Amazon Reports Fifth Straight Quarter of Cloud Sales Growth & Apple Sales Slow Down

22:15My take is that service is a little soft, and the China number missed the estimate we have here on the Bloomberg terminal. But at the same time, that is pretty nice growth on an annual basis where they were sort of, I guess, in the toilet in China a couple years ago and last year, but they've totally rebounded there. It's going to be interesting to see how the foldable iPhone performs there as a status symbol, well north of$2 ,000. So I think it's going to be a hot product there, especially because foldables are taking over the smartphone market in China. Yeah, I know you're going to buy a foldable phone.

22:46Of course I am. I'll be first in line. So is it the light services in China that's moving the stock lower? I mean, I know the stock was up to more than 22 % going into this print. Yes. I mean, they smashed Mac, right? But I don't think investors have fully grasped the importance of the Mac at this point. I mean, it sort of feels like an afterthought compared to the iPhone and the iPad. The iPad is always light. Wearables have been light for a couple of years now because they haven't really done a ton there. But that is going to accelerate big time over the next three years with these AI devices.

23:15Glasses are going to shoot those numbers up. Do you think people will buy those? I do. I think you'll buy them too. Tell me about them. Well, Apple is not going necessarily after the smartphone market. They're looking to create glasses that people want to wear, just like the Apple Watch replaced the traditional watch market. They think that their smart glasses are going to replace sort of the low-end to mid-tier glasses market. Not the Maison Bonnets of the world, but, you know, the SLR Luxotticas of the world. So they're really going to go after those brands there. They'll have cameras built in.

23:51They'll do all the stuff that Meta does, but a little bit more premium and Apple-y because it'll integrate with your iPhone, whereas they've really held back iPhone integration with the Meta glasses over the past couple of years.

23:59Carol Massar:Do they actually create something that is, you know, competitive in terms of share at the company that moves the needle in terms of the iPhone? Does something else finally come over in terms of contributing more to the bottom line and the top line? You know, I think Ternus will be CEO for the next 15 years, unless again, something goes wrong that we're not expecting. And someone asked me earlier today on one of the programs, what's going to be the most important product in Ternus's tenure? And I, to their surprise, said the iPhone. I think it's going to be the case that we're always going to carry something in our pocket, the iPhone or something like it is always going to be at the center of everything.

24:34And then we're going to be augmented by glasses, watches, earbuds, you name it. But at some point, there will be a transition to be had. I just don't see it anytime in the near future. Has Apple given up on the Vision Pro? Has Apple given up on the Vision Pro? It's on the backburners of all backburners at this point. There's a revamped version that's lighter in development. I don't anticipate it before the end of 28 or early 29 could go further back from that because they have been heavily prioritizing this glasses push. Smart glasses with no display, smart glasses with AR display. They've got a long roadmap of multiple generations ahead of both of those categories.

25:15And you'll see them introduce the glasses strategies early as June of next year. What do you want to hear on the call? I want to hear about the memory shortage. I know it's not sexy, but investors are interested in that. I want to hear about Tim Cook's thoughts on how the transition is going. Most importantly, I want to hear Ternus's vision for Apple. Are we going to hear that on this call? Are we going to hear that on the next call? Probably not. These guys don't really say anything. I'm laughing because, you know, you shared with us earlier about John Ternus and Tim Cook being dressed identically.

25:48Like, you know, his vision is going to be whatever Tim Cook says the vision is. Is it going to be?

25:52Carol Massar:Is it? Is that what it's going to be? Yeah. No, I think that, I mean, he's going to come in and make major changes to the company. Just like Steve Jobs, arguably one of the greatest CEOs and visionaries of all time, Tim Cook came in there. It's not like he took a wrecking ball, but he shook things up pretty quickly. He was the one who instated the buyback program. He was the one who instated environmental initiatives. He was the one who instated tons of new product lines. And you can bet Ternus is going to do the same thing. And so we'll see how long that takes, but he's not going to come on and say he's going to do things differently than his predecessor.

26:22He's going to go on and say how incredible Tim Cook has done. And even if I do half of what you do, it'll be a success. Yeah. So. $5 trillion market cap, pretty close to it. Expectations were high going into this. What's the question that if you were able to ask a question on the call today, what would it be? If I were able to answer or ask a question, I would straight up ask Ternus, what is your vision for the future of this company? How are you going to get to this next stage of growth? And how are you going to create an AI devices strategy? Well, I mean, the good news is I don't get a question because the bad news is he wouldn't answer that.

