AI Device Wars Heat Up, RIP Metaverse?, Netflix Acquires Warner Brothers

28:23Okay. Lastly, Google. Like we talked about the originator of the Google Glass. They are doing partnerships with Samsung and Warby Parker for a mixed reality version of Gemini. Could they come out on top? I mean, everybody wrote them off in the beginning of the AI race and look at where they are now. So maybe they get the glasses right as well. Yeah. I think so. I had like a Pixel 9 that I had not used in a long time. It was just gifted it a while back. And like I plugged it in because I was like, I want to just start seeing what it's like to have Gemini around all day. And it I actually think glasses aside, just what Siri is supposed to do on the iPhone, like every Android device out there having Gemini as your voice interaction layer is is a huge advantage.

29:12The same way Echoes in everyone's house gives them a natural starting point. It gives Amazon a natural starting point. I think Google, I think that's where they're going to make a dent. And that's why if they really push people to talk to Gemini through your phone at the system level and not opening the app, that really opens up a lot of opportunity for them. Okay. Lastly, as we think about this category, there have been many failures so far. The Humane Pin, the Rabbit R1. RIP Humane. RIP. Now you're at HP. I can't believe they went to HP. Speaking of these lofty introduction videos, reminds me of the Sam and Johnny Ive introduction video.

29:56Should we count HP in all this? No. No. I swear I'm telling you, I want to throw that printer that I have out. We picked up the printer on the sidewalk for free. It worked for about a year, and I want to throw it out the window. So I'm not putting HP in there. But we have seen these failed devices. Friend.com, I don't know if that's going to work. It doesn't seem like it. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Is that just like the early startup energy finding a category that's going to work, failing and sort of waiting for big tech to come in and pick it up? Or is that a sign of something much worse? Maybe the fact that, yeah, all these companies have an AI device initiative, but maybe it won't work.

30:39Maybe this is just a bunch of wheel spinning and we're sort of talking our way through something that's not really going to work. See, I think the humanes of the world, the rabbits of the world, were actually victims of hype and of the cycle. Like a proper startup having time to kind of like work through, get it into the hands of early adopters, have people test buggy devices, be happy about it. They never had that because they got so hyped up so fast. They raised so much money. They came out big with lofty videos and these devices did not work well to start. So I don't think, again, I'm not, I really think the AI first device battle is going to be one of the most interesting stories of the next few years.

31:25And speaking of hype that hasn't panned out, the metaverse. This is from Bloomberg. Mark Zuckerberg plans deep cuts for metaverse efforts. Meta's Mark Zuckerberg is expected to meaningfully cut resources for building the so-called metaverse, an effort he once framed as the future of the company and the reason for changing its name. From Facebook Inc., executives are considering potential budget cuts as high as 30 % for the metaverse group this year, which includes the virtual world's product, Meta Horizon Worlds, and its Quest virtual reality units. cuts that high would most likely include layoffs as early as January.

32:06It's amazing seeing the names of these products, Horizon Worlds. Never forget. What the hell do those products look like today? Is there anybody roaming around the actual metaverse anymore? I would say except for meta employees, but meta employees didn't even use it. Actually, hold on. Now that makes me wish I don't own any meta VR products. I've tried all of them. I want to like put it on and just go into Horizon Worlds and see who's there. Like you're just going to find some random guy just holding on. Boz is in there. Yeah. I hate to say it. I mean I shouldn't even say it. But you could imagine there are some unscrupulous types making their way around Horizon Worlds.

32:49Actually, maybe it is kind of like an amazing Blade Runner style dystopian place right now. Just like the end of society in the Wild West Ghost Towns. Mad Max, Blade Runner. This is like, now I'm kind of interested. Yeah. But do you think this is, okay, so they're going to cut 30 % potentially. Is this the end of the metaverse? Seems like it. Seems like that's over. And it's good because, again, an augmented reality layer in their – whatever was supposed to happen before did not. It didn't work. I think moving to all these other new form factors and opportunities, the fact that they're going all in, hiring the Apple execs, it's good.

