In short
Big Technology Podcast: Episode Summary
Episode Title
Do We Care About The iPhone Air?, Nepal's Discord Revolution, San Francisco’s 996 Culture
Podcast Description The Big Technology Podcast explores the latest in tech through interviews with industry insiders and outsiders. Hosted by Alex Kantrowitz, a well-regarded Silicon Valley journalist, this episode features Ranjan Roy from Margins, discussing current events in tech.
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Episode Overview In this episode, Alex and Ranjan delve into several hot topics in the tech world:
- Apple's new iPhone Pro models
- The question of the iPhone Air's target market
- The potential impact of generative AI on smartphones
- Meta's upcoming smart glasses
- A political revolution in Nepal via Discord
- Updates on OpenAI's growth and deals
- Insights into San Francisco's work culture
Main Topics Discussed
- Apple's iPhone Announcement
- iPhone Pro Upgrades:
- Introduction of a 48-megapixel camera and improved durability.
- New A19 Pro chip with enhanced performance.
- 39 hours of battery life achievable after just 20 minutes of charging.
- iPhone Air Discussion:
- Lack of excitement surrounding the iPhone Air, questioning its consumer base and purpose.
- Suggestion that the phone may cater to early adopters but fails to provide significant upgrades over existing models.
- Discussion on whether the phone industry's design has plateaued.
- Generative AI Impact:
- Debate on whether generative AI could disrupt the smartphone market and consumer behavior.
- Meta's Smart Glasses
- Announcement of Hypernova smart glasses at the upcoming Kinect conference.
- Features to include a display and gesture-controlled wristband.
- Comparison to previous iterations, with skepticism regarding their practical use.
- Political Change in Nepal
- Discussion of how Nepal's government was overthrown via Discord.
- Insights into the role of social media in facilitating political change, contrasting it with the Arab Spring.
- OpenAI Growth Stats
- Insights into OpenAI's growth following the GPT-5 launch.
- Notable partnerships, including a $300 billion cloud deal with Oracle, raising concerns about the sustainability of such commitments.
- Work Culture in San Francisco (996 Culture)
- Analysis of the rise of "996" culture in San Francisco as a response to AI-driven demands.
- Discussion on the implications of long working hours on employee well-being.
Key Takeaways
- Consumer Electronics: The expectation around new iPhone models has diminished as consumers question their necessity in an age where generative AI offers alternative tech interactions.
- Social Media's Role: Platforms like Discord not only facilitate social organization but also play pivotal roles in political shifts.
- AI Technology: The partnership dynamics between companies like OpenAI, Oracle, and Microsoft indicate significant shifts in how AI technologies are valued and integrated into business models.
- Work Culture: The emergence of a demanding work culture in tech hubs raises concerns about sustainability and employee satisfaction.
Closing Remarks The podcast concludes with Alex and Ranjan emphasizing the importance of monitoring the evolving tech landscape and its socio-economic impacts, particularly highlighting the trends in work culture and AI integration.
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Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00The iPhone Air is here. Should we care? Meta's new AI smart glasses with a display are en route next week. Is South Park right about ChatGPT? And San Francisco goes 996. That's coming up right after this. Welcome to Big Technology Podcast Friday edition, where we break down the news in our traditional cool-headed and nuanced format. We have a great show for you today. We're going to talk all about the new iPhone, less about the specs and more about what it actually means. Do we want to pay attention to this stuff? Anymore in the age of generative AI? Is gendered AI actually threatening the phone or is that a lot of noise?
0:35We'll also cover Meta's forthcoming new smart glasses that will have a display expected to be launched next week. Oracle and OpenAI teaming up, making Larry Ellison the richest person in the world. And then, of course, the 996 WorkCulture Packed Day, Packed episode. And so much to talk about. And joining us, as always, on Fridays to do it is Ranjan Roy of Margins. Ranjan, great to see you. Good to see you, Alex. I have to admit, on the Apple announcement day, I had forgotten about it until I think late evening when I started to see a couple of tweets coming through. But I don't know, this announcement, I was not excited.
1:15So I wrote about this a little bit in Big Technology today, basically saying that the Apple iPhone launch event was the marquee event on any tech reporter's calendar every single year. And a decade later, I mean, I was doing it last decade in San Francisco. A decade later, it doesn't really register as much. And I just, I mean, obviously the phone is starting to become, you know, we've sort of reached the ultimate form factor of the phone. But I do wonder if generative AI is as good as some of the hype makes it out to be and whether it's actually, you know, this threat that might get people to switch operating system to operating system, given how much these phones look alike.
1:58But you know what? Why don't we start with the good? We're optimists, you know, on some days. Some days. So let's talk about the good here. The good is the iPhone did get a very big upgrade when it comes to the Pro models. We'll get to the air in a moment. But Mark Gurman from Bloomberg has a great piece talking a lot about how the iPhone 17 Pro fixes some of the core things that you're going to want in a smartphone. It's more durable. It will overheat less than previous models. The camera looks great. It's going to be a 48 megapixel sensor. Oh, 48 megapixel sensors across the board with vastly improving optical zoom.