26:59And just I was keeping track, that was three questions. Well, you know, I'm a journalist. That's what these analysts do too.

27:04Carol Massar:But if he's not going to answer a question about vision, and you kind of know that, where else would you, what else would you want to know? I would want to drill down into his operational expertise and get his viewpoint as someone who's not from the operations department about the memory shortage, how long he sees that running for and what work is going on internally to solve that other than just hiking prices. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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29:35break each morning on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube. I am here with the Jersey Mike CEO, Charlie Morrison. Charlie, thanks for joining. Congratulations on listening today. Thank you. It's a great day for Jersey Mike's. I have to say, I don't envy any CEO that has to list in this crazy market we're living in right now. It has been quite volatile, especially for a lot of your peers.

30:07I mean, Sweet Green down 4%, Shake Shack down 24 % year-to-date, Wingstop also, which you once led down 44%. So why was, amid all of that, why was now the right time to IPO? I think it's a great time to IPO, Jersey Mike. This is a brand that's been built over many, many years. We have a rich history of over 70 years. The last 20 years alone, the only brand that can cite 20 consecutive years of positive same-store sales growth. We've been able to navigate the choppy waters over many, many, many times through our cycle, Even this year, year to date, same store sales continue to grow. We've seen sequential improvement from quarter one to quarter two, exiting quarter two at 2.3 % same store sales growth, most of that driven by traffic.

30:46So it's a great time to bring this brand to the market. We can deal with some of the challenges that are in there, but really it's for the long term. So the fundamentals look good heading into this, but was there ever a banker that was thinking, hey, Charlie, maybe now is not the time. Maybe we need to wait for calmer waters. Not at all. They told you full steam ahead. Yeah, this is a brand that's really well built for the public market. What about the pricing? Because shares have fallen initially down 8.7%. They've come back, of course, now down only about 4%. What do you think of the pricing?

31:12Was the pricing off, perhaps? And that's why we're falling? Today, maybe valuation's a little bit too richly priced, rather? No, I don't think it has anything to do with the pricing. I think the market's been a little choppy over the last few days, trying to find its place. Again, we're not looking at today's price. We're not worried about this. We're worried about the long term and continuing to do what we do well, which is grow restaurants, grow our same-store sales growth, continue to deliver great value for our shareholders, and we know they're going to win over the long term. Let's talk about the long term, because now with IPO proceeds in hand, what do you want to do with them?

31:42What are the opportunities for growth that you're going to be pursuing? Well, I mean, we're a brand that is an asset-like model, so we're a 99 % franchise. We generate a lot of cash. We carry some debt. We're using the primary proceeds just to pay down our debt a little bit, so we get down below four and a half times our EBITDA, and that's okay. Over time, we really will use our cash to return that capital back to shareholders, which is very much the common practice in a business like ours. And that'll be the continued pace over time. I know one of the growth strategies that you're pursuing is international expansion.

32:14You have big plans for the U.K. specifically. I know the market. I lived there for a while, for about six years. They do eat at Subway's, so they know sandwiches. Quality might vary there. but they love like a Tesco's meal deal where they get, you know, a sandwich and a bag of crisps, as they would call it, for four pounds. How do you convince them and how are you certain that a British audience would like a Jersey Mike's? Well, we know people all over the world enjoy sandwiches and sub sandwiches. Certainly the market's been well established. What they don't know is the authenticity of how to really deliver a deli style sandwich the right way, the way we do it here at Jersey Mike's.

32:48That's been part of who we are for the last 50 years. It's exactly what we're going to bring to the UK. We're going to bring the brand in its full force to the UK. And look, we have a hot sub option as well. So our cheesesteaks, our hot subs, other products will be anchored on the menu. And we're going to do it in a high-quality way. People want that kind of quality and authenticity. Do you need to change the menu? Anything for the breaks? Not really. I mean, one little thing maybe. We might bring salted beef to the protein mix and lineup. We know that's a big fan favorite overseas in the UK. And so you might see that change.

33:18But otherwise, it's going to be authentically what we've been all about at Jersey Mike's for a long time. This subtle dig of they know subs out there, but like maybe not the real deli style. Charlie, elsewhere, here in the U.S., there has been this real concern about the outbreak of Silasphora and the concern about iceberg lettuce. I know a lot of the majority of Jersey Mike subs use iceberg lettuce. Is your supply chain affected at all? We are not. We're not affected at all. In fact, we do buy whole head iceberg lettuce, but we buy it from primarily Salinas, California this time of year. None from Mexico.