33:28It's good. I think it's over. I think virtual reality should go back to niche use cases, gaming, hopefully keep improving, be this kind of like product that's maybe a reasonably big market, but not the way everyone interacts with life. Right. We just had Nick Clegg back on the VP of the former head of global affairs at Meta. And to prepare for that interview, I listened to the time that I interviewed him at Davos and like four years ago. And back then he was telling me about how how great it was that he was able to have a meeting with his direct reports in a virtual conference room and feel presence.

34:11And the fact that like they might be in separate cities or countries and they could all feel together. I think in theory that might have sounded like a good idea. Did anyone really do that? I think Meta might have done it a little bit. Did you guys really do that? Come on. Did these meetings ever take place in reality? I so wonder whether – because it's funny you bring that up. That actually would be kind of a fun – I'm going to go on YouTube and start looking up those old interviews because it's going to sound – It sounds preposterous. Preposterous right now. Again, we could sound preposterous five years from now when you're all listening to me and the replays of talking about pins and whatever else.

34:55Big blocks that just record your voice all the time could sound ridiculous. Yeah. All right. So overall, metaverse dead, but good pivot from meta because they were able to put a lot of that technology into this AI glasses, which is actually showing promise. Do you think Mark Zuckerberg should more directly say it was a mistake? Yeah. Yeah, I think he should. I think he should too. He should say it was a mistake. We're Facebook. We're back to Facebook. We're back in a big way. We actually figured out and are leading this next revolution in hardware. And you know what? We tried. We took a bet. It failed.

35:29But look at us. We're like agile and enough to actually keep going versus the, well, there was so long where they were like trying to like conflate the AI development with the metaverse. Just like refusing to acknowledge it was over. Right. I'm thinking about the name. Maybe keep Meta, actually, because the Ray-Ban Meta is a good name. The Ray-Ban Facebooks would be weird. I don't know. Oh, you're right. Actually, Meta has maybe grown on me, even though it's embarrassing. No, you're right. And Meta, it doesn't necessarily mean the metaverse. It's just kind of, it's meta, you know. Yeah. Yeah, I mean.

36:05No, no, you're right. Ray-Ban Facebooks would have been terrible. Ray-Ban Meta, I say it all the time, totally naturally. Yeah, yeah. Okay. So metaverse dead, but meta is alive. Meta is alive. All right, we're going to take a quick break. And when we come back, we're going to talk about the code red inside OpenAI regarding ChatGPT, what the implications are there, whether ChatGPT is actually losing users, whether Anthropic might be gaining in the enterprise world. And then we are also going to break down this big deal that was just announced this morning. Netflix is planning to acquire Warner Brothers Discovery for$72 billion.

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39:44Wealthfront brokerage is not a bank. Rate is subject to change. Promo terms and conditions apply. For more information, see the episode description. And we're back here on Big Technology Podcast, Friday edition, breaking down the week's news. Earlier in the week, I thought this was going to be our lead story, but so much has happened since that we pushed it to the second half, but it's still important. OpenAI declared a code red within the company as Gemini threatens ChatGPT's lead. Here's from the information. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman on Monday told employees he was declaring a code red to marshal more resources to improve ChatGPT as threats rise from Google and other artificial intelligence competitors.

40:24As a result, OpenAI plans to delay other initiatives, such as advertising. Altman said, we are at a critical time for ChatGPT. Altman said the code red surge to improve ChatGPT meant OpenAI would also delay progress with other products, such as AI agents and Pulse, which generates personalized reports for ChatGPT users to read each morning. How dire is it for ChatGPT? I mean, there are some reports that they lost like 6 % of users to Gemini. I don't know if I fully buy that. I don't think everybody just ran away to Gemini right away. Maybe they were trying it. But how dire do you think the situation is for ChatGPT right now?

41:05So the numbers around 6 % was sourced from similar web. So I take that with a grain of salt because that's not going to capture actual app utilization. And that's just like web traffic, which I mean, I have to imagine at least my own personal life. And I'm guessing most the app is like the core entry point for their chat GPT usage. But I mean, certainly Gemini three has come on strong. And we talked about this last week that just being as good poses not an existential threat, but a significant one for open AI, because Gemini is going to be everywhere. All the people who have never used ChatGPT, 800 million is a lot.

