How Can Paul Fast Track to FIRE by 45? ($1.6M Net Worth)

22:53On the other hand, it's like, man, it's 2.85. Like, when am I going to get a loan like that again?

22:59Mindy Jensen:Do you plan on moving? No. Then if I was living in this house with a 2.85 mortgage, I would keep it. I would maybe you've got about one hundred and ninety five thousand left on this mortgage. I might put money into a savings account, a high yield savings account, not the stock market, that equals the$194 ,000 just so you could pay it off if you decided I am just done with this mortgage. But with a$900 mortgage payment, I personally could take that$194 ,000. If I was living there, I actually would put it in the stock market because I feel that I can get a better return in the stock market, even if it goes down.

23:37Mindy Jensen:I believe in the long-term viability of the American economy. So that's what I would personally do. But I know that Scott would probably say otherwise. I think what's going to happen, and again, I get dinged for being too optimistic sometimes on this, but I do think that optimism has generally played out much better than the conservative case in many of the folks we've talked to over the years. Their income grows a little faster than they expected because they're spending their free time. You're spending your free time listening to bigger pockets and self-improving and otherwise upgrading your knowledge about personal finance.

24:10I think what's going to happen here most likely is your incomes are going to grow, both of you guys, a little faster than you projected over the next five years. I think you're going to reach your goals a little faster than you expected from your base case, probably very conservative financial planning model here. And I think you're going to end up in that position well north of$2.5 million, somewhere in that$2.5 to$3 million range with an ultra-conservative portfolio that does really well. I think that that's actually a likely outcome for you, Paul, over the next five years. I think you're going to start a business after that to some degree, some kind of self-employment or whatever, and you're going to find, huh, that's actually going quite well.

24:51And I think you're going to have the accumulation option to continue building your portfolio, and you're just going to want to eliminate your mortgage at that point as another box to check because you have the option to do so and it's going to be relatively immaterial. So that's why things are going to happen. You can come and laugh at me about how overly optimistic that was in five years in your situation, but I think that's what's going to happen. I think that from a planning perspective, no, don't pay off the mortgage. That's not part of your core plan. You don't need to. It's so low in this case at 2.85%.

25:19And the payment of$1 ,000 is so relatively small compared to your income and your portfolio's generation capability that I would leave it in place. It's not a good plan to make that a primary thing to pay off before you reach retirement. The other mortgages are literally two to three times the interest rate. So that would be my stance on this one.

25:38Mindy Jensen:Ultimately, I would say, ask your wife and see what she thinks. If she wants to pay it off, I'm going to go with happy wife, happy life. Yeah, I like that answer. Something Scott said made me think. He said, your entire net worth then is, well, not entire, but your rental portfolio is going to be dependent on the Sheboygan market. Does Sheboygan have a main employer? You know, one of the things, honestly, David Meyer was here and I talked to him about this too, him and Henry. I love the Sheboygan area because we have, we've got a lot of big employers and a lot of the industry that's here is private companies that kind of have ties to the area.

26:16You know, so I think of like one of the biggest employers here, Kohler Company. it's in Kohler, Wisconsin, where the family is and the town is named after them. We're the, you know, places. It's not going to up and leave. Or I think of, you know, we've got Rockline Industries. They do a lot of like private label things and that's a privately held company. We have Acuity, which is a huge insurance company. We've got Ballrath Company. We've got Sargento Cheese and Satori. And the manufacturing is really strong in this area, which is a really good job market. And then we also have a lot of things kind of unique to the area with Whistling Straits, right?

26:55That golf course has one of the courses that are in the top five for public golf courses. We've got Road America, we've got the lakefront, we've got, there's just a lot of things to do and a really strong job market. So yeah, I'm lucky that I live here, but I think a lot of the fundamentals for what are going to keep people here and have income growth over time are also here, which also supports the rental market. So it's not just, oh, shoot, this is where I started investing. So this is where I have to stay. I want to stay invested in this because I think it's going to be really strong long-term.