33:49We actually take very good care of that product. We bring it in in a whole head fashion. We peel the outer leaves off, wash it carefully, and actually shred it for our customers right there. And so we don't see any risk associated. That hasn't impacted our business. It maybe hasn't impacted your supply chain. Chipotle said the same thing. We source it somewhere else. But yesterday they pointed out it has impacted sales because of the psychological concerns. Are consumers pushing back or maybe at least not asking for lettuce on their sandwiches? Well, every one of our sandwiches can be customized because we make it to order right in front of you.

34:18And so if a customer wants to opt out of the lettuce, that's fine with us. We'll accommodate that. Have they been? Not really. I mean, we've been eating them for the last two weeks on the road. We've been enjoying them. I think customers understand that the supply chain moves very quickly. The product's probably out of the supply chain, and everything's fine. The credit card and debit card data that the Bloomberg team tracks does show a little bit of slowing in July for Jersey Mike. Certainly still growing, but a slowdown in that growth. What accounts for that, then, if it's not the lettuce of it all?

34:45Well, I think there's a lot going on in the marketplace right now. I wouldn't look to any one or two weeks as indicative. Lots of things kind of ebb and flow. And too often you can get too much data that will point to two different things. But right now we haven't seen much. So summer sales have been strong maybe besides a little bit of July? Yeah, we haven't talked about anything about this particular quarter at this point. We certainly saw strong performance in the first quarter, sequentially improving in the second quarter. We exited the second quarter on a strong note as well. And so we're going to continue to play our game and execute a game plan that is going to drive long-term sustainable same-store sales growth.

35:18So I hate to do this to you, and I hope you don't check your social media mentions. But if you just look up Jersey Mike's, there is just a wide swath of people who say, since the Blackstone PE overlords came in, they've changed the sandwiches. They have shrunken size. People love to complain that PE comes and ruins their favorite sandwiches. Charlie, can you say here definitively, have the sandwiches changed at all, quality or otherwise? Not at all. Since you came into the helm? Not at all. That's just hype and social media. They like to pick on people for that reason. We haven't done nothing.

35:47I mean, I've been involved almost as long as Blackstone has. We haven't changed a thing. Why would we? This brand has grown 20 consecutive years, positive, same-store sales growth. We don't need to change the menu. We enjoy one of the lowest food costs in the industry. Our franchisees have some of the highest cash-on-cash returns in the industry. They want to grow and build more stores, and they're going to do that. And so no need to change anything. We love this brand. and we love the way we deliver the product, and we're going to continue to do it that way for a long time to come. On the cost, because generally this market, if you track the macro data, things like dairy, meats, the prices have been rising.

36:20How have you been accounting for that? How do you keep your margins? Well, we have a very diverse lineup in our menu in terms of the proteins that we offer, so beef, chicken, pork, different products all within our menu, and we're able to balance that over time. So as one is high, like beef prices today, we focus on other parts of our business, And we've been able to maintain that over time. We also have a very scaled supply chain. Over 3 ,000 restaurants strong. We buy in very high volumes and are able to hand that back to our franchisees in the form of a very low food cost, around 27 % of sales, which is industry-leading.

36:52How about prices? Are you able to use that as a lever to charge more prices, higher prices for your sandwiches? Certainly over time, we do take price. Our long-term algorithm is low single-digit same-store sales growth for this business. That will be equally balanced between price and transaction growth. We err towards transaction growth. That's really how you grow the health of the business over time. We've taken some price as we've seen commodity inflation, not nearly as much as some other brands. And that, quite frankly, is what's been fueling our growth this year and years prior compared to the rest of the concepts out there.

37:22All right, Charlie, that's all we have time for. Thank you so much and congratulations again. My pleasure. Thank you.

37:26Carol Massar:Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

37:37actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions. Buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge. On public, you can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English. Like, if the VIX hits 25, buy a put option on the S &P 500. Or, if my cash balance goes above$20 ,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve of the workflow and your agent handles the risk. Monitoring the market, watching for your conditions, and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks.

38:17You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com slash market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com slash market. Paid for by Public Investing. Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing,

38:43At Radiolab, we love nothing more than nerding out about science, neuroscience, chemistry.

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39:28Carol Massar:Monetary policy matters, not just by what we say or even what we do. So what did he say? What did he do? That's what we want to kind of get to. Let's get to it with Stuart Paul. He's Bloomberg Economics, U.S. and Canada economist, on set with us right here at Bloomberg headquarters in New York City. Ira Jersey, out there at our Bloomberg Princeton Bureau, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist. So, Stuart, Ira, I put this, posed this question to you both. Are we overreacting? Reacting? Is this a new version of Greenspan speak? We know the iconic Fed chair, he often intentionally used vague, highly technical, ambiguous language when talking about or asked about monetary policy.