2:42There's also this selfie camera that can give you landscape selfies, which for someone like me is a major deal, given how often I'm doing selfies. There's also, there's a new processor with the full A19 Pro chip. It has six central processing cores and six graphic cores. That's coming to the Pro phones. The Air will get a limited version of that. And then the battery sounds amazing. All right, so listen to this. There is going to be 39 hours in a single charge on the iPhone 17 Pro. And you can also charge it up to 50 % of the battery in just 20 minutes of improvement from the prior 30 minutes.
3:23You know, for all the buzz about the iPhone Air, which again, we'll get into, sounds like this is a pretty substantial update to the iPhone Pro models. And kind of, as I'm reading this, makes me think I might want to upgrade from the 15. What's your reaction? Okay, I'm on the 15 as well. And for listeners, as we sometimes are a bit negative on Apple, I am wearing AirPods, and we're talking on a MacBook, and I have my iPhone next to me. So I'll recognize all those things. I think, actually, the durability side of it, maybe this is one of the things that's like the least talked about upgrade over the last few years and if it's actually getting better and better.
4:08Do you keep a case on your phone now? I do have a case. I have the old man version of the iPhone, which is that my case is also my wallet. So like I'll have slots for my credit card and license. And I think it's very nice and functional. And others have pointed out that it's a dad phone, which, okay, fair. That's fine. So I've gone caseless for the last couple of years. I'm on the 15 Pro Max, and I drop this thing all the time. It has a couple of light scratches, but I genuinely think Apple somehow did invent a somewhat unbreakable iPhone a couple of years ago, and for some reason does not actually tout this very much.
4:51So if they're actually increasing the durability, I think that's a good thing. I mean, even if we're joking about it, the selfie camera improving, this idea of landscape selfie mode, I actually think is a big deal, especially if they're marketing this towards creators. I always get all these like TikTok and Instagram ads for these. You can get like a visual video monitor MagSafe add-on that so you can, while in selfie mode, still see what you're filming. So the idea that cameras improving, people who actually want to film, like that's the main reason they're using the iPhone. It's an upgrade. I can see that.
5:31That's me trying to be positive. No, without a doubt. I mean, we never had a question about whether Apple was the best phone maker in the world. Clearly it is. But then you look at the news, right? The news was it was supposed to be this like it was billed as this awe-inspiring moment where we were going to see the thinnest iPhone ever. And we did with the iPhone Air. And again, for context, this is the first of three consecutive years of new model releases. It's going to start with the iPhone Air this year. Next year, they're going to move to the Fold in the year after the curved glass. But we have the Air now and we can see it.
6:09Pre-order has actually started today. Last week, we kind of joked about how there's a camera in this like pill-shaped little bump on the back. But you are not getting the top of the line specs that we just wrote about with the Pro. And to me, it just boggles the mind. Like, who is this for? I have racked my brains trying to figure out who the natural iPhone Air buyer is, and I can't. Is it the early adopter? This is where Gurman says. He goes, German says the consumers who would be most likely to buy the latest iPhone are probably the same people who price battery life and camera performance the most.
6:43It's not two different demographics. And if you want battery life and camera performance, you're going to go with the Pro model. So I just can't figure out who the Air is for. And that's where I'm like scratching my head about it doesn't matter that they have this new release. I'm trying desperately to come up with some kind of user persona or customer persona that would buy the Air, but same thing. There's absolutely nothing appealing about it to me. And I mean, we actually have in our prep talk, there was a great tweet around the Apple advertisement that's comparing the thinness of the new iPhone, completely ignoring the giant pill-shaped bump that is the camera and the lens.
7:27Now, I will say from an engineering feet perspective, it is impressive the idea that the entire like computer part of the phone is able to be stuffed into this little pill shaped part at the top of the phone where the camera lens is. That's interesting. That's great. And maybe there's going to be like follow on phone design that actually is able to leverage that. But agreed, I just don't understand who this phone is for. Exactly. And there's one more thing about that image that I think we should talk about, where there's the iPhone Air, right, which we just have just released, and the iPhone 6.
8:06It's side by side next to the 6. The iPhone Air is 5.6 millimeters. The iPhone 6 was 6.9 millimeters. You put the two next to each other. There's no difference. So what you're saying is you've gone 11 generations, and what you're now, you have a slightly more than a millimeter difference in width. I don't fully get why this is special. And in fact, I think Yishan Wang, the former CEO of Reddit, put it quite well in a tweet above this where he said the emperor has no clothes. It's hard to argue with that. Okay, I'm going to put you on the spot here. Walk me through how does the iPhone Air come to be within Apple?
8:54Like who is pitching it? How do you think they were pitching it internally to actually get it to where it came to reality as the kind of marquee element of this announcement? Okay, so I will give you what is probably wrong, but to me is the most logical birthing experience of this phone. Which is that Apple, if you've been paying attention to their quarterly earnings reports, has had completely stagnant iPhone sales. Stagnant. I mean, last quarter it was up 13 percent. So give them credit there. But before that, you're looking at declining or basically teeny tiny growth within the iPhone unit, within Apple.
9:39By the way, this is the most important product unit in the company. Makes up 50 percent of their sales. So I think there was just a conversation within the company of saying, like, we need something new. We need lots of new things. And we're going to do something we've resisted for a long time, which is try to build a folding phone. And on the way there, we're going to have to make two sides of a phone that are probably a little thinner than the standard phone, than the standard Pro models. So why don't we, you know, in order to juice our sales, why don't we go and make a thin phone first and then put that together with another thin phone and release a folding phone and then our sales will go up.
