Apple's Future After The Vision Pro — With Mark Gurman

9 Jun 2023 · 35 min

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Big Technology Podcast Episode Summary

Episode Details

  • Podcast Title: Big Technology Podcast
  • Episode Title: Apple's Future After The Vision Pro — With Mark Gurman
  • Air Date: [Insert Date]
  • Host: Alex Kantrowitz
  • Guests: Mark Gurman (Chief Correspondent at Bloomberg), Ranjan Roy

Episode Overview In this episode, the hosts discuss the implications of Apple's Vision Pro announcement with Mark Gurman, who provides insights into the device's future, societal impacts, and comparisons with competitors like Meta. The discussion centers around the potential of the Vision Pro as a computing device, its market positioning, and the technological hurdles it faces.

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Key Discussion Points

  1. Vision Pro's Trajectory
  2. Long-term Outlook: Mark believes it may take up to five years to realize the full potential of the Vision Pro. Initial consumer excitement may not translate to immediate usability.
  3. Design Concerns: The headset is described as bulky and heavy (over a pound), raising questions about comfort and wearability.
  1. Market Positioning
  2. Price Point: At $3,499, Gurman notes the price is unappealing to mass consumers and significantly higher than competitors like Meta's Quest devices.
  3. Product Market Fit: The Vision Pro is positioned as a productivity device rather than a social device, contrasting with Meta's approach.
  1. Societal Impact
  2. Dystopian Concerns: The hosts express worries about the isolating potential of the technology, highlighting that promotional videos featured users in solitary situations, which raised concerns about social interaction.
  3. Use Case Confusion: Doubts are cast on the practical use cases for the Vision Pro, particularly the concept of using it in social settings like birthday parties.
  1. Comparative Analysis: Apple vs. Meta
  2. Product Differentiation: Gurman describes Apple’s Vision Pro as a premium product geared toward enterprise and productivity, while Meta targets a more consumer-friendly approach.
  3. Long-Term Viability: Discussions indicate that while Meta's Quest series may initially attract consumers due to lower pricing, Apple could dominate the higher-end market once the Vision Pro’s technology matures and prices drop.
  1. Future of Computing
  2. Potential for Integration: Gurman posits that the Vision Pro could eventually replace devices like the Mac and iPad if it becomes lightweight and user-friendly enough.
  3. Software Ecosystem Needs: A robust software ecosystem and developer support are essential for the Vision Pro to become a staple in modern computing.

Key Quotes

  • Gurman on the Vision Pro's Design: "It's a huge device... Are people really going to want to wear something on their head that can overheat and is heavy?"
  • Kantrowitz on Usability: "The product... has limitations of everything else on the market effectively."
  • Gurman on Societal Concerns: "I think it was a sad and incredibly massive mistake... showing people using it alone."

Conclusion The discussion highlights the uncertainty surrounding the Vision Pro's immediate impact on consumers and its long-term potential as a revolutionary computing device. While it garners excitement, significant hurdles in design, pricing, and societal acceptance must be addressed for it to achieve widespread adoption.

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This summary captures the essential discussions and insights from the episode, providing a concise overview of the challenges and possibilities surrounding Apple's Vision Pro.

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Transcript

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0:28The truth is AI security is identity security. identity security fabric can help you secure the next generation of identities, including your AI agents. Visit Okta.com. That's O-K-T-A dot com. Capital One's tech team isn't just talking about multi-agentic AI. They already deployed one. It's called Chat Concierge, and it's simplifying car shopping. Using self-reflection and layered reasoning with live API checks. It doesn't just help buyers find a car they love. It helps schedule a test drive, get pre-approved for financing, and estimate trade in value. Advanced, intuitive, and deployed. That's how they stack.

1:09That's technology at Capital One.

1:20Welcome to Big Technology Podcast Friday edition, where we break down the news in our traditional cool-headed and nuanced format. We are live here with Mark Gurman, Chief Correspondent at Bloomberg and a person that scooped the crap out of the latest Apple event. We're going to talk about Vision Pro. Huge week. Welcome, Mark. Thanks for having me. Glad to be here. Really appreciate it. Glad to finally come on here. And yeah, like you said, it was a big week for Apple, big week for tech, and looking forward to diving into all of it. Yeah. And we're also joined, as always, by Ranjan Roy of Margins.

