In short
The episode covers three business stories: an AWS outage, Apple’s early-2025 stock surge, and political/economic developments plus regional banking and critical-minerals stocks. On AWS, Bloomberg reports that a widespread outage began with a database loading incorrectly, triggering cascading failures across services used by government agencies, AI companies, and financial platforms. Sarah Fryer (Bloomberg News Big Tech team leader; author of No Filter: the Inside Story of Instagram) says the fix may be “fixed now” but errors take time to propagate, highlighting concentration risk and future uncertainty as more code is written by AI.
On Apple, Mark Gurman (Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Tech) discusses Loop Capital’s upgrade to buy and claims iPhone 17 Pro/Pro Max and redesigned base iPhone are driving demand; he cites a pipeline including foldables, smart home devices (competing with Ring/Ecobee), smart glasses, and iterative Siri updates.
Other segments
a profile interview with Josh Green about Gavin Newsom’s Democratic leadership prospects; Zions Bancorp earnings framed as non-systemic credit benignity; and U.S. Antimony CEO Gary Evans on a $245M DoD contract and potential government stake.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOAWS Outage Impact Discussion
0:30 to 1:30
A detailed exploration of the recent AWS outage and its implications.
“The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works.”
AWS Outage Impact Discussion
4:00 to 6:55
A detailed exploration of the recent AWS outage and its implications.
“That is something that people will still feel the effects of for a little while.”
Apple's Stock Performance and Consumer Trends
6:55 to 8:26
Analysis of Apple's stock rise and consumer product trends.
“Bloomberg News, big tech team leader, author of No Filter, the inside story of Instagram.”
Apple's Stock Performance and Consumer Trends
9:20 to 10:09
Analysis of Apple's stock rise and consumer product trends.
“Now own the card that rewards you for it.”
Apple's Stock Performance and Consumer Trends
10:13 to 10:23
Analysis of Apple's stock rise and consumer product trends.
“Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., member FDIC.”
Apple's Future Product Pipeline
10:23 to 14:01
Discussion on upcoming Apple products and market expectations.
“You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast.”
Apple's Future Product Innovations
14:01 to 16:44
Learn about Apple's upcoming product lineup and market strategy.
“around$1 ,000, you're going to see phones starting at$2 ,000 from Apple at the end of next year.”
The Value of the iPhone and Consumer Behavior
16:44 to 17:52
Explore how pricing strategies affect iPhone sales and consumer perceptions.
“not replaced, right, but succeeded, right, with the iPhone still sticking around.”
Gavin Newsom's Political Comeback
17:52 to 19:24
Discover the factors behind Newsom's resurgence in politics.
“Apple, now a$3.9 trillion market cap company.”
Impact of Redistricting on Democrats
19:24 to 21:45
Understand the significance of redistricting initiatives for the Democratic Party.
“Went out to Sacramento, spent some time with him, talked to him.”
Show all 28 chapters
Gavin Newsom's Leadership Challenges
21:45 to 24:12
Analyze the challenges facing Newsom as he leads California amidst various issues.
“And as you said, there have been prominent Republicans like former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger who have come out and said, no, we don't want to do this.”
Social Media Strategy in Politics
24:12 to 26:40
Learn how Newsom leverages social media to shape his political image.
“I mean, one thing that just always surprises me, though, is is where he was and who he was with early on in his political life.”
Political Risks and Collaboration
26:40 to 28:05
Examine the risks Newsom faces in collaborating with Trump after mockery.
“Josh, do Democratic voters also connect with the way he's begun using social media, kind of playing President Trump at his own game with AI generated content and caps and so on and so forth?”
Political Risks of Natural Disasters in California
28:05 to 29:33
Explore the political implications for California's leadership amid natural disasters.
“Karen Bass, the mayor of Los Angeles, spoke at Bloomberg Screen Time earlier this month, and she talked about collaborating with President Trump in the wake of the disastrous wildfires.”
Market Movements Post-Earnings Reports
29:33 to 30:11
Discuss the stock performance of Zions Bancorp after earnings reports.
“Josh Green, national correspondent, Bloomberg Business Week.”
Analysis of Zions Bancorp's Quarterly Results
30:11 to 34:28
Delve into the earnings report of Zions Bancorp and its implications for regional banks.
“up by about 3.9%, bouncing around, Carol, in the after hours, but steadily in the green just after reporting those results.”
Impact of Private Credit on Regional Banks
34:28 to 37:16
Examine how challenges in private credit may affect regional banking sectors.
“You know, Herman, one of the things that we were all talking about is, you know, what does this mean for the regional banking sector overall?”
Assessing Credit Risk Management in Banking
37:16 to 41:01
Learn about the credit risk assessments and management practices in banks post-GFC.
“So it's an indirect impact, something that we're clearly very vigilant on, Tim, as it relates to just thinking about credit risk and so forth.”
Assessing Credit Risk Management in Banking
42:01 to 42:14
Learn about the credit risk assessments and management practices in banks post-GFC.
“An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks.”
Assessing Credit Risk Management in Banking
42:19 to 42:36
Learn about the credit risk assessments and management practices in banks post-GFC.
“Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA, and SIPC.”
Assessing Credit Risk Management in Banking
43:38 to 43:57
Learn about the credit risk assessments and management practices in banks post-GFC.
“Make every journey more rewarding with a$300 annual travel credit and access to a network of airport lounges, whether you're looking for pre-flight productivity or time to rest and recharge.”
Assessing Credit Risk Management in Banking
44:01 to 44:12
Learn about the credit risk assessments and management practices in banks post-GFC.
“Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., member FDIC.”
U.S. Antimony Production Update
45:01 to 46:09
Discussion on U.S. antimony production and market trends.
“Rising as William Blair analyst Neil Dingman initiates the companies as outperform as he sees the government potentially taking a stake in them.”
Government Contracts and Capital Structure
46:09 to 47:08
Insight into U.S. government contracts and the company's capital structure.
“This is the DLA, which is the Defense Logistics Division of the Department of Defense.”
Acquisition of Larvato Resources
47:08 to 48:16
Details about the acquisition of Larvato Resources and its implications.
“So what that does for us is it adds additional value.”
Valuation and Share Acquisition Strategy
48:16 to 49:24
Exploration of share acquisition strategy and company valuation.
“People don't realize that antimony is used in many, many different things, and especially with the new AI technology going on, we make fire retardants for roofing materials, which all these data centers require.”
U.S. Government Collaboration and Future Plans
49:24 to 51:56
Discussion on collaboration with the U.S. government and future plans.
“I want to go back though, to what Tim asked you, Gary, initially about William Blair's call.”
Conclusion and Market Performance
51:56 to 53:10
Wrap-up of the interview and discussion of market performance.
“You know, I'm not really in a position to talk about that at this point, but you can see the close alignment between the United States' antimony and the U.S.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00As a top-performing advisor, you demand top-performing funds. That's why Fidelity's 1 ,000 experienced research professionals combine deep insights and advanced analytics to deliver consistent outcomes for clients across market cycles. Explore 300-plus Morningstar-rated 4 - and 5-star funds at i.fidelity.com slash top funds. Across all fund share classes of Fidelity, Fidelity Advisor Shares, and Fidelity ETFs as of 6-15-2026, past performance is no guarantee of future results. The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works. At IBM, we've seen this firsthand.
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1:34Carol Massar:Make more of what's yours. Accounts subject to credit approval. Restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., member FDIC. When you're running a business, the best days are the ones where priorities stay on track. For midsize and large companies, risk can affect multiple parts of the organization at once, from property and liability to cyber and regulatory challenges. At that level, managing risk becomes an ongoing discipline. At the Hartford, the focus is on helping businesses manage risk before it turns into something more disruptive. And when losses do happen, that work is paired with insurance coverage shaped by years of underwriting, risk engineering, and claims experience.
2:14Carol Massar:Learn more at thehartford.com slash risk mitigation. Policies provided by Hartford Fire Insurance Company and its property and casualty affiliates, Hartford, Connecticut. it. Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenevec on Bloomberg Radio. AWS is the world's largest cloud provider.
2:58You know this. The company is saying issues continuing to plague its operations after a widespread outage degraded services for a range of customers, including government agencies, AI companies, and financial platforms. Shares of the company, they've actually traded higher today, up 1.3 % right now. We got a great voice on this.
3:15Carol Massar:Yeah, Sarah Fryer is with us. Let's head to our Bloomberg News Bureau in San Francisco. She's Bloomberg News Big Tech Team Leader. She's also author of No Filter, the Inside Story of Instagram. Sarah, Sarah, what exactly happened and why are there still problems? Well, when a large chunk of the Internet is reliant on one service, there are all these cascading effects, right? They said there was an issue in a database that was loading incorrectly. And that just had this domino effect for a large portion of the Internet. A third of cloud computing services are on Amazon. So when something is fixed, and they do say it is fixed now, it does take a while for all of those errors to resolve.
4:00Carol Massar:That is something that people will still feel the effects of for a little while. But it's so funny that you said the stock is going up. I mean, this is a moment where you realize how crucial Amazon is in our web infrastructure and our governments and so much about our lives. So it is a sign of their power, if nothing else. But is it also a sign of our reliance on one, two or three really large companies? If an outage at a single company can disrupt such a diverse array of services that so many people rely on. I mean, we were kind of joking about Netflix and the Ring camera, but, you know, government agencies are experiencing outages as a result of this.
4:44There are issues with dispatching taxis, for example, in some cities right now as a result of this. What does it say about our reliance on single pieces of technology?
4:56Carol Massar:My train to work was late this morning. It was like only one track was working. And I was like, oh, is this related to the Amazon outage? Like, I just kind of assumed, I don't think it was, but I, it is, it is such a good, good reminder of how, how that concentration of power is a, is a threat to, to things getting done in an economy. You remember CrowdStrike last year went out and planes were grounded and, you know, so many things stopped working. That was that was a huge cost, billions of costs to the global economy when that happened. So I think that there is there's really something to be said for the the threat of this kind of problem.
5:42Carol Massar:And it's probably a cue to, you know, the hackers of the world that this is this is a vulnerability. Right. That's why it's so important for these companies to have really fast response, quickly pinpointing the problem when something goes down. One issue that may be in our future. Right. As more code is written by AI, when when big services like this go down, will the engineers know where the problem is? and if it was written by a line of code that they didn't actually write. So I think that that's sort of like when you think about risk to these kinds of outages in the future, you have to think about from the very beginning when you're building the system, how safe is the system as it grows and as more services become dependent on it?
6:34Carol Massar:Yeah, great. Happy Monday, everybody. Hope your Netflix works tonight, Carol. I hope so. You got to stop refreshing it from the studio computer, okay? It actually came back on. Maybe it's blocked at work, and that's what it is. You shouldn't be watching it here. Binging. No, this was last night. We did get it finally on, and we were able to finish binging a certain series. Okay. I'm not even going to ask. Don't ask. Don't ask. Sarah Fryer, thank you so much. Bloomberg News, big tech team leader, author of No Filter, the inside story of Instagram. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.
