In short
Day Two of the 29th Annual Milken Institute Global Conference special, focused on U.S. market policy (SEC reporting), AI/data-center investment, Middle East oil and geopolitics (Iran/Strait of Hormuz), digital payments (Zelle), and the growing role of nuclear power for energy reliability.
Guests (and backgrounds)
- Steven Mnuchin, former U.S. Treasury Secretary; former government official advising on economic/financial policy.
- Amos Hochstein, former Middle East senior advisor to President Biden; lifelong diplomat focused on energy and regional geopolitics.
- Denise Leonhardt, Chief of Zelle; executive at a bank-owned direct transfer network.
- Maria Korsnick, CEO of the Nuclear Energy Institute; nuclear industry trade group leader.
- Suzanne Clark, President and CEO of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce; business advocacy leader.
Key claims + notable examples
- SEC may allow/encourage semi-annual reporting to reduce quarterly “noise,” while keeping U.S. transparency.
- AI and cloud spending drive data-center demand; risk is power constraints and potential overspending; training centers may be phased out over time.
- Iran Strait risk is underpriced by markets; physical oil/tanker flows lag “ceasefire” headlines; energy supply chains should add redundancy (bypass routes, more storage).
- Zelle: 7-bank ownership, 2,400 institutions, 160M accounts; $1.2T moved in a year; 20% YoY growth; 30% volume from small businesses; pilots for bill pay and donor-advised funds.
- Nuclear: 20% of U.S. electricity; construction underway for SMRs (TerraPower in Wyoming; GE Vernova in Canada; Kairos in Tennessee); extended plant lives to ~80 years; “ARC Act” and tax-credit tweaks sought.
- Chamber: affordability driven by supply constraints; permitting reform (5–7 years) is the priority.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOWelcome Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin
1:50 to 2:15
Introduction of guest Steven Mnuchin and current news.
“Carol Master and Joe Matthew live here at the Milken Institute Global Conference.”
SEC's Proposal for Semi-Annual Reporting
2:15 to 3:51
Discussing the implications of the SEC's proposal.
“to go to semi-annual reporting, or at least allow it.”
Market Psychology and Current Economic Trends
3:51 to 6:00
Analyzing the psychological factors affecting the market.
“We're going to mess up our world a little bit, but that's okay.”
AI's Impact on Business and Employment
6:00 to 8:02
Exploring how AI affects business operations and jobs.
“And then you have Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, that all are cash machines and are building out both AI and are building out the cloud.”
Geopolitical Risks and Economic Impact
8:02 to 8:41
Addressing the implications of geopolitical tensions on the economy.
“You know, how we play out from here is a little bit more complicated.”
National Debt and Fiscal Responsibility
8:41 to 11:03
Discussing the sustainability of national debt and spending.
“Having said that, there are such positive things going on in the economy that I think, to the extent the strait can open up relatively soon, the economy will absorb those energy costs.”
Federal Reserve's Role in Interest Rates
11:03 to 14:03
Insights into the Fed's impact on interest rates and the economy.
“Hank Paulson mentioned to David Weston the need for a break glass solution.”
Interest Rates and Economic Outlook
14:03 to 15:19
Discussion on current interest rates, inflation, and economic conditions.
“I mean, you see the 30 year bond kind of approaching, you know, kind of 5 percent.”
Lionsgate and Movie Industry Insights
15:20 to 17:15
Insights into Lionsgate's business strategy and the movie industry landscape.
“Well, so let's wrap with one fun question about the movies.”
Global Oil Market Dynamics
17:16 to 19:12
Analysis of oil prices, supply chains, and the impact of geopolitical events.
“Public has modern design, powerful tools, and customer support that actually helps.”
Show all 22 chapters
Energy Market and Future Projections
19:13 to 24:29
Discussion on future changes in the energy market due to ongoing conflicts.
“Amos Hochstein is with us here at Milken.”
Iran's Oil Infrastructure and Economic Impact
24:30 to 28:07
Exploration of Iran's oil storage issues and broader economic implications.
“They have been a threat for how many decades, right?”
Understanding Physical Shortages
28:07 to 28:51
Learn about the flow of resources through different countries and the impact of physical shortages.
“We have physical shortage already, but it just in countries we don't care about.”
Geopolitics of Supply Chains
29:13 to 29:51
Explore the varying perspectives on supply chain challenges from global business leaders.
“Here at Milken on the geopolitics of supply, which, of course, is something that we talk about just about every day here.”
The Growth of Digital Payments with Zelle
29:51 to 34:12
Discover insights into the digital payment landscape and Zelle's unique position in it.
“But we think about these payment companies, Joe, that I don't know about you, but I'm using mine all the time.”
Nuclear Energy's Role in the Future
36:49 to 42:01
Explore the current state and future potential of nuclear energy in the U.S. economy.
“You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.”
Energy Challenges and Legislative Solutions
42:01 to 42:30
Discussion on energy credits, nuclear waste, and the legislative landscape.
“just to help those get ameliorated so you can move right in.”
Suzanne Clark on Business Challenges and Affordability
43:01 to 45:24
Interview with Suzanne Clark about the concerns of American businesses amidst economic uncertainty.
“Well, Carol Masters with us has got to be.”
The Need for Permitting Reform
45:25 to 48:04
Suzanne discusses the importance of permitting reform for faster infrastructure development.
“what would it be that you think the American businesses could really get behind and say, this is a game changer?”
Navigating Cryptocurrency and Financial Innovation
48:05 to 49:58
Discussion on the Chamber's stance on cryptocurrency regulations and their impact.
“We actually do need institutions with historical memory and reach.”
AI's Impact on Small Businesses and Job Markets
49:59 to 53:11
Exploration of AI's rapid uptake among small businesses and its implications for jobs.
“We want to compete with our adversaries, right?”
Bridget Mendler on Innovations in the Space Industry
53:12 to 55:54
Interview with Bridget Mendler about Northwood Space and its role in the space industry.
“You're an award-winning singer-songwriter.”