41:45It's not, what is the world at now? 7 billion people, whatever it is. So I think that is important. But also what was really interesting to me was what you just read there. Like, it's gonna, you know, is it gonna pause its ad product? Is it gonna, even the fact that they said, like, pausing agents, like which because to me still agentic is even chat gpt what's happening underneath is agenting in its nature but whatever they were advertising before about kind of building these more agentic workflows or their agent builder which they launched and you never heard about again and then pulse which we talked about a little bit but it's an ad product that that's supposed to be their ad product yeah all of this and what we were saying about their consumer devices is they have been launching everything like nonstop over like I mean and everything always kind of looks pretty good their browser atlas I've tried it used it it's as good as comet from perplexity um they've launched all these things but is that the right approach like to you know the spray and pray and hope you find like the winning product or you just focus on chat gpt and the core product and just distribution, getting people using it.

43:07Maybe there's like a marketing campaign, something like that. What do you think? Well, they're going to have to spend, they're planning to spend$1.4 trillion on developing infrastructure for future model building. And the reason why they have the money to be able to do that is because the world, by and large, thinks that they're the best at building AI, at building AI products. The second that sheen goes away, all of a sudden your ability to raise this ungodly amount of money goes away. It goes completely. Right? Like Mark Benioff had an interesting quote this week where he was just like, yeah, models are a commodity.

43:40I just find the cheapest one and plug it in. Who has said that, Mark? Who's been saying that for years right here? He's been on the show. Yeah. And maybe he's listening. But I do think that if the world starts to pick – and obviously, Benioff praised Gemini. If the world starts to pick up on the signal and all of a sudden, chat GPT is one of many – or OpenAI and chat GPT and the GPT models are one of many as opposed to the leader, then the OpenAI story gets much, much harder to put together. Yeah. And then I had actually seen this thread and it was really interesting to me. It was that like OpenAI, and I've said this for a long time too, from a product, and actually we've spoken, we're speaking about like hardware UI for all the early part of the episode.

44:24from a software UI standpoint, they have built beautiful products. They've built usable products. They created the whole chat UI was not really a true thing. And now like they led the way and all Google has to do is just copy everything they do. Wait for them to innovate, release, just copy because UI is not patented. UI is not going to be like, and like whatever new features they're releasing in that interface. Google just replicates it. It's not overly complicated stuff. And then Google, that just keeps them on par. And I think like that actually, thinking about it that way was even more terrifying for me in regards to OpenAI.

45:09Yeah, I'm looking at some data from the FT here. It looks like Gemini is getting very close to the number of monthly downloads that ChatGPT has. It surpassed it in average time spent, which of course, is a tricky metric. But that's pretty worrying, I think, if you're open AI. Because again, and we're going to talk about this in a moment, you've effectively, I wouldn't say you've seeded enterprise AI, but you're losing enterprise AI to Anthropic. Somewhat seeded it. So you have to, you have to, you cannot allow Gemini to surpass you here. Otherwise, the company is built on a story. If the story falls apart, the company falls apart.

45:49No, no, you're right. Like, and that story is we are just better we're the best we're super intelligence yeah you see and you're right like for what is it now three years just a week out from the third anniversary for call it two and a half there was no one even close like even the clods of the world like uh among uh more tech forward people they would find things and i mean we all found like certain things claude would do better. But yeah, they can't lose that reputation and feel in the market that, especially in the consumer space, like they own it. Okay. We talked about this last week. What do you think they do in this Code Red?

46:33Like, what do you think they do to make ChatGPT better? And does it potentially involve pulling some levers that they were reticent to pull or hesitant to pull previously, uh, in terms of personality, sycophancy, uh, stickiness and get, you know, optimizing engagement, maxing as it's called. Where are you going with this, Alex? I think I know. Love erotica. Erotica. No, it doesn't even have to be. I'm just saying like, what do you do? No, no. I mean, and clearly, uh, Alexa is your companion but uh i think thank you for reminding us all while i'm just taking photos of birds with my meta glasses uh we're hip we're cool uh no i i hold on that's a really good question what could they do or what should they do because like i'm gonna throw it out there they need a good marketing campaign i still so my parents over thanksgiving it's very cute they're just like So what do I do with AI?