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10:30Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube.
10:38Carol Massar:From one mag seven to another we go. Apple shares hitting their first record of 2025 after Loop Capital upgraded the stock to buy from hold, becoming the latest firm to cite positive iPhone demand trends. And then, Tim, we heard about Apple's latest generation of iPhones. They seem to be selling well. Yeah, off to a faster start than usual. Its most basic models surging in popularity with our Monday Apple Roundup. Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Tech, Mark Gurman, is with us. He's in the Bloomberg News LA Bureau. Mark, I want to start with the stock because it does seem like the optimism that we're seeing with the trade with Apple is giving some momentum to other companies out there, certainly lifting the major indexes.
11:19What's your view on Apple hitting its first new record of the year? Yeah, a couple things to note. One, this is old news. We've known for several weeks now that the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max have been a hit. We've known for some time now that the base-level iPhone is a hit. They made major changes on that consumer model. You have the faster refresh display, the better cameras, the larger screen size, etc., etc. The Pro models first redesigned in half a decade. Got that orange color, which I happen to like. They're doing very well. Second thing I'll say is I just continue to find it fascinating.
11:59I know I've been in this space for a decade now in the financial news space that a firm can come out. They could say, we predict that the stock price is going to X, Y, Z, and then the stock follows, right? Stock goes up. Anyone could just shout out and say, I think the price is going to that and see what happens. Right. So these are predictions. They're not set in stone. And there's really no way to know how the stock is going to go one way or another. We don't know what the different ramifications are, different political policies and what can happen in the world than drop of a dime. Right. So it's really a coin flip to know where this stock price is going to go or really the stock price for any company.
12:41So that's my take in two cents on that. I just think it's worth pointing out because I don't think Mark would do this himself, but oftentimes when Mark does report news that nobody knows, it does move Apple's stock price. It's not just the analysts who do that, but Mark's reporting often does that.
12:54Carol Massar:You know, I was going to come back at you, Mark, because, you know, we do have with this call out from Loop Capital that not everyone is sure that that early momentum for the iPhone justifies Apple's valuation that's out there. Shares trading at more than 32 times estimated earnings, well above their 10-year average of 22 times. You are not a financial analyst, but your reporting does move the share price. But you do know what's coming in terms of product services. Fundamentally. Well, they all use my reporting to make their reports. There we go. I like it. What do you say about those that are concerned about valuations?
13:27Carol Massar:Again, you're not a financial analyst. I'm not asking you to give me a buy, sell, or hold, or whatever. But you understand kind of what's coming at us from the company. There are drivers out there, right? I think I can give you a pretty good idea, actually, if you should buy, hold, or sell. But, you know, I won't give that black and white. But I will tell you that the product pipeline that they have is phenomenal. I think the foldable iPhone coming at the end of next year is going to raise ASPs quite significantly. I think you're going from a device right now, a pro model that costs around$1 ,000, you're going to see phones starting at$2 ,000 from Apple at the end of next year.
14:06And I think that's going to do wonders for ASPs and overall revenue. They're going to expand the product portfolio, sort of that other product segment, with the new slate of smart home devices. They're going to compete with Ring, their parent company, Amazon. They're going to compete with Google, Ecobee, and a bunch of other companies in the smart home space with this new smart home display coming in March. they're going to come out in the following year in 2027 with a robotic smart home display this is actually a very popular product category right now it's it's it's growing and it's becoming increasingly popular i should say in china tabletop robots so if you're a smart home user or robotics fan this is something that i think is going to be fairly compelling you've got a foldable 18 inch ipad in the pipeline for before the end of the decade you've got multiple different variations of smart glasses.
15:02So in terms of hardware, you're going to see a pretty rapid and broad expansion of the hardware lineup. You have the new Siri coming out this spring. Then you have another update to Siri coming at the end of next year. And then another update to coming the year after, trying to get something closer to ChatGPT. They're looking at a bunch of acquisitions. So we're on a very solid path in terms of Apple right now. A$2 ,000 iPhone. You take your bet based on that. Okay. Okay. So a$2 ,000 iPhone, Mark, I think would make a lot of people balk at just the list price there, that headline price. What does Apple need to do or what do carriers around the world need to do to make that more digestible, to break that up so people actually spend the money but don't realize they're spending it?
15:46Yeah, I think that issue has been solved with installment plans from Apple on their credit card in the US. I think it's also been solved by the carriers in terms of their trade-in promotions. and I think people understand that pricing is going up. One benefit I should say with the tariffs is it's given Apple some air cover. Even if they're not being hit by tariffs directly, it's given them some air cover to do price adjustments. And so I think the general consumer understands that because of tariffs, because of inflation, pricing is going up and so it gives them some air cover there. And they're not going to be the first at this point.
16:22When Apple came out with the$1 ,000 iPhone X in 2017, they really were the first to hit that massive, at the time pricing threshold. Now it's sort of whatever. And I think pretty soon the 2000 is going to be pretty whatever also.
16:33Carol Massar:You know, we've always talked about Apple and we're always so concerned about how much exposure they have to one big product and that is their phone. Are we still worried? Oh, yeah. I mean, at some point the iPhone is going to need to be not replaced, right, but succeeded, right, with the iPhone still sticking around. It's kind of like everyone thought the laptop was going to die because of the iPad. And then everyone thought, you know, maybe the Apple Watch would cannibalize some things. The only real cannibalization that we've ever seen in the history of Apple, in my viewpoint, is the iPod, where the iPhone killed the iPod.