Transcript
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1:32Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5 p.m. Eastern. On Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts. Or watch us live on YouTube.
1:55Carol Massar:Carol Master and Joe Matthew live here at the Milken Institute Global Conference. in Beverly Hills. With a very special guest that we want to welcome here to our set at Milken. It's the former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Thanks for being with us, sir. Great to be here with you. We've got a lot we'd love to talk to you about, but we've got breaking news that just went right on the terminal right before we began the broadcast, and that is a proposal by the SEC to go to semi-annual reporting, or at least allow it. And you can look at two different sides of this coin. Do you think this is good for the markets?
2:23Is it good for investors? Well, I support the proposal. I think there's too many companies that are too focused on quarterly earnings and whether they miss or beat expectations, analysts' expectations. So I think the idea of giving companies the option of whether they want to do quarterly or semi-annual is a good thing. I mean, I can imagine there are a number of companies, particularly companies that are growing, that are still going to be interested in showing quarterly earnings and showing their progress through the year. But I think giving companies the option is a very good idea.
2:55Carol Massar:Does it do anything to kind of the global perspective from investors about how U.S. market is kind of the gold standard, so transparent because of those quarterly reports and so much more and some of the rules and regulations that really govern our companies here? Well, there's no question. The U.S. is the gold standard for companies to be listed. It's the most liquid market in the world. It's the largest and the largest economy. And I think giving companies the options, I think, will continue to have transparency. Do you think most of them will still stick to quarterly reporting? My guess is some will switch and some won't.
3:26I mean, as I said, if you're a growth company, you have every reason to want to show the growth every quarter. If you're a company that's in turnaround and things are improving, you're going to want to show it. On the other hand, there are plenty of companies where, you know, they're focused on a long term transition. And I think giving them an option is a good thing. You could pretty quickly see two classes of companies when it comes to reporting season. We're going to mess up our world a little bit, but that's okay. After our sessions, they're going to feel really different, Carol. I'd love to hear from you on this market as a whole and the psychology that's confounding a lot of us.
4:01As we mentioned already, it's rally time, Mr. Secretary. Oil prices are lower again today after the defense secretary suggested that this effort in the strait would not go on forever. That's all you need, and we're back to buying on Wall Street. Is this getting a little toppy, or can you rationalize what you're seeing? I think there's two things that are going on in the market. One is that you have very large CapEx spending and very large growth around AI, around data centers, around the cloud. And that, to me, we are still in the early innings of this transition. There's no question that AI is going to impact almost every business that we touch.
4:42And that's something that's going to be a very positive way. But there's also going to be job issues and job implications on that. The second thing we have going on is the U.S. is the destination of where people want to invest. You know, Europe's economy is underperforming. People are concerned about what's going on in Europe. So the flow of funds into the U.S. dollar, in particular into U.S. equities, is still very strong. As I like to say, if you can take a 10-year horizon, there's no better place than buying S &P 500s. You know, if you're day trading, that's a little bit of a different issue trying to predict the short-term market.
5:18Carol Massar:How do we figure out whether or not the spend in terms of data centers is just too much, that there isn't some overspend ultimately? You know, we were talking on a panel, a real estate panel, with folks who are all investing in data centers, talking maybe, like, do we need to have an exit strategy? You know, we talk about data centers in space. Like, this thing could evolve. Chips get more efficient. So is it something that could be down the road but not to worry about now, or do we need to think about the overspend? Well, I'd say in the short term, the demand for compute is very strong. And you're seeing this across a number of companies.
5:54I'd say there's two different things. You have OpenAI and Anthropic, on the one hand, who are going to consume a lot of cash as they build out these businesses. And then you have Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, that all are cash machines and are building out both AI and are building out the cloud. I think the good news is if there's overspending in the next few years, they'll cut back. So I don't think you're going to see the same trajectory. I think the other issue is going to be we're going to run out of power for data centers. So I think it's people want to spend the money now, get the data centers operating, and if they have to scale back over time.
6:35I mean, some of these data centers, particularly the training centers that have 15-year leases, My guess is 15 years from now, they're dark. The cloud data centers will have tremendous growth and will be around for the next 50 years.
6:48Carol Massar:Do you have exposure to the area? We spent a lot of time on the area. We're long-term investors in what we believe are stabilized data centers. Do you worry that, just to add on to that, and I think this might be where you're going a little bit, Carol, that efficiencies, whatever is going to be developing in the next couple of years, will render these massive data centers useless. They could be the size of a phone booth at some point, or just a completely different, to Carol's point, in space. Is this something that has a shorter timeline, knowing that technology will evolve? You know, if you look back at data centers from 20 years ago in Virginia, we're still using them.
7:27Well, that's true. So, again, I separate training data centers. You're going to need to train these models. then you're going to, it's very different kind of the cloud native issues. But just going back to the market, you know, the market is discounting kind of the geopolitical risk, in my opinion. So, you know, we don't really see, the market is expecting we're going to have a good outcome. I completely support President Trump and what he's doing in Iran. I always said Iran getting a nuclear weapon is the biggest risk in our lifetime. And there's no question from my experience in the government, they intended to do that.
8:03You know, how we play out from here is a little bit more complicated. And as you said, we've seen a lot of volatility in the oil markets and the stock market is really not discounting this going on. So that sounds like we're missing something here. I wouldn't say we're missing. What I'd say is hopefully we will have a good outcome. Iran will come to the negotiating table. I think the economic and the blockade, the sanctions work. Even if the strait reopened tomorrow, though, we've heard that it could be months before energy flows are back to where they were. Does the market have a reality check coming on that?
8:38I think it will take a while. Having said that, there are such positive things going on in the economy that I think, to the extent the strait can open up relatively soon, the economy will absorb those energy costs.
8:54Carol Massar:I want to ask you, you obviously were in the first administration. you have a better, really probably great understanding of President Trump. And as we say, the markets can go from day to day based on the headlines. It looks like it's a 180. How should we be reading what the president is doing? What do we need to understand? Because do you feel like this is a different Donald Trump's, the second term versus the first term? No, I don't. I think there's a lot of similarities in it. I think on this issue, and this is an issue he's been focused on since the first term, He's determined, and his legacy will be, that he's going to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.