47:36You know, like I'm trying to show them trying to show them like voice mode on especially like my dad has trouble kind of typing on the phone. I'm like, this literally will be amazing for you. And it's just conceptually, it's still difficult to understand. Like, what do I do with this? It's a blank screen on a chat. Like, that's my call. Like, educate the 6.2 billion people that don't really understand how to use AI chat. And that's your opportunity. And so what would you put in the marketing campaign? I think they've done a little bit of this. They do, like, fitness and diet. Not diet, like fitness and travel.

48:15That was a good campaign. I think it's amazing for fitness. Yeah, yeah. No, no, everything. I use it, like, as my fitness coach. No, no. And as you can tell, viewers, it's paying off. that's why alex is so interested so so no no like again it was good it was like i remember it was like uh someone's car is broken down it's like uh like help me fix my radiator what should i do whatever like there's an opportunity there i think the product is good enough there's still that entire additional world of people that do not use it focus on them but but i really don't understand how they're gonna they have so much going on right now they have to have so much going on i said it last week like the math still doesn't work to me of like what does their cloud business look like what does their consumer devices business actually look like but they have to focus and i don't think they will but how do they say themselves i don't think it's marketing campaign.

49:18Here's a way I think that you can make the product better and not resort to sycophancy. Improve memory. Memory to me within ChatGPT has been the killer feature. I find ChatGPT is remembering much more about me in a way that I find not creepy, very useful. I've been planning this trip coming up in December and we've been talking about logistics a tremendous amount and it really does a great job of pulling from past conversations and, again, like losing this goldfish brain that so many chatbots have, starting to get to know people better. I mean, does that make it more of a companion? Yeah, because it knows you.

50:04But I think that will make it unbelievably more useful, and that's the direction I think they're going. Agreed. And I actually, I agree with the caveat that like I have found it to the memory to actually be not good. Like it's supposed to retain memory within a project, but across multiple chats within a project, it does not like very clearly. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. At the kind of like when you get out of the project layer into the main chat, it sometimes randomly remembers stuff. So I think they got work to do, but okay, I like that. Just imagine that that got 50 % better, which I think it can.

50:43And if you had granular control over what is remembered, what's not remembered, where is it remembered. Sometimes if I'm doing some funny create song lyrics here and then in another chat where I'm trying to do something more professional, it'll pull in that random prompt I was creating. Like giving users granular control over that is interesting. But they got so much going on over there. I don't see how like that's one of those things that all hands on deck lets win memory in context. That is interesting. But can they pull it off? I think so. Code red. I like the code red. You see you have a problem and you're going to attack it.

51:26Did you order the code red? Sam did. Yeah. Okay, let's talk a little bit about enterprise before we move to Netflix. We could talk about this briefly. Ramp has this AI model adoption rate where it talks about businesses. And Anthropic is really gaining ground on open AI there. Let me take a look here. So they say that Anthropic has grown 2.1 percentage points over the past month. and they say, at a business level, API spend by business is larger than typical enterprise chatbot contracts. It's also probably getting stickier over time because business users are starting to figure out which models are best for which tasks.

52:12APIs are also a more reliable revenue generator than consumer AI usage, especially as consumers have an increasingly numbers of free options at their disposal. So I'd be pretty happy to be Anthropik right now. It's an underrated business if you're looking at consumer adoption of AI tools. And business use is their most important revenue generator. It's customer base indexes to the tech sector. But that's changing as rapid adoption grows and moves across sectors. So there it is. Anthropik's bet on enterprise is really paying off. No, I mean, I think it is. And again, like, as I work in enterprise AI at Writer, like, for us, the big opportunity is actually business users building workflows and like bringing AI into the way they work.