27:30I love that. And I think that you're so advanced, Paul. So I'm going to give you an advanced homework assignment on this, which is I would write a thesis, a two-page thesis, put it in Microsoft Word. And I always, if I'm thinking about a rental market, there are kind of three variables here. One is going to be supply, right? So everything you said is great about, is underlying demand. These are things, the reasons why you think the area is going to boom, but how many people are building properties in that area, right? This is what killed Austin, Texas investors in the last couple of years. Austin, Texas investors would have said the same thing you said about how great Austin is.

28:06And then they built 10%, They increased their housing stock by 10 % in a single year. And that crushed Austin, Texas sales values and rents. And so you can just kind of look at that. It's so easy to find that information. It's all permitted. You can find it with a simple Google search, maybe even pay like a few hundred bucks for a subscription or something like that. And you won't get your demand analysis, your subjective, but there and invalid demand and side analysis overwhelmed by something that you can easily prevent. I doubt you're going to have that problem in Sheboygan, right? I doubt you're going to be way overbuilt, but that's a good sanity check item.

28:43So I think you should do that and just review it once a year. If you see that the Sheboygan market's got, you know, 50 ,000 multifamily units and they're adding 5 ,000 in one year, okay, we're going to be a little more conservative with our projections for the next year or whatever. You're not going to see that, but that'll put your mind at ease. And this will professionalize the headliner behind your all in bet on Sheboygan real estate. Second is the demand thesis. That's great. All the great things you have there are perfect, but I would go in and look for, you know, some sort of professional opinion about what population growth is going to look like in Sheboygan or the, or whatever the MSA is, it's attached.

29:20I'm not really familiar with the Sheboygan market, but whatever, what is that county? Somebody has a projection about what that county is going to look like from a population growth standpoint over the next couple of years. And just kind of use that to sanity test what you're seeing with your eyes on there. You may disagree with some of them, but if you get two or three of those, that'll help you out. And then third, you got to have an opinion about interest rates. But in your case, that's very unimportant because you're going to be paying off these properties. So it's really more about the supply and demand dynamics.

29:47So I think you should have that opinion in there and be like, I'm going to be good even if interest rates go up a lot because that will have a dampening effect on price appreciation, but I'm going to pay these properties off and that should presumably give a tailwind to rents. But I think if you put a one to two page thesis together, you'll professionalize that and maybe catch a couple of blind spots because you'll have some hard numbers to back what you're saying there. How's that? Is that helpful? Yeah, no, I like that. You know, I love all that stuff. I just I've heard some Florida and Texas people saying very similar stuff to you three, four years ago.

30:18And that didn't turn out so well, not because people aren't moving to Florida and Texas. They certainly are. And there are certainly the great businesses there. It's just no metro, no area grows at 10 % in a year.

30:29Mindy Jensen:Yeah, that's true. Sheboygan is about an hour north of Milwaukee and it's right on the lake. So there's a lot of lakefront properties there. It's such a cute little town. I have a friend who lives there too. It's actually called the Malibu of the Midwest. People wouldn't think this, but we're big for surfing here. And then, yeah, like you said, it's right in between Green Bay. So going to Packer games, things like that. You've got the Bucks and the Brewers in Milwaukee. You're about an hour from Fond du Lac and Appleton and that area. So it's a good place to be. Awesome. Yeah. But that would be my last piece is just professionalize that portfolio.

31:05And I think it's a similar, very easy exercise of just, hey, you know, if things go reasonably well the next couple of years and I don't have one of those big gotchas in there, these properties are going to appreciate it 2-3 % a year, maybe a little more. And that's going to give you a portfolio balance. I'd have to drag that out, probably in the$1.8 to$2 million range by the time you have your stated goal, mostly in a paid off portfolio. You're also going to have assets in these other accounts. What does that portfolio look like? Are you comfortable with those being highly aggressively invested in stocks and just keeping that ride until retirement?