17:12But nothing has killed the Mac. Nothing's going to kill the phone. You're always going to have that pocket device. You're going to see fewer people use the laptop because they've got the iPhone. You're going to maybe see fewer people use the iPhone because you have the smart glasses, but you're still going to probably want and own and buy all of them. Right. And so that's the tricky needle. Apple needs the thread. But I don't believe the phone is going away. Man, I miss that iPad. iPod shuffle.
17:38Carol Massar:Wasn't some parents giving them to their kids so that they didn't have to have a phone, but they could play around with music or something. I thought I saw some story. I don't know. Tim's looking at me like I'm crazy. Cray cray. Mark Gurman, Bloomberg News, band together for global consumer tech. Apple, now a$3.9 trillion market cap company. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Or watch us live on YouTube. Polls show Democrats are more disillusioned than they've been in decades.
18:13Sped up with aging, feckless leaders frustrated by a party adrift and unsure who their next standard bearer should be. but yearning for someone to take on Trump. So write Josh Green and Eliu Kammesher for Bloomberg Businessweek. California Governor Gavin Newsom has leaped into the breach. He's armed with a podcast, a ballot measure, and tweets. Gavin Newsom is spoiling for a fight with the president.
18:37Carol Massar:He is indeed. It is the cover of the new issue of Bloomberg Businessweek out on newsstands, now online and on the Bloomberg Terminal. Bloomberg Businessweek national correspondent Josh Green is the lead author of the profile of the governor. Josh is also the author of several books, including the number one New York Times bestseller, Devil's Bargain, Steve Bannon, Donald Trump, and the Storming of the Presidency. He joins us, Josh, from Washington, D.C. Josh, great to have you here with us. I mean, Gavin Newsom, he went from one of his lowest political points earlier this year as deadly fires burned in Southern California to now being a potential leader of the Democratic Party.
19:12Carol Massar:That seems quite a turn. How did this happen? And how dark was it for him? Well, yeah, as you guys said in that nice intro, he was our cover story, our cover profile this week. Went out to Sacramento, spent some time with him, talked to him. For a lot of people nationally, I think outside California, the last time they really keyed in and focused on Governor Newsom was back in January during the wildfires. Things were out of control. Trump, who was the new president, was sort of insulting him, tweeting negative things about him. And so, you know, he told us that was really the low point, I think, of his governorship.
19:45But what's interesting is that over the last couple of months, partly due to some things that Trump has done, Newsom has reemerged on the national stage as perhaps the most important Democrat right now because he is in the middle of leading a ballot initiative that would create as many as five new Democratic House districts. And Democrats nationally are pretty much without power. They don't control the White House. They don't control either house of Congress. But they're very much hoping to win back the House next November. And so Newsom, by dint of his ability to kind of run the table in California, get this initiative on the ballot, has suddenly become important in preserving Democrats' chance to win back some shred of power to confront Donald Trump with next November.
20:31And, of course, that would vault Newsom himself into an even more prominent role as Democrats look for somebody to lead the party in 2028 and out of the Trump era. Does that proposition have widespread support in California right now? I mean, former governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has spoken out recently against it. What did you find in your reporting? Yeah, it's not clear that it does. I mean, what's going on, just to kind of clue in viewers, is that Trump and Republicans have been very aggressive about deciding to redraw or try and redraw congressional districts in red states across the country as a way of kind of putting their thumb on the scale in midterm elections in a way that would help Republicans withstand what I think most people expect to be an electoral backlash.
21:13So the fear for Democrats is that Republicans essentially rewrite the rules and take control or keep control of the House of Representatives that they think they ought to be able to win. And so Newsom's value to the parties that he's been able to kind of come in and I think offset if this ballot referendum wins. But it's not clear that it's winning by a lot. The latest poll I've seen has it at about 50 percent in favor, about 35, 36 percent opposed and the rest undecided. So it really could still swing either way. And as you said, there have been prominent Republicans like former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger who have come out and said, no, we don't want to do this.
21:51We don't want to create these these Democratic districts. And so we'll see. But I think the expectation among the experts that I've spoken to is that this probably will prevail. And if it does, Democrats nationally, I think, are going to breathe a big sigh of relief.
22:05Carol Massar:Josh, we want to dig more into this profile piece of Gavin Newsom. But I just want to on this referendum, this ballot referendum, how important is it to Newsom specifically? How important is it to really Democrats more broadly as we all are kind of looking at the upcoming midterms and what it means and what it says about President Trump's administration? Yeah, it's a great question. The answer is it's really important to both of them. I just explained on kind of the national Democratic side why it's important. But for Newsom himself, I think it's especially important because, you know, he is somebody who has long been thought to have presidential ambitions.
Read the full transcript
22:39Democrats are obviously looking for a new leader in 2028. But talking to people around Washington, around the country in Democratic circles, there could be literally dozens of people running. And so if this ballot referendum does pass, it will be a real validating credential for Newsom. He's one of the rare Democrats right now who is in a position of power. And if he's able to lead his party to victory on this ballot initiative and help Democrats win back the House of Representatives in 2026, he can go out and say, look, I'm out here. I'm fighting Trump. I'm doing things. I'm helping the Democratic Party.
23:15And that's just not something that a lot of other elected Democrats can say right now. And I do stay with us more. A lot of business. We've got a lot of national attention. And Newsom himself, as I mentioned, as we mentioned at some length in the profile, has spent a lot of time trying to raise his profile online, doing everything from YouTube to Twitch to Twitter to X to try and raise his visibility. So I think a win on this ballot initiative would really help him in that regard.