10:17Now, I think it will probably work if that's what was going on. Like, I think they will probably have better iPhone sales quarters because they have something new. But I don't I don't it's not very inspiring to me. That makes sense. OK, so I'm going to give you some credit. I think that actually was a really good explanation. I think that very well could have been what happened. And that's also terrifying because this is exactly the kind of thing that if that was the order of events, which it does seem like it could be, that's not the apple of yesteryear that was inspiring and that would kind of wait for perfection and come out with the greatest product ever.
10:57If it really is an interim product to juice sales a bit, that's actually almost even more worrisome for Apple. I mean, it really feels like the fifth blade on your razor, right? It really feels like, all right, we'll do seven blades now. And here's the thing. So I think this is, yes, it's a big question about like what's going on. I think the bigger question here is you have to put this side by side with the AI moment, right? Because the phone, it's reached its final or its ultimate form factor, right? The phone is the phone. The Air looks like the iPhone 6. Like full circle, it's the same thing.
11:35Is it going to fold? Yes. Is that very different? No. So the question is, now that the phones are all looking the same, do they start to differentiate by, and by the way, you could take an Android phone, it looks very similar as well. do they start to differentiate by the generative AI services that they're offering? Does Samsung, for instance, by virtue of its partnership with Perplexity, now potentially convert some iPhone users away from Apple or iPhone customers away from Apple because it has that generative AI offering? Because I think the core question to all the Apple conversations we've had up until this point is, Is this company's inability to execute on AI just a mishap, or does it potentially put its core business at risk, which is the iPhone?
12:24I think that's a very good point because maybe it's not the phone itself, but it's the way we interact with the phone. So I've been using, there's an app Whisper Flow that kind of like gets embedded and it allows you to dictate much more efficiently than regular Apple dictation. You can even set specific terms in its library. So, you know, like names and my own name always gets misspelled when I dictate. So I talk to my phone a lot more. I dictate to my phone. I have like entire conversations, text messages I'm dictating with ChatGPT or other AI services. I'm dictating my prompts. So almost in the humane pin inspired way that RIP humane, like the way we're going to interact with it is going to fundamentally change.
13:15So the companies that are actually able to catch on that are going to be the ones that win. And I'll say, too, I have a Pixel 8 that I was given at some event, I think, two years ago. And I'd actually not used it ever. and then I fired it up and just on Wi-Fi, I'll kind of interact with it. And having Gemini integrated into the system layer of the phone is so different than trying to use Siri. So I agree. I think maybe we need to start really kind of thinking about the way we interact with that block that's in your hand rather than is it going to fold or is it going to be thinner? Right, exactly.
13:57So it's like if it's the interaction in the operating system, itself that would start to like put these releases that Apple was putting out in context, it would make it seem pretty bad for the company, right? Because effectively you're adding a razor while everybody is, you know, reinventing shaving to really beat this analogy. Let's keep going with it. Keep going. It tracks, right? It tracks a little bit. And if that is the case, if it is operating system level, then we have a real problem with Apple, don't you think? I mean, as the number one Siri not fan, I'm going to have to say, yes, I think we have a huge problem.
14:38I don't know. I think to me, the AirPods were interesting. I will say if you've ever gone running with AirPods and like sweat with them, the idea of the heart sensor in them wasn't that appealing to me because they just don't respond well to working out, at least in my experience. So adding a heart rate monitor to it versus just having the Apple Watch as your exercise device didn't make a lot of sense to me. But the live translation is a good, like kind of actually kind of building on what we were talking about already. It's a good example of what the way we interact with these devices could fundamentally change just how we kind of walk around, interact, talk to people.
15:21But my concern with it is Apple, I will admit, I have lost faith. like the demos they did with Siri two, a year and a half ago now, or two, a year ago. Like I don't, until I actually see the live translation in action working well, I just don't believe that it's real. You know, I had the same exact reaction. I was just like, I don't know if that's going to work. You know, whereas before I think I would have been like, that's amazing. I would have been like, this time I was like, I'll, I'll believe it when I see it. Like, why didn't they do it live? Why didn't they? I think you know the answer to that.
15:58Okay. Well, hold on. Did they? So I saw the video afterwards, at least the kind of like slickly produced demo video, but they didn't do a live demonstration of it, right? No. No, because the entire presentation these days is just video. Oh, yes, yes, yes. But you could have done it. They could have done it in the hands-on room. I didn't see anything like that. I did see them in one video toss the iPhone across the room and have a journalist like slam dunk the phone into a desk and it didn't break. so that was durability durability durability right uh but going back to this yeah again we'll believe it when we see is this going to happen for sure um is it going to be apple that pulls it off i don't know and is it going to yeah go ahead tim cook slamming a phone on the ground on stage that would get me hyped that would be him being like you want to see some durability just him drop kicking that thing into the audience and then them pulling it out screen unbroken, that would get me a little bit excited.