31:38Yeah, because the more and more that I read and do all the self-education, I mean, as funny as it sounds, it's not that complicated. it. Just keep it in the index funds and let it ride. And there's going to be volatility in there and that's fine, but that's part of what you get paid for, right? You don't get paid to just take the upslope and pull it out. But over the next 20, 30 years, I'm pretty confident that all that stuff is going to go up and I don't care what happens in between because I'm not drawing on it. Yeah. So that's great. And if you were going to draw on it, if you were saying, hey, I do actually need to draw on pieces of that portfolio, that might change what you just said there.

32:14You might need some sort of different portfolio. But if you're going to let it ride for a very long period of time, 25, 30 years, then that's perfect. I completely agree.

32:22Mindy Jensen:Scott, I have another wrinkle to throw in here. Since Paul said that he likes being a landlord, I wonder if it would be advantageous for him to keep an eye on the market for a smoking hot deal, not for a mediocre deal, but for a smoking hot deal that just pops up. And he's like, you know what, that would make a great addition to my portfolio. And yes, he might have to get a loan for it, but he could throw that money at paying down the loan. The Fed just reduced interest rates by a quarter point yesterday, woohoo, with no information because the government is currently still shut down as we record this on October 30th.

32:58Mindy Jensen:Hopefully by the time this episode airs, we will be back open, but whatever. Because you're so good at finding good deals and you know your market, you know your area, I might keep an eye out just on a great deal. And if it pops up, that's just another bunch of money that's going to come into your bank account that you can then throw at the other properties and try to pay down those mortgages or pay down this mortgage. And that's just more income for you when you are in retirement. Or you don't have to pay off all the mortgages because so much more income is coming in. Does that make sense? Like you're spending$100, and if you paid off all your mortgages, you'd be making$144, so you don't have to pay off all the mortgages in order to cover everything that you're spending right now.

33:45I've thought through that piece because honestly, I went and I was looking at a duplex the other day, even though I promised my wife we would not buy right now. She's used to that at this point. But that's where paying down the mortgages gets interesting because if I'm going to aggressively say, hey, every single week when I'm getting paid, that excess money is going to go towards those mortgages. Now, when this deal comes up, all that money is tied into the pay down of that mortgage, which is great because the instant that I pay it, my interest starts going down and what I've got to pay an interest.

34:18But now when that smoking hot deal comes, I still have a HELOC that I could draw from. And there's some places I could get money, but I don't have a huge cash position sitting on the sidelines to jump in and get a property. That changes things for me a little bit here. And this is why I bias so heavily towards cash, right? And I think cash is a drag in any financial model, right? It just says, hey, you're going to earn much less than you would be earning otherwise in these assets. But if you're at all entrepreneurial or opportunistic, then the return is incalculable, right? Like, for example, my cash position, my large cash position allows me to do many things that are very interesting in my life.

34:55Like, for example, my paid off properties, I have a huge deductible on all of the insurance policies. It's not possible on properties with a mortgage, but I can put literally a$20 ,000,$20 ,000,$30 ,000 deductible on my insurance policies, which brings them down to just maybe$1 ,000 or$2 ,000 on properties that have significant value in the hundreds of thousands or into a million dollar range. And that's a major cash flow advantage. Yes, whenever I do have to file an insurance claim, I will have to shell out a significant pile of cash in a deductible, but I've never filed an insurance claim. as a real estate investor.

35:29I don't know if you have, you know, I will eventually, but I can capitalize for that with my cash position. And what's the return on that? I don't know. That cash position also allows me to make opportunistic investments in a rental property or whatever. What's the return on that? I don't know. But it's not zero. It's not the zero that the cash is collecting in the bank account. There's some value to the more aggressive stance that allows me to take in many other parts of my financial portfolio. So if that's at all speaking to you, then maybe you can prioritize building up a cash position that would allow you that flexibility and peace of mind to be more aggressive in all these other positions.