1:54Ranjan and I, we've been talking about this for weeks. I'm ready for this one. I am stoked to break it down with you because we're definitely not in agreement about where this device is. Not at all. So we'll see. We'll see. Mark, let's start it off. I'm curious who's for it and who's against it. What's your guess? I would guess Alex is the one against it and Ron John's for it. You would be correct on that. This is why you're the best at what you do, man. Nailed it once again. So let's start off just to get your perspective because one of the things that you've said about this device is the thing that you saw on stage, we're really only going to know like five years from now about whether that vision is going to come to fruition.

2:33So what do those five years look like? and seeing some of the early excitement about the Vision Pro, do you still believe it's going to take five years or can we see the payoff a little bit earlier? Oh, I don't think we're going to see a major payoff until five years at the earliest from now, right? I mean, let's start with the overall design, right? This is a bulkier headset. It's on the bulky side. It weighs a bit over a pound. There's multiple straps. You have the big strap that goes on the back of your head. There was a big strap that goes over your head that they kind of hid in the keynote.

3:09They showed it for like a split second in the keynote. They tweeted a picture of it. The hands-on demos, which you couldn't take pictures of, they had them, but no one could publicize it. The only camera they let in the room was for Good Morning America. And for that scene, they didn't have the ink or wear of the top headset, so they're kind of trying to hide it. It's a huge, huge device. If you do the AR demo on your iPhone, right, and you overlay the headset design over a place in your home or whatever, I've done it. It's the size of a 16-inch MacBook Pro almost in terms of the length and the width.

3:46So it is a big device. It is a lot to carry. So you start with that. Are people really going to want to wear something on their head that A, can overheat, B, is heavy, and C, you know, even with the external display and the pass-through lens to see your eyes it's really kind of social isolating and dystopian right and then you get to the price point thirty five hundred dollars which is a very unappealing price point for the mass consumer and then three it's a very nascent technology are there really people who want to work in that ar vr spatial environment uh instead of working on a normal ipad or laptop and i think that that's going to cause some serious reservations for people to adopt this device in the near term.

4:29On the other hand, I am very optimistic about this product long-term. I think with the right hardware modifications, I think with the right price adjustments and the right software ecosystem, which will take a number of years, I think that this is the future of computing and has the unique potential, I'm not saying it's gonna happen, potential to knock out the iPad, the Mac, and the iPhone altogether together and be the next phase of computing for the next several decades but it is going to take time to take off Apple did need to start somewhere right they could not just keep this in the lab for another five years until they get to the point uh of it being a proper device because you need to build up a those economies of scale for manufacturing and design over time you need to get user feedback and you need to get the developer ecosystem running the negative is this is basically a 3500 beta test or prototype the positive is that the technology will eventually get to where it needs to go to become the computer of the future future of computing alex did you hear that i mean he's sort of like i i'm in full agreement with mark here except his his more optimistic view of where this can go i'm not necessarily sold that we're going to get there in five years but i think everything that mark said about what we saw this week is sort of where i my skepticism comes from which is that we knew we were getting a shiny demo from Apple.

5:51We knew this company, there's no better company at selling people on its devices than Apple. But in terms of the usability in the near future, that's sort of, I have the same exact issue, which is that, yeah, the product that we're going to see is unlike Apple, which usually pushes the technology that's in play forward by a few generations. And this just, it feels like, you know, a very nice product, but one that still has limitations of everything else on the market effectively. and so that's why i'm not saying what limitations do you think it has compared to the other devices on the market like what are what are your concerns i'm curious your concerns from the get-go i think mark like your reporting basically pointed this out perfectly which is that the company wanted every company is trying to get to this pair of standalone glasses that you don't need a battery pack it doesn't look like you're wearing goggles the the even passing through the eyes you know on that screen on the front doesn't really solve that problem i think that's that's what you know when apple went from you know the blackberry era to creating the iphone everybody knew that this was the the eventual evolution of the device they said this is sort of where it's going to get to and they'll just evolve on that from there with this device no one's thinking that this is where it's going to get to everyone believes that this is a step toward the future but not the future And that's where I say in the near term, Mark, I'm in total agreement with you.

