Homes Are Selling for Much Less Than You Think | July 2026 Housing Market Update

0:00Are homes secretly cheaper than you think right now? All the data shows that the housing market is flat. Nationwide, the average home costs about the same today as it did a year ago. But those sale prices don't tell the whole story. Because nearly half of all homes sold right now hum with a seller concession. Sellers are willing to pay your closing costs, buy down your mortgage rate, or to make costly repairs just to get you to buy their properties. Seller concessions are more common now than in any other year we have data for. On homes that sell with a concession, they average close to 5 % of the purchase price.

0:41That could easily be the difference between a deal penciling or not. And that's our big story in this July's Housing Market Update.

0:53What's up, everyone? I'm Dave Meyer, Chief Investment Officer at BiggerPockets. Today, I'm giving you my monthly update on all the data in the housing market. We'll cover trends and home prices, the risks of a real estate crash, the rise in seller concessions, and more. Let's dive in. First up, let's just talk about where the housing market is at this year. I'll just give you the big picture headline here. Really not that much has changed. And I know if you look at the news, if you look at social media every day, you say someone's saying the market is going to crash or something's going terrible, or no one can afford to buy homes.

1:31But the reality is we're pretty much where we were three months, six months, 12 months ago. This is why for years now, I have been calling this the great stall because the market is pretty boring and pretty flat. And I'll just share with you the data and information that reflects that. So the first data that we're gonna look at is inventory. This is basically how many homes are for sale at any given time in the United States. And it's a really, really important and helpful metric in the housing market because it helps us measure the balance between supply and demand. When inventory is up, that typically means that there are more sellers than buyers, and that creates a buyer's market and prices tend to go down in those kinds of market.

2:13When inventory is going down, that points to a seller's market. It means there's more buyers than sellers, and that tends to lead to rising prices. What we have right now in terms of inventory is dead flat. It's basically exactly the same, less than 1 % difference year over year. And when I say year over year, just so you know, what I'm doing is comparing this week or this month in 2026 to the previous year. So I'm talking about June of 2026 versus June of 2025. And the reason I do this and talk about this year over year data is because housing is seasonal. You can't really compare January inventory to July inventory because there are always these patterns where inventory and sales are lower over the winter.

3:01They go up over the summer. And so that's why you compare year over year. And what we see is inventory is exactly the same. And so all these people saying housing prices are going to explode because we have inflation, inflation pushes up prices. That hasn't happened. All the people saying that the market is going to crash because everything is unaffordable and no one can buy a home also hasn't happened. What we are seeing instead is inventory is almost exactly the same as it was last year. It's kind of boring. But beneath the surface there, there are some variances that are important here. So there's sort of this like subcategory of inventory called new listings, which is basically how many people are putting their homes up for sale in a given month.

3:46And this is different from inventory because inventory is how many homes are for sale. They could have been listed six months ago or three months ago or a month ago. New listings are just like how many new ones hit the market, the MLS this month. Those are actually going up. Those are up about 8%. And that is notable because when you start to see new listings go up, oftentimes what can happen is inventory goes up too. That's more supply. And then you start to see prices go down. But inventory hasn't changed, right? So you're seeing new listings go up and inventory and flat. How do you square that?

4:21Well, that means that buyers are scooping up those new listings. It means people are coming in beyond what we had last year and buying those new listings. Basically, new demand is offsetting it. Like if these new listings were sitting on the market and we were starting to see this snowball effect that often precedes a deep correction or even a crash, we would see inventory go up, but we aren't. And this is reflected in other data. Like we can verify that this is what's happening because we also see this in pending sales. Pending sales are up 6 % year over year. So if you want a holistic picture, a clear picture of what's going on, the market is still sluggish.

5:05It's not very exciting. More people are listing their homes for sale by a little bit, nothing crazy, 8%, but there are also more people buying. So when you hear all those people saying no one's buying, that's actually not true. More people are buying this year, this summer than a year ago. And when that happens, when you have more new listings, but you also have a corresponding rise in the amount of people who are willing to buy those new listings, the equilibrium or the balance in the housing market stays exactly the same. When demand and supply move proportionally, prices stay the same. That's exactly what we have.

