran and an oysterman threw his name into the ring and ended up getting a lot of energy just from actual voters. And Bernie Sanders endorsed him and Elizabeth Warren endorsed him based on sort of the connection that he had with voters and also these messages of economic populism that he was espousing. Because I can't wait to wade into that fight alongside Graham Plattner. And I think that people in democratic politics came to view him as kind of one of these new outsider candidates that they're looking for. But there has been this steady drip of problematic stories about him.

6:36He has a Nazi-ling tattoo on his chest, which he ended up covering up. He has said different stories about whether or not he knew it was affiliated with the Nazis. The New York Times came out with a big story about how he treated some of his ex-girlfriends. allegations, you know, sort of allegations of physical abuse, which he has said are not true. And Janet Mills has said, you know, she's not going to she wasn't going to run anymore, but her name is still on the ballot. And so it's this really interesting dynamic in Maine, where now Democrats are stuck with this candidate who is kind of imperfect, who has all these headlines running against Susan Collins, who, you know, Republicans don't totally love, but still want her to control the Senate.

7:17And Maine is really important to the Senate race, because it was one of the seats that Democrats viewed as most promising to flip and potentially take over from Republicans. And now that just really seems in doubt. And Nancy, Graham Plattner seems to represent a sort of shift in the typical candidate that Democrats have been running, right? What do you think his brand of politics signals about the Democrats' broader strategy heading into these midterms? And what happens if he wins and what happens if he loses? I've been to Kentucky in the last month. I've been to Texas. I've been talking to a lot of voters.

7:51And I think that people are very mad. You know, they're very mad at both parties. And so that is what gives an opening to candidates like Graham Plattner. And I think that there is this tendency for voters to kind of look for the non-politician now. And that is very alluring. And you have to remember a decade ago, we saw that with Donald Trump. And so I think what Graham Plattner shows us is like, how much appetite is there really for an outsider? Are you comfortable with the fact that there might be a lot of skeletons in their closet. You might not know exactly what you're getting. How much do you want that?

8:23And I think the uniqueness of Maine is a huge part of this. I've got family in Maine, and it's been interesting to see sort of how they have processed what's come out, what they've said about their friends who have kind of noticed who have maybe supported Plattner and seen all of this come out. And there is kind of an iconoclastic mold to a lot of Mainers, I think. Sarah, you've got family in California. I know that you've been following the races there very closely because of Yeah, Eliyahu, I really wanted to talk about this because in my household, we've been refreshing and refreshing the results from the gubernatorial and L.A.

8:52mayoral primaries. California has pretty reliably produced national candidates. They've tested national strategies there, at least as far as the Democratic Party goes. So as you look at some of the key California races, what is at stake both locally and nationally? I think the big race is the governor's primary. And it's been really the first truly wide open gubernatorial primary in decades. So now it's come down to Javier Becerra, Joe Biden's former health secretary, and Steve Hilton, the former Fox News commentator. He was also in the British government under David Cameron, a proponent of Brexit.

9:36And then also it's still too early to call the former hedge fund founder Tom Steyer, who became a billionaire and then left his hedge fund to pursue climate activism. He's trailing in third. What does this matchup say to you and what's driving these two very different candidates appeal in the state? Yeah, it's a good question. I think with Becerra, what it really says is actually the staying power of a candidate who has a long political track record and has risen through the ranks of democratic politics. He started in Congress in the 1990s. He is a fixture in the state. You know, early in this race, he was polling at four or five percent.

10:20He was at the bottom of the pack. And even the state Democratic Party, people were kind of telling Javier, hey, I think you probably need to drop out because there was actually some worries early on that two Republicans could make it to the top because it's a it's a top two primary format. Which would be pretty unheard of for California. That would have been unheard of. The state party was essentially they were shaming people like Javier and some of the lower polling candidates saying like they were releasing these public polls saying you guys kind of need to drop out. He didn't drop out. And then we had this huge kind of October surprise that didn't happen in October.

10:57But Eric Swalwell faced some really serious sexual assault and sexual misconduct allegations. And his campaign imploded and he resigned from Congress. He dropped out of the race. and there was kind of this remarkable almost overnight surge for Javier. He also has a record as a California AG of suing Trump like 120 times. And, you know, that holds a lot of sway amongst California Democratic voters, whether you're going to be able to oppose Trump. So, you know, almost overnight, he saw a huge surge in the poll. He went to the front-runner status and he's held that through, you know, through the primary.

11:37You've walked through the personal dynamics. I'm curious sort of from a policy perspective, what issues were on the ballot for California voters? And I think there's this tendency, rightly or wrongly, to look at a primary in a state like California and try to divine some indication of what the broader electorate is looking for here in the midterms. Should we do that in this case? Are the issues animating the California electorate the same as the ones you think that are animating voters around the country? I think so. I mean, the affordability is the big one in California right now. And you do see this kind of division, Tom Steyer ran on this populist message of saying, we're going to tax corporations, we're going to tax billionaires, and we're going to, you know, use that revenue to make things more affordable.

12:18We're also going to go like directly at the pocketbooks of utilities in the state, which have kind of a state mandated monopoly. He spent over$215 million of his own money pushing this message out into California. And that bought him a role in this election. But it didn't totally resonate with people. And I think because if you're selling a populist message, people have to believe the person who is selling that message. And at the end of the day, Tom Steyer is a billionaire. And a lot of people I talked to said, you know, like that's kind of a non-starter for them. After the break, how Trump's endorsements are influencing the midterms and whether AI could be the next political battle line.

