Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - August 14th, 2026

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1:56economy, plus global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenevek on Bloomberg Radio. Hi, everyone. Welcome to the Bloomberg Business Week weekend podcast. Carol is on assignment this week. It was a busy week where geopolitical tensions certainly remained front and center. This is the standoff between the US and Iran just continued to rattle global shipping in the oil market. Meanwhile, the latest readings on CPI and PPI suggest that the impact of the energy price shock from the Iran war continued to fade in July, possibly giving the Fed more room to weigh inflation pressures as they meet in Jackson Hole just a little later this month.

2:39As always, check out the latest updates and coverage on the Bloomberg Terminal and at Bloomberg.com. This weekend, we're bringing you a special deep dive into the world of rare earths and critical minerals. It's a race that's been sparked recently by the White House's new multi-billion dollar push to wean the U.S. off supply chains that have been dominated by China. We do that with a great rotation of guests, including a full hour with Joe Doe. He's Bloomberg News' senior economic statecraft reporter who specializes in minerals and mining. Plus, we're joined by Gary Evans, the president and CEO of U.S.

3:10Antimony, who mentioned to us that he would be open to selling up to 20 percent of his company to the U.S. government. All that to come, we begin with the global landscape of the rare earths market one year after China's export restrictions on heavy rare earths and permanent magnets triggered rapid disruptions across the U.S., Canadian, and European defense and industrial supply chains. So we wanted to touch base with an expert on these materials and why they're continuing to play such a pivotal role. For that, we not only tapped into the expertise of Joe Doe, but we were joined by Gracelyn Baskarin, director of the Critical Mineral Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

3:46Also joining us this hour, Christina Kino, managing editor of the Markets Live blog on the Bloomberg Terminal. We're talking to both of you and our other guests today because, Joe, as you reminded us, it's been about a year since the U.S. kicked off that critical mineral statecraft agenda. There was that unprecedented$400 million equity investment in MP materials. I can't believe it's been a year since then. Here we are a year later. Is the U.S. any closer to weaning itself off of relying on foreign partners or adversaries for critical minerals and rare earths? Wow. I spend a lot of time writing about this, and one person I like to often ask this question to happens to be our current guest.

4:30Oh, perfect. Is that why you brought Gracelyn Basker into us? I'm hoping she might have some answers for us. All right, she's director of Critical Mineral Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Gracelyn, you join us from all over the world, and we're grateful for your time this afternoon and every afternoon that you do join us. Is the U.S. any closer to no longer relying on partners and adversaries for rare earths and critical minerals? First of all, thank you so much for having me and thank you for the phenomenal work Joe does. He is reliably also one of my sounding boards, so it's a mutually beneficial relationship.

5:01Now, when I think about this question, I mean, I think there's two things we need to split out. Are we moving closer? Yes, we're moving closer. And the scale of the investment, the capabilities that are starting to come online, when China imposed restrictions in April 2025, we didn't have heavy rare earth separation capabilities outside. But slowly, Malaysia came online. But one of the things we have to remember is that we still have a very long ramp to self-sufficiency. As you know, recently, the G7 put forth the goal of 60 percent, not being more than 60 percent reliant on a single country outside of the G7.

5:40That's a pretty ambitious target. Japan's been working on that goal for 16 years, and they are now approaching that 60 percent mark. So we're getting closer, but we still have a long road to go. You know, Gracelyn, we're 12 months removed since the USA Rare Earth, excuse me, getting them all mixed up, MP Materials announcement, which really brought a shock, I think, to the market, right, to investors, to companies to suddenly realize not only was this being talked about, but the government was there to make happen what you were just describing. I'm wondering with the president's summit, do we feel like making some of the comments that he did is more kind of reminding people that the government's there?

6:22Or do we feel like he was sending some other type of message? The number one message I took away from Roundtable with President Trump, which also saw Secretary of State Rubio, Interior Secretary Burgum, Commerce Secretary Lutnik, was that industrial policy is here and that the government is here to support companies working in our national interest. In addition to making substantial funding announcements, he talked about developing the next generation of workforce through federal dollars. He talked a lot about on-shoring those capabilities. So industrial policy, once a word that both the left and the right kind of frowned on, is being seen as vital to seeing American industry succeed.