5:41And that's why prices are pretty much flat. They're actually up a little bit, depending on who you ask. If you look, Redfin has it up about 2 % year over year. NAR is like 1.5%. Different sources of different things. But they're all usually, they're about between 1 % and 2%. So in nominal terms, we're seeing modest gains. But in real terms, so inflation-adjusted terms, prices are still going down. And that's why I have said and continue to say that we're in a housing correction, because even though that price you see on Zillow or Realtor.com or whatever is going up a little bit, 1%, 1.5%, you know, it's pretty much flat.

6:19The fact that they are going up slower than the pace of inflation means that real returns. And when I say real, real just means inflation adjusted. Inflation adjusted returns are actually going down. And I think as investors, if that is going down, if we are losing money to inflation on the price of homes, that's a correction, right? That we are losing spending power in that scenario. And so that is what we need to pay attention to. So that's it. You know, in the interest of making good content, maybe it would be cooler if we had some big story to tell you. But I've been trying to tell you all for years that this is going to be boring, that we're in a boring, we're in the great stall.

7:00This is a boring period in the housing market, and that is exactly what we're getting. And I think it's important to call out that this is happening even though affordability has actually gotten worse in recent months. And to me, that's a good sign. Not because I want affordability to get worse. I very strongly want the opposite to happen. But because I think it just shows the resilience of the market. I think that this last three, four months after the war in Iran started, interest rates went up. Inflation has gotten worse. That was, in my mind, kind of a big test for the market to see, like, are we going to see demand really pull back?

7:40Are people super interest rate sensitive to the point where, you know, the rates going from six on average to six and a half percent is going to change demand? And we have an answer now. And the answer is no. And that's good for the housing market. Right. We're seeing evidence of the great stall that even these minor changes in affordability and rates and blah, blah, blah, all that stuff. We're kind of in this. This is where we're at for right now. And I expect that's what's going to continue. I don't really think that we are going to see any fundamental changes to the housing market over the next couple of months.

8:15Now, one of the questions I get a lot is, you know, there's a peace deal kind of in place over the last couple of days. Iran and the United States have been trading fire. So by the time this airs, the ceasefire might be gone. But I just want to call out, like a lot of people have asked me, like, since the ceasefire in place, like will inflation go down? Will rates go down? I don't think so. I think that we're going to have inflationary pressure for the rest of the year and that mortgage rates are probably going to stay higher mid sixes, not like higher than they are right now. If the war starts up again and the Strait of Hormuz closes, who knows?

8:51But like if we sort of stay in the status quo that we have geopolitically right now, I think rates are going to stay in the mid sixes. So if I were you, I wouldn't be waiting around for some big change in mortgage rates. They're always going to swing, you know, 0.1%, 0.2 % in either direction. But I still think we're going to be in the mid, hopefully maybe 6.2, 6.3 if the war ends by the end of the year. But I would be shocked if we were below six anytime in 2026. So that's how I'm personally planning to make my own investing decisions. It's what I recommend for all of you. It's just to count on the great stall continuing for affordability to hover around where it's been and make decisions based on what is a pretty stable market.

9:37I know it's not a good market and I know it's not a healthy market, but it is stable. We kind of know what to expect now. And for me, as an investor, that's really what you should care about. Like, you know that if you lock in a rate tomorrow, it's not going to be that different a week from now. You know that prices aren't probably going to jump in the next three months. They're probably not going to go through the floor in the next three months. This allows you to underwrite deals better. And again, we all hope it gets to be a healthier housing market. But being in a place where you can underwrite deals confidently, that is a good spot to be as a real estate investor.

10:15So take this information, understand that we're in the great stall, underwrite your deals conservatively, but feel confident when you do that. Feel confident that the market is probably not going to do something crazy, at least in the next six months. Great stall is still what we got. So plan accordingly. Now, on top of all this data, which we always talk about every month in the housing market update, there's some new data that I'm stoked about and I think is a huge opportunity for investors who want to grow and pursue financial freedom in the great stall. And I'm going to share this new data with you right after this quick break.