7:15Now we'll see where it goes in the future. I've actually become more bullish on virtual reality and augmented reality over time because I'm starting to see those use cases. But we'll see. Is this a five-year project? Is this a 10-year project? Because like your reporting points out, this is something Apple started in 2015. And to spend seven years on it, a company like Apple, right, spend seven years on it and get here, it's a little disappointing. Wait, but there's two parts to that. One, when the iPhone came out, and again, as someone who stood in line for that first iPhone, it wasn't a given where it was going to go.

7:48There we go. And people were still laughing about no copy paste text at the time. The idea everyone wanted their physical keyboard on a Blackberry and thought no way would people be touch typing onto a screen. So I don't think that it was inevitable. And then the iPhone took us there because that base and foundation of technology was so good. But to me, I actually think I'm more excited the more I've thought about this, that there is a battery pack and it is a helmet. And here's why. Okay. I'm ready to hear it. Here's my hot take on this one. If it was standalone glasses you could wear everywhere.

8:25And the idea was this is going to be an interface between you and everyday life as you're out and about in the world. I think it would be set up for failure. I think it would introduce too many social complications. It would be the technology would not be good enough. But it's just telling us you're sitting at home. This is basically a computer no different than if I'm sitting on my laptop on my couch or if I have my phone in front of me while other people are moving around the house around me. So to me, the fact that it's still very clearly outlined is this is something for you sitting at home, not out in the real world or not out in the world.

9:01I think that is one of the most important things where it's telling you it's no different than using a computer. And it's not like you're walking around with your laptop out on the street. I agree with you there. And I see your message on the screen is future of the computer versus complementary media and productivity device. I think it is the future of the computer, right, versus a complementary media and productivity device. I think Rajon's point about it being a productivity device at home or at work, I think those are spot-on use cases, right? I would use this thing instead of a Mac or an iPad for those use cases.

9:38Where Apple lost me in the presentation were the iPhone-like use cases, the stuff about wearing it to your child's birthday party and using that to be the device to take pictures. It's great that those functions are included. When I heard that the headset had a camera app, I wrote that a few months ago, I didn't anticipate the use case being you're actually going to go around taking pictures with it. My feeling was if you were already using it and it already has cameras and you happen to be there and you see something, you can use it to take a picture. I wasn't anticipating it to be such a core part of the product.

10:15I think that's absurd. At the same time, there were people thinking that, oh, an iPad having a camera, no one's going to take pictures with an iPad and everyone takes pictures with an iPad now. It's not an apples to apples comparison. I, for one, never thought the iPad taking pictures thing was ridiculous. This is absurd. So I think from a product marketing perspective, that was definitely the weakest point and everyone caught on it that I think someone said like divorce dad meme i'm like the guy taking pictures of his children with the headset on however i think what this product release like the product launch made me think about is all the ways we already intermediate reality with the screen like alex do you remember there was that famous picture we had talked about where everyone at an nba game at the buzzer has their phone right i'm sure german knows about this it's a lakers example oh the lebron was breaking yeah breaking kareem points thing.

11:07Yeah. Everyone wants to give Phil Knight credit, uh, about not having his camera all due respect to Phil Knight. Phil Knight was the oldest man in arena and, uh, 90 % of his life was lived without a phone. So I think he was just used to not having that phone out. But, but that's the thing that right now I've, uh, I just had my four year old's birthday party. Everyone, when we're singing happy birthday has a phone out holding it right in front of their face. So we're already intermediating that interaction with the screen. So it's not coming out of nowhere. Again, the idea that everyone's creepily wearing a helmet, it's still weird.

11:42It's still far off. Maybe you have the one random person in the group that is assigned helmet duty or something like that. Wait, Ronjan, I need to ask. Let me ask you this. You're at your kid's birthday party. You're wearing this augmented reality goggles and you're filming them with the battery pack in your eyes being broadcast in front of your kids and their friends are you really doing that hey who knows again 10 years ago if you told me yeah i was waiting for a solid yes that you were i'm saying all right yes yes five that feature is never going to take off i'm telling you that feature is never going to take off so a little bit some apple history here so the original apple watch uh and every apple watch to date on the right side obviously there's two buttons there's digital crown for scrolling and launching into menus and such and then there's the uh the long button right the elongated button they've changed that button three or four times already maybe five times in watch os 10 the newest version you click that it takes you to control center uh the previous version took you to multitasking the original apple watch back in 2015 that button was designed to launch a menu of your frequent contacts people you want to send your heartbeat to and such That feature never took off.