36:03You can kind of think about that, hey, that's not going to model super well in my spreadsheet, but if I am going to be opportunistic, that's going to allow me these items here. In terms of your question about rental properties, you are one of the last people to use our old financial spreadsheet. So I'll send you this one if you have any interest in it. But I've built a new real estate schedule here for properties that's a little simpler to look at um it kind of condenses some of this information to give us a a simpler view here i do gotta add an interest rate now that i'm i'm thinking about it so this is a work in progress but i think there's a little factor here that i haven't been considering quite as much in rental property analysis which is how annoying is your portfolio on a property by property basis one being not annoying at all three being terrible and if you want you could out of four for this one just sucks my soul out of me and consumes a large amount of time and cash on an ongoing basis.

36:53And then there's a prospects component here. So, and these are subjective calls for you, but that may change the analysis here. And so if you do buy an opportunistic property, you also have the option to then sell one of your existing properties to not get into that overly complex or sprawling real estate portfolio in there. So you might consider doing some kind of very simplistic analysis where you just quantify how annoying your existing portfolio is. And if you have the opportunity to upgrade one of the properties over time, there will be transaction costs associated with that, but it might make your ultimate portfolio that much more enjoyable.

37:28Now, because of some of the stuff that we are doing, historically, if I look at kind of how we've lived in that cash position that we're talking about, I've never held on to a large cash position just because I haven't thought it's been optimal. but that$3 ,100, when you look at our budget, all that stuff is sitting in a high yield savings account building up until eventually it's going to get spent, right? Whether it's Christmas money or escrow for property taxes or any of those things. And that buffer has been nice from time to time. If stuff comes up to say, okay, maybe there's$10 ,000 in there that I could pull from really quickly because escrow is not due until the end of the year.

38:07And then I go in and replace it. And that's actually worked really good, similar to what you're talking about. But that's for like everyday expenses. Now, when you're talking about cash position that's laying around for down payments on rentals and stuff, you know, five to ten thousand ain't going to cut it for stuff like that. So maybe that is something that we should just increase just to give us a little buffer, because, you know, we talked about what our savings rate is. It's not going to take us very long to get to that spot. Now we can get right back on track with our goals. I don't have the hard data in front of me, but I would guess that peers with a similar net worth hold two to five percent of their position in cash.

38:43And you are in the low end of that. Nothing wrong with that. Your savings rate is so high. You can certainly do that. But that might be that might be one area that that would give you a little bit more power, flexibility or control given your goals in the next couple of years. And another benefit of the cash position building up might be you look up in two or three years instead of five and say, you know what? This cash position makes me feel really good about starting that self-employment component on this or stepping down a little bit if that opportunity at work comes up. So you can kind of have a hybrid approach to starting that business or self-employment activity that you had mentioned earlier on the call, maybe a little sooner.

39:16So I know I wouldn't be comfortable, you know, doing something self-employment if I didn't have a big cash position. That would be hard for me mentally. One of the things that I've thought about recently trying, and it's all, it's a mental thing or a psychology thing, but of taking potentially my wife's paycheck in the very near future and just say, we don't have it, right? Put it in a different checking account and live solely off of my paycheck. and ultimately at the end of the day, it's just going to be a little bit of numbers game with how do we pay the bills and all of those things, but starting to like get comfortable adjusting to what that would look like without that pay there.

39:53Cause if truly we live off, let's say my paycheck to do all living expenses, we know we're good there. We'll just take all of our money and put it towards investing and saving. So really net net, when you look at the numbers, it's not any different, but it would be an adjustment to just how do we manage our money and get comfortable with that to the point that you're making. If an opportunity came up, we could say, okay, we know that we're fine doing it this way. Maybe you could make the pivot. All right, this will be our final ad break. We'll be right back after this. If you've been putting off life insurance, I get it.

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42:06Mindy Jensen:Let's jump back into Paul's story. You have so many good options here, and it's hard to, you know, what's the best one from a modeling perspective? You know, I don't know what that is, but I do love the principle of flexibility. And your position is wonderful, but not flexible today. And you can easily remedy that in a pretty short order if you so chose. You know, the other big thing to me that was nice was just walking through this and seeing at the end of the day, the feedback that you guys are getting and the mindset you're sharing is very similar to the path that we plan to go down. And, you know, even the path that, like we said, ChatGPT recommended.