7:05Yeah, I mean, very interesting, Gracelyn, that concept of onshoring, right? We've also heard about French shoring, which is another term that has come up in the discussion over rare earths. And, you know, do you think that a lot of these investments outside the U.S., is it ultimately more realistic than trying to build a fully domestic critical mineral supply chain? Absolutely. There is not a country on Earth, maybe with the exception of China, that has the geological resources, the financial capital and the technical know-how to do it alone. And this is where, at a time when it sometimes feels like American foreign policy now is America alone, critical minerals are an area from the very get-go that we have embraced international cooperation.

7:47And when you look at the rare earth supply chain alone over the course of the last year, you have seen substantial U.S. support be announced with the Japanese, the Australians, Saudi Arabia, Angola, Brazil. And so this is really a sign that the U.S. does not intend to go at it alone. And, you know, that partnership is going to be really crucial if we're going to reach that mine to manufactured goods supply chain in any reasonable time frame. You know, Gracelyn, I think in the first few months after the MP materials deal, there was a genuine concern in critical mineral circles that the U.S. was going to go it alone.

8:24It was clear by the end of 2025 that that was not the case. But as you look back on the past 12 months, what sticks out to you as maybe the most underwhelming part of the critical minerals policy we've seen so far from the administration or something you think they really need to improve on moving forward? I think one of the areas that's probably been the weakest are price floors. There is an acknowledgement that the problem we have today is not a political problem. It is an economic problem. It is how do we get projects outside of China to stay commercially viable? You saw a lot of discussion over the last year talking about instituting a price floor.

9:00But it's complicated, right? Because there's a principal problem that we can't seem to agree on even with our G7 counterparts, which is who pays for it. Is this a cost that the taxpayer bears or is it a cost that the person buying the automotive bears? And I can tell you, having spent a lot of time with our counterparts in places like Australia and the UK, that they feel much less inclined to put that burden on the taxpayer when those resources could be used for healthcare, education, housing policy, etc. So one of the principal challenges we are left with is how do we ensure that projects outside of China can compete and stay open at a time when a lot of these prices may be lower than cost of production?

9:45Is the answer ultimately a price floor? The answer is probably a more comprehensive toolkit. So when we look at what the U.S. government did with Linus in Malaysia, it was basically an offtake contract as opposed to a guaranteed price floor for everything they produce, it is we will buy X quantity at Y price, right? The same$110. So it's probably going to be a combination of procurement, public procurement, facilitating private procurement with American auto manufacturers. It's going to be ongoing support, particularly for processing facilities to cover the delta between where their operating costs are and what they need to be profitable.

10:25So I see it as probably being a comprehensive toolkit. I think the reality is when you look at 60 critical minerals, getting the U.S. government or even a coalition government to guarantee a price floor for everything is going to be fiscally very difficult, particularly when you look at the cost of the war in Iran. I was in Australia when a lot of the discussion centered around the additional financial support needed for fertilizer and energy and how that was going to potentially move resources away from critical minerals. So given the state of the world, expecting that to be a full balance sheet cost is difficult.

10:59So creative tools are going to be necessary. Yeah, that's a perfect segue for what I wanted to ask you, Gracelyn. And it's the idea that necessity is the mother of invention. So while these might be critical minerals right now, is there innovation happening with some of the products that these ultimately go into where they will not need as much or they will no longer need these minerals that are challenging to source? Absolutely. I mean, I would also add to that and say scarcity is a very powerful driver of innovation. If you go back and look at the 1970s oil embargo and what it did for energy innovation.

11:33Now, if we look at what the U.S. and our allies are doing, I think there's a couple things, right? So the first is recycling. How do we recycle our black mass? And the U.S., especially through the Department of Energy, has made significant investments in recycling to get some of these materials back out. We know how to recycle lithium. We know how to recycle copper. But rare earth permanent magnets are a little bit of a new area. So investing in innovation to recycle. The second one is investing to an innovation that uses less materials. And we see that to be true, for example, with BMW and a motor that doesn't need rare earths.