12:53So they changed it. The Apple headset, it has the button on the left side, the camera shutter button. My bet is that feature gets demoted to just being an app, and that button is relegated to some other feature or some other function, maybe launching your messages app, maybe launching a video player or another feature that people take on over time. I am sold on this device completely as a Mac and iPad replacement, playing games, watching movies and doing all the work you would normally do on a mac even so much as doing conference calls facetimes uh things even like this doing your slack doing your email right a full mac replacement a full ipad replacement this idea that this device is going to be a daily wear outside of work for taking pictures for going to a birthday party for going for the stroll that is never going to take off in this form factor um so i think for what the device is good for apple knocked it out of the park for this extra dystopian stuff i think it's a failure um the good news for apple is that you can pretty quickly shy away from that and just refocus your marketing depending on how people use the product so uh i am concerned about a society where you're wearing these things to your kid's birthday party i am not concerned and i'm pretty pro a society where you're using this at work as a Mac replacement.

14:14I see myself using this at my desk, at the home office, at the office office, keeping it plugged in and doing everything on there. I don't see myself wearing this to a birthday party or date night though. Yeah, go ahead. That was interesting in terms of, I remember getting the first watch and the heartbeat feature, it was almost, it ended up kind of a joke, like I would just send it to friends or because no one knew what to do with it. But that is a good reminder that, yeah, Apple evolves. Apple definitely evolves. And who knows what the camera technology that allows for spatial computing or spatial photography like that could enable.

14:53Because I was surprised. I would have thought they would have like a real estate agent going into a house and showing some super immersive demo again rather than creepy dad trying to take his kid's birthday photos. Wasn't it interesting? That's going to be a quick one. and I wouldn't be surprised if that feature, I'm not saying they're going to kill that feature. That is a very important feature. I think that there's a chance, and I haven't heard anything about this, but it's to switch the functionality of a hardware key is not moving a mountain. I wouldn't be surprised if that key gets, do either of you have the Apple Watch Ultra?

15:31No. Not even Ronjan? Okay. I'm not an adventurer enough. I've got one here. And I can tell you there's a button called the action button on the side. And what you can do is you can choose the functionality of that button. You can map it to a specific workout. You can make it your flashlight. You can do it to run a shortcut command, like take you to your, to work, open your maps direction, start playing a song. And so I think there's two possibilities here. Apple changes that button to a specific function, maybe to launch your frequent contacts to video call them, something like that. or they make it a catch-all button like on the Ultra where you can choose the functionality and you can retain that camera shutter feature.

16:09But I think that's going to be a feature that is not used or desired. So let's just talk about the dystopian part of it and then we're going to get into the battle with Meta because I think it's important because they've made two very different decisions. But one of the things that struck me and I'm not the only one is just how lonely it seemed to people using these devices. Now, of course, you had the divorced dad looking through the pictures of his kids. right but there was also okay i wrote down the scenes in the promo video i got like halfway through here's what we're looking at um you had a woman sitting alone in a spacious room it was 79 seconds in until you saw another person walk in and then those eyes flashed on the screen there was a man sitting at home scrolling through big images of his family there was a woman meditating in a darkened apartment there was a woman watching a movie alone on a couch pinching the screen to make sure that it took up the entire field of vision there was a woman with her feet up playing a basketball video game.

17:03There was a woman in an expensive empty hotel room using the Vision Pro to read the LA Times. And there was a woman on a plane turning everybody else on the flight out. I don't know what the hell they were thinking with these isolated demos. I think it was a sad and incredibly massive mistake because I think that they could have easily shown people in massive office environments using this thing, which I think is where you're going to want to use it. You could have shown people using it for work from home purposes. You couldn't have shown it people using it in bed next to their spouse and maybe both of them using it to watch different movies.

17:47I thought the only Saving Grace demo promo video that they showed for this was probably the airplane scene because you were surrounded by other people. And I think the other part was you had uh that office scene with the man working on his desk standing desk with it and then there was a woman maybe a couple other people in the office it looked like an art studio of sort my question is are they that short-sighted are they that tone deaf to promote the device that way or does this have a little bit more to do with apple's culture culture of secrecy where in the preparation for these demos, they could not theoretically create an environment where to tape these things other than isolated environments to keep the secrecy of the product.

