What Could Happen Next in the Russia-Ukraine Peace Process

0:00This episode sponsored by Minky Couture. Fair warning, bring a Minky Couture blanket home and it may instantly become the most wanted seat in the house. That's the magic of Minky Couture. Minky Couture created the original soft Minky blanket, trusted for premium quality and custom styles. One touch and movie nights, naps and cold mornings suddenly revolve around who got to it first. Shop now at MinkyCouture.com. That's Minky, M-I-N-K-Y, Couture. C-O-U-T-U-R-E dot com. Go to MinkyCouture.com and get your Minky Couture blanket now before everyone in your house claims it is theirs. This is Chelsea Handler from Dear Chelsea.

0:40Every week, the news gets worse, the world gets crazier, and Yamanika is here to tell whoever's responsible, you're the problem. Do you know I just found out who Sidney Sweeney was? If he got a bunch of women, then I should have a bunch of men. Do better or do less so I don't have to do so much. I'm Yamanika, and I'm out. Listen to You're the Problem with Yamanika on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Didn't catch the latest Roland Martin Unfiltered podcast? Here's what you missed. People wake up and go, oh damn, wait a minute, hold up. They changed all of that?

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1:41Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. After last week's summit in Alaska between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin, Ukrainian President Zelensky and more than half a dozen European leaders traveled to Washington. Hello, everybody. Getting a group of European leaders to convene anywhere in August is sort of a tough task, much less in a few days. And I think it underscores the level of concern there was coming out of that Alaska meeting among Ukraine and Ukraine's allies in Europe over what President Trump's plans were. Bloomberg's Justin Sink says this group of presidents and prime ministers, NATO's secretary general and Germany's chancellor, wanted to make sure Ukraine and the rest of Europe are included in the peace process and that Trump understands what's at stake, not just for Ukraine, but for the whole continent.

2:37First, Zelensky met with Trump at the White House, and that meeting unfolded much better than another one they had a few months ago in the Oval Office. I think that we had very good conversation with President Trump. Very good. And it really was the best one. Next, Trump held a roundtable discussion with a group that included France's Emmanuel Macron, Italy's Giorgio Maloney, and the UK's Keir Starmer. And each of them emphasized the importance of security guarantees for Ukraine in any peace deal. We're talking about the security not just of Ukraine, we're talking about the security of Europe and the United Kingdom as well.

3:15There was a lot of discussion over the course of the day of next steps of President Zelensky and President Putin potentially meeting one-on-one, and if there being a trilateral meeting with Ukraine, Russia, and the United States. But according to Justin Sink, there is nothing on the schedule, and getting Zelensky and Putin together to talk is far from guaranteed. The way that the White House framed it, and the way that President Trump framed it, was that the meeting seemed like a sort of inevitable outcome. I don't think that that's true. When the Kremlin read out the same phone call between Trump and Putin following his meeting with Zelensky and the Europeans, they merely mentioned that there had been a discussion of the possibility of a meeting, didn't confirm that they were working to make it happen.

3:58So there's a real question of if this meeting even happens, though I think Europe and Ukraine have to be happy that they've at least hot potatoed this back into Putin's lap right now.

4:12I'm David Gurra, and this is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. Today on the show, after separate bilateral meetings with the U.S. and Russia and the U.S. and Ukraine, and a show of force from European leaders at the White House, what's next in the peace process? What would be on the table at a trilateral meeting? And what a peace deal would mean for Ukraine and Europe as a whole?

4:38Last week, President Trump literally rolled out the red carpet for President Putin in Alaska. It was the first time the Russian president had set foot on U.S. soil in a decade. Well, thousands of miles away, Ukraine's president and other European leaders were paying close attention. And Justin Sink, who oversees Bloomberg's coverage of the Trump White House, says that summit stirred them to action. So we went from, you know, Putin and Trump leaving Friday in Alaska to Monday afternoon, a basic mini G7 convention held at the White House. And that kind of underscores what they saw as a real moment of possible peril for Ukraine.