9:30And there's been other administrations that were, you know, understood the risk but were concerned. I also give Israel a lot of credit because one of the concerns was all the ballistic missiles. And obviously the defense, the air defense systems in the region have been very powerful. But no, I think this is a president that would prefer not to go to war with them again, but will if he needs to.
9:55Carol Massar:But this could go, could we be still talking about war at the end of the year? I think we could. I mean, I think he's determined that he prevents this from happening, the nuclear situation. And I think that part of the issue is, and he said this, you know, he took out a lot of the leadership. So part of this is making sure that leadership develops in Iran that can negotiate a deal that they'll stick with. What's the other geopolitical? Because you say geopolitical. Is it just the Middle East? Are you thinking about China? Are you thinking about other parts of the world? No, I think it's I mean, there is this war in Ukraine.
10:32I don't want to forget what's going on in Ukraine. That's still an important issue. I feel like we don't see it on the press every day. but obviously the big issue right now in terms of risks for the economy and risks for the world is the Middle East. You know there's another cloud you could argue is hanging over this market that has nothing to do with the war in Iran although maybe there's a connection at some point when we start talking about the cost of this operation but that's the debt now topping 100 percent of GDP Mr. Secretary. How long can we sustain this? Hank Paulson mentioned to David Weston the need for a break glass solution.
11:08What should the Treasury be preparing at this time for this? Well, I unfortunately think there's not a break the glass solution. You know, I think there's no question that during COVID, we had to spend massive amounts of money. We shut down the economy. I mean, anybody who ran a business never ran it, thinking you'd have zero revenues. You know, I'm particularly proud of we save to the airline industry. So we have a very robust airline industry. Except for Spirit. Well, no, but we saved the industry overall. And I think it was the right thing to let Spirit go through what they are. Having said that, it kind of normalized trillion-dollar spending.
11:50And I think this is an issue that needs bipartisan support. You know, part of it is the mandatory spending. We have to deal with that part of the budget. And, you know, you also...
12:03Carol Massar:Defense, too, though? If you look at what's being allocated for defense in this budget, it's a lot. Look, there's no question, particularly in this day and age, we need to spend more money in defense. I think right now it's going to be hard to spend another$500 billion in defense without significantly cutting other things out of the budget. So I am concerned about deficits. I think this has to be dealt with. And I think the good thing is President Trump understands these issues. and if there's someone who can tackle the spending issues, I think he's the one to do it. Does this mean, I mean, what's the make or break moment?
12:38Carol Massar:Because I'll go back 10, 15 years, we were talking about concerns about the deficit or more, and then it kind of faded away. So what is the make or break moment? And I think about this in the context of Kevin Warsh coming in as the next Fed chair, you know, in terms of servicing the debt and so on and so forth, pressure that might be on him. Kind of roll it all together. Do you think that he should be cutting rates in this environment? Well, I think we're close to the equilibrium rate. So before the situation in the Mideast, we did have inflation coming down close to the Fed's 2 % target. And I think you could say the equilibrium rate is probably between 2.5 % and 3%.
13:19So we're close to that level. Also, there's no question that the deficits push up our cost of funding. so that there's a risk premium built in. And one of the things that Kevin is talking about, which I also support, is shrinking the Fed's portfolio. Well, if you shrink the Fed's portfolio, that's also another tool that you don't have to lower rates. Ultimately, the Fed does short-term, sets short-term rates if they're not doing quantitative easing, which they're not going to do now. They're not setting long-term rates. I mean, and I don't think we're going to have a make or break moment where one day we wake up and we can't finance the debt.
13:59I do think you'll see an increase in risk premiums. I mean, you see the 30 year bond kind of approaching, you know, kind of 5 percent. Part of that is the volatility around inflation and what's going to happen with the war. But part of that is also just pushing up the cost of long term financing for us. What's Kevin Worshin for when he wakes up in the morning and looks at Truth Social? Is this contentious relationship with the chair, if he's not cutting, going to continue? I think Kevin will do terrific in his new job. Is that a yes or no? I think he will be an independent Fed. That doesn't mean that he will or won't agree with the president.
14:41Now, look, part of it is where interest rates are depend on the economy. If we continue to have a very strong economy, we're not going to need to cut rates. If for whatever reason we go into a recession, we will have 1 % rates. So, I mean, we had zero rates in COVID. You know, there was a reason why they went down to zero.
15:00Carol Massar:Hey, we can't leave without talking about Lionsgate. I think you guys have about a 13 % position. We do. What's your plan with Lionsgate? What do you want to do? It's a great business. I've recently gone on the board. Yeah. Lionsgate is one of the few independent studios left. It has an incredible film library. And Michael's been a great success. Do you want to own all of that? The story of Michael Jackson. Do you want to? I can't comment on that. Well, so let's wrap with one fun question about the movies. Michael is an incredible debut. Looks like it's across the board when it comes to demographics.
15:34And we're in a world where consumer sentiment is pointing lower. There are worries about consumer spending, the price of gas. But they're lining up for that movie. What does that tell us about that business? It shows you that when you have the right content, people still want to go to the movies. It's not just about sitting at home and watching it on TV. And, you know, Michael Jackson was just an incredible performer, and his music was obviously pretty extraordinary.
15:57Carol Massar:On my playlist. Congrats on the movie. We all remember growing up with MTV and Thriller. It's not just old folks going on, you said. Exactly. Who's old? Not you. 20 seconds. Do you miss the administration, being inside? It was an experience of a lifetime. I couldn't be happier that I did it. I'm proud of what we did. I'm enjoying being on the outside and rooting for them. Well, we certainly enjoyed having you here. Thank you so much. Really appreciate it. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this. Amazon Pharmacy presents Painful Thoughts. Of course I see my coworker in line at the pharmacy.