40:06Carol Massar:And you had to read between the lines. So is this, let me start with you, Stuart, Kevin Warsh doing the same thing? Or is he just kind of new on the job, finding his way? I think that it's an attempt at the same thing. I think that Kevin Warsh's attempt to use abstraction or obfuscation is intended to provide less guidance to financial markets and to market participants. But we live in a materially different world than we did 20 years ago, and Alan Greenspan would do the same thing. Market participants are used to guidance, for one. And we are also in a period where we're trying to understand the Federal Reserve's reaction function separate and apart from the verbal guidance that's being given.

40:43So I think that the different world that we live in actually makes it almost impossible for Kevin Warsh to pull off a good Alan Greenspan impression. I also think that the abstraction and obfuscation is an attempt to basically kick the can down the road a little bit. And when you see market pricing starting to get ahead of the Fed, it actually makes it it's him failing to do his job if his attempt is to buy additional time by kicking the can down the road. If failure to provide guidance ends up resulting in any sort of additional market pricing that will end up getting a rate hike, let's say, in September, then he's not achieving the goal of kicking the can down the road.

41:24We're going to bring you in just a second, but I want to just pull on this thread a little bit. Why is he kicking the can? Which can is he kicking down the road and why do you think he's doing it? To go back to the Alan Greenspan analogy, one thing that we know that Kevin Warsh is indexing on is the potential for AI to produce a lot of productivity gains and additional supply capacity that would result in disinflation and that would make a rate hike today a policy misstep. I think that he's trying to draw a similar comparison to his circumstances today to what Alan Greenspan was doing in the 90s.

41:58And so by buying some time before he has to make any decision on policy rates, he's essentially, you know, trying to this is the can kicking exercise. He's trying to buy that time to avoid the potential for a policy misstep by moving too soon in either direction right now.

42:14Carol Massar:Wise man would say, is he right? Which is something I often hear in my life from various people in my circle and world. You're right about everything. Oh, it's not me. It's not me. Hey, Ira, come on in on this. Same question to you. Is it Alan Greenspan 2.0, or is he just figuring things out, or do you kind of agree with what we just got from Stuart? Well, I think he is trying to bring things back to the pre-global financial crisis communications period. And, I mean, you've seen that very clearly in the last two statements where you have 115 words compared to the 800 words that we had in 2014 in the post-meeting statement.

42:52I think that the market's not going to like what Kevin Warsh is trying to do, and not because it doesn't provide, but mostly because it doesn't provide any information at all, right? So one, why bother having the press conference? He said that the reason they're doing it is because they promised to do it. He could have just made a statement and said, I'm not taking any questions and walked away. That might have helped his cause at least a little bit. And the market's not very trusting of him right now. And in order to get that trust back, he is going to have to kind of live up to what they've been saying.

43:25And he said, we want to fight inflation. Well, to the market, that's saying, OK, well, if you're fighting inflation, that means you have to increase interest rates. If they don't increase interest rates and you still have 3 plus percent year on year PCE over the next couple of months, the market's not going to like that. You're going to see more of what you saw yesterday. You'll see higher yields in the long end because there's going to be a lack of trust in the central bank. How high could that yield on the long end get, Ira? Well, so it'll be difficult for it, I think, to break around five and a half percent.

43:56But that would still be the highest level in almost two decades. Right. So that is a scenario where you have all of these AI hyperscalers and just about everyone who issues long term debt is going to find it harder to borrow or at least more expensive to borrow. Right. Now, whether or not they're immune to higher interest rates or not, I think, is yet to be seen. But presumably, if the long end goes up to 5.5%, you're probably going to get close to 5 % on the 10-year, which means you're going to have much higher mortgage rates, right? So you're going to wind up with probably a slowing in the mortgage market and the housing market in general.

44:32And it will filter through to just about everything throughout the economy.

44:35Carol Massar:Right. U.S. mortgage rates already rising to a 12-month high amid some of the fighting in Iran, feeling concerned about higher inflation, but it's just kind of the general macro there on that. Stuart, is there a real case to be made that it's not really within the Fed's remit to communicate with us at all? I mean, this is an organization that is responsible for two things, maximum employment and stable prices, not explaining itself to us eight times a year. It's certainly not obligated to explain itself the way that it has been, and certainly not obligated to provide guidance to the extent that guidance is useful in achieving those two objectives.