23:38Carol Massar:I always think about COVID and how much he became so prominent. And we covered certainly everything he did during COVID and what was going on in the state. But he really became a national figure, it felt like. Especially during that visit to the French Laundry, as Josh points out. In his piece. What did he call that in his podcast, Josh? He quoted in the piece? I think he said it was like his most boneheaded move he made as governor. And not a lot of people would disagree with that. But, you know, he is prone to the occasional scandal. So that's part of the excitement of following Governor Gavin Newsom.
24:07Does a lot of exciting things, both for good and for bad. So let's talk about that a little bit. As a Californian, I followed Gavin Newsom for decades at this point. I mean, one thing that just always surprises me, though, is is where he was and who he was with early on in his political life. I mean, there's the famous photo shoot. Was it Annie Leibovitz with Kimberly Guilfoyle, his former wife, who is now, you know, she was linked to one of the Trump sons romantically. She's now the ambassador to Greece. What is his political history? You dive in here. There's connections to the Getty family.
24:40You really go really far back generations, actually. Yeah, I mean, he's had this fascinating life. You know, his father and grandfather were kind of big time political fixers in San Francisco, which gave him entree into the kind of wealthy world of San Francisco politics and business. While at the same time, you know, his mom, after his parents divorced, was a single mom who worked three jobs. So he kind of really grew up with a foot in both worlds. I think he's always been drawn to the camera as a politician. As you said, there's a famous Vanity Fair cover shoot back when he was married to Kimberly Guilfoyle.
25:13He managed to be a very high-profile mayor of San Francisco, conducting or allowing gay marriages back before the Supreme Court had allowed that, first got him on the national stage. But he's also a good-looking, telegenic guy who really wants to have his profile out there and has a lot of political talent. I think that the challenge for Newsom as governor of California, and we get into this in the piece a little bit, is that there's a lot not to like about California right now. At a time when, you know, Americans are more and more concerned with inflation and the high cost of living. California has sky high home prices.
25:47It sort of struggles with a lot of the things that Americans struggle with generally, whether it's high gas prices, high unemployment, homelessness. So all of these things are subjects that Newsom and Businessweek spoke about, talked about and tried to kind of war game out of the piece, whether this is something that he can overcome. And as Newsom himself said, too, he's got a real pitch, I think, for Democrats nationally, which is that California is this engine of dynamism, whether it's tech or AI or business, and really conducts itself in a way that I think Newsom would describe as the polar opposite of the way Donald Trump runs the U.S.
26:25economy with a focus on kind of industrial nostalgia. And looking back, Newsom is very much a California guy, almost seems like a venture capitalist at times, kind of pitching his state. And I think it's going to be interesting to see whether Democratic voters connect with that and decide this is the guy that they want leading them forward.
26:40Carol Massar:Josh, do Democratic voters also connect with the way he's begun using social media, kind of playing President Trump at his own game with AI generated content and caps and so on and so forth? You single this out, certainly in the story. Does that resonate? Is that what Democrats want? Yeah, to me, this is the most interesting part of the profile is, you know, a couple of months ago, Newsom turned the governor's Twitter feed into this kind of mockery of Donald Trump and the way he comports himself on social media with these all caps tweets kind of mocking and insulting him. And, you know, AI generated images of Trump eating McDonald's burgers, kind of stuffing his face.
27:17And it was basically kind of meant to get down in the mud with Trump. And it's something that's caused a ton of attention, a ton of engagement. A lot of Democratic voters are seeing this and engaging with this online. I know in my own life, people, relatives of mine are not particularly political, would have no reason to be interested in Gavin Newsom or suddenly asking me about him because of his wild social media persona. So in an intention getting sense, I think it's helped him. And whether or not this helps him like win votes in purple swing states three years from now, I'm still a little bit skeptical about that.
27:52But, you know, partly the race right now, if you're a Democrat, is the race for eyeballs and attention. And there's no question that Newsom is doing that kind of more aggressively and in a more interesting way than any other Democrat on the scene right now. Is it a risk politically for the constituents in California? Karen Bass, the mayor of Los Angeles, spoke at Bloomberg Screen Time earlier this month, and she talked about collaborating with President Trump in the wake of the disastrous wildfires. If there is another big natural disaster in California before Gavin Newsom's term is up, does he have to go begging to President Trump?
28:25And President Trump says, no, you've made a mockery of me. Yeah, I mean, it's a good question. I mean, one of the things we talked about with Newsom in this piece is that he essentially, you know, Trump had kind of written him off back in January before he'd even taken office. He had kind of turned on Newsom and Newsom and said, you know, in the past they'd had a good working relationship back in the 2018 Paradise fires in California. He thought he thought Trump had been pretty helpful, but this time around he wasn't. And Newsom had to kind of force his way into Trump's sphere and orbit in order to get some of the help that California needed.
28:56I think it does run a risk when you kind of intentionally mock and insult someone, especially as a Democratic governor. If you need to then turn around and ask that president for help, it could be problematic. On the other hand, Trump as president has pursued a scorched earth policy against just about every Democrat, every blue state in every blue city that I can think of, regardless of whether or not the mayors and governors of those states have insulted him personally and gratuitously the way Governor Newsom has. I'm not sure in the end it'll make much of a difference, but it'll certainly be something to watch if there is another big national disaster in California that requires federal help.