5:18But then out of that, we've now added this possibility of a first meeting between Zelensky and Putin and another meeting between Putin, Trump and Zelensky, with leaders saying that that could happen the next couple of weeks, potentially the entire thing wrapped up in three weeks. I think that's obviously the most optimistic version of how this could play out. But considering how long these talks have installed, that the war has been going on for more than three years, we have seen this real sort of rapid acceleration. Piotr Skolomowski, who oversees coverage of government and politics in Central Europe for Bloomberg, also kept a close watch on the meeting between Trump and Putin.

5:54And what happened next? The visuals from that summit were really scary for European leaders. And they're really concerning. I mean, the fact that he rolled out the red carpet and the fact that he basically didn't even push back and immediately after more or less adopted the talking points that Putin was having and raised concerns that, first of all, Zelensky going forward will be forced into territorial concessions, which is the big concern there. And, you know, that Putin is basically has Trump on his side. So for them, it was a serious matter just to go there and turn this narrative around. Justin, let's talk about what was a busy day at the White House yesterday.

6:37There was this one-on-one between President Trump and President Zelensky as well. And it wasn't difficult to draw a contrast to the previous meeting between those two leaders. Could you just describe the atmospherics of this one, how it was different than the last time they sat down together in the Oval Office? Sure. I mean, the difference was sort of immediately obvious from when Zelensky pulled up at the White House wearing a suit. And Trump immediately kind of slaps him on the shoulder and says, oh, you know, you wore a suit, which seems, of course, like an incredibly trivial thing. But for a president who so focuses on image, on style, on the sort of pageantry of the office, it was an immediate signal from Zelensky that he was setting a different tone for this meeting.

7:18And the reception from Trump signaled that as well. They moved quickly to the Oval Office. And you see there are different points in that meeting that could have gone south. There's a point where Zelensky says, is asked by a reporter, what do you need to agree to a peace deal? And he says everything. He wants security guarantees. He wants assistance from Europe, all of these different asks. And he's making that ask in front of a US president that has basically gone the campaign trail and through the first eight months of his presidency said time and time again, I think Ukraine has asked for too much.

7:51But Trump doesn't sort of take the bait and attack Zelensky. And then there was this one sort of amazing moment to get back to the suit where Trump points out a reporter who had been the one who asked Zelensky about the suit. I have a question for each of you. First of all, Mr. President Zelensky, you look fabulous in that suit. I said the same. Yeah, you look good. I said the same. And says, you know, this is the guy who gave you a hard time before. I remember that. I apologize to you. You look wonderful. And Zelensky quickly quips back and says, oh, yeah, you know, I changed my clothes. This guy's wearing the same suit.

8:26No, my first question for you, President Zelensky. In the same suit. Trump loved it. He was one of the first genuine laughs that I think you can point to from Trump in office, just cackling. And I think it showed that he was not only in a better mood, but understood the gravity of the situation and understood that if there was a repeat of what happened the last time around, Trump himself would face a lot of those same criticisms that dogged his first term about how he just rolled over time and time again. There was this other meeting that followed that one with these European leaders, and President Trump gave each of them an opportunity to speak.

9:06How unified was the message from these European leaders who came to the White House? I mean, it was unified in one sense that they've really tried to lay it on thick in terms of charming him and trying to say all these good words about how he broke the deadlock. I really want to thank you, President of the United States, dear Donald, for the fact that you, as I said before, broke the deadlock, basically, with President Putin by starting that dialogue. So that's been something that's definitely sort of a charm offensive was clearly in the process. What we saw when sort of the message started breaking up a little bit was the moment where Friedrich Schmetz, the new chancellor from Germany, he basically came back to this whole idea of, of course, the peace plan is important.

9:54This is something that came out of the meeting in Alaska. But we need to have ceasefire first. And I think he even got to the point where when we get the next meeting, we need to have a ceasefire by then. Clearly, Trump was slightly taken aback by that, but it didn't really ruin the atmosphere. It seems they tried to stay unmatched. Justin, where do things stand now? So there's this desire from President Trump to have a bilateral meeting, to have President Putin and President Zelensky sit down with one another and then have this trilateral meeting, I guess would be another summit involving President Trump as well.