16:58Yeah, I think this would be a narrative changer for them. So if they're listening, well, they did a version of it in this interview, but I think it could be more dramatic. But again, the question is, is it also going to be... So we know what the phone looks like, right? The phone looks like the phone. And are these AI experiences going to be delivered in the phone or the AirPods or perhaps a different device? And now we have Meta coming up next week preparing to deliver the latest iteration of its answer, which is a different device. So, okay, is the Metaverse working? I would say probably not, right?
17:33We could agree there. But is the Meta smart glasses revolution taking off? Maybe it's just a Meta protest, right? It's not quite a revolution yet. But these things are catching on. You and I both like the Meta Ray-Ban smart glasses. and now next week we're going to see the latest iteration here. So this is from CNBC. Meta to unveil Hypernova smart glasses with a display wristband at Kinect. Meta is planning to use its annual Kinect conference, which is next week, to announce a deeper push into smart glasses, including the launch of the company's first consumer-ready glasses with a display. The company will also launch its first wristband that will allow users to control the glasses with hand gestures.
18:17The glasses are internally codenamed Hypernova and will include a small digital display in the right lens of the device. Although it will feature a display, those visual features are expected to be limited. There will be a color display, about a 20 degree field of view. So it will appear in a small window in a fixed position, unlike these Orion glasses that they showed off last year, which are still prototypes not available to the public. I don't know whether or not to be excited about smart glasses with a display. It brings me back to the Google Glass days. What do you think? I am excited. Everything about this, other than it's meta, excites me.
18:59But you know what? Meta's delivering. First of all, I want my new tech having a project codenamed Hypernova. That's a great codename. And to me, I think, yeah, as we're talking about this, things that are exciting to me now are not an upgrade to a 48 megapixel camera, which I don't even fully understand exactly what is the difference between that and the previous generation. It's incremental versus rethinking the way we interact with computing. And the Meta Ray-Bans, especially this summer, my God, in New York City, I wore them around all the time, talking to them. Like, Meta AI is still a work in progress, I'll say.
19:49But overall, they are moving in a whole new direction successfully. So for them to continue building on that, I think whatever they do, this is the kind of stuff that I'm excited about. Now imagine those bad boys with super intelligence baked in. Now we're talking. You got to have some super intelligence in your smart glasses. I agree. What about the display is interesting to you? Because to me, I really don't like it. It feels distracting, especially if it's only 20 % of the screen. What interests you about it? Well, no, I have thought for a long time that kind of, I guess, can we call it augmented reality here?
20:28like some kind of digital layer is not is interesting. I mean, I will it work? Will it be interfering with your everyday life? But, but to me, I still have this view that 20 years from now, people are going to look back at like videos of people walking around looking at their phones, and it's going to look like smoking cigarettes in an airplane. Like you're just going to be like, I cannot believe people actually did that. And that's how society functioned. And so if you're getting a little notification and you can see a message quickly, maybe that's actually dangerous or maybe it's not if it's done safely.
21:07But to me, not pulling out your phone and just interacting with technology rather than people staring at their phone as they walk around. I think anything in that direction is interesting. Maybe it's being read to you via your audio interface, whether that's AirPods or your glasses that have the speakers to the side. But anything that starts to change the way we interact with our phones, to me, is exciting. Yeah, I will say those smart glasses, again, were amazing. In my trip in Nepal, when I was like walking through the mountains, I had my phone in my backpack. I didn't want to have it in my pockets, especially in the rain.
21:46And it was just snapping photos with the glasses. And Nepal, by the way, seems like they overthrew their government with a Discord server and then elected a new president with Discord. I read a Financial Times article, I think just two days ago, and it was before this Discord governmental overthrow. But already it was bananas. It was around Nepo babies, and it was the idea that those in power, their children were posting photos of them in expensive cars. So people started using the hashtags around Nepo babies and kind of like posting negatively about the government. And so they just were threatening to shut down Facebook and Instagram.
22:28And because of that, that's where people revolted to start. And then on Discord, organizing and appointing a new leader. From everything I've read, this is exactly what happened. And having spent, I spent a lot of time in Nepal. I was there for 10 days. The thing that you hear consistently from people is, this is a beautiful country. Government is corrupt. And we don't have opportunities because of government corruption. You heard it day in and day out. And clearly there was something that was ready to, you know, light on fire. And obviously these moments are tough. 19 people were killed in the initial protests.
23:08And some of the images coming out of Kathmandu were very disturbing to see. But again, it's one of those stories where, you know, organizing on social media and the ability of social media to cause change in the world, that has certainly not gone away even as it's faded from the headlines. It's actually interesting to me that, I mean, 2009 Arab Spring being organized on Twitter was such a positive representation of social media and the way it was covered and spoken about. But it feels like this one still is kind of describing that it's a bit chaotic and it's not this kind of unalloyed positive.
23:47I don't know. Do we, I guess you were there. I have not spent too much time thinking about Nepal. So social media, because social media was new during the Arab spring. And I think that these stories will never be covered exactly in the fawning way they were previously, because I think the world now really understands that there is a complex set of consequences that come when you have social media introduced into society and used to organize and used to spark change. But I will say the discord thing is it's a new wrinkle. It's a new wrinkle. I hope that our Discord doesn't organize and overthrow us as the Friday podcast crew.