29:31Carol Massar:Fascinating stuff. I wish we had another 15, 20 minutes. Josh with you. That's always the case. Josh Green, national correspondent, Bloomberg Business Week. This is the cover story of the issue, new issue at Bloomberg Business Week. Find it on newsstands. It is on the Bloomberg and at Bloomberg.com. His profile, so much detail.
30:04from our flagship New York station. Just say, Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130. Just worth repeating, shares of Zions right now up by about 3.9%, bouncing around, Carol, in the after hours, but steadily in the green just after reporting those results.
30:22Carol Massar:Yeah, it was rallying in today's session ahead of earnings. Keep in mind, it lost about 5 % for the week overall, but we've seen a two-day rally, and it looks like the rally might continue into a third day. Let's get to it. Herman Chan follows the regional banks, including Zions Bancorp. He's senior analyst for U.S. regional banks here at Bloomberg Intelligence, and he's here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. As you reminded us, I messaged him like, wait a minute, what did they say last week? They talked about the credit losses, right? That's the big number we focus on. So we had that already out there.
30:51Carol Massar:What else did we get from the quarter that might be of note? Sir, the big takeaway is that outside of the 50 million charge off that we just talked about, there was really no credit concerns at all. They only posted 6 million charge-offs, or about 4 basis points on average loans, outside of the issue that they flagged last week. Credit's benign. We're not seeing any cracks within the credit quality. Everything's really good. Your view, idiosyncratic, not systemic? I would say these are one-off. I was told in radio not to say idiosyncratic. Wait, who said that? John Taku did. John? John gets up so early he's asleep right now, so it means you can say whatever you want about John Tucker.
31:35Sounds good.
31:35Carol Massar:So we don't see any idiosyncratic issues. Is it because John doesn't know what idiosyncratic means? Maybe he just heard it too many times. Did he think you said idiot and he got upset or something? I don't know. We're talking with Herman Chan of our Bloomberg Intelligence team. I want to bring David George also into this conversation. Senior research analyst at Baird. He joins us from Nashville, Tennessee. Last week, he upgraded Zions to outperform from neutral, saying the drop in market cap of the more than a billion dollars over that 50 million charge off was excessive. There was that 24-hour period where we're getting a little concerned that it was regional bank scare 2.0.
32:11Carol Massar:David, come on in. We're here with Herman Chan of our BI team. Earnings out. Anything new that came to light for you here? Hey, Carol. Good afternoon. The earnings, as Herman kind of noted, the earnings and taking kind of a cursory look at them, look pretty good. Despite that$50 million charge, they earned over$220 million. And their pre-provisioned net revenue, which is kind of a key foundation that we like to think about as it relates to just the earnings power of the banking industry, was better than expected. So the core business momentum at Zion's is actually quite good. And I think the market is going to like these numbers.
32:51And as Herman mentioned, this does not seem to be a systemic issue. I think these numbers this afternoon corroborated that. And I think it was a huge overreaction in the stock last week. And we continue to like it. David, you have a$65 price target on the stock. You have an outperform recommendation. As Carol mentioned, you upgraded it to outperform from neutral just last week. Would you raise your price target based on what you saw today it seems like you could be doing a victory lap right now um i'm not one this this is too hard of a business tim to spike the ball um so i'm not really in that uh i've been doing it too long and have a lot of scars but um the price target thing is something that we constantly evaluate i don't think i'm allowed to tell you uh what i'm going to do with it but just suffice it to say that the quarter is good um and we feel pretty good about the the fundamentals at zions And the risk reward tradeoff and the valuation of Zonich, you know, last Thursday after the bell, I think it got it.
33:56I think it was 47 when we upgraded it. It got down, I think, seven and a half times earnings and five times pre-provision earnings. And that's that's about as low as these tend to get absent a really, really nasty recession. So I think it was just really a lesson in overreaction and kind of sentiment overweighing the numbers in this particular case.
34:17Carol Massar:Yeah, stock was down about 13 % on Thursday, October 16th, and bouncing back about 6 % on Friday, and then another 4.6 % today, and then we're seeing it up in the aftermarket. You know, Herman, one of the things that we were all talking about is, you know, what does this mean for the regional banking sector overall? I'm looking at the sector was down about 1.9 % last week overall over concerns about credit, specifically when it comes to the regional banks. It was up about 2.5 % today. Right, right. So this is sort of the tail end of earnings for us. And last week we had a slew of earnings. And outside of one issue that was already flagged by Fifth Third, credit was really strong across the board.
35:00We haven't seen really any cracks from non-performers, criticized loans, those sort of early warning signs. So I do think that these one-off issues are digestible and not really reflective of anything systemic across the board. Yeah, David, come on back in here. And I'm curious if you agree with that. And maybe we can kind of broaden the conversation, too, and include private credit, which isn't necessarily in the purview of a lot of analysts because it's exactly what it is, private credit. But I'm curious if you see challenges in private credit affecting regionals. Yeah. So I think that's a two-part question.
35:40So I'll try and do it one piece at a time. So I think what Herman said is correct. If you just look at the data, I think, and this is pretty much the tail end of earnings season, the cap one comes after the bell tomorrow night. But I think 75 % of the banks we cover had lower levels of non-performing loans sequentially. And just from a cyclical perspective, we're pretty much close to an all-time low as it relates to problem loan. So on private credit, we could have an entire show on that. From my perspective, the growth in private credit is very notable in the banking industry. Any time in my experience of the last 25 years, when you have outsized growth is when you can have problems.