10:27What's the expectation? How widely shared is that expectation of where things go from here? European leaders said that they expected that it could be set within hours or hours later, and it hasn't happened yet. And this is something that's actually happened a couple times throughout this process. There's been an international push to put Putin and Zelensky in a room. Putin has said, I'm interested in talking, but only after sort of get to the end of a peace deal on favorable terms that Russia wants. We heard Zelensky even after the meeting say, I think it's really important that there not be conditions on this meeting, anticipating that the Kremlin and that Putin might try to scuttle the talks by putting stuff forward.

11:07But what I'd say is, despite all the optimism and sort of excitement out of the summit in Washington and how it seemed like the U.S. and Europe were largely unified or at least on the same page again, there's this real question of if you're Russia, do you have this meeting? And when you think long term, Russia's objective number one may be to get a sweeping deal that ends the conflict on their terms. But short of that, to get the U.S. to get fed up and tired with this process and to get Trump fed up and tired with this process to the point that he walks away, he withdraws support. And then Russia can kind of use its larger size, greater resources to push through and to get the gains that they wanted in the first place.

11:53So you have to kind of consider whether this was a success or where this is going, both in the context of the immediate term of will there be another meeting? Will there be progress towards peace? But also that longer question of is this a way of just delaying and delaying and delaying for Putin to get to his eventual gains anyway? One of the biggest sticking points for President Putin and President Zelensky has been so-called security guarantees. Another one is land swaps. After the break, we'll get into what each leader wants from negotiations, if they happen.

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13:33Go to MinkyCouture.com and get your Minky Couture blanket now, before everyone in your house claims it is theirs. This is Chelsea Handler from Dear Chelsea. Every week, the news gets worse, the world gets crazier, and Yamanika is here to tell whoever's responsible, you're the problem. If you come over here to play games, I'ma check you. Okay? If you do some s*** in the news that don't sound good, I'ma play you. Join Yamanika Saunders as she breaks down the week's most problematic stories on her new podcast, You're the Problem with Yamanika. Do you know I just found out who Sidney Sweeney was? New episodes weekly every Wednesday as part of my new network, the Dear Chelsea Network.

14:14If he got a bunch of women, then I should have a bunch of men. Do better or do less so I don't have to do so much. So join Yamanika each episode as she answers one question. Who's the problem? I'm Yamanika and I'm out. Listen to You're the Problem with Yamanika on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

14:43on tuesday morning president trump told fox news that while he could see the u.s playing a role in guaranteeing ukraine's security it would not involve u.s troops what kind of assurances do you feel like uh you have that uh going forward uh and you know past this trump administration It won't be American boots on the ground defending that border. Well, you have my assurance, you know, I'm president and I'm just trying to stop people from being killed. That was a big indicator of what would be a key sticking point in negotiations. Ukraine and its European allies are seeking to involve the U.S. in providing security guarantees for Ukraine, which would deter Russia from violating a ceasefire agreement.

15:29Bloomberg's Pyotr Skolomovsky says that while we don't have many specifics, there are a few ways this could shake out. And the first option involves sending weapons to Ukraine. So that's basically their best bet, just to arm them to the teeth and hope for the best, more or less. But, you know, the next step is much more harder for them. It's the concept that's been discussed for at least a year now. It started with Macron, who raised this issue of putting boots on the ground there. If you think about the Europeans, obviously we have the coalition of the willing and the group of countries. And most of the leaders who joined Trump yesterday are part of that group.

16:05And they are discussing a potentially sending troops at some point. If you look across the EU, a lot of countries are against that. Take Poland. They've said already they're not going to send troops, even though they're ready to support. So a lot of countries are willing to support. They're willing to send more weapons. But when it comes to troops, that's basically a step too far. Zelensky said yesterday that one of the potential security guarantees is actually membership of Ukraine in the EU. But then again here, you know, with the EU, you need consensus. And there is no consensus on that. And one example is Viktor Orban, Hungary's prime minister, who's dead against that idea.

