Weekend Listen: Is the world prepared for a 'super' El Niño?

18:21Mingfang Ting:Absolutely. I mean, we are definitely seeing the temperatures continue to rise. So on top of that, if we have another super onion, you know, like this upcoming one, then that adds to additional heat into the atmosphere. So that kind of, you know, higher global mean surface temperature, obviously the global mean when we say, you know, the 0.5, 0.2, 0.5 degrees Celsius is in the global mean. It's regionally can be much higher. So they're not evenly distributed. So some regions may be up to one degree, two degrees. So that is a substantial amount being added. So we can definitely expect to see a lot more of concurrent heat when that happens, which means basically you are seeing heat wave happening across different regions at the same time.

19:12Akshat Rathi:And let's just talk through some of the impacts. We've mentioned in the 1877 El Niño, the strongest ever, there were famines. But the thing that El Niño does is increases droughts in certain regions, but also increases flooding in other regions. It just changes rainfall patterns in multiple places. And both can have impact on agricultural yields. But as we've also become much more urban in the last two centuries, it can have massive impacts on cities and people. The 23, 24 El Nino, for example, had catastrophic floods in Kenya. And then there are other impacts from El Ninos that can come through.

19:54Akshat Rathi:So the 2015-2016 El Nino is known for having caused a lot of coral bleaching, especially in the Great Barrier Reef in Australia. What other impacts should people be aware of?

20:07Mingfang Ting:Impact like wildfires is very severe. As we know, global warming already are causing drier conditions in many regions, like California, for example, southwestern U.S. And so that already increased wildfire risk. So in this case, El Nino is very well known to be linked to increased wildfire risk in regions like Indonesia, northern Australia, eastern Australia, where the suppressed rainfall happens. You know, when the rainfall shifts toward the central Pacific, the warm water moves toward the east, the rainfall also moves with it. So that is causing a lot of the drying conditions there, and wildfire is one of them.

20:57Mingfang Ting:As you pointed out, flooding is another common risk associated with El Nino. In regions like California, south-southern U.S., and some part of Peruvian coast regions, there can be really severe flooding that can lead to landslides, for example. hazards like that.

21:23Akshat Rathi:One way in which one of the scientists explained to me the super part of the El Nino was to think about the things that put heat into the ocean, which then eventually comes out. So one is because of human-caused climate change, we are heating up the planet, some of that heat is being transferred into the ocean. The other is the La Nina phase, which is a phase where there is more than normal heat that is absorbed by the oceans, and then it gets stored in the Pacific. And typically, an El Nino follows a La Nina. And so you get sort of a battery that is being charged, then that gets released in the El Nino.

22:05Akshat Rathi:And then there are other factors that we are still to understand. And of course, this is a very complex phenomenon. So all the factors are not yet understood. But is there any other factor that we should be thinking about on how much more heat is released in an El Nino?

22:23Mingfang Ting:I think you have covered most of it. Your understanding is so complete. I can't think of any additional factor that we haven't talked about. I think, you know, yes, ultimately, we are still trying to understand better. One of the things you mentioned is La Nina before El Nino, which is a phase that heat is being put into the ocean, storage phase. So there were studies indicating the longer the La Nina, La Nina seem, you know, tend to be lasting longer. Not this time. This time, you know, after the 23, 24 El Nino, we entered the La Nina phase and pretty much just ended right before this El Nino.

23:11Mingfang Ting:So it wasn't a super long La Nina heat storage phase. So there are studies indicating longer La Nina phase could lead to stronger El Nino. But I don't think that is being widely accepted as a valid mechanism because we don't see that in data. So that could be one, you know, is how La Nina behaves right before El Nino. that could determine the intensity of the following El Nino. But ultimately, I think we still have a lot to understand.

23:48Akshat Rathi:And then one of the scientists I was listening to said, no two El Ninos are the same. What does that mean?

23:56Mingfang Ting:Right. So first of all, yes, exactly. It means none of the, no two, and you can try to find the exact replica of the El Ninos. They always differ in some ways. But I think what it means more is that even if you have identical El Nino, the impact will never be exactly the same. I think that is more of what we usually mean in the sense that El Nino is putting, again, the weight to the dice. So it's not the only factor. Rainfall patterns here and there, droughts, all of that, that can be impacted by multiple factors in the climate system. El Nino is just adding a weight to one direction. So depending on how the weather pattern itself evolves under a certain El Nino condition, you can get very different impact in different regions.

25:03Akshat Rathi:After the break, I asked Professor Ming Fang Ting how climate scientists are responding in the face of increased political attacks. If you've learned something new from Xero, please do give us a rating on your favorite podcast app. It helps new listeners find the show.

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26:27Akshat Rathi:SEC Registered Advisor. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures.

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28:13Akshat Rathi:Now, this is all happening at a time where, at least in the US, there are attacks from governments, from political actors on climate science itself. Now, climate science is not new to political attacks. These have happened over the past three decades in many different ways. and the climate scientists community, including yourself, have worked to try and figure out what is the best way to showcase the work that you're doing, why it helps people, what are the facts and how it allows us to prepare for a better world. But particularly in this period, you know, there are direct impacts that can come through on people's lived experiences.

28:58Akshat Rathi:So there was a recent proposal from the Trump administration to dismantle the ocean monitoring system that you talked about, which can help us predict an El Nino. Of course, Congress has stopped that from happening. And so the ocean monitoring system will continue to support El Nino work for much longer. But as a climate scientist, how have you been affected?