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19:03Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130. Amos Hochstein is with us here at Milken. We should remind everybody we're in Beverly Hills today, which is a bit different at the Milken Global Conference. And of course, former Middle East senior advisor to President Biden and a lifelong diplomat with a real sense of nuance when it comes to the energy markets. Amos, it's great to see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg. Thank you. It's always good to be here. Many questions about how we rationalize what we're seeing right now.
19:37The fact that oil is lower by simply even though Iran is shooting at ships. But one statement from the government that the ceasefire remains in place and we're selling oil today. Is that the move? Well, two things. One, remember that we're saying that oil is lower. Yes. Oil is at 110. Well, that's right. We're still in several digits. So one, we're at 110.
19:56Carol Massar:It was at the start of the year. It was 60. I know. It was 60. So we're basically almost double where we were. And we're talking about nobody thinks of 110 ever as a low oil price. Well, that's fair. That is a very high oil price. Just directionally speaking, though. But here's what's happening. The market really wants to rally. They don't like bad news. The stock market. The stock market. Totally. The stock market. The physical market and the stock market are divergent at the moment. We may get convergence at some point. We probably will be. We don't know if the convergence will be when the stock market realizes where the real physical market actually is or that the war actually ends.
20:34We have an opening and then the physical market will go to where the stock market is. But they are not in the same place. $110 of Brent oil is only available on a Bloomberg terminal. I know where you're going. You can't buy that barrel. That barrel of Brent oil is selling for 150, 145 some days, 155, even 170. Supply demand, right? Because it's only paper. It's people on Wall Street. That's the real market. The real market right now is that there is not enough oil. We're in a demand destruction in certain countries, but they're poor countries first. So stock market doesn't care. So we are in a place where every day that goes by now with fake headlines.
21:15And what happened today at the Pentagon is fake headlines. We're not really in a ceasefire because missiles are flying. That's usually the definition of a ceasefire, is missiles don't fly two days in a row. We don't have a ceasefire in Lebanon because we still have fighting in Lebanon, despite the fact that we say it's a ceasefire. And tankers are not moving despite the fact that we have government officials say they are moving. They're not. So that means that there's no tankers on the water going to Asia, going to Europe. None. Zero. And so that bite will deepen every day.
Read the full transcript
21:51Carol Massar:Okay. So I guess, I don't know, how do you then look at things longer term? Because I think what most folks are also thinking off of this war, that things are going to be changed forever in terms of people thinking about, we talked about this yesterday, about countries' access to strategic commodities, whether it's oil, whether it's really ensuring that their supply chains are solid, that they can't be disrupted. And that means a lot of domestic production. That means probably higher costs around the world. It feels like it's a very different global economy going forward. So I think that's... Should we prepare for that?
22:24I think we will prepare for that. And in fact, some of it has already happened. Yeah. So this is similar to two other events. One is the 1970s, which led us to build a strategic reserve, created the IEA, the International Energy Agency. Structures of the energy market were different moving forward after the 1970s. they were very different before, changed forever. COVID changed how we think about supply chains. We suddenly got shocked by the supply chains, which is why we started stockpiling. We started thinking about making sure that we didn't live on, you know, one supplier, et cetera. And now what's going to happen is the Strait of Ramirez is under Iranian control forever, basically for the foreseeable future, regardless of nobody in the market should look at what the deal says eventually and believe it on Straits.
23:11Iran will control the Straits. Everybody in Washington will believe it. Nobody in the Gulf, no one in the Gulf will believe. They know the Iranians are not going to control this. What does that mean? It means you got to change, Carol, what you said. You got to build out infrastructure that does two things. One, bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. It's possible to do. It's not even that expensive. A few billion dollars. But a few billion dollars in what we're talking about doesn't cost very much. The redundancy is important. Second, build out more storage facilities in destination countries. So we already have some storage in places like Singapore, but build them out in Tokyo, in Delhi, China already has, not just of oil, but of jet fuel.
23:55Airports should probably hold a little bit more jet fuel capacity.
23:59Carol Massar:Just ask Cliff Tunza, canceling flights for the summer. Exactly. Not just them. I think everybody, if you're an American listening to this and you think you're going on vacation this summer, plan for a very, very expensive one. Driving is going to be very expensive. And so will RVs. RVs will be even more expensive because diesel is through the roof and jet fuel is hard. Can I ask you why this is happening right now? If it was President Biden and you were advising him, you know, were you guys pushing to do something to this effect in Iran? They have been a threat for how many decades, right? Look, we used to joke whenever people come and say, oh, my God, we're.
24:38Carol Massar:We've had people come on and say, listen, this was long overdue. It was time to do something. We knew this was a country that hated America. Yes. By the way, they're not alone. If we're going to war against every country that hates America, then there's a list that we may have to go to war for a few more months, a few more years. North Korea is not funny, actually. North Korea is doing a lot on nuclear. They hate America. We're not going to war there. Iran is a place where, first of all, we had a deal with Iran to not go to a nuclear weapon called the JCPOA in 2015. President Trump got out of that in 2019, probably should have stayed in, because the deal we're talking about now that we will get is going to be very similar to that.
25:18There'll be some cosmetic changes, it'll be very similar. We didn't have to do this war. I understood some of the rationale of the June War several months ago. They were cheating on the nuclear side. If they're not going to go back into a deal, a limited strike. And the Iranians didn't strike back and the proxies didn't strike back. They didn't close the straits. It was limited in scope. It was limited in time. And so I understood that this war was a moment of opportunity. There were a lot of protests that were rising up and President Trump said, help's on the way. And all of a sudden got painted into the corner and then started coming up with reasons why we're in this war.
25:59Nobody really knows why we're in this war. No American really knows why we're in this war.
26:03Carol Massar:I don't even think, yeah. But it doesn't matter from the administration. But they change. You mentioned storage, though. I want to ask you about what's about to happen in Iran when it comes to their own oil storage. Because there's nowhere to put the oil at this point. They're loading tankers almost. They're putting oil supposedly on trains to China. The president says the whole underground infrastructure is going to blow up, which I'm not sure is true. But if they have to start shutting wells, that's going to be a pretty major moment and something that could happen in days or weeks. Do you? Well, first of all, it was supposed to happen already several days ago.