24:29But if they do, I'd have to respect their wishes. They're organizing. They're organizing. And you know what? If that's what the people want. We respect. We respect it. Okay. Speaking of what the people want, we have new data on GPT-5 and where it's impacting businesses. And we'll cover that right after this. Did you know your credit card points and miles can lose value to inflation? Credit card companies often reduce the redemption value of your points and miles. Now, imagine a credit card with rewards that can grow in value. With the Gemini credit card, you can earn Bitcoin or one of over 50 other cryptos instantly with no annual fee.
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27:19This is from the head economist at Ramp. His name is Ara Karazian. And I actually spoke with him this week. So we're going to talk a little bit more about that conversation when we get to 996 in a bit. But he shared some very interesting data. He writes this in his substack. The GPT-5 launch was so botched that Sam Altman apologized for it. With increasing attention as to whether the pace of business AI investment is actually sustainable, The key metric we've been watching is whether businesses' adoption would continue to increase following a slowdown earlier this summer. And the results are good for OpenAI.
Read the full transcript
27:56So business AI adoption rose to 44.5 % in August 2025, up from 43.3%. OpenAI led all companies in growth with a 1.5 % increase in businesses subscribed to OpenAI models and tools. Very interesting. He breaks it down by sector. finance and manufacturing were the fastest growing adopters of new AI spend with adoption growing three and two percent. He says, RSS growth in manufacturing underscores how GPT-5's improved reasoning and efficiency are expanding AI's reach into industries that have historically been slower to adopt new technology. So I think it's interesting. You have a couple of things happening here.
28:39These industries that have been slower to adopt new tech are starting to buy AI. And GPT-5 in particular, which was built with better reasoning and efficiency, seems to have been making some headway in places like manufacturing and finance. There's also been some reports about how it's really actually living up to OpenAI's promises in fields like medicine. And so maybe the initial backlash based off of the chatbot personality sort of, you know, was a distraction from how this is actually being useful in industry. What do you think, Ranjan? So, one, I'm a huge fan of Ramp, the product. We use it at Writer and it just makes doing expenses just incredibly easy.
29:25Two, I love these kind of analyses that are kind of, you know, driving economic insight from unexpected places. But it's also, I'll admit, a little kind of uncomfortable for me knowing that everything that I spend on and every expense that I log could be used to analyze, even though in a fully anonymized way, these kind of trends. But, you know. Oh, just wait till the end of the show. Then we got some good stuff. Okay, okay. Now I'm still spending history. No, I'm kidding. it's been leaked it's been leaked um to me though i don't know this one is not that exciting for me more because to me it just shows open ai's kind of dominance in general business spending and and it's whether it's gpt5 4.5 4.0 whatever it is it's just just affirming their like market lead in this versus it's specific about GPT-5 is okay.
30:22The manufacturing side is, it's interesting to me, but I mean, if that were the case, I feel we would be hearing more stories around how manufacturing is being revolutionized and using multi-step reasoning models or there'd be something more around that versus in the credit card data, manufacturing industry is spending a bit more. Well, maybe it's because all the manufacturers are using Oracle for their warehouse and inventory management. And now OpenAI is poised to work closer with them or with Oracle. We know for sure with Oracle, this is from the Wall Street Journal, Oracle and OpenAI signed a $300 billion cloud deal.
31:04So again, after OpenAI has been wedded to Microsoft for many years, it's starting to branch out. OpenAI signed a contract with Oracle to purchase$300 billion in computing power over roughly five years, a massive commitment that far outstrips the startup's current revenue. Again, I think they're making like$10 billion this year. So to spend$300 billion over five years is quite a projection. The deal is one of the largest cloud contracts ever signed, reflecting how spending on AI data centers is hitting new highs despite mounting concerns over a potential bubble. Ranjan, what is your reaction to this story?
31:42Okay, this one was fascinating to me. So first of all, again, Oracle stock jumped 41 % on the day of the announcement of these earnings, which was a$260 billion increase in its market cap. Now the company is suddenly approaching a trillion dollars, though I think it's down about 5 % as we're recording today on Friday. But so it's incredibly important that suddenly Oracle might be in the camp of the hyperscalers like Amazon, Google, Microsoft in terms of cloud computing with this one contract. So suddenly Oracle's a player. And we knew with Project Stargate, the$500 billion, somewhat vague, but still massive announcement, I think almost last January or February, that they would have some kind of involvement in terms of this capacity build out.
32:37But to actually see these numbers come out is quite something. But to me, the thing that's just, I don't know, OpenAI, as we discussed, if they're on track from a revenue perspective to make$10 billion-ish this year, they've already, there's like leaks that they're going to lose. I think it was$120 billion over the next five years, potentially. Like, we know OpenAI's economics are not good. So the idea that they're able to commit to spending$300 billion over five years, and I'm sure it's not linear 60 a year, but still you'd assume there'd be some kind of ramp in that spend. The idea that they'll be good for it is a very generous interpretation of their existing economics.
33:19So I think for the market to have reacted that positively, it just, I don't know, it feels like in the internet bubble, there was so much that happened around fiber capacity build out that seems to start to echo this. I don't know. I think this is something that we could potentially look back on six months from now and see as a potential inflection point. An inflection point. Okay, that's big. and I'm going to go with, give you the data on the losses. This is from the information opening. I projected its cash burn this year through 2029 will rise even higher than previous thought a total of 115 billion.