53:00And Anthropic, I still feel, I mean, from everything I've heard, and they've made claims that they're getting more into the actual business side of things. But one, coding and two, API usage. It's still a developer first company. Like even the way I actually have been working, like playing around with Claude's skills, very developer driven. So they're going all in on like IT engineering and that side of the enterprise. Like I think it's actually great for them and I think they're going to crush OpenAI in that. So I think overall they have shown, I think as a revenue scale from like one to six billion, a lot of the coding they nailed.

53:42I mean, just being this API first offering, they nailed. So I think they're relatively well positioned. But I actually don't think the way this article called like API spend sticky, I don't think it's sticky. Really? No, I think like that's actually almost more having worked with this stuff. I mean, just switching out what you're calling. Like truly, this is where even at one point, if Opus 4.5 is better at coding, cost is going to be the driver, especially in the enterprise. And being able to switch the moment you see that there's another model that can actually do the work on par is a very easy thing to do.

54:25Okay. All right. Well, the battle will continue. Let's talk a little bit about this Netflix Warner Brothers deal. All right. So this is from the Wall Street Journal. Netflix to buy Warner Brothers after a split for$72 billion. Netflix has agreed to buy Warner Brothers for$72 billion after the entertainment company splits its studios and HBO Max streaming businesses, a business from its cable networks, a deal that would reshape the entertainment and media industry. The deal was announced Friday, and the two sides entered into exclusive negotiations for the media company known for the Superman and Harry Potter movies, as well as TV shows, hit TV shows such as Friends.

55:05It seemed like it's going to be this big deal for Netflix. I just think that if you get Warner Brothers Discovery, and of course it's pending review by the Justice Department, which may not like this deal. The early reports are the Justice Department hates this deal and may not let it go through. It may sue to block it. But the bottom line is that this is going to create a streaming powerhouse. Netflix already extremely powerful, the number one streamer and HBO coming together along with other Warner Brothers Discovery properties. I think Netflix, it's a risky thing. They don't usually do deals this big.

55:43But at$72 billion, the price is right. And you couldn't let anybody else snatch up Warner Brothers Discovery. What's your take? I think it's that last point is the most important. You can't allow anyone else to pick that up. I think like they are in they're still, you know, kind of the leader in this entire space. They don't have to like manage legacy businesses combined with a streaming arm that gives some advantage, but also plenty of disadvantage. And so to kind of pull that this entire gold mine of a catalog into your universe, I think it's it's it's like, yeah, it's not defensive in a negative way.

56:24It's defensive in a strong way. Like we are trying, we need to do this. And it's going to put us in a better position relative to competitors. Yeah, I think Netflix needs to do this from a business standpoint. Smart move. I do want the government to stop it. Now, the government might want to stop it because they preferred that Warner Brothers Discovery go to Paramount+. Fair enough. Why is that? Well, because of politics. But the other side of it to me is like even though as a Netflix subscriber I might be happy to get some HBO content in Netflix because I subscribe to both services. We know how cable companies work.

57:01They've worked as monopolies. They don't treat customers well. They jack up the prices. There's nothing you can do about it. This might just create like one internet cable company and, you know, over time, it's going to harm the people that are using these services. So I'm against it. It's 100 % going to. I mean, if you've – I actually did this exercise recently and like went through my streaming bills. Like it is insane. Like I mean the price has just been increased and increased and increased. So I'll admit, I like took an HBO Max Disney Hulu bundle with ads and it is the weirdest feeling to watch HBO with ads.

57:42Like I feel just horrible about myself, but I'm still just going through this exercise right now. But like, I mean, it is like they've just been increasing, but introducing these services at a heavy loss, getting people in hooked on them and then just increasing prices regularly. And agreed, like from a consolidation standpoint, Ted Sarandos called this like pro-innovation, pro-consumer. It's not. It's not. It's not. But still, I mean, from a purely Netflix standpoint, good move. For consumers, it's all bad. Okay. So let's end on another future of media story, which is that CNN is going to end up in a partnership with Kalshi, which is a prediction market.