29:24Mingfang Ting:We are all affected in different ways. One of the biggest impact is the funding itself. So, you know, all our works depend on funding, you know, our graduate students, our postdocs, you know, and other facilities that we need to do the work. Myself, I'm not an observational climate scientist in the sense that I don't go out and collect data. But as you pointed out, that is a super important part of our research because we rely on data. And my work is mostly relying on model. So that needs supercomputer infrastructure like that to help us continue our research. So one of the things I wanted to bring up is, you know, climate science itself, it's a physical science.

30:14Mingfang Ting:It's not really political. But I think we can communicate better in the sense, you know, it is a kind of like, you know, you're thinking about a throw of dice. you're really saying you're putting weight on certain higher numbers. Climate change is basically doing that. You're not equal chance of getting all the numbers, but rather now you're getting extremes more likely.

30:39Akshat Rathi:Yeah. And thinking about life in probability terms is very difficult for people in general, even for people who understand probability and who are working on statistical methods. And so that becomes a difficult issue to communicate. But one field that is emerging that is trying to make this communication simpler to say not all extreme weather is caused by climate change, but some we can clearly show the link to climate change. And that science is extreme weather attribution science. Can you just walk us through what extreme weather attribution work looks like? Yes.

31:20Mingfang Ting:This is a very mature science now. We're basically using models to help us understand what is likely this event happened. Let's say European heat wave. Currently, we're all talking about it. So how likely this event would happen in a world without fossil fuel versus with fossil fuel? We run model runs with those two conditions and then get a probability of this kind of event happening. And I don't know if you've read the news report, the World Weather Attribution Group has already done that. And they're always, you know, really fast in producing that. And the conclusion there is that it's very unlikely this event would happen without fossil fuel contribution into the climate warming.

32:20Akshat Rathi:Yeah, we are recording this episode during the heatwave in Europe in June. And the study says that this is the worst recorded heatwave in Europe and that it would be virtually impossible without human-caused climate change having run this model. And one of the scientists who was involved in the study put it very plainly. It's Frederica Otto. She's a professor at Imperial College London. And she said, yes, this is climate change. Yes, it is us causing this climate change. No, it's not El Nino that is making this extreme heat wave worse. And then she adds, we have the solutions and we are not implementing them fast enough.

33:06Akshat Rathi:And that clear communication is, of course, coming from a base of, as you said, a mature science. But there's already a layer of politics getting involved. Now, the U.S. National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine are conducting a study to look at attribution science. They did so a decade ago, and now methods have improved and become more precise. And so they are doing another study to look at effectiveness of these methods. And there is an effort from political actors, some in the government, some in think tanks, who want to weaken attribution science's value because they worry that it will be used in courts to try and hold powerful actors like governments or corporations to account.

33:58Akshat Rathi:What can scientists do to ensure that attribution science doesn't come under these kinds of political attack?

34:06Mingfang Ting:Again, you know, attribution science itself is a science. So, you know, I'm not familiar with this new attribution study conducting on the National Academy of Science. But even if they redo it, they'll be using the best model available. And I can't imagine scientists would claim otherwise. The results are going to be what it is. But it is probabilistic. So even though it is virtually impossible, it doesn't mean it's completely impossible. This could happen without climate change. So, you know, communication like, you know, adding some kind of emphasis, you know, compared to 1970s. I think in their study, they already done that compared to 1970s condition where fossil fuels already, you know, been burning for a while.

35:04Mingfang Ting:And it's about 200 times less likely in the 1970s condition. So I think put out more numbers like this could help. So this is not something we just sort of grab out of the same air. I believe in scientists' integrity. I think if people are truly believing they are exploring possibilities, the conclusions drawn by one group may not be accurate, I'm totally for it. I think the more the better.

35:42Akshat Rathi:Yeah, and 200 times more likely or less likely is a huge number, right? If suddenly someone were to tell me, if you cross the road today, there's a 200 times more likelihood that you'll get hit by a car, I would be scared. I would take care about crossing the road. I would make sure that the traffic light is red and not cross over without that. Same thing with, you know, taking a plane or a car. If you are going to die, then the probability increases by 200 times. Yes. You'd be very careful. And so people must heed what the statistics are telling us.

36:20Mingfang Ting:Yes. I think another example we can talk about is smoking. You know, a lot of people believe smoking increases the chance of getting lung cancer. And I hope a lot of young people learn that and not stop smoking because they know the probability shift, right? The odds change. So absolutely, I agree with you. The 200 times is a huge number. And we definitely should heed to that, change our behavior in some ways.

36:53Akshat Rathi:Thank you, Mingfang.

36:54Mingfang Ting:You're welcome.

37:01Akshat Rathi:And thank you for listening to Zero. Now for the sound of the week.

37:17Akshat Rathi:That is the sound of lava flowing from the most recent eruption of Mount Etna, which happened on the 26th of June on the Italian island of Sicily. If you like this episode, please take a moment to rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts, YouTube and Spotify. This episode was produced by Somersadi and Oscar Boyd. Our theme music is composed by Wonderly. Special thanks to Blake Maples, Laura Milan and Alyssa MacDonald. I am Akshat Rati, back soon.

37:55Thank you.

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