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14:13Welcome back to the BiggerPockets podcast. I'm Dave Meyer. This is our July 2026 housing market update. Before the break, I talked about how we're in the great stall. The first half of the year has been kind of boring. I'm kind of expecting boring for the second half of the year. But I think in the data that we often talk about, that's often in the main street media, I think some great opportunities for investors may be hiding in that data, is not fully represented in that data. And that opportunity, in my opinion, is through seller concessions. If you don't know what this is, this is basically sometimes during the course of negotiating a real estate deal purchase, you ask the seller to give you some money, to give you good terms.

15:04These are things like asking them to buy down your interest rate or to cover their closing costs or, you know, fixing things or adding something to the house, right? Like these are all seller concessions that you as a buyer can ask for. And seller concessions kind of always exist. But there is data that shows right now that nearly half of U.S. homes, when they're sold, give concessions to buyers. Actually, in May, it's the highest on record, according to Redfin. Data does not go back that far. I think it goes back about 10 years. So it doesn't go back to the great financial crisis. Keep that in mind.

15:46But still, nearly half of home sales have a concession. And really, one in seven homes, one in seven, that's like 16%, had a concession and a price drop. And so if you think about this and sort of extrapolate it, it kind of means, in effect, that prices are going down. Now, the headline price, the thing that is recorded with the county and what the records say will say the same top line number. But the number that you as a buyer are effectually paying is actually going down. Because let's just say you're going out and buying a home for$300 ,000. even if you pay 300, but then they give you$20 ,000 in seller concessions.

16:34At the end of the day, you're kind of paying 280, right? It depends on the nature of the concessions and all of that. But you are getting a discount on that deal, even if the sale price does not reflect that discount. And so when I say in the top part of the show that the median home price is up 1, 1.5 % year over year in the nominal basis. That is true. That is factually accurate. But is that data sort of hiding the fact that concessions are where buyers are really getting their discounts? It might not be in the home price where you as an investor and a buyer can get your best discount. It might be getting concessions instead.

17:22And this is kind of just a psychological thing. sometimes people, sellers, they want their number. They just want to sell it for 300. They've decided because their neighbors sold it for 290, they want to sell it for 300. And they're even willing to give you concessions just to hit that number. I don't know why, that's just sometimes how it works. And according to this data from Redfin, the typical concession size runs 1.5 to 2 % of the sale price. But remember, that includes the 50 % of homes that don't get concessions. If you just zoom in on the properties that do get concessions, the average concession is closer to 5%.

18:01So on a$300 ,000 home, like we were talking about, that's 15 grand. That's amazing. Now it might not come to you in the form of$15 ,000. It might be that you don't pay closing costs. It might be five grand goes to closing costs and 10 grand goes to buying your interest rate down from 7 % to 5.5 % or 5%, still super valuable. That is real, real money. And so the reason I'm telling you this is you should be using this in your bid strategy when you're going out and looking for deals. Work with your agent and figure out how to try and negotiate concessions. This should be a tool every investor is using right now.

18:46Now, you got to figure out the right balance between asking for concessions and price reductions because different sellers have different motivations. They, you know, different things that they care about. But try this. I don't see why you wouldn't try to build this into your strategy and your offers if you're in a market that is correcting. You know, if you're in the Sunbelt, like why wouldn't you be doing this? Now, if you're in like Chicago or Milwaukee or Hartford, Connecticut, probably not going to get concessions. But most places in the country, especially if you're targeting motivated sellers or things that have been sitting on the market for a while, this could really work.

19:23It could work better than lowballing the sale price. It could work in conjunction with a lower sale price. That's something you should talk to your agent about how to build the right combination here. But you should be trying this because clearly sellers are showing that they are more willing to give money back in concessions than they are in lowering price. And you should be using that in your investing. Now, you should also know, though, you can't count entirely on concession. There are actually limits on how much concessions can be built into a contract. It depends on your loan type. Like if you're buying for cash, you can do whatever you want.