12:09And obviously, that is not a scaled technology yet. It's a nascent one, but one that has a lot of potential because that would be a big driver of demand. And the third thing I would say is we're getting a little bit more strategic with things like going back to our old tailings and recovering rare earths. So rare earths sit in our coal mines, they sit in gold mines, and we've mined that material out, but it's largely sitting in tailings. So we're looking to get that back out of it, not just in the US, but in our allied countries. And there is government financial support to getting out of that.

12:42So I always think, you know, again, America's strong suit is innovation, and we're already seeing that to create a less dependent future. That was Gracelyn Baskarin, director of the Critical Mineral Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Christine and Joe sticking around for the rest of the program. You're listening to Bloomberg Businessweek, coming up, selling a piece of the company to Uncle Sam. U.S. Antimony CEO Gary Evans floats a possible up to 20 percent stake to the U.S. government if the price is right. You know, if the government will give you certain additional incentives, say price floors or minimum contracts or other things that would assist your business, you can look at maybe not only just equity, but some warrants that are out of the money, other things that gives the government incentive.

13:28He joins us next as our weekend special on Critical Minerals continues. This is Bloomberg.

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16:01executives that was aimed at weaning the U.S. off supply chains that have just historically been dominated by China. The president was joined by executives from prominent companies, including Rio Tinto, BHP, MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, Energy Fuels, The Metals Company, and more. One of the people there was Gary Evans, chairman and CEO of U.S. Antimony, the publicly traded refiner, producer, and seller of Antimony products. He joined me alongside Nora Melinda, Bloomberg TV markets correspondent, who was filling in for Carol. I think more than anything else, we have an administration that very much recognizes the dire need of critical minerals for our country, for our industries in this country, and obviously our military.

16:44So the support that this administration has provided to the mining industry has been immense. And the real event on Friday at the State Department was a$100 million grant that the federal government is giving to universities and schools in order to train new engineers and geologists and the technical people that we need in this industry because we all are getting older. A lot of people retiring, and this industry has been in the doldrums for the better part of 30 years. And so having that kind of financial commitment to the schools, there were a lot of administrators there. For me, the big takeaway was some incredible contacts that we made at this forum.

17:34There were a lot of very influential people involved in the critical mental space, both from a banking finance area, as well as some of the administrators, like the Secretary of Interior was there, Secretary of State was there. And we were able to have one-on-one meetings with them about issues we might have. And so I think what I got, when I came away from that conference, realizing that if I need help, there's people I can call to get help. And that's very, very important, something we've never had. So take us into the specific conversations that you had. Who did you speak to from the administration, and what did you tell them that you needed?

18:09Well, I'll be specifically frank. The new Secretary of Interior, Doug Burgum, he and his assistant were there, and he stayed after the forum was over and was talking to people. And I went up to him. We have an issue in Alaska specifically related to the BLM, which is under his venue, and the Department of Transportation, which is not, but he has influence on. And it has to do with a new property we bought in Alaska in January. And we're just getting pushback and slowness from local officials, not understanding that that antimony that we're trying to bring out of this mine is needed by the federal government.

18:49We have a$245 million contract to fulfill the needs of the military. And we've got local people in Alaska holding things up. So I gave him the information. He took it down. He said, I'll be on it Monday. And I have no doubt he will be. So that's the kind of thing that, you know, we express to them. So when you think about these conversations that you're having and you think about the future of antimony, you're pretty optimistic, it sounds like, coming off of that. Anything other than that that you would say concrete that you are looking to see advancements on as it relates to relationships between your company and the U.S.

19:24federal government? Well, we won a$27 million grant last year, and then we won the$245 million contract. We've got, though, over$350 million of additional grant requests in to various departments of the federal government to assist us, not only in antimony but in tungsten and some other critical minerals we're involved in. And what I'm kind of hearing through the conversations is that the president really wants to go more from a grant, which is basically a gift to the companies, to more of an equity component. In other words, we'll give you X amount of dollars, but we also want a piece of your company.