36:29And And this is an asset class that has not been through a sustained recession. So my concern as it relates to the banks and private credit is really an indirect, if I guess said differently, if we experience problems in the private credit market, my concern would be that liquidity starts to dry up. And there's kind of some knock-on effects of just liquidity coming out of the system having an indirect impact potentially on just corporate borrowers broadly. It's not something that I think there would be meaningful direct exposure. But it's just a situation where when liquidity slows, that will have an impact on the borrowers within the private credit universe.
37:16And to the extent they have issues, they could have customers that are in the traditional bank market. So it's an indirect impact, something that we're clearly very vigilant on, Tim, as it relates to just thinking about credit risk and so forth. But I think it's an indirect risk rather than a direct one. Hi, David. This is Herman Chan. Just a quick question for you in terms of how you, when you talk to management teams, how do you get comfortable with their underwriting, their monitoring of their credits, their due diligence? It seems like the overarching thread for Tricolor and the Scantor loans is that a lot of these assets were pledged to different places at the same time.
37:55So I'd love to get your thoughts on that. Yeah, it's an excellent question. I think ultimately bank investors are making qualitative assessments, Herman, on bank management teams' ability to assess credit risk, interest rate risk, and allocate capital. And these are obviously levered companies, much less levered than they used to be. But I think the annual CCAR and stress testing process has made this industry much better with respect to just understanding where the risks come from in terms of exposures and being able to quantify exposures to different industry levels and loan to values and collateral coverage and so forth.
38:36So I think it's like if you go to the doctor once a year and you know that you're going to have a very rigorous exam, I just think that the behavior coming out of that has really changed. And I think the biggest evidence of that emanates from the fact that bank loans are only really growing at 2 % to 3%. So it's hard for me to see when when market participants worry about bubbles on bank balance sheets. The growth isn't in there just to suggest where that bubble would come from as it relates to bank loan exposure directly. Well, just to follow on that, like I do wonder about all the money that's been sloshing around post pandemic.
39:18Carol Massar:You know, we just have a massive bill that was spent that was passed by Congress to that. There's going to be more money coming into the system. But there has been a fair amount of money. Are we silly to think that there's going to be some kind of bubble and that there is going to be some financial and bank exposure to it? No, I don't think at all. I think it's just important to to everything. Every question like this, Carol, is is just is very contextual. And it all depends on the context of where stocks are trading, what is priced into them, what isn't priced into them. And I think it's fair to say that asset prices are elevated, both private and public.
40:00And if there is any semblance or any mean reversion or a 20 % to 40 % haircut in asset prices, that is going to leave a mark on the banking industry, absolutely. But it's one of those things that it's going to take time. And banks benefit from time in the form of just these quarterly pre-provision earnings that I mentioned. That is essentially the lever that this industry has to pay for credit issues. And rest assured, these companies are very vigilant as it relates to credit risk. They've got very extensive risk and credit department functions. That's all they do every day is think about where their risks are and where their losses could be.
40:45And, you know, as it relates to Zion, say 12 basis points of losses, that means that they're right 99.9 % of the time. And I think that the industry deserves some credit, pardon the pun, for how well they've managed credit risk since the GFC.
41:00Carol Massar:All right. Going to leave it on that note. Guys, thank you so much. Gentlemen, so appreciate that. David George, senior research analyst over at Baird. And, of course, our own Herman Chan, who covers the regional banking sector. He's senior analyst for U.S. regional banks here at our Bloomberg Intelligence team. Zion's up about 2.6 % here in the aftermarket after reporting its latest quarterly update. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this. Support for the show comes from public.com. If you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions, buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge.
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44:56Carol Massar:Check out, we heard Alexis talking about this, rare earth and critical mineral stocks. They have certainly been on the move. Rising as William Blair analyst Neil Dingman initiates the companies as outperform as he sees the government potentially taking a stake in them. Among the stock's name, United States Antimony. With William Blair's analysts seeing the U.S. government taking a notable stake in the company as the U.S.'s only Antimony producer. Shares of U.S. Antimony, by the way, are up nearly 565 % year-to-date. Yes, you heard that right. With about 14 % of the flow chart. We're seeing these stocks on the move today.
45:30Back with us once again for the first time since August is Gary Evans, chairman and CEO of United States Antimony Corp. More than$1.6 billion market cap mining milling company refines and sells antimony products. He joins us from the Bloomberg News Dallas Bureau. So the analyst at William Blair out saying that the U.S. government could take a notable stake in the company is the only U.S. antimony producer. Gary, do you see the U.S. government taking a stake in the company? Well, it's something we don't, you know, stay up at night worried about. We've been very fortunate in that the U.S. government has given us an incredible contract.
46:09This is the DLA, which is the Defense Logistics Division of the Department of Defense. We won a$245 million sole source contract about a month ago. And so we're working hard to fulfill that contract. And what that is, is antimony ingots that's used for our defense to hold and stockpile for future wars. So can you fulfill that with the capital structure that you have right now? Do you need more money in order to fulfill this? No. Fortunately, we've raised over the last month, month and a half, about$100 million of capital. So we're sitting on a lot of cash. We have no debt. We actually have revenues, cash flow, EBITDA, and net income, which is unusual for a small mining company.
46:59We did announce, though, on Sunday, yesterday, of our attempted takeover of a company in Australia, which is a large antimony as well as gold producer. Larvado Resources. Some new mines starting. Exactly. So what that does for us is it adds additional value. In fact, with our reserves and Lervato reserves, we'd be in the top five of the world, which is something I think both the Australian government and the U.S. government really would like to see.