58:29This is from prediction market. This is from Axios. CNN has struck a partnership with Kalshi, the world's largest global prediction market company, bringing Kalshi's data to its journalism across television, digital and social channels. The collaboration marks the first major news partnership for Kalshi as it looks to establish itself as the most authoritative source of information about real time probabilities of major cultural and political future events. plus and a minus here. The plus is that prediction markets have been ahead of the pundits on news events. Talk about elections, talk about other probabilities.

59:08So you might want to bring it close to home if you're a news operation. Second thing is, I think there was a Kalshi executive this week that was talking about how they wanted to make everything bettable, everything that has a potential disagreement about some future outcome, they want to make that bettable. I think we've already seen some of the dangers of sports gambling and how it's really destroying people's lives. And I think that you're going to see that again here. And I wonder if CNN is making a mistake mainstreaming this. So having worked on a trading floor from 2002 to 2009, I can tell you everything can be bettable.

59:45I lived in a world where literally any little disagreement, and it was funny because the Cal Shea founder, that's what he was talking about, like any, like basically trying to bring structure to disagreement, I think he said, like, that's what would happen. You just disagree with someone, let's put money on it. And I have always loved the idea of prediction markets. There was actually an early one in the 2000s called Trade Sports that started introducing politics. I mean, every step of the way recently, as prediction markets have like, come in, I think they add a true element of like context and have people having money versus punditry i think they are better i think from a gambling standpoint and cal she tries to say they're not gambling i think it's hugely problematic like i think there are certain things like weather futures which i think robin hood is going to introduce this stuff exists for like institutional customers and like But hedging your business against potential weather issues, it makes sense.

1:00:47Combine contracts that allow you to hedge against potential risk. That's the thesis of it. Trading for fun and just being like, yeah, I want to make or lose money. The more it's out there is problematic. But I actually think this is kind of cool. I just don't like the idea that a news operation is bringing this gambling closer to people. I think it's ruining, for instance, daily fantasy sports or fantasy sports is ruining the fan duels and stuff, ruining sports. People are cheating. People are taking their student loans and putting them into these apps. Yeah, but no, no. OK, but that is the end user.

1:01:28Like the perfect world, you have some number of well-informed, well-capitalized people in these markets, which is what financial markets are supposed to be. And like they're the ones actually driving and towards this kind of prediction and potential outcome, which in the political context is really interesting because my God, I was home over Thanksgiving and my parents have CNN on and I forgot how terrible it is watching 10 people because I never do it. just talk and argue around a table, like versus here's some interesting data. And if you think about it, polling is an interesting science. But like this is another way of approaching that.

1:02:12But you on the show have talked about how it's gameable, how let's say somebody wants to get a candidate elected. You know, they might spend$100 ,000 on the super PAC or they might just put it on their name. So Calci and then CNN is going to be like, oh, candidate Y is doing so well. That is why normally this stuff would have happened in well-regulated, well-established, well-monitored exchanges where the SEC or the others, CFTC, are monitoring this. This is not that. So I recognize this is kind of a bastardization of what, in principle, I do love. And I really think is valuable. So I agree. Like on that side, my God, I'm sure these things are the most gameable things.

1:02:56And I agree. It's a problem where you game the Calci. They start sending some awful tweet about that. It goes viral. Everyone starts thinking this outcome is an inevitability. Maybe someone drops out of a race. I think that stuff is terrible. Regulators, go. Try to take a look at this. Let's build this in a responsible way. That would be nice. Can't happen. No, I know. All right. Well, speaking of predictions, it is getting close to the end of the year. So you and I should come back and do some predictions one of these weeks and tell folks what we think is going to happen next year. And then put money on it.

1:03:33And then put money on it. Prediction market. And source that out. Big technology prediction market. Let's put these derivative contracts out there. All right. But that'll be a fun episode coming up. Rajan, always great to have you on. and it's great to be able to do this in person once again. Always fun. See you next week. All right, 57 in music taste. Yep. I'll take my creaky knees out of here right now. All right, everybody. Thank you, Ranjan, and thank you all for listening and watching. We'll see you next time on Big Technology Podcast.

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