26:36So that's not. So it didn't happen. Here's the thing. Because I dealt with there is real economies of oil where you look at the Baker Hughes manual. What do you do in this situation? And there's wartime and stress time. They're very different. I was spent I spent a lot of time in southern Iraq trying to help them refix. Yes. and so on. And if you went down there, no manual told you to do it. They should have been shutting. There is a way, Iran is a very good engineering country. They have remarkable engineering talent. They've been in the oil business 100 years. They know what they're doing. When we did them, I was in charge of the sanctions 15 years ago, so 2012.
27:13And we took them down to like 900 ,000 barrels of exports. And instead of doing all of what President Trump suggests, you know, things blowing up and just shutting everything down. There are ways for them to do wartime economizing, right? So you shut down one field, do some maintenance on it, then you bring it back, you shut down the next one, you can do a rotation. You can set fields on fire, which is by design, which doesn't put any pressure on the pipes below ground. I don't expect to see any explosions. They are hurting economically. They are devastating economic pain in Iran.
27:49Carol Massar:And yet, here we are still at war with them. This is, I mean, they can handle the pain. I'm just saying they can handle the pain. And their view is how long can you handle the pain? And I'll tell you this. We're going towards a cliff on oil and oil products by the end of this month. Physical shortages. We have physical shortage already, but it just in countries we don't care about. So then they will write because they're poor. But then it'll go to middle income countries like Vietnam and Thailand. Then it goes to Japan and Korea. and then it comes here. And here's the thing. You want to fly out of the United States?
28:24You can say, we have oil. We have jet fuel. Okay, can't take it with you. Wow. When you fly out, you got to be able to refill somewhere else.
28:32Carol Massar:It's already making its way through manufacturing supply chains. Like you are feeling it. And ask the airlines when it comes to jet fuel. AI spends a lot of money. Hundreds of billions of dollars. Which is not dependent on consumers. They need power. But they're not dependent on consumers. What happens when consumers say, I can't spend this. I have no money. Almost, thank you. It's great to have you on Bloomberg. I hope Milken treats you well. Full optimism, please. Amongst Carol Masser, I'm Joe Matthew. This is Balance of Power, live from L.A., only on Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.
29:00Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5 p.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Here at Milken on the geopolitics of supply, which, of course, is something that we talk about just about every day here. But interesting to hear from voices around the world. Those were business owners and executives operating in the Middle East, operating in Asia. And they each have a slightly different angle on this, although it's a common thread throughout this conference.
29:30Carol Massar:I feel like the supply chain grab is on. And some people in some countries are certainly better positioned than others. Supply chain grab. We should have called the panel back. I like that. All right. I'll work on it. Hey, we're going to do a little bit of a switch to something that's actually top of mind because we have PayPal out today planning job cuts. The new CEO is really pursuing kind of a massive turnaround strategy at this company. They're going to make Venmo a standalone unit. But we think about these payment companies, Joe, that I don't know about you, but I'm using mine all the time.
29:56Carol Massar:A hundred percent. Kind of this concept of digital money. We want to see what Denise Leonhardt has to say. She's the chief of Zelle. I use Zelle a lot. Thank you. She's here at Milken. You're very welcome. Tell us about this because this is a consortium of banks that are involved in it, and it's kind of direct to bank to bank transfer. Tell us about your world, what you're seeing in terms of activity on the platform and what it kind of tells you about our economy. Yeah, so we are owned by a consortium of seven of the largest banks, but we actually have a network of 2 ,400 financial institutions.
30:26So that's everything from the largest bank in the United States to those small community banks and credit unions. And those are really important to us. And we have 160 million accounts on the platform. That includes consumers as well as small businesses. And in December, we actually had 100 million of those accounts were actually active. So during that holiday season, 100 million customers in the United States were actually using the Zelle.
30:48Carol Massar:Which is pretty typical? Yeah, it's actually pretty typical. And we continue to see this increase in terms of digital payments. So we had$1.2 trillion moved on the platform last year. So that's larger than the GDP of Switzerland, to put that into context. And we're continuing to grow at 20 % year over year. So we just continue to see more and more people move away from cash, move away from check and go to these digital payments. You just had, I believe, your second consecutive trillion dollar year. Exactly. Where do you find growth from here? I know that you're working on potentially having an opportunity for people to pay their mortgages, to pay their rent, recurring payments like this that might make your life a little bit easier.
31:31Is that the next opportunity for Zelle? It is. So when we talk about the value proposition of Zelle, it's exactly how you described it. It's moving from one account to another account and being able to do that quickly and safely and securely. So what we want to do is actually just open up more use cases for people to be able to use Zelle. So that includes small businesses. It includes we have currently a pilot with BillPay with our friends at Truist. We also have a pilot for donor advised funds in order to get into the charity space with Bank of America. So we're continuing to pilot these and hoping to expand them and expand our roadmap.
32:04You just want more and more people on the platform. More and more people and also thinking about us more and more often.
32:08Carol Massar:Denise, where's the growth? You know, you talk about bill pay, you talk about donor advised, you talk about small business. Where's the growth? Yeah, I think that there is growth in all of it, actually. So it's just that recurrence and using us continually to make all those different payments to people or to small businesses that you know and trust. Can you tell us in terms of data? I mean, everybody's got lots of data, anything that's digital. So what can you tell us about the types of payments? And it doesn't give you any indication about the health of this economy. It feels pretty good. We talk about the market going up, but we know the market isn't necessarily what is going on in the broader economy.
32:39So on the platform itself, we continually see this increase of overall payments. So, again, 20 percent year over year. But what we're also seeing is this boom in terms of small businesses. So 30 percent of our volume is small businesses, and that's actually our fastest growing segment. So part of the reason why small businesses love Zelle is because they get their money almost immediately. and then they can be able to pay their workers. They can be able to go out and buy supplies instantaneously. So it's that quickness of payments that people love. Is your sort of long-term vision or your dream a cashless society?