20:04He talked at this forum about the success he's had with Intel, the success he's had with MP Materials. And so there was a new fellow that I met there actually from Dallas that is now kind of key at the White House and looking at these investments. I also heard very loud and clear they want to do bigger deals, 500 million minimum or bigger. And so we're looking at packaging some things. We're looking at, OK, we can step it up and look at bigger. So, OK, so it's one of the things that we're doing. So it raises the question, how much of your company would you be willing to sell to the U.S. government?

20:42Well, that all depends on how much money they're willing to give me. So, you know, we're a publicly traded company with a billion dollar market cap. So I have to look at it like any other investment. However, you know, if the government will give you certain additional incentives, say price floors or minimum contracts or other things that would assist your business, You can look at maybe not only just equity, but some warrants that are out of the money, other things that gives the government incentives. So we would look at it like any investment banking transaction. But, you know, if you'd asked me this six months ago, I'd say, well, no, I'd rather have the grant.

21:20Obviously, the grant is non-dilutive equity. But if you have in the government as a shareholder, I would prefer not over 20 percent would be fine. And broadening out just a bit, how quickly when we think about the U.S. domestically in terms of our critical mineral supply chain, how quickly do you think that we could actually push forward with those strategies, those plans? And is government support enough to make these projects economically viable? Well, what's made them much more valuable today is the price of all these critical minerals and rare earths has gone up dramatically. Why has that happened?

21:59China over the last 30 years has gone around the world and tied up all these critical metals. For Antimony, they own 85 % of worldwide reserves. For Tungsten, it's close to 90 % of worldwide reserves. We have sat and let our country stay behind the eight ball for 30 years while China has done this. So we're playing catch up, no doubt about that. And it's going to take time. We can't do it overnight. But having the regulations removed so that we can move quicker, you know, we've learned a lot from the past with regarding some environmental issues. We are very big environmentalists in our company.

22:34You know, when we dig up something, we try to bury it again, you know, within weeks, not years down the road. So we've gotten some kudos from a lot of the regulatory agencies that, hey, you guys are really doing a great job. And so I'm a big conservationist. I love to hunt. I love to fish. I don't want to leave what we do and ill repair. So we've made sure that we are the type of company that people will wish that we had come rather than somebody else. So, you know, that's very important. That was Gary Evans, chairman and CEO of U.S. Antimony. We should note we did speak to Gary just before the company released second quarter results, where it cut its full year outlook for its gross revenue amid lower antimony prices.

23:16The market cap of the company, as we went to press with this, was about$780 million. Well, somebody who is at least going into mining from a reporting perspective is Pauly Massen, a reporter for Bloomberg News. Pauly recently writing about how the president is rewriting corporate norms with this 211 mile Arctic road. The federal government granting a permit to build a road through the Alaskan wilderness in exchange. It gets part of a mining company. Polly, what is happening here with the road and sort of the economic statecraft part of this, which I think investors are becoming increasingly used to?

23:54It's funny to ask what is happening to the road. Well, right now, nothing, but soon potentially everything, right? This could completely alter the way of life there, which is that people go bush plane by bush plane from village to village. To build a road in this untouched wilderness would really strongly change the way of life there, but it would also really change the mining environment there. You're going from having extremely expensive expeditions to try to prospect in very costly helicopter rides to being able to drive in and, you know, really see what's going on there, see what could be mined there.

24:26And also once the mines are actually built and say about a decade to be able to just tuck, you know, get everything on tractor trailers and freight it out. That is a huge, huge difference. Right now we're at the very, very beginning stages of that, but allowing this road to potentially be built allows you to completely change the way that people live there and the way that mining is able to make money in Alaska. Now, Polly, one of the things that stood out from your story is the fact that the due diligence by the government in terms of gearing out the project was completed in less than 72 hours.