47:29Carol Massar:Yeah, and I just want to dig a little bit deeper. What kind of tonnage of antimony would this be in terms of this deal that you're making with Lervato? Well, you've got to understand Lervato is just a miner. They do not do the refining end, which is what we do. So we have a smelter in Thompson Falls, Montana, and we have one in Madero, Mexico. So the one in Montana is being expanded significantly, five times greater than what we currently produce. That expansion will be done in our first week of January. The smelter in Mexico, we could expand that probably five to six times as well. So what this resource that Lervata has, we can bring to our smelters and make a finished product, not only for the government, but we make products for seven other customers.
48:18People don't realize that antimony is used in many, many different things, and especially with the new AI technology going on, we make fire retardants for roofing materials, which all these data centers require. And then we make typically most electrical cords to keep them from catching fire.
48:35Carol Massar:Wait, so, okay, so it sounds like important. And I'm just curious how much you guys are paying. Can you share anything in terms of this company that you're buying? how much yeah yeah yeah so that we did make an offer it's a we already own 10 of the company so over the last 30 days we've been quietly acquiring shares a company we've been looking at for nine ten months and we wanted to wait to the appropriate time so we bought stock we get we own 10 we announced that we're required by the australian government to do so and then we made an offer to the management of the company. And the offer is basically, we will give them six shares for every 100 shares of their stock.
49:18So if you looked at the valuation, it's a 400 plus million dollar transaction.
49:24Carol Massar:Okay, good to know. I want to go back though, to what Tim asked you, Gary, initially about William Blair's call. I mean, are you guys talking with the US government about them taking a notable stake in your company? Are you working on a deal? Is there anything going on right now? Well, obviously, those type of discussions, I can't really talk about. I will tell you, we've been working with the DOD on a grant. We've talked about that publicly. We're hopefully at the final stages of that. And I mentioned already the contract. So the timing of the transaction with Lovato, it couldn't be better. Obviously, the prime minister of Australia was meeting with President Trump today in the White House, and I'm pretty certain this deal was discussed.
50:14So anyway, I think that what we've got to do as Americans is realize that China has a hundred year plan, and we're not part of that plan. And we, as the largest antimony producer in the United States want to build those reserves and resources and not be dependent upon a country that is not doing things in our best interest. So it's not only antimony, we're involved in tungsten, we're involved in cobalt, as other rare earth companies are also moving into the space. So we're trying to step it up. And we think a collaboration between the United States and Australia is a great way to do it. You just said that you're pretty sure this was discussed between the two leaders today how are you so sure that was discussed uh general jack keen uh is uh on our board so does that help answer your question it does thank you okay i know carol had another
51:08Carol Massar:wait did they call you did they call you to talk even a little bit further about the possibility of this no no no no but i'm do you want if you look at what the discussions were about it was about critical minerals, it's about rare earths and a collaboration, and this is obviously what we're doing. Do you want the United States to take a position in your company? Not necessarily. Access to capital is not an issue for United States' antimony. We want to do what's best for our shareholders and what's best for the country. Right now, we think that we can accomplish those goals as an independent company without shareholder ownership.
51:49If the government comes to me and says, hey, we definitely want an ownership position, then that's a different story. You know, I'm not really in a position to talk about that at this point, but you can see the close alignment between the United States' antimony and the U.S. federal government, and it continues to strengthen. We talk to them almost every day about different things.
52:09Carol Massar:But do you feel like you need a U.S. investment to maybe, you know, I just feel like, Do the companies that get U.S. investments in the mineral space, if you will, have an advantage over those that don't? I'm not sure what the investment does as an advantage. If you need capital, that's one thing. We don't need capital. We have plenty of access to capital. As you noted when we first came on the air, we've had a tremendous run in our stock. And it's because we have access to antimony. We started mining our first antimony mine in Montana last week, brought seven loads of trucks down the mountain.
52:49So we are actively mining. We're the first fully integrated antimony company in the world outside of China. And we're happy about that. We think Lovata will definitely add to that equation.
53:00Carol Massar:Got to say, we never have enough time with you. This space is certainly on fire. Gary Evans, chairman and CEO of United States Antimony Corporation. Stock is up 15 % in today's session. This is Bloomberg. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
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Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Amazon Web Services, the world’s largest cloud provider, said issues continued to plague its operations after a widespread outage degraded services for a range of customers including government agencies, AI companies and financial platforms.
Hours after saying Monday that it had mostly recovered from the database network issue, AWS said some users were still struggling to connect with rented servers. In an update on its health dashboard, the company said multiple AWS services in the East Coast region had experienced network connectivity issues.“We continue to observe recovery across all AWS services,” the company said at 3:15 p.m. on Monday.
Amazon.com Inc.’s service underpins a large chunk of the internet, accounting for about a third of the cloud market. Downdetector tracked disruptions at hundreds of sites, including for financial services outfits Venmo and Robinhood Markets Inc., Apple Inc.’s Apple Music and Apple TV, software companies such as Zoom Communications Inc., Salesforce Inc. and Snowflake Inc., food services giants including McDonald’s Corp. and gaming companies like Epic Games Inc. Even Amazon’s own services, including Alexa and the Ring home security system, weren’t immune.
Today's show features:
- Bloomberg Big Tech team leader Sarah Frier on the AWS service disruption
- Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Tech Mark Gurman on Apple hitting its first record day of the year
Bloomberg Businessweek national correspondent Josh Green on his Businessweek profile of California Governor Gavin Newsom - Herman Chan, Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst & David George, senior research analyst at Baird on Zions earnings and regional banks
- Gary Evans, Chairman and CEO of United States Antimony Corp
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