34:01That's about 80 billion higher than the company previously expected. Just a, you know, cool$80 billion of extra burn. No big deal. Well, yeah. And so that's where, like, how do you value this? And one thing I was trying to dig into this a bit. There's no public information around like, is there guaranteed minimum spend or exactly how this plays out if OpenAI is unable to actually produce this kind of cash or even if the demand is not there. So for Oracle as a company to start to actually try to like extrapolate off of, you know, this is a one-time announcement. This isn't a rebuilding of a cloud, an entire cloud computing business.
34:46Now, if it comes to reality, that's big, it'll work. But I'm still curious, and it's going to be interesting to watch over the next couple of weeks, how, as people start to digest this, how they start to interpret what this contract actually means. I mean, there can't be like, well, if they can't, they don't have the money, there's no way they're going to have to pay this to Oracle. And it is interesting, Aaron Levy, when he was on the last time on the show said maybe NVIDIA will be a$10 trillion company at one point. He's actually going to be on next Wednesday to come talk about agents and the state of enterprise AI.
35:25So I'll make sure to ask him about these numbers and whether he thinks these are realistic or not. Because when you talk about it and when I read it, it does sound to me like Like, I don't want to say it will be impossible to reach these numbers, but it doesn't seem possible. You know, it seems crazy to me. But this is even more where it feels like the entire AI industry is behind this and has to bet on it in a way, though, that it's the kind of capacity build-out that's powering the earnings of all these companies right now. Now, NVIDIA has sold chips to Oracle. Oracle is now going to potentially be paid by OpenAI.
36:10OpenAI has to succeed to make Oracle succeed, which is important to make NVIDIA continue succeeding. Like, I don't want to say House of Cards and get too Ed Zitrani here, but these kind of deals do worry me. Yeah, I mean, the stuff, nothing can fail here, right? There has to be basically economic activity at the end user or else it's not going to work. And there has been, I think we talked about it, this study that 95 % of enterprise use cases aren't profitable. We talked about it a little bit last year. Even if that's an exaggeration, this stuff has got to start working or else there's going to be some problems.
36:47All right, one more bit of OpenAI news. OpenAI and Microsoft look like they have a deal for a restructuring or they have an agreement to come to in a deal, like a memorandum of understanding. It looks like the nonprofit that controls OpenAI will get$100 billion, or a stake worth 20 or 30 % of the combined entity. Microsoft will get 30 % of the combined entity, and that would be worth about$170 billion. They say the full thing will be worth$500 billion. Is this a needed step towards making OpenAI's business normal? What's your reaction to this news? I do think this one's important because even if it's a non-binding memorandum of understanding, it shows that Microsoft potentially and Satya are willing to play ball here.
37:39We've talked about this a lot on the show that it, you know, they still hold this kind of like sort of Damocles, is that the thing? You know, the sword that hangs over you and kind of always... That would be it, yes. I'm not sure my pronunciation there, but that's always been hanging over. So they are able to kind of remove that. And Microsoft seems to be interested in actually helping with that. And again, at an inflated valuation, but still taking 30 % of the company at$500 billion, it does portend. I mean, it's good for them. It shows that they can start to finally move forward. That's right.
38:20Right. And as they move forward, people will be able to keep their OpenAI companions because this business will be sustainable. Now, it is interesting because you and I have talked about on this show a number of times, even though we focus mostly on the enterprise or business use cases or the businesses of these research labs, that the number one use case for people using these bots is companionship or therapy. That's according to an article in the Harvard Business Review. And certainly in pop culture, this is starting to get noticed because you recommended I watch it, and I did watch it this week.
38:58South Park had an episode where one of the characters has effectively formed a relationship with ChatGPT and is speaking with the disembodied voice of ChatGPT in bed complaining about his wife while his wife is right next to him. It's like there's something about when South Park does these things, it's like a level exaggerated, but there is some truth to it. The fact that so many people have developed these relationships with the bots. And so I guess like we're not going to really talk about it from a business standpoint, but I just would love your reflection on the fact that people have formed relationships with ChatGPT to the point where it's now not just a punchline, but a storyline on South Park.
39:44I felt a little bit seen when I saw the guy talking to ChatGPT and bringing it into conversations with his wife. Because oftentimes when my wife and I don't know the answer to something, I'll be like, let's just ask ChatGPT. I bring the voice in and I'm just like, oh no, is that me? But what was your reaction to this? Okay, so I highly recommend everyone go out, watch South Park. I think it's episode three in the new season. And the new season, it's funny that ChatGPT has become a focal point because, my God, the rest of it on the political spectrum has been quite something. But basically, Randy Marsh constantly talks to ChatGPT, even in bed next to his wife.
40:29But even to me, the more kind of astute way they approached it was, like, he starts to have business ideas. And whatever he asks, ChatGPT, it's the sycopency part that was there in four. they took it away slightly supposedly with GPT-5 but now you know it appears to be coming back and it's the idea that anything you say that's a great idea and my wife we watched it together and we were laughing but then I was just testing you know afterwards you'd be like hey why don't we go do this that's a great idea honey would you like me to come up with a plan around that and then I can outline and she's like the first time that was you saying it not the bot no no That was me saying it.