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14:31Presidential endorsements can make a big impact on local races. They can elevate a candidate's name recognition, put them on the national map. But with President Trump's approval rating declining, we wanted to ask Nancy and Eliyahu what kind of influence he has on the midterms this time around. I think Trump still has a huge amount of sway over how Republican politics is going to play out, both in the midterms and in, you know, 2028. I was in Kentucky and there was a Republican primary with Thomas Massey and Ed Galrin, who is the Trump endorsed candidate who no one had ever heard of. And he was a Navy SEAL, but he'd never held office before.

15:12And basically his whole message to voters was like, Trump endorsed me. And that was like, that was it. He refused to outline policy positions. He wasn't doing media interviews. But it was like Trump endorsed me. Massey, the latest Republican lawmaker to lose after being declared disloyal by the president. And so I still think that Trump holds a ton of sway in a bunch of different states and is so powerful enough that just like him endorsing someone or tweeting about someone really makes a difference. Trevor Burrus Nancy, you talked about the power of the Trump endorsement and he quite proudly has trumpeted that after the primaries that we've seen thus far.

15:46We did see a crack in that wall or in his ability to do that in Iowa in the scuba tutorial primaries. Zach Lon defeated President Trump's pick. That's Randy Feenster, the congressman. What does that tell you? Is that an anomaly in light of all of the successes that Donald Trump has had thus far? Or is it a sign to you that power may not be as strong as the president's presenting and as we've kind of accepted here over the first primaries we've seen? I think that his power is still strong, but I think that we're seeing cracks and we're seeing that in polling. We're seeing that as I talk to voters.

16:18We're seeing that in Iowa. And I feel like Iowa is a good example of a place where people are mad about a lot of Trump policies. You know, Iowa, when I was there in 2024, for the Republican caucuses, like it's, you know, was really a Trump country at that point. However, people are very mad there about the tariffs. You know, they're really mad about the war in Iran, it has raised fuel prices, prices for fertilizer. You know, a lot of farmers are mad about the policies that they've done with tariffs on beef. I mean, there's just like a lot of economic policies that are hurting people in Iowa, voters there, Republicans, and they're not happy about it.

16:59And I think that that's why we saw the Trump-backed candidate not win, because Iowa voters are looking at their own pocketbooks and thinking like, this agenda is not working for me, even though I voted for this guy. I mean, that is a pattern we've seen in past midterms, right, Nancy? In general, incumbent parties tend to lose ground. And we're obviously seeing polling indicate that The president has made a lot of choices that are unpopular with voters. What are we seeing this year in terms of the breakdown between where Democrats are potentially picking up votes and where Republicans are holding strong?

17:32The Republican base is still pretty with Trump on things like, you know, the economy and immigration or, you know, they're still willing to give him some grace. But I think that where Democrats see, you know, there was a whole crew of people who really swayed towards Republicans in 2024 for the presidential race. And this was, you know, swing voters, independents, black men, young men, Hispanics. And that whole crew is kind of up for grabs in the midterms. And that coalition that Trump assembled has really been framed. They're not locked in with the Republican Party. They are not Republicans. And so I think the Democrats are trying to win those people over.

18:12Democrats are also really trying to win over working class people again, white working class people. Trump was really the first Republican to come in and take that those voters away from Democrats a decade ago. And so I think Democrats are trying to win back those people. Is there anything else that we should be factoring in as we look forward to these primaries this week and in the weeks ahead and make our way to the midterms? Nancy, I'll start with you. There are new things coming up in elections. And so how AI plays out in the election, both in terms of what it looks like in ads, what it looks like in disinformation online to try to convince voters.

18:50And then AI companies are pouring a huge amount of money into different races. And so that is kind of a new dark money group that you can't discount because that is a new industry that wants some say in the regulations. and I think that that is going to play a huge role in the midterm, sort of where that money flows, and an even bigger role in 2028. I was actually going to echo that, the impact of tech and AI, and I think what we saw was actually that tech is becoming a bit of a boogeyman. There was one candidate, his name was Matt Mahan, he's the mayor of San Jose, it's like the largest city in Silicon Valley.

19:30his candidacy was like backed by a huge amount of of silicon valley figures some big names like sergey brin also reed hastings ceo of netflix a lot of venture capitalists came in for him and they liked his moderate democrat uh a little more fiscally conservative anti-establishment but he didn't come in saying i'm gonna take on tech um and that money ended up kind of being an albatross for him. He was labeled as a tech bro. And he failed to kind of break out of that. And I think a lot of people saw that and said, hey, if you're backed by all these, you know, singular billionaires, and you say you're going to turn around and regulate them, that's a hard thing to sell.

20:17And then, you know, nearby, there was a Ro Khanna faced a primary from a Democrat, Ethan Agarwal. And that was spurred by Ro Khanna backing a proposed billionaire tax in California. After he came out with that, you saw a huge amount of kind of anger on social media from some of these tech elite. And they said, Ro Khanna's, you know, done with and we're going to back a primary against him. They backed this guy named Ethan and he has done, you know, dismally and Ro Khanna seems stronger than ever. So I think that was kind of another reflection of like Silicon Valley frustration with Democrats and the kind of skewing towards Republicans that we're seeing on the national level.

21:04That is definitely not playing well in California at the moment. This kind of AI nexus with billionaires, with Trump, I think that's going to be kind of an emerging issue that's going to be playing out in more elections to come.

21:25This is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access to all of Bloomberg.com, subscribe today at Bloomberg.com slash podcast offer. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.

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