33:13Well, when's the last time you went to an ATM? I'm just kidding. I don't know about you. I'm already living in it.
33:17Carol Massar:Hey, Joe, they got rid of the penny. They did. They don't make them anymore. I keep finding them in my pockets, though. I have to remind my daughter. There is actually money under all this. I actually feel silly sometimes. I don't remember the last time I carried cash, but there are a lot of people that do. And I guess, I mean, is that the goal where cash is useless? I mean, the goal for us is to get more and more digital payments. It's more safe. It's more secure. And it's also more convenient. What is it? Does the structure stay just as, you know, multiple bank ownership? Is it something that this is a company that could essentially go out on its own?
33:48Carol Massar:I think that makes sense. It will stay in the current ownership structure. it's actually fun to be part of this ownership structure because you get the best payment minds in a room often and really thinking about the innovation as the entire ecosystem moving forward yeah it's kind of fascinating uh to see that um thanks so much for stopping by thank you for having another snapshot of what goes on here at milken denise uh lean hart she's chief of zell joining joe and me stay with us on balance of power we'll have much more coming up after this Amazon Pharmacy presents Painful Thoughts Of course I see my co-worker in light at the pharmacy Can he tell I'm picking up prescription hemorrhoid cream?
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36:56Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130.
37:08Carol Massar:We are back here at Bloomberg Institute. Bloomberg, The Milken Institute. Boy, did I just tell them that I just renamed it? Well, we could maybe work on that for next year. We could do it. Milken Institute Global Conference. Carol Massa, Joe Matthew here in Beverly Hills. One thing we talk about a lot, and we've spent some time talking about the energy space over the course of this program, almost Hoxstein painted a pretty bleak picture. We also talked a lot about data centers. And these two stories come together in a way that has reinvigorated the conversation about nuclear in a way that nobody could have really predicted.
37:39We talk about it with experts in the industry, the need for more power. We talk about it with lawmakers who are trying to find a policy path. And our next guest can speak to all of this. Maria Korsnick is the president, chief executive officer of the Nuclear Energy Institute, the trade group for the nuclear industry. It's wonderful to see you. I'm sure you've been awfully busy at milk. And this is a conversation a lot of people are trying to get close to, whether it's the small modular reactors that could end up landing around data centers, whether it's actually taking old decommissioned nuke plants out of the mothballs and putting it back online.
38:14When do we start actually building and seeing approvals when these projects are proposed? Well, we're doing that already. Right. So you have the TerraPower had their construction permit approved out in Wyoming. They're beginning construction. They're building actually in Canada, the GE Vernova first SMR for that's about 300 megawatts. And then down in Tennessee, the Kairos power test reactor is under construction as well. So we have actually transitioned from just some great ideas to actual construction.
38:49Carol Massar:When does nuclear become something really significant in the United States? In a country where we know there's a lot of neighborhoods, a lot of areas that just don't want to have any kind of nuclear facility in their area. Well, we're 20 percent of the electricity sector today. So I would say nuclear is already making a difference. and honestly we're not hearing the pushback that you're mentioning for local communities anymore. One of the latest polls showed greater than a 60 percent favorability rating for nuclear and climbing. I think part of that is what you mentioned. It's the data center conversation.
39:22Data centers are looking for really reliable energy. They'd like it to be clean. Nuclear is here to help. And so you're going to be seeing, first of all, extending the lives of plants we have started out 40 we got it to 60 have over about 25 plants approved for an 80 year life okay so what you have is going to last longer what you have can make more power so three quarters of the fleet are going to do power up rates that's going to bring five ish to six gigawatts of new power to the grid and that can be short term are the the near-term solutions small modular reactors or should people get used to seeing large plants like we used to at just a different scale in the old days?
40:05Yes, all of the above. Okay. Check your data center. Do you want an SMR on your property? Yeah, it might. So there's a couple of different things. If you're a data center, you need that power. Constant, constant, constant, right? They don't want to have that disruption. Off the grid, potentially as well. Could be off the grid. But because of the high reliability that you want, you might want to have a couple of small packages rather than one large package. If you're a really big data center, you might want several large packages. So I think it depends on your solution, but it's literally all of the above.
40:35From the large gigawatt size to the medium size to the even really small, we call them micro reactors, so think less than a megawatt even. And so you're going to be able to look at nuclear as a solution set
40:46Carol Massar:in ways that you just never thought before. You mentioned the SMRs, though. Do we really have a viable design and it's happening? Because I feel like we've been talking about it. So how long though before those are actually in use and production? So one's in construction in Wyoming, one's in construction in Canada. You just heard X Energy within the last two weeks do their IPO, raised over a billion dollars. That's an SMR. But when are they up and running? What are you hearing? So early 2030s I think for that design. But the GE design I think is talking about being online in 2030 and same for the Terra Power design.
41:22Carol Massar:Do you think when you guys ask Americans if they're comfortable with it, I mean, is it because they're is it against the backdrop of higher electricity prices? Because I think Americans are feeling so squeezed. And is that where they say, OK, if that's what's going to make it less expensive for me, I'm in. You know, it's a combination of things. If you want energy security, nuclear has that. Do you want it clean? Nuclear has that. Do you want it reliable? Nuclear has that. I mean, the value proposition broadly for nuclear. And it's not just here in the United States. It's around the globe. What do you need from Washington?
41:51What do you need from policymakers to continue the growth? It's still hard to go first. So one of the things that we're asking for from a legislation perspective is what's called the ARC Act, which is something that's going to help the government lean in on a little bit of those first-of-a-kind risks just to help those get ameliorated so you can move right in. The other thing is we got some energy credits, the tax credits, and they're wonderful. They're a couple of tweaks. would like to opt out of normalization to let you get that tax credit faster and some transferability. And both of those are in legislation that's on the Hill now.