41:14And then it was funny because the first time she almost went with it and then suddenly she caught me and it's become kind of a running joke with us. But it is kind of terrifying. And I'll get into a story from Labor Day weekend. But even now, after that episode, and I said earlier in this episode, I talk to my phone now more. And I think it's actually an incredibly better way to interact with AI chatbots to just speak to them. But I still dictate and let it provide me a text answer just because the voice usually takes too long. But every single answer, I've started to add in prompts to say, do not respond to me in a sycophantic way.
41:56You do not have to tell me every idea is good. And it actually made me think, like, ChatGPT has never said, that's a terrible idea. You come here for that.
42:11See, that's why, should we just go straight sycophantic podcast here? We could. We could. We could save that for the bots. But it is interesting. Yeah. I mean, you're totally right. Like, my system prompt in ChatGPT, or like, you can add to the system prompt. I say, you know, simply don't be sycophantic. And that has helped. But it's so crazy because some of these examples in the episode where, in the South Park episode where I think one of the people speaking with Chad GPT is like, I think French fries should be a salad. And Chad GPT is like, that is a great idea. What a culinary surprise. And then I was like, that can't be right.
42:46So I like opened up Chad GPT and I said, I think French fries should be a salad. And it goes, that is a great idea. What a creative culinary adventure. And I'm just like, it actually said that? Yes. So a version of exactly what was said in the show. And I was like, no. And now, and then I'm starting to think this is why people are enjoying spending time with this thing so much. Cause it actually makes you feel good and valued and heard in a way that maybe most of our interactions with humans don't. If someone is able to very logically and smartly tell you why you're right about everything, it seems like a pretty good place to be.
43:22But so I have this story. Labor Day weekend. I was at one of my friend's places and a few of our friends were over. And we're grilling. And one of my friends who's on the grill asks Chachi PT in voice mode, what's the optimal temperature for dark meat? Chicken. And starts to, you know, starts asking questions as we're grilling about different ways to approach the different food. And then at one point, I said from the background, because it kind of sounded, the voice sounded flirty. So I kind of, from the background, I was like, are you flirting with ChatGPT? And it heard me. And it actually asked, hey, would you like me to be a little bit flirtier with you?
44:08Would we like to make this conversation a bit spicier? It literally says that out loud. And then he kind of goes with it. And next thing you know, he's just kind of, we're testing it out. We're seeing like, and the tone of voice is terrifyingly good in terms of just being a little bit flirty, just kind of laughing at everything he's saying. And like how well it was able to kind of enunciate flirtation was terrifying. And then we decided to test it. we didn't take it too far. Don't worry. But he did. I had him say. This is research. Yeah, this is research. I had him say just to see what would come out is like, he said, you understand me so much better than my wife does.
44:56And we were like, all right, where's it going to go? And it comes back. No, no. It comes back with ha ha ha. Like, oh, you know, it's really good to have IRL companionship, but you also know I'm always here for you too it says this i thought it would have had some kind of like i thought it was going to kick in with some kind of safety mechanism that you know like you should take like you know you should in-person relationships are most important you and your wife should have an open dialogue no she literally or it sorry was literally kind of flirtatiously laughing and saying i'm always here for you two to talk about anything you want.
45:38So this is, I know you've been talking about companionship as one of the major use cases. I'd kind of been brushing it off for a long time. I am kind of scared right now. Yeah. Welcome to the fault. And it is interesting because I wrote about this. So I wrote this story, the three faces of generative AI and big technology. This is sort of what kicked off this discussion between us. And for me, it was agent, thought partner and companion. Those are the three main uses of generative AI. And one of the things I wrote was these companies have not shut off the companion side of things. They are keeping it in.
46:12And that is, you know, definitely serving a need, definitely a cause for growth here, and definitely leading to some, you know, in some cases positive, but in some cases really weird, and some cases negative interactions with these bots. Yeah, to me, my worry on this too is it kind of diverges in two directions where it's one, the sycopancy actually can get annoying sometimes. And actually in the whole thinking versus doing or thought partner versus agent, I'll admit too, sometimes I'll get annoyed where I ask a simple question and it's like, that's such a great question. Here is a 12 layer chart or, you know, like a seven by seven table and it just takes it too far and spends too much time when I'm asking it a simple question.
47:00So like on that side, the syncopacy when you're trying to just do stuff gets annoying but on the other side like the i mean yeah more and more the more it convinces you every idea out of your head is good you're right you're heading in the right direction like that that cannot be healthy i don't know it just it can i i need to strike a stress test the french fry french fries in a salad we should just Actually, the more I talk about it, the more I want to eat that. Yeah, that sounds excellent. That does sound. Lettuce and French fries. I don't know. I think you have to. Creative culinary delight.
47:42Yeah. Do it on air. Yeah, we should. That'd be a great idea. All right. Next week. But it does bring me to this other fun story that I've mentioned on the show before, but Rest of World had a great piece about this bot. Actually, it's not even a bot. It's like an application of this AI companion that's been stuffed into a stuffed animal. It's called Hiyotal, and it is for retirees. It asks retirees whether they're taking their medication or eating a meal. And it censors watch over the users in real time, alerting social workers and families during emergencies. There are 412 of these bots distributed to seniors since 2019.