19:58But like for other loan types, like if you get a conventional loan, it's usually 3 % is the limit. If you're putting under 10 % down, you can go up to 9 % if you're putting like 25 % plus down. for FHAs, the limit is 6%. For VA loans, it's 4%. For investment properties, you should know it is 2%. That's a conventional investment property. And with DSCR loans, you'll have to ask because those are less regulated. It depends on the specific lender. All right, well, hopefully that helps. You go out and bid on your next property. I think this is really cool. We do have one more topic to cover on this month's housing market update, which is our risk report.

20:37We've talked about being in the Greatestall era, but with foreclosures on the rise, we do need to address the elephant in the room and ask ourselves, is a crash likely? Could it actually happen again? We'll get into that right after this quick break. Stick with us. If I had to hire someone to join the BiggerPockets team, I wouldn't just be looking for someone who checks a few boxes on a resume. I'd want someone who understands real estate, can move fast, communicates well, and can jump into a fast-paced environment without missing a beat. When you need that kind of person, this is a job for sponsored jobs.

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22:18Welcome back to the BiggerPockets podcast. I'm Dave Meyer. We're doing our July 2026 housing market update. Before the break, we talked about how we're in the great stall, but the opportunity that comes with negotiating concessions right now, because that is a tool you should be using as an investor. Our last story here today is our risk report, something we do every single month, where we look at some of the fundamentals of the housing market and how some of the plumbing of the housing market and the financing and the credit world work to understand if there is a risk of the correction that we're in turning into a full-blown crash.

22:58And the first thing we always look at when we do this is our delinquency rate. How many people in the United States are paying their mortgage on time versus how many aren't? And the reason this is such a good indicator for the health and relative risk in the housing market goes down to supply and demand, right? The more people who are not paying their mortgages, there are more people are at risk of being foreclosed on. And the more risk there is that there's going to be something called forced selling, where we get more and more new listings on the market. Like I talked about before, you have more and more people listing their homes on the market, not because they want to, but because they have to.

23:38And if that happens at such a big volume that demand can absorb it, that can sort of start a crash. That's what happened in 2008. Right. So we want to know, could that happen again? And as of right now, the national delinquency rate is at three point three five percent. That's the number of people who are in some form late on their mortgage. And that is exactly unchanged over the last month. So nothing has really changed. And it is below the long term average of about 4%. It is also, importantly, below where it was in 2019. I like to compare data now to 2019 because it was the last quote unquote normal year before COVID where a lot of the data you can't really use because it was just so unusual.

24:29It was just an anomaly, right? You can't say, oh, how does foreclosures this year compared to 2021? There were like government forbearance programs. There is eviction moratoriums, like all these things that make it very difficult to compare to that time. So I prefer when looking at this delinquency to look at the long-term average, which is 4%, and where it was in 2019, which was darn close to the long-term average of around 4%, and compared to where we are today, which is 3.3%. So we're still pretty far below. And I know the difference between 3.3 and 4 % doesn't sound like a lot. And it's not crazy.

25:08Like, they're pretty close. But, you know, when we're dealing with really small numbers, the difference between 3.3 and 4%, that means we're almost 20 % lower now in delinquencies than we were in 2019. So if you're worried about a crash coming from a similar source that it came from in 2008, where there was forced selling, not super concerning right now. Now, FHA loans are sort of one area that I have flagged in previous risk reports that we need to keep an eye on. Because FHA loans recently, that delinquency rate really did start to shoot up. Looking at it right now and what we see in just terms of like serious delinquencies.

25:52So 90 days plus, they call that a serious delinquency. Serious delinquencies are up near 6 % for FHA loans. That is pretty high and it is significantly higher than it was in 2019. So again, we're doing that analysis against 2019. It was below four in 2019. Now it's above six. So that is a concern. It's an area that we're going to watch on the risk report. But I will call out that in the last month, it actually started to go back down. That's just one month. I am not going to say that there is no more risk in FHA. I would like to see that come down for several months before we looked at that. But it is good to see that it's not just like going parabolic and we're going to just see more and more delinquencies in FHA.