45:16price stability and maximum employment. I think that -

45:20Carol Massar:And it's worked, right? Has FedSpeak kind of like so much - In recent history? Well, just FedSpeakers in general kind of maneuvering the market. Like they get it. Yeah. Look, I think that it has worked. I think that communication as a tool is asymmetric. I think that it's really valuable when policy rates are low. I think that when you have two-sided risk and you're trying to be really deliberate about which direction you're going to move on the policy front, you don't want to bind your hands by offering too much guidance. If you haven't truly made up your mind on what you're going to do over the next two years, it could be a little bit detrimental to your own cause to offer too much guidance.

45:59One thing that I do want to circle back to is the point that Ira made earlier, which is one that Kevin Warsh also commented on during his press conference, which is that if you end up seeing a selling off on the long end of the curve and it does ripple through into the real economy, it's almost as though markets are doing some of the heavy lifting for the Fed. But I think that I differ from Chairman Walsh and maybe a little bit with Ira here too. It seems as though over the last several years, the real economy has been basically insensitive to both policy rates and even to longer term rates. I think that where, and maybe this is slicing everything just a little bit too thin, the thing that I worry about is where market volatility starts and deteriorating wealth effects actually start weighing on consumer spending.

46:45It's really been favorable wealth effects that have undergirded consumer spending in the face of souring sentiment. I think that if we end up seeing that, we end up seeing market volatility and deteriorating wealth effects. I think that that, frankly, will matter more than selling off in bonds at the long end.

47:00Carol Massar:Interesting. Hey, guys, what I want to do, and Ira, come on back in here. President Trump, shortly after the decision, made some comments about he's a brilliant guy, meaning Kevin Warsh. He was in the Oval Office. He goes, I know he'd love to actually see lower interest rates. He's got a board. It's a political board. They want to keep rates up. But we fight through rates. Is this, in your view, do markets think this is an independent Fed share? So, well, we have, you know, I talk to a lot of investors every day. We have, you know, several thousand that we interact with on the Bloomberg Terminal on a regular basis.

47:36And one of the things that people said was that there is a large swath of investors who worry that Warsh is an accolade of Trump, right? And that basically he wants to lower interest rates, but he can't because of the committee. So what President Trump said yesterday is not a surprise. And I think it didn't really surprise many of us that Warsh maybe wants to keep rates where they are or ease them. But there's a huge swath of people on the board that don't want to move interest rates or want to increase them. Importantly, and I want to go back to something that Stuart was mentioning before, there's a difference between forward guidance and reaction function, right?

48:17There are two different things. And I think Kevin Warsh, for as smart as he is, didn't understand that the markets don't really necessarily need or want the actual forward guidance. What they want to know is, what will you do if these three, four, or five scenarios? And if you do that, you'll actually will get then the market reaction and what the market then telling the Fed what it thinks is going to happen as a forward-looking discounting mechanism. And you can't do that right now if you don't exactly know what the reaction function is, because you told us effectively at your Humphrey Hawkins testimony that you're going to fight inflation and you didn't, right?

48:55And that's where I think there's a disconnect between the market and what Kevin Warsh is thinking. It's an interesting point that you make, Ira. And Kevin Warsh said a few times over that he's happy that markets are playing the ball, they're following the data, rather than playing the ref, the Fed. I think that that's a horrible analogy that Chairman Warsh was making, though, because the Fed is a player on the field, right? So it's not the case that markets can just strictly pay attention to the data without knowing the Fed's reaction function. You're exactly right, Ira. And when Chairman Walsh is unwilling to specify either how he would respond to different scenarios because he doesn't want to bind his own hands, or he doesn't even want to specify what inflation measures he's looking at, it becomes really difficult for markets to anticipate what the other player on the field is doing.

49:45To put this in sort of a geopolitical context as an analogy, the U.S. has always maintained this sort of strategic ambiguity about what it would do in the context of China and Iran, or excuse me, China and Taiwan. But strategic ambiguity does not work for the most important central bank. It does not work when you have literally trillions of dollars moving around the world. And it does not work when you're trying to at least ensure stable prices, maximum employment, and stability in financial markets. It's not really a strategy, strategic ambiguity.

50:20Carol Massar:All right. Well, you can read a lot about all this, the questions after that press conference and decision by the FOMC and really the new Fed chair. All right, guys, thank you so much. Really appreciate it. As always, Stuart Paul, Bloomberg Economics, U.S. and Canada economist, Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence, Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app.

50:56You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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