16:44And joining the EU is, in normal circumstances, a very long process. In this case, it can be even longer. So that leaves us with sort of the third option, which basically means how much U.S. is going to be committed into that process. And at the end of the day, it's very hard to imagine that if we get to the situation where there's a trilateral meeting or a bilateral meeting, there is some kind of form where West secures or guarantees security for Russia. We've heard from Putin so many times that he talks about the root causes of this war, root causes being NATO being very close to Russia, NATO as he sees it being a threat to Russia.

17:24And any form of security guarantees, any form of troops or boots on the ground from Western countries in Ukraine will just be seen by Putin as another example of West just trying to get into what he considers his sphere of influence. We have seen for more than a decade now, Russia trying quite doggedly to gain control of this eastern part of Ukraine. Can you just explain for someone who's been watching this with some remove why that territory has been, continues to be so important for Russia? There are a number of reasons. First of all, obviously, it's part of the country that's at least to some extent Russian speaking.

18:03So that's where they see where they can have influence. And they've been trying to control that country even before the full-scale invasion. We have to go back to 2014. But there are other factors. And one of them is, obviously, it's the place where there is or there has been, at least, the industry until it was completely destroyed during this war. And it's the industrial heartland of Ukraine. And what we have to remember strategically, that territory is very key for them. And Zelensky said that, that if he gives up Donbass, this will just be a springboard for Putin to start again. And I think that's the biggest concern for him, that if they give it up from strategic point of view, from tactical point of view, he will just come back again in a couple of years.

18:49And now his road towards reaching Kiev and actually capturing will be much easier. Justin, what would happen if this process were to fall apart? Well, it's always hard to predict the future. But what I would say is that it gets into very dangerous territory for Ukraine. President Trump has already slowed down or essentially stopped many of the pure aid deliveries that the US was offering. In moments of frustration, he's cut off some of the intelligence sharing. A lot of that's come back. But if Trump feels that Ukraine was the impediment to the talks going forward, which undeniably will be Putin's narrative and something that he laid the groundwork for in Alaska, as Trump and Putin were standing on stage, Putin said that he was committed to peace and that he hoped that Ukraine and the European capitals wouldn't interfere.

19:38fear. And if that's something that Trump believes he has been sincere about, it's a moment of peril for Ukraine. The alternate is we have seen Trump increasingly frustrated with Putin throughout this process. He said he thought this was going to be the easiest war to broker. He said in a hot mic moment at yesterday's summit that he thought, as crazy as it sounded, Putin was really sincere about trying to strike a deal with him. And if he feels that Putin was stringing him along, if he feels that Putin was lying to him, and in fact, has sort of embarrassed him as a president who has largely defended outreach and conversation with Russia, then it's possible that we could see the US rally around and restart support for Ukraine.

20:26But there is this sort of fear that underscores all of this, which I do think that Trump understands that if there was a catastrophe in Ukraine, where he was seen, you know, it seemed like Trump was at fault for Ukraine falling, that it could reverberate politically in the way that the withdrawal from Afghanistan reverberated politically for President Biden, and was the real sort of precipice from which his approval ratings fell, that sort of thing. And so he's, Trump is going to have to navigate it. Peter, I'll put the last question to you. And we've talked about the fear in Europe broadly of this ending with that worst case scenario.

21:04So we see Russia get the territory that it's tried to claim. Ukraine's not allowed to join NATO. If this war ends in that way, with what seems like a victory for Russia, how will Ukrainians tell the story of this war, of their fighting it, of it lasting as long as it did? If it ends in a way that they don't want it to, how are they going to tell the story of this war? Well, for Ukrainians, this war is just another episode of them trying to break with Russia. And, you know, if we look at throughout the history of Ukraine, it's this tug of war, you know, the country that's sort of stuck between Europe and its bigger neighbor, much bigger neighbor that's trying to just control them, sometimes did.

21:46So being abandoned and losing that war will be a huge disappointment, obviously for the country and for the young people who have been hoping that that will finally kind of bring them closer to Europe.

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23:07Do you know I just found out who Sidney Sweeney was? If he got a bunch of women, then I should have a bunch of men. Do better or do less so I don't have to do so much. I'm Yamanika, and I'm out. Listen to You're the Problem with Yamanika on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

23:51And download Roland Martin Unfiltered on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.