42:44I wasn't sure if sitting down, you're going to say, well, I understand, but like you should be taking the free contributions from your 401k. You're not doing that or that you should pivot it with the HSA or any of those things. And I kind of feel like, man, with our situation and looking at what our goals are, which aren't typical, I'm not saying how do I get to 60 and retire? It's how do we do this at, you know, between 45 and 50? I think that changes the game for what we're doing. And with the portfolio that we have, it kind of changes the game a little bit. I think you guys are kind of aligned to similarly the way that we were thinking.

43:18And the fact that you're interested in self-employment and business building, you're not going to have a zero on your income at that time, which you should really noodle on because if this is your approach to personal finances, whenever you do go into business, it'll take you a year or two, but you're not going to get a zero on there and you may have a whole lot more income than at least you're in individually today, you know, after a one to two year, the one to two year struggle to get your whatever that looks like. It may be a whole lot faster than that. And last, if you do get to that point, guess what's going to happen is you're going to have a whole bunch of surplus there that you're going to spend some of it And you're going to be able to shelter a ton of it in pre-tax retirement accounts because the cheat code in terms of shoring up more money, more wealth in your retirement accounts comes then.

44:03So these are all, again, this is my wildly optimistic case. But why wouldn't I be wildly optimistic for somebody who spends, I don't know, like 1 ,000, 5 ,000 hours consuming content about how to better their financial position, build their business mind, build their investing skill set? But, I mean, you can't take your foot off the gas on that, right? There's absolutely things could go poorly. But the odds are that things will go much better than base case scenarios, at least from an income or opportunity perspective for you relative to peers. So I think that that's something you and your wife should probably sit down and talk about too, is should we be more aggressive about some of these things in the meantime here, given that we do have more than reasonable odds of succeeding relative to other folks in our same situation because of our diligence, how clearly aligned we are at all of our financial goals, how much more we make than we spend.

44:56And, you know, the fact that we could live off just your income or just my income, that's a but it's an incredible position. And I think that there's there's a that component. You have your conservative case modeled out here. You're going to be fine in a lot in almost any situation we can we can imagine here. But are you not being are you not envisioning the potential power of your position to realize benefits even sooner or take that shot sooner? I think part of it too is we haven't gotten lazy with what we've done from a savings perspective, not if we're in the mid 50 % range of all of our income, but we have definitely gotten to a place where we're very comfortable.

45:35right so then you you take that and that's something that we weigh out too with the kids and enjoying life and go all right like are we ready to pull the ripcord there and jump into starting a business and all the stuff that goes into that like i think it'll be fun and i think we're still going to do it once again you're speaking all these languages that say i you could lose like you could lose there's nothing there's no certainty a lot of businesses fail but i mean And gosh, you know, you're one of the best positioned minds and guests we've had to be as successful in business or self-employment, if that's what you so choose that I've talked to in a while.

46:11I mean, you could certainly lose, but these are all the characteristics of somebody who has a great shot at success in those categories. And so I certainly continue to only increase my bias towards that as something that you explore seriously over the next five years. And, you know, your original plan of waiting five years to do it would put you on rock solid footing in there. But there's every every reason to believe that you could shorten that and not have to pay off all five of these high interest rate mortgages before feeling comfortable doing that. You could take that that that leap a little sooner.

46:44And I wouldn't do it with ten thousand dollars in the bank, which you currently have. I think that would have that would that would have to change for me to be personally, psychologically comfortable with that. You're only increasing my bias that that's something to seriously talk about and explore in the next couple of years, if that's also where your heart is and what you'd be doing in retirement anyways. All right, Paul, let's summarize where we're at, I think, after this conversation. So I think Mindy and I are actually taking two different paths here. Mindy is suggesting keep going on the real estate front.