42:24Carol Massar:All right. Interesting stuff. We didn't talk about nuclear waste, which is always an issue, too. Next time. I'm going to leave it there. Maria, though, thank you so much, because I do feel like when we talk energy, you're right. Everybody's saying we need it all in order to power. Maria Korsnick, Nuclear Energy Institute CEO, joining us right here at Milken. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5 p.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
43:00Thanks for being with us on what we'll call a special edition of Balance of Power here at the Milken Global Conference. It's special. It's special, indeed. Well, Carol Masters with us has got to be. I'm Joe Matthew. you as you just heard live at Milken. And it's been an interesting conversation today that we want to continue here by going to the top of the mountain with the face of American business.
43:20Carol Massar:I have to feel exactly. And I feel like all the conversations we've had lead up to this, whether we talked about energy, higher costs, inflation, supply chains, geopolitics, politics in Washington. Suzanne Clark is with us. She's president and CEO of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. A great voice when it comes to what's going on in the business community. What is top of mind? Because the laundry list of things that is coming at American businesses right now is a lot. Well, thank you so much. Thank you for having me. I was saying a minute ago that we were just with the L.A. Chamber yesterday. And it's such an opportunity to get out and talk to local businesses, big and small, about what's happening in their community.
43:56And what we see is businesses really trying to deal with all of this uncertainty. What should they be doing about finding workers? What should they be doing about their supply chains? What will happen with the economy? What does AI mean? So all the things that you've been tackling all morning, business leaders are live trying to figure out themselves. What conversations are you having when it comes to affordability? I know you were on a panel today with Neera Tanden. It was on the broadcast a little bit earlier. Both of you, I'm sure, coming from different perspectives. When you're trying to keep American business in mind, knowing price pressures from the gas pump to the grocery store are very real.
44:32You reached for the word uncertainty first. How do you speak with your members about this, the challenges they're facing and about to face? Well, you know, let me say first that Neera and I had violent agreement about the need for permitting reform, right? That we really need to build things faster. All of it, right? It's housing, it's electricity, it's utility costs. It's, you know, so what could we do as a country to build things faster, more efficiently, and cheaper? So that comes up with affordability. The U.S. Chamber, we really believe a lot of the root of the affordability problem is a supply constraint, right?
45:04We don't have enough housing. We don't have enough access to health care. We have labor shortages in key sectors. We don't have a resilient supply chain. So the question is, if we want long-term economic growth, 3 % growth that lifts up families and communities in the country and helps pay off debt, if we want all of that, we've got to take some of these structural issues really seriously.
45:23Carol Massar:Like which one? If we could tackle one right now in this given moment, what would it be that you think the American businesses could really get behind and say, this is a game changer? I really think it would be permitting reform. Think about the fact that it takes five to seven years to get a permit. In that time, you'll have a change of administrations most likely. Right. So if you have one administration that prefers one type of energy and you have a different administration that prefers a different type of energy, how do you decide where to invest and what to build? And yet at the same time, as you've reported, we need all of the above.
45:50Suzanne, how do we get there, though?
45:51Carol Massar:Because I think about, you know, the American business community, they have a great line often to the White House and to lawmakers. So how do they say, hey, folks, it's not just about four years, four years, four years. It's about a 10-year plan. China does it. It's a whole different country, and I know that. But how do we do that so that we really commit longer term to build some of these things that need that perspective? It's such a good point, Carol, because we certainly do not want a government-planned economy, right? None of us are for that. But you're right that we do need government to set the conditions so that we can grow so business can solve these problems at scale that society really needs answers to.
46:24And I think maybe we have to do two things a little differently. One is talk to more people at the local level, local businesses, local chambers, and get them to drive community support for politicians who are willing to do some hard things. And two, I think businesses are going to have to get more involved earlier in the process, in the primary process, and really thinking about candidates who don't want to just admire the problems and say expedient things, but are willing to do hard work and take hard votes. You know, I think about you sitting in your headquarters right across from Lafayette Square, looking out the window at that White House.
46:55You've been there a lot longer than this administration. And to your point, you're going to be there for administrations in the future. But this Trump administration has embraced crypto in a way that we have not seen in a White House before. And, of course, the timing has a lot to do with this, with this suddenly kind of going mainstream. And there's a clarity act that Republicans and some Democrats are hoping to see past this this year. In fact, it could be sooner than later. Are we managing the rules of the road when it comes to crypto in a way that the chamber can support this approach? I really like the question.
47:29And I really even more like the preamble, right, which is we just had our 114th birthday. How about that? I know. I don't look a day over 112. You look amazing. Thank you. I really feel the weight of the fact that, you know, who was the guy in my office in the Depression or in World War II? And how did they think about emerging technologies, emerging financial instruments? How did they think about the impact on working families and communities and American security and competitiveness? And how do we do the long-term right things while being empathetic to the real short-term pain? So I think your preamble was just so important.
48:07We actually do need institutions with historical memory and reach. And I think it's really important. Sound like an institutionalist. But the chamber not taking a position on crypto? Look, I think what we want to do is be supportive of new technologies at the same time that we don't lose sight of what really works in this country and the traditional capital markets and traditional financial services. We want to be careful.
48:31Carol Massar:I mean, banks have been watching this so closely. That's right. And they've gone from pushing back completely, not interested, to embracing slowly, but I think moving carefully. But there is this concern. We talk about disruption and innovation, that how could something like the digital world or cryptocurrencies replace so much of what the banks do? So is there a lot of pushback that you guys are getting from the banks? At what point is that innovation good and is that disruption dangerous? And it's what you're always balancing with a new technology. And so I applaud these industries and these companies that are educating Congress and getting to a point where we can do something that makes sense and makes sense for business.
49:07It's, of course, not just crypto. When we think of emerging technologies, there's another industrial revolution happening right now. Have you heard of it? Take the words from Jensen Wong. That's what he calls it. How concerned is the chamber about, to your point, there are wonderful things that AI is bringing to us, but there could also be a negative disruption when it comes to the job market. Is that a worry of yours? Do you want to hear something cool? You know the fastest, the people having the fastest uptake of AI? Yeah. Small business. Okay. It's the first technology in the United States that small business embraced first, which is really a leveling out, right?