18:40And so for Apple's sake, and I think for the sake of society even, and I don't think that's an exaggeration, I hope it's the latter. I hope it all went down to safety. I like that theory, but again, I'm going to take the other side of this here. um one thing i find fascinating about this and i don't think it's sad because you know what was sad was i just flew back from san francisco but to new york is sitting with a like six inch by four inch screen in front of me cramped in economy trying to watch creed 3 and barely being able to hear what's going or see what's going on so the idea of like a fully immersive entertainment experience with my laptop out you know like on the tray table the idea of being able to have all that in full immersion sounds amazing to me.

19:27But the other thing is like, again, going back to when you're at home, imagine where now it's a question of either you have this on or off. Right now, there's so many interactions in day-to-day life at home, in other places at the office where you have your phone out, you have your laptop out, you're kind of half at attention, you're only half there. When you put on the headset, you're pretty much gone, right? You're pretty much immersed, the eyes or whatever, a little bit of access into you. But overall, you're saying, I'm not here, which I think is actually a better way to approach it because you're not going to do that versus having your phone out at dinner for 40 minutes and kind of being at 50 % attention.

20:09So maybe - It was sad to see the people on their couch watching a movie alone with this headset, I will tell you. You know what was interesting? I'm sorry, go ahead. I can't believe Apple went in that direction, really. You know, what was interesting was they never showed two people in the same room using it. Like, I would think that would be interesting. You built this eye functionality. There was no two people in the room using it. And, German, I don't know if you saw this, but you and I were in the New York Post together talking about how Tim Cook didn't wear the device and just wondering what was behind that.

20:39I think they were trying to protect him. Meme-wise, they know how ridiculous it looks. Yeah. Um, so they let it, uh, be worn by, uh, uh, D list actors instead in their, uh, in their promo videos. We'll see if he wears it one day, but, uh, as a breakdown in my power on tomorrow, there's a picture of Tim with the iPhone 14, Tim cook with the Apple watch, and then Tim cook with the headset. And you can see the difference here. It's a headset. It's not wearing on his head. Yeah. I love the idea of like a serious marketing meeting with a bunch of senior level execs discussing the meme potential of the fact that that happened i mean that that must have happened and that is amazing for 2023 it's ron john's favorite type of fan fiction they made a huge mistake with the promotion of videos in their marketing materials uh i think a colossal mistake uh however i think there's the saving grace is if they you know re-architect the marketing around office environments and uh being home with people and multiple people using it right i mean this idea that they were the birthday party thing ridiculous uh the on the couch alone thing ridiculous the gaming potential on this device is massive they didn't show any of that though they showed apple arcade demos and if you've used apple arcade uh you know you're not talking triple a gaming here you're not talking anything of significance you're talking uh blown up iphone screen size games on your apple headset so clearly there's going to be a lot of work needed by developers to get games ported over to the headset and i think that will be a huge use case for it too at some point that what do you think they avoided going into gaming so as to further differentiate themselves from meta and the quest in general what the perception of vr to date no i do think there's a massive gaming uh component they have obviously the agreement with unity to provide their underlying gaming engine apple has its own meta metal gaming engine and such i said meta but metal metal gaming engine there uh they promoted apple arcade on it too i just think that in order to have demonstrated uh big time games on this device they would have needed to seed it to seed it nine months ago a year ago to developers and i think they just didn't want to do that so i think you're going to have to see the gaming story evolve over the next nine months until the release of this product i'm sure they're pushing it to big time game devs now to get their hands on it and write really great games for it and i think that will happen the question for me is are they going to stick to ps5 and xbox controllers are they going to stick to hand and eye control or will they allow some more extensive gaming controllers uh for the device so we'll see how that shakes out but i think gaming is going to be a massive part of this product long term yeah and in the short term mark it's interesting that they have decided to go this sort of enterprise route and meta is like on a more consumer route and you know i and productivity for Apple and gaming for Meta.

23:34And I thought that I've heard this comparison and I wrote about it this week saying that like, well, Apple is Apple and Meta is Android in this scenario. But actually, Meta is not open sourcing its operating system to other device manufacturers. And it's also like Meta and Android are, I mean, sorry, Apple and Android are two operating systems that effectively do the same thing, let you get into apps on your phone, whereas these are going to be completely different use cases. So I am curious how you think the battle between Apple and Meta shapes up. And do you think Meta is screwed because the Apple device, you know, despite its shortcomings, looks way better than the Quest?

24:13I don't agree with you with all due respect. No, that's okay. Great. What Apple and Meta are doing are essentially one in the same. I mean, Mark Zuckerberg's point in his speech about the Apple headset this past week, I think, was filled with inaccuracies. and I think he did have one salient point that he didn't really uh deliver well is that a lot of what they're doing is the same right Apple's product is a much flashier more refined more expensive version of what Meta is already doing I think Meta is trying to tap both productivity and consumer which I think Apple is doing as well I think Apple had to focus pretty heavily on the productivity and the enterprise market and the business market uh because of the$3 ,500 price point uh seven times the price of the quest three whereas the quest they can go more toward the consumer market because of that cheaper price point uh i don't think meta is i think meta in long term if they don't adapt by open sourcing their operating system and becoming the cheaper android alternative on more types of hardware i think they are in trouble i think that the apple headset eventually will come down in price with cheaper models uh and with the big developer ecosystem it's going to become more interesting to more people and as more use cases are formed so i think that meta's best bet is out doing apple the same way android has outdone ios by going open source going on to other platforms being the cheaper alternative and there's nothing wrong with that uh in the meantime over the next few years or so till apple gets the price down you're going to see consumers lining up for quest threes i think and these other cheaper devices for meta because they want to experience this technology many people didn't hear about believe there are ar and vr across the world they had no idea what it was they had no idea what a quest was they had no idea what meta was doing until this past week when apple made a big deal about augmented and virtual reality and mixed reality now they're going to want to try them try it out on their own they can say wow apple is a 3500 device i can get something that does you know many of the same things and really try out this tech uh under the christmas tree for a seventh of the price this fall so i think that this is actually in the very short term a good thing for meta in the long term if meta doesn't shift their strategy in a wholesale fashion they're in trouble so i disagree with alex from earlier about the idea that they're trying to i like that let's just disagree with alex yeah exactly but this is how it usually goes yeah move away from the enterprise because remember the entire launch of meta the company was like uh legless avatars in meetings and boardrooms or whatever so so i think they were trying to go for that but i do think like mark zuckerberg he was accurate in that they really positioned it as more of a social device whereas apple positioned it more of a productivity consumption device so i think they were accurate about that but i actually think that's even more where it should be a productivity and consumption device and i think the more meta continues to try to make it some kind of social network connecting people type thing that doesn't do that well rather than this is just a really cool technology to experience things whether a web browser or a game i think it definitely puts them at a disadvantage but but i'm curious mark like do you think now that you know some greater number of people are interested in the technology isn't that a risk when then you hear all these great things and then you use one of the lower end quest devices and it's it's it's cool and you play Beat Saber and you it's still again and it was cool a few years ago and some of this stuff will still be interesting but you're not going to be computing on it you're not going to be you know spending too much time in it well I think both companies are are marketing around their core competencies right social networking believe it or not is the core competency a core competency of Facebook meta whatever you want to call it and so the quest is a a hardware manifestation of the company and what they are trying to do why facebook even exists whereas apple does uh productivity they push gaming uh it's computing it's apps right it's video consumption and so the vision pro is a manifestation and hardware of what the company is known for and so that's why you i think you have that big differentiation there so i think at their core Or in terms of how they're positioning it, they're two different products.

28:42But at the end of the day, in terms of the technology and the ultimate capabilities, it's the same stuff. I got a last one for you, Mark. I'm curious. So you actually went back and tried the device. I'd love to hear your reflections of what it was like using it. Like, was it as amazing as some of the demos made it out to be? And then B, just describe what the room felt like when Apple showed that slide that said it was going to be$3 ,499 to buy this. i mean i have a little bad news for you i have not tried the vision pro uh i was not there uh when it was announced either i was not in cupertino for that um you've seen the tick tock video where the crowd's biggest reaction was that that 3 500 price point it's a jarring price point i think apple did an awful job trying to justify the price point i don't think they should have tried to justify it uh they tried comparing it to a bunch of monitors and 4k tvs and surround sound speakers and phones and cameras and such uh i think that's all bs i think they should have just focused on this is what it costs to make this is the price of nascent technology and it'll come down over time uh but they chose the other other direction uh i think the price will come down eventually it is certainly unappealing to the masses at this point uh people have called it a toy for the wealthy and i think eventually it'll come down and be a productivity device for everyone I mean, right now it's the price of a fully loaded, maxed out to some degree.

30:07You can go even higher with memory and such of a MacBook Pro. If they can get it down to the price of an iPad Pro, I think they're in far better shape. And so do you think that, you know, given that it's going to cannibalize the devices that they have today? That was one question that we got. Oh, yeah. I mean, I think long term it can cannibalize the Mac and the iPad. bad and I think if they get the form factor into something like glasses and get phone functionality in that it could cannibalize the iPhone in some respect uh I more so lean towards a future where it's glasses uh glasses and phone and watch together for the most techie consumer and maybe the Vision Pro at home for your Mac right I think it's the glasses and the Vision Pro are two distinct devices rather than one in the same uh so i think eventually you know you might have both right or maybe apple would want you to have both but in the short term you're not going to see much noise or much momentum it's going to take a really long time it's going to take far longer than the iphone and the apple watch uh took to take off right the iphone was uh a not an immediate hit it was a smash hit though within two years two and a half three years uh the apple watch really started to take off with the third and fourth generation so within three years like by 2018 i think the watch was the thing um it's 2024 when this vision pro comes out i'm not sure that we're going to see it have a big impact until 28 29.

31:44i agree with what that person said that if this headset was under a thousand dollars everyone would buy one it's not going to happen though yeah i think the i like the point about the apple watch because if you remember remember the apple watch initially was presented almost as like a fashion device they had the gold plated one i think for i forget what it costs but johnny ive yeah yeah exactly so so they definitely evolved the purpose and function of that so i'm very curious to see how that goes with the vision pro i really like that idea though that the Vision Pro is your at-home computer. And maybe there are more of like a watch style, lightweight device that you can actually take around.

32:26Because again, I still, things over your face and eyes at home and then out in the real world to keep some sanity away from dystopia. It's amazing to me how every time they're launching one of these new products in the recent era, they continue to completely miscalculate and be incredibly tone deaf at the initial product release and then figure it out over the next several years and taper that back right i mean the launch of the apple watch around the fashion idea and those gold uh versions was very tone deaf those were next in a year right and so i think the tone deaf aspects of this vision pro were the promo videos uh as well as the the father the birthday party examples but i think as I tweeted at a high level, they nailed the marketing in terms of the future of the computer as an at-home and work device and a media consumption device on airplanes and hotels and such.

33:24So as long as they focus this thing on the real utility, the price makes a little bit of sense, I think, to more people and the product makes sense to more people. And so this is going to come down to their marketing might, as I wrote when this was announced, right? This is a marketing play. And if they market it correctly, they can have a hit on their hands. So I think, you know, the engineering stuff, they have a lot of work to do, but I think the marketing people at Apple, uh, I think this is their biggest test yet. Mark, thanks so much for coming on. Great to see you, man. Oh, my pleasure.

33:59Thank you both. And, uh, have me on again soon, please, if I may, uh, Oh yeah. Plug the newsletter. Yeah. Yeah. Plug the newsletter, uh, twitter.com slash Mark German. You can follow me there and then you can sign up for power on comes out every Sunday morning, Bloomberg.com slash power on. And thank you both for having me. It was a pleasure to see you, Alex, again. And likewise. Yeah. And I'll just plug the newsletter as well. Like I read power on every single weekend. It's a must for me and I can't recommend it enough. So folks, if you're listening, go sign up for it. It's great. Thanks. All right.

34:32Thank you guys. Thanks so much. Thanks, Mark. Thank Ron. We'll see you next time on big technology podcast.

34:41you

From the publisher

Mark Gurman is the chief correspondent at Bloomberg covering Apple. He joins Ranjan Roy and Alex Kantrowitz for a special episode focused entirely on Apple's Vision Pro announcement. We cover: 1) The Vision Pros trajectory over the next five years 2) Whether it will be the future of the computer vs. a complementary media device 3) What the device's impact on society will be 4) Why Tim Cook didn't wear the device at the event 5) Apple vs. Meta 6) The $3,499 price.

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