47:10I think you want and either start paying them off or consider moving towards that vision that you have for that retired life maybe a little sooner, especially if it involves business, which is a better, in my opinion, a really good risk adjusted choice for one of you while the other one works for a period of time. I think that that's the end situation. I think we both agree that it's great to let that money ride in the retirement accounts, especially if the plan is not to touch it until traditional retirement and to, generally speaking, deleverage the portfolio. But if you're feeling very confident about your Sheboygan market, you're not getting spooked by the supply.

47:46There's a big imbalance, you know, plenty more people moving in than people building. Yeah, keep going and buying some properties and keep doing what makes sense here. So I think that's the summary in a nutshell. Is that right, Mindy? Do you agree with that?

47:58Mindy Jensen:I do, except I'm saying continue looking for smoking hot deals, not just random properties. Paul, before we go, where can people find out more about you? Yeah, the easiest way to find me, I try to stay somewhat active on the forums just to reach out to me on BiggerPockets. Awesome. We will include a link to your profile in the show notes. Paul, thank you so much for being so transparent with us, for sharing your numbers on the show, because our audience really appreciates a look at the actual numbers. I really appreciate you being willing to share with us. And it's always lovely to talk to you.

48:30Very exciting to be on.

48:32Mindy Jensen:All right. Well, we will talk to you again soon. All right, Scott, that was Paul. And that was another fantastic story. I love that he shared his numbers, first of all. But what I love most about Paul is that he tracks everything. It can seem a little obsessive, but look, he's going to retire in his 40s, not in his 60s. And that's what you have to do when you are looking to retire early is do things like tracking your money obsessively. You can't manage what you can't measure. Have you ever heard that phrase before? He has a clearly stated goal, an achievable timeline. He's not starting off with$100 ,000 and saying, I want to retire next year.

49:09Mindy Jensen:That's not going to happen. He's got a clear picture of what his financial situation is. And because he's so diligent with his tracking and he has such a high savings rate and such low expenses, he's got so many options. I want to point out that the document that we were reading off of is available for anybody to get their whole entire financial picture at biggerpocketsmoney.com slash DIY. We'll be updating those documents. Biggerpocketsmoney.com slash DIY is going to evolve to be a resource library. We're going to be uploading this personal financial statement, an updated version of that goal setting documents.

49:47And then each of the financial plans for the people that we are building them for, like Barb, for example, broke at 50, millionaire at 60, or a Joe who is starting at 22 and wants to get to a million over a 10 year period. So we'll be building lots of those and building that resource library again at biggerpocketsmoney.com slash DIY, all free for Bigger Pockets Money listeners. Yep.

50:09Mindy Jensen:So Scott, what did you think about Paul's story? Well, I thought it was hilarious that we opened up the interview and you asked if it was Sheboygan, Michigan or Sheboygan, Wisconsin. Mindy, that was the most obvious Wisconsin accent you've ever had on the show. And you're from the Midwest. You should know that. I am, I do. I was just wanting to give a shout out to Sheboygan, Michigan. It's a smaller city. Awesome. Well, I agree with everything you said. This is a man with a plan. This is a guy who has built a substantial net worth. Everything speaks to consistency over a long period of time, diligence, tracking, planning, and things.

50:44And we see this time and again in the personal finance and FIRE community where people apply themselves for many years in a row, slowly mastering all of these concepts, slowly getting control of their financial position. And then it's a really strong, really easy to believe story of growth for the next couple of years. And I think that the challenge that I have in that situation is conservative consistency gets you to that point. And it allows you the option to be a little bit more aggressive and take a couple more risks, especially in the business and entrepreneurial front, which I think he's fantastically prepared for.

51:17Mindy Jensen:Oh, yeah. He's got to crush that. I think he's got a lot of options. Whatever he decides to do is going to work over the next couple of years. His base plan of paying off the properties is great. I think he has the option to realize his vision a little sooner because of the odds of success in business he has. I absolutely agree. I think Paul has set himself up very well. And that has come from kind of an entire adulthood of focusing on the goal. All right, Scott, should we get out of here? Let's do it. That wraps up this episode of the BiggerPockets Money Podcast. He is Scott Trench. I am Indy Jensen saying bye-bye, butterfly.

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