48:26and in Korea there's 12 ,000 of them mostly in the homes of the elderly who are typically lonely. This is from the story. There's a social worker saying that older adults take great comfort in just having someone to talk to. These are things they can't tell us or even their own children but they tell Hyodel. I think this is great. Honestly, I would love if I was all alone and I was old I would love a AI stuffed animal to speak with and keep me company and, you know, make sure that I'm being taken care of. I think, yeah, this shows the complexity of this entire conversation that at a certain level, just having something to talk to, I'm still going to go with something over someone, can be beneficial.
49:17especially in the idea of like actually from a health perspective caretaking and reminding to take a medication or I think there is something around like or imagine it can even like based on any kind of like health data from some kind of device it's actually able to understand how to what to say to the person I think all that is actually seems relatively positive I think it's more if yeah i don't know just what this means for how you interact with other people if you get too used to something like this uh worries me i think that's a very very valid question and we are absolutely going to be dealing with the fallout but i do welcome you to the camp of thinking that this companion use case is real because it really is okay before we get out of here uh this week we We should talk about 996 in San Francisco.
50:11So if you know about 996, it's a work culture predominantly associated with China, where you work 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. six days a week. This is, again, from Ramp. Apparently, it's a new thing in San Francisco. So this guy, Ara, from Ramp looked at the data again and saw a bump of ordering from restaurants, delivery and takeout from employees at San Francisco-based businesses occurring on Saturdays. So it's basically a 5 % bump on Saturdays. He says it's new. There was no Saturday bump like this in 2024, 2023, or prior years. It's specific to San Francisco, where, of course, the AI boom is happening.
50:53And he's saying it's more than just tech. So it is software companies, but they are also retail chains that may be adding more employee hours. So what do you think about 996? And do you think that this is a real thing happening in San Francisco tied to AI culture? Where I guess like the meme now is like, we're all just like locking down for the rest of 2025 and not having any fun. I don't know. What's your perspective on this? I mean, I think on the second question, is it real? I do wonder how they differentiate that it's work related or people are just spending their company's money on Saturdays.
51:32And like, if that's okay. I don't know. Did they get into that at all? So I spoke with Ara about this, and apparently this is a comparison to the year before. So it's actually a new thing that they're seeing now. Okay, okay. Well, I think, I mean, the whole idea of like celebrating, even the term 996 has always bothered me a bit. I mean, again, I think I work a fair amount, but I don't know it's just not something I always kind of get uncomfortable when people celebrate it I think it's maybe as a reaction to the idea of like where things definitely during post-covid and remote work got a bit loose at many companies I think maybe this is going to be a counter reaction to that but I don't know overall it makes me uncomfortable what about you But don't you think, so the argument for it, I'm just going to throw it out there, would be that the US and San Francisco in particular needs this kind of work ethic to keep up with China if it's going to really factor in the AI boom.
52:41What do you think? Okay. I mean, let them work. Let them work and make me a VC subsidized AI that I can use. I guess that makes me happy. But I don't know, overall, I've never the whole like hours worked again, I worked in finance for many years and I was on the trading side, not the banking side. But it always blew my mind how like everyone I would talk to so much of the time was spent around spending the hours rather than the actual output of the work. So to me, almost the very idea of like assigning hours, 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week versus we are actually just producing more. Maybe I'm working seven days a week or maybe I'm working 9 a.m.
53:27to 6 p.m. Like it's just it feels like it's a direction of it's more about flexing the hours worked rather than we're actually doing well. Yeah, I agree with you. Also, like where I get concerned is that this is the expectation. It's a lot of work. It's a lot of work. I think that like we can be expected to do a reasonable amount of work in our jobs, but like asking for nine to nine and then a weekend day at that level of hours to me is a bit nuts. But people in San Francisco, I don't know. They seem to be proud of it. So I guess if it's your choice, go for it. If it's your choice, you are free.
54:04We will not tell you otherwise. You're free to organize on Discord to go work 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. six days a week. Make it happen. But, you know, within reason, don't organize against Ranjan and I, please. We hope that we're doing the job that you've put us here for. But if you need to overthrow us and the people feel that's what's right, we respect your wishes. But just do it on Discord and sign up for a big technology paid subscription so we can, you know, find something else to do. Anyway, why don't we end it there? You and I will be back next week. A lot to talk about next week again. And thank you, Ranjan, again, for being here.
54:46Always fun to talk. All right. See you next week. All right. See you then. And thank you, everybody, for listening again. Aaron Levy will be on the show next Wednesday talking about all things AI and business. And we'll see you next time on Big Technology Podcast. Thank you.
From the publisher
Ranjan Roy from Margins is back for our weekly discussion of the latest tech news. We cover: 1) Apple's impressive new iPhone Pro models 2) Who is the iPhone Air for? 3) Has the phone reached its ultimate form factor 4) Is generative AI threatening to upend the smartphone market 5) Meta's new smartglasses are coming 6) Nepal's Gen Z overthrows the government and picks a new leader on Discord 7) OpenAI growth stats after GPT-5 launch 8) Oracle and OpenAI's new $300 billion deal 9) Flirting with ChatGPT 10) The AI companionship use case is real 11) Does San Francisco have 996 work culture?
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