49:39A great equalizer. Last year, the United States had 5.6 million new business starts. That's optimism for you. And some of that is that they can do more with AI, which is really fascinating. So the answer to your question is, of course, everyone can see there's a disruption coming. We don't have revolutions without some kind of disruption. So how do we help people through that? because we're long-term optimistic about job growth, about health impact, about the innovation, about what it does for our country. We want to compete with our adversaries, right? So I think this is a really important topic, and we're going to have to do re-skilling and education, but the short-term disruption, I think, is going to lead to a nice hockey stick.
50:15You know, we need a little bit of optimism.
50:17Carol Massar:I feel like there's a lot of serious stuff we've talked about today. A hockey stick. Let's take it. Yes. A hockey stick. Thank you for the optimism. Suzanne, what a pleasure. Thank you so much. Thanks so much for having me. Suzanne Clark, President and CEO of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5 p.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. We are going to go to space here to talk about another emerging technology, but it's also one that has been rather mainstream.
50:51And it's not just SpaceX. It's not just Jeff Bezos. there's a massive collection of companies that fulfill what we call the modern space industry. And one of them is Northwood Space, where Bridget Mendler is CEO and co-founder and joins us right now, live from the Milken Global Conference. It's wonderful to see you and welcome. You actually control the ground infrastructure that helps to make satellites work. As I mentioned, it's not always the most obvious type of approach that your company has found something unique. when you're talking to business leaders here at Milken, what markets are opening for you?
51:26What does this mainstreaming of space mean for your company? Yeah, well, thank you both very much for having me. It's fun to have the occasion to talk about space at a forum such as this. And what we do is that networking infrastructure between Earth and space. So enabling all of the space missions that we are seeing commercialized, whether it's things like direct-to-sell applications, really expanding the telecom sector, or different national security priorities or, you know, enthusiasm around compute and growing compute solutions from orbit, really bringing a lot of the industries that have typically been terrestrial into a more expansive architecture that goes beyond.
52:07Carol Massar:But I've got to ask you, because, again, somebody like an Elon Musk and a lot of stuff that he is doing, whether it's Starlink, tell us how you differentiate what you guys are doing from a lot of the big players so we understand exactly what this business is. Yeah. And so what we're excited to solve with our company is the networking infrastructure for the industry writ large. We tend to draw comparisons to like an AWS platform where you think about not everybody was able to have their own IT department and local data storage solutions. And so AWS opened up that solution for many more companies to grow and blossom.
52:42Think about the whole SaaS ecosystem that we've been able to see grow and expand as a result of that. And so for the space networking solution, the kind of nuts and bolts of that networking, it's not really a differentiated solution for a lot of space companies, but it consumes a lot of their time, a lot of operational overhead, complexity, and cost. And so for us, if we can do that at scale, provided as a generalized solution for the industry, then that opens up a lot of different businesses to really grow their prospects. I just have to acknowledge what everybody's thinking watching this right now.
53:13Yes, this is the same Disney Channel. You're a Disney Channel actress. You're an award-winning singer-songwriter. Bridget, you have a bunch of fans around you. I'm just going to tell you. You'll have a bunch of fans around you.
53:23Carol Massar:You're a different generation from showing me. Yes, this is the same Bridget. How do you go from that world to investing your life in a space company? You know, I... You could be doing anything right now. You know, I think the space industry is full of people who are just extremely passionate, curious, and I feel really grateful to have discovered that community. And I also feel grateful that the world is kind of opening up its excitement around the mainstream aspects of this industry. Think about Artemis this year. Think about SpaceX IPO. Is there a halo effect from Artemis on all of your businesses?
53:57I think what it points to is that these missions are becoming possible in a way that is more mainstream. And that's really the core of our business. The core of our business is how can we take all these ambitious missions and get them further faster by providing the infrastructure that is kind of common and serves to be a strong foundation.
54:16Carol Massar:Actually, the Bloomberg team back home, they know my dad was involved in the initial space race. So we kind of grew up with this. And it's really fascinating to see it move so much into the private sector and kind of away from the government. Having said that, I'm curious about who's working with you, who are your customers, who's funding you. Like, what's the longer term plan here? You've got a big round of funding. Yes, we've raised around$140 million to date. And our customer base is very intentionally broad. We want to serve the whole space industry. And so that includes government customers, customers that require ground connectivity for solutions ranging from launch to GPS satellites that power a ton of diverse applications for us, really, to sensing applications.
54:58And then you have real commercial industry. So we're in communications with multiple public communications companies in space. that are trying to resolve their networking infrastructure.
55:07Carol Massar:Where are you in terms of development and deployment? And just got about 30 seconds here. Yeah, it's a really big year for Northwood. Last year it was about developing our very first site, our very first operational units. This year it's about scale. So we currently have sites in multiple continents, both in Australia and the United States. We're planning to be on eight different countries this year and producing nearly 100 antenna units. So it's going to be a very busy year. Where are you going to space? You know, that's what's next, right? That's what this is all about. One of our producers, James, I think wants to go to space too.
55:40Carol Massar:I'm just going to tell you. We'll put them together. He's over there. Producer James is actually with us at Milligan. I'm glad you pointed that out. Bridget, it's wonderful to meet you and great to see you. Thank you for all of your insights. Thank you very much. Northwood Space is the company. This is Balance of Power. She's Carol Masser and I'm Joe Matthew. you.
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From the publisher
Bloomberg Washington Correspondent Joe Mathieu and Bloomberg Businessweek Daily co-host Carol Massar broadcast live from the 29th annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California.
On today's show, Joe and Carol speak with:
- Steve Mnuchin, Liberty Strategic Capital, Founder and Managing Partner, Former Treasury Secretary under President Trump
- Amos Hochstein, Former Middle East Senior Advisor to President Biden
- Denise Leonhard, chief of Zelle
- Maria Korsnick, Nuclear Energy Institute CEO
- Suzanne Clark, US Chamber of Commerce President
- Bridgit Mendler, Co-founder and